Author Topic: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold  (Read 513079 times)

ccp

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the big inside club with inside information revolving door
« Reply #2250 on: September 27, 2022, 01:30:43 PM »
Trey Hollingsworth R Indiana

My team member will be with Bank of America Monday

so hope you recognize her talent ( talking to big shots )

Big shot back to Hollingsworth:

we already know , her father works for us [you schmuck]
    [why do you think we had her work for you!]

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Lumber back to normal
« Reply #2251 on: September 27, 2022, 02:14:56 PM »
By Ryan DezemberFollow
 | Photographs by Landon Speers for The Wall Street Journal
Updated Sept. 27, 2022 4:36 pm ET



Lumber prices have fallen to their lowest level in more than two years, bringing two-by-fours back to what they cost before the pandemic building boom and pointing to a sharp slowdown in construction.

Lumber futures ended Tuesday at $429.30 per thousand board feet, down about one-third from a year ago and more than 70% from their peak in March, when the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to fight inflation.

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Wood prices crashed in the early days of the 2020 lockdown, but they exploded that summer when stuck-at-home Americans remodeled en masse and suburban home sales surged. Two-by-four prices nearly tripled the prepandemic record in an early sign of the inflation and broken supply chains that would bedevil the economic reopening.

But lumber has led the way down for commodities since the central bank took aim at rising consumer prices and the overheated housing market. For two years, climbing lumber costs lifted home prices. Now home builders say that cheaper wood is giving them wiggle room to offer buyer incentives and to trim prices without crimping their profit margins.

Wood-pricing service Random Lengths said its framing-lumber composite index, which tracks cash sales in several species, fell last week to $529, down more than 60% from early March. Now that supply issues have eased and the highest mortgage rates in more than a decade have slowed home sales, buyers are no longer hoarding lumber for fear of running out.

“All the urgency over the past two years—‘give me everything you can’—that’s basically over. Lumberyards are not scared of the price going up,” said Michael Goodman, director of specialty products at wholesaler Sherwood Lumber Corp., which his family owns and operates. The Melville, N.Y., distributor sells framing lumber and plywood to building-supply companies, truss manufacturers and shipping-crate makers around the country. “The sexy lumber world is coming to an end, unfortunately,” he said.

A Massachusetts facility of Sherwood Lumber, which says the urgent demand for lumber over the past two years is over.

Lumber has led the way down for commodities since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to fight inflation.
The rate at which new U.S. housing is being built is down about 13% from April, when residential construction activity hit its highest level in more than a decade, according to the Census Bureau. An increase in new multifamily buildings has offset a sharper decline in the construction of single-family homes, which typically use about three times as much lumber per unit as apartments.


The issuance of building permits for residential construction has declined steadily since March. The National Association of Home Builders said its measure of builder confidence declined in September for the ninth straight month, to a level of pessimism not registered since 2020’s Covid-19 lockdown and the 2008 housing crash. 

Mill executives, analysts and timber consultants who gathered last week at a World Forestry Center conference in Portland, Ore., said the lumber sector is bracing for recession, though not a severe one.

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Paul Jannke of Forest Economic Advisors LLC said his firm forecasts that lumber consumption will decline by as much as 2.5% this year and up to 4.5% in 2023 as home construction stalls and remodeling demand reverts to normal following the pandemic renovation boom.

Despite the steep drop in consumption, Mr. Jannke and others expect wood prices to be much higher than during previous downturns—in the $400s per thousand board feet, rather than the $200s—due to record-low inventories among dealers and rising mill costs, especially in British Columbia, where forest fires, wood-boring beetles and conservation efforts have reduced the supply of logs.

The lumber price that mills in western Canada need to break even is about $500 per thousand board feet, which means that they are likely to choke back output whenever cash prices for the spruce, pine and fir boards they saw drop below that, Mr. Jannke said.

Mills there, as well as in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and the South, have already begun cutting back. Canfor Corp., one of North America’s largest lumber producers, said it began a two-week curtailment Monday at most of its facilities in British Columbia. Work will resume at reduced operating schedules aimed at trimming the Vancouver firm’s production capacity by about 200 million board feet, or about 15% of last year’s fourth-quarter output.


