Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 147323 times)

Crafty_Dog

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Green Beret who fought in Ukraine
« Reply #1350 on: May 26, 2023, 04:56:25 AM »
Haven't watched this yet, but it sounds interesting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-LoQ_ND1oA

G M

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Crafty_Dog

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Crafty_Dog

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George Friedman: Considering Maskirovka
« Reply #1354 on: May 30, 2023, 05:18:54 AM »
May 30, 2023
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Considering Maskirovka
By: George Friedman

Soon after Josef Stalin signed a mutual defense pact with Adolf Hitler, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill said that Russia was a mystery wrapped in an enigma. Russian military planners were undoubtedly pleased by what they might have taken as praise. One of the foundations of their military doctrine is the principle of maskirovka, or the use of various deceptions and denials to mask their true intentions. Maskirovka doesn’t always work, but when it does, it can utterly transform a battle, even a war.

Trusting in the common perception of the state of the Russian military can be designed to be fatal. I have long wondered about the chaotic structure of Russian forces in Ukraine and about the amount of time and resources Russia devotes to secondary targets. It’s tempting to assume that Moscow is foundering or that it was fated to defeat, but the fact that maskirovka is embedded so deeply in the Russian military psyche makes it necessary to periodically rethink Russian plans and resources. These things are unknown by design, but what if it turns out that the Russian bungling is a ploy, its real force and intention hidden, waiting to strike? When thinking about the Russians, creating a model diametrically opposed to what you believe, and then taking it apart, is essential.

The current consensus is that Russia has lost the organization, resources or trained manpower necessary to do more than hold its ground or perhaps advance with very limited objectives. This view is based on command confusion in which the Russian armed forces are competing with the Wagner Group, rather than commanding it. It would explain the extended battle in Bakhmut – to say nothing of Russia’s general inability to cripple Ukrainian forces and penetrate deeper into Ukraine. Penetration and destruction are the essence of warfare. A divided chain of command could explain the failure, and the inability to repair it could easily lead an enemy to assume that a Russian victory is all but impossible.

Let’s assume for the sake of argument that Russia built the battle of Bakhmut to draw the Ukrainians forward into a more vulnerable position. A smashing defeat of Ukraine there would create a massive crisis in the Ukrainian command and stoke serious tensions with allies. If the disparity of force were sufficient, Russian forces might move decisively to Ukraine’s western border. The purpose of the battle, then, would be to convince Ukraine to carry out a broad attack in the hope of breaking Russia’s will. For Russia, the true goal would not be to end the battle quickly but to significantly weaken Ukraine’s defense of the heartland and to encourage forces planned for the offensive to form into large units. The next step would be massive airstrikes on the concentrations using drones. The key would be the generation of military targets for air attack, followed by a massive, decisive infantry attack into the heartland (the type Russia should have opened with).

To be sure, this scenario is difficult to take seriously. Even if it were all going according to script, the strategy would be compromised by the inability to field large numbers of trained fighters, to protect the transportation of rapid, surprise deployment, and to hide the concentration of forces from Western intelligence. (Doing so is difficult but not impossible. The U.S. and British succeeded at Normandy, and the Germans at the Ardennes, though detection capabilities in World War II were obviously more limited than they are now.)

The critical issue here is the timing of detection relative to the ability of Ukrainian forces to form an attack and disrupt Russian forces. Russian air defense would have to be limited to avoid hinting at a large concentration of other forces. And the infantry would have to move into Ukraine in battle-ready form. The process of moving forward and creating a unified force under coherent Russian command represents the key and most unlikely phase of the operation.

The complexity of the project at all levels convinces me that the Russian command is simply dysfunctional and highly vulnerable to Ukrainian action. If there’s a maskirovka ploy afoot it must have been executed by now. But there is no hint of it. It’s hard to see anything but weakness in the Russian force at the moment.


ccp

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1356 on: June 03, 2023, 07:10:00 AM »
UA missile launcher supposed to be in Ukraine is found at our own Southern border.

what a joke .

