Author Topic: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold  (Read 618063 times)

Body-by-Guinness

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“Stupidity Knows No Bounds”
« Reply #3050 on: June 20, 2024, 02:19:35 PM »
I think Chiefio makes an interesting association between executive powers being migrated to the permanent bureaucracy and these counterproductive sanctions. Didn’t realize, moreover, that China is getting out of US bonds, while the Saudi’s are dumping the US stock market:

Sanctions On China (via Russia) – Buy Junk Now.
Posted on 17 June 2024 by E.M.Smith
Intro

Whoever is running the US Government is busy moving as much power as possible from the office of the President to the Permanent Government of the Bureaucracy. This is being done to “prevent” Trump doing anything when he gets elected, and because they can do this with Biden in office since he is too clueless to protest it.

Secondary Sanctions

The US has now empowered the Treasury to put “sanctions” on anyone (Banks, Companies,…) who supplies anything in the way of support to Russia, via declaring that Russia is running a “War Economy” so the whole economy is OK to target.

This, then, points the Sanctions Weapon at Chinese Banks and Industries… And also lays the groundwork for direct sanctions on China once the TLAs tell congress / POTUS to start a war with China over Taiwan.

The idea is that this will break Russia via breaking their dependence on China.

But 2 problems with that idea.

Russia is not dependent on China, we in The West are. (Over 90% of medicinal chemicals come from China now, as one example. Rare Earths. And a whole lot more.)

This will push Russia and China closer together, not further apart. It will also push a whole lot more countries into the BRICS+ sphere. 59 at last count waiting to officially join (and move away from the Colonial Abuse of the EU, UK, and USA systems).

Sidenote: The Russian Stock Exchange is now pricing, and clearing, with Yuan instead of $US since the $US is no longer stable from their POV. Ever more things in Russia will now have Yuan benchmark prices.

Note that China is down from over $3 Trillion of US Treasuries to $750 Billion or so. These are likely Short Dated (less than 10 year maturity) and will “run off’ even if not sold outright.

Note that Saudi Arabia has sold about 1/2 of their TOTAL US Stocks. (It isn’t just the $US and US Banks that are now untrustworthy, but Stocks held in brokerages as well). Expect a whole lot of other countries to be moving out of ANY Financial Instrument subject to US Sanctions (or EU freezes or confiscations…)

These folks are not dumb, so will be moving out of those positions in a very controlled way so as not to crash prices.

Where will they move their money & stocks? Into BRICS+ nations and Banks, I think.

FWIW, I’m using Brazil and India for my BRICS+ investments. Mostly just due to Russia being unavailable to me in the US markets, and China being less trustworthy than I’d like (a long history of adulterating products and materials, spying, and capricious rules changes by the Communists running the place).

There are likely also some banks in places like Malaysia, Cayman Islands, etc. that will benefit from a rapid run “off shore”.

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I’d expect a lot more stock buys from folks like The House Of Saud, to be into Chinese and Russian companies, but also India and Brazil. Then there will be direct investments into places like Africa and South America where I can’t “take a stake” as it isn’t an exchange traded product and might have the USA ban it anyway… But, as usual for all things stocks “We’ll see” and we will let the charts be our guide.

So, IFF you have a pile of $US and you have things you expect to need in the next 1/2 dozen years that are largely made in China; best to convert those $$ into “stuff” and put it on the shelf (assuming it stores well…). Between ongoing (and rising soon) inflation, decreasing supplies (due to sanctioned companies), and prices shooting up suddenly (punitive tariffs applied suddenly). That’s my POV and what I’m going to do for me (you do you based on your needs and abilities). So going shopping for some tools at Harbor Freight, getting any “kitchen ware” and appliances I think I might need, looking at the replacement vacuum cleaner, making sure my stock of canning jars, lids, pressure canners, etc. are good for a decade or so worth of use, making sure all the tires on cars are new-ish and getting that oldest car painted (most paint chemicals no longer come from the USA…). You get the idea.

So “Going Forward” I’ll likely be making some postings of graphs of Indian and Brazilian company’s stocks vs EU / UK / US stocks. I’ll be avoiding any US & EU Bonds (and likely and UK bonds as well). The last US Treasury Auction was something of a dud, and The Fed ended up buying a lot of them – this is, IMHO, likely to get worse.

So, in addition to “stacking” metals, one ought to also consider “stacking” things you expect to buy in the next few years ( I need some more shirts, shorts, & pants for example – so buying a decade worth since my size doesn’t change much ;-) along with the usual “collectibles” that go up in times of inflation: Gems, art, etc.

