Author Topic: 2016 Presidential  (Read 471250 times)

Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #850 on: December 15, 2015, 12:07:17 PM »
Carson has called for war to be declared by Congress against ISIS.  Interesting.

For the record, the more I learn about Cruz's weakness on military budget the more concerned I am about this aspect of his candidacy , , ,

ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #851 on: December 15, 2015, 01:15:43 PM »
You mention first Carson, then Cruz. Is this a mistake or intended. 

Declaration of War by Congress?  Carson's lack of understanding scares the hell out of me.

Cruz is against involvement there.
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DougMacG

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #852 on: December 15, 2015, 02:24:19 PM »
"For the record, the more I learn about Cruz's weakness on military budget the more concerned I am about this aspect of his candidacy , , ,"

Please post Bret Stephens column today - The Cruz Imposture - if possible.

ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #853 on: December 15, 2015, 03:19:17 PM »
I would like to see it as well.............I saw it somewhere, but while posting here and getting my ass chewed, and then working on a lawsuit, I forgot where I saw it.

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G M

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #854 on: December 15, 2015, 03:34:00 PM »
"For the record, the more I learn about Cruz's weakness on military budget the more concerned I am about this aspect of his candidacy , , ,"

Please post Bret Stephens column today - The Cruz Imposture - if possible.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/12/14/a-stark-choice-ted-cruzs-jacksonian-americanism-vs-marco-rubios-wilsonian-internationalism/

A Stark Choice: Ted Cruz’s Jacksonian Americanism vs. Marco Rubio’s Wilsonian Internationalism

by STEPHEN K. BANNON & ALEXANDER MARLOW14 Dec 20152,396
I. A Tale of Two Candidates

Here’s a question: During the recent Libya coup—that is, the Obama administration-orchestrated effort to topple Muammar Qaddafi from power in 2011—which prominent American made the following statement:

When an American president says the guy needs to go, you better make sure that it happens because your credibility and your stature in the world is on the line.

Was it a) Hillary Clinton? b) John Kerry? c) Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)2%
?

And the answer is, it was none of them. It was d) Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)79%
, quoted in The Weekly Standardon March 31, 2011. You know, the Senator from Florida. Yes, Rubio is a Republican, not normally thought of as a fan of Obama, but in this instance—and, as we shall see, in many other instances—he eagerly lined up behind Obama.

Lest there be any doubt as to Rubio’s Obamaphile views back in 2011, here’s how the Weekly Standard’s Stephen F. Hayes introduced the above-cited quote:

Senator Marco Rubio offered his full-throated support Wednesday for the U.S. intervention in Libya and called on President Barack Obama to be clear that regime change is the objective of America’s involvement.

Indeed, Rubio went further than just supporting Obama in this particular endeavor. He declared that it was vital that Obama succeed, so as to preserve “credibility”—that is, the credibility that Obama would need to launch future endeavors. As journalist Hayes, clearly a Rubio fan, explained four years ago,

In an interview yesterday afternoon, Rubio said that failing to remove Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, after Obama publicly called for him to go, would have grave consequences for America’s reputation in the region and in the world.

Although Obama, with the help of Rubio’s cheerleading, was successful in removing Qaddafi, as we know, the overall mission in Libya has not been so successful; the country has been in chaos ever since Qaddafi’s death. Indeed, it’s fair to say that the 2012 assassination of Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans in Benghazi is the direct result of the Obama-Rubio intervention.

So why would Rubio be such a strong supporter of Obama on a key foreign-policy issue? That’s a good question, especially since Rubio is now running for president on a mostly anti-Obama platform.

So yes, by all means, let’s drill down on the question of how Rubio can support Obama so much on critical policy, even as he opposes him politically. We can ask: How does Rubio, in his own mind, make sense of that split?

The answer comes from a deep ideological current in American foreign policy, of which Rubio is a vital part. And this ideological current, as we shall see, elevates bipartisanship to near fetish-like status. Moreover, this current oftentimes seeks to subordinate, even ignore, America’s national interest—in favor, we might say, of abstract and arcane intellectual ideals. We will detail this ideology in Section II.

But first, another quote-quiz. Who said this, on December 5, about ISIS?

We will utterly destroy ISIS. We won’t weaken them. We won’t degrade them. We will utterly destroy them. We will carpet bomb them into oblivion. . . . We will do everything necessary so that every militant on the face of the earth will know if you go and join ISIS, if you wage jihad and declare war on America, you are signing your death warrant.

Who said that? Was it a) Donald Trump? Or b) the head of the Air Force’s Strategic Air Command? Or c) Bill O’Reilly, or some other tough-talker on Fox News?

Nope, it was d) Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)97%
, campaigning in Des Moines, Iowa.

Thus we can see the contrast: While Rubio was talking about supporting Obama on a complicated mission that seemed—and seems—dubious to most Americans, Cruz was saying something much simpler: Kill the bad guys.

Indeed, Cruz is quite capable of expressing himself in such blunt terms. Yet, as we know, he is no simpleton: Once a national-champion debater, he went to Princeton and Harvard, and law-clerked for the Chief Justice of the United States, William Rehnquist. So his simple words represent a great deal of complicated thought; he, too, can cite a distinct political tradition, which we will come to in Section III.

So yes, we can marvel at the difference between Rubio and Cruz, even as we note their similarities: Both are Cuban-American first-term senators from the Sunbelt, both are 44 years old, and both are smart men. Indeed, both are uniquely articulate advocates for their very divergent foreign-policy traditions.

Rubio, as we shall see in the next section, is a passionate and devoted exponent of the well-established foreign-policy school known as Wilsonianism, which traces its origins back to our 28th President, Woodrow Wilson, who served from 1913 to 1921.

And Cruz, as we shall see in the third section, is an equally passionate and devoted exponent of a much less well-known foreign-policy school, Jacksonianism, which can be linked to our 7th President, Andrew Jackson, who served from 1829 to 1837.

The differences between the two men, Rubio and Cruz, are important, and they deserve our close attention; they speak volumes about the difference in the way they would conduct foreign policy in the White House.

 

II The Wilsonian Tradition

When we say that Rubio is a Wilsonian, we are simply noting that he has chosen to identify himself with a tradition that emphasizes the high-minded but forceful application of American power around the world, often aimed at advancing democracy and human rights. Wilson was a Democrat and a progressive, but at the same time, he was nothing like, say, George McGovern; McGovern was virtually a pacifist. No, Wilson was not a dove at all—he was perfectly willing to use American military power to achieve his idealistic goals.

Yet Wilson, nevertheless, was an idealist. The son of a Presbyterian minister, he was a brilliant Ph.D. student, then a professor at Princeton, then president of Princeton University. And after a brief stopover as governor of New Jersey, he was elected president of the United States in 1912.

In the White House, Wilson set about improving the world. He launched a series of armed interventions in Latin America and the Caribbean; as he declared in 1913, “I am going to teach the South American republics to elect good men.” That turned out to be an impossible mission, but his supporters admired and revered him for his devotion to duty as he saw it—even as critics derided him as a messianic zealot.

Yet the signature aspect of Wilson’s presidency, and of Wilsonianism as we know it today, was a seeming twist on the use of American power: We should use force, but we should not cheer for it, nor wave the flag on its behalf. And that’s what distinguishes Wilsonianism from plain old patriotic nationalism; that’s what makes it so counter-intuitive to Americans. Indeed, this element of Wilsonian policy was, and is, deeply confusing to the average American. Nevertheless, for nearly a century now, leading American intellectuals have loved it—perhaps, in its disdain for traditional patriotic trappings, because it is so different from conventional thinking.

Indeed, we can observe that Wilsonianism, shorn of traditional patriotism, even during wartime, is deeply appealing to elites, here and around the world. That is, the class that is normally embarrassed by patriotic displays usually loves Wilsonianism—because it seems to be higher, more cerebral, more intellectual. Without a doubt, Wilsonianism has snob-appeal.

Yet the yawning gap between elite Wilsonianism and mass-appeal patriotism can make Wilsonianism problematic politically.

The ordinary American, for example, might think that it’s a good idea for the US to win its wars and that it’s an equally good idea to rally ‘round the flag in wartime. Yet Wilsonians tend to have a different view. Back in 1917, President Wilson offered this curious articulation of US war aims in World War One: Yes, America should fight against the Kaiser, and yes, the goal was a military triumph—but the ultimate goal, Wilson told Congress and the country, was “peace without victory.” In other words, American doughboys should fight and die in France, but they shouldn’t savor the patriotic and nationalistic pleasures of such victory.

Yes, you read that right: Wilson wanted to win, but he didn’t want Americans to feel triumphant. He felt that excessive nationalism here in the US would make it harder to build the post-war multilateral peace that he hoped to achieve with the League of Nations, the forerunner to the United Nations.

Wilson’s vision was noble, many thought. And the president himself was astonishingly articulate and erudite. Moreover, he was acutely conscious of doing the right thing, as he saw it. He once said, “Tell me what is right and I will fight for it.” But of course, most of the time, Wilson already knew what was right, or at least he thought he did. And that’s one more reason why his adherents love him: To this day, he epitomizes the I’d-rather-be-right-than-popular spirit that animates many intellectuals.

And so, in the minds of his brainy supporters, it didn’t really matter that the average American didn’t quite get Wilsonianism; indeed, public confusion about Wilsonianism was something of a badge of honor—that is, proof that the Wilsonians were a higher species than mere Americans and their “boorish” values and folkways.

And yet because Wilsonianism was so difficult for the masses to comprehend, it wasn’t particularly popular. As noted here at Breitbart, Wilson’s idealistic vision foundered on the rocks of reality; in the 1918 midterm elections, just days before the Allied victory in the Great War, the opposition Republicans won the Congress, turning out Wilson’s Democrats. And in 1919-20, the roof caved in on the Wilson administration and its grand plans for a new architecture of international organizations.

Yet even so, Wilsonianism has been a strong strain of foreign-policy thinking ever since; the elites seem perpetually entranced by the idea that they are leading America on some grand national mission, the full complexity of which only they can understand.

Nevertheless, even if the details of Wilsonianism are hard to understand, the broad outlines of the doctrine easily lend themselves to sweeping statement. President John F. Kennedy, for example, was an unabashed fan of his predecessor; his 1961 Inaugural address was ringingly Wilsonian, as when he famously declared,

We shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.

Kennedy’s warmed-over Wilsonianism quickly ran into difficulty in Vietnam, but even so, everybody knows JFK’s famous speech.

Meanwhile, over the last half-century, old-style Wilsonianism has easily blended with a newer dogma, “neoconservatism.”

The neoconservatives, too, are eager to use military force around the world, and they, too, tend to express their policy objectives in non-nationalistic terms. To the neocons, the key issue isn’t that America should win, it’s that America should be right.

And so it is right, for example, that America should advance democracy and freedom around the world. Yet, as we have seen, this emphasis on changing the hearts and minds of foreigners—that is, getting them to embrace democracy and freedom—is far more difficult than merely winning a war. If the goal is simply to kill the other guy, the US military can do that. But if the goal is to transform the thinking of the other guy, well, that’s not what they teach at West Point.