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/us-news/anti-tank-missile-launcher-bound-30140269

what was that song ; "dance, dance till we all drop "

for US politicians it is "spend, spend till we all drop"

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1357 on: June 03, 2023, 07:29:33 AM »
UA missile launcher supposed to be in Ukraine is found at our own Southern border.

what a joke .

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/us-news/anti-tank-missile-launcher-bound-30140269

what was that song ; "dance, dance till we all drop "

for US politicians it is "spend, spend till we all drop"

https://www.theburningplatform.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/FxnjUbwWIAARr7d.jpg



G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1358 on: June 03, 2023, 07:32:05 AM »
UA missile launcher supposed to be in Ukraine is found at our own Southern border.

what a joke .

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/us-news/anti-tank-missile-launcher-bound-30140269

what was that song ; "dance, dance till we all drop "

for US politicians it is "spend, spend till we all drop"

https://www.theburningplatform.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/FxnjUbwWIAARr7d.jpg





Crafty_Dog

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ccp

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report Ukraine had plans to blow Nordstream
« Reply #1360 on: June 06, 2023, 11:24:15 AM »
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-had-intelligence-ukrainian-plan-attack-nord-stream-pipeline-washington-post-2023-06-06/

Does Ukraine possess the ability to have done this w/o the US?

this part cracks me up :

****White House spokesperson John Kirby said on Monday that investigations into the Nord Stream attack were active.

"The last thing that we're going to want to do from this podium is get ahead of those investigations," Kirby said when asked about The Post's reporting on the matter.


me =>.  :roll: :roll: :roll:

Crafty_Dog

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Pravdas covering up Nazis?
« Reply #1361 on: June 06, 2023, 02:18:49 PM »
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/05/world/europe/nazi-symbols-ukraine.html

I am paywalled from this.  Could someone post it please?

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: The consequences of the Dam break
« Reply #1362 on: June 07, 2023, 04:38:51 AM »
Ukraine’s Dam Collapse Changes the Landscape and the War
The full extent of the damage will not be clear for many weeks.
By: Antonia Colibasanu
The long-feared destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam became a reality on Tuesday, flooding towns and villages downstream in southern Ukraine and forcing hasty evacuations. Built in 1956 as part of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, the dam created an 18 billion-cubic-meter reservoir that provided critical water supplies for the entire Crimean Peninsula as well as the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe. Both Russia, which occupies Crimea and the nuclear plant, and Ukraine have accused each other of destroying the dam. Either way, the event has important tactical and strategic implications, and it highlights the significance of the Dnieper River as a frontline in the war.

Consequences for Ukraine’s Offensive

The Dnieper begins in Russia and flows through Belarus before entering Ukraine, where until the war it served as a major commercial corridor and route to the Black Sea. Since Russia’s invasion, it has mostly served as an obstacle. Russian forces attacking from Crimea crossed the Dnieper early in the war and occupied the Kherson region, where the river forms a large delta. For almost the next nine months, the Russian army was stationed on both sides of the river in Kherson.

Russian Forces in Ukraine, as of June 5, 2023
(click to enlarge)

In November 2022, Ukraine liberated the urban western bank of Kherson and pushed the Russians across the Dnieper. In the process, the Antonivka road bridge and railway bridge were destroyed, severely limiting large troop movements across the river in the area and making it practically impossible for Russian forces to continue along the M14 highway to Odesa. Both sides mined their banks of the Dnieper over the ensuing months.

Strategic Infrastructure Near the Kakhovka Dam
(click to enlarge)

It is not hard to see why the Dnieper is so important, especially for the campaign in southern Ukraine. Russian offensive goals aside, Crimea is only about 80 kilometers (50 miles) away and looks potentially vulnerable. The stretch of the eastern bank that Russia holds in Kherson is not far from the mouth of the Dnieper, where the river narrows. To defend their position, Russian forces cut down trees, stationed snipers in houses along the river and established trenches and other fortifications.

