Author Topic: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold  (Read 512922 times)

Crafty_Dog

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Thank you.

Crafty_Dog

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Tucker hypothesized tonight that the surge in BTC was due to paying off hacker blackmailers who shut down our airspace a few days ago (and hit Canada the very next day)

We live in interesting times , , ,

ya

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FWIW, Marty Armstrong "February is a PANIC CYCLE in many markets. The cracks are appearing. Pay attention. Watch the Arrays & the Reversals. As I have warned, 2023 was going to be a difficult year. This banking crisis is NOT confined to the United States. We are looking at a global contagion."

He has also been warning of huge disruption in the April/May time frame, both the Feb panic cycle and the summer disruption is being seen in multiple markets, currencies etc.

If there is an expansion of war in Europe, he expects US markets to go up, as money moves to the US for safety.

On Japan "Needless to say, because interest rates were kept artificially low for 15 years, this has undermined the global sovereign bond markets as our politicians never considered. So 2023 may be the emerging market debt crisis. Japan also has the risk of geopolitical events involving both China and North Korea. The major capital is starting to move out of Japan as the future is becoming very uncertain."

« Last Edit: January 19, 2023, 04:45:14 AM by ya »

Crafty_Dog

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I think I caught in the background a snippet on FOX Business wherein some hedge fund guy said Japan is starting to raise its interest rates.  (He felt this would be good for Japanese bank stocks)


ya

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And Genesis files for bankruptcy. The amazing thing is BTC has made up the FTC crash, Celsius, 3AC, Genesis etc.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/20/crypto-lender-genesis-trading-files-for-bankruptcy-barry-silbert-digital-currency-group.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar


ya

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Speakers on...for the BTC hodlers

https://twitter.com/i/status/1616737287190237184

ya

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ya

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ya

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So far so good.


Crafty_Dog

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Crypto capital gains and end of thoughts of anonymity?
« Reply #2411 on: January 25, 2023, 07:20:12 PM »
https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/irs-alerts-taxpayers-they-must-answer-a-new-question-on-tax-forms-or-face-consequences_5006776.html?utm_source=Goodevening&src_src=Goodevening&utm_campaign=gv-2023-01-25&src_cmp=gv-2023-01-25&utm_medium=email&est=tsGXb0qmI%2B93f1Y%2Ffmr4Rus9sX5Q0YnFXrwvQu20ONGuw775%2F57fS5%2B2ft9NPVLq0%2F1B


The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) issued an alert to taxpayers on Tuesday, reminding them that they must report all digital asset-related income and answer a new digital asset question on their 2022 federal income tax return or face consequences such as delayed refunds or even penalties.

The IRS said in a Jan. 24 release that a key change on 1040 forms this year is that the agency has replaced the term “virtual currency” with “digital assets,” in addition to some other modifications to the wording.

The “Yes” or “No” question, which was expanded and revised this year to update terminology, reads as follows:

“At any time during 2022, did you: (a) receive (as a reward, award or payment for property or services); or (b) sell, exchange, gift or otherwise dispose of a digital asset (or a financial interest in a digital asset)?”

The question appears at the top of tax forms 1040, Individual Income Tax Return; 1040-SR, U.S. Tax Return for Seniors; and 1040-NR, U.S. Nonresident Alien Income Tax Return.

“All taxpayers must answer the question regardless of whether they engaged in any transactions involving digital assets,” the agency cautioned.

It is a legal requirement to accurately report all income, including income from digital assets, on federal income tax returns. Failure to do so could result in non-compliance with tax laws and possible penalties.

The IRS has provided a detailed explanation of what constitutes a digital asset, which includes such things as stablecoins, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and cryptocurrencies.