Yet once again, the neoconservatives tend to see American power in abstract terms that oftentimes skip over practical difficulties, including the matter of costs. And interestingly, not all neoconservatives are, in fact, conservative.

For example, in 1996, Bill Clinton’s future Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, challenged then-General Colin Powell to answer her question about the looming commitment of US ground troops, simply for the purpose of helping to liberate Muslims in Kosovo and the Balkans. “What’s the point of having this superb military you’re always talking about,” she asked Powell, “if we can’t use it?” In his memoir, Powell wrote that when he heard Albright’s words, he feared that he was going to have an “aneurysm”; “American GIs,” he added, “are not toy soldiers to be moved around on some global game board.”

Yes, Powell, who served two combat tours in Vietnam, had strong feelings about civilians who would over-use US troops in willy-nilly missions. In his mind, the only valid reason for using the US military was to protect the national interest—and he did not see the US national interest at risk in the former Yugoslavia. But Albright and her boss, President Bill Clinton, saw things differently; to them, helping the Muslims in Southern Europe was a wonderful idea.

Interestingly, back then, in the mid-90s, Albright and Clinton had the strong support of many prominent neoconservatives, including Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)36%
, the editorial writers at The Wall Street Journal, and William Kristol, publisher of The Weekly Standard—the publication that would later admiringly extoll Marco Rubio.

Again, thinking back to the Clinton administration’s Balkan intervention, we are reminded that Wilsonian neoconservatism typically transcends party, as well as patriotism. That is, Wilsonian goals—starting with saving the world—are seen as larger than any mere parochial concern.

So Bill Clinton, the former McGovernite, who actively avoided the draft during the Vietnam era, sprouted into a Wilsonian as president; one could even say he was sort of a neoconservative. In fact, one of the strengths of Wilsonian neoconservatism is that it has a left wing, as well as a right wing. So Bill Clinton was a left-wing neocon, and his successor in the White House, George W. Bush, was a right-wing neocon.

And of course, Bush, who fused his right-wing Wilsonianism with Christian zeal, was infinitely more energetic and ambitious for his ideas than Clinton had been.

Indeed, after 9/11, Bush seemed to think he had a God-given chance to remake the world. And so, as a savvy politician, he was willing to play somewhat to nationalist passions in the wake of the attacks on America; yet ultimately, his Wilsonianism got the best of him. And as a result, he himself chose to communicate in the abstract language of Wilsonianism, fortified with his own born-again Christian theology.

So, on September 17, 2001, Bush assured Americans that “Islam is peace.” Those words must have been confusing to ordinary Americans, who knew that, just six days earlier, Islamic radicals had killed 3,000 of their fellow citizens.

So as a result, as was the case with Wilson nearly a century before, Bush was perfectly willing to send Americans to fight and die for fuzzy abstractions. We might note, in contrast, that during World War Two, Admiral Halsey had told his warriors in the Pacific, “Kill Japs, kill Japs, kill more Japs”; those were not politically correct words, but they encouraged our fighting men to kill, and thus defeat, the enemy. On the other hand, Bush was making the mission in Iraq and Afghanistan much harder: The mission was never just to kill the enemy; instead, it was to win the enemy over to our way of thinking.

As Bush said in his second inaugural address in 2005, it wasn’t enough for America militarily to defeat the terrorists; instead, we had to bring the terrorists, or at least their societies, around to our point of view. As the re-elected president said:

The survival of liberty in our land increasingly depends on the success of liberty in other lands. The best hope for peace in our world is the expansion of freedom in all the world.

In other words, Bush was setting a high, even impossible, standard. Our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan couldn’t just kill bad guys; instead, they had to fight to expand freedom. So US warriors, trained in the art of kinetic warfare, had, instead, to become warriors for polemic ideology. We can recall that neoconservative intellectuals, well versed in the fine points of argumentation, adored Bush’s message—although the average American still simply scratched his or her head.

Indeed, at the time, back in 2005, Peggy Noonan spoke for many when she published an opinion piece, bluntly titled, “Way Too Much God.” If Noonan, a devout Catholic and one of the more visible champions of religion in the public square, thought that Bush had gotten carried away—well, she undoubtedly spoke for most Americans. Here’s how she put it:

The administration’s approach to history is at odds with what has been described by a communications adviser to the president as the “reality-based community.” A dumb phrase, but not a dumb thought: He meant that the administration sees history as dynamic and changeable, not static and impervious to redirection or improvement. That is the Bush administration way, and it happens to be realistic: History is dynamic and changeable, not static and impervious to redirection or improvement. . . . On the other hand, some things are constant, such as human imperfection, injustice, misery and bad government. This world is not heaven.

No, the world is not heaven. And in fact, it’s heresy to think that this world can be made perfect. But Bush, suffering from what Noonan called “mission inebriation”—her play on “mission creep”—had lost his once-sound perspective.

Thus the American people felt they had no choice but to restrain Bush’s remake-the-world impulses at the ballot box. And so in the 2006 midterm elections, voters put the Democrats back in charge of the House and Senate, and in 2008, they gave the Democrats another big victory in Congress, as well as dramatically awarding the White House to Barack Obama. With the benefit of hindsight, we might say that the voters made a mistake with Obama, but at the time, in their defense, Obama was an unknown, and Bush—and his anointed would-be successor, John McCain—were all too well known.

So George W. Bush’s right-wing Wilsonianism, or neoconservatism—like Woodrow Wilson’s left-wing Wilsonianism nine decades earlier—was soundly rejected at the polls.

Yet, as Obama has proven to be such a huge failure, we can observe that Bush 43 has made something of a comeback. Indeed, in contrast to the foreign-policy mess that we have now, even Bush’s neocon Wilsonianism has started to look pretty good.

In fact, given that the neocons, as a group, are not only highly academically credentialed, but also wealthy, we can see why an ambitious fellow such as Rubio would seek to come climbing onto their bandwagon.

So Rubio might think that he has chosen well. In embracing Wilsonian neoconservatism, he instantly found his speeches lauded by neocon pundits, and his campaign coffers filled by neocon donors—so what’s not to like?

As a result, Rubio was soon positioned as the Great Neocon Hope for the next presidential election. On October 6, 2014, National Review’s Eliana Johnson published an important piece, entitled, “The Neocons Return: Meet their 2016 candidate, Marco Rubio.” And there, big as life, was a picture of Rubio. As Johnson wrote,

Since his election four years ago, the first-term senator has consistently articulated a robust internationalist position closest to that of George W. Bush.

She added:

Rubio’s views are strikingly similar to those that guided George W. Bush as he began navigating the post-9/11 world.

So of course, Rubio supported Obama and Hillary on Libya and Syria. Wilson, too, as well as Bush 43, would have done no less.

Yet we can observe that one of the problems of Wilsonianism/neoconservatism is that in its ideological enthusiasm for remaking the world, it tends to be oblivious to such “small” issues as homeland security and border security. That is, in the minds of the Wilsonians, we should think macro, not micro. Up there in the Olympian heights, the best and the brightest should think about solving the world’s problems, not just tending to America’s little garden.

So yes, in the big-thinking minds of the Wilsonians, traditional American nationalism must yield to high-brow internationalism. After all, the thought-process seems to be, how can one let oneself get lost in the weeds of mere national self-interest, when the fate of the world is at stake?

Thus we come to a vital tool in the Wilsonian “arsenal”: immigration.

To the Wilsonian neocons, immigration to the US is indeed crucial. That is, if the issue is saving the world—and it always is—then part of the save-the-world plan means accommodating, and welcoming, refugee flows.

Yes, refugees from Somalia, Syria, anywhere—they all must come here, so that the US can “show leadership.” That is, we must take immigrants by the thousands, even millions, as a way of pointing other countries, as well, to the virtuous path. And in this way, the Wilsonian thinking goes, America will save the world.

Thus it should come as no surprise that National Review’s Johnson reports that one of Rubio’s mentors is former Bush 43 national-security adviser Stephen Hadley. In the White House, Hadley was a champion of open borders, and just recently, he signed a letter with 19 other foreign policy savants, from both parties, calling for the US to take in Syrian refugees.

Hadley and his fellow Wilsonians seem unable to come to grips with the nagging reality that Uncle Sam does a relentlessly poor job at “vetting.” As The New York Times reported on Saturday, Tafsheen Malik, one-half of the San Bernardino shooting couple, was open about her Islamic zealotry on social media. Yet even so, she passed no fewer than three “background checks.” Most likely, Hadley & Co. don’t really care about background checks: Yes, there will be some tragedies inflicted on Americans as a result of mass immigration, but the internationalist foreign-policy experts see a “greater good” that transcends mere Americans and their petty preoccupation with not getting shot.

In addition, the Wilsonians, always seeking to advance their doctrine of remaking the world, tend to have another troublesome blind spot: To them, concerns over national character and identity are just so much benighted “oldthink.”

That is, as a matter of ideology, the neoconservatives just can’t bring themselves to acknowledge that one culture is different from another culture, and thus, maybe, they shouldn’t be blended together suddenly, as happens with a huge refugee influx. Indeed, that happens to be common sense to traditional conservatives, but to the neoconservatives, well, such thinking is not allowed.

Here we might pause to note that such “post-nationalist” thinking is one reason why the Wilsonian neoconservatives tend to retain substantial support from the political left; as noted, there are left-neocons, as well as right-neocons.

Many progressives, in other words, admire the Wilsonians for their willingness to forsake the normal trappings of conservatism, such as national security and national sovereignty. In the minds of liberals, if the Wilsonians are willing to abandon patriotism and the the preservation of national identity, then they can’t be all bad.

And that’s a further reason why open borders is such a key element of neoconservative thinking: It unites the parties.

We might recall that George W. Bush was a champion of “comprehensive immigration reform,” aka, “amnesty.” Today, leading neocons, including McCain and his senatorial colleague, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)38%
 of South Carolina, are staunch supporters not only of expanded refugee programs, but also of “comprehensive immigration reform,” aka, “amnesty.”

And that’s why critics have summed up neocon policy as, “Invade the world/ Invite the world.”

But of course, the neocons would never let a low variable such as public opinion get in the way of their grand plan.

And so, in keeping with state-of-the-art Wilsonian thinking, back in 2013, Marco Rubio was a strong supporter of the “Gang of Eight” immigration reform, alongside such prominent Democrats as Sen. Chuck Schumer.

And although Rubio has supposedly backed off from the idea over the last two years, asBreitbart’s Julia Hahn has noted, the Florida Senator continues to push Gang of Eight talking points. Indeed, it’s perfectly fair to say that, were he to be elected president, he would resume the push for “comprehensive immigration reform,” aka, “amnesty.”

Indeed, Rubio has never stopped seeking to advance Wilsonian causes. Here, for example, is Rubio looking for new places to give away foreign aid money, in a speech to the liberal Brookings Institution on April 25, 2012:

In every region of the world, we should always search for ways to use U.S. aid and humanitarian assistance to strengthen our influence, the effectiveness of our leadership, and the service of our interests and ideals.

