Author Topic: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold  (Read 744780 times)

ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3300 on: December 21, 2024, 06:29:01 AM »
I would like to also discuss Microstrategy (MSTR) a  BTC company, its 3x more volatile than BTC, so its not for the faint of heart. I expect this company to become larger than Apple, Nvidia etc within 5 years. They have a unique money making strategy and own more BTC than any country including the US and China combined!, and run by billionaire Michael Saylor the reigning Dean of BTC and most trusted voices in BTC. Again, if you can hold for 5 years, this would work out, but its very volatile, so please do your own research. DYOR.

ccp

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3301 on: December 21, 2024, 12:07:57 PM »
 I read they own 479,000 BTC or essentially ~ 1/20 of supply if that was correct.

Crafty_Dog

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Some more hopium
« Reply #3302 on: December 21, 2024, 04:29:57 PM »

Crafty_Dog

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ya

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Crafty_Dog

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Crafty_Dog

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Trump wants all BTC mined in US
« Reply #3307 on: January 04, 2025, 10:03:18 AM »
Currently 40% and we lack the electricity, but his eagerness is a very good sign.

https://decrypt.co/299382/trump-wants-bitcoin-mined-us-is-it-possible



Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3310 on: January 10, 2025, 02:35:37 PM »
Second

Oil has moved briskly from $70 to $76 and gold is up to $2717.

Body-by-Guinness

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Quantifying the Impacts of a Rising Minimum Wage
« Reply #3311 on: January 10, 2025, 03:02:45 PM »
Interesting approach taken to suss out the negative impacts of minimum wage laws:

More Hidden Costs of Minimum Wage Hikes: A Randomized Control Trial
Cato @ Liberty / by Sophia Bagley / Jan 10, 2025 at 10:55 AM
Sophia Bagley and Ryan Bourne

This year kicks off with minimum wage hikes across 21 states. Economists have long documented that while minimum wage increases often boost wages for those who remain employed, there are no free lunches. Extensive research shows minimum wage increases to high levels tend to hurt new and low-skilled workers as businesses respond by cutting hours or hiring opportunities.

Moreover, newer research has found that businesses may use other margins of adjustment to cope with wage floors than layoffs or hour cuts. From reducing workplace perks and non-pay benefits to favoring seasoned employees over newbies, businesses are finding creative ways to soften the blow. These adjustments erode job quality and often shrink opportunities for the very workers minimum wage hikes aim to help.

Quantifying these hidden shifts is a nightmare. Most data doesn’t capture these subtle changes, meaning that the existing literature produces different results based on which groups are studied and how labor market health is factored in. Enter John Horton from NYU. His latest paper in the American Economic Review sheds light on minimum wage hikes through an innovative methodology, revealing that low-productivity workers might be hit harder by minimum wage laws than economists typically tend to conclude.

Horton ran a randomized control experiment on a large online labor platform where firms post jobs for tasks like data entry, graphic design, or programming. Workers bid for jobs by proposing hourly wages, with firms selecting these workers based on their applications.

The experiment assigned around 160,000 hourly job openings to four groups: a control group with no wage floor (a minimum wage of $0) and three treatment groups with minimum wages of $2, $3, or $4 per hour. Random assignment ensured comparable groups, while the platform’s software enforced minimum wages without notifying participants, thus maintaining the integrity of the randomized trial. Later, the platform imposed a market-wide minimum wage, this time announcing it beforehand. This second phase allowed Horton to study how firms and workers react when a wage floor is uniformly applied—much like in the real world.

His findings were quite striking:

Hired workers saw their wages rise.
Higher minimum wage rates led to fewer hires.
Hours worked dipped, even at the lowest wage increases.
Most of the hour cuts came from firms swapping out low-productivity workers for their more efficient counterparts, speeding up task completion.
Simply put, pricier labor means employers want less of it. Faced with higher hourly wage costs, they also leaned towards hiring more productive workers, which accounted for nearly half the hour reductions. For many low-skilled workers, a high minimum wage could thus mean being booted out of the job market entirely. Even if overall employment doesn’t drop when a wage floor is raised, those lowest-skilled may still face significant harm, getting edged out by more experienced employees.

Horton’s experiment stands out because, unlike traditional studies, he could track workers’ real-time productivity, looking at the distributional impact of the policy by worker skill level. His randomized research design also cuts through potential biases that often skew minimum wage research.

So, what’s the key takeaway? Horton’s findings present an important question: Have other researchers been underestimating how rising wage floors impact low-skilled workers? If his results echo across other labor markets, studies claiming no overall disemployment effects from minimum wages might be masking a harsh reality: hidden beneath the aggregate numbers, lower-skilled workers getting replaced by higher-skilled ones.

It’s another reminder that, even if they don’t cut jobs, many of the ways firms adjust to higher wage floors can still hurt the least experienced workers.

https://www.cato.org/blog/more-hidden-costs-minimum-wage-hikes-randomized-control-trial

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3312 on: January 10, 2025, 03:42:54 PM »
Well nuanced.  Precisely the sort of work that CATO does best.