I don’t see anything at all moving against this onslaught. The Greens and GEBs are busy destroying Western Industry, Western Financial Systems, Western Currencies, and more. This will result in a hard recession (perhaps even reaching depression if done long enough) so I’d not buy Real Estate until after that finishes crashing (usually a few years after the economy rolls over). At this point, I’m of the opinion that even Trump can not stop (or perhaps even slow significantly) this World Evil Forum / GEBs / TLAs push to destruction of The West and The Common Man. So pretty much “Duck and Cover” financially is all that I see as available to me.

Here’s The Duran take on this:



End Note

On FinViz, I’ve noticed they have blocks for Bitcoin ETFs now. They are fairly large, indicating a lot of money is in them. I’ll likely make some kind of posting of how they are moving relative to other currencies. Why? Not because I think BitCoin is investable. It is, IMHO, for trading not investing. BUT, I expect a LOT of folks with “questionable banking history” desiring to move money out of $US, &Euro; and £ to look at BitCoin as an easy way to move cross borders and into “sanctioned” destinations that might otherwise have their funds blocked.

Essentially, I’m curious to see if the tea leaves show such money flows.

On the lower right side of this chart:

https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=etf&st=w4

you can find tickers for exchange traded funds (ETFs) in Bitcoin. Tickers like FBIT, GBIT, BITO, IBIT and more. That’s one way of watching for price action there.

Just why our Rulers here in the Rule Based Order want to destroy the western financial systems, currencies, and trust in our companies, banks, and laws is a bit beyond my pay grade. It could be sheer stupidity, hubris, or some “clever scheme” to buy it all up once collapsed. Who knows.

About the only thing that is clear is that “This will not end well”, and trying to get off the sinking ship and into financial lifeboats is best done before everyone else is trying to do it at the same time (likely a few months from now IMHO). We have a Global Cabal of Puppets & Clowns as our “leadership” doing very damaging things based on fantasies (such as Global Warming or Ukraine can Win or Russia will fail…) and thinking themselves smart. But who is pulling their strings… WEF? TLAs? GEBs? All of the above?

Sigh. “Intelligence is limited but stupidity knows no bounds. -E.M.Smith”

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2024/06/17/sanctions-on-china-via-russia-buy-junk-now/

Crafty_Dog

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The price of Bitcoin has continued to fall at the end of a bumpy week, trading at $63,554 as of writing. Adding to the downward pressure is a sell-off by the German government, unloading BTC seized by law enforcement from illicit activities. Amid increased volatility, an overall decline has persisted, leaving the top cryptocurrency down nearly 10% over two weeks.

======================

https://decrypt.co/236507/bitcoin-will-soar-thanks-to-failing-japanese-banks-says-arthur-hayes
« Last Edit: June 23, 2024, 01:16:46 PM by Crafty_Dog »

ya

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There are multiple lines of evidence (Technical Analysis from TechDev_52) as well as Socrates analysis from Martin Armstrong suggesting BTC should peak between Nov 2024 and March 2025. I think the upward move should start soon, perhaps by July next month. Interesting times ahead. As a side note: No one can predict anything with certainty, but the tea leaves certainly say that.

Socrates text is computer generated and hard to follow without the chart but it says essentially the same thing, using very different tools and info. "Our key target was May with the opposite trend implied thereafter into July, which is a Directional Change (NOTE: this can be intraday or on a closing basis). The strongest target in the Monthly array is October for a turning point ahead, at least on a closing basis. There are 2 Monthly Directional Change targets starting from June to July, warning of a potential choppy swing period for these few Months. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction. It does appear we have a choppy period starting July until August with each target producing the opposite direction for that 2-month period. Thereafter, we see the next target coming into play as December until March 2025 with again each target producing the opposite direction for that 4-month period. However, the important target during that period will be March 2025"


« Last Edit: June 23, 2024, 05:33:52 PM by ya »

Crafty_Dog

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Decrypt Media

Bitcoin’s recent downswing got much worse Monday following word from collapsed BTC exchange Mt. Gox that creditors will finally begin receiving repayments after 10 years. That’s good news, right? Sure, but the markets quickly reflected fears that billions of dollars’ worth of Bitcoin would be dumped soon, triggering a selloff that’s impacted most major coins.

By early afternoon, Bitcoin had dipped under the $60,000 mark for the first time since early May, falling more than 6% in the process, and it’s back there again as of this writing. Liquidations are piling up too, with about $340 million worth of positions zapped over the past day across all crypto assets.