And just two months later, in June 2012, Rubio expressed his strong support for Obama’s Syria policy, which was indeed a half-hearted attempt to replicate the Libya coup. In his favorite publication, The Wall Street Journal, under the bold headline, “Assad’s Fall Is In America’s Interests,” Rubio wrote,

Empowering and supporting Syria’s opposition today will give us our best chance of influencing it tomorrow, to ensure that revenge killings are rare in a post-Assad Syria and that a new government follows a moderate foreign policy.

Of course, some have said that the Wilsonians are now biting off more than they can chew. One observer here at Breitbart has noted that the Wilsonians don’t seem disciplined when it comes to limiting American commitments. In other words, is it really possible that the US, with about 21 percent of the world’s economic output, and with less than five percent of the world’s population, can really do it all? The Breitbart author mocked the left-Wilsonians of the Obama administration for their attempted five-way containment:

So there we have it: the Quintuple Containment: The US seeking to contain Russia, China, Iran, terror, and the equally dreaded threat of climate change.

We might note that the right-Wilsonians of the Republican Party are more limited in their ambitions; they mostly disdain “climate change.” So for them, America need undertake only a quadruple containment, albeit with more military force applied to each of the remaining four objectives.

And yet we would do well to remember that Wilsonians of both stripes, right and left, put a huge premium on bipartisanship—so who can say for sure that Republican neocons, after all, wouldn’t yet be sucked into a deal on that fifth “threat,” namely “climate change”?

Again, we must remember that bipartisanship is a siren song to Wilsonians. That’s one reason why, for example, Sen. Joe Lieberman, Democrat of Connecticut, was such a hero to Republicans. Toward the end of his career, Lieberman was really a “DINO”—Democrat In Name Only—yet even so, Wilsonian neocon Republicans, hungering always for bipartisan cred, continued to trumpet Lieberman as a D.

Thus, because bipartisanship is so important to the neoconservatives, one can never say that Republican Wilsonians wouldn’t be interested, after all, in a “climate change” deal if they thought it would bring in Democratic support on other policy objectives. And by the same token, Democratic Wilsonians, who are totally obsessed with “climate change,” might find themselves supporting wars they wouldn’t otherwise support—if it could mean “building bridges” with Republican Wilsonians on stopping CO2.

Indeed, such bridge-building was the subtext of a remarkable joint opinion piece in the December 9 Politico, co-signed by Danielle Pletka, a neoconservative at the American Enterprise Institute, and Brian Katulis, a liberal at the Center for American Progress. In the piece, Pletka and Katulis, good Wilsonians both, lamented the “worrisome bipartisan crisis of U.S. leadership in the world.” And so the two, one on the left, one on the right, proposed to fix that policy gap, with a plan for collaborative action, starting with the US taking in more—many more—refugees. As Pletka and Katulis wrote, in words that must be cheering to the next Tafsheen Malik who wishes to come here and kill Americans,

Calls to close America’s doors to refugees risk undermining who we are as a nation. Instead of slipping into fearful isolationism, Republicans and Democrats should dedicate their efforts to enhancing the background checks on refugees fleeing conflict. This is eminently doable, and there is ample room for the Obama administration to negotiate a reliable system with Congressional leaders. At minimum, we should strive to achieve the Obama administration’s target goal of admitting 10,000 refugees from Syria in the next fiscal year.

And then, Pletka and Katulis added the usual ringing Wilsonian rhetoric:

Why do it? Because we are the richest and freest country in the world. If we lack the moral fortitude to dedicate resources to screen and admit those fleeing the horror of war, we cannot ask other countries to do the same.

That’s Wilsonianism for you: The national interest must come in second to the international interest. And out of that fusion, left and right, it’s not hard to see that the left-Wilsonians could talk the right-Wilsonians into a deal on “climate change.” And so both kinds of Wilsonians would be pulling in the same harness, leading America to oppose all the world’s bad guys and solve all the world’s problems.

 

III. The Jacksonian Tradition

But of course, not everyone in America is a Wilsonian. There are other traditions, too, in US foreign policy. Two other traditions are Jeffersonian and Hamiltonianism. We can look quickly at both:

The Jeffersonian tradition, of course, is named after Thomas Jefferson, our Third President. It is, in a word, liberal: George McGovern, whom we met earlier, qualifies as a Jeffersonian. To be sure, an historical purist might say that the real Jefferson, in the White House, wasn’t so liberal; after all, he started West Point, defeated the Barbary Pirates, and doubled the size of the US with the Louisiana Purchase. And yet even so, his writings—mostly from the period before he became president—have deeply inspired liberals, libertarians, and other peaceniks. Today, one might be tempted to think of Obama as being in this category, although it would seem, perhaps, that he is too quick to order drone strikes to be a true Jeffersonian. So we might count Obama as a diffident and uncertain Wilsonian; he might seem hesitant and incompetent, although in the end, he is perfectly willing to kill to achieve his policy ends.

As for the Hamiltonian tradition, it comes to us from Alexander Hamilton, our first treasury secretary. The Hamiltonians were, and are, commerce-minded. So when President Coolidge said, “The business of America is business,” that was a great statement of the Hamiltonian credo. A Hamiltonian today, for example, would be strongly in favor of lower taxes, and would also would likely support the Ex-Im Bank. Yet even as Hamiltonianism enjoys a revival on, of all places, Broadway, it’s easy for critics to make fun of “money-grubbing” Hamiltonians. And so while Hamiltonianism has arguably been the default position of the United States throughout its history, it is usually submerged behind one of the other two traditions, Wilsonianism and Jeffersonianism.

So having identified three traditions—Wilsonianism, Jeffersonianism, and Hamiltonianism—we can now espy a fourth, Jacksonianism. If the first category, Wilsonianism, seems best to describe Marco Rubio, it’s this fourth category, Jacksonianism, that seems best to describe Ted Cruz.

So what is Jacksonianism? Although the impulse goes back centuries, the name itself traces only to 1999, when political scientist Walter Russell Mead laid it out in a 13,000-word article in The National Interest. Mead, at the time a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, outlined this fourth tradition, “a warrior tradition,” in honor of Andrew Jackson, our Seventh President, who served in the White House from 1829 to 1837.

Jackson was Scots-Irish, a people whom Mead accurately described as “hardy and warlike,” toughened by life on the frontier. Thus we might say that Jacksonianism is all about ferocity in war.

Just as Jackson himself gained personal power in the early 19th century, so did his “ism,” because, frankly, Jacksonianism is useful in winning wars. And we have had lots of wars that we had to win.

To illustrate the Jacksonian approach to war-fighting, Mead recalled a moment in World War Two in which US armed forces inflicted staggering civilian casualties on Japan—and this was before the A-bomb. As Mead notes, “In the last five months of World War II, American bombing raids claimed the lives of more than 900,000 Japanese civilians.” He zeroes in on one particular date:

On one night, that of March 9-10, 1945, 234 Superfortresses dropped 1,167 tons of incendiary bombs over downtown Tokyo; 83,793 Japanese bodies were found in the charred remains—a number greater than the 80,942 combat fatalities that the United States sustained in the Korean and Vietnam Wars combined.

We can look back and ask: Were we too tough on the Japanese? And that’s a question that Jeffersonians, or Hamiltonians, or even Wilsonians, might ask—but not the Jacksonians. The Jacksonians weren’t the least bit apologetic; in their tough martial worldview, the Japanese needed killin’, and that was all there was to it. Our 34th President, Harry Truman, of Independence, Mo., the man who dropped the A-bomb on Japan, was a Jacksonian. And so it might not be a surprise that Truman was once the Presiding Judge (the equivalent of county executive) of Jackson County, Mo.—which was named, of course, after Andrew Jackson.

In his essay, Mead was moved to observe that this militarily tough tradition simply could not be ignored:

The American war record should make us think. An observer who thinks of American foreign policy only in terms of the commercial realism of the Hamiltonians, the crusading moralism of Wilsonian transcendentalists, and the supple pacifism of the principled but slippery Jeffersonians would be at a loss to account for American ruthlessness at war.

Indeed, surveying Andrew Jackson’s war record, we can see that he left a large impression in US history. Old Hickory, as he was called, was famously brave, famously effective, and famously ferocious—beating Indians and the British, both. His victory at the Battle of New Orleans in 1815 was the greatest American victory in The War of 1812. And a century-and-a-half later, it was still being celebrated; in 1958, the country & western singer Johnny Horton released a Top-40 pop song about the battle.

So yes, even though Jackson, unlike Wilson, was neither a scholar nor a speechmaker, he nevertheless created a tradition. As Mead noted,

Once wars begin, a significant element of American public opinion supports waging them at the highest possible level of intensity. The devastating tactics of the wars against the Indians, General Sherman’s campaign of 1864-65, and the unprecedented aerial bombardments of World War II were all broadly popular in the United States. During both the Korean and Vietnam Wars, presidents came under intense pressure, not only from military leaders but also from public opinion, to hit the enemy with all available force in all available places.

And yet still, if the Jacksonian tradition is less known, well, there’s a reason for that—the Jacksonians aren’t writers:

A principal explanation of why Jacksonian politics are so poorly understood is that Jacksonianism is less an intellectual or political movement than an expression of the social, cultural and religious values of a large portion of the American public. And it is doubly obscure because it happens to be rooted in one of the portions of the public least represented in the media and the professoriat. Jacksonian America is a folk community with a strong sense of common values and common destiny; though periodically led by intellectually brilliant men—like Andrew Jackson himself—it is neither an ideology nor a self-conscious movement with a clear historical direction or political table of organization.

So Mead, himself from South Carolina, which was also Jackson’s home state, took it upon himself to identify the key elements of the “Jacksonian Code”: These were, honor, self-reliance, and military meritocracy. As Mead put it, Jacksonians enjoy “a love affair with weapons.” And oh yes, he concludes, “Finally, courage is the crowning and indispensable part of the Code.”

So we can see, clearly, that Jacksonianism is a good deal different from Wilsonianism; to quote Mead again:

Jacksonian patriotism is not a doctrine but an emotion, like love of one’s family. The nation is an extension of the family. Members of the American folk are bound together by history, culture and a common morality.

In other words, Jacksonianism, based on the ties that bind kith and kin, is light-years away from the austere abstractions of Wilsonianism.

Needless to say, the Jacksonian spirit is big in in places such as Houston—which happens to be Ted Cruz’s hometown.

So let’s talk more about Cruz. Yes, Cruz is an Ivy Leaguer—he went to Princeton, in fact, the same as Wilson—but then, not every Ivy Leaguer comes away with Ivy League values; we might note that Mead went to Yale, and yet he freely volunteers in his National Interest essay that he is a fan of the Jacksonians. Why? Because, as he says, it’s better to win wars than lose them. And Jacksonians, in their single-minded focus on killing the enemy, are good at winning.

