The Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol Attack in Context
Ben West
Global Security Analyst, Stratfor
14 MINS READ
Jan 22, 2021 | 10:00 GMT
A National Guardsman monitors a security checkpoint near the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 20, 2021, in Washington.
(Nathan Howard/Getty Images)
Highlights
The history of mob violence and insurrections in the United States suggests that local governments are more vulnerable than their federal and state counterparts....
Election-related violence has been around since the founding of the United States and violence has been a common tool to resolve disputes. In a few instances, localized violence has succeeded in either influencing the vote or reversing election results altogether. While shocking and unusual in ambition, especially in the current era, the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol attack was not without precedent.
The U.S. Capitol attack on Jan. 6 was the result of a remarkable confluence of law enforcement failures and unified momentum from a fractious movement of online communities that came together in support of former President Donald Trump's claims of election fraud. The shock it created has rallied political actors and law enforcement agencies around the country to work to prevent it from happening again, not just in Washington, but in state capitals and cities across the country. Enhanced security measures in Washington and state capitals plus condemnation of the Jan. 6 attack from the president's allies and the president himself are all working to ensure a similar incident does not happen again. While the successful transition of power on Jan. 20 cleared the first major hurdle in the effort to prevent a repeat of Jan. 6, it will not be the last. The anger expressed during the attack on the U.S. Capitol is not going away any time soon. Disappointment in Trump's loss, anger over COVID-19, distrust in government in general and concern over constitutional rights will all continue to contribute to the anger so vividly on display Jan. 6.
Grievances at the national level overlap with grievances closer to home for the various groups and movements involved in the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol attack. Many of the individuals who forced their way into the federal building on Jan. 6 had previously engaged in protest actions back home: Three protesters linked to the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol attack were part of the attempt to breach the Oregon State Capitol building in Salem on Dec. 21 during protests against COVID-19 measures. Another protester from Nashville appears to have been active in pro-Trump demonstrations outside the Tennessee state capitol prior to storming the U.S. Capitol. Groups and movements involved in the Jan. 6 attack such as the Proud Boys, Boogaloo, QAnon and neo-Confederates had all been associated with recent unrest and violence nationwide. The protesters present on Jan. 6 were motivated by a belief that they could prevent the U.S. Congress from confirming Biden as the next president and thereby somehow keeping Trump in office. And while the national stage provided a unifying source of motivation for some of the most extremist Trump supporters to converge on the U.S. Capitol, the grievances are not limited to the U.S. Congress and the national procedures for installing a president.
Prior to the attack on the U.S. Capitol, state capitals and government officials had been the primary target of election-related protests. Violent skirmishes between protesters, arrests and threats against state election officials were common from the election on Nov. 3 up through the confirmation of the election's results on Jan. 6. In addition to the Dec. 21 attempt to breach the Oregon statehouse, a group of Trump supporters successfully breached the outer perimeter of the governor's mansion in Olympia, Washington, on Jan. 6, threatening to break into the residence before state police pushed them back. Previously, in November and December, election officials in states like Arizona, Nevada and Georgia where the race was particularly close reported protests outside their homes and threats of violence. Particularly high-profile figures such as Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger received a security detail due to the high threat of violence against him and his family. With this history of violence and threats of violence, state capitals also successfully prevented a repeat of Jan. 6 on Inauguration Day through dramatically expanded security.
The Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol attack has focused attention on securing federal and state government buildings and officials, but local governments are also under increased threat. In an FBI memo circulated to law enforcement officials across the country Jan. 11, the bureau warned that local courthouses and administrative buildings were under threat along with state and national level targets. Protest actions both in support of and in opposition to Trump have targeted city halls, courthouses and local election officials. A Michigan woman was arrested in December after she made graphic threats to a Detroit area county election official influential in certifying Biden's victory there. Multiple cities across the country, including Los Angeles, closed or restricted access to city administrative buildings on Jan. 20, citing the increased threat of unrest.
While national and state governments have so far been the primary enemies in the eyes of the protesters who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 and their supporters, history suggests that local conflicts are more likely to end in their favor. Over the coming months (and even years) it will be important to remember that just as all politics are local, politically motivated threats and violence are local, too.
Anger over federal and state actions will continue to simmer, but two factors will contribute to both an increased threat and likelihood of success on the part of extremists when it comes to focusing on local government facilities and officials. First, higher security measures surrounding federal and state facilities will make them much harder targets post-Jan. 6. Wider security perimeters, enhanced physical security measures, and greater deployments of security personnel (ranging from local police to the National Guard) are all readily available to federal and state government buildings. Major cities like New York, Chicago and Los Angeles also have the resources to secure sensitive targets, but smaller cities and county seats are far less prepared to defend against a concerted effort by protesters to breach a local government facility or attack a local government official. Local protests are certainly less likely to bring out the large crowds of demonstrators seen in Washington on Jan. 6, but even a few dozen determined individuals could cause considerable damage to a much smaller city hall or county courthouse.
