Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 311652 times)

Body-by-Guinness

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VDH on Ukrainian Myths
« Reply #1750 on: March 07, 2025, 12:04:10 PM »
Hanson lays out why sundry myths about Ukraine are in fact grist for the cognitive dissonance mill:

https://www.rodmartin.org/p/five-ukrainian-fables

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1751 on: March 07, 2025, 02:19:26 PM »
That was great!

Crafty_Dog

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A POV on the Azov Battalions and Neo Nazi connections
« Reply #1752 on: March 08, 2025, 05:47:12 AM »
Shared with me by my Russian born American now Jewish friend whose Uke grandparents fled Hitler to Russia:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/after-murder-cartels-loom-over-mexicos-new-system-electing-judges-2025-03-06/

ccp

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DougMacG

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ccp

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Uranium map
« Reply #1756 on: March 08, 2025, 11:28:59 AM »
time to call in Parker Schnabel to the rescue  :-D

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1757 on: March 08, 2025, 03:00:29 PM »


ccp

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1759 on: March 09, 2025, 09:17:45 PM »
all the while Putin steps up the attacks on the ground

trapping Ukraine in a kind of pincer move one from Putin and one from Trump.

what could we have expected, but this, when Trump said he will end the war in "a day " (or something like that)

it had to be by removing all support from Ukraine to get Zelensky to give in to Putin because there was no other way around.


Crafty_Dog

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« Last Edit: March 10, 2025, 08:17:04 AM by Crafty_Dog »

ccp

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M Bartimlomo asks Trump if he is ok with Ukaine not surviving
« Reply #1762 on: March 10, 2025, 06:54:22 AM »
 :-o :-o :-o

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/international-relations/fox-s-maria-bartiromo-asks-donald-trump-if-he-s-comfortable-that-ukraine-may-not-survive/ar-AA1ABLF0

If I understand it correctly Europe is realizing they have arm more and do more.

Fine but I also read this will take yrs.


ccp

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1764 on: March 10, 2025, 08:15:44 AM »
This is turning into Trump's Afghanistan

Time will tell.

But Putin has no intention of folding. 


Crafty_Dog

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PP: Ukraine behind cyberattack on X?
« Reply #1766 on: March 11, 2025, 11:46:07 AM »


X cyberattack: On Monday, X owner Elon Musk acknowledged that the site had been hit with a "massive cyberattack." He explained, "We get attacked every day, but this was done with a lot of resources. Either a large, coordinated group and/or a country is involved. Tracing." Later, in an interview with Fox Business's Larry Kudlow, Musk said, "We're not sure exactly what happened, but there was a massive cyberattack to try to bring down the ecosystem with IP addresses originating in the Ukraine area." Since becoming part of Donald Trump's team, Musk's companies have increasingly been the target of nefarious actions.

ccp

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1767 on: March 11, 2025, 12:25:39 PM »
Let's hope Elon can stay the course.

We are lucky he is with us.

DougMacG

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1768 on: March 11, 2025, 01:20:24 PM »
I think the implication is that this came from within Ukraine, but not necessarily by the government of Ukraine. I don't think they want a war with us.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1769 on: March 11, 2025, 01:58:12 PM »
Plausible denialbility wink wink.

The Ukes have acted outside of Ukraine already-- e.g. against the Russians in Africa.


DougMacG

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Crafty_Dog

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ccp

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Putin yanking Trump's chain/ "DIME" warfare?
« Reply #1774 on: March 14, 2025, 02:10:10 PM »
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2025/03/14/russia-stalls-ceasefire-claims-it-sent-trump-additional-signals/

Someone was on I think Greg Kelly on last night and pointed that all the economic sanctions in the world has never worked against Russia - ever

When asked if that means we need to turn to military option he gave some rambling answer that was not an answer IMHO and said DIME:

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA561308.pdf

Body-by-Guinness

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Of Blind Squirrels, Acorns, & the Uncomprehending
« Reply #1775 on: March 14, 2025, 03:29:57 PM »
Coffee & Covid’s take on recent Ukraine developments. His take? Putin and Trump are negotiating via an oblivious press, with said press and many others too stupid to see it:

Every so often, we should pause to reflect on how different our world has become from that of our parents. Yesterday, literally the entire planet watched the three leaders involved in a world-shaking conflict separately trade back-and-forth public comments. And then corporate media made up wild, bias-projecting, interpretive fairy tales about what they said. One wonders how much truth our parents, deprived of real-time video, used to get in their morning news. Anyway, the Wall Street Journal ran its truth-flipped story under the sly headline, “Putin Rejects Immediate Cease-Fire in Ukraine.”

image.png
CLIP: Putin agrees with the general cease-fire framework but many questions remain (2:10).

