Author Topic: Trade, Tariffs, Globalization, Strategic Mercantilismm and Globalism itself  (Read 109758 times)


DougMacG

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Re: Laffer likes Trump's economic policies sans tariffs.
« Reply #401 on: March 28, 2025, 07:27:12 AM »
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/arthur-laffer-trump-economy/2025/03/28/id/1204700/

Me too.  We keep arguing  the tariffs are but a tool, a tactic, but he keeps arguing they are the centerpiece, the revenue stream.

We will see soon, I think, where this is heading. April 2 is reciprocity day, no joke. )

Are we going to have true free trade agreements worldwide or equal bilateral tariffs?  One leads to a more prosperous world.  The other much less so.  cf.1930s.

Hint: It does not take 2062 pages to write a "free trade agreement". It takes one sentence or less.
https://www.cato.org/regulation/winter-2018-2019/nafta-20-better-nothing

Crafty_Dog

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The anti-tariff argument is one of economic efficiency.

It ignores supply chain fragility (including from instability elsewhere) and missing link criteria (if something goes unsupplied who else gets fuct?) and strategic considerations (e.g. depending on the Chinese for anti-biotics, REEs, etc)

There is also the matter of tax policy-- moving from internal revenue to external revenue.

Witness today from FO:

(13) CHINA CONSIDERS SHUTTING BRITISH STEEL: Chinese investment group Jingye is considering shutting down its subsidiary British Steel as early as June 2025. Jingye cites tariffs, challenging market conditions, and environmental costs to produce high-carbon steel. According to UK Steel, the largest British Steel furnace produces about 21% of the U.K.’s total steel production and 16% of the U.K.’s total needs. (By blaming tariffs, China is effectively telling the world that if you allow them to control your industry and they disagree with your policies, they will shut off your manufacturing. This will drive nations away from China. - J.V.)
« Last Edit: March 28, 2025, 08:40:51 AM by Crafty_Dog »

DougMacG

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"The anti-tariff argument is one of economic efficiency.

It ignores supply chain fragility (including from instability elsewhere) and missing link criteria (if something goes unsupplied who else gets fuct?) and strategic considerations (e.g. depending on the Chinese for anti-biotics, REEs, etc)"


  - Good luck threading that needle. It worked (sort of) for others when their trading partners (US) didn't retaliate. That doesn't seem to be the case for us now.

20 worst countries for freedom to trade include Cameroon, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, Haiti, Afghanistan, Syria, North Korea.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-20-best-and-worst-countries-in-the-world-according-to-the-DEA-LPI_tbl3_317134092

Which group do we want to be in?

Regarding China etc. I don't see a conflict between free trade generally and banning imports, exports with adversaries.

« Last Edit: March 28, 2025, 08:45:07 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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How would you apply your last sentence to China threatening to shut down its British steel operations?

DougMacG

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How would you apply your last sentence to China threatening to shut down its British steel operations?

"Regarding China etc. I don't see a conflict between free trade generally and banning imports, exports with adversaries."

Add 'ban Chinese ownership' to the above, if that's how they behave.

https://apnews.com/article/britain-steel-job-losses-scunthorpe-china-fe3a0edf7ebbc8340115677dddd9ddb5

I agree, free trade doesn't apply to thieves and scoundrels. In all trade policy discussions, China is a unique case.

Also, export licenses have long been required for military and dual use technologies.

I get what you are saying about protecting strategic Industries, but isn't that what Canada is doing with dairy and lumber, what Germany is doing with automobiles, etc. Accept all of that and add in all of ours plus the retaliations and where does it end?
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Isn't there a contradiction between setting tariffs so high that no one Imports steel for example, and having a steady tariff revenue stream?

Our central planners are going to dynamically set tariff rates for every individual product so perfectly that both domestic production and a reliable tariff revenue stream will exist?

Color me skeptical.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2025, 10:10:25 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Strategic tariffs and reciprocal tariffs and punititve tariffs are distinct and different criteria apply to each.

Yes there are serious balancing challenges for each of these categories, but is continuing what we have now acceptable?   What would you have us do?
« Last Edit: March 28, 2025, 10:34:31 AM by Crafty_Dog »

DougMacG

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Promoting tariffs, a dangerous game
« Reply #407 on: March 29, 2025, 01:18:34 AM »
"Strategic tariffs and reciprocal tariffs and punititve tariffs are distinct and different criteria apply to each."

"Yes there are serious balancing challenges for each of these categories, but is continuing what we have now acceptable?   What would you have us do?"

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1. China is a special exception, they steal from us and they are a military adversary.

2. The unrecipical nature of the trading world Trump walked into justifies the tactics he is currently taking.but my understanding is the end game of reciprocal tariffs is zero tariffs.