Pressure on lumber prices is down as supply issues have eased and surging mortgage rates have slowed home sales.
The consolidation of North America’s sawmills by a few big firms, such as Canfor and West Fraser Timber Co., has hastened the speed at which production is choked back in response to falling prices and should buoy prices, said Håkan Ekström of Wood Resources International LLC.

“Markets are a little more controlled with fewer mill owners,” he said. “When there were more owners, everyone waited for someone else to slow down.”

Dealers like Sherwood’s Mr. Goodman say that the quick curtailment triggers are reason to load up on wood. “There’s upside risk of waiting and really no downside to buying right now, that’s what we’re telling our customers,” he said.

ya

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Lots of rumors about Credit Suisse going down...contagion ? Fed Emergency meeting tomorrow.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2022, 08:16:41 AM by ya »

G M

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Lots of rumors about Credit Suisse going down...contagion ?

If that was true, then the whole house of cards is coming down, most likely.

Crafty_Dog

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Credit Suisse? 

Even I have heard of them so that sounds really bad.  What is the source for this, what is the nature of the problem?

G M

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Credit Suisse? 

Even I have heard of them so that sounds really bad.  What is the source for this, what is the nature of the problem?

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1576550675361587200

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ

VIEW LIVE COVERAGE FEED
SHARE
Updated 15 min ago
Credit Suisse Stock and Bonds Fall on Concerns Over Financial Health
By Margot Patrick and Quentin Webb

Credit Suisse stock traded lower on Monday.ARND WIEGMANN/REUTERS
Credit Suisse’s riskiest bonds sank Monday, and its shares hit fresh record lows, on concerns about the Swiss bank’s financial health.

The stock was recently 8% lower at 3.66 Swiss francs, the equivalent of $3.71. A $1.55 billion additional tier-1 bond that can be redeemed from 2025 was recently bid at about 65.6 cents on the dollar, Tradeweb data showed

Credit Suisse said in July it would refashion its investment bank and exit some other businesses to become a leaner, less risky institution, following financial disasters that included a $5.1 billion hit last year from client Archegos Capital Management. The lender has a large Swiss business serving all types of customers and competes globally in wealth management, investment banking and asset management.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that Chief Executive Ulrich Körner told employees late last week that the bank was at a critical moment before it presents a strategy update outlining plans for the investment bank on Oct. 27. The memo appeared to spark fresh concerns, prompting online discussions over the weekend.

In talking points updated on Sunday for its bankers and relationship managers, Credit Suisse said it has close to a $100 billion capital buffer and continues to expect a 13% to 14% ratio for its highest quality equity capital through the rest of the year.

The stressed market prices indicate Credit Suisse could struggle to raise new shares to pay for a planned restructuring and that its funding costs could rise sharply.

ccp

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Biden Smellin to push for more regs on crypto
« Reply #2257 on: October 03, 2022, 03:18:33 PM »
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/biden-regulators-cheer-on-crypto-crackdown-11664826331?siteid=yhoof2

she is doing so well as Treasury Secretary it seems clear this cannot be good for us crypto holders

and is likely a first step to forcing everyone into US digital dollars

in this end Trump would be NO better for us.

I am seriously thinking of selling while I am still up .


Crafty_Dog

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With the possibility of a huge banking crash on the radar screen?

ccp

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".With the possibility of a huge banking crash on the radar screen?"

I don't follow you

BC has not proven itself to be a hedge at all so far

It has been simply following the stock market.

Maybe sell and leave in cash for now till I know what Yellen et al

and the big shot bankers are going to do to crypto if they have their way.



ccp

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Debt now 31 trill
« Reply #2261 on: October 04, 2022, 08:32:07 PM »
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/u-s-national-debt-interest-rates-31-trillion/2022/10/04/id/1090453/

but only small part of total GDP

"manageable"

though some economists are taking notice

in my wildest dreams I don't see how we EVER going to pay this off

G M

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Re: Debt now 31 trill
« Reply #2262 on: October 04, 2022, 10:01:18 PM »
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/u-s-national-debt-interest-rates-31-trillion/2022/10/04/id/1090453/

but only small part of total GDP

"manageable"

though some economists are taking notice

in my wildest dreams I don't see how we EVER going to pay this off

It's not getting paid off.