You can hardly say he rejected the deal. He partially agreed— it was a deal half-full.

Looking prototypically bored —but at least wearing a suit— Russian President Vladimir Putin somnolently told frantic reporters that, “We agree with the proposals for the cease fire. But our position is based on the assumption that the cease-fire would lead to a long-term peace that removes the initial reasons for the crisis.” He then posed a long series of rhetorical questions.

For instance, Russia is currently rounding up defeated Ukrainian soldiers burrowed in the forests of its own Kursk territory. So under a cease-fire, what happens to them? Do they just walk out and regroup for another round, so Russia will have to defeat them again? Are they required to surrender? Or do they sit tight in their hidey-holes indefinitely?

Who exactly shall monitor this sprawling 600-mile contact line? Are those monitors ready to go right now? And, will the U.S. pause military aid during the cease-fire, or just use the lull to re-arm Ukraine?

Given these unanswered but critical questions, Putin reasonably said that Russia wants a cease-fire, a real one, but the current proposal is short of necessary details important to the Russians. Putin did not just leave it hanging; he proposed a call directly between himself and President Trump— omitting Kiev, which was a nod to the fact that everybody knows the Ukrainians are no longer calling the shots.

All that context was missing from the many corporate media articles. They all quoted cherry-picked parts of Putin’s answer. But none linked to the video of his actual comments, which was only about three minutes long. The Journal transformed the Russian president’s straightforward answer, which essentially said “okay, but we still have work to do, let’s talk” into a fake narrative of flat rejection.

For his unimportant part, Zelensky responded in a solo selfie-video, whining that President Putin was just faking it and was only trying to drag things out. In a wonderfully apt metaphor, Martial Law Administrator Zelensky was the only one of the three leaders to appear alone. Get it?

Corporate media completely missed the irony and credulously adopted Zelenksy’s take.

But President Trump got it. In answering a reporter’s question at the White House, Trump acknowledged that Putin had raised some good questions.

image 2.png
CLIP: President Trump says we’d like to see a cease-fire from Russia, acknowledges that issues remain (2:03).

In remarks with reporters, Trump allowed that a few thorny issues remain. “There’s a power plant involved; a very big power plant,” President Trump acknowledged, referring to the Zaporozhia nuclear facility— the largest in Europe, currently under Russian control. Mirroring Putin’s rhetorical questioning, he continued, “Who’s gonna get this and that? It’s not an easy process.”

Trump expressed partial agreement with Putin, saying, “You don’t want to waste time with a cease-fire if it’s not gonna mean anything.” And then he casually complained about the broken-record Ukrainians, saying with easygoing exasperation that “They discussed NATO and being in NATO, and everybody knows what the answer to that is.”

A reporter queried President Trump about Putin’s suggestion for that they talk. Unlike sour corporate media, Trump expressed optimism: “He did say that today, it was a very promising statement. He put out a very promising statement, but it wasn’t complete. But yeah, I’d love to meet with him or talk to him. Every day, people are getting killed.”

But Trump also consistently pressed for a quick agreement. Time is of the essence.

In other words, right under the noses of cross-eyed corporate media, who somehow manage to find the truth less often than blind squirrels find acorns, President Trump and President Putin are actually negotiating.

🚀 About 25 years ago (sigh), I “vacationed” in India (don’t ask). It was a fascinating excursion. Indians are world-class negotiators. Everything is up for haggling. A bottle of water? The vendor always demands more than the price on the label. If you play the game, you’ll walk away paying half.

But my real education came at the Taj Mahal. Stepping off the air-conditioned tour bus into a wall of sticky heat and acrid dust, I was instantly mobbed by a swarm of wild-eyed vendors hawking postcards, plastic trinkets, and knock-off Rolexes. They shouted prices over each other, thrusting their wares toward my hands, grinning like they already had me.

I learned fast: never ever say “no, thanks.” To an Indian street vendor, no, thanks is not a rejection—it’s an opening bid. If you say “no,” they’ll chase you around like a flock of squawking seagulls surrounding a terrified toddler holding a bag of sandwich bread.

The only real escape from the game of extended refusals is feigning boredom. No eye contact. No glancing at their wares, no hesitation. Just keep walking.