Violent extremist groups and movements around the world have settled for attacks against softer targets after their targets of preference hardened security. One of the best examples of this trend is the jihadist transition from targeting Western embassies to the less secure hotels and restaurants that Westerners frequent. When considering a similar transition in the domestic U.S. violent extremist movement, local governments provide a less secure target to violent individuals seeking an outlet for their anti-government grievances.
A review of the history of mob violence and insurrectionist activity in the United States suggests that attacks on local governments are more likely to end in the aggressor's interest than attacks on national or state targets. The only successful coup in the history of the United States was the result of a local uprising in Wilmington, North Carolina, and examples exist throughout U.S. history of nationwide or regional political grievances expressing themselves through localized actions — ranging from widespread frustration in the U.S. South during the Reconstruction period after the Civil War to the racial injustice protests of 2020. Below is a sample of some of those incidents that were most successful or came closest to being successful. Certainly, there are dozens (if not hundreds) more examples of mob violence and insurrection threatening democratically elected governments at all levels of government in the United States; the following selection of incidents spans time, ideology and targets:
Buckshot War, 1838 - A contested election effectively created two competing Houses of Representatives in Pennsylvania, leading to angry mobs occupying the state capitol, forcing lawmakers to evacuate and the governor to bunker in the governor's mansion. Mobs took control of Harrisburg for several weeks in December, even seizing the state arsenal. U.S. President Martin Van Buren denied an appeal from the governor for federal support, but eventually, the mob-supported Democratic Party secured a majority of the House of Representatives and the angry crowds dispersed. While there were associated plots to bomb a train bringing in the state militia the governor had called upon to restore order, no fatalities were associated with the uprising.
Battle of Liberty Place and Barbour County Election Riots, 1874 - The Reconstruction era following the Confederacy's loss in the Civil War saw tremendous social upheaval. Mobs attacked Blacks as they sought to integrate into free society and hold public office. Local whites who supported the new order were seen as traitors by those who still supported slavery and secession. Amid this environment of resentment, a series of contested state and local elections during the 1870s created conflicts across the former Confederacy, most pronounced in New Orleans and Eufaula, Alabama.
Battle of Liberty Place, New Orleans - Following a contested election in 1872, opponents of Washington-backed governor of Louisiana, William Pitt Kellogg, formed a shadow state government and eventually attempted to overthrow Kellogg by mob violence in 1873. While police put down that attempt, Kellogg's political rival, John McEnery, spent the next year assembling a more competent force of white supremacists known as the White League. In September 1874, McEnergy's militia attacked New Orleans police again and this time overpowered them, ultimately forcing Kellogg to resign the governorship. Federal troops quickly responded, however, restoring Kellogg to office three days later.
Barber County Election Riots, Alabama - Mobs of white men attacked Black voters and polling locations in Eufaula and Spring Hill, Alabama, during the election of 1874, essentially taking over the election process and declaring the candidates they supported as winners. Nearby federal troops failed to intervene in the violence and disruption to the electoral process due to unclear orders.
Wilmington Insurrection, 1898 - After losing power in North Carolina in 1894, pro-White southern Democrats mobilized militias and held rallies stoking white fears of Blacks. While most of the state reverted to Democratic control in 1898, Wilmington did not. Former Confederate army officer and U.S. Rep. Col. Alfred Moore Waddell led a mob of white supremacists that harassed the Black community in Wilmington, killing scores of people; burned down the offices of a newspaper that catered to Blacks; and forced the mayor to resign at gunpoint. Waddell took over the mayoralty and held it until 1906 in the only truly successful coup in U.S. history.
Battle of Athens, Tennessee, 1946 - Recently returned World War II veterans angry over local political and law enforcement corruption challenged an entrenched local political machine in 1946 elections. While this was a common theme across the Southern United States in the years after World War II, the campaign for sheriff's office in Athens, Tennessee, ended particularly violently. After the sheriff's office tried to interfere in the electoral process, several hundred war veterans and their supporters raided a local armory and laid siege to the local jailhouse to where the incumbent sheriff and his deputies had retreated. After dynamiting the jail and forcing the deputies' surrender, the election commission confirmed the veteran-supported election candidates.
Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, 2016 - A group of ranchers angry over government policies regarding the agricultural use of federal lands splintered off a small protest and took over the national wildlife refuge’s ranger station Jan. 2, leading to a 41-day standoff with local and federal law enforcement. The occupation was part of a larger, long-running conflict between ranchers (mostly in Western states) and the federal government known as the Sagebrush Rebellion. In the end, one of the occupiers was killed while resisting arrest and another was injured. While the occupation was resolved with minimal bloodshed, the underlying grievances continue to contribute to protest activity. One of the leaders of the 2016 occupation, Ammon Bundy, was still leading anti-government protests outside the Idaho state capitol in Boise as of January 2021.
Seattle Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone (CHAZ), 2020 - After a week of intense protests following the death of George Floyd in late May, protesters forced police out of Seattle Police Department's east precinct station on June 8 and claimed the six-block area "Free Capitol Hill." The area remained a lawless zone for about four weeks, with reports of widespread property damage, armed protests and violence between protesters. While the action was linked to nationwide racial injustice protests, Seattle's local history of left-wing radicalism and occupation-style protests clearly influenced how protesters demonstrated against national grievances. Protesters attempted similar occupations in other cities like Portland, Oregon, and Asheville, North Carolina, but were stopped. Seattle police eventually returned to the precinct and reestablished order, but protest activity in the area continued for months.
Several important lessons emerge from this quick survey applicable to the threat against all levels of government moving forward:
Many previous acts of rebellion were local manifestations of more general, nationwide grievances.
They were only successful in the absence of external intervention from state or federal security forces.
Crises tended to crescendo during election cycles.
As noted above, the threat of mob violence and insurrection were perhaps most acute during the post-Civil War Reconstruction era, as segregationists in the South struggled to prevent Black citizens from exercising freedoms such as participating in the political process.
The coup in Wilmington, blatant voter suppression through violence in Alabama and even the temporary seizure of the governor's office of the state of Louisiana can all be directly tied back to a larger, shared grievance across the Southern United States. And it didn't stop with Reconstruction: Regional concerns over corruption contributed to the Battle of Athens, and the occupations in Malheur and Seattle were also tied to regional and nationwide movements.
In Seattle, the 2020 occupation of the Capitol Hill was a good example of a local action inspiring others to adjust tactics elsewhere. Just as national grievances can influence local actions, local actions can also inspire others to emulate them, potentially further radicalizing political movements. The current nationwide sense of grievance among millions of Trump supporters who believe he actually won the 2020 election provides a backdrop of distrust of the incoming administration and general antipathy toward the democratic process in the United States.
The response or lack of response of federal or state security forces also heavily influenced the effectiveness of past acts of mob violence and insurrection. The gubernatorial coup attempt in New Orleans was foiled by responding federal forces, while a state militia helped maintain order in Harrisburg during the Buckshot War. But in smaller, more rural areas like Athens, Tennessee, or Barber County, Alabama — or even Wilmington, North Carolina — concern over interfering in local politics kept federal and state forces out. In the most recent examples, Malheur and Seattle, federal forces were more than capable of ending the occupations, but since they were seen by the belligerents as part of the problem, they declined direct intervention in order to avoid escalating the broader, ongoing conflicts. Federal, state and local law enforcement have been infiltrating and disrupting domestic terrorism plots for years and will continue their efforts to disrupt actions before they become violent. Following the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, the National Guard, federal and state law enforcement agencies are less likely to stand by if a local government official is threatened at gunpoint or if a local government office is overrun by partisan protesters. But similar efforts to avoid escalation used at Malheur or in Seattle could be applied to subsequent actions, especially if the aggressors do not threaten immediate violence.
Finally, all of the incidents mentioned above were either directly connected to a contested electoral outcome or, at the very least, occurred during a general election year. Certainly, the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol attack directly targeted the election process. The United States is not unique in this regard: Political transitions in countries around the world have been vulnerable to both internal and external interference. Russian disinformation campaigns targeted the 2016 presidential campaign precisely for this reason. It is not difficult to imagine individuals or groups still angry over the perceived injustices of the 2020 election cycle to lash out against far less defended local government offices and officials accused of perpetuating the corruption they blame for denying Trump a second term. The anger surrounding the results of the 2020 election will likely sustain unrest and threats for months to come and could transition to longer term opposition protests against the incoming Biden administration's policies.
Further election activity could also ignite local unrest. There are 84 local and state elections scheduled over the course of 2021 following Inauguration Day. They range from relatively innocuous races for school board positions; to special elections filling vacated federal and state congressional seats; to general state elections in Wisconsin, Colorado, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Washington. Given the more controversial roles Wisconsin and Pennsylvania played in the 2020 elections, they will be especially important to watch for disturbances in April and November, respectively. As authorities across the country continue to respond to the threat highlighted on Jan. 6, it will be important to remember the particular vulnerabilities of local governments.
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