Author Topic: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver  (Read 357389 times)

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #1250 on: February 21, 2021, 03:03:07 AM »
Thought experiment:

What would happen to economic efficiency if there were no taxes and the govt self financed to the tune 20% of GPD?  i.e. what the federal govt usually spends?

DougMacG

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #1251 on: February 21, 2021, 03:22:51 AM »
Thought experiment:

What would happen to economic efficiency if there were no taxes and the govt self financed to the tune 20% of GDP?  i.e. what the federal govt usually spends?

Interesting hypothetical, Gilder suggested this, but I'm afraid the idea government could self limit its spending to anything is what makes it not real, not possible.

Theoretical answer, the debt would grow and our capacity to service the debt would grow proportionally.  Doesn't this assume zero (compounding) interest rates to work?  A very harmful policy in itself.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #1252 on: February 21, 2021, 09:15:15 AM »
Another problem occurs to me as well-- with no taxes, how would measurement of private sector activity occur?

G M

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ccp

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Crafty_Dog

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ten facts about bitcoin
« Reply #1256 on: February 22, 2021, 12:55:01 PM »
10 facts that can help you understand its benefits and risks of Bitcoin...Courtesy of The Harford

 

 

Crypto What? – Cryptocurrency is a new type of digital currency that's an alternative to the US dollar and other traditional currencies. Bitcoin was created in 2009 and is the largest and oldest cryptocurrency.

Mystery Man – Bitcoin was the brainchild of Satoshi Nakamoto, a psuedonym used by the author of a white paper written in 2008. Several people have claimed to be Nakamoto, but his or her true identity remains a mystery.

Fasten Your Seatbelts – Bitcoin's dramatic daily price swings in 2020 were significantly higher than the stock market's daily price swings in 2008—the most volatile year for stocks on record due to the global financial crisis (see FIGURE 2).

Put on Your Thinking Cap – Bitcoin is created when programmers solve complex computations that are added to the blockchain—the public ledger that records all Bitcoin transactions. This process, known as mining, requires a lot of time and significant computing power.

Finite Supply Creates Scarcity – The maximum number of Bitcoins that will be created through mining is 21 million. As of January 2021, there are 2.4 million Bitcoins left to be mined.1 This finite supply is one reason why some people believe Bitcoin will eventually increase in value over time.

What's in Your Digital Wallet? – Bitcoins are purely digital and stored electronically in programs called wallets that are secured by passwords. Once you transfer Bitcoin to someone else, there's no way to retrieve it or dispute the transaction.

Save Some Gains for Uncle Sam – The IRS treats Bitcoin as property rather than currency. If you receive Bitcoin as compensation, it's considered taxable income. You also need to calculate your gain or loss every time you spend Bitcoin. Short-term gains (<1 year) are taxed as ordinary income, and long-term gains (1 year or more) are taxed as capital gains. Tax losses are treated the same as stocks.

Don't Lose Your Password! – Around 20% of Bitcoin, valued at approximately $140 billion, is lost forever because people forgot their passwords.2 Download our free "Get It Together" worksheet to organize all your financial records, including cryptocurrency passwords.

Value Is in the Eye of the Beholder – Unlike stocks and bonds, Bitcoin doesn't have any intrinsic value based on corporate earnings or cash flows. But as with traditional currency, it has value as long as people accept it as currency. Platforms such as PayPal and Square accept payments in Bitcoin, but a conversion to a fiat currency is required before the payments settle.

Growing Demand – Institutions and wealthy investors are increasingly taking positions in Bitcoin as an alternative asset class similar to gold (some call it digital gold).
 

Paul M. DeSisto, CFA
Executive Vice President and Managing Director
M&R Capital Management, Inc.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #1257 on: February 23, 2021, 07:14:55 AM »
GBTC down 20% so far today.


DougMacG

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Re: time to buy?
« Reply #1259 on: February 23, 2021, 01:32:51 PM »
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-02-23/Ethereum-Bitcoin-take-huge-price-hits-should-you-be-worried-Frank-Holmes-gives-analysis.html

A friend I visited this past week said his son gave him a bitcoin as a birthday present, I guess like giving a lottery ticket.  This was 2013 I think, valued at around $100. 
https://www.in2013dollars.com/bitcoin-price-in-2013
Now he gets teased by the son, asks him who else had their kid give them a $50,000 birthday present? Um, 56,000, oops 44,000, make that 48,000, moving while I wrote this.  Up 500 fold?  4000-fold from 2011?

These downturns make a good test of what others think of the question posed, is this a good time to buy?  If it dropped to 24k instead of 48k is it twice as good of a buy?  I don't have the tools to analyze that.

Can you ride it this far and not be hooked, just buy and sell on the lows and highs?  How do you know which is which?  Why would you sell if it's headed to 90k.  Why would you sell then?  When would you sell?  Have you really made a return if you don't sell? With what percent of your portfolio do you do this? Might as well go all in (just kidding).  It has the best return of anything over the last 10 years, past performance is no guarantee of ... whatever. 

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/

If you bought Dec 2017, sold Nov 2018, you lost 80% of your money.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/30/if-you-invested-1000-in-bitcoin-in-2011-now-you-have-4-million.html

Personally, I want to buy one of those parcels out where G M is looking. 