=============================

📝 What you need to know
Institutional investors have been relentlessly selling U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Outflows hit $174 million yesterday as Bitcoin plunged on news that Mt. Gox creditors will begin receiving repayments next week, with potentially billions of dollars worth of BTC set to flood the market.

After Bitcoin briefly slipped below $60,000 Monday, crypto whale watchers suggested that accumulation whales could swoop in to halt the bearish trend for a “potential V-shaped rebound.”
« Last Edit: June 25, 2024, 11:05:56 AM by Crafty_Dog »

ya

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"Without BTC America is essentially doomed"
« Reply #3054 on: June 27, 2024, 04:14:33 AM »
Below is from a post on X (@marsquaking). In the past, I have posted on Softwar a book by Jason Lowery, the main thesis of the book is that the US govt needs to own BTC for power projection and that without BTC the US is essentially doomed.

"I have been closely following
@JasonPLowery
 ever since reading his thesis.  Sometime around June last year he was formally ordered by his commanding officers in the DoD to cease publication of his thesis and perhaps more importantly to cease speaking publicly about the thesis.  Over the last several months Jason would occasionally make posts about his thesis and then delete them after a short amount of time, presumably skirting his orders. 

This month he has made some posts that he has left up that seem to be going against his orders.  On June 7th President Trump hosted a roundtable discussion with hash industry leaders.  Also on June 7th Jason confirmed via a post on X that is still up at the time of writing that he has been reached out to by people on Trump's administration and is prepared to move to DC if called upon.

On June 11th President Trump posted on Truth Social how Bitcoin will help the US be energy dominant.  The next day on June 12th Jason made a post that again is still up saying "Let the #softwar begin 🇺🇸🦌🫡🤫👋".  Then he changed his PFP from him in civilian clothing to him in military fatigues and made one last tweet saying "Going dark 😉" a few days later and hasn't posted anything either bitcoin related or otherwise since.

If our nation is beginning to realize the validity and significance of Jason's thesis then no one is bullish enough not just on Bitcoin but humanity and how things are going to go in this century and beyond.  Everyone is very hyped on AI but many people are sleeping on softwar and it's going to be so important.  Softwar is what leads to hyperbitcoinization, and it could happen faster than anyone anticipated for reasons that go way beyond money.

I don't know if Jason is leaving those tweets up in direct violation of his orders or if he received special permission.  Either way the signal is ridiculously bullish for humanity."
« Last Edit: June 27, 2024, 06:16:19 AM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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Decrypt Media
« Reply #3055 on: June 28, 2024, 11:27:38 AM »

Ethereum giant Consensys sued by SEC 🚨
The U.S. regulator takes aim at Consensys for its MetaMask staking service. What happens now?

    
Andrew Hayward

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📝 What you need to know
We heard a couple weeks back that the SEC was reportedly done investigating Ethereum—but that didn’t mean the U.S. regulator was done with Consensys.

On Friday, the SEC filed suit against the Ethereum software giant (disclosure: one of 22 investors in Decrypt), alleging that it “acted as an unregistered broker of crypto asset securities” via its MetaMask staking service.

Consensys previously filed suit against the SEC in April, taking an offensive posture amid an expectation of enforcement action—and amid claims that the agency had secretly referred to ETH as a security internally for some time.

ya

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July should be good for BTC...lets see.

Crafty_Dog

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 8-)

ya

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Nice interview of Luke Gromen on Gold and BTC. He is super smart in my opinion.

https://youtu.be/Vv9DVOhyNhE

Crafty_Dog

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The discussion of BTC begins at 14:30.

ya

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Crafty_Dog

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Decrypt Media
« Reply #3061 on: July 02, 2024, 06:27:57 AM »
US and Germany are moving their Bitcoin 💨
Are governments dumping their Bitcoin? Latest data shows BTC on the move.


    
Andrew Hayward

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📝 What you need to know
Bitcoin is off to a positive start this week, up nearly 2% on the day to a price around $63,300 and bouncing back just one week after plunging below the $60,000 mark. And as Bitcoin goes, so too does the rest of the market, with the vast majority of coins in the top 100 by market cap in the green today.

