Author Topic: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold  (Read 521285 times)

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2300 on: November 11, 2022, 04:37:04 AM »
I know the BTC situation looks dire, but the data shows that BTC are being withdrawn from exchanges into cold storage (hardware wallets), by BTC holders of all sizes. This depletes the available supply on exchanges, which is positive for prices. I expect next top in 2025.

https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1591005056673124352/photo/1

ccp

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one silver lining in the exchange crash
« Reply #2301 on: November 11, 2022, 05:17:24 AM »
I didn't realize the big drop was due to the crash of Bankman Fried's exchange - the second biggest Democrat donor behind Soros .....




ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2302 on: November 11, 2022, 05:29:19 AM »
This what I posted a 5 days back, Nov 6. We are now waiting for the Contagion in crypto to subside.

"If they go down, it will cause a temporary downdraft for all crypto...just like the other scams such as Celsius, 3 Arrows etc.

https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/is-alameda-research-insolvent "

« Last Edit: November 11, 2022, 05:32:44 AM by ya »

Crafty_Dog

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Coinbase
« Reply #2303 on: November 12, 2022, 09:17:34 AM »

Coinbase
A more transparent and secure crypto exchange
Hi Marc F,

With the recent liquidity issues in the crypto markets this week, we want to reiterate how Coinbase’s business is different and ultimately better protects your account & digital assets.

For the last 10 years, we have built Coinbase in a way that allows us to be transparent about our track record and balance sheet strength, and effectively and prudently manage risk for our 108+ million customers and ourselves.

See below for more information about how we keep your funds safe:

Healthy Financials

Our public, audited financials confirm our financial strength and ample liquidity — we largely hold our assets in USD. We ended Q3 with $5.6 billion in total available USD resources, including $5 billion in cash and cash equivalents.

We hold your Assets 1:1

Coinbase holds customer assets 1:1, and we won't lend those assets without your consent. This means funds are available to our customers at any time.

Transparent

We are the largest publicly traded crypto exchange in the world, and we've been around for a long time, serving customers for over 10 years. Our financial statements are public and released quarterly.

U.S. Based

Coinbase is based and incorporated in the U.S. We are seeking to work within the U.S. system, because we believe that transparency and trust are essential.

Your Funds, Your Choice

Coinbase doesn't use, or lend, your assets without your permission. Also, we offer one of the most secure and multifaceted risk management programs designed to protect our customers' assets. This blog post details our prudent approach to risk management and how we keep our customers safe.

Industry-Leading Security

The technology that powers our platform was developed with industry-leading security and encryption at its core. Our security team is constantly working to make sure you and your assets are protected from emerging threats. Learn more.

We are confident about the future of crypto and appreciate the opportunity to earn your trust every day.

Sincerely,
The Coinbase Team

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2304 on: November 13, 2022, 06:23:42 AM »
No exchange is protected from government overreach
,liens etc.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2022, 01:54:13 PM by ya »

DougMacG

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2305 on: November 13, 2022, 12:16:18 PM »
Each time the government’s paid interest rate rises by 1%, it adds $2.6 trillion in federal budget interest costs over the decade.
https://nypost.com/2022/11/11/a-gop-run-house-will-fix-inflation-simply-by-stopping-bidens-enormous-spending/

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2306 on: November 13, 2022, 01:17:44 PM »
Yes, with the current interest rate of 4 % and rising, 31T$ deficit, thats over 1.2 T$/year. This is more than the defense expenditure of 800 B $. With rising rates, taxes will decline as companies stop making profit. The only saving grace is that the entire interest is not due at the same time, as the bonds roll over.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2307 on: November 13, 2022, 03:51:36 PM »
Scott Grannis says the true deficit number is $25T, because that does not include money we owe ourselves or something like that.


DougMacG

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2308 on: November 14, 2022, 08:16:32 AM »
Scott Grannis says the true deficit number is $25T, because that does not include money we owe ourselves or something like that.

And rising at > $1T /yr. and more just with spending programs already passed.

Seems like the words 'criminal negligence' should be included with numbers like these.
« Last Edit: November 14, 2022, 11:24:05 AM by DougMacG »

DougMacG

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M2 (Money Supply) rate of growth chart
« Reply #2309 on: November 14, 2022, 09:18:38 AM »
Most recent Scott Grannis post Oct 25, 2022:



[Doug]  'More money chasing fewer goods and services', why are we still chasing the more money side of it?  Time to incentivize the production of more goods and services, IMHO.

Learn from the crisis of 1979-1982.  Well described in the book, Seven Fat Years by then-WSJ Editor Robert Bartley.  Also the writings of Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Mundell.




Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2310 on: November 14, 2022, 11:08:42 AM »
YES.


ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2312 on: November 16, 2022, 04:48:37 AM »
Capitulation spike


Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2313 on: November 16, 2022, 07:13:02 AM »
You help me keep my courage up!

DougMacG

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2314 on: November 16, 2022, 08:05:18 AM »
Brian Wesbury spoke a bit on Bitcoin this morning with High Hewitt, sorry I cannot find a transcript.

He spoke very highly of the Blockchain technology and the possibility of a direct transaction far, far away without intermediaries.  Better than gold in the way the supply is limited.  He didn't know what the right value should be (no one knows).  He said governments won't let it be their reserve currency because then they can't do quantitative easing and spend without finding lenders. Was interrupted by Hewitt who is usually a good interviewer, wanted to make clear you shouldn't put your retirement money there and emphasize the fall from 60k to 16 (instead of the rise from nothing to 16k). 

I read into it Wesbury agrees with me.  It can be either a stable currency or a speculative play but not both.

Gold does have intrinsic value, more conductive than copper, less corrosive than steel, etc.  It has alternate uses to a store of value

Bias or conflict, Wesbury is at an investment house and radio shows have gold sponsors.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2022, 08:12:58 AM by DougMacG »

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2315 on: November 16, 2022, 06:40:09 PM »
You help me keep my courage up!

Unless anyone thinks BTC is going away, like other $hitcoins, one needs to hold atleast until 2025, which is 1 yr after the next halving. If you have more time, hold two full cycles and add on dips.
There are only 21 Million coins, of which 91 % have been mined, the remaining 9 % will be mined over a hundred years, There are also 8000 million people in the world, if even a small fraction want to hold BTC there is not enough. In other words, the supply of BTC is minimal. The demand for BTC (new holders keeps going up). All these scams going on are actually good for BTC, people are starting to realize that BTC and crypto are not the same.

Enjoy this 5 min video on FTXhttps://twitter.com/i/status/1593019723897131008
« Last Edit: November 16, 2022, 06:46:15 PM by ya »

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2316 on: November 16, 2022, 06:51:40 PM »
If you want to see hopium, based on what the risk guys are saying see below. Essentially, total wealth is 900 T $, if BTC can get 5 % of it, thats 45 T $, divided by 21 mill coins=2 mill/coin. Next take a guess, as to the probability of BTC reaching 2 mill/coin. In the example, Foss gives it a 10 % probability, you can give your own probability and derive your estimate.

« Last Edit: November 16, 2022, 06:54:23 PM by ya »

Crafty_Dog

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FTX-- worse than Enron
« Reply #2317 on: November 18, 2022, 06:32:54 AM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/worse-enron-new-ftx-ceo-slams-unprecedented-failure-corporate-controls?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1075

=================

Probably well worth clicking on the URL to see what the pasting below does not contain.

==================

"This Is Unprecedented": Enron Liquidator Overseeing FTX Bankruptcy Speechless: "I Have Never Seen Anything Like This"
Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, NOV 18, 2022 - 06:01 AM
A few days ago we asked how much longer do we have to wait for the "first-day affidavit" in the FTX bankruptcy, traditionally the most detailed and comprehensive summary of how any given company collapsed into Chapter 11 (and in FTX's case, Chapter 7 soon, as this will soon become a full-blown liquidation)...


... and this morning we finally got our answer when it hit the docket (22-11068, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware), almost a full week after FTX filed on Nov 11... and boy is it a doozy.


Because how else would one describe it when FTX's new CEO and liquidator, John Ray III,  who also oversaw the unwinding and liquidation of Enron, admits that "Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here."

And just in case his shock at FTX's fraud of epic proportions was not quite clear enough, he adds that "from compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented."

