Author Topic: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold  (Read 559710 times)

ya

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Please see projected baseline  monthly returns for BTC. We are in the 5th epoch. Note the Standard Deviation too. The full article can be read here. BTC follows the power law, will post it  later. Per the article, the CAGR is 35 %/year for the next 4 years. This jives with the calculator that I posted earlier. https://substack.com/home/post/p-144303111

« Last Edit: May 05, 2024, 06:08:00 AM by ya »

DougMacG

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Video at link.  THIS is the President's chief 'economic' adviser, (he holds a degree in social work).  Asked the simplest of questions. [We spend 40% more than we take in.]  We print money, why do we borrow at all?

This is sort of the, mommy where do babies come from question.

https://twitter.com/FindingMoneyDoc/status/1786050601236779078

Would you put all your trust and the full faith and credit of the United States in the hands of this man?

He doesn't need a degree in economics because there really isn't that 6pmmuch to learn??

He refers to MMT, which seems to be the groundwork for no constraints spending:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_monetary_theory

Source video:  https://findingmoneyfilm.com/
« Last Edit: May 05, 2024, 07:01:12 AM by DougMacG »

ccp

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child: where does money come from ?
« Reply #3002 on: May 05, 2024, 06:13:49 AM »
Money doesn't grow on trees.

Bernstein:

Money is made on government printing presses.  (falsely!)

ya

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ya

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Now that April is over, there are multiple reports of this fund or that adding BTC to their portfolios. The most interesting one is below from Europe. These UCIT funds are 12 Trillion Euros in assets, even a percentage or two, could have massive effects. HK is discussing with China to allow mainland chinese to buy BTC ETF's. Things are moving, just slowly.

https://twitter.com/paddi_hansen/status/1788877780215591137

ccp

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Trump is coming around to BTC
« Reply #3006 on: May 10, 2024, 05:22:01 AM »
" Speaking to Fox News ahead of the state's Republican Primary, Trump explained that "many people are embracing" Bitcoin and he's "seeing people wanting to pay [with] Bitcoin," and that he can "live with it one way or the other."

 :-D

Body-by-Guinness

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Inflation: The Gift that Keeps Giving
« Reply #3007 on: May 13, 2024, 04:17:06 PM »
The Biden admin sure if fond of self-inflicted wounds, with inflation caused by proliferate spending serving as a case in point:

https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2024/05/13/how-dare-you-consumers-believe-their-own-lyin-eyes-instead-of-bls-gimmicks-n4928995

Body-by-Guinness

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Restaurant Apocalypse
« Reply #3008 on: May 13, 2024, 08:51:06 PM »
« Last Edit: May 14, 2024, 08:48:36 AM by Body-by-Guinness »

Crafty_Dog

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BBG:  A good article, but to keep this thread focused but may I suggest the "Political Economics" as a good "catch all" thread.

Body-by-Guinness

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BBG:  A good article, but to keep this thread focused but may I suggest the "Political Economics" as a good "catch all" thread.

Done, though inflation is the prime mover in the piece, hence placing the post here.

ya

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Paul Ryan on Stablecoins. This makes sense.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1790540747466223921

At this time the US is concerned that many bond auctions are not going well, i.e. people are not buying US treasuries. Many countries like China are selling, Japan wants to sell, and others are worried about holding, because the US govt can confiscate them. Yet the more money we print (which is necessary to pay off our debt in cheaper dollars), the more the value of the $ declines and people want to buy less US $/treasuries.

The USDT (Tether) stable coin is most popular because it is backed by US Treasuries, and that has been audited. USDT can be printed at will, but the twist here is that they buy an equal number of US Treasuries. tether has now become one of the very large holders of US treasuries (i.e. a new demand source), it is international and not a US company. 1 USDT=1 US$, this makes it very useful for purchasing crypto, particularly outside the US as the exchange risk of the $ declining in local currency is no longer there. USDT can also be moved across crypto exchanges very easily, while the $ is cumbersome with reporting requirements and delays.

Paul Ryan is pointing out a new demand source worth Trillions, who will buy US Treasuries, there are other stable coins too, some from the US (less popular). this solves the immediate problem of the US finding buyers of Treasuries. I think this is a great source of new demand, but ultimately the US will overprint and no one will buy USDT! either. At that time, the US will be ready to move to a Bitcoin Standard, which cannot be overprinted. I think things are moving along well.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2024, 05:01:06 AM by ya »

ya

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ya

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"Now that the pension fund manager of the State of Wisconsin has disclosed its $162m #Bitcoin allocation, it's only a matter of time before every single state pension fund makes the same move.

Then every university endowment.
Every family office.
Every wealth manager.
Fund manager.
Every corporate treasury."

Crafty_Dog

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I didn't quite follow PR's discussion of Stablecoins.

ya

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We had discussed that after April, the filings would show who's buying BTC ETF's.

Here's a thread by Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg

https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1790885903084216627

ya

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I didn't quite follow PR's discussion of Stablecoins.

See above

ya

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Watch the inflows. Things are moving again


Crafty_Dog

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BTC’s big new HODLer is … Wisconsin?!

After a week of lower volatility, crypto prices spiked on Wednesday as new U.S. consumer price index (CPI) figures showed inflation easing slightly. One key index, “core inflation,” which removes food and energy costs, hit its lowest rate since April 2021.

As markets of all kinds got a boost, BTC climbed toward $65,000 and ETH approached $3,000.