And Cruz, too, has that same keep-it-simple spirit. Whereas the Wilsonians are all about trying to master the nuances of the Middle East—never mind that they have never come close to doing so—the Jacksonians see things in starker, and sharper, terms. As Cruz says of Syria,

Instead of getting in the middle of a civil war in Syria, where we don’t have a dog in the fight, our focus should be on killing ISIS.

Yes, when Cruz argues for killing ISIS, he is talking like a Jacksonian.

Let others worry about democracy and human rights and all that jazz; Cruz’s view is, if they need to killed, then they need to be killed. Otherwise, let’s not worry about them.

Indeed, Cruz doesn’t seem the least bit interested in bringing “democracy” to such benighted countries as Iraq or Syria. The Texan is obviously passionate about constitutional democracy for Americans, and for others who yearn for it, but unlike, say, Bush 43, he doesn’t seek to impose “democracy” on hostile peoples at gunpoint.

 

IV The Wilsonian vs. Jacksonian Tradition in 2016

So we can see the gap between Rubio and the Wilsonians, and Cruz and the Jacksonians. On the one side, Rubio is channeling neoconservatism; on the other side, Cruz is channeling Jacksonian Americanism.

To look at the matter more deeply, we might even say that the Wilsonian neoconservatives have a stubborn belief in the perfectibility of man, whereas, by contrast, the Jacksonians have the more orthodox Christian view: We live in a fallen world, and, as the philosophers say, out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made.

Of course, other factors, too, are likely at play. For example, Marco Rubio’s campaign seems to be extraordinarily well-funded; he won the endorsement, for instance, of Paul Singer, the New York City-based billionaire who combines support for gay marriage, open borders, and Israel into one juicy check-writing package.

To be sure, Rubio is free to seek out support wherever he can, but others are equally free to criticize; in October, Donald Trump tweeted out a jeering reference to Rubio’s relationship to another one of the Republican Party’s biggest donors:

Sheldon Adelson is looking to give big dollars to Rubio because he feels he can mold him into his perfect little puppet. I agree!

Of course, Rubio also has his ardent supporters. The Wall Street Journal editorial page, for example, is solidly in his corner. Yes, that page has made quite an ideological odyssey over the last few decades; in the 70s and 80s, when many believe it was at the height of its influence, the Journal edit page was virtually single-minded in its support for supply-side economics. Yet more recently, while still supporting free markets, it has become preoccupied with neoconservative foreign policy—which is great news for a neocon such as Rubio. Yet others have noticed this shift as well, and so the Journal’s impact has been diminished. As Cruz himself said recently, the Journal should change its name to “The Marco Rubio for President Newspaper.”

In fact, even outside of the Journal, the split between Rubio and Cruz has become evident. Under the headline, “Marco Rubio Gets Benghazi’d By Ted Cruz,” TalkingPointsMemo quoted Cruz as saying, “Senator Rubio emphatically supported Hillary Clinton in toppling [Muammar] Qaddafi in Libya. I think that made no sense.” Cruz added, “The terrorist attack that occurred in Benghazi was a direct result of that massive foreign policy blunder.”

Moreover, Cruz opened up on the Wilsonian neocons:

If you look at President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton and for that matter some of the more aggressive Washington neocons, they have consistently mis-perceived the threat of radical Islamic terrorism and have advocated military adventurism that has had the effect of benefiting radical Islamic terrorists.

As the late Sen. Strom Thurmond liked to say, that puts the hay down where the horse can get it.

Yet Cruz had more to say on the topic. As the Texan told Breitbart’s Matthew Boyle on December 11:

On foreign policy, Sen. Rubio’s foreign policy judgments have been consistently wrong. When Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton made the decision to intervene in Libya, to topple Qaddafi, Sen. Rubio chose once again to stand with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. … And the result of that was that Libya was handed over to radical Islamic terrorists and is now a chaotic war zone of battling Islamists. And that is much, much worse for U.S. national security. The tragedy at Benghazi, four Americans murdered including the first American ambassador to be killed in the line of duty since the 1970s under Jimmy Carter, the tragedy of Benghazi was the direct result of the failed foreign policy in Libya that was championed by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and supported by Marco Rubio.

To be sure, Rubio has his responses to Cruz, but the plain fact remains: Rubio supported Obama and Clinton on Libya. Moreover, Rubio supported Obama and Clinton on Syria, too. That’s what Wilsonians do: They support whoever is in charge, regardless of party, if the issue is the use of force to “do good” overseas.

And so, for example, we can fully expect that left-Wilsonians—for example, Brian Katulis, whom we cited earlier, in league with the right-Wilsonian Danielle Pletka—would happily support a President Rubio on some new round of foreign-policy adventurism. And as we already know, Katulis-type Democrats stand ready to support a President Rubio in the cause of opening up America’s border to new immigrants—including, one supposes, the next Tafsheen Malik.

So as we have seen, Rubio’s invade-the-world-invite-the-world ideology is perfectly consistent with the Wilsonian tradition.

What remains to be seen, however, is whether or not the Republican Party, which is increasingly enamored of Trump-Cruz-type Jacksonian Americanism, is interested in seeing the elite Wilsonian internationalists regain power—so that they can continue their mission of saving the world.

ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #855 on: December 15, 2015, 07:22:56 PM »
Idiots with the debate.

1. Take out Hassad in Syria and it will be more stable. Try another Libya.

2. Bomb ISIS with only a few Spec Forces on the ground.  Air power does not win wars.

3. Be nice and avoid killing family members. No collateral damage.  Maybe we can also pay them for their losses of their terrorist family members.

4. Have a no fly zone in Syria.  ISIS does not have aircraft. Who are they trying to stop?  This is cold war surrogate parties.

5. Jeb is so desperate, attacking Trump every second. And he started to lie on his stance with immigration. His "anger" looks almost deranged.

6. Audience needs to shut up.

7. Christie now for the No Fly Zone and challenging Russia.  "That is not reckless."

8. No one in the audience realizes that we can stop other countries internet.

9. CNN trying to knock out Trump. 

10. Jeb deranged. Trump lets him have it. I am at 42%, you are at 3%.

11. Trump even smacked down the audience.  :-D  Now he goes after CNN.....every question to others, Trump said this. Trump said that.

12. Say goodbye Carson.



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ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #856 on: December 15, 2015, 07:27:01 PM »
Great line by Cruz.

I will build a wall and I will get Trump to pay for it.

Trump says..........I will do it.


Rubio trying to hide his position on Amnesty. Trying to also claim Cruz was for Amnesty also.
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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #857 on: December 15, 2015, 08:49:02 PM »
Trump: What's a nuclear triad?
I just know nuclear is big. Really big.
What we really need is somebody who knows what he's doing.

The early group got something right and Carson touched on it.
To take down a Caliphate, you take back the land.  Shrink the territory to nothing.

Christy said Rubio has this right.  Rubio had a good night.  Showed a mastery of knowledge on foreign policy.  Too bad for him that Trump and Cruz didn't want to fight each other.

Metadata, all 4 in the early debate seemed to back the security side over alleged privacy.  It was well explained.  As they look at the numbers that a terror nukmber contacted, they don't see names until it goes further and they hit something of interest.  Cruz is pretty much alone over on the Rand Paul side of this.  Rubio answered Cruz that the new legislation doesn't give them any new capability they didn't already have.

Carly was right that the larger question is why didn't they discover the Boston brothers or the San Bern. couple.  It's the algorythm.  We aren't looking at the right things.  Our government lags behind the terrorists.  Need to ask for private sector help.

Trump was Trump, a little subdued.  Sounded petty in his fight with Jeb but nothing worse than usual for both of them.  Trump didn't help or hurt himself, still in first place in nomination race, last in the general.

Cruz still not showing himself to be a national champion debater.  Good but not better than his main competitors.
A couple of times Cruz wouldn't stop talking.  Awkward moments on one in particular.

Carson was good but not enough to catch his fall.  It will be interesting to see if anyone in the polls liked Christy.

Fiorina was good in her way, not enough to move up.  Early group ditto.  Bush, best night yet, won't move up.

Conclusion:   Nothing changed.  All the same dynamics we have discussed govern this race.

Next polls will be roughly same.  Then in January this gets serious.  Trump shows he can win the general or people look for who can.

Still waiting for big gaffes or personal failings discovered.  Not much of that this election other than Hillary.




ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #858 on: December 15, 2015, 08:56:16 PM »
Agreed.

What is funny is that it is easy to see that Trump is totally in  Jeb's head. Jeb just goes nuts and can't think or speak straight, he is so flustered.

Carly was the Snarly Ex Wife much of the time.

You are right that Trump probably did not understand TRIAD.

Take back the land to win, that is correct. But who has the will for Jacksonian warfare. And that is what it will take. Interesting reading the article on Wilsonian and Jacksonian warfare, and then watching the debate. You could see the difference. Though I still think that most of them would start WW III.
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DougMacG

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #859 on: December 15, 2015, 09:16:56 PM »
"What is funny is that it is easy to see that Trump is totally in  Jeb's head. Jeb just goes nuts and can't think or speak straight, he is so flustered."

He just can't believe this (Trump 41, Bush 3) is happening.  Bush was irrelevant. Moderators put him in the middle of it by setting up that fight.  By fighting Trump he gets the automatic reply.  He is, after all, a two term Governor.  Of course, so is Kasich, and Huckabee, and Petaki, and Walker, and Jindal, and Rick Perry.

Rubio says we need more tools to fight terrorism, not less tools.

For the second time, that would be, not fewer tools.

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #860 on: December 15, 2015, 09:30:23 PM »
Trump keeps looking better and better. Nice showing tonight.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #861 on: December 15, 2015, 11:42:37 PM »
My snap impressions:

My understanding is that the significance of the no fly zone is that ASSAD has an airforce that fux badly with the opposition and by so doing is a major factor in creating refugees.  Thought you would know this Pat.  Certainly Carson did  :evil: :-D :lol:

Carson had an interesting play with his call for a declaration of war against ISIS.  I would have thought that Rand would engage with this idea-- hasn't he been calling for Congress to defecate or get off the pot in exactly this way?  I also thought he spoke with good specificity, actually with more specificity than Cruz and the others.  Very much worth noting is that at this moment he is the ONLY candidate other than Rubio who beats Hillary.  This is worthy of reflection!!!

Carly was determined to duck the question about encryption.  In that this is definitely in her wheelhouse this is noteworthy.  Other than that she did fine but viscerally is not appealing but probably would do good work in the right cabinet job.

Agree that Trump did not understand Triad  :roll:  Generally I thought he sounded simplistic but probably did not do himself any harm though I thought Bush dinged him with pointing out that the Kurds are Muslims and using the example of the Muslims in India.  He bitch slapped Rand on the subject of what he meant about "closing some of the interent".    I was VERY glad to see him thoroughly renounce any thoughts of doing a Ross Perot and to speak respectfully of all the other candidates, but then disappointed to see him sort of take it back in the after debate conversation with Chris Cuomo.

I thought Rubio really dinged Cruz on military spending.