Thus WW III or the "Great Reset"

ya

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Fresh ideas from the Space Force
« Reply #2263 on: October 05, 2022, 06:30:29 PM »
jason lowery is in the US space force, some fresh ideas if you have the time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikPnr23h7qg
« Last Edit: October 06, 2022, 06:13:31 AM by Crafty_Dog »

G M

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The macroeconomics of depopulation
« Reply #2264 on: October 05, 2022, 07:00:39 PM »

DougMacG

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No one is buying our debt
« Reply #2265 on: October 12, 2022, 06:56:41 AM »
Everywhere you turn, the biggest players in the $23.7 trillion US Treasuries market are in retreat. From Japanese pensions and life insurers to foreign governments and US commercial banks, where once they were lining up to get their hands on US government debt, most have now stepped away. And then there’s the Federal Reserve, which a few weeks ago upped the pace that it plans to offload Treasuries from its balance sheet to $60 billion a month. If one or two of these usually steadfast sources of demand were bailing, the impact, while noticeable, would likely be little cause for alarm. But for every one of them to pull back is an undeniable source of concern, especially coming on the heels of the unprecedented volatility, deteriorating liquidity and weak auctions of recent months. (Source: bloomberg.com via John Ellis News Items)

(Doug). Are we borrowing trillions or just printing money?

ccp

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I don't know if is just short sellers
but all I read is catastrophe is more and more possible.....

thanks,
Joe !

I wonder what all the free shitters would do once the government checks are worthless
and( the social security people )

besides say tax the "'w'ich"

this probably was all avoidable or at least less severe situation
and yet NO ONE held accountable . nadda

the MSM continues to
give Robinette a pass


DougMacG

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I don't know if is just short sellers
but all I read is catastrophe is more and more possible.....

thanks,
Joe !

I wonder what all the free shitters would do once the government checks are worthless
and( the social security people )

besides say tax the "'w'ich"

this probably was all avoidable or at least less severe situation
and yet NO ONE held accountable . nadda

the MSM continues to
give Robinette a pass

A Dem leaning friend suggested what MSM and the administration spouts, these are global problems, inflation etc.

Yes, true, BUT... the US used to lead the world (in a positive way).  Of all the forces headed in the wrong direction you can say one thing for certain, President Biden, his poicy makers and the Dem majority Congress made it worse.

Policies have consequences.

We have separate threads for spending (fiscal policy) and monetary policy, but they are inseparably intertwined.  You can't spend an extra 4 trillion without The Fed accommodating it.  WHY DO THEY DO THAT?

G M

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I don't know if is just short sellers
but all I read is catastrophe is more and more possible.....

thanks,
Joe !

I wonder what all the free shitters would do once the government checks are worthless
and( the social security people )

besides say tax the "'w'ich"

this probably was all avoidable or at least less severe situation
and yet NO ONE held accountable . nadda

the MSM continues to
give Robinette a pass

A Dem leaning friend suggested what MSM and the administration spouts, these are global problems, inflation etc.

Yes, true, BUT... the US used to lead the world (in a positive way).  Of all the forces headed in the wrong direction you can say one thing for certain, President Biden, his poicy makers and the Dem majority Congress made it worse.

Policies have consequences.

We have separate threads for spending (fiscal policy) and monetary policy, but they are inseparably intertwined.  You can't spend an extra 4 trillion without The Fed accommodating it.  WHY DO THEY DO THAT?

We are at the "Loot the treasury" phase of collapse.

ccp

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We are at the "Loot the treasury" phase of collapse.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/social-security-cola-will-be-8point7percent-in-2023-highest-increase-in-40-years.html

[just prior to election  :wink:]

DougMacG

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8.7% COLA!
« Reply #2270 on: October 13, 2022, 07:13:32 AM »
We are at the "Loot the treasury" phase of collapse.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/social-security-cola-will-be-8point7percent-in-2023-highest-increase-in-40-years.html

[just prior to election  :wink:]

Wow, 8.7% federal cost of living adjustment, which is generally understated.  At least this gives us a base number coming into the election.

These policies are killing us.