Courtesy of the affidavit, here is what the company's org chart looks like as of Nov 17:



According to Ray, he has located “only a fraction” of the digital assets of the FTX Group that they hope recover during the Chapter 11 bankruptcy. They’ve so far secured about $740 million of cryptocurrency in offline cold wallets, a storage method designed to prevent hacks. This is just a fraction of the $10-$50 billion in liabilities the company disclosed in its bankruptcy filing.

How do we know it's a fraud: as Ray writes on page 24, although the investigation has only begun and must run its course, it is my view based on the information obtained to date, "that many of the employees of the FTX Group, including some of its senior executives, were not aware of the shortfalls or potential commingling of digital assets." Many maybe not, but some - and certainly SBF himself - did.

It gets better: Ray said that company’s audited financial statements should not be trusted, Ray said, adding that liquidators are working to rebuild balance sheets for FTX entities from the bottom up.

FTX “did not maintain centralized control of its cash” and failed to keep an accurate list of bank accounts and account signatories, or pay sufficient attention to the creditworthiness of banking partners, according to Ray. Advisers don’t yet know how much cash FTX Group had when it filed for bankruptcy, but has found about $560 million attributable to various FTX entities so far.

Although restructuring advisers have been in control of FTX for less than a week, they’ve seen enough to depict the crypto company as a deeply flawed enterprise. Lasting records of decision making are hard to come by: Bankman-Fried often communicated through applications that auto-deleted in short order and asked employees to do the same, according to Ray.
Corporate funds of FTX Group were used to buy homes and other personal items for employees, Ray said.

Corporate funds were also used to buy homes and other personal items for employees and advisers, sometimes in their personal names.

"In the Bahamas, I understand that corporate funds of the FTX Group were used to purchase homes and other personal items for employees and advisors. I understand that there does not appear to be documentation for certain of these transactions as loans, and that certain real estate was recorded in the personal name of these employees and advisors on the records of the Bahamas," Ray said, who also noted that the company didn't have appropriate corporate governance and never held board meetings. There was no accurate list of bank accounts and account signatories, as well as insufficient attention paid to the creditworthiness of banking partners.

Ray said the company did not have “an accurate list” of its own bank accounts, or even a complete record of the people who worked for FTX (see below). He added that FTX used “an unsecured group email account” to manage the security keys for its digital assets.

The filing sheds light on the sloppy business practices, such as FTX employees asking to be paid through an online "chat" platform "where a disparate group of supervisors approved disbursements by responding with personalized emojis."

Below we excerpt some of the most notable highlights from the affidavit, which we embed at the bottom of the post and which everyone should read to get a sense of just how massive Sam Bankman-Fried's fraud was.

I have over 40 years of legal and restructuring experience. I have been the Chief Restructuring Officer or Chief Executive Officer in several of the largest corporate failures in history. I have supervised situations involving allegations of criminal activity and malfeasance (Enron). I have supervised situations involving novel financial structures (Enron and Residential Capital) and cross-border asset recovery and maximization (Nortel and Overseas Shipholding). Nearly every situation in which I have been involved has been characterized by defects of some sort in internal controls, regulatory compliance, human resources and systems integrity.
Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here. From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented.
For purposes of managing the Debtors’ affairs, I have identified four groups of businesses, which I refer to as “Silos.” These Silos include:
(a) a group composed of Debtor West Realm Shires Inc. and its Debtor and non-Debtor subsidiaries (the “WRS Silo”), which includes the businesses known as “FTX US,” “LedgerX,” “FTX US Derivatives,” “FTX US Capital Markets,” and “Embed Clearing,” among other businesses;
(b) a group composed of Debtor Alameda Research LLC and its Debtor subsidiaries (the “Alameda Silo”);
(c) a group composed of Debtor Clifton Bay Investments LLC, Debtor Clifton Bay Investments Ltd., Debtor Island Bay Ventures Inc. and Debtor FTX Ventures Ltd. (the “Ventures Silo”);
(d) a group composed of Debtor FTX Trading Ltd. and its Debtor and non-Debtor subsidiaries (the “Dotcom Silo”), including the exchanges doing business as “FTX.com” and similar exchanges in non-U.S. jurisdictions. These Silos together are referred to by me as the “FTX Group.
Each of the Silos was controlled by Mr. Bankman-Fried.2 Minority equity interests in the Silos were held by Zixiao “Gary” Wang and Nishad Singh, the co-founders of the business along with Mr. Bankman-Fried. The WRS Silo and Dotcom Silo also have third party equity investors, including investment funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds  and families. To my knowledge, no single investor other than the co-founders owns more than 2% of the
equity of any Silo.
The diagram attached as Exhibit A provides a visual summary of the Silos and the indicative assets in each Silo. Exhibit B contains a preliminary corporate structure chart. These materials were prepared at my direction based on information available at this time and are subject to revision as our investigation into the affairs of the FTX Group continues.
         

There is much more information on each of these silos in the affidavit at the bottom of this post, but what we are curious about at this stage is what the Alameda balance sheet looks like: after all, that's what started this whole avalanche in the first place. Here are the details:

The parent company and primary operating company in the Alameda Silo is Alameda Research LLC, which is organized in the State of Delaware. Before the Petition Date (as defined below), the Alameda Silo operated quantitative trading funds specializing in crypto assets. Strategies included arbitrage, market making, yield farming and trading volatility. The Alameda Silo also offered over-the-counter trading services, and made and managed other debt and equity investments. In short, the Alameda Silo was a “crypto hedge fund” with a diversified business trading and speculating in digital assets and related loans and securities for the account of its owners, Messrs. Bankman-Fried (90%) and Wang (10%).

Alameda Research LLC prepared consolidated financial statements on a quarterly basis. To my knowledge, none of these financial statements have been audited. The September 30, 2022 balance sheet for the Alameda Silo shows $13.46 billion in total assets as of its date. However, because this balance sheet was unaudited and produced while the Debtors were controlled by Mr. Bankman-Fried, I do not have confidence in it and the information therein may not be correct as of the date stated.

Remarkably, among the assets listed in the document was $4.1bn of related party loans extended by Alameda, $3.3bn of which was to Bankman-Fried both personally and to an entity he controlled. Bankman-Fried previously said that FTX had “accidentally” given $8bn of FTX customer funds to Alameda.



The highlighted "related party receivable" is notable because as footnote 3 to the table reveals, it consisted of a loan by "Euclid Way Ltd. to Paper Bird Inc. (a Debtor) of $2.3 billion" and three loans by Alameda Research Ltd.: one to Mr. Bankman-Fried, of $1 billion; one to Mr. Singh, of $543 million; and one to Ryan Salame, of $55 million.

The liabilities as of September 30, 2022 were manageable. Unfortunately, the reality is that the asset and liability numbers at the consolidated level were flipped resulting in an $8 billion hole.



The problem, as we now know, is that the value of the assets was woefully overrepresented. But we'll get to that.

First, let's look at the immediate history that led to the bankruptcy filing:

EVENTS LEADING TO CHAPTER 11 FILING

The Debtors faced a severe liquidity crisis that necessitated the filing of these Chapter 11 Cases on an emergency basis on November 11, 2022, and in the case of Debtor West Realm Shires Inc., on November 14, 2022 (collectively, the “Petition Date”). In the days leading up to the Petition Date, certain of the circumstances described in Part III below became known to a broader set of executives of the FTX Group beyond Mr. Bankman-Fried and members of his inner circle. Questions arose about Mr. Bankman-Fried’s leadership and the handling of the Debtors’ complex array of assets and businesses.

As the situation became increasingly dire, Sullivan & Cromwell and Alvarez & Marsal were engaged to provide restructuring advice and services to the Debtors.

On November 10, 2022, the Securities Commission of the Bahamas (the “SCB”) took action to freeze assets of non-Debtor FTX Digital Markets Ltd., a service provider to FTX Trading Ltd. and the employer of certain current and former executives and staff in the Bahamas. Mr. Brian Simms, K.C. was appointed as provisional liquidator of FTX Digital Markets Ltd. on a sealed record. The provisional liquidator for this Bahamas subsidiary has filed a chapter 15 petition seeking recognition of the provisional liquidation proceeding in the Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York.