As best as I can tell there really isn't much difference between Rubio and Cruz on immigration; as best as I can tell both are willing to go for legalization without citizenship at some point.  Rubio has retrenched on the subject in a way I can live with.    Couldn't tell whether Cruz's defense against Rubio's attack on meta data to the effect that MORE powerful and focused surveillance was enabled was sound or not.   I don't understand why he doesn't claim the benefit of his position-- that even in time of crisis he has not panicked and continues to defend our privacy, our freedom etc.  Regardless, Christie effectively stomped on the two of them as they squabbled by effectively distinguishing debating in the Senate and being an executive having to make decisions when the excrement hits the fan.

I liked the way Christie's opening statement focused on the betrayal (excellent choice of word!  It hints at treason without saying it directly) by Baraq and Hillary.  I gather he is in third in New Hampshire?  A solid showing there could do him good, and I think he has really honed his skills and his personality in the town halls of NH.  IMHO he may surprise some of us here.

Kasich?  Ummm , , , who cares?
« Last Edit: December 16, 2015, 01:18:35 AM by Crafty_Dog »

ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #862 on: December 16, 2015, 06:49:07 AM »
But Syria is against ISIS!!!  So they are our allies!  And the Russians too.

Except in Obama World where the enemy of our enemy is our enemy.

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #863 on: December 16, 2015, 07:02:39 AM »
When Jeb brought up the Kurds on the Trump immigration plan, Trump should have come back with "The Kurds don't want to come here. They want to stay and fight."
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ccp

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #864 on: December 16, 2015, 07:12:23 AM »
Doug writes:

"Conclusion:   Nothing changed.  All the same dynamics we have discussed govern this race."

That is why I didn't even bother watching the debate.  I have seen enough.  We know their strengths and weaknesses.

Bottom line for me is who can beat Hillary. 

The 'Get on Up' movie of James Brown was better than I thought it would be.   I never much cared for his music but he sure could sing and dance.   Much more entertaining than the debate. 

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Re: 2016 Presidential - foreign policy debate
« Reply #865 on: December 16, 2015, 08:47:05 AM »
Right ccp, nothing changed but things start to get clarified for a wider audience.  Seeds are planted that might or might not turn into shifting allegiances later.  Like the recent Cruz surge in Iowa, people gradually become aware of liking or respecting someone but the move in support happens later. 

My guy Rubio did well.  He didn't knock out any GOP contenders or even move himself up but a lot of people are finding him acceptable to be their President, and ready.  It was mysterious how he was so gentle letting the frontrunner off the hook for what he didn't know about nuclear arsenal and strategy.  They all wait for their moment to pounce, but the moment came and instead he held his hand and helped him out.  It means for one thing Rubio is not feeling desperate - like Bush.  He doesn't see it as his job to take him down, just to show himself as ready for the job.  Rubio also seemed taken aback by either classified material slipped out by Cruz or classified material he was not able to use in rebuttal.  On radio, I missed some of the expressions in that moment. 

Either it is too bad that Rand Paul was included, making the foreign policy debate so divided, or it is good that he was, airing out that view and making them answer it.  Hillary is a hawk so this will be a very strange general election to have either two hawks bragging who will be tougher and alienating the 40-50% who don't want us involved anywhere or if we could have a Republican to the left / dove side of her criticizing American foreign interventions.

I love Ted Cruz, a conservative hero to me, but not a President.  It seems to me that he hides his more isolationist tendencies and limited Middle East regional knowledge and foreign policy experience with Trump-like tough talk:  I will utterly destroy them.  I will carpet bomb them.  I will kill them.  I will kill all of them.  I will bomb them over and over, again and again.  I will be the best ISIS bomber the world has ever seen.  But we all know that air power doesn't ever end this and as Bigdog's posts suggests, letting this go on forever with our planes flying over and bombing is a recruiting tool more than an agent of victory.

In that sense too, our open democracy process is recruitment tool for ISIS.  All these people audition on worldwide video to see who can talk the toughest, always about killing them, killing terrorists and killing everyone around them, instead of having a Commander in Chief who already did that and was by now leading the rebuilding effort in the area, opening hospitals and schools like Osama bin Laden used to do.

I don't know about regime change on Assad while we fight ISIS.  The focus first to me has to be to urgently shrink the territory that the ISIS caliphate controls to zero.  Every year we wait is a generation or two the war goes longer IMO.  Assad is an ally of Iran and Russia.  Rather than topple Assad first meaing a fight with Russia and Iran, you contain him for now and take out ISIS first, from all fronts, with all allies, using all means.  Then what?  I don't know, but terror training and export camps aren't going to be allowed to openly operate anywhere on this planet -is the policy.  Refugee camps must go in the re-captured territory, not in Europe and America.  The West can offer humanitarian aid, not American citizenship.  If they are peaceful, then that is who we want re-building and re-populating the area.

Immigration policy is starting to come to a Republican consensus.  Trump won't really send them all back.  Cruz is still tough but wishy washy on details and Rubio is committed to security first and then a long, careful process regarding legalization.  I say, 'e Pluribus Unum'.  If the many aren't coming to be one with us, then they aren't coming.  The pause should have been on all, not just Muslims, and there should be exceptions for highly scrutinized and beneficial to us applicants.  We shut down illegal immigration - for security reasons if nothing else -  and then focus legal immigration on American economic and demographic advantage.  To help us where we need help, not to take what we have.  Building a 500 ft. wall across our southern border doesn't stop the plotting terrorist who has made it to Vancouver or Montreal, or Boston.  'Border security' is far more encompassing than a wall or fence on one side (visitors, overstayed visas, northern border, etc.) but that is the most visible and highest traffic part of it.

Reading Nate Silver's column today, that one frontrunner who dominates the news might only slip if he is ignored by news coverage rather than constantly called out and criticized - so I barely mentioned him.  )

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #866 on: December 16, 2015, 09:29:42 AM »
" It means for one thing Rubio is not feeling desperate - like Bush."

Bush should really bow out and either return all the money  to his investors before he wastes it all.

Or give it to charity.  Why waste it on the MSM for ads and marketing.

Or send me a check  :-)

The Bush's need to wake up and smell the coffee.  
« Last Edit: December 16, 2015, 09:31:40 AM by ccp »

DougMacG

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #867 on: December 16, 2015, 10:46:42 AM »
"Bush should really bow out and either return all the money..."

Agree.  Leave now, leave quietly, leave gracefully.  Spend more time with your family.  And don't endorse anyone.  I think the PAC can change directions anyway it wants.  What Jeb wants right now mostly is for that one guy to not win.  Best way to do that is shrink the field.  Lindsey Graham too, and Santorum, Huckabee.  You each had your time, now you're wasting ours.  Rand Paul wanted to air out his big difference on foreign policy.  He did that, so if the polls still don't move, get out and on with your other campaign.  Fiorina and Carson can stay a couple more debates (affirmative action) and then out before the first votes are cast unless they see a meaningful, upward move.  Christie, get out after NH unless you win it.  Better yet, get out before NH if the writing is already on the wall.  Your time will come.  Christie is also a strong VP possibliity to prosecute the case against Hillary.

I like Bush, but he came out of the gates insulting the base and running against us (while he talks about this other guy insulting people).  And with his last name baggage, he needed to win this by a mile or let it go.  Like Bobby Jindal, Jeb didn't connect, so give it up.

Between Cruz and Rubio, which one can win and remain reasonably popular and effective, getting their agenda passed and implemented - for 8 years.  Maybe neither but put your best bet down. 

Crafty:  "As best as I can tell there really isn't much difference between Rubio and Cruz on immigration; as best as I can tell both are willing to go for legalization without citizenship at some point.  Rubio has retrenched on the subject in a way I can live with.    Couldn't tell whether Cruz's defense against Rubio's attack on meta data to the effect that MORE powerful and focused surveillance was enabled was sound or not."

No one changed sides now but Rubio succeeded in blurring that distinction - since it IS a blurry distinction.  None of them are going to win and hunt down people who have been productively established here for more than a decade.  Might as well admit it now instead of chasing away every Hispanic and Asian American legal vote forever.  Over-promising (threatening) what you won't do anyway costs us the general election later even if it works for you now.  They all need to stay focused on the prize which is not the nomination.  McCain and Romney have that pennant hanging in the trophy case, yet we only see them as losers.

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Morris: Money Doesn't Matter
« Reply #868 on: December 16, 2015, 11:38:32 AM »
Money Doesn't Matter
By DICK MORRIS
Published on TheHill.com on December 15, 2015
Money doesn't matter (much). In this year's Republican nominating race, the standing of the candidates for the presidency is in inverse relationship to the amount of funds they have spent.

The front-runner, Donald Trump, has spent about $250,000 on advertising. The current party runner-up, Ted Cruz, has invested just shy of $1 million. In third place -- a distant third in the New York Times/CBS poll -- is Marco Rubio, who has spent over $14 million on media. And bringing up the rear is Jeb Bush, who has garnered a hearty 5 percent of the vote by spending over $35 million on ads in his campaign and is en route to winning the John Connally Award for amount of money spent per delegate vote at the convention.
 
The lesson is clear, or should be: The importance of money is highly overvalued in a high-profile presidential race, though it is still a deciding factor in down-ballot races like those for senator and governor and is the be-all and end-all for congressional or state legislative races.

The free media coverage of a presidential race simply overwhelms what paid media can bring to a campaign. We see wonderfully produced ads for the likes of Bush and Rubio, only to see the real thing in a debate a few weeks later. This disjuncture is disturbing: The figure conjured in the ads has only the most tenuous relationship with the guy we see at the podium. Who are we to believe, the ads or our own eyes?

Paid media has some specific purposes but is hardly a cure-all for what ails a campaign.

It can provide biographic depth, particularly with a candidate with a moving life story like John McCain or Ben Carson.

It is very useful for hitting an opponent with negatives (as Mitt Romney did to Newt Gingrich and President Obama did to Romney). But, when debates come as frequently as they do in the GOP nominating process, it is easy for a candidate to debunk the accusations and nullify the ad buy, no matter how extensive.

Its greatest use is to rebut opposition attacks and to make the attacker appear untruthful or ruthless as a counter-punch.

So why do candidates spend their entire waking lives raising money if it's not that important?

Money has become a status symbol with the media, a gauge of how seriously one should take a candidacy. For example, Mike Huckabee's inability to raise funds solidified his status as a minor candidate. Likewise with Rick Santorum. This means the winners of the last two Iowa caucuses (Santorum in 2012 and Huckabee in 2008) are way down in the polls in this year's Iowa contest. Why? Their limited fundraising caused the media to marginalize them and focus on Carson -- who raised vast amounts -- instead.

Federal Election Commission filings have become like campaign posters, attesting the strength of a candidacy -- they're show pieces to be paraded about but not actually spent. Cruz first won respectability as a candidate when he out-raised others in the first reporting period (and he continues to out-raise many of his competitors). But Cruz never had to spend the money; having it and displaying it was enough.