Crafty_Dog

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FO: FDIC warned against destroying evidence about crypto enforcement
« Reply #3313 on: January 17, 2025, 06:59:07 AM »
(1) LAWMAKER WARNS FDIC AGAINST DESTROYING EVIDENCE: Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) warned the Federal Deposit Insurance Company (FDIC) not to destroy evidence of crypto currency enforcement activities or harass whistleblowers, and to preserve documents related to Signature and Silvergate Banks.

FDIC whistleblowers allege the agency was destroying evidence and threatening legal action against staff for speaking out.
Why It Matters: FDIC documentation, which whistleblowers allege is being destroyed, is likely the closest to a “smoking gun” on debanking available. Shortly after the 2024 election Marc Andreessen pointed out that the Biden administration was debanking cryptocurrency firms and executives. However, the Biden administration was also targeting conservative and Christian groups and nonprofits with the Politically Exposed Person designation, causing political opponents to be debanked. – R.C.

Crafty_Dog

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FO: Trump: Crypto a national priority
« Reply #3314 on: January 17, 2025, 07:00:28 AM »
second

4) TRUMP TO DESIGNATE CRYPTO A NATIONAL PRIORITY: President-elect Donald Trump is planning an executive order that will designate cryptocurrency as a national priority, and direct federal agencies to work with the cryptocurrency industry. The executive order could also direct federal agencies to review digital assets policies and pause any legal actions targeting the crypto industry.

ya

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ccp

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3316 on: January 23, 2025, 06:26:00 PM »
like Trump's policy on crypto but I definitely do not like this:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mockery-trumps-meme-coin-sparks-164420587.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

What a scam  and disgrace   


ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3317 on: January 24, 2025, 03:24:33 AM »
Agree, these are all likely to be worth nothing. Trump got funding from BTCoiners and shitcoiners, he is taking the approach to let America be the crypto capital of the world and let the market play kingmaker.

ccp

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ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3320 on: January 25, 2025, 01:48:29 PM »
TechDev's work below as well as Martin Armstrong's Socrates arrays (different technique), have suggested a first peak in the end of Feb/March 2025 for many months now.

« Last Edit: January 25, 2025, 01:51:52 PM by ya »

Crafty_Dog

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Body-by-Guinness

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Gold v. Crypto & the US AI Bet
« Reply #3322 on: January 26, 2025, 08:10:55 PM »
If AI tanks those holding gold win big time, while the US loses:

https://asiatimes.com/2025/01/gold-glitters-at-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it/
« Last Edit: February 14, 2025, 09:26:54 AM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3323 on: January 27, 2025, 05:23:35 AM »
Very interesting.

So why the simultaneous crash of BTC today?   Isn't a/the central point that it is immune to the monetary printing press?


ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3325 on: February 01, 2025, 05:36:01 AM »
Very interesting.

So why the simultaneous crash of BTC today?   Isn't a/the central point that it is immune to the monetary printing press?

Its all about liquidity. BTC is available liquidity on the weekends, in preparation for Mondays down day.

« Last Edit: February 01, 2025, 08:48:52 AM by ya »

ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3326 on: February 01, 2025, 05:36:35 AM »


Body-by-Guinness

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So Simple Even Dem Pols Should Understand It
« Reply #3328 on: February 01, 2025, 04:38:13 PM »
What happens when you print $5 trillion?

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1885197159051477462

ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3329 on: February 04, 2025, 04:51:24 AM »
The best BTC model currently is the Quintile Regression Model. If you want to go by the CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), eg last 5 years CAGR has been 68 %, that is very promising. Eitherway, very conservatively you are looking at 500K/corn in 5 years



ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3330 on: February 04, 2025, 05:08:52 AM »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3331 on: February 04, 2025, 12:11:19 PM »
Gold $2875.

Crafty_Dog

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Decrypt: Forked Tongue Warren surprises
« Reply #3332 on: February 05, 2025, 04:47:22 PM »
 What you need to know
The crypto industry got some validation this morning as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), who has been a staunch adversary, said during a Senate Banking Committee hearing that digital asset firms should not be debanked.

“Debanking is a real problem,” Warren, the top Democrat on the powerful Senate Banking Committee, said during the hearing. “This shouldn’t be happening, and we need to figure out why, and who is responsible.”

Perhaps less surprising was the fact she used the opportunity to advocate for the importance of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that President Donald Trump shut down earlier this week. Warren originally proposed the idea in 2007 and saw it come to fruition in 2011.

“If the president is serious about stopping debanking, then he needs a strong CFPB as his partner to get this done,” Warren added.

DougMacG

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Re: Decrypt: Forked Tongue Warren surprises
« Reply #3333 on: February 05, 2025, 06:48:04 PM »
Then it closes with,
" he needs a strong CFPB as his partner to get this done,” Warren added.