G M

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Re: 8.7% COLA!
« Reply #2271 on: October 13, 2022, 08:01:25 AM »
We are at the "Loot the treasury" phase of collapse.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/social-security-cola-will-be-8point7percent-in-2023-highest-increase-in-40-years.html

[just prior to election  :wink:]

Wow, 8.7% federal cost of living adjustment, which is generally understated.  At least this gives us a base number coming into the election.

These policies are killing us.

No Dollar Store dog food for some seniors! Happy Days Are HERE AGAIN!

Crafty_Dog

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ET: Near crash of the pound
« Reply #2272 on: October 13, 2022, 09:27:26 AM »
Near-Crash of Pound—A Warning of Global Crisis
Antonio Graceffo
Antonio Graceffo
 October 12, 2022 Updated: October 13, 2022biggersmaller Print

0:00
4:23



1

Commentary

The decline of the British pound has far-reaching implications for the global economy.

The near-crash of the British pound last month is just one of many such stories of declining currencies and central bank intervention taking place around the globe. It serves as a frightening harbinger of a major economic crisis to come.

The dollar has hit a 20-year high. Nearly all other currencies are depreciating, and the steps governments are taking to defend their currencies are inflationary. Countries are spending down their dollar reserves and purchasing their own currencies, but commodities, oil, and energy are all priced in dollars. Foreign debt also has to be paid in dollars. Therefore, depleting dollar reserves will make these international payments more expensive.

To rescue the pound, the Bank of England intervened and bought up $73 billion worth of pounds. As a result, the foreign currency reserves decreased by a record $54 billion. The UK foreign currency reserves have been in steady decline for the past 12 months, hitting only $171 billion in September.

But it isn’t just the UK taking similar steps. Japan’s government spent nearly $20 billion in September to prop up the yen. India spent $75 billion supporting the rupee. And Beijing warned state banks to prepare to go on a buying spree to save a beleaguered yuan. To fight inflation, which already stands at 18 percent, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has banned price increases. Since a ban on price rises has no impact on costs, suppliers will refuse to sell at the lower price, and the country will be faced with shortages.

The European Central Bank is planning $388 billion in support spending to counter rising energy prices in the European Union. This will increase inflation while increasing debt.

The recent pound crisis came on Sept. 26 when the British pound lost nearly 5 percent of its value overnight, hitting a 37-year low. The pound, usually worth quite a bit more than the dollar, came almost to parity at $1.035 to the greenback. After months of losses, the pound is worth 21 percent less than it was in January. The plunge came after the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled the new minibudget—which was meant to boost the economy—in the face of inflation by implementing the largest tax cuts in 50 years. The government also announced a tax reduction for real estate sales and a cap on energy prices. At the same time, Britain plans to increase defense spending.

Kwasi Kwarteng
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng attends an In Conversation with the Institute of Economics Affairs and TaxPayers’ Alliance on the third day of the Conservative Party conference at Birmingham ICC, in Birmingham, England, on Oct. 4, 2022. (Ian Forsyth/Getty Images)
Over the next six months, the tax cuts are expected to cost the government $48.17 billion, while the energy support is expected to cost $64.12 billion. The difference between the actual cost of energy and the government cap will be paid to the energy-producing companies by the government. And these payments will be funded with increased government debt. Consequently, the government has been forced to raise its debt ceiling, allowing it to borrow more.


Meanwhile, the British government’s borrowing costs have dramatically increased due to interest rate increases and skepticism caused by Britain’s commitment to increased spending and driving up the government debt, which already stands in excess of 85 percent of gross domestic product.

Cutting taxes while increasing government spending and public debt are all expansionary policies that add to inflation. In September, consumer price inflation expectations rose to 9.5 percent. High inflation should reduce unemployment, but the UK’s youth unemployment rate is more than 9 percent. Additionally, 39.8 percent of young people are considered inactive, meaning they no longer seek work. The total number of 18- to 24-year-olds who are “not in education, employment, or training” (NEET) is 12.5 percent. High inflation coupled with unemployment matches the definition of stagflation.

Investors are voting with their feet. Over the past 16 months, money has been steadily flowing out of the British stock market. In September alone, as a result of the announcement of the minibudget, investors pulled $2.7 billion out of UK equity funds. Investment flowing out of a country will cause the currency to depreciate. Much of the investment leaving other countries is flowing into the United States, which is driving up the dollar.