Taxpayers need to check the “Yes” box if they:

Received digital assets as payment for property or services provided;
Transferred digital assets for free (without receiving any consideration) as a bona fide gift;
Received digital assets resulting from a reward or award;
Received new digital assets resulting from mining, staking, and similar activities;
Received digital assets resulting from a hard fork (a branching of a cryptocurrency’s blockchain that splits a single cryptocurrency into two);
Disposed of digital assets in exchange for property or services;
Disposed of a digital asset in exchange or trade for another digital asset;
Sold a digital asset; or
Otherwise disposed of any other financial interest in a digital asset.
Those who tick the “Yes” box must also report all income related to their digital asset transactions on relevant forms. For instance, an investor who sold cryptocurrency during 2022 would use Form 8949, Sales and other Dispositions of Capital Assets.

Taxpayers should check the “No” box if they merely owned digital assets but didn’t engage in any transactions involving them in 2022.

They should also tick “No” if they merely transferred digital assets from one wallet or account they own or control to another one that they own or control, and if they bought digital assets using real currency like the U.S. dollar.

Many Americans Will See Smaller Tax Refunds
The IRS has warned that many taxpayers should expect a smaller refund this tax season because of tax law changes including the expiration of pandemic-related stimulus payments that would otherwise have boosted refund balances.

“Due to tax law changes such as the elimination of the Advance Child Tax Credit and no Recovery Rebate Credit this year to claim pandemic-related stimulus payments, many taxpayers may find their refunds somewhat lower this year,” the IRS said in a press release on Jan. 23, the day the agency began tax returns for 2022 earnings.

Not all tax filers will see lower refunds as individual circumstances vary; many will see smaller checks.

The Recovery Rebate Credit was a way for millions of Americans to receive pandemic support if they did not receive their full amount via stimulus checks.

This credit was available for missing amounts from the first, second, and third round stimulus checks, and could only be claimed on 2020 and 2021 tax returns.

The stimulus checks were discontinued in December 2021 and the missing third-round amounts could only be claimed on a 2021 tax return filed in 2022.

However, people who may have missed the opportunity to claim missing third-round stimulus payments can review their 2021 tax return and consider filing an amended return.

The Child Tax Credit (CTC) for 2022 tax returns has been reduced to $2,000 per child, down from the expanded amount of $3,600 for children under 6 and $3,000 for children between 6 and 17 in 2021.

Some taxpayers may be eligible for an Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC), which would allow them to receive up to $1,500 of the CTC as a refund on their tax return.

Also, a tax credit that working parents can use to help cover child care costs or that people with adult dependents can use for the same purpose is lower in 2022.

For tax year 2021, qualifying expenses were raised from $3,000 to $8,000 for one qualifying person and from $6,000 to $16,000 for two or more. The percentage eligible for the credit was increased from 35 percent to 50 percent.

But for 2022, qualifying expenses have been reduced back down to $3,000 for one person and to $6,000 for two or more. The percentage of qualified expenses that can be claimed now range from 20 percent to 35 percent.

The temporary enhancements also made the child and dependent care credit fully refundable. But for 2022, it has become non-refundable, meaning that at best it can only reduce one’s tax bill to zero.


Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Gold
« Reply #2412 on: January 26, 2023, 03:16:44 AM »
Gold Prices Buoyed by Rally as Investors Get on Board
Most-actively traded futures contract rises about 20% from September low
By Hardika SinghFollow
Jan. 26, 2023 5:30 am ET

Gold is starting the year with gains.

Gold purchases by everyone from central banks to institutions and ordinary investors have lifted the precious metal in 12 of the past 16 sessions, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The most-actively traded gold futures contract has climbed about 20% from its September low to above $1,940 an ounce—its highest level since April 2022. Prices are poised to gain for the sixth consecutive week, which would mark the longest weekly winning streak since the nine-week run that carried gold to a record of $2,069.40 in August 2020.