The point is that, in any negotiation, so long as the sides are still talking, they’re still bargaining. The moronic media missed it, but Trump didn’t: Putin’s request for a call wasn’t a rejection. It was an offer to dicker. Trump answered that he was open to it. Right now, neither leader is acting too eager. Both are coyly feigning mild interest, and are still communicating indirectly through cut-outs—namely, the clueless media.

It’s classic positional bargaining. He who offers first loses.

How did our media become so blind to how the world actually works? Are they really that dense? Or do they prefer narrative over reporting—missing the highest-stakes negotiation in modern history because it doesn’t fit the script? Media don’t see themselves as mere witnesses like the rest of us. They delusionally fancy themselves as the authors of events.

Fortunately, in this digital age, we can listen for ourselves. We don’t need the WSJ’s creative writing. We can ignore corporate media like an Indian street vendor—no eye contact, no engagement. Just keep walking.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/the-map-bender-friday-march-14-2025


Crafty_Dog

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FO
« Reply #1777 on: March 18, 2025, 11:43:20 AM »


(14) RUSSIA TO RE-PRIVATIZE ECONOMY: Russia’s Finance Minister announced that he will re-privatize the numerous national-level companies the Russian government seized at the beginning of the Ukraine war. (This is a strong signal that the Russian government expects to end the war soon. - J.V.)



Crafty_Dog

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Comparing the readouts of the Trump-Putin call
« Reply #1780 on: March 23, 2025, 04:02:57 PM »
The pro-Russian commentary is distracting, but comparing the readouts is a good idea.


https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/03/21/trump-putin-call-tale-two-readouts-but-lets-see-bottom-line/

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: Ukrainian Morale
« Reply #1781 on: March 25, 2025, 01:55:02 PM »


Ukrainian morale. A new poll found that 82 percent of Ukrainians favor continuing the war against Russia, even if the U.S. withdraws all support. U.S. aid was temporarily suspended in early March before being restored. Only 8 percent of respondents said they would prefer to accept Russia’s conditions rather than fight on with European support. The survey was conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology.


DougMacG

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Re: GPF: Ukrainian Morale
« Reply #1783 on: March 26, 2025, 03:17:36 AM »
"82 percent of Ukrainians favor continuing the war against Russia,"

  - Surprising to me.

Does that also mean Z would be reelected if elections were held?

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1784 on: March 26, 2025, 03:40:01 AM »
Any chance the poll is dishonest?

OTOH it might be true.   The Ukes have shown tremendous courage and Putin (who now threatens Odessa btw) is making demands that would leave Ukraine as dead man walking.

Crafty_Dog

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Simplicius
« Reply #1785 on: March 27, 2025, 05:16:30 AM »
Even accounting for the fact that this is Simplicius, it looks like Trump is caving.  Lifting SWIFT?!?  WTF?!?

I sure hope that beneath the surface things are not as they appear to be.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-32625-signal-gate-crash-russia?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=159847139&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=z2120&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

ccp

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So far only thing conceded was a partial "cease fire"
« Reply #1786 on: March 27, 2025, 06:10:56 AM »
He probably did box himself in by literally campaigning on "I will end the Russian - Ukraine war in a day "

Sounds absurd. 
Well not if you plan to give the Ruskies everything they want and instead extract concessions by Ukraine.

 :roll:


Crafty_Dog

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GPF: Limited Deal
« Reply #1787 on: March 27, 2025, 06:39:05 AM »


   
Daily Memo: Black Sea Deal, Visit to Moscow
Ukraine and Russia separately agreed to cease fighting in the sea.
By: Geopolitical Futures

Limited deal. The United States reached separate agreements with Russia and Ukraine on a ceasefire in the Black Sea, following talks in Riyadh this week. According to a White House statement, the U.S. and Russia agreed to ensure safe navigation through the Black Sea. The U.S. also agreed to “help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.” However, a Kremlin statement said these agreements would be implemented only after the lifting of restrictions on Russia’s food and fertilizer exports as well as trade finance transactions and a number of other activities related to agricultural trade. An EU spokesperson rejected the Kremlin's demand, saying its sanctions would remain in place until Russia's "unconditional withdrawal" from Ukraine. Washington and Moscow also agreed to develop “measures” to implement a ban on strikes against Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure that was previously discussed between the Russian and U.S. presidents

ccp

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1788 on: March 27, 2025, 06:47:00 AM »
The Art of the (bad) deal?

What we got is a "ceasefire" whatever that will lead to.