In addition, in the first hours of November 11, 2022 EST, the directors of non-Debtors FTX Express Pty Ltd and FTX Australia Pty Ltd., both Australian entities, appointed Messrs. Scott Langdon, John Mouawad and Rahul Goyal of Korda Mentha Restructuring as voluntary administrators.

At the same time, negotiations were being held between certain senior individuals of the FTX Group and Mr. Bankman-Fried concerning the resignation of Mr. Bankman-Fried and the commencement of these Chapter 11 Cases. Mr. Bankman-Fried consulted with numerous lawyers, including lawyers at Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP, other legal counsel and his father, Professor Joseph Bankman of Stanford Law School. A document effecting a relinquishment of control was prepared and comments from Mr. Bankman-Fried’s team incorporated. At approximately 4:30 a.m. EST on Friday, November 11, 2022, after further consultation with his legal counsel, Mr. Bankman-Fried ultimately agreed to resign, resulting in my appointment as the Debtors’ CEO. I was delegated all corporate powers and authority under applicable law, including the power to appoint independent directors and commence these Chapter 11 Cases on an emergency basis.

Cash management... or lack thereof:

The FTX Group did not maintain centralized control of its cash. Cash management procedural failures included the absence of an accurate list of bank accounts and account signatories, as well as insufficient attention to the creditworthiness of banking partner around the world. Under my direction, the Debtors are establishing a centralized cash management system with proper controls and reporting mechanisms.

During these Chapter 11 Cases, cash that the Debtors are able to locate and transfer to the United States without adverse consequences, including substantially all proceeds of the global reorganization effort, will be deposited into financial institutions in the United States that are approved depository institutions in accordance with the U.S. Trustee Guidelines. Each Silo will have a centralized cash pool, and the Debtors will implement appropriate arrangements for allocating costs across the various Silos and Debtors. The Debtors expect to file promptly a Cash Management Motion that will describe the new cash management system in more detail.

Because of historical cash management failures, the Debtors do not yet know the exact amount of cash that the FTX Group held as of the Petition Date. The Debtors are working with Alvarez & Marsal to verify all cash positions. To date, it has been possible to approximate the following balances as of the Petition Date based on available books and records:



The Debtors have been in contact with banking institutions that they believe hold or may hold Debtor cash. These banking institutions have been instructed to freeze withdrawals and alerted not to accept instructions from Mr. Bankman-Fried or other signatories. Proper signature authority and reporting systems are expected to be arranged shortly.

Effective cash management also requires liquidity forecasting, which I understand was also generally absent from the FTX Group historically. The Debtors are putting in place the systems and processes necessary for Alvarez & Marsal to produce a reliable cash forecast as well as the cash reporting required for Monthly Operating Reports under the Bankruptcy Code.

And now it gets really good: read this section on the company's "Financial Reporting"

The FTX Group received audit opinions on consolidated financial statements for two of the Silos – the WRS Silo and the Dotcom Silo – for the period ended December 31, 2021. The audit firm for the WRS Silo, Armanino LLP, was a firm with which I am professionally familiar. The audit firm for the Dotcom Silo was Prager Metis, a firm with which I am not familiar and whose website indicates that they are the “first-ever CPA firm to officially open its Metaverse headquarters in the metaverse platform  Decentraland.

 have substantial concerns as to the information presented in these audited financial statements, especially with respect to the Dotcom Silo. As a practical matter, I do not believe it appropriate for stakeholders or the Court to rely on the audited financial statements as a reliable indication of the financial circumstances of these Silos.

The Debtors have not yet been able to locate any audited financial statements with respect to the Alameda Silo or the Ventures Silo.

Next, human resources: even more insanity here.

he FTX Group’s approach to human resources combined employees of various entities and outside contractors, with unclear records and lines of responsibility. At this time, the Debtors have been unable to prepare a complete list of who worked for the FTX Group as of the Petition Date, or the terms of their employment. Repeated attempts to locate certain presumed employees to confirm their status have been unsuccessful to date.

Nevertheless, there is a core team of dedicated employees at the FTX Group who have stayed focused on their jobs during this crisis and with whom I have established appropriate lines of authority and working relationships. The Debtors continue to review personnel issues but I expect, based on my experience and the nature of the Debtors’ business, that a large number of employees of the Debtors will need to continue to work for the Debtors for the foreseeable future in order to establish accountability, preserve value and maximize stakeholder recoveries after the departure of Mr. Bankman-Fried. As Chief Executive Officer, I am thankful for the extraordinary efforts of this group of employees, who despite difficult personal circumstances, have risen to the occasion and demonstrated their critical importance to the Debtors.

... and better: here are FTX's "Disbursement Controls"

The Debtors did not have the type of disbursement controls that I believe are appropriate for a business enterprise. For example, employees of the FTX Group submitted payment requests through an on-line ‘chat’ platform where a disparate group of  supervisors  approved disbursements by responding with personalized emojis.

Digital Asset Custody... and the "use of software to conceal the misuse of customer funds."

The FTX Group did not keep appropriate books and records, or security controls, with respect to its digital assets. Mr. Bankman-Fried and Mr. Wang controlled access to digital assets of the main businesses in the FTX Group (with the exception of LedgerX, regulated by the CFTC, and certain other regulated and/or licensed subsidiaries). Unacceptable management practices included the use of an unsecured group email account as the root user to access confidential private keys and critically sensitive data for the FTX Group companies around the world, the absence of daily reconciliation of positions on the blockchain, the use of software to conceal the misuse of customer funds, the secret exemption of Alameda from certain aspects of FTX.com’s auto-liquidation protocol, and the absence of independent governance as between Alameda (owned 90% by Mr. Bankman-Fried and 10% by Mr. Wang) and the Dotcom Silo (in which third parties had invested.

The Debtors have located and secured only a fraction of the digital assets of the FTX Group that they hope to recover in these Chapter 11 Cases. The Debtors have secured in new cold wallets approximately $740 million of cryptocurrency that the Debtors believe is attributable to either the WRS, Alameda and/or Dotcom Silos. The Debtors have not yet been able to determine how much of this cryptocurrency is allocable to each Silo, or even if such an allocation can be determined. These balances exclude cryptocurrency not currently under the Debtors’ control as a result of (a) at least $372 million of unauthorized transfers initiated on the Petition Date, during which time the Debtors immediately began moving cryptocurrency into cold storage to mitigate the risk to the remaining cryptocurrency that was accessible at the time, (b) the dilutive ‘minting’ of approximately $300 million in FTT tokens by an unauthorized source after the Petition Date and (c) the failure of the co-founders and potentially others to identify additional wallets believed to contain Debtor assets.

In response, the Debtors have engaged forensic analysts to identify potential Debtor assets on the blockchain, cybersecurity professionals to identify the parties responsible for the unauthorized transactions on and after the Petition Date and investigators to begin the process of identifying what may be very substantial transfers of Debtor property in the days, weeks and months prior to the Petition Date. The Debtors’ team includes business, accounting, forensic, technical and legal resources that I believe are among the best in the world at these activities. It is my expectation that the Debtors will require assistance from the Court with respect to these matters as the investigation and these Chapter 11 Cases continue.

Additionally, Ray notes that the fair value of the crypto assets held by the FTX International exchange was just $659,000 as of September 30. As a reminder, SBF made this sound to be as large as $5.5bn just a few days ago. While the filing does not include an estimate of crypto assets owed to customers, but says they are expected to be “significant”.



As the FT notes, amid Ray’s first statements on the collapse of FTX, a jurisdictional fight over the company’s legal proceedings has emerged. Earlier in the week, Bahamian officials filed a Chapter 15 bankruptcy in a New York federal court asking a judge there to respect a liquidation effort that had commenced in the island nation.

At issue is an FTX subsidiary known as “FTX Digital” not involved in the US Chapter 11 case in which the Bahamas says significant customer assets reside. Ray on Thursday wrote in a court filing that the Chapter 15 case should be consolidated in the Delaware bankruptcy court.

The punchline, however, was Ray's final paragraph, a tangent on corporate communications which hardly needs discussion:

Finally, and critically, the Debtors have made clear to employees and the public that Mr. Bankman-Fried is not employed by the Debtors and does not speak for them. Mr. Bankman-Fried, currently in the Bahamas, continues to make erratic and misleading public statements. Mr. Bankman-Fried, whose connections and financial holdings in the Bahamas remain unclear to me, recently stated to a reporter on Twitter: “F*** regulators they make everything worse” and suggested the next step for him was to “win a jurisdictional battle vs. Delaware”.