The market doesn’t appear spooked by news that the German government is moving its Bitcoin to exchanges again, following multiple moves last week, and the U.S. government also moved some of its seized assets around. All told, the two governments made more than $100 million worth of BTC moves on Monday ahead of potential sales.

ya

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60K is important support, it should not break!. BTC usually goes down enough to scare everyone and then reverses



Timing wise, post halving we are still on track and this pullback is to be expected

« Last Edit: July 03, 2024, 04:33:55 AM by ya »

ya

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Bullish. I have talked about Game Theory many times. Just imagine what happens if the US adds BTC to their treasury. We need to hold some BTC, Gold, Treasuries etc.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/07/03/trump-sparks-talks-of-bitcoin-as-a-strategic-reserve-asset/

ya

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Here are the last 3 halving cycles..nothinh out of the ordinary


ya

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Have a great 4th

ya

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Good read on the state of BTC, written  10 yrs apart

https://www.axiombtc.capital/attack

ya

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Fact


ccp

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That describes me !

Crafty_Dog

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Decrypt
« Reply #3069 on: July 04, 2024, 01:03:59 PM »
Cryptocurrency firms have hit back at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, with Coinbase filing a notice in its ongoing legal battle with the regulator just days after suing the SEC and FDIC for their failure to comply with FOIA requests.

Binance’s U.S. arm, meanwhile, has said that it’s looking forward to its day in court with the SEC, accusing the regulator of offering “limited guidance” to crypto firms.

For its part, the SEC continues to fire off lawsuits, yesterday filing suit alleging that shuttered crypto-friendly bank Silvergate had misled the public and failed to properly monitor an estimated $1 trillion worth of transactions.

ya

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ya

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Crafty_Dog

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Thank you for that chart YA.

FWIW, here is Decrypto:

 What you need to know
Bitcoin tumbled to lows not seen since early May Thursday, as jitters spread through the crypto markets, sparking hundreds of millions of dollars in crypto liquidations.

Traders were spooked by test transactions sent earlier this week by the trustee for defunct exchange Mt. Gox ahead of creditor repayments, as well as transfers by the German government of BTC holdings worth over $70 million to exchanges.

Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve minutes revealed that inflation had showed signs of easing, but remained above its 2% target range, likely causing short term pain for risk assets such as crypto.

ccp

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DougMacG

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Fed, dollar, inflation rant
« Reply #3074 on: July 06, 2024, 07:11:13 AM »
[The Fed, Inflation, from a previous post] "remained above its 2% target range,"

Like getting a D in math when your target was a C.

[Doug]   Could we PLEASE get rid of the 2% target.  My proposal is 0.2%, but certainly less than 1%.
6
The power of compounding inflation is the most powerful financial force in the world.

A dollar from a century ago when the federal reserve was created has 2 cents of value left, and what I hear the Fed saying is what a great job they're doing and what a great job their predecessors did and so on.  Shoot for 2%, get 3%, and you are off by 50%, not 1%. At 3%, the half life of a dollar is cut down to less than a generation.  Inflation above that and your 'reserve' currency is a joke.  Chair Powell: 'we can't criticize Congress for running multi trillion dollar deficits, that's our boss...'

Bullsh*t.  'Independent agency'. If you can't do your job, you must at least tell us what's stopping you.

ya

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"Why is India adding gold? More and more countries are doing bilateral trade bypassing USD and  as
@LukeGromen has mentioned it many times … the net settlement between 2 countries who don’t want to use USD .. they will use Gold.

Hence GOLD is now a new BRICS currency"

ccp

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" A dollar from a century ago when the federal reserve was created has 2 cents of value left "

1920  - "a penny saved is a penny earned"

1970 - " a dollar saved is a dollar earned"

2024 - "a ten dollar bill is ten dollars earned"

and on into infinity, till the eventual chaos and collapse.

Agree why is 2% acceptable - where the hell did that come from?
« Last Edit: July 06, 2024, 02:24:07 PM by ccp »

DougMacG

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" why is 2% acceptable - where the hell did that come from? "

  -  First I'm just glad I got someone else or found someone else mad about it.  Caring about monetary policy is kind of a lonely habit. People vote but mostly have no interest the inner workings.

Of course the 2% target was pulled out of thin air. They are SO afraid of deflation that they create huge intentional inflation. It shouldn't be so much that it becomes the largest problem in the world - created to avoid the largest problem in the world, as it seems to be right now.

Imagine the inflation rate from the 9% continued upward or stayed at that level, we would really be in a mess.  A lot of us that saw how horribly they are mismanaging the economy would not be surprised. S*** hit the fan is an industry, people expecting the bottom to fall out, the grid to crash, the city water pumps and gas pumps to shut off etc.

We almost had a total Financial collapse at the last Financial crisis. The experts told us it would have gone all the way down had they not done all those things ("inject liquidity") they should not have the power to do.

So we already lost it all and wonder if it's possible to lose it all.