Countries worldwide, particularly Britain, are caught in a vicious cycle of inflation, low currency value, difficulty making foreign payments, high borrowing costs, rising debt, U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, a rising dollar, and the fear of citizens freezing to death this winter.

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

ya

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Re: 8.7% COLA!
« Reply #2273 on: October 13, 2022, 05:34:17 PM »
We are at the "Loot the treasury" phase of collapse.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/social-security-cola-will-be-8point7percent-in-2023-highest-increase-in-40-years.html

[just prior to election  :wink:]

Wow, 8.7% federal cost of living adjustment, which is generally understated.  At least this gives us a base number coming into the election.

These policies are killing us.

Why worry...the 31 Trillion debt will never be paid back. There are only two options, 1) Print even more and debase the currency, generate more inflation and pay back in cheap dollars, b) Print so much that a reset is necessary either due to WWIII or some fake Climate Crisis. After which  they will bring out the CBDC's and print as much as needed.


DougMacG

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Re: Not sure I understand this
« Reply #2275 on: October 15, 2022, 10:08:26 AM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cue-dollar-squeeze-panic-fed-sends-record-63-billion-switzerland-swap-line?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=997

I don't understand either, but to look at the inner workings of markets in turmoil is bound to be ugly.

A rising dollar is not better than a stable dollar.  A rising dollar makes us richer?  How?  It makes our export products and services relatively more expensive.

IF the US had a balanced budget, growing economy, stable currency, energy independent, full employment, relatively low taxes, reasonable regulations and so on, then the other countries would be forced to manage their own economies competently to compete. 

What I see instead is a mess worldwide.  If not the US or western Europe, who is the leader?  Russia, China, Saudi?  No one?

ya

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« Last Edit: October 16, 2022, 11:03:04 PM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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BTC as property
« Reply #2277 on: October 22, 2022, 01:17:24 PM »

DougMacG

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, Argentina
« Reply #2278 on: October 25, 2022, 08:04:47 AM »
Quote from Scott Grannis:

Argentina has actually been suffering from bad monetary policy forever. When I lived there in 1975-79, inflation averaged about 125% per year. If Argentina had not changed its currency by lopping off zeros and renaming it 5 times since 1916 (when a dollar was worth 2 of the original pesos), the exchange rate today would be 3,000,000,000,000,000 pesos per dollar.
--------------------------------------------------------------

I'm so old I think 2% inflation is government theft.

Other than bad government economic policies, there is no reason Argentina shouldn't be as prosperous as the US or any other country.

Conversely, why would anyone think that, with equally bad policies, that wouldn't happen here?
« Last Edit: October 25, 2022, 08:59:11 AM by DougMacG »

ccp

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ya

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ya

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Crafty_Dog

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GPF: Weak Yuan
« Reply #2282 on: October 31, 2022, 11:44:55 AM »
Weak yuan. The Chinese yuan is on track for its eighth straight monthly decline, the longest period of consecutive decline since 1994. Prior to the opening of the markets on Monday, the People’s Bank of China set the yuan’s midpoint against the dollar to 7.1768, the weakest rate since February 2008. The currency’s recent volatility has discouraged foreign investors from buying yuan-denominated bonds.

Crafty_Dog

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PP: Fed now losing money
« Reply #2283 on: October 31, 2022, 11:51:21 AM »
Second

The Fed is losing money: Thanks to inflation at a 40-year high and the Federal Reserve's response of raising interest rates by 3.35% so far this year — with another 0.75% increase expected before the year's end — the central bank is now losing money. Interest payouts now exceed the Fed's interest income on the roughly $8.3 trillion in the U.S. Treasury that the Fed has accumulated over the last 14 years. The Fed has an $8.7 trillion asset portfolio made up of mostly interest-bearing assets providing a 2.3% average yield, though given the current high rate of inflation and growing interest rate, the Fed's payouts will likely exceed its interest earnings for the next couple years. Former senior Fed economist Seth Carpenter explained: "The losses can grow over time if they keep raising short-term interest rates, which it seems like they will, because the mismatch between interest income and interest expense will rise." So the Fed will operate at a loss for the foreseeable future with the expectation that once the inflation rate gets under control, the net negative will turn positive "likely in a few years," Carpenter estimates, adding, "at this point, they just have to live with it."

ya

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Why a G7 country could go bankrupt
« Reply #2284 on: October 31, 2022, 05:43:56 PM »
Important read...simple language. Why a G7 country could go bankrupt..

https://jameslavish.substack.com/p/informationist-halloween-edition
« Last Edit: October 31, 2022, 07:08:16 PM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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Don't know about the other countries, but as I posted in the Scott Grannis thread, https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/ Scott makes a strong case for a different analytical framework.