To summarize:

No record of any bank accounts
No record of any cash accounts
No record of any signatories
No record of any employees
No record of any payables or receivables
No record of any investments
No record of any decision-making
No record of any board meetings
No record of anything
And, as Bryce Weiner adds, there was also no record of any chats which were set to auto-delete, so there is no record of any internal communications.

Translation: if SBF avoids prison it is only because his tens of millions in (stolen) "donations" to Democrats have bought him a get out of jail for life card.


The full affidavit is below.



« Last Edit: November 18, 2022, 07:35:42 AM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: SBF says ESG is a fraud
« Reply #2318 on: November 18, 2022, 06:35:26 AM »

=======
Crypto dark knight Sam Bankman-Fried may have deceived investors, customers and various journalists and politicians. But now the FTX founder is at least telling the truth about a few things. Lo, he says that environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing is a fraud, and so was his progressive public posturing.

OPINION: FREE EXPRESSION
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What a Republican House Majority Will Look Like


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Mr. Bankman-Fried on Wednesday tweeted a rambling account attempting to explain how he managed to lose billions of dollars in FTX customer funds. “I was on the cover of every magazine, and FTX was the darling of Silicon Valley,” he noted. As a result, “we got overconfident and careless.” There’s an understatement for the digital ages.

Mr. Bankman-Fried virtue-signaled by committing to make FTX “carbon neutral” and donating generously to fashionable progressive causes such as a foundation working to provide solar energy in the Amazon River basin. “We’re giving millions each year to launch sustainability related initiatives,” he said in an April Forbes magazine interview with—you can’t make this up—Brazilian super-model Gisele Bündchen.

Meanwhile, he was leveraging FTX customer funds to make risky, ill-timed bets. “Problems were brewing. Larger than I realized,” he tweeted. “In the future, I’m going to care less about the dumb, contentless, ‘good actor’ framework,” he added. “What matters is what you do—is *actually* doing good or bad, not just *talking* about doing good or *using ESG language*.”

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Mr. Bankman-Fried is also acknowledging that he genuflected to regulators and Democratic lawmakers to win political protection. ESG ratings company Truvalue Labs even gave FTX a higher score on “leadership and governance” than Exxon Mobil, though the crypto exchange had only three directors on its board. The directors were Mr. Bankman-Fried, another FTX executive and an outside attorney. Truvalue Labs says FTX was given an overall “laggard” score.

“ESG has been perverted beyond recognition,” Mr. Bankman-Fried confessed in an interview this week with Vox in which he also acknowledged that his advocacy for strong crypto regulations was “just PR.”

He said he feels “bad for those who get” harmed by “this dumb game we woke westerners play where we say all the right shiboleths [sic] and so everyone likes us.” Ah, yes, the poor saps who invest in companies because they claim to be sustainable.

For the record, Mr. Bankman-Fried denies wrongdoing. “It was never the intention” to bilk customers, he said. Maybe not. But here is an object lesson for investors and the American public in how progressive virtue-signaling is used to conceal business vices. Some people will believe anything if you wrap a chance to get rich quick in political fashion.

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Crafty_Dog

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NRO on FTX
« Reply #2319 on: November 18, 2022, 07:36:30 AM »
third


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WITH JIM GERAGHTYNovember 18 2022



On the menu today: Over the course of November, you’ve probably noticed increasingly dramatic coverage of the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX. It turns out that the disheveled young so-called genius running one of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchanges and a major cryptocurrency hedge fund — a man once touted as the next Warren Buffett — was making it all up as he went along, like Bluto Blutarsky in Animal House. In other words, the cryptocurrency titan who was previously the Democrats’ second-biggest donor after George Soros now looks like a younger, nuttier Bernie Madoff.

Sam Bankman-Fried: Crook, Nut, or Both?

I haven’t written one of these explainers since the GameStop brouhaha. If I’m writing an “explainer,” there’s a good chance I needed the subject explained to me.

Let’s start at the very beginning, because as Maria Von Trapp reminded us, that’s a very good place to start. A cryptocurrency is a money-like asset that is designed to be used on computer systems and electronic banking, but that is not backed by anything like a government or a bank. Theoretically, anything could be used as currency. Back in grade school, you probably used Halloween candy as a lunchroom currency in early November — two small bags of M&Ms equaled one Snickers bar. Unlike the shell beads, coins, paper, and other objects used as currency throughout history, cryptocurrency is not tangible or physical; it only exists electronically. But if two people agree that the cryptocurrency has a particular value, they can use it to buy or sell goods or services. Or someone can buy a cryptocurrency and hold onto it like a stock or other asset, hoping it rises in value.

Right now, the most widely held cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin, Etherium, Tether, USD Coin — which, as the name would suggest, is pegged to the dollar — and BNB.

Back in 2017, Sam Bankman-Fried noticed that Bitcoin was bought and sold at significantly different prices in different countries’ markets — sometimes 60 percent more than the lowest priced markets. He bought Bitcoin in the markets where it was the cheapest, and then resold it in South Korean markets at a much higher price, what he nicknamed “the Kimchi Premium.” After a month, he launched his own trading house, Alameda Research.

Bankman-Fried founded FTX, which is short for “Futures Exchange,” in 2019. “In creating FTX, I wanted to build a platform for professional traders like me, while also bringing crypto trading to the mass market and first-time users,” he later said. He and his team had considerable experience with a lot of other big-name financial firms and tech companies such as Optiver, Susquehanna, Google, and Facebook. In other words, those who invested in and with the exchange believed that this team knew what they were doing.

As a cryptocurrency exchange, FTX allowed customers to trade cryptocurrencies for other assets, such as conventional — some would say, “real”– money or other cryptocurrencies. As with all currencies, the value of any given cryptocurrency is determined by what people — the market — collectively believe it is worth. If you have bought your morning coffee with U.S. dollars for your entire life, you likely feel confident that the coffee shop will accept payment in U.S. dollars tomorrow.

Every currency is maintained by a sufficiently widespread belief that the currency is currently worth something and will continue to be worth something in the foreseeable future. A currency’s value crashes when people no longer believe it is worth much, or worth anything at all.

FTX grew spectacularly fast. By March 2021, FTX had bought the rights to rename the home of the NBA’s Miami Heat as the “FTX Arena.” You may recall the Super Bowl commercial from this past February featuring Larry David, with the joke being that David didn’t understand cryptocurrency and thus was passing on investing in the next big thing — a pretty funny irony in light of recent events.

In August, Sam Bankman-Fried was on the cover of Fortune magazine, with a headline asking if he was the next Warren Buffett. He was touted like the other tech-industry boy-wonder geniuses, the next Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, or Mark Zuckerberg — a disheveled and casual wunderkind who had apparently discovered some key business secret or truth that had eluded the rest of us.

Sam Bankman-Fried does not look like the most powerful man in crypto. Friendly and rumpled, with an unruly halo of curly hair, the 30-year-old widely known as SBF has an affinity for League of Legends, fidget spinners, and other trappings of nerd culture. But underneath the goofy facade is a trading wunderkind whose ambition knows no limits.

An MIT physics grad, SBF honed his trading skills at renowned quant shop Jane Street Capital before launching a successful firm of his own, Alameda Research. In 2019 he founded crypto exchange FTX, hailed by some as the best derivatives platform ever built.

As recently as September, FTX was believed to be worth $32 billion. In addition to running the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, Bankman-Fried continued to run Alameda Research. This is like having the same person running the New York Stock Exchange and Bridgewater Associates, to pick a market and a hedge fund that are familiar to most people.

If you’re like me, you’ve felt like you didn’t really understand what the heck cryptocurrency was and didn’t bother investing in it. Well, our inability to understand these things really paid off in this case.

At the beginning of November, the website CoinDesk reported that “Bankman-Fried’s trading giant Alameda rests on a foundation largely made up of a coin that a sister company invented, not an independent asset like a fiat currency or another crypto. The situation adds to evidence that the ties between FTX and Alameda are unusually close.”