In the meantime we spend 40% more than we take in, or did it drop to 39.5% more than we take in?

We borrow more than is imaginable and we have debt service that's taking over the budget.

What could go wrong is quickly becoming a question of past tense, what went wrong? And the answers are all around us.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2024, 01:15:08 PM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Decrypto
« Reply #3078 on: July 06, 2024, 05:08:33 PM »
Bitcoin and the crypto market were already down for the week when repayments to Mt. Gox creditors officially began yesterday. More than a decade after the massive Japanese exchange collapsed, the long-anticipated milestone pushed the price of BTC down further, dragging down most other cryptocurrencies.

The top coin has rebounded a bit in the past 24 hours, peeking above $58,000 on Saturday—but it’s still down 5% for the week and more than 18% over the past 30 days.

ccp

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DougMacG

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Posted previously:

" A dollar from a century ago when the federal reserve was created has 2 cents of value left "

More currently:

"Every dollar of 1980 has 25 cents left of it's value."

I picked this date as when I started real estate investing.  The IRS, with no act of Congress, disallows 75% of the purchase price deduction before calculating the capital gains tax, making long held assets impossible or stupid to sell. 

We don't need reductions in capital gains taxes as much as we need a correction in how they are calculated. 

In economics "real" means 'inflation adjusted'.  The opposite of adjusted for inflation, a 'capital gain' under the current method according to thesaurus is:
Fictitious
Imaginary
Unreal
Untrue
False
Mythical
Legendary
Fabulous
Fantastical
Counterfeit
Fake
Phony
Imitation
Ersatz
Mock
Pirate
Illusory and Unrealistic
Illusory
Unrealistic
Unreal
Unsubstantiated
Unproven
Unverified

Ask a liberal, what should the tax rate be on an illusory gain?
« Last Edit: July 08, 2024, 11:02:49 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Decrypto: Germany sells; institutions buy
« Reply #3081 on: July 08, 2024, 06:55:58 PM »
Bitcoin dips as Germany moves $900 million 💰
The German government ramped up its potential Bitcoin selloff Monday, moving a huge sum to exchanges and market makers.


    
Andrew Hayward


Bitcoin has had a volatile couple of days, bouncing between $54,000 and just above $58,000. It took a plunge late Sunday and then worked back up early Monday, prompting liquidations of longs and shorts alike—and then Germany started making serious moves.

The German government moved more than $900 million worth of seized Bitcoin to exchanges and market makers over the course of just 8 hours early Monday. This follows weeks of smaller moves by German officials.

While the movements don’t necessarily imply that all of that BTC has been sold off just yet, the moves appeared to spook the market, with a rapid 3% dip in Bitcoin’s price in a span of about 15 minutes. Bitcoin is now down 11% over the last week, as of this writing.

================

https://decrypt.co/238860/institutions-buy-dip-bitcoin-etfs-rebound-after-weeks-losses

ya

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This is huge. Republican manifesto pro BTC. If Trump comes, BTC will skyrocket. Other nations will follow suit.


ya

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Watch the ETF inflows, they are rising again. 5200 BTC purchased vs the avg of < 2000/day




Crafty_Dog

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Decrypto
« Reply #3084 on: July 09, 2024, 05:49:41 AM »
In a similar vein:

Bitcoin climbed back above $57,000 Tuesday morning, marking a significant recovery from the lows seen last week when its price slipped as low as $54,000. U.S. Bitcoin ETF inflows continued to show resilience despite market volatility, with $300 million in net inflows on Monday, marking their highest buying activity since early June as instituutions bought the dip.

With the estate of collapsed crypto exchange Mt. Gox set to begin its Bitcoin distribution “as soon as possible” according to Bitstamp, and the German government moving $900 million in BTC to exchanges, volatility is set to continue.

Body-by-Guinness

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Good thing the Biden admin is doling out all those college loan dollars to people with useless degrees they can’t hope to payback or indeed often leaves them unemployable and hence not able to contribute to a retirement system premised on the fact that future contributors will cover current needs, and thank goodness I’ve been forced to contribute for over 50 years to a system earning my a percentage of the return I would have seen if instead dropped into my retirement plan, a system that will be reducing what it pays in ten years, if not before:

Day of Reckoning for Social Security Draws Closer

The Beacon / by Craig Eyermann / Jul 9, 2024 at 4:06 PM

In ten years, Americans counting on Social Security benefits for income will be in for a shock.