Empowering her pet government agency.

 https://2020.elizabethwarren.com/cfpb

Crafty_Dog

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ya

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BTC talk
« Reply #3336 on: February 09, 2025, 04:30:12 PM »
Great talk on BTC by Michael Saylor
https://x.com/i/status/1833534182703903191
« Last Edit: February 10, 2025, 07:19:04 AM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: The End of Crypto's Choke Point
« Reply #3337 on: February 11, 2025, 08:21:45 AM »


The End of Crypto’s ‘Choke Point’
Team Biden’s debanking of digital-asset firms gives way to Trump’s embrace of a crucial new industry.
By Mike Lempres
Feb. 10, 2025 4:34 pm ET


Washington is entering a new era. The federal government is finally changing course after four years of vilifying cryptocurrencies and using legally dubious policies to force companies to bend to its will. The Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress are embracing digital assets and taking steps to ensure the U.S. is a leader in unleashing crypto innovations that could bolster our financial system and global competitiveness. By contrast, the Biden administration’s scorched-earth tactics made the U.S. a laggard in a crucial emerging industry.

The change is illustrated by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Under his leadership Fed regulators effectively prohibited banks from serving digital-asset companies. But now Mr. Powell says the Fed supports innovation. He recently disputed that the central bank takes actions “that would cause banks to terminate customers who are perfectly legal just because of excess risk aversion maybe related to regulation and supervision.”

But debanking did happen, and we must understand how and why to make sure it doesn’t happen again. President Trump took an important step last month when he issued an executive order prohibiting any future “Operation Choke Point” activities—which is how regulators under President Biden forced banks to deny services to digital-asset firms. Congress will continue the effort this week when the Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee hold hearings to investigate the debanking that took place during the last administration.

As chairman of Silvergate Bank, I experienced debanking and its consequences. Typically, regulators will require banks to drop individual customers. In the case of Silvergate, the bank was effectively prohibited from carrying out its business model of serving digital-asset companies.

For 10 years, Silvergate followed that model under the review of its regulators. After a decade of growth, innovation and compliant operations, regulators expressed concern about banks’ concentration in serving the crypto industry and took steps that hamstrung banks’ abilities to serve crypto customers. These actions ultimately killed Silvergate, forcing it to wind down and leaving nearly 1,700 fully compliant digital-asset companies scrambling for banking relationships that would keep them in business.

Silvergate wasn’t alone. Signature Bank also fell victim to the government’s anticrypto crusade. Former House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank, a Signature board member, has said that regulators seized the bank in the spring of 2023 to “send a very strong anticrypto message.” The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. orchestrated a deal where a New York Community Bancorp subsidiary took on all of Signature’s deposits—except $4 billion that was held by crypto companies. Simply put, digital assets were under attack.

This regulator-led onslaught hit Silvergate in early 2023 and followed the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Silvergate was a double victim of the FTX fraud. As the Justice Department has said, FTX engaged in lies and deception to open Silvergate accounts. Then, FTX’s demise set off a crisis of confidence in digital assets that put significant strain on Silvergate, its customers and the entire cryptocurrency industry. But Silvergate successfully handled this “run on the bank” and returned nearly $10 billion to depositors. The bank weathered the storm, stabilized and was prepared to keep supporting the digital-asset industry.

Regulators made that impossible. As Silvergate put it in September bankruptcy filings, “increased supervisory pressure on Silvergate and other banks focused on servicing crypto-asset businesses forced Silvergate Bank to a point where it would have needed to remake its business model.” In the same document, the bank described a “shift in regulatory approach that made Silvergate’s business model untenable.”

It has been reported that regulators demanded Silvergate and other banks cap crypto deposits at 15% of total deposits. I can’t disclose confidential supervisory communications between Silvergate and its regulators. But I can confirm that 99% of Silvergate’s deposits were tied to digital-asset companies and that the shift in regulatory posture forced us to make the difficult decision to wind down. Notably, Silvergate and other banks had no opportunity to contest regulators’ actions because the crypto crackdown wasn’t done through the formal rulemaking process that allows for public comment. Instead, the crackdown was largely hidden from the public and crypto firms.

But regulators still weren’t done with Silvergate. Following a predictable round of performance politics by the likes of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the bank was fined $63 million last year by the Fed, the Securities and Exchange Commission and California’s banking regulator over alleged deficiencies in its transaction monitoring.

Despite the struggles faced by other crypto-friendly banks, Silvergate didn’t fail. It voluntarily liquidated in a manner that protected depositors. Our priority throughout was preserving value for Silvergate customers and shareholders. I’m proud to say that’s what we did. As of November 2023, Silvergate had fully repaid all deposits to our customers.

The nation needs more banks like Silvergate. I am confident that Mr. Trump’s stance toward cryptocurrencies and his focus on rooting out debanking practices will allow banks to provide financial services to well-run companies that expand the economy and create jobs. Those objectives were undermined over the past four years by an overreaching government that stifled innovation and punished success. It’s past time for a reset.

Mr. Lempres was chairman of Silvergate Bank.

Crafty_Dog

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Crafty_Dog

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ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3340 on: February 15, 2025, 11:30:10 AM »
The institutions are coming...Abu Dhabi's Sovereign Fund also bought 436 Million $ worth of ETF's.

ccp

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Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3342 on: February 16, 2025, 08:47:24 AM »
YA:  Would this be like the idea underlying the book Softwar that you recommended here sometime ago?