This may not be legal; reportedly, “the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission are examining whether FTX improperly used billions of dollars of customer funds to prop up a trading firm that he also founded, Alameda Research.” In other words, people gave money to the FTX exchange thinking they were investing in various cryptocurrencies, and it was instead being used to support the bottom line of the cryptocurrency hedge fund.

The CoinDesk report also led to lots of people in the financial and tech sectors wondering how much of FTX and Alameda’s financial assets were based on non-crypto, tangible financial assets. The fear was that the company’s financial assets were largely cryptocurrency, and thus capable of losing value quickly and with little warning.

About a week later, FTX entered negotiations with the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, seeking to be acquired by the larger exchange. The initial assessment from Binance was that FTX still had value, but it had a “liquidity crunch” — it couldn’t turn its cryptocurrency assets into real-world-currency assets fast enough. But about a day later, Binance suddenly changed its mind, backing out of the deal and ominously declaring that, “The issues are beyond our control or ability to help.”

That was a giant flashing neon sign that FTX had some sort of terrible problems lurking beneath the surface.

FTX has since filed for bankruptcy, and John Jay Ray III, who is running what’s left of the company, declared in the bankruptcy filing that basically no one at FTX left any records of what they were doing, and may well have never understood what they were doing when they were actually doing it. Ray wrote:

I have over 40 years of legal and restructuring experience. I have been the Chief Restructuring Officer or Chief Executive Officer in several of the largest corporate failures in history. I have supervised situations involving allegations of criminal activity and malfeasance (Enron). I have supervised situations involving novel financial structures (Enron and Residential Capital) and cross-border asset recovery and maximization (Nortel and Overseas Shipholding). Nearly every situation in which I have been involved has been characterized by defects of some sort in internal controls, regulatory compliance, human resources and systems integrity.

Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here. From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented.

Remember, this is the guy who cleaned up Enron!

Bankruptcy filings are not often entertaining reading, but this one stands out because it basically makes FTX look less organized, professional, and disciplined than the fraternity in Animal House. Where the institution doesn’t look chaotic, it looks like a giant scam:

“Many of the companies in the FTX Group, especially those organized in Antigua and the Bahamas, did not have appropriate corporate governance. I understand that many entities, for example, never had board meetings.”
“The FTX Group did not maintain centralized control of its cash. Cash management procedural failures included the absence of an accurate list of bank accounts and account signatories, as well as insufficient attention to the creditworthiness of banking partners.”
“The FTX Group’s approach to human resources combined employees of various entities and outside contractors, with unclear records and lines of responsibility. At this time, the Debtors have been unable to prepare a complete list of who worked for the FTX Group as of the Petition Date, or the terms of their employment. Repeated attempts to locate certain presumed employees to confirm their status have been unsuccessful to date.”
“Employees of the FTX Group submitted payment requests through an on-line ‘chat’ platform where a disparate group of supervisors approved disbursements by responding with personalized emojis.”
“Corporate funds of the FTX Group were used to purchase homes and other personal items for employees and advisors. I understand that there does not appear to be documentation for certain of these transactions as loans, and that certain real estate was recorded in the personal name of these employees and advisors on the records of the Bahamas.”
“The FTX Group did not keep appropriate books and records, or security controls, with respect to its digital assets.”
“One of the most pervasive failures of the FTX.com business in particular is the absence of lasting records of decision-making. Mr. Bankman-Fried often communicated by using applications that were set to auto-delete after a short period of time, and encouraged employees to do the same.”
That last one makes you wonder if Bankman-Fried didn’t want to leave any paper trail of what he was doing with other people’s money. The much-celebrated wunderkind now looks like either a crook, or a nut, or both:

“Mr. Bankman-Fried, currently in the Bahamas, continues to make erratic and misleading public statements. Mr. Bankman-Fried, whose connections and financial holdings in the Bahamas remain unclear to me, recently stated to a reporter on Twitter: “F*** regulators they make everything worse” and suggested the next step for him was to “win a jurisdictional battle vs. Delaware”

Many on the right are wondering if Bankman-Fried got away with it for so long because he was exceptionally generous to the Democratic Party, and lots of people on the left wanted to believe the image he offered.

In August, Politico described Bankman-Fried as “one of the biggest donors in Democratic politics. . . . [He’s] one of just a handful of donors who spent $10 million-plus backing President Joe Biden in 2020, and in the last year, he’s hired a network of political operatives and spent tens of millions more shaping Democratic House primaries. It was a shocking wave of spending that looked like it could remake the Democratic Party bench in Washington, candidate by candidate. Looking ahead to the 2024 election, he has said he could spend anywhere from $100 million to $1 billion.”

When you have $1 billion, you can buy a lot of friends who don’t want to look too closely at how you made your fortune. NBC News reported:

In just two years since Bankman-Fried’s first political donation, his money hired dozens of top-flight lobbyists and political operatives, made major investments in newsrooms like ProPublica and Semafor, and made him the second-biggest Democratic donor of the 2022 midterms, behind only the 92-year-old financier George Soros. He said $1 billion would be a “soft ceiling” for his spending in 2024.

Apparently, there’s no proof to the rumor that the Ukrainian government invested heavily in FTX, with some folks on social media spinning a conspiracy theory that the Ukrainians gave to FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried gave money to Democrats, and Democrats and the Biden administration sent U.S. aid to Ukraine. FTX was a partner in helping the Ukrainian government convert donated cryptocurrencies to fiat money.

But the story is bad enough as is, without crazy rumors of elaborate global money-laundering. It is believed that more than a million people have lost the money they invested in FTX, an estimated $8 billion or so.

ADDENDUM: Thanks to everyone who has donated during our current webathon, and in particular, thank you to the anonymous reader who donated $2,500 and wrote, “Jim Geraghty alone is worth the price of admission.” We are very close to our goal for this webathon, and your generosity is part of what keeps NR going. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

ccp

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1 of 9 House Committee members who received FTX money
« Reply #2320 on: November 18, 2022, 02:01:16 PM »
is returning the $2,900

no word from mad max
except republicans took cash too

isn't her house in Baltimore ~ 3,000,000 ?

https://www.conservativereview.com/sam-bankman-fried-and-ftx-cronies-gave-300k-to-house-committee-members-investigating-him-2658714091.html

Crafty_Dog

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99 seconds
« Reply #2321 on: November 18, 2022, 02:29:01 PM »

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2322 on: November 19, 2022, 06:28:37 AM »
One red year, 3 green years is the pattern, so far. This suggests 2025 should be time for some profits, for those with short time horizons.

« Last Edit: November 19, 2022, 06:30:42 AM by ya »

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2323 on: November 20, 2022, 06:01:13 AM »
So people thought they purchased about 70,000 BTC thro FTX, who immediately used the $ to buy shitcoins. Now that FTX is bankrupt, alas not a single BTC was in their inventory. So the people only purchased IOU's for BTC. The moral of the story is that self custody of your coins is important. Going into 2023, self custody of coins will be important. This is shown below, where the number of BTC at exchanges is going down, as people self custody. These kind of games (purchase of paper BTC), has kept the price down, but people have the option to self custody. Same happens with gold, but self custody is harder with gold, especially in size.


ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2324 on: November 20, 2022, 04:41:13 PM »
BTC looking weak, chatter about the owner of GBTC, DCG (parent company) and Genesis being in trouble due to FTX. GBTC is very likely backed by BTC and is safe, but the market awaits news. Did not help that Coinbase which stores GBTC's coins did not provide proof, but only assurances.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2022, 04:52:16 PM by ya »

DougMacG

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The Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy: Our economy is in incompetent hands
« Reply #2325 on: November 21, 2022, 07:26:34 AM »
https://nypost.com/2022/11/20/the-us-economy-is-at-the-mercy-of-jerome-powell-and-janet-yellen/

Powell thinks the only way to curb inflation is to crash the economy and the others don't even want to curb inflation.  God help us.

ccp

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2326 on: November 21, 2022, 07:54:29 AM »
"The US economy is at the mercy of Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen"

what terrible leadership

in an ideal world elections of political grandstanding should not have anything to do with the Fed
or Treasury
decisions ....


ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2327 on: November 22, 2022, 04:11:32 AM »
In the meantime, plebs with > 1 BTC keeps rising.


ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2328 on: November 22, 2022, 06:02:35 PM »
Pl. do your self a favor and listen to this, starting at 44 min. Talks about why BTC is mispriced.

https://youtu.be/ONSk7DMsxNk

Crafty_Dog

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ET: Regulatory Crackdown Issues
« Reply #2329 on: November 23, 2022, 04:52:12 AM »
Regulatory Crackdown in Wake of FTX Scandal Would Erode Liberties Without Addressing Demand for New Currencies: Experts
By Michael Washburn November 22, 2022 Updated: November 22, 2022biggersmaller Print



The collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, and the worldwide outcry over the billions of dollars wiped off the platform, are likely to trigger a massive regulatory reaction that would further erode citizens’ economic freedoms without addressing the issues that fostered demand for an alternative to the fiat dollar, economists have told The Epoch Times.

An international scandal has embroiled FTX and its founder, 30-year-old Sam Bankman-Fried, in the wake of the firm’s crash earlier this month precipitated by a run on the exchange. Since then, reports have emerged that Alameda Research, a crypto hedge fund established by Bankman-Fried, was trading billions of dollars from FTX accounts without clients’ knowledge.

FTX has filed for bankruptcy protection, Bankman-Fried has stepped down from his role as CEO, and John J. Ray III, the former CEO of Enron, has taken over the insolvent company with a plan to sell it off if a successful restructuring is impossible. An estimated 1 million customers and other investors are facing total losses of billions of dollars.

FTX, in a recent court filing, said it owes $3.1 billion to its top 50 creditors, and its collapse has rocked the $839 billion global crypto market. On Nov. 22, the trading value of bitcoin tumbled to $15,480, a two-year low, before edging up slightly to $15,909.

Ray has claimed that subsidiaries of FTX in the United States and abroad “have solvent balance sheets, responsible management and valuable franchises,” but so far the shock and alarm over the exchange’s implosion have shown no sign of abating.

Meanwhile, a number of big names in sports and entertainment, such as comedian Larry David, NBA star Stephen Curry, and quarterback Tom Brady, have become the subject of a probe by the Texas State Securities Board over their public endorsements of FTX. The celebrities have also become the targets of class action lawsuits filed by disgruntled investors, with more expected in the days to come.

Madoff’s Heirs
Observers of the FTX blowup are extremely candid about the severity of the exchange’s mismanagement and the recent historical analogs for its unraveling.

Wayne Davis, a partner at the law firm Tannenbaum Halpern Syracuse & Hirschtritt in New York, drew a parallel with one of the most notorious cases of fraud in the history of finance, that of the Bernard L. Madoff, whose Ponzi scheme bilked some 4,800 clients of $64.8 billion. In both cases, clients were insufficiently attentive to the lack of internal controls, he suggested.

“Madoff comes to mind. Perhaps not the same criminal intent components, but there are certainly similarities as far as investor/customer enthusiasm notwithstanding signs of lax compliance and risk management engagement,” Tannenbaum told The Epoch Times.

Other observers see parallels in earlier events in the development of banking and currencies. Charles Steele, chair of the department of economics, business, and accounting at Hillsdale College in Michigan, said that the blow-up of FTX reminds him of the first stock market bubble and financial crisis to afflict the world, namely the collapse of France’s Banque Royale in 1720.

“Scotsman John Law set up a central bank for the French monarchy that began paying enormous returns on its shares and its sister Mississippi Company. It was heralded as a great triumph of new financial technology, a nearly miraculous breakthrough, but in fact, it was effectively what we now call a Ponzi scheme,” Steele told The Epoch Times.

“In the case of FTX, it appears that Samuel Bankman-Fried was heralded as a crypto genius, but was simply engaged in a lot of shady business disguised as ‘philanthropy,’ using other people’s money. He was apparently the second-largest donor to the Democrat Party campaigns in the 2022 elections, and also was positioning himself to be a major player in the design of federal regulations for cryptocurrency,” Steele added.

The Likely Reaction
The magnitude of the FTX scandal—the amounts of money involved and the number of people suffering possibly permanent financial harm—means that its ramifications are likely to continue to affect all players in the crypto space in coming weeks and months, said Jeffrey Guernsey, a professor of economics at Cedarville University in Ohio. The very lack of a fixed value that made crypto investing exciting for some people may also be among its singular vulnerabilities in the face of emboldened regulators, he suggested.

“While this thought does not originate with me, it is clear that crypto is not a currency, if one attribute of a currency is a stable value. The collapse of FTX certainly puts the entire asset class under review and question and may lead to calls for governmental regulation,” Guernsey said.

Given the priorities of the Biden administration, the notably harsher tone of federal guidance and rulemaking since he took office, and officials’ well-documented hostility to financial innovation and decentralization, the reaction from regulators is likely to be extremely draconian and may even cross lines that the regulators have hitherto respected, observers say. But whether the coming crackdown will address concerns of fiat currency that helped feed demand for alternative exchanges, platforms, and markets is a different question.

“I expect that this debacle will lead to greatly increased federal regulation of cryptocurrencies,” Steele said.

In Steele’s view, the fiasco is likely to speed up the crafting and implementation of central bank digital currencies (CBDC). Steele noted that the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston is collaborating with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology on a joint study, Project Hamilton, whose objective is to devise a CBDC for the United States.

While ignored by many people, this is one of the most potentially concerning recent developments given the unprecedented powers that it stands to place in the hands of a central regulatory authority, he said. While some might initially welcome a CBDC, it could have unforeseen consequences and ultimately could help extend the role of government into people’s lives in ways to which they are so far unaccustomed.

“I think a CBDC is very dangerous, because it would enable a central bank or government to monitor, control, and record every exchange made with the currency. If, for example, a government decided it did not want citizens buying, say, firearms, or perhaps donating funds to a political candidate, the central bank could prevent the transaction. Alternatively, it could have a permanent record of a citizen’s purchases and use these to establish a social credit score for the person,” Steele said.

“In this way, a CBDC could become the ultimate tool of social engineering and tyranny. A true cryptocurrency keeps transactions anonymous, which is one of its great benefits. Governments tend to dislike tools that give citizens such privacy,” he added.

Legitimate Demand
The tragedy of the FTX scandal and the possible meltdown of other crypto entrepreneurs as more and more people panic and seek to redeem their assets is that such platforms arose partly in response to an understandable demand for alternatives to the fiat dollar, or a dollar whose value and use flow from government dictates and are unrelated to any external commodity or asset such as gold. The heavy-handed reaction expected in the coming months as a consequence of FTX’s blow-up is unlikely to take account of this truth.

That’s the view of Brian Domitrovic, a professor of economic history at Sam Houston State University, who sees negative long-term consequences to the country’s abandonment of the gold standard in 1971.

“I don’t think there’s any kind of broad popular support for a fiat dollar, a non-gold dollar. There hasn’t been since 1971. A lot of popular dissatisfaction with this has been very clearly expressed,” Domitrovic told The Epoch Times.

“The Federal Reserve is not a popular institution at all. I think there’s just a general sense on the part of the public that we should have something more like the classical monetary system that we used to have. And I think crypto has tapped into that more effectively than anything since the end of the gold standard,” he added.

The New Non-Fiat
From a certain standpoint, cryptocurrencies took over where gold left off following the shift away from the gold standard, Domitrovic said. Like gold, it is limited in supply and requires mining, though of course not the same kind of mining. In the case of the former commodity, the mining is a process of physical extraction of a substance from the earth, and in the latter, it is mathematical and theoretical in nature.

Despite the differences, both currencies have the effect of eroding centralized power and oversight by making institutions such as the Federal Reserve less integral to the functioning of the economy, Domitrovic said.

“Bitcoin aspires to mimic gold in many respects. This is what you had when money was not a creation of the Federal Reserve,” he added.

Much of today’s demand for bitcoin and kindred currencies flow from a widespread desire to go back to how things were before 1971, Domitrovic argued.

“Before 1971, the United States led the world in becoming the greatest economy ever, with hundreds of millions of people living at high levels of prosperity. There is a very strong reason why people associate the pre-1971 period with a magnificent achievement economically,” he added.

In this analysis, the federal government has sought to maintain centralized oversight over the economy and the level of prosperity attainable by citizens partly by not allowing crypto to compete with the fiat dollar.

“Even if there is fraud, I’m still going to lay a lot of the blame at the feet of the government and the official definition of policy, because they’re not taking crypto as seriously as they should. They consider it non-money,” he said.