I was hoping to find therein a citation I know he makes , , , somewhere, but the gist of it is that even with the sharp increase in interest rates, the % of GDP that we pay on the national debt is 2.something% and as such, it quite manageable and that even assuming a continuation of current numbers it will take quite a while for the higher interest rates to apply to a significant percentage of the debt.

Separately, as I have argued here recently, interest rates on Treasuries are still well below inflation (4%+ at official rates?)  Thus, inflation reduces the burden of the debt on the Fed/the Federal Government, yes?

Working at 4% (and a much larger number probably would be more accurate) times $25T (which Scott says is the more accurate number than the $31T which includes money the Federal government owes itself or something like that) is , , , not sure of my zeroes here but I am coming up with a real decline in the neighborhood of $1T?  Do I have this right?

DougMacG

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"... even with the sharp increase in interest rates, the % of GDP that we pay on the national debt is 2.something% and as such, it quite manageable and that even assuming a continuation of current numbers it will take quite a while for the higher interest rates to apply to a significant percentage of the debt."

Right, but that cost does continue to increase until either it hits all of the debt, or until interest rates come down, and then there is a similar lag coming down.  The cost of the debt doesn't quickly come down.

"...interest rates on Treasuries are still well below inflation (4%+ at official rates?)  Thus, inflation reduces the burden of the debt on the Fed/the Federal Government, yes?

Yes.  Inflation devalues the debt - and that is a moral hazard because the inflation that is caused by the government helps them in this sense, and hurts almost everyone else.

The formula described assumes they can find buyers for the debt (at half the rate of inflation), and I'm not sure they can.  Those people are losing money on the investment just losing less than if they left it in dollars and didn't buy the Treasuries.

"Working at 4% (and a much larger number probably would be more accurate) times $25T (which Scott says is the more accurate number than the $31T which includes money the Federal government owes itself or something like that) is , , , not sure of my zeroes here but I am coming up with a real decline in the neighborhood of $1T?  Do I have this right?"

This math is right.  We're running (more that) a trillion dollar deficit and we're devaluing our existing debt at a trillion year therefore those two factors are a breakeven.  Makes me wonder what's missing in those numbers.

Look at debt service over time.  4% of 25 trillion is 1 trillion interest (20% of our current tax revenues.  5% of 27 trillion is 1.35 trillion.  6% of 30 trillion is 1.8 trillion in just debt service with the magic of compounding. 
(The cost of servicing the debt in 2019 was about 500 billion?) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4258513-cost-of-servicing-u-s-federal-debt
Linear increases in spending, deficits, inflation and interest rates make for geometric increases in debt burden.  Wait until the spiraling sets in and see what happens next.  It becomes unmanageable fast.

If you keep the deficit spending faucet on, if inflation spirals upward, if interest rates keep going up, if total debt keeps going up, and so on, then what happens?  It gets out of control fast, and yes, it can happen here.

For one thing, we won't be the world's reserve for very long in this scenario.

This has to find an equilibrium, a balance point, to survive.

At some point the spenders HAVE TO find discipline, the inflation / devaluation of the currency HAS TO get under control.  If it doesn't, then you have what has happened so many other places, so many other times.

Look at what Scott Grannis wrote about Argentina.  Look at what happened in Venezuela.  And a hundred other places.  Venezuela was rich.  Argentina should be rich.  Their policy makers have let them down and it's a human tragedy.

To sum it up, being broke sucks, and destroying the value of your currency will make you broke.  That's my read of it.