As we Jews would say

oh vey

DougMacG

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Re: So far only thing conceded was a partial "cease fire"
« Reply #1789 on: March 27, 2025, 06:59:26 AM »
"He probably did box himself in by literally campaigning on "I will end the Russian - Ukraine war in a day " "

Yes, it turned out to be harder than expected. But in a way, he is keeping his promise, he is making it a top, immediate priority. The harder it is to do, the more credit he deserves if he succeeds.

It turns out, neither country really wants an end to the war right now? That surprises me.

DougMacG

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Re: Simplicius
« Reply #1790 on: March 27, 2025, 07:54:28 AM »
Even accounting for the fact that this is Simplicius, it looks like Trump is caving.  Lifting SWIFT?!?  WTF?!?

I sure hope that beneath the surface things are not as they appear to be.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-32625-signal-gate-crash-russia?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=159847139&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=z2120&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

I think it goes back to points made in the Tucker Carlson Putin interview, which I did not like. I didn't like that he got to tell his one-sided version of it all to the American people.  But he (Putin) did make important points. While we see Putin's Russia opposing us everywhere in the world and being nothing but a threat and a thorn, Putin points out that in certain situations he did do this for us and that for us.

From my secure Midwest living room location I would like to see us oppose Putin at every turn and blow their military off the map. But that is not the best course in the real world.

The war exposed weakness in Russia and the Russian military machine. From where we sit, they should have been able to take a country like Ukraine in days. Not so. They aren't the same threat now to continue marching into NATO countries and Western Europe that we might have thought they were before the Ukraine war.

Trump, I think, is seeing their exposed weakness as an opportunity. If our main threat is china, the worst thing we can do is drive Russia (further) to China's side.

The way you defund the Russian military machine is through the world oil market, not through sanctions.

We are about to lose a few Russian speaking oblasts to Russia, that are already lost. And we are about to gain some mineral rights in our quest to stand up to China.

It is wrong for Russia to have gained one inch of land for its unjustified war in my view. Deterrence was how you stop that and deterrence was lost in the  2020 election result in the United States. Permanent damage was done when Putin felt he could invade Ukraine without serious consequences. No one has a plan to reverse that, so we are stuck with negotiating from where we are today.

Having Russia a bit more cooperative and less adversarial with the United States is more valuable right now than Trump's approval numbers in Europe, or the nuclear war it might take to win back Donbas and Crimea.

Is it really appeasement if Putin moves not one inch further westward under Trump and for the rest of his ruling days?

Isn't Europe saying that we have to plan for our own security without help from the United States exactly what we wanted?
« Last Edit: March 27, 2025, 08:03:59 AM by DougMacG »

ccp

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1791 on: March 27, 2025, 08:00:18 AM »
except Putin is taking every inch he can as we speak

as for the rest yes of course.


DougMacG

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1792 on: March 27, 2025, 08:12:45 AM »
except Putin is taking every inch he can as we speak

as for the rest yes of course.

Good point, so maybe the end game is to retreat to your January 20 position. Trump needs to save face too.




Body-by-Guinness

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NYT Piece w/ Unflattering Elements for Ukraine
« Reply #1796 on: March 31, 2025, 06:08:49 PM »

Crafty_Dog

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George Friedman: How the US forced Russia's failure
« Reply #1797 on: Today at 08:02:02 AM »


April 1, 2025
View On Website
Open as PDF

How the US Forced Russia’s Failure
By: George Friedman

On Sunday, The New York Times published an article so long and so significant that it merits unpacking here. Its author, Times investigative reporter Adam Entous, claims to have interviewed many sources in various countries who revealed the extent of Washington’s involvement in the Ukraine war and, in doing so, provides an answer to the question of how Russia was unable to win it. Entous had to have spoken with people with a high clearance to obtain this information. It was published in the NYT because it was the one newspaper the Russians would certainly check. The story was quickly translated into Russian and published in a Russian newspaper, essentially acknowledging its receipt. Details, after all, can redefine the understanding of a war.

There are plenty of examples to choose from. One section of the story explains that the U.S. sent intelligence to Ukrainian forces to target Russian positions and attacks, via a U.S. base in Germany. Another section details why Russia’s various offensives failed and why it was forced to abandon its assault on Kyiv.