G M

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Re: time to buy?
« Reply #1260 on: February 23, 2021, 05:45:10 PM »
I haven't dipped a toe into crypto yet, but I probably will soon. Mostly as a way for my business to get paid as I anticipate all of us face de-personing.

Email me Doug, and I'll tell you where I am heading.


https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-02-23/Ethereum-Bitcoin-take-huge-price-hits-should-you-be-worried-Frank-Holmes-gives-analysis.html

A friend I visited this past week said his son gave him a bitcoin as a birthday present, I guess like giving a lottery ticket.  This was 2013 I think, valued at around $100. 
https://www.in2013dollars.com/bitcoin-price-in-2013
Now he gets teased by the son, asks him who else had their kid give them a $50,000 birthday present? Um, 56,000, oops 44,000, make that 48,000, moving while I wrote this.  Up 500 fold?  4000-fold from 2011?

These downturns make a good test of what others think of the question posed, is this a good time to buy?  If it dropped to 24k instead of 48k is it twice as good of a buy?  I don't have the tools to analyze that.

Can you ride it this far and not be hooked, just buy and sell on the lows and highs?  How do you know which is which?  Why would you sell if it's headed to 90k.  Why would you sell then?  When would you sell?  Have you really made a return if you don't sell? With what percent of your portfolio do you do this? Might as well go all in (just kidding).  It has the best return of anything over the last 10 years, past performance is no guarantee of ... whatever. 

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/

If you bought Dec 2017, sold Nov 2018, you lost 80% of your money.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/30/if-you-invested-1000-in-bitcoin-in-2011-now-you-have-4-million.html

Personally, I want to buy one of those parcels out where G M is looking.

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #1261 on: February 23, 2021, 05:46:33 PM »
Worth pointing out that the 2017 bull run had 9 pullbacks of about 33 % each. This cycle we have had 2 pullbacks of 20% each. Also check seasonality



ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #1264 on: February 24, 2021, 06:40:45 PM »
Well written article

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #1265 on: February 25, 2021, 04:24:37 AM »
BTC is gold 2.0. Since Microstrategy (MSTR) put BTC on its balance sheet (in part by getting low interest rate money from govt to buy BTC an appreciating asset), MSTR stock has sky rocketed. They followed up by holding a free conference that was attended by 20,000 company execs on how others can do the same and revealed their playbook to buy BTC, legal issues etc. This play book will be replicated by hundreds and thousands of companies as the US $ is printed to infinity.

The below chart shows a nice correlation, suggesting that capital may be moving from gold to BTC. Gold is no longer the store of value it once was. The dotted vertical line shows when MSTR started BTC purchases and the world started to notice.

« Last Edit: February 25, 2021, 04:26:08 AM by ya »

ccp

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ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #1267 on: February 28, 2021, 02:57:01 PM »
On chain analysis data suggests, BTC should go up soon. Re: GBTC folks need to be wary of a few more things.
1. Fees: 2 %, these add up over time.
2. Premium over NAV, i.e. one is paying more than what the asset is worth. In return you get convenience.
3. The biggest danger lurking is that Bloomberg reported that an ETF is around the corner. Once the ETF comes out, GBTC will lose its premium, i.e. price will match NAV.

If one is concerned about these dangers, the wise thing is to consider selling on the next up swing (@around $60k BTC) and buy BTC instead.

P.S. My understanding of NAV is rudimentary at best!, so above scenario may or may not occur.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2021, 06:33:59 PM by ya »

ccp

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Kevin O'Leary 3% into bitcoin
« Reply #1268 on: March 01, 2021, 09:13:46 AM »
the shark tank guy who talked down
bitcoin just last week

now tells buys on recent dip 3% of his portfolio

all these billionaire's who talk it down then buy like rabbits

https://news.bitcoin.com/shark-tanks-kevin-oleary-bitcoin-cryptocurrencies-here-to-stay-invests-portfolio/

ya

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Fidelity is out with a positive piece on BTC. https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/literature/item/9901337.html?pos=T
Similarly Citibank has a positive research note out today. https://ir.citi.com/_tpHpW8MfaZ1QXwGmP1JGMGXXI95qXm3IMJzUJScLMb6XIjtOls6EbDehXMR3B_o9Opi7mdc5tQ%3D
Goldman is starting their crypto desk again.
Lots of positive news with Institutional investors...$70 K by end of April.

I am planning to get out of BITW a crypto fund over the next month or so. I think the ETF will be approved sometime this year, at which point any funds with high premiums (GBTC, BITW etc) will lose the premium and the price will go down.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2021, 05:15:50 PM by ya »

ya

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Here's some hopium https://www.coindesk.com/why-1-million-bitcoin-is-coming
The author is considered a serious guy and just wrote a book.


ya

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BTC Fibonacci levels, pl. scroll to right

Crafty_Dog

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In English please?

ya

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Simple answer BTC going up, Fibonacci level of 70K+. Every cycle in BTC has had 3 peaks so far, we just finished the first peak at 58K. With some luck 2 more peaks to be expected. HODL waves represent BTC holder peaks, the orange color shows the market peaks when the short term (1 month) hodlers peak (orange).


« Last Edit: March 06, 2021, 07:04:32 AM by ya »

ya

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See how small is BTC as compared to other asset classes, all we need is a 5 % flow from the other asset classes and things will rock.