If your have to have discipline sometime, wouldn't it be easier to get spending discipline and inflation under control now, ahead of the spiraling, before total collapse, than after it is all out of control?  If so then why not make our deficits at least gradually lower each year, if not approaching zero?  Why not get inflation way below 2% now, if you have to get a handle on it sometime?  Or you will die as a society, die broke. 
« Last Edit: October 31, 2022, 11:34:11 PM by DougMacG »

ccp

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2287 on: November 01, 2022, 08:12:37 AM »
we all know the problem is spiraling medicare and Soc Sec costs
with more and more people going on the roles faster then coming off

every politician knows to suggest we make some changes will automatically cause the other side to spread fear and anger among those who receive these

and then get wiped out the next election

so we are screwed

I am in favor of raising the age people can receive benefits but that is probably not enough.

we should let medicare in my view negotiating discounts on very expensive drugs
too.

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2288 on: November 03, 2022, 04:30:28 AM »
Green shoots ?


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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2289 on: November 03, 2022, 05:09:57 AM »
From your lips to God's ears!

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2290 on: November 05, 2022, 07:06:42 AM »
For a long time now, I have not been a fan of ETH. If you do research on OFAC compliance, you will know ETH is bad karma. https://www.mevwatch.info/is a good place to start.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2022, 07:08:59 AM by ya »

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CBDC
« Reply #2291 on: November 05, 2022, 09:07:43 AM »
« Last Edit: November 05, 2022, 01:46:45 PM by Crafty_Dog »

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WSJ: Bitcoin mining machines selling at deep discount
« Reply #2292 on: November 06, 2022, 03:11:28 AM »


Bitcoin-Mining Machines: For Sale on Deep Discount
Unprofitable miners have become forced sellers of their own crypto equipment

There has always been a secondary market for the specialized computers used to process and record bitcoin transactions, often called mining rigs.
PHOTO: CHRISTINNE MUSCHI/BLOOMBERG NEWS
By Paul VignaFollow
Nov. 5, 2022 8:13 am ET

There’s a fire sale on bitcoin-mining hardware.

The most efficient bitcoin-mining machines are selling for 77% less than last year. The machines, used to process transactions, currently cost about $24 per 100 “terahashes,” a measure of the machine’s computing power, according to mining-services firm Luxor Technology Corp. Last year the same machines cost about $106.

Mining companies like Core Scientific Inc. CORZ -10.99%decrease; red down pointing triangle expanded rapidly during the bull run, sometimes borrowing hundreds of millions to buy hardware and build warehouses to house the hardware. Those operations were profitable when bitcoin and crypto were booming.

Once the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, risk assets became less attractive. Tech stocks and cryptocurrencies alike fell sharply. When bitcoin crashed—it’s currently down about 70% from a year ago—mining companies’ expenses, especially their debt payments, overwhelmed their revenue. For some, their only move to raise cash right now is to sell their hardware.


One of the largest mining companies in the world, Core Scientific, on Wednesday announced that it wouldn’t make payments on “several of its equipment and other financings,” as it expects to run out of cash by the end of the year and is exploring its options. The stock plunged amid bankruptcy fears. On Friday, it was trading at just 16 cents, down almost 99% year to date.

Other mining companies have also seen stark declines in their stock value. TeraWulf Inc. is down 93% year to date. Stronghold Digital Mining Inc. is down 94%. Riot Blockchain Inc. is down 74%. Hut 8 Mining Corp. is down 70%. Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. is down 67%.

Sometimes the miners are selling hardware they just got. Argo Blockchain PLC last week said it would sell 3,800 brand-new machines—equipment it hadn’t even taken out of their boxes—to raise capital.

Sellers like Argo are dominating the market right now, said Luxor’s chief operating officer, Ethan Vera. Luxor runs a trading desk that brokers deals for the equipment.

He reckoned there were only about three dozen large buyers in the Western Hemisphere. “Almost everyone’s a seller,” he said.

There has always been a secondary market for the specialized computers used to process and record bitcoin transactions, often called mining rigs or ASICs, which stands for application-specific integrated circuit.


The fallout is attracting distressed-asset buyers. Grayscale Investments is a money manager best known for its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, a fund that launched in 2013 and has $13 billion in assets under management. The firm set up a fund to buy and operate these discount-rate mining rigs. The fund is currently seeking investors and asking for a minimum $25,000 investment. Buyers of the fund will get an ongoing share of the profit from the mining operation it will set up with the purchased equipment.