The heart of the article, however, concerned U.S. weaponry. Rather than reveal radical new technologies, it instead explained the manner in which the systems worked together under a high degree of American control to fight the Russians to a stalemate, if not to defeat. The most important weapon used was a satellite system so refined that it could identify the presence of relatively small Russian units. The U.S. supplied artillery – including the HIMARS short-range rocket system, a truck-based launcher with precision guidance capabilities – that was apparently linked in some manner to downloaded satellite data. According to the article, senior officers from the U.S., Canada and Britain provided strategic guidance and coordinated with the Ukrainian high command, while high-ranking U.S. officers oversaw the field operations and were in practical control of the weapons. Most importantly, the weapons were used at the command level.

Intelligence was fed to the Americans, who oversaw the linkage to the satellite data and provided targeting information to Ukraine. Ukrainian soldiers could not even fire a missile without a U.S. officer first slipping in a special card to the HIMARS system. Given the accuracy and acuity of the satellites, these rockets were vital in reversing Russian attacks on Kyiv early in the war. Coupled with pervasive failures in Russian logistics, it’s easy to see why Russian President Vladimir Putin was forced to claim he wanted only a small portion of Ukraine.

Indeed, the most startling revelation to me was not that the Russians failed in the war, nor that the Americans were providing massive aid, nor that the HIMARS was such a capable weapon. It was that satellites had reached a level of such sophistication and acuity that they were useful in tactical warfare. They could, for example, capture small unit formations with their cameras, and downlink so efficiently to the weapon that the time of engagement was a tactical, not strategic, matter.

This, the article says, clarifies why Russia at one point threatened to use tactical nuclear missiles: It was the only option Moscow had for suppressing the HIMARS. The Russian military lacked the precision that allowed conventional explosives to destroy small but dangerous formations. Tactical nukes have a large kill zone that does not require high levels of precision. Whether or not Russia believed tactical nukes were its only option, it nevertheless threatened to use them in the hopes of forcing the U.S. to stop its bombardment. According to the article, the CIA calculated only a 5-10 percent chance of Russia making good on its threat – that is, until later, when Russia believed its southern positions could have been threatened, at which point the probability rose to 50 percent. (It's unclear to me why the CIA uses percentages when the answers “not likely” and “I don’t know” would have been more honest.) In any case, Moscow was unsure whether Washington would retaliate in kind, and so it refrained from using tactical nukes.

Elsewhere, the article notes that the U.S. disallowed the Ukrainians from advancing deep into Russian-held territory, having no desire to force Russia into extreme actions or risk capture of the weapons they were using. This upset the Ukrainian command, which wanted to continue to attack. Clearly, the U.S. was in control, which thus explains the state of play with regard to negotiations.

Moscow obviously knew of the weapons and of their own vulnerability to them. This raises the question of why it continued to prosecute the war. The only explanation I can find is that Putin hoped Joe Biden, under whom U.S. war plans were crafted, would lose the election and Donald Trump would halt operations. He bet that Trump wanted peace more than he (Putin) did. Trump’s response was to have this article released. An article like this contains so much highly classified information that the author is legally bound to release only what is agreed to, and when. That it was published so quickly – just in time for the hard part of the negotiations – is telling.

This puts Putin in a bind domestically. Instead of prudently ending the war in the face of nearly insurmountable adversity, Putin continued to wage it. More, he framed the war as a fight between Russia and the West. Given Russia’s limits and America’s capabilities, a truce might have been prudent. Now, Putin wants to talk. Why Russia chose to fight an unwinnable war is not known, and it is for the Russian people to consider.

Before ending this, I would like to honor the Ukrainian and Russian soldiers who died for their countries. This conflict will dramatically change the nature of war on land. But in the end, it will be the poor bloody infantry that will pay the price. Why Russia chose to fight an unwinnable war isn’t clear, and it is for the Russian people to consider. But the one thing I am absolutely certain of is that this is not the last war mankind will fight.

DougMacG

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Re: George Friedman: How the US forced Russia's failure
« Reply #1798 on: Today at 10:24:34 AM »
Very interesting.

This war will end very shortly for a lot of reasons. Ukraine cannot win without US support and Russia cannot take much more ground without drawing the US back in.

Back to my NHL referee analogy, first they fought until both sides were thoroughly exhausted. Then the ref, Trump in this case, steps in and tries to pull them apart. Ugly scene. Both sides still belligerent. They are too exhausted to keep on fighting but they are just as angry at each other now as they were when it started, really much more so now. Changing their mind to making peace with terms they don't like isn't what they want, it's what they need to do.

Ukraine doesn't want the US mineral deal? Fine, then secure your country without us having US interests to protect.
« Last Edit: Today at 10:28:10 AM by DougMacG »