Since the bursting of the Nova Kakhovka dam, many of those Russian fortifications are or will soon be under water. Ukrainian positions on the west bank are threatened as well, but not nearly to the same extent due to the higher elevation on their side. However, Russian mass evacuations in the run-up to Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive meant that few were present at the time of the incident. In addition, Crimea relied on the Kakhovka reservoir for potable water, but its supplies will dwindle now that the North Crimean Canal is no longer usable. On the positive side for Moscow, the deluge will significantly hamper any Ukrainian advance toward Crimea by land. It also greatly shortens Russian lines in one of its weaker defensive positions.

The military advantage of destroying the dam, according to Russian military bloggers, is that it makes any Ukrainian attempt to cross the Dnieper and march east much more difficult. Indeed, Western military sources say the Russians are "almost certainly" to blame, considering that a breach of this magnitude would require the pre-positioning of explosives and that the Russians have had control of the dam since the beginning of the war. However, blowing up the dam would also indicate Russian desperation. It would imply that Moscow lacks the capability to move its soldiers westward to reclaim the rest of Kherson.

Nuclear and Ecological Disaster

The dam’s destruction also creates additional problems for Kyiv. The country was already running low on electricity before it lost the Kakhovka hydroelectric station. In addition, the reservoir provided cooling water for the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Without enough water, the plant could suffer a meltdown. The facility’s Ukrainian operating company anticipates that the reservoir should provide enough water for now, but water levels are dropping by about 5 centimeters (2 inches) per hour, according to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. In the early morning, it was at approximately 16.4 meters. Below 12.7 meters it becomes impossible to pump into the plant’s cooling circuits, giving operators just days to find a solution. The IAEA chief said that there was no immediate risk but that it was essential that a cooling basin remain intact to provide enough water to cool the idled reactors. In the event of a meltdown, radioactive material could travel several hundred miles – well beyond Ukraine – depending on the material and the weather.

Aside from nuclear risks, the dam explosion will have other lasting effects for Ukraine. The Kakhovka reservoir supplied an enormous irrigation system that supported Ukrainian industrial and agricultural production. Before the war, about 80 percent of Ukraine’s production of vegetables and fruits relied on this irrigation network. Rebuilding this system could take decades and add incredible sums to Kyiv’s already daunting reconstruction bill.

Last but not least, wildlife around the Dnieper River will be devastated by the disruption of their sanctuary. According to Ukraine’s presidential office, the destruction of the dam caused 150 metric tons of oil to leak from the dam mechanism, and another 300 metric tons could escape. A total dam failure would wash away much of the river’s eastern bank, according to the Ukraine War Environmental Consequences Work Group, an association of activists and professionals documenting the war's environmental effects. It is also unknown what other contaminants may be in the floodwaters. The picture should become clearer over the next five to seven days, when the water level is expected to start dropping. The dam's destruction is changing the military geography in southern Ukraine. But its fallout will be even broader, posing dire prospects for Ukraine's socio-economic recovery in the long term, given the importance of the flooded area for the country’s agricultural production

G M

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Crafty_Dog

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Zeihan
« Reply #1364 on: June 08, 2023, 10:25:22 PM »


G M

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Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1367 on: June 10, 2023, 05:47:51 PM »
Devastating news if true.



Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1370 on: June 11, 2023, 05:18:38 AM »
Business Insider is on my mental list of suss sites, but it does appear to confirm the Uke losses.

I appreciate to Sonar21 blogger being clear that was he passing along is pure smoke, so though it sounds possible/plausible not much weight can be given to it.

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1371 on: June 11, 2023, 07:28:03 AM »
Business Insider is on my mental list of suss sites, but it does appear to confirm the Uke losses.

I appreciate to Sonar21 blogger being clear that was he passing along is pure smoke, so though it sounds possible/plausible not much weight can be given to it.

Biz Insider is Dick1 for business.


ccp

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1373 on: June 11, 2023, 07:58:15 AM »
this is a bottomless pit

 :roll:

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1374 on: June 11, 2023, 08:12:16 AM »
this is a bottomless pit

 :roll:

No, they'll move on to the next shiny object once Ukraine really collapses. Probably the next bioweapon release.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1375 on: June 11, 2023, 06:23:23 PM »
"Dick1" 

?