The shock will come because the trust fund that provides about one-fifth of the cash Social Security benefits receive will run out of money in 2033. Starting in 2034, under current law, Social Security will only have enough money to pay 79% of its promised benefits. Everyone who receives retirement benefit payments from Social Security in that year will see that income stream slashed.

That’s according to Social Security’s Trustees, who issued their 2024 report in May. When the Old Age and Survivors’ Insurance (OASI) trust fund is depleted, the agency can only pay benefits from the money it collects through its dedicated payroll taxes. Technically, because that’s what is written into the current law, those reduced benefits are also promised benefits.

None of this is really news. Social Security’s trustees have been telling this same basic story for much of the last decade. The only parts of the story that have changed are the projected timing for when the trust fund will run out of money and how big the benefit cuts will be when that happens. As we get closer to these projected events, the Trustee’s estimates of their timing and the size of the benefit cuts have firmed as they should. At ten years out in 2024, they are no longer long-term projections.

Costly Choices Lie Ahead

Social Security’s trustees have some ideas for keeping Social Security’s retirement benefits at their 2033 level. One of those ideas involves taking money from its Disability Insurance trust fund and using it to pay both retirement and disability benefits. Doing that would delay benefit cuts for two years, after which all these benefit payments would be cut by 17%. The cuts would then continue, growing slowly until they reach 27% in 2098.

Another option would be to increase the payroll taxes that fund Social Security benefits. Right now, that’s 12.4% of the wage and salary income earned by working Americans, and most see half that amount come straight out of their paychecks while employers pay the other half. To avoid cutting Social Security benefits, the Trustees estimate they would have to increase the total employee and employer payroll tax rate to 15.73%.

A third option would hinge on when those who receive Social Security benefits start getting them. They could keep everyone who is already receiving Social Security benefits as of 2023 from experiencing any cuts. Doing that, however, would mean bigger benefit cuts for everyone who starts receiving benefits after that year. If they take this approach, anyone who starts collecting benefits in 2024 or after would see their benefits cut by almost 25%.

They could also mix and match these options. No matter what, whatever happens will take an act of Congress.

Speaking of which, Congress has at least six new Social Security bills to consider. One way or another, Social Security reform is coming. Whether anyone likes it or not.

The post Day of Reckoning for Social Security Draws Closer appeared first on The Beacon.

https://blog.independent.org/2024/07/09/day-of-reckoning-for-social-security-draws-closer/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=day-of-reckoning-for-social-security-draws-closer

ya

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Watch the BTC ETF flows. From an ETF expert "More $$$ went into IBIT *just today* than the *total assets* in nearly 90% of all 300+ ETFs that have launched this yr…"

ccp

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yes, but will the inflows just take us back to the 60 - 72K mark or ever get us beyond that?

Even not good at timing me thought 50K was a buy opp.

Do we still people who come to tell us 100 K by yr end.
Or 250 K or a million?

I think BTC still has to be easier to use for most.

Crafty_Dog

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Decrypto
« Reply #3088 on: July 10, 2024, 10:42:50 AM »

What you need to know
Bitcoin miners have had no shortage of rough patches since the halving event in April. Now, Wall Street research firm Bernstein says the miners primed to survive are the ones willing to pivot into building AI data centers.

The firm’s new report projected that mining firms could eventually derive as much as one-third of their enterprise value from hosting hardware that powers AI. And Bernstein expects that by 2027, at least 20% of the power used by Bitcoin miners will be to keep those AI rigs running.

To that end, the firm has begun covering Iris Energy (IREN) and Core Scientific (CORZ)—two firms which have already started building out their AI businesses.

Also see  https://decrypt.co/239217/bitcoin-bounces-above-59000-market-uncertainty-fades
« Last Edit: July 10, 2024, 10:59:20 AM by Crafty_Dog »

ya

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The writing is on the wall, both Trump and Kennedu are speaking at the largest US BTC conf

ya

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Looks like the Nasdaq leads BTC by a few months



Body-by-Guinness

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Delusional Deficit Spending
« Reply #3092 on: July 11, 2024, 04:40:22 PM »
Modern Monetary Theory is divorced from reality:

The Debt Delusion: Why Modern Monetary Theory Is a Luxury Belief
Cato @ Liberty / by Romina Boccia / Jul 11, 2024 at 8:38 AM
Romina Boccia

While Fed Chair Jerome Powell made the rounds on Capitol Hill this week, discussions about the Federal Reserve’s expectations for inflation have once again come to the forefront. Unsustainable government spending is raising inflationary pressures with potentially devastating consequences for the US economy. In this context, the belief that debt doesn’t matter, especially championed by proponents of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), appears more detached from reality than ever.