The advance comes after rising interest rates dragged gold to a lukewarm 2022. Gold avoided the steeper, double-digit losses suffered by stocks and bonds, but still disappointed those who had expected it to thrive during a time of elevated inflation. Now, signs of cooling price increases and weakening growth are lifting investors’ hopes of a respite from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate increases.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury inflation-protected security, a gauge of the risk-free return investors can get from bonds after adjusting for expected inflation, shot upward last year from a trough of around minus 1% in March to as high as positive 1.75% in October. Rising real yields tend to drag on the price of gold by diverting cash into alternative safe investments. That pressure, however, has abated in recent months, with the 10-year TIPS yield recently back down to 1.2%.

The WSJ Dollar Index has also retreated from its high of last year, falling about 10% since its 52-week high of late September and decreasing the cost of gold for overseas investors.

“If you’re patient enough, gold will start to do well,” said Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer of Rockefeller Global Family Office.

SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest physically backed gold exchange-traded fund, has climbed 6.8% so far this month, outpacing the S&P 500 index’s 4.6% advance. Shares of gold producers have rallied, with Barrick Gold Corp. adding 15%, Newmont Corp. gaining 17% and Royal Gold Inc. jumping 17%.

Joe Zappia, co-chief investment officer at LVW Advisors in New York, said he expects “pretty substantial inflows from institutions and investors into gold.”

Hedge funds and other speculative investors have pushed net bullish bets on gold to the highest levels since April 2022, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data tracking futures and options during the week ended Jan. 17. That is a sharp divergence from their bearish positioning during fall of last year.

Other precious metals are also enjoying a resurgence. Silver and platinum, both of which are used as precious and industrial metals, have added about 25% and 15% over the past three months, respectively.

Open interest value in futures contracts for the precious metals—a measure of market participation—earlier this month hit its highest weekly level since May 2022, according to J.P. Morgan Commodities Research.

Despite the murky economic picture, some expect China’s reopening could also boost prices, investors said, while worries about a U.S. recession could increase the appeal of stable investments such as gold. Many also expect slowing growth to spur rate cuts as soon as later this year, which would ease pressure on the metal.

ya

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ya

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Disbelief


Crafty_Dog

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Scary how closely that tracks me!!!  :-D :-D :-D

ya

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You may like this too...all spelt out.

« Last Edit: January 29, 2023, 09:28:42 AM by ya »

Crafty_Dog

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 :-D

Crafty_Dog

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Central Banks of Russia and Iran connect
« Reply #2418 on: January 30, 2023, 06:32:32 PM »


Russia and Iran. The central banks of Russia and Iran established a direct communication and transfer channel to encourage trade and financial transactions between the two countries. Russia’s SPFS financial transfer system is now linked to Iran’s SEPAM, which is also connected to 106 other foreign banks, according to the Central Bank of Iran’s governor. Iran was cut off from the SWIFT banking system in 2018, while a number of major Russian banks were also banned from SWIFT last year.

ya

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BTC in Nigeria
« Reply #2419 on: January 31, 2023, 04:21:32 AM »
« Last Edit: January 31, 2023, 04:43:21 AM by Crafty_Dog »

ya

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ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2421 on: February 04, 2023, 05:48:06 AM »

Lots of money flowing through the BTC network, probably more than VISA card now.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2023, 05:51:03 AM by ya »

ya

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Why BTC can't be taken down by government
« Reply #2422 on: February 05, 2023, 05:56:50 AM »
Why BTC cant be taken down by govt

https://twitter.com/i/status/1622216058059857920
« Last Edit: February 05, 2023, 06:43:06 AM by Crafty_Dog »

ccp

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FTX asks politicians to return their donations
« Reply #2423 on: February 06, 2023, 02:49:54 PM »
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/02/06/ftx-asks-lawmakers-who-received-donations-to-return-funds/

I am thinking if any Dems do anything is they would  claim  donate the money to charity

and of course a left leaning charity

 :wink:


ccp

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yield curve most in 40 yrs
« Reply #2424 on: February 09, 2023, 09:43:32 AM »