Domitrovic sees stiff resistance on the part of Washington’s policy elites toward going back to the state of affairs that prevailed up until 1934, when it was common for private banks to issue currencies not subject to taxation.

“A majority of U.S. dollars from 1862 to 1934 were produced privately. Look at currency from the 1920s, there’s the name of a bank on it. It wasn’t taxed, and you didn’t have to calculate where you acquired it and where you sold it. That’s the way things worked going back to 1792 when the U.S. dollar was established,” Domitrovic said.

By taxing crypto transactions and refusing to acknowledge the legitimacy of bitcoin, the government has helped foster a shadow industry where reckless players and fraudsters like Bankman-Fried proliferate, Domitrovic believes.

“I can see scenarios where the government wants to see if bitcoin will embarrass itself out of existence. But they’re not addressing the fundamental issue, that there’s mass dissatisfaction with the non-gold fiat collar. Good policy would take that seriously,” said Domitrovic.

The Epoch Times has reached out to FTX for comment.

DougMacG

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2330 on: November 23, 2022, 05:37:57 AM »
Pl. do your self a favor and listen to this, starting at 44 min. Talks about why BTC is mispriced.

https://youtu.be/ONSk7DMsxNk

A chart from the video:
https://images.app.goo.gl/TJnWzoj6AaJWPG6s6
https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/images/full-reports/2020/56516-fig4_deficit-interest-vs.png


Scroll right if necessary to 2050.
Y axis is deficit as a percent of US GDP.
You can see what financial crises do at 2008 and 2020.  This is a best case scenario on the course we are on.  Deficit is projected to 15% of GDP.  Each deficit spirals into new debt requiring more interest expense even at zero principle payment.

Even in Keynesian deficit theory, you should have zero deficit at full employment.  That ship has sailed.

Point in the video is that the current interest don't account for the credit risk of the USA.

I am sorry to say, 2050 is not that far out, 27 years is like looking back to 1995.

I have been harping and no policy makers or voters have been listening, we need economic growth, WAY MORE OF IT, to survive.  Our debt is growing, and compounding, like it or not.  Debt as a percentage of GDP CANNOT grow like this or default is coming and coming soon.

Scott Grannis said, debt service, our interest costs are still within historical norms, but that was with interest rates at near zero, negative real rates, artificially low rates.  In the longer run, they won't be.

This is a CBO chart.  The chart is, again, the optimistic, best case scenario for the course we are on, and it is ugly, leads to disaster.  These guys are talking about how to hedge against it (bitcoin), but we need, as a country, to change course to survive.  Spend less as a percent of GDP and put our private sector growth rate on steroids.  Do both or cease to exist.

Besides the debt number, whether you look at the 31 trillion or the 25 trillion, we have 170 trillion in unfunded liabilities.  200 trillion not paid for in a 25 trillion economy.  We don't need to ask, what could go wrong.



« Last Edit: November 23, 2022, 06:17:56 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2331 on: November 23, 2022, 05:46:14 AM »
"Pl. do yourself a favor and listen to this, starting at 44 min. Talks about why BTC is mispriced. https://youtu.be/ONSk7DMsxNk"

Listening now.  Interesting!

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2332 on: November 24, 2022, 03:33:06 AM »



ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2333 on: November 24, 2022, 04:18:47 AM »
Re: the above video..Some things that I think a lot about
- CBO projections are always optimistic
- Does anyone think that the US debt will ever be paid back. The answer is no!. If so, there are only two paths forward, default (which we can avoid since we own the reserve currency), or print more and try to pay the debt back in devalued dollars.
- Last week, Jason Lowery an MIT defense fellow, who has a Masters thesis on why the US has no option but to buy BTC and is making waves in the BTC world, due to some unique insights https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jason-lowery-bitcoin-is-critical-for-national-security/id1569130932?i=1000545933384 announced that the Biden WH asked him to help explain the need for BTC. He is also advising the Office of the Defense Secretary.
- Yesterday, a Harvard thesis, for the first time made a case that Central Banks must buy BTC as a reserve currency, atleast in small amounts. https://sites.google.com/view/matthewferranti/research?pli=1. Once any Central Bank announces that they hold BTC, its game over, all CB's will need to hold BTC in a mad FOMO.
- Saudis & Russians are busy sabotaging the US petro-dollar system. Its a matter of time, before oil is priced in BTC. Govts all over the world are realizing that the US issues green paper, in exchange of real goods (oil, commodities, even I-phones), whereas from their perspective, all the power should be with the countries who own the commodities and not the ones with the right to print green paper.
- No one knows how many $, Yen, Euro have been printed so far and how many more will need to be printed over the next decade. What we do know is there will only ever be 21 million BTC, of which over 90 % have been mined so far, and the rest 10 % will be mined over the next 100 years. The world population is 8 billion, it means as long as people keep buying BTC, the price must go up. So far, even now, the number of new bitcoiners continues to grow. Since growth can be exponential, in 3-4 years, a billion users are expected. There are some estimates that the world has 50 million millionaires, in other words, not enough BTC for even 1 BTC/millionaire!.
- In western economies, we do not appreciate BTC as much as say in countries where there is massive inflation, capital controls, or where they live under authoritarian regimes. Much of the developing countries and Africa fits this scenario, it is here that growth is massive.
- Elon Musk, Michael Saylor, Druckenmiller, Bill Miller, Paul Tudor Jones,  all own BTC in their personal accts. These are some of the smartest investors and all are billionaires.
- More and more politicians (Cynthia Lummis, Ted Cruz, Davidson and many others) are becoming vocal supporters and US States (Wyoming, Texas) are investing/attracting hundreds of millions in BTC mining companies. Even BTC technology companies, there is literally hundreds of millions being invested in the US and elsewhere.
- BTC is already a green technology (inspite of all the FUD), with a bright future for reducing carbon emissions (captures methane flaring). Sort of like having your cake and eating it too.
- We have not discussed the Lightning network much, thats the payment network based on the BTC blockchain, which allows final settlement of transactions world wide at near zero cost, instantly. In contrast, Visa/Amex etc charge 3 % for using the card and the final settlement actually takes 3-5 days (people think it is instantaneous, but it is not). This is a game changer, expect social media platforms to implement this very soon.


There is so much going on, in the BTC space. There is also a lot of FUD/scams, but all that comes from holding "crypto", not BTC. Of course, I and many others who support BTC could be wrong, BTC is the most asymmetric bet on offer, with a very high chance of success. There is literally billions invested in it. Its like the internet, there is no going back. All we need is time for it to work out (which many of us dont have!).
« Last Edit: November 24, 2022, 05:05:08 AM by ya »

ccp

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The "bond guy" sees dark clouds ahead
« Reply #2334 on: November 24, 2022, 05:57:41 AM »
He predicts the recovery will not be typical
and it will be hard to predict the sequence of events but volatility will be high and many cascading events are likely:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/top-economist-mohamed-el-erian-193236736.html

funny how same people that got us into this mess
are still in charge to manage it.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2335 on: November 24, 2022, 08:21:56 AM »
Read that.  I thought the analysis pretty good.

DougMacG

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2336 on: November 24, 2022, 11:45:49 AM »
Read that.  I thought the analysis pretty good.

I also respect the analysis of economist Mohamed El-Erian.  Among his other hats, he is chief economist for Allianz, the Munich based, largest insurance company in the world.  I find him to be a neutral, well informed observer, not noticeably partisan left or right.

From the article:
"The first transformational trend, El-Erian says, is the shift from insufficient demand to insufficient supply. The second is the end of boundless liquidity from central banks. And the third is the growing fragility of financial markets."
...
"looking forward he sees even more uncertainty as economic shocks “grow more frequent and more violent.”
...
"a “cascading effect”—in that one bad event could likely lead to another."

   - (Doug) These warnings may turn into understatements.
------

Roubini:
“If you raise interest rates, you can also have a crash of equity markets, bond markets, credit markets, and asset prices in general that causes further financial and economic damage,”

   - (Doug) Not the rosy outlook we might wish to hear.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2337 on: November 24, 2022, 12:00:20 PM »
I like that though he is known as a bond guy, he gets the role of supply in all this.