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1376 on: June 11, 2023, 06:30:17 PM »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1377 on: June 11, 2023, 07:37:54 PM »
Ah.





Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1382 on: June 13, 2023, 01:46:44 PM »
Though he makes some good points, Col. MacGregor has not impressed me the times I saw him on Tucker.  Not someone upon whom I would rely to make even handed assessments.



Crafty_Dog

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Crafty_Dog

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D1: daily update
« Reply #1386 on: June 22, 2023, 08:50:11 AM »
June 22, 2023   
         
Another bridge linking Ukraine to its Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula was attacked Thursday in what one Ukrainian official described as "a blow to the military logistics of the occupiers."

Location: Southern Kherson, bordering Crimea. Reuters reports Ukrainians know it as the Chonhar road bridge, and Russians call it the Chongar Bridge. "It is on a route used by the Russian military to move between Crimea and other parts of Ukraine under its control," the wire service reports.

Russian occupation officials say British-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles hit the bridge, and promised to repair the damage, which you can see here, "in the very near future." The Associated Press has a bit more, here.

Counteroffensive latest: It's still a tough slog and will likely remain that way for some time. Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenskyy seems to know this perhaps as well as anyone. This is partly why he spoke to the BBC Wednesday to encourage patience. "Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It's not. What's at stake is people's lives," he said.

There are, however, some indications that Russian forces are taking heavy losses in certain places where Ukrainian troops are concentrating their efforts. But Ukraine is facing significant resistance, too. "If Ukrainian forces sustain too much attrition, the counteroffensive could culminate early," said Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, writing Wednesday on Twitter. "But, if Russia sustains enough losses, it could create the conditions for further Ukrainian advances," he noted.

ccp

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1387 on: June 22, 2023, 09:44:00 AM »

blah blah blah...>2050


DougMacG

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G M

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Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1391 on: June 28, 2023, 07:11:10 AM »
Ummm , , , a bit simplistic perhaps?

There is a war going on , , ,

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1392 on: June 28, 2023, 07:14:27 AM »
Ummm , , , a bit simplistic perhaps?

There is a war going on , , ,

Will that be the excuse here in 2024?

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1393 on: June 28, 2023, 07:43:41 AM »
I'm making a distinct point here, which is that the meme was written in a manner oblivious to the obvious counter arguments.  Thus, is serves only to accentuate the collective militant understanding of one faction.  Yes, memes tend to do this, but ideally they have wit and humor as well (see cf. Alinsky)  That said, this one serves particularly little purpose.

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1394 on: June 28, 2023, 07:48:40 AM »
I'm making a distinct point here, which is that the meme was written in a manner oblivious to the obvious counter arguments.  Thus, is serves only to accentuate the collective militant understanding of one faction.  Yes, memes tend to do this, but ideally they have wit and humor as well (see cf. Alinsky)  That said, this one serves particularly little purpose.

I think it makes clear what exactly he is. Governments love "states of emergency" to violate rights. CocaineManGood is not morally different than VodkaManBad.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1395 on: June 28, 2023, 08:07:11 AM »
Who invaded whom here?

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1396 on: June 28, 2023, 09:49:16 AM »
Who invaded whom here?

NATO invaded for decades, against their word and the advice of many in the west.


Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1398 on: June 28, 2023, 01:09:52 PM »
"NATO invaded for decades"

Seriously dude?  Berlin Wall?  Hungary 1956? Czechslovakia 1968?  Poland 1980?  Recognize any of these?  As a basis for East Europe nations wanting the protection of being in NATO?

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1399 on: June 28, 2023, 01:46:37 PM »
"NATO invaded for decades"

Seriously dude?  Berlin Wall?  Hungary 1956? Czechslovakia 1968?  Poland 1980?  Recognize any of these?  As a basis for East Europe nations wanting the protection of being in NATO?

Soviet Union? Not the same as Russia, just as the GAE isn’t the America we grew up in.