Crafty_Dog

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Grannis: Sky is not falling
« Reply #2425 on: February 09, 2023, 03:52:09 PM »

ya

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Gensler, giving financial advice
« Reply #2426 on: February 10, 2023, 04:13:20 AM »
Gensler, giving financial advice

https://twitter.com/i/status/1623795469754241024
« Last Edit: February 10, 2023, 07:16:48 AM by Crafty_Dog »

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2427 on: February 20, 2023, 08:42:12 AM »
Must read book

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2428 on: February 20, 2023, 10:46:31 AM »
Ordered.

ya

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ya

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Why BTC is #1
« Reply #2431 on: February 21, 2023, 02:01:01 PM »
« Last Edit: February 22, 2023, 06:35:38 AM by Crafty_Dog »

G M

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The Petro-Yuan
« Reply #2432 on: February 22, 2023, 12:51:24 PM »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2433 on: February 23, 2023, 05:44:34 AM »
The dollar may be "strong" right now, but there is a lot of resentment out there over our government using it and threats of withholding it to assert political pressure.  Today's episode, the country we saved from Sadam Hussein:

The dollar has remained strong "because there is no alternative".   If/when the perception of the rise of an alternative takes hold , , , some of us are old enough to remember the stampede into the Swiss Franc, the Deutsche Mark, and the Yen in the 1970s under Carter.

India has increased its trade four-fold with Russia.  Russia is now China's little brother.  This is a majority of the world's population.  What need now for the dollar for anyone selling oil to China?  IIRC Iran has already reached this conclusion.

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2434 on: February 23, 2023, 05:20:19 PM »
By putting a hold on Russian dollar reserves and kicking them out of SWIFT, we shot ourselves in the foot. Slowly its becoming a multipolar world, Even  today almost everything is priced in $, but when tens of countries start to trade in their local currencies, change will happen, perhaps another 10 years or so! before the dollar takes a big hit.

Everyone knows that the US has no intention of paying back its 31 T debt, so the future path is inflation of money, or grab a Store Of Value, digital Gold like BTC. That is why the Master's thesis of Jason Lowery is very important, hopefully the smart brains in govt will pay attention. As a side note: I got my copy from Amazon, its their #1 best seller in some categories. Amazon provides a high resolution print, later in a few months MIT press will release a lower resolution version.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2435 on: February 23, 2023, 05:35:43 PM »
I like your analysis there YA- a lot distilled into a few pithy words.

My copy of Softwar arrived today.

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2436 on: February 23, 2023, 06:36:59 PM »
Remember its a Master's thesis from MIT, so go slow and enjoy the diagrams etc. The basic idea is that future wars will be hash wars, as opposed to kinetic weapon wars, as to why, you have to read the book.

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Russia turns to Yuan to ditch the dollar
« Reply #2437 on: February 28, 2023, 06:36:37 AM »


Russia Turns to China’s Yuan in Effort to Ditch the Dollar
Moscow has jettisoned longstanding concerns about giving China too much leverage over its economy
By Chelsey DulaneyFollow
, Evan GershkovichFollow
 and Victoria Simanovskaya
Feb. 28, 2023 5:30 am ET


Russia’s economy, restricted from Western financial networks and the U.S. dollar, has embraced a burgeoning alternative: the Chinese yuan.

Energy exporters are increasingly getting paid in yuan. Russia’s sovereign-wealth fund, a war chest to support government spending burdened by battlefield costs in Ukraine, is using the Chinese currency to store its oil riches. Russian companies have borrowed in yuan, also known as renminbi, and households are stashing savings in it.

The Chinese currency’s rise inside Russia deepens ties between two countries that have long rivaled each other for global influence but have grown closer amid shared discontent with the West. It also serves China’s long standing but mostly frustrated campaign to make the yuan a more prominent feature of global finance and commerce.

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Moscow has jettisoned concerns about giving China too much leverage over its economy, said Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“Now it’s the only rational choice for Russia and for Putin,” Mr. Gabuev said. “If depending on renminbi is the lifeline that helps you to be less exposed and less dependent on hostile currencies, then you take this route.”

A spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Finance said the yuan is “taking an increasingly important role” in its sovereign-wealth fund, which doubled the share of yuan it can hold to 60% in December. The ministry started selling yuan in January to plug its widening budget deficit.

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The share of Russian exports paid for in yuan rose to 14% by September, according to data from the central bank. That is up from 0.4% before the start of the war.

Spokespeople for China’s central bank didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Russia began cutting its dependence on the dollar in 2014 after its annexation of Crimea. By 2018, as the U.S. imposed additional economic sanctions, the country began to sell its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and explore trade in rubles and other currencies.

De-dollarization went into overdrive, and widened to include the euro, last year. Western countries froze some $300 billion of Russia’s foreign reserves and banned some of its banks from the SWIFT messaging system that underpins most global payments in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.


The Russian Finance Ministry started selling yuan in January to plug its widening budget deficit.
PHOTO: KONSTANTIN KOKOSHKIN/RUSSIAN LOOK/ZUMA PRESS

Russians don’t face an outright ban on using dollars or euros, and non-sanctioned banks continue to do business in foreign currencies.

Booming trade between Russia and China added to the yuan’s appeal. China has become a major buyer of Russian oil that is shunned by the West, while Russia has grown more dependent on China for semiconductors and other technology.

Russian companies have also turned to the yuan and issued bonds in the Chinese currency worth the equivalent of more than $7 billion last year, according to Refinitiv data. In recent weeks, the yuan-ruble was often the most traded currency pair on the Moscow Exchange based on daily volume.

Aluminum giant Rusal was the first company to issue yuan bonds inside Russia last August, and other commodity exporters like oil firm Rosneft followed. Most trade with China and can use yuan raised for everyday business, for example to pay invoices.

Bistrodengi, a Russian lending platform, started selling yuan bonds last year despite not doing any business in the Chinese currency. The company’s chief finance officer, Yakov Romashkin, said borrowing in yuan was far cheaper than rubles. Its bonds offer a coupon rate of 8% instead of the 19% that it likely would have had to pay to borrow in rubles.

The Russian broker that arranged Bistrodengi’s previous ruble bond offerings ran the deal, and buyers were predominantly individual Russian investors, he said. It swapped the yuan back into rubles.

Mr. Romashkin said there were technological hiccups. Some brokers weren’t fully set up to sell yuan securities, with some displaying incorrect information about Bistrodengi’s bonds, he said. Some didn’t allow investors to buy bonds using their app, instead requiring trades be done over the phone.

“Gradually we are solving these problems and subsequent placements have had fewer technical problems compared to when we started the process late last year,” he said.

Households are warming up to the yuan. Nearly 50 financial institutions offer yuan savings accounts, according to comparison site Banki.ru. The first yuan-denominated exchange-traded fund launched on the Moscow Exchange in January.

Households held almost $6 billion worth of yuan deposited at the end of last year at Russian banks, according to data from the central bank. That is up from zero at the start of the year, and is now more than a 10th of the $53 billion in foreign currency that households held.

Russian financial blogger and consultant Olga Gogaladze, who has more than 2 million Instagram followers, in October published a guide to the yuan after being inundated with questions about the currency last year. Russians have long bought dollars and euros to protect themselves against the ruble’s volatility. That changed last year as banks instituted fees on those accounts and many worried about the impact of Western sanctions.

“Conversations were going around about the end of the dollar,” Ms. Gogaladze said. “The yuan was presented as an available alternative.”

She has a yuan bank account at Russian digital bank Tinkoff but still prefers to hold most of her money in rubles, euros and dollars. She said yuan accounts typically have lower interest rates than those for rubles, but they still can be a good option for people worried about a devaluation of the ruble.


Households held almost $6 billion worth of yuan deposited at the end of last year at Russian banks.
PHOTO: VLAD KARKOV/ZUMA PRESS

“When people see the ruble is getting weaker and weaker, they don’t care about the yield, they just want to save their money,” she said.