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2338 on: November 25, 2022, 05:03:08 PM »
Texas report on Block Chain
From the Texas Work Group on Blockchain Matters, this is the report and proposed master plan to expand the blockchain industry in Texas in compliance with House Bill 1576, passed by the 87th Texas Legislature.

This report examines the current blockchain industry in Texas, reviews the state’s current academic, educational, and workforce needs required to grow the industry, and identifies areas for economic growth and development opportunities presented by blockchain technology. The report contains legislative and policy recommendations aimed at encouraging the industry’s expansion and establishing regulatory and legal clarity to establish Texas as a leader in the blockchain technology and cryptocurrency space.

https://portal.bcwg.texas.gov/General-Documents/Texas-Work-Group-on-Blockchain-Matters-Report/wbtp-2m5k

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2339 on: November 26, 2022, 08:31:33 AM »
Note the steepness of the adoption curves, in 5-10 years things will be very different. Its a waiting game. Compare with the internet/cell phone, from 1995-2010 a 15 year period, now do the same for BTC from 2015 onwards...That should give the growth trajectory.

« Last Edit: November 26, 2022, 08:36:27 AM by ya »

ya

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« Last Edit: November 27, 2022, 09:17:54 AM by Crafty_Dog »

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WSJ: Final Price
« Reply #2343 on: November 29, 2022, 06:29:51 AM »
Saw this in today's WSJ

Crypto’s Final Price Could Be Zero
No sane lender would extend credit against assets lacking any underlying collateral.
Andy Kessler hedcutBy Andy KesslerFollow
Nov. 27, 2022 12:32 pm ET



There aren’t many leveraged buyouts of technology companies, and for good reason. Technology and debt, like Red Bull and milk, don’t mix. Why? Because when technology works, it commands high valuations. You can’t LBO Google. But when technology moves on to the next new thing, there isn’t much residual value in the form of assets and collateral to call on in case of debt defaults. FTX, Elon Musk and SoftBank are learning this lesson.

Twitter, which last turned a profit in 2019, now has $1 billion a year in debt payments. Wall Street can’t off-load Twitter’s buyout debt, now maybe 60 cents on the dollar, without losing money. Mr. Musk even told employees “bankruptcy isn’t out of the question.” Of course, he has benefited from selling his own highly valued (though declining) Tesla shares, recently another $4 billion for a total of more than $19 billion. As Chief Twit, Mr. Musk proclaims Twitter will operate under free-speech principles. Advertisers are fleeing. So are employees. If he defaults and walks away, the only thing left is some aging code and a few plastic blue birds to sell at auction.

The new poster child for the toxic cocktail of technology and debt is Sam Bankman-Fried, with his imploded FTX and Alameda empires. Sure, these companies misappropriated, to put it nicely, customers’ assets. And yes, withdrawals that acted like a bank run drove the company into Chapter 11. But the company’s original sin was to borrow against its own FTT token, which was held up by nothing but air.


This was crypto’s mass delusion. FTT was so thinly traded that FTX could set any price, but not forever. FTX and Alameda borrowed against tokens they themselves were manipulating, including Solana and others, which some called Sam Coins, now Scam Coins. The fatal conceit: They thought FTT would stay high forever, so they invested in often illiquid positions. FTX was even paying employees, vendors and whoever else would take it in FTT tokens, whose total market cap used to be almost $10 billion and is now about $400 million.


You can’t manipulate something forever. Reality eventually replaces delusion. All it took was someone to touch a pin to the bubble. After Coindesk leaked a copy of Alameda’s balance sheet loaded with FTT tokens, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao started selling. FTT went from $22 to under $3 in 48 hours. So much for collateral. When the smoke clears, FTX/Alameda may have $8 billion to $15 billion in debt outstanding, with little to sell for repayment. It will take years to sort out who gets what.

Meanwhile, others also barreled in. A cottage industry of firms emerged to lever up crypto. This is when things turned toxic. The first task was to lure customers by paying interest on their crypto holdings. The Anchor Protocol behind the spectacularly imploded Terra-Luna algorithmic tokens was paying up to 20%.

Other platforms such as Binance and Crypto.com would pay 4%, 8% or more on crypto as well, suckering in the masses who could earn only 0.01% interest from, well, real banks. But how could anyone pay interest on crypto? By turning around and lending it out to hedge funds and others who also used leverage. Insanity.


Genesis Global Capital created a lending platform to facilitate borrowing crypto. Lending against what? Again, just air. Firms such as Gemini, set up by the Winklevoss twins, were paying 8% interest, so customers could harvest yields. Why was there any yield on crypto? Good question. It worked on the way up, not so much on the way down. Crypto was lent out like a hot potato until someone got stuck with the value down 90% and everyone else left with defaulted debt. This was probably the only way the delusion could have ended.

Most of these platforms are now frozen and might disappear as customers caught with a hot potato frantically demand withdrawals in the wake of the FTX collapse. Of course, all these crypto lenders had to do was ask: What’s the underlying collateral? Where are the assets? With no good answer, no sane lender would have lent against it. But no one asked.

Another debt example: Remember in 2020 when a SoftBank fund was revealed as the “Nasdaq Whale” using derivatives and leverage to buy technology shares and eventually losing big? Well, besides SoftBank’s zero on its $100 million investment in FTX, here’s a strange twist: Its CEO, Masayoshi Son, may owe his company nearly $5 billion. According to the Financial Times, “Son has pledged both his stake in the funds and a portion of his SoftBank stake as collateral for the amount he owes the company.” The funds have sunk, and SoftBank stock value has declined 50% since early 2021.

Technology, like Red Bull, is a supercharger until it wears off. Debt, like milk, can kill you when it spoils. They don’t mix.

Write to kessler@wsj.com.

DougMacG

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Re: WSJ: Final Price , crypto = zero?
« Reply #2344 on: November 29, 2022, 07:50:56 AM »
They may be wrong if the US$ goes to zero first.
---------
The article reminds me of a magazine ad from the 1980s.  Two facing pages in a fancy financial investment magazine like Fortune.  On one side was a picture of a computer chip with a description:  This is a chip.  It's the lightest, smallest, fastest, most powerful chip ever invented on the planet.  In two years it will be obsolete.  On the facing page is a picture of a brick with a description:  This is a brick. In 50 years it will still be a brick. We are Hanson.  (Largest brick maker in North America.)
--------
I've worked in tech, made and lost a lot in fiber optics and datacommunications, but bricks and mortar will pay my retirement.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2022, 08:00:16 AM by DougMacG »


ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2346 on: November 30, 2022, 04:54:04 AM »
In the meantime..
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/legal/brazil-approves-use-of-bitcoin-as-payment

The ECB still does not understand BTC, or the difference between BTC and Crypto. Article should have been labelled the Euro's Last Gasp!.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2022/html/ecb.blog221130~5301eecd19.en.html

Here's the author's bio
« Last Edit: November 30, 2022, 05:13:20 AM by ya »

ccp

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2347 on: November 30, 2022, 06:55:37 AM »
I don't understand yield curve much

but I remember it being posted that Scott Grannis
would tell people to watch for inversion:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-deeply-negative-treasury-curve-in-more-than-four-decades-has-one-upbeat-takeaway-for-investors-11669750894

DougMacG

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2348 on: November 30, 2022, 07:41:19 AM »
I don't understand yield curve much

but I remember it being posted that Scott Grannis
would tell people to watch for inversion:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-deeply-negative-treasury-curve-in-more-than-four-decades-has-one-upbeat-takeaway-for-investors-11669750894

It's a bad sign , yes.  Not a perfect indicator but a sign of potential impending trouble coming.

From the article:. "In theory, lower economic growth equates to lower inflation, which helps the Fed do its job of controlling prices."

  - Intellectual laziness or dishonesty, I just hate that kind of 1960s, 1970s thinking.   Proven over and over in both directions, we can have great growth with low inflation and we can have bad growth with high inflation.  It's the policies.  cf. Carter, Reagan, Biden


ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2349 on: November 30, 2022, 06:47:02 PM »
I don't understand yield curve much

but I remember it being posted that Scott Grannis
would tell people to watch for inversion:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-deeply-negative-treasury-curve-in-more-than-four-decades-has-one-upbeat-takeaway-for-investors-11669750894

Every recession is preceded by an inverted yield curve, but not every inverted yield curve leads to a recession.