So, curiously, the very press that deplores the Citizens United decision and castigates the amount of campaign spending that has followed in its wake perpetuates the myth of the importance of money.

Before voters get to cast their first ballots in the primaries, candidates have to prove their credibility in the money primary and in the debate primary. These winnowing processes -- rather than the decisions of the voters themselves -- spell inclusion or exclusion in these pre-primary rounds.

So having a large bank account is like owning a fancy car or living in a mansion -- a symbol of wealth worth more than the money itself.

ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #869 on: December 16, 2015, 11:42:59 AM »
I don't know people say that Trump can't get Mexico to pay for the wall?

He has gotten the media to pay for his campaign. :-D :-D :-D
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DougMacG

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #870 on: December 16, 2015, 11:53:06 AM »
I don't know people say that Trump can't get Mexico to pay for the wall?

He has gotten the media to pay for his campaign. :-D :-D :-D

That IS funny that the richest guy running hasn't had to spend any money.  Those who think he's an idiot underestimate him.

DT does however have the ability to jet from here to there and back and again in luxury and comfort, anywhere he wants, anytime he wants.  People like Pawlenty, Walker were driving to Iowa; flying to NH, SC etc with staff was a big deal.  Jindal, Santorum and nearly all the rest, same.

Even at home, he lives in the media capital of the world.  Doesn't need to spend a cent to have a media event in the fanciest hotel.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #871 on: December 16, 2015, 12:06:40 PM »
Pat:

When Jeb brought up the Kurds on the Trump immigration plan, Trump should have come back with "The Kurds don't want to come here. They want to stay and fight."

That is both pithy and funny.

OTOH, I'm guessing you would be ripping Dr. Ben a new anus if he did not know what the Nuclear Triad is and if he thought the internet could be shut down and had no problem with Russia forming an axis with Iran, Shiastan Iraq, Assad Syria, and Hezbollah Lebanon.  :evil:

All:

Some additional thoughts:

1) I'm thinking the foreign policy split underlying Rep thought, as exemplified by Rubio and Cruz, needs some serious thought on our part.   In my opinion our side is making a serious error by not making the point that Lindsay Graham made last night.  The anarchy and rise of Islamo Fascism is NOT because of Bush.  It is because Baraq through away what Bush finally achieved with the Surge and undermined Egypt, Libya, and spread guns all over the place to dubious and perfidious recipients at best, and evil mofos at worst.  

Trump plays right into this error with gusto as he says "I was against going into Iraq blah blah".  That's all well and good, but the point I make here needs to be a central point for our side.  Without it we are left with the inadequacies of both Cruz's strategy and Rubio's strategy.

What happens AFTER Cruz carpet bombs Isis-stan?!?  Is Rubio looking to re-do the Surge?  To what end?  With whom?  Will this fly with the American people who understandably at this point properly doubt the competence of our government and the plausibility of such goals in the aftermath of Baraq?

2) Have Trump and Cruz made a deal?  Interesting body language in Trump's back slap of Cruz and Cruz's response.

3) Excellent work being done on this thread with regard to polls.  I'd like to request that these efforts expand their focus to individual match-ups with Hillary.  Without this, the work is incomplete.



« Last Edit: December 16, 2015, 12:14:05 PM by Crafty_Dog »

DDF

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« Reply #872 on: December 16, 2015, 12:17:08 PM »
"Cruz made a claim during an exchange with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio about the new USA Freedom Act, which Cruz supported and Rubio opposed. Cruz said that "nearly 100 percent" of phone numbers can be checked for terror ties under the new program, compared to "20 percent to 30 percent" under earlier Patriot Act provisions."

When Trump gets elected (and he will) . It won't be Hillary nor socialist Sanders.... Trump will choose Cruz in order to pick up Latino and Democratic votes - Even Blacks will vote for Trump because even though they hate Whitey at times, they aren't so stupid as to give their country away...

When Trump and Cruz are in office, we can know they both favor East German information gathering tactics (which....I do too.....as long as the people in office are people that share my way of life).

This.... is what will happen.

DougMacG

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #873 on: December 16, 2015, 12:29:31 PM »
Great post and great questions posed.

" the point that Lindsay Graham made last night.  The anarchy and rise of Islamo Fascism is NOT because of Bush.  It is because Baraq through away what Bush finally achieved with the Surge and undermined Egypt, Libya, and spread guns all over the place to dubious and perfidious recipients at best, and evil mofos at worst. "

For the moment I would add the same goes for the economy for the general election.  Dems blame the Pelosi-Reid collapse and the Obama stagnation on Bush and Republicans and Republicans are too lazy or distracted to go back and set the record straight.

The Republican governing  error was to go along with Democrat policies like CRAp that brought down the economy.  This was government policy failure, not a defect of economic freedom.

If we wrongly concede these two points, we lose.

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #874 on: December 16, 2015, 12:44:46 PM »
Actually I would not have cared whether Carson knew what TRIAD was or not. And I did mention first that I thought Trump did not know what TRIAD was.

As to the Internet, we could shut down overseas ISPs so that people in the US did not have access to them. China does it all the time.  So there are ways to cut off communication that would not affect general use of the Internet.

As to Russia, lI am all in favor of letting Russia do the heavy lifting. We are not going to engage in Jacksonian warfare to stop them, so what the hell?  Ally with Iran, Iraq, etc? You reap what you sow and if you are not going to do what it takes to win, then others will step in and form what alliances are needed.

What I heard in the debate are a bunch of fools who would restart the Cold War and likely start a shooting war with Russia?  Do we need that? Not with our present leadership and not with those who are running and advocating more engagement.

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DougMacG

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #875 on: December 16, 2015, 01:01:58 PM »
The funny thing about the nuclear triad was that DT was on Hugh Hewitt's show many times and Hugh kept warning him that he was going to ask specific questions on weapons numbers and programs that he thinks a Commander in Chief ought to know.  DT wasn't interested and didn't care.  I doubt he doesn't care about hundreds of billions of cost items in his own projects.  He was not damaged because of lowered expectations and how it was handled, but we are going to elect a guy not interested in strategic thinking?

Russia isn't going to do heavy lifting for us.  Watch the ending of that.

I agree with DT on the internet shutdown statement.  I was in technology export.  My biggest project was the rebuilding of Kuwait.  We weren't allowed to sell to enemies of the US as defined by several departments of the federal government.  If it is in our interest to shutdown the internet in Syria, Yemen or wherever and we have the power to do it, do it.

I was also squeemish at the audition for amateur tough talk about who would shoot whom down.  I agree with T (trying not to keep saying his name); that kind of message can be sent more subtly.  Those who talk the toughest might actually do the least or be required to do the most. Like Carly said, first take a few steps that tell people you're serious, missile defense in Poland for example.  Like I said, take out NK and Iran nuclear facilities first.  People see we are under new management without directly threatening Russian planes that are allegedly flying our missions.

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Frank Cagle: Trump’s foes must appeal to supporters
« Reply #876 on: December 16, 2015, 01:30:13 PM »
http://www.knoxnews.com/opinion/columnists/frank-cagle/frank-cagle-trumps-foes-must-appeal-to-supporters-26f33c9e-7cf2-71ed-e053-0100007ffa88-362532971.html?d=mobile

Frank Cagle: Trump’s foes must appeal to supporters

3:00 a.m.
If Donald Trump was a grocer he would throw chickens off the roof of his store, bury a stuntman in the parking lot and threaten to beat the crap out of panhandlers in front of his business.

Old-timers might remember these antics as a few of many from legendary millionaire grocer Cas Walker, a Knoxville city councilman and sometime mayor. The irascible Cas loved attention and had his own reality television show — on daily and featuring people like Dolly Parton, Chet Atkins and the Everly Brothers. He would say anything, usually crude, to attract attention, and people loved him for it. He was also a bully who used his show and his newspaper, the Watchdog, to attack anyone who opposed him. To this day there are people in Knoxville who are big fans and nostalgic for the days when he was a political force in East Tennessee.

Historian and author Bruce Wheeler has written about Walker standing athwart any sign of progress in Knoxville, a constant thorn to the establishment. Whether it was fluoride in the water or expensive sewer lines, Cas was "agin it."


What I don't understand about the Republican establishment these days is that they fail to recognize that Trump uses outrageous statements to garner attention, but he taps into issues of real concern to the American people. But if you want to stop Trump, don't attack him; appeal to the people who support him. Offer sensible solutions to problems he has identified, rather than his half-baked, unrealistic rhetoric.

For example, when the Syrian refugee controversy erupted Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz suggested that maybe we could take only Christian refugees from the Middle East. They were excoriated for the idea. President Barack Obama stood in the Oval Office and said America could not have a religious test for admission and it was un-American. He should know better.

The 1965 immigration reform act, which still governs, has specific criteria for the admission of refugees: people fleeing religious persecution. Who is facing more religious persecution than the Christians in Syria and other areas controlled by ISIS? Beheading, buried alive, machine gunned. Any country has the right to decide who can be admitted and who cannot. Until 1965 Third World immigration was prohibited. There are Christian relief agencies in the Middle East that could help vet refugees facing persecution and help them resettle here.

Did Bush double down, make the case and provide an alternative to Trump's bellicosity? No, he just attacked Trump's idea to stop Muslim immigration temporarily, instead of making the issue his own. Trump's plan? How would that work? Offer anybody getting on the plane a ham sandwich and bar anybody who didn't eat it? His half-baked idea is about as practical as his plan to have Mexico pay for the border wall.

I think a Trump presidency would be a disaster. While he talks a good game, he has no practical way to carry out his promises. Like Cas, he will say anything to grab attention, get a headline and get on television. But his success should be a warning to the political establishment. The American people are fed up with political correctness, and if you do not provide sensible solutions to the issues Trump has raised, don't be surprised when he stand on the podium as the GOP nominee.

ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #877 on: December 16, 2015, 04:29:57 PM »
Here is a thought for everyone.  Scenario is that Trump and Hillary are the nominees.  Hillary agrees with doing a debate.  (She may have a headache and have to cancel, if she even dared to agree with having one.)

Trump to Hillary

1.  You talk about violence against women and rape.  What about Juanita Broderick and Paula Jones? 

2.  I made money by working and building things. How did you make your money?

3.  What has your Foundation really done?

4.  What caused you to fall in Dec 2012 when you were going to have to testify?  How you been out drinking and dancing again like in Columbia?

5.  When Stevens was killed in Bengazi, were you sober enough to take the call?

6.  What happened to all your wrinkles? More botox?

7.  And I thought I was having a "bad hair" day! You could take some advice from me.

The PC candidate with  all the bagged versus the Non PC candidate who doesn't give a damn. Isn't that worth a vote for Trump?

I would pay money to see that.......
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ccp

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #879 on: December 17, 2015, 08:17:43 AM »
We know Clinton will have all the answers and responses for every single possibility all written down just like the flowchart guidelines we see in medical care.   But frequently issues turn up that don't fit neatly into the flow in medical care and neither do political campaigns.