While still in its early days, some see Russia’s yuan use as a test case in a debate that has long captivated the financial world: Will the yuan eventually rival the dollar as the world’s dominant currency?

But building the infrastructure to circumvent the dollar-based financial system built up over decades is slow, difficult and expensive, said Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University and former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division.

China launched a cross-border payments system known as CIPS in 2015 that has been billed as an eventual competitor to the 50-year-old SWIFT network. But its system hasn’t yet been widely adopted by other countries, according to Mr. Prasad. Instead, Russian and Chinese banks rely on networks of local branches and correspondent banks to process transactions without SWIFT. The Russian central bank this month set up an international settlements department it said would focus on expanding settlements in national currencies.

While Russia’s use of the yuan doesn’t mean the end of dollar supremacy, it may usher in the beginning of a more fractured system that could ultimately blunt the U.S.’s ability to use financial sanctions as a weapon, said Daniel McDowell, a professor at Syracuse University who recently wrote a book on the topic.

“The more countries you force to find those alternatives,” Mr. McDowell said, “effectively what you’re going to do is increase economies of scale and experience in those areas.”

—Rebecca Feng contributed to this article.

Write to Chelsey Dulaney at chelsey.dulaney@wsj.com and Evan Gershkovich at evan.gershkovich@wsj.com

Crafty_Dog

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Digital Currency
« Reply #2438 on: March 01, 2023, 02:03:30 PM »

ccp

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Biden to request 1.6 B
« Reply #2439 on: March 02, 2023, 02:42:46 PM »
more

to fight 100B covid fraud

https://nypost.com/2023/03/02/biden-begs-congress-for-1-6b-to-fight-100b-in-covid-fraud/

just utterly crazy ..........

next  up: we need a billion to fight Ukrainian fraud

Dems :  they way they  cut fraud and abuse of government spending  by guess what - even more spending!

 :-o :-o :-o :roll:


DougMacG

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The fraud was a feature, not a bug of COVID funding.

Let me guess, 90% of it happened in blue cities and and blue states.

G M

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The fraud was a feature, not a bug of COVID funding.

Let me guess, 90% of it happened in blue cities and and blue states.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/california-inmates-covid-19-unemployment-benefits-fraud-from-prison.amp

ya

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BTC if oil spikes
« Reply #2442 on: March 02, 2023, 06:45:15 PM »
Interesting read from Arthur Hayes, about how BTC might be affected if oil spikes.

https://cryptohayes.medium.com/curve-ball-c9866f34555
« Last Edit: March 03, 2023, 07:18:22 AM by Crafty_Dog »


ya

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Started with Silvergate bank, now a good old fashioned bank run happening on  Silicon Valley Bank. These are traditional banks, supposedly well regulated...everything will get blamed on BTC. Hope it does not become a contagion.

Silvergate Capital -42%
SVB Financial Group -60%
Credit Suisse -5%
« Last Edit: March 10, 2023, 03:20:53 AM by ya »

Crafty_Dog

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BTC was at 23, this morning at 19.  Is this why?

ya

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Yes, when there is a crisis, people dump first and think later. At this time BTC is back over 20.2 K. Actually with all thats going run with the Crypto world, it is amazing that BTC is relatively stable.
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is the largest bank to fail after the 2008 financial crisis. By monday, it will be taken over by a larger bank, or the bodies will start to float up. One of the investors in SVB is the Circle stablecoin (USDC) with 3.3 Billion investment. Contagion is on the mind of people...hopefully it will be contained. I think the Fed making a 50 bps hike is now off the table.

« Last Edit: March 11, 2023, 06:54:47 AM by ya »

ya

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Remember this


ya

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See the linkages, for USDC, the Circle stable coin. Currently, it has lost its peg of 1$.

ya

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Panic, begging for a bail out. SVB is all democratic donors!, moral hazard. Do we bail out and relive post 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Money printer go brr..