Coinbase went public with a highly anticipated listing in 2021, but as the crypto market crashed, the company’s share price dropped by more than 80%. Now it’s working to diversify its revenue. WSJ’s Paul Vigna explains what went wrong. Illustration: Jacob Reynolds
“The industry as a whole is under pressure, but investors are looking at it as an opportunity,” said Grayscale Chief Executive Michael Sonnenshein.

Other companies buying mining equipment include Bitdeer Technologies, a firm founded by Jihan Wu, who previously founded Bitmain, one of the largest mining-equipment companies. Bitdeer is setting up a $250 million fund to buy and operate mining equipment.

Mining can still be profitable for companies that don’t have high debt loads, and as some miners shut down, others are filling the void. A measure of the total computing power on the bitcoin network, called the hashrate, has recently been hitting record highs, according to Blockchain.com, a sign more machines are being put online.

Newer, more efficient and ultimately more profitable machines are contributing to the hashrate rise, said Andy Long, chief executive of mining company White Rock.

Jeffrey Burkey, who runs the ASIC trading desk for Foundry, another mining-services firm, said activity on his desk has picked up markedly over the past week or so. He suspects reluctant sellers holding out hope for better prices were forced by the rising hashrate to finally just capitulate and sell.

“It ground the miners to a point where they didn’t have a choice anymore,” he said. “In the coming weeks, it’s going to get even crazier.”

Write to Paul Vigna at Paul.Vigna@wsj.com

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2293 on: November 06, 2022, 06:17:32 AM »
Paul Vigna from the WSJ is a known anti-bitcoiner (he likely missed the cheap BTC and has been sore ever since). Yes, BTC miners are suffering because the hash rate (computing needed) keeps going up (i.e. energy costs to mine BTC are rising), some have gone bankrupt. But mining machines prices vary, as BTC price rises, these same machines can cost north of 10-15,000$ each. To keep up with mining costs, miners buy newer ASICs which are faster/more efficient and sell their old machines which are less profitable to run. Another reason for the hash rate going up could be that some nation states with cheap energy may be getting into the act, think Russia.

Sooner or later, BTC Price will match Hash rate.

https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=Miners&m=mining.HashRateMean

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2294 on: November 06, 2022, 07:35:59 AM »
To be clear, I'm too clueless to have an agenda here.  I simply posted the article because it seemed relevant.  Thanks for fleshing out the context.

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2295 on: November 06, 2022, 11:21:57 AM »
No worries...not everyone is familiar with Paul Vigna :-)

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2296 on: November 06, 2022, 05:06:42 PM »
BTC is volatile, be careful.


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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2297 on: November 06, 2022, 07:09:04 PM »
If they go down, it will cause a temporary downdraft for all crypto...just like the other scams such as Celsius, 3 Arrows etc.

https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/is-alameda-research-insolvent

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WSJ
« Reply #2298 on: November 09, 2022, 01:34:15 PM »
The sell-off in stocks accelerated into the close as a shake-up in the crypto world weighed on investor sentiment broadly.

A deal by crypto exchange Binance to save rival FTX crumbled Wednesday, sending shockwaves across more growth-oriented areas of the market. FTX succumbed Tuesday to a sudden liquidity crunch and agreed to be taken over Binance. But by Wednesday afternoon, Binance announced it would walk away from the deal, saying FTX’s “issues are beyond our control or ability to help.”

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The FTX news “could certainly be impacting risk appetite” among investors Wednesday, said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird. “It keeps investors on edge of what else could be lurking out there, especially if the Fed intends to continue tightening at the current pace.”

Bitcoin fell roughly 14% from its 5 p.m. ET Tuesday price to trade at $16,029. Ethereum also fell around 14% from its 5 p.m. ET price. Meanwhile, FTX’s FTT token continued its sharp tumble. It has lost roughly 63% in the past 24 hours, CoinDesk data show, as the fallout from its liquidity crisis grows.

Stocks with ties to cryptocurrencies also slid. Cryptocurrency exchange competitor Coinbase Global shares fell 9.5%. Robinhood Markets declined 14%. Earlier this year, Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX, unveiled a roughly $648 million investment in Robinhood in exchange for 7.6% of the company’s Class A shares. He said in an interview earlier this year that FTX was open to partnerships with Robinhood.   

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