The one thing I do really like in Trump is when he says he will not discuss certain policy issues with regard to Isis etc.  He reasonably asks why should he tip off his enemy his every move?

He and any other  Republican candidate would do well to do the same when dealing with the Democratic criminal.   She and her mob cannot know in advance what the opposition is doing (though of course bribing for inside information must always be going on like on Wall St etc) so as to throw Hillary off.  We know she cannot think on her feet.  She freezes like a deer in headlights when she is surprised.  Too afraid of saying anything.   

ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #880 on: December 17, 2015, 08:46:39 AM »
That is why Trump would be so successful and fun to watch in a debate with Clinton. He would provoke her into a full blown melt down. No one else would do that because they are afraid of the PC police.
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DougMacG

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Re: 2016 Presidential, Rubio v Cruz
« Reply #881 on: December 17, 2015, 09:13:39 AM »
The aftermath of the debate has gotten interesting.  I was having a hard time understanding Rubio's strategy, giving Trump a pass on not knowing the basics of our military  while taking it to Cruz on immigration and intelligence.

But look what has followed, Cruz is now all tangled up on immigration.  He has staked out the most extreme position on the issue, further over than Trump, while the record and sound bites of the past show that Rubio was right.  Cruz supported legalization of illegals and expansion of the already legal programs.

Don't get me wrong.  I am a hard core conservative.  I would like to see us follow the rule of the law to the letter (except on the laws I break).  But I also want to win elections.  Does anyone remember when Rick Perry entered the 2008 race in the summer of 2007.  He was an unknown to the rest of us outside of Texas and had an amazing economic record governing the largest Republican state.  But then as he came out with positions, he was 100% pure conservative on all issues, no nuance, too good to be true, and too good to win. (He fell for other reasons.)  Cruz is different and more skilled but keeps running to prove to the already conservative that he is the most conservative running.  Well good for him, but I want a conservative to win the general election and change the nation's course, n ot to be a symbol of how I fell on principle back in 2016 when our country went all the way under.

Right now immigration is that issue.  It was frontrunner's launching point.  He went from a joke to first place.  It was the fight of the Senate.  It is the fight of this race.  Rubio wasn't saying Cruz is worse than him on the issue; he was saying they are all essentially the same on the issue.  We need to secure the country and we need to draw some really difficult line on who stays and who goes.  Cruz attacked on that issue unnecessarily because every conservative already knows Rubio's problem on it.  there isn't a far right site that has a pro-Rubio post in years.  But Rubio helped Cruz back himself into a corner on it.  And Cruz' response is to make himself 100% unelectable.  Now he has the choice of flipflopping further or answering the question DT can't answer, tell us how you are going to round them all up and send them home, 11 million or more.  And you don't get to use the ISIS tough talk of kill them all.  You get to describe the sheriff-led eviction lockout scenario where they pound on every door, round em up and take them away.  Like Crafty says, how will that play?

BTW, there isn't a let them stay but never be citizens or vote answer.  That just leaves a permanent issue on the table for Democrats, second class 'citizens', 3/5ths of a person etc.

Here is how that closet liberal, establishment puppet, Charle Krauthammer described what happened:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/12/17/krauthammer_trashes_cruz_over_immigration_he_crossed_the_rubicon_when_he_crossed_rubio.html

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER: What was interesting about your interview [with Sen. Ted Cruz], is that it was one quotation or soundbite from the guy you were interviewing after another.

It wasn't as if he said, well I interpret what you say, you just said that you've told us you never supported legalization, here's the clip.

I was surprised, because I have never seen him in a place where he looked trapped.

He pretended that this was a poison pill, he said well, you did say three times that you wanted to pass it, you wanted to get something that the country would agree on, and then when you hit him with that, the only place he could go, is to try to slide away and talk about other things.

When at the end, he was reduced to saying, look, what you're saying can't be true, Bret, that I'm contradicting myself, because it would imply that Jeff Sessions was for amnesty, so it can't be true.

That is, really reaching, and basically, I'm surprised, because he is not only a great debater, but he sure knows how to shift into another mode, to try to change the subject, but he is also prepared.

You would think he would have that answer prepared, or did the staff not tell him that you crossed, I hate to say this, a Rubicon last night, when [Rubio] made him say that [he never supported legalization].

He stumbled into saying he never supported legalization.
--------------------------------

And now he really doesn't.

We'll see what happens with polls on this.  Most likely Cruz goes the way of the frontrunner, up in nomination numbers and down in general election numbers.  Rubio's bet is that in the end, we will want to pick the one who will win.
------------------------------

Conservatives like Beck, Levin and Rush who trash Rubio over this are in denial that what Rubio was trying to do in the first place was pre-empt what Obama did anyway and the details of the bill would have had to be negotiated re-written to get through a conservative House.

If you think this is going to go away without difficult negotiations and compromise unfortunately, get used to losing.


ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #882 on: December 17, 2015, 02:47:32 PM »
Here is the Front Line video on the Immigration Battle. Very interesting because Immigration lost because not Cruz, but when Brat beat Cantor that night in Virginia. Otherwise, it would have passed.

https://youtu.be/-SeQdreN4MQ

Go to 5:38 in the video. Not good for Cruz.
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Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #883 on: December 17, 2015, 05:27:07 PM »
Uh , , , it only runs 31 seconds , , ,

DougMacG

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Re: 2016 Presidential, Who is winning Iowa?
« Reply #884 on: December 17, 2015, 05:39:48 PM »
First, it would be nice if 'winning in Iowa' meant winning in Iowa, meaning that you HAVE TO walk away with the 6 electoral votes there if you are going to win the election, not just win the Republican caucuses.  That said, here are today's polls:

Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton   PPP    Trump 43, Clinton 45   Clinton +2
Iowa: Cruz vs. Clinton   PPP    Cruz 47, Clinton 44   Cruz +3
Iowa: Rubio vs. Clinton   PPP    Rubio 48, Clinton 41   Rubio +7
Trump also TRAILS Bernie Sanders in Iowa in the same poll.  Why is he trumpeting polls when polls show him finishing last?
Rubio is winning Iowa (in this one, flawed poll).  Trump and Cruz are within the margin of error in this partly conservative state.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

We don't need margin of error.  We need to win 270 electoral votes minimum and really about 300 to shut down the post election, Democrat lawyer, cheating machine.  Iowa is 6 votes but the upper midwest region of MN, WI, MI and IA is 42 votes, all commonly lost in a Republican loss.  Reagan won 3 of those 4 states twice.

Has anyone else noticed (okay, other than Crafty) how consistent this pattern has been?
If the polls don't matter or are all wrong, why do we call one guy the frontrunner?  Why do we use them to decide who is in the debates?

There isn't a nationwide, general election poll listed on Real Clear Politics where Trump outperforms Rubio against Clinton, so I went to the superior site of Huffington Post and found this:
HuffPost Model Estimate
  Hillary Clinton 49.7%
  Donald Trump 42.7%
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
Nominee Trump = President Hillary Clinton
If election were held today.  If these polls are indicative.

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #885 on: December 17, 2015, 07:07:42 PM »
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ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #886 on: December 17, 2015, 07:19:18 PM »
This whole election is going to be about turnout and the get out the vote effort. Nothing else. Unfortunately, the assumptions made on the models will not reflect turnout.

Isn't it amazing that Trump is kicking ass in most states, leading by more than double the other candidates, but versus Hillary, others are leading and not him? It tells you that something is wrong in the polling and the assumptions being made, or else the GOP will simply sit out if Trump is the nominee. 

After the Senate vote on the Omnibus Bill, I am even more convinced that the GOP needs to collapse and another party take its place. Since that won't happen...........

LET IT BURN!!!!
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Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #887 on: December 17, 2015, 08:29:49 PM »
"Isn't it amazing that Trump is kicking ass in most states, leading by more than double the other candidates, but versus Hillary, others are leading and not him? It tells you that something is wrong in the polling and the assumptions being made, or else the GOP will simply sit out if Trump is the nominee."

No, it tells you that Republican primary voters are not representative of all voters. 



ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #888 on: December 18, 2015, 07:19:37 AM »
So let me get this straight.  You say that Primary Voters are not representative of the GOP electorate.  How do you account for:

1. Prior to Trump, Jeb was the general leader. Now he can't muster enough support to fill a McDonalds.

2. Since before announcing when his support was no more than 5-7%, Trump has increased in support to over 40% in some polls.

3. Trump's unfavorables have fallen from over 60% down to the low 30's.

4. Trump versus Hillary has had him closing the gap in most polls.


Now, what has accounted for this change?  Has:

1. The mix of Primary voters suddenly changed so that those who would normally vote in primaries no longer are going to vote so other candidates support are down?

2. Have those who have decided not to vote in the Primary been replaced by people suddenly deciding to vote in the Primary and they will all be Trump supporters?

3. Have the models suddenly changed to unfairly represent Trump support?


Nowhere in the internals am I seeing anything that could account for those changes...........
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DougMacG

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #889 on: December 18, 2015, 07:36:12 AM »
"You say that Primary Voters are not representative of the GOP electorate."

It looked to me like he is pointing to the difference between primary and general election voters.


Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #890 on: December 18, 2015, 08:54:00 AM »
"It looked to me like he is pointing to the difference between primary and general election voters."

Exactly so.

ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #891 on: December 18, 2015, 09:13:18 AM »
The polls are using the same population sample and asking preference in the Primary and then doing Head to Head Samples.  So how can there be such a difference?
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DougMacG

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #892 on: December 18, 2015, 09:38:30 AM »
The polls are using the same population sample and asking preference in the Primary and then doing Head to Head Samples.  So how can there be such a difference?

No, the difference between Trump leading in the primary and trailing in the general election matchups.  You say his negatives are improving or he can deal with that later but at this point he is not the strongest Republican candidate in the general election.

ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #893 on: December 18, 2015, 12:33:36 PM »
 Running for President is “Marketing”. You go out and

1.   Build initial interest and Create Initial Demand.

2.   Solidify the base of supporters.

3.   Appeal to others by shifting the marketing strategy which he is beginning now.

4.   Continue to create new demand and interest by improving the product (issues), and then introducing new products.

With a Marketing Strategy, you never let the product get to the Mature Phase. A Mature Product does not increase demand and actually loses demand after a period of time. When in the Mature stage, you reinvent yourself, or you go into decline.

At this point:

Snarly has matured and gone into decline. She must reinvent or drop out.

Carson has matured, declined and is now about gone. He must reinvent himself or drop out. It is doubtful he can reinvent himself.

Kasich, Huckabee, and Graham came in as matured and quickly went into decline. Kasich did try to reinvent himself, but the old product image was too strong and that has failed.

Christie came in matured, but in the debates has reinvented himself. But he must now increase demand and there is doubt that he can increase it much at this stage, though New Hampshire is looking good for him at this point. But will that transfer to other states? Not likely.

Rubio and Cruz both came in as new products. They have finally managed to create demand, and are gaining support. But how much further can they increase support, especially if they keep going after each other?  What new product can they insert into their campaigns at this point that would increase further demand?  I expect some additional growth from one or the other, but a mature product stage should soon materialize and the new product brought in.