Meanwhile, the BTC ETF category saw weekly inflows return for the first time in a month and futures markets continue to suggest a bullish path for BTC, with many traders betting on a new all-time high north of $75,000 by the end of June.

Here are three more crypto stories to know this week.

1. Wisconsin reveals $160 million crypto portfolio

The spot BTC ETFs that began trading in January were created in part to make crypto a more viable option for big-money institutional investors like pension funds.

According to a new SEC filing, that promise is already coming true. The State of Wisconsin Investment Board — which manages state-employee retirement funds among other assets — disclosed that as of the end of March, it held around $160 million in spot BTC ETFs (split between BlackRock’s and Grayscale’s funds).

Those weren’t the board’s only crypto-related investments. According to the Block, “shares of other cryptocurrency firms such as Coinbase, Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, Block, Cipher Mining, Cleanspark and MicroStrategy were also in the Board's portfolio.” 

Follow the leader... According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, other big institutional investors are likely to follow in Wisconsin’s footsteps. “Normally you don't get these big fish institutions … for a year or so (when the ETF gets more liquidity),” he noted, “but as we've seen these are no ordinary launches. Good sign, expect more, as institutions tend to move in herds.”

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Crypto PACs
« Reply #3019 on: May 21, 2024, 10:45:40 AM »


The Crypto Industry Is Trying to Elect Political Allies. The Stakes Couldn’t Be Higher.
Coinbase, Kraken and others are fighting for survival after a regulatory crackdown

ALEXANDRA CITRIN-SAFADI/WSJ; ISTOCK
By Caitlin Ostroff and Vicky Ge Huang
May 21, 2024 8:00 am ET




Crypto companies are fighting for survival after a regulatory crackdown. Their latest strategy: spending big on this year’s elections.

The industry has amassed a formidable war chest and is working to elect politicians it sees as allies and defeat those who are critical. A trio of super political-action committees has together raised more than $85 million, one of the largest amounts among PACs engaged in the 2024 elections.

Fairshake, along with two affiliated super PACs, raised the funds from an industry A-list, including crypto exchange Coinbase COIN 1.18%increase; green up pointing triangle Global and Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest. The push is being powered by a surge in crypto prices.

“This is the first time we’ve really had all the pieces in place,” said Kristin Smith, chief executive of the Blockchain Association, an industry group.


Kristin Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association. PHOTO: ERIC LEE/BLOOMBERG NEWS
Wealthy investors and big companies have long used campaign donations and lobbyists to win influence in Washington. What sets the crypto industry’s push apart this year is that its ability to keep operating in the U.S. is at stake. With regulators filing civil lawsuits alleging that the industry is running afoul of securities laws and prosecutors unsealing criminal indictments, some companies have been looking overseas for growth or relocating entirely.

Earlier this month, former President Donald Trump was asked what he would do if re-elected to stop crypto companies from leaving the U.S.

“If we are going to embrace it, then we have to let them be here,” Trump said in support of the industry at Mar-a-Lago, his social club and part-time residence in Florida.

Fairshake hasn’t yet weighed in on the presidential election.


Previous attempts by crypto advocates to influence elections haven’t been as well-funded. In 2022, FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried contributed to a PAC that ultimately raised $12 million. A federal judge sentenced Bankman-Fried to a quarter-century in prison on several counts of fraud earlier this year.

This cycle is different. The industry has banded together after a string of lawsuits from the Securities and Exchange Commission. Crypto firms have brought on more lobbyists, working to convince lawmakers that Bankman-Fried’s FTX isn’t indicative of the industry.

Fairshake, launched late last year, has been leading the efforts. The group brings together the major players in crypto, including the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, venture-capital firm Andreessen Horowitz and stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Financial.

The efforts so far have focused on Congress. The industry is supporting legislation that would regulate issuers of stablecoins, or dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies, which make it easier to trade in and out of the market. The legislation would set rules for issuers, including requiring that tokens are completely backed by reserves.


Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase Global, spoke at a Stand With Crypto rally in March. PHOTO: MARK ABRAMSON/BLOOMBERG NEWS
Fairshake built its war chest through both cash and cryptocurrency donations. Phil Potter, the former chief strategy officer at crypto exchange Bitfinex, donated 33 bitcoins to the PAC last summer, equivalent to about $1 million. Those tokens were sold for cash, a Fairshake spokesman said.

To date, Fairshake said it has spent $25 million in the current election cycle. Earlier this year, it unleashed its biggest spending spree to date, aimed at defeating Katie Porter, a California congresswoman who launched a Senate bid. The group deployed $10 million on ads against Porter, a beloved figure among many liberals and a critic of how much energy consumption bitcoin requires.

The ads by Fairshake focused on topics that resonate with voters more widely, claiming Porter took cash from “big banks, big pharma and big oil,” not on Porter’s crypto stance. Porter later lost the primary. 

Porter said that Fairshake isn’t engaging in genuine dialogue with candidates, and that the group is just trying to scare elected leaders into accepting their agenda.

It is unclear to what degree Fairshake’s efforts affected the outcome of the race. But the crypto industry is increasingly open about its desire to influence campaigns.

Stand With Crypto, a nonprofit spun off from Coinbase, recently announced the creation of its affiliated PAC. It also grades various politicians. President Biden, whose administration has waged a crackdown on crypto, got an “F.”

Meanwhile, presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. won better marks after calling crypto a “bulwark against government and corporate expansion” at a conference last year. His grade from the group: an “A.”