This notion, prevalent on the political left, claims that a government that issues its own currency can never run out of money in the same way a household or business might. Advocates argue that such a government can always print more money to pay off its debts, thereby sidestepping any constraints imposed by traditional fiscal discipline. While this might sound appealing, it’s a classic example of what sociologists call a “luxury belief”—an idea that is primarily held by those insulated from its real-world consequences.

“We are a sovereign currency, we can print all the money we want”—former House Budget Committee Chair John Yarmuth (D‑KY) at a congressional hearing.

Luxury beliefs, as sociologist Rob Henderson describes, are ideas that confer status on the rich while often burdening the less fortunate. The concept has traditionally been associated with cultural and social norms, but it applies equally well to economic theories like MMT. Proponents of this “magic money” theory, often shielded by their own economic stability, pay too little heed to how elegant theories on paper can lead to catastrophic outcomes in the real world.

A key argument against MMT’s false promise is that printing money for the sake of financing government spending leads to inflation. When a government prints money to cover excessive spending, it increases the money supply without a corresponding increase in goods and services. This creates an imbalance between available resources and the money available to purchase them, with the result being inflation—an increase in the price level that erodes the purchasing power of money. For the wealthy, this might mean adjustments to their investment portfolios or higher prices on certain items. For the poor and working class, however, inflation can be devastating.

Inflation Disproportionately Causes Hardship for Lower-Wage Workers

Inflation hits the most vulnerable the hardest. As FREEOPP has detailed in a recent study, inflation disproportionately affects the poor by increasing the cost of essential goods and services that they consume by more than is the case for the basket of goods enjoyed by wealthier individuals. This compounds low-earners’ financial struggles and exacerbates inequality. According to FREEOPP, “If we examine the absolute impact of inflation, we find that from 2004 to 2020, earners in the bottom decile experienced inflation that was 71 percentage points higher than for the top decile, on a compounded basis.”

In fact, as Timothy Carney, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, has pointed out, super-wealthy individuals, who rely less on their incomes, benefit from inflation as the value of their assets, such as homes and stocks, increases.

When those Americans living paycheck to paycheck see their costs of living rise without a commensurate and immediate increase in their incomes, this creates additional hardship. Essentials like food, housing, and transportation become more expensive, pushing them further into poverty and potentially leading to the need for additional borrowing, often at high rates, whether that be via credit cards or alternative financing methods. Unlike the wealthy, who can hedge against inflation with investments in assets like real estate and stocks, lower wage-earners, especially those living on current wages alone have more limited options to protect their finances against value erosion from inflation.

Elites Are More Insulated from Inflation

MMT’s proponents often come from academia, think tanks, and well-off political circles, environments where they are more insulated from the impacts of inflation. These individuals can afford to hold such beliefs without suffering the devastating consequences that lower-wage earners face when prices rise. Their luxury belief that the government can just print more money to finance deficit spending is rooted in a world of theoretical economics rather than the lived realities of everyday Americans.

This disconnect highlights a broader issue within economic policy debates. The luxury of academic and theoretical detachment allows influential voices to promote ideas that would be perilous if enacted. The consequences of such policies are less often borne by their proponents but by those least equipped to manage them—poorer working-class Americans.

Veronique De Rugy, a scholar with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, recently wrote about this disconnect when it comes to industrial policy debates, arguing that “tariffs and industrial policy arguments [are] self-serving and counterproductive, designed to elevate one’s personal status without regard to the practical consequences for those with less power and privilege in the world.” Her treatment of the issue inspired this post.

currency, treasury
Believing that government debt doesn’t matter, so long as this debt is held by a country that generates its own currency, is akin to ignoring economic fundamentals. Historically, unchecked money printing has led to hyperinflation and economic collapse in countries like Zimbabwe and Venezuela. The United States, with its vibrant economy and strong institutions, might not face such extreme outcomes, but the risk of significant inflation remains elevated if Congress continues reckless deficit spending. The current fiscal outlook is highly unsustainable, and the chickens will eventually come home to roost.

As Dominik Lett and I have recently warned, “If Congress leaves spending corrections to the last minute, legislators may perceive the draconian fiscal consolidation necessary to bring debt under control as less desirable than monetizing the debt. In such a scenario, printing more money might become the easiest or only politically feasible way out.”

A More Responsible Path Forward

The belief that debt doesn’t matter is a luxury belief that disregards the lived experiences of the poor and working class when inflation hits. While espousing MMT as some clever economic theory that surpasses traditional fiscal responsibility may confer intellectual and social status among certain elites, for legislators to blindly follow down the MMT path poses real dangers for those Americans most vulnerable to economic instability. Congress and the executive should prioritize fiscal responsibility and economic policies that enable prosperity for all Americans, not just the privileged few.