3. Propping up our noncompetitive industries while breaking down trading partner barriers seems contradictory to me. For every import tax we levy, we can expect more tariffs against our exports. No?

4. A tariff is a tax on our consumer.  If they are widespread, then we are poorer. A tough tradeoff.

5. I come into this with with an exporter career bias. A small manufacturer here may have half its business overseas. While tariffs may protect some here they jeopardize others with retaliatory tariffs overseas. Not win-win.

6. Again, the list of countries with lowest barriers to trade and highest barriers, like the Heritage economic freedom index, all point to a direct correlation between economic freedom, low taxes, low tariffs, and prosperity. Prosperity is a big deal, number one except for maybe freedom and security, and it plays a big role in those.

7. Old data but its been posted, docunented here that the high VAT countries of Europe would be the 46th richest state here if a US state (among the poorest) adjusted for PPP, purchasing power parity, because of high consumption taxes.

8. Sorry but I have yet to see the raising  and levying of new taxes make existing taxes go down. We have a $2 :trillion deficit. These revenues at best will chip that down, but not if new taxes and trade wars trigger recession or worse.

9. I side with Laffer, Steve Moore, Sowell, Adam Smith on this, here is Jude Wanniski:

Wanniski's 1978 book, The Way the World Works, documented his theory that the United States Senate's floor votes on the Smoot–Hawley tariff legislation coincided day to day with the Wall Street stock market Crash of 1929, and that the Great Depression was the result of the Smoot–Hawley tariff, rather than any failure...
https://en.wikipedia.org
Jude Wanniski, ki - Wikipedia

10. Trump is playing a high stakes poker game with this. I hope he wins.  Winning means (to me) both sides taking their reciprial tariffs down to zero, like India, Vietnam, Britain have suggested.

11. I don't trust government industry technocrats to strike the aforementioned perfect protectionist balance.

12. Back to 1. China is special case. Mexico is a special case, we have goals other than trade. Carve out too many exceptions to free trade and per no. 6. above, prosperity suffers. With economic failure will come political failure, more socialism, less freedom. 

JMHO.

Okay, one more, 13. Herman Cain's rule of 9-9-9. If you're going to tax something, let's not be talking in double digits, 25%, 50%, etc. State and local sales taxes I'm seeing across the nation already round to 10%, are bad enough. Add 10 more, the federal tariff to that and we're at 20%. There won't be a lot of consumin" goin' on out there even at that rate. I'm afraid we'll have the economic dynamism of socialist Europe.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2025, 01:48:09 AM by DougMacG »

ccp

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really good synopsis
thanks Doug.

seems like the tariffs are very risky at least when applied to non combatant nations unlike as you pointed out China, [and Russia], and Mexico a special case.

perhaps a few others like Venezuela Iran etc.

DougMacG

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Milton Friedman on tariffs, many quotes
« Reply #409 on: March 29, 2025, 09:30:01 AM »
More quotes coming. I will add YouTube links to this.
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Friedman quotes an economic book from the 1890s:
(from memory)
'In times of war we blockade an enemy to prevent them from getting the goods they need from the outside. In times of peace, with tariffs, we do that to ourselves.'
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FEE.org

Monday, April 9, 2018
Milton Friedman: The Way We Talk about Trade Confuses the Issue

In the international trade area, the language is almost always about how we must export, and what’s really good is an industry that produces exports, and if we buy from abroad and import, that’s bad. But surely that’s upside-down. What we send abroad, we can’t eat, we can’t wear, we can’t use for our houses. The goods and services we send abroad, are goods and services not available to us. On the other hand, the goods and services we import, they provide us with TV sets we can watch, with automobiles we can drive, with all sorts of nice things for us to use.

The gain from foreign trade is what we import. What we export is a cost of getting those imports. And the proper objective for a nation as Adam Smith put it, is to arrange things so that we get as large a volume of imports as possible, for as small a volume of exports as possible.

This carries over to the terminology we use. When people talk about a favorable balance of trade, what is that term taken to mean? It’s taken to mean that we export more than we import. But from the point of our well-being, that’s an unfavorable balance. That means we’re sending out more goods and getting fewer in. Each of you in your private household would know better than that. You don’t regard it as a favorable balance when you have to send out more goods to get fewer coming in. It’s favorable when you can get more by sending out less.
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https://youtu.be/FzhQZ2iNV-k?si=wFVOEp7q6m98PAb1
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https://www.hoover.org/research/case-free-trade

The case for free trade

Ever since Adam Smith there has been virtual unanimity among economists, whatever their ideological position on other issues, that international free trade is in the best interests of trading countries and of the world. Yet tariffs have been the rule....
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« Last Edit: March 29, 2025, 09:46:50 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Yes, that is the economic argument.