As to Trump, he came in as a new product, saying the things that others were afraid to say, but believed. He gained initial support, but still garnered heavy resistance. Once it was confirmed that he was in to stay, support increased because the product was gaining acceptance and credibility.

Promotional marketing continued with a massive media campaign, funded by the media itself, increasing product exposure and gaining more support. Product comparison  tests (the debates) further cemented the differences over competing products, gaining further acceptance.  Current events (San Bermardino) reflected a further need for the product and support edged upward.

Now, the promotional phase has ended so a new marketing strategy must be implemented to keep from going stale and maturing.  There is evidence of it already being implemented……..

1.   The statement that the product would not challenge as a 3rd party candidate, but would work and believed in the party.

2.   A mellowing of statements in rallies and showing a more subdued personality that previously exhibited.

3.   Smaller Town Hall meetings where in more intimate settings, the products true personality showed through.

4.   Today’s statement that the product would be less devisive.

5.   Going after the other Party candidate.

The purpose of these changes are to expand market segment and favorability.

What is interesting is that he is now transitioning himself to being the Party Leader. This transition is being helped by the other candidates themselves by echoing his positions after having had other positions. 

Interesting also is that this transition is taking place while he is still gaining support. He is doing this before he hits the mature stage, the mark of a master marketeer.

It will be interesting to see the reaction to his comments about Ryan and the new budget. This should drive him higher and if others echo his position later, it make him even stronger.

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Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #894 on: December 18, 2015, 01:58:05 PM »
Interesting analysis Pat.

Some thoughts I would contribute:

1) Rubio misses a big opportunity when he fails to call himself the front runner per my previous posts in this regard.

2) Rubio missed a big opportunity in the debate to paint/point out Trump as the ignoramus for not knowing what the Nnuclear Triad is.  Is he afraid to go cage fight with Trump?

3) His food fight with Cruz on metadata and immigration serves neither of them and helps Trump.

4) ALL of the candidates should have jumped on the Ryan budget HARD as the betrayal that it is.

=====================================================================

Who needs “Star Wars VII”? We’ve got the Republican presidential competition. As alternative universes go, this one has been hard to beat.

Out of nowhere, Donald Trump (Is he Darth Vader? Luke Skywalker? Both?) landed in his celebrity starship to challenge and terrorize . . . the Establishment. The genius of the American political system is that it has built-in reality checks. The next one arrives in February with the start of 50 individual state primary elections or caucuses. Opinion-poll politics gives way to voting-booth politics.

Will Donald Trump, master of our alternative political universe, survive in the real-world primaries? This question forced itself upon us toward the end of the Las Vegas debate, when Hugh Hewitt asked Mr. Trump about the “nuclear triad.”
Opinion Journal Video
Assistant Editorial Page Editor James Freeman on the fifth Republican presidential debate. Photo credit: Getty Images.

This excerpt conveys the gist of his answer: “But we have to be extremely vigilant and extremely careful when it comes to nuclear. Nuclear changes the whole ballgame. Frankly, I would have said get out of Syria; get out—if we didn’t have the power of weaponry today. The power is so massive that we can’t just leave areas that 50 years ago or 75 years ago we wouldn’t care. It was hand-to-hand combat.”

That answer raises the recent Ben Carson question: How much does a candidate for the U.S. presidency actually need to know about anything in the real political world? The Las Vegas debate suggests we are moving closer to the realities of a voting-booth campaign, made clear in the fascinating, important exchanges between Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Notably, their discussion of dictators.

Wolf Blitzer asked Mr. Cruz about his past assertion that the U.S. should have left in place Saddam Hussein, Moammar Gadhafi and Hosni Mubarak. Let’s focus on Gadhafi.

Mr. Cruz replied that Hillary Clinton and President Obama “led NATO in toppling the government in Libya. They did it because they wanted to promote democracy. A number of Republicans supported them. The result,” he said, “is Libya is now a terrorist war zone run by jihadists.” He also opposed “toppling Assad.”

Mr. Cruz’s remarks are meant to attract the swath of GOP voters who get upset by the phrase, “nation building.” He hopes that when Sen. Rand Paul’s libertarian campaign inevitably folds, that isolationist base will move into the Cruz column. The Cruz campaign’s political math is: Evangelicals plus anti-immigration conservatives plus libertarians equals the nomination.

Sen. Rubio challenged Mr. Cruz’s elision of Gadhafi with Mubarak: “Moammar Gadhafi is the man that killed those Americans over Lockerbie, Scotland. Moammar Gadhafi is also the man that bombed that cafe in Berlin and killed those Marines.” He added that if “anti-American dictators like Assad, who help Hezbollah, who helped get those IEDs into Iraq, if they go, I will not shed a tear.”

Besides surfacing a substantive foreign-policy divide inside the GOP, the Cruz-Rubio exchanges yielded useful political insights about these two.

If one, bloodless qualification for the GOP nominee is, very simply, who’d best compete with Hillary Clinton in the debates, it looks to me like Marco Rubio would demolish her equivocations. We knew Mr. Rubio’s set-speech skills were impressive, but the mastery he routinely displayed in this debate of spontaneously compressing events and arguments into a coherent argument was impressive.

Mr. Cruz was a legendary debater at Princeton, a great political asset that may prove a problem. Mr. Cruz is running a debater’s campaign. In debate, rhetorical power depends on leaving out details. His frantic attempt later to get Mr. Blitzer to let him clarify his dictator comments suggested he knew Mr. Rubio had damaged him on an important point.

These two are formidable politicians, but Mr. Rubio’s ability to identify vulnerability and stick a shiv through the Cruz armor was unexpected.

Second best at this rapier is Carly Fiorina, who cut Donald Trump after he said Middle East military funds should have been spent on U.S. roads and airports. That, she said, is precisely Barack Obama’s position: “I’m amazed to hear that from a Republican presidential candidate.”

Ben Carson upped his policy game, but why didn’t he do that from day one? The delay is fatal. Jeb Bush also waited too long to learn the debate format, but the way he, of all people, made Donald Trump blow his top was great TV. For Mr. Bush, Chris Christie (whose ridicule of the Senate metadata debate was a gratuitous misfire) and John Kasich, the whole game now is New Hampshire. It’s win, place or go home.

We come out of Vegas with the same question we brought to Vegas: Is Donald Trump more than an opinion-poll phenom? Will they still love him inside the voting booths? Maybe. But this debate and the decline of Ben Carson suggests it’s time for Mr. Trump to up the substance of his game. The politicians are starting to catch up with the starship.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2015, 02:19:24 PM by Crafty_Dog »

ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #895 on: December 18, 2015, 02:31:46 PM »
Interesting thought for Rubio to try and claim that he was the front runner. However, Trump would come back and claim that other polls show him as being the front runner. Also, Trump would hit him with all the polls showing him in the primaries at from 35 to 41% and Rubio in the low teens. And then, "son, you gotta win the primary first".

As to TRIAD, how many people in the country actually understand what TRIAD means? Unless you were in the military, you would generally not know much about it. So as an issue, it is nothing to worry about. And if it was and ever came up again, I would answer if I were Trump, "you mean the sub force, the missile force and the air force..........we make our military strong enough, then we don't have to use TRIAD".

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ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #896 on: December 18, 2015, 02:52:00 PM »
The PPP poll now showing Trump increasing in strength.  This is the most comprehensive PPP poll yet. It is supporting a surge for Trump seen in other polls in both support and favorability.

PPP has had, along with IBD and NBC, the worst polls for Trump. Now they are catching up.  Have they changed methodology? If not, then this just collaborates a surge for Trump.

Carson is now "over" with this. Just more confirmation that he is through. Rubio? No change in support. Cruz an increase in support.

It is definitely a three person race. Trump, Cruz and Rubio.  If Rubio did not pick up any support from the last debate, it is not good for him at all. Yet, he is the only GOPe favorable candidate left.

Quote
Trump is the biggest gainer since our last national poll in mid-November, going from 26% to 34%. He’s also become more broadly popular with GOP voters, with his favorability rating going from 51/37 up to 58/34.

Trump’s hold on the Republican electorate holds true with most segments of the party. He leads with 36% among voters most concerned with having a nominee who’s conservative on the issues, and with 34% among voters most concerned about being able to beat a Democrat in the fall. He leads among both Evangelicals with 35%, and among non-Evangelicals with 33%.

He leads with both women (34%) and men (also 34%). He leads with both younger voters (38%) and seniors (32%).

There are only 2 groups of the electorate Trump doesn’t lead with- the closely related groups of Tea Party and ‘very conservative’ voters. Cruz has the upper hand with each of those. He’s at 38% with ‘very conservative’ voters to 32% for Trump, with no one else getting more than 8%. And he’s at 41% with Tea Party voters to 32% for Trump with no one else getting more than 9%.

Cruz has been the second biggest gainer since our last poll, going from 14% to 18%. There are other positive signs for Cruz in the poll. He’s the most frequent second choice of GOP voters with 14% picking him on that front to 10% each for Carson and Trump. He’s also the second pick of Trump voters specifically (25% to 13% for Carson) so he’s well positioned to benefit if Trump ever does falter.

Marco Rubio is really treading water. He was at 13% last month, and he’s at 13% this month. He’s losing second choice support- 13% said he was their next man up in November, now it’s just 9%.



http://www.scribd.com/doc/293631794/PPP-National-GOP-Poll-12-18-15


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ppulatie

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #897 on: December 18, 2015, 03:04:11 PM »
Fox poll just released....

Trump 39%
Cruz 18%
Rubio 11%
Carson 9%
Bush 3%

All polling done after the debate.

More confirmation that the Party base is moving towards Trump.
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DougMacG

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Re: 2016 Presidential, General election polling
« Reply #898 on: December 18, 2015, 04:21:43 PM »
Same poll you cite shows Trump losing to Clinton by 11, Rubio leading Clinton by 2,  a 13 point difference!

I keep looking for those numbers to move against Rubio but the spread keeps widening.

You may not see this but if Trump can't reverse that problem by primary time, people are going to pick someone who can win. 
You say have to win the primary first.  But you have to show you can win the general to win the primary, IMHO.

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton   FOX News   Clinton 49, Trump 38   Clinton +11
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton   FOX News   Clinton 45, Cruz 45   Tie
General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton   FOX News   Rubio 45, Clinton 43   Rubio +2
General Election: Carson vs. Clinton   FOX News   Clinton 46, Carson 44   Clinton +2
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/pres_general/

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Re: 2016 Presidential
« Reply #899 on: December 18, 2015, 05:16:45 PM »
Doug writes:

"Same poll you cite shows Trump losing to Clinton by 11, Rubio leading Clinton by 2,  a 13 point difference!

I keep looking for those numbers to move against Rubio but the spread keeps widening."

This makes me think this is exactly why Rush included Rubio in the "anti" establish group with Cruz and Trump.

I have concluded this is a good idea unlike Levin who continues to diminish Rubio.