The 118th Congress and President Biden have squandered many chances to correct the fiscal course—from agreeing to an irresponsible debt limit deal to allowing executive spending to run amok to authorizing more money for foreign and domestic emergencies with no intention to pay it back. There’s still an opportunity for this Congress and President Biden to begin the important work of stabilizing the US debt and reducing inflationary pressures. The lame-duck period, following the November elections, might be an ideal opportunity to establish a fiscal commission to consider all the options before US legislators and propose a package that will rein in out-of-control spending and debt.

Whether US policymakers intend to follow MMT’s ill-conceived prescriptions or not, the current default option is most likely to lead us down the MMT-proposed path as autopilot spending increases consume more and more government revenue, driving up debt and increasing the likelihood of fiscal dominance in the future, where the Fed is backed into a corner of making monetary decisions to support government finances rather than to control inflation. This is a path to hardship and potential chaos we should avoid.

https://www.cato.org/blog/debt-delusion-why-modern-monetary-theory-luxury-belief

ya

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German BTC sales are ending. Dumbkoffs, selling a hard currency for a fiat currency that can be printed at will.


ya

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Watch the ETF flows

ccp

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suspect BTC will slowly rise from here.
and of course I am always right about the market   :-D

Got to get Trump elected for BTC too now that he is all in!

 :-D :-D :-D

ya

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Every time BTC touches the lower Bollinger Band, there was upside of 100 % or 200 % within 7 months. Its touched it again. Suggests we are going high by the end of 2024.


Body-by-Guinness

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Producer Price Index Unexpectedly Rises
« Reply #3097 on: July 13, 2024, 05:29:52 PM »

ya

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Trump speaking at the largest BTC conf next week. he has said he will back the $ with BTC.


Body-by-Guinness

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If You Spend Like a Drunken Sailor During Times of Full Employment …
« Reply #3099 on: July 15, 2024, 06:32:09 PM »
I hope Trump and Vance harp on stuff like this:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Warns About U.S. Fiscal Policy’s Unsustainable Path

The Beacon / by Craig Eyermann / Jul 15, 2024 at 4:38 PM

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell once again warned earlier this month that the U.S. government’s fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path.

His new warning came at a forum held by the European Central Bank in Sintra, Portugal, on July 2, 2024. The Financial Times’s Martin Arnold reports:

Jay Powell warned that the Biden administration was taking excessive risks by “running a very large deficit at a time when we are at full employment” and said “you can’t run these levels in good economic times for very long”.

It’s not the first time Jerome Powell has issued such a warning. The previous warning was in October 2023. However, unlike then, Powell’s new comments made a distinction: “The level of debt we have is completely sustainable, but the path we are on is unsustainable.”

On July 2, the U.S. government’s total public debt outstanding stood at $34.87 trillion, which is a very big number. If that level of debt is sustainable, as Powell claims, how is the path the U.S. government on unsustainable? How can both things be true at the same time?

The answer to that question has everything to do with interest rates and the U.S. government’s excessive spending.

Because of its excessive spending, the U.S. government is not able to fully retire its debt as it comes due and reduce the total amount. Instead, it has to borrow even more to cover its new spending. It must also roll over debt for money it has previously borrowed and cannot fully pay off. Worse, it is doing all that at today’s interest rates, which are higher than when the debt being rolled over was borrowed.

What makes that problem unsustainable is that excessive federal government spending contributes to inflation. The inflation unleashed by U.S. politicians in recent years forced the Fed to respond by hiking interest rates to get it back under control. Today’s modestly elevated interest rates make today’s excessive spending unsustainable.

If excessive government spending were brought under control, however, it would make the Fed’s job of fighting inflation easier. Interest rates could come down, which, if they did, would make it more possible to sustain such a large national debt. That’s the point Powell was making.

The only problem is that few in Washington DC are interested in reining in the U.S. government’s excessive spending. Until they do, the U.S. government’s fiscal policies will remain unsustainable.

The post Fed Chair Jerome Powell Warns About U.S. Fiscal Policy’s Unsustainable Path appeared first on The Beacon.

https://blog.independent.org/2024/07/15/fed-chair-jerome-powell-warns-about-u-s-fiscal-policys-unsustainable-path/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=fed-chair-jerome-powell-warns-about-u-s-fiscal-policys-unsustainable-path