2020 Presidential election

[G M]

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/390977.php

[DougMacG]

If Trump ends up winning, the reasons easily write themselves, the economy, weak opponent, extremist over-reach of the left, etc.

If Biden and the Democrats win, I've had a hard time figuring out what the reasons would be.

Here is the opposing view, Tim Alberta of Politico, giving 16 reasons why this year is different than 2016.

Reading through them, I only find one reason, polling.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/27/alberta-final-feelings-2020-election-432718

[ccp]

"Biden will beat George!"

reminds me of a patient I had with memory loss who when I asked her who is president she replied , "Roosevelt"

[DougMacG]

Trending: Trump tops Biden, 48% to 47%, with 52% approval rating.

Careful when you hear people say, 'all the polls say' .

After the fact we often hear, 'the only poll that got it right'.

[ccp]

Trump tops Biden, 48% to 47%

that we mysteriously

change to 48 % biden and 47 % trump

a week or so AFTER  election

[ccp]

? SDNY to come out with criminal charges for some trumped up tax thing?

new anonymous source with some made up dirt?

[ppulatie]

Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #PApoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a narrow Trump lead for the first time:
48.4% @realDonaldTrump,
47.6% @JoeBiden,
2.2% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
0.7% Other,
1.0% Und. See Report: https://t.co/qf16dkxc...

Yesterday InsiderAdvantage had Trump up by 2 in PA.

IBD has 65 yo+ breaking strongly towards Trump now.

2016 all over again.

[Crafty_Dog]

I needed that to start my day!

[ppulatie]

Still have Trump with 306 EV.  NV, NH and MN on the fence.

Don't think Trump can get any of them except maybe NH if he gets real lucky.

[ppulatie]

Should hold Senate with 51 or 52.

House, gone again.

[DougMacG]

"IBD has 65 yo+ breaking strongly towards Trump now."


Also I think it is Wisconsin early vote reporting young vote (Biden vote) not showing up.  If they don't vote early compared to other groups, they mostly won't vote at all.  If you are young, what is to excite you about Biden?  He knew Obama and Obama was hip / cool?  Obama has never had any luck dragging anyone but himself over the finish line.

We heard a talk by a Washington 'expert' yesterday, he represents the largest insurance company in the world there.  He  basically said the defects in the polls were repaired since 2016, that Dems will pick up 5 in the House, win'' the Senate with a tie at 50 by winning 4 and losing Alabama, and take the White House (breaking the tie in the Senate).  [If the polls are wrong, all that has no meaning.]

If the polls are significantly and structurally wrong, why wouldn't Republicans gain 17 House seats?

RCP this morning, Trump is 1.2% behind where he was in 2016 in the 'battleground states'.  All other things equal, he did not have 1.2% to spare.

There are more more late breaking facts this year to break Trump's way *  but there is less significance to that with 56 million already voted(?). 

* Late breaking facts this year to break Trump's way:  Huge economic growth numbers, Biden guilty in scandal, Biden gaffes, realization  of 'transition off of oil and gas'  'green new deal' admission and ... the Kamala cackle. 
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/will-kamala-harris-push-biden-to-the-left/#x
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f997AsNsbPk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y236uwIbskE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyH2AmyhWnk&list=PLXsPyX8RCTYz70Mw8kFihfM1U3CwdUkbg

[DougMacG]

1000 rioters, 30 police injured in Philly 'peaceful protest'.  Who does this spectacle help, hurt in the final countdown?

Imagine the backlash if tea party protests looted cities and attacked and injured the police.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/walter-wallace-jr-philadelphia-police-shooting-second-night-clashes-looting/

[DougMacG]

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2016/11/08/hillary-clinton-has-got-this-probably-very-probably

[ccp]

Trump is 1.2% behind where he was in 2016 in the 'battleground states'.  All other things equal, he did not have 1.2% to spare.

especially with the voter fraud
we need to be up more than that

we know elections rigged

[DougMacG]

Trump is 1.2% behind where he was in 2016 in the 'battleground states'.  All other things equal, he did not have 1.2% to spare.

especially with the voter fraud
we need to be up more than that

we know elections rigged

Yes, they admit building the biggest vote fraud operation ever. 

The other exception to "all other things equal" is that nearly all late breaking news is breaking Trump's way, Middle East peace treaties, radical Leftists gone wild, economic growth, Biden corruption.  Democrats are stuck with the department store rape case from the 90's, going nowhere.
-----
2018 midterms OTOH were under the cloud of the Mueller investigation and the possibility the President might be a Russian spy. 

675 days of investigations with 60 FBI agents and lawyers, 2,800 subpoenas, 500 witnesses, 500 search warrants executed, looking into everything down to his business deals and tax returns came up with NOTHING.

That's not where Democrats expected to be right now.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/03/24/mueller-report-trump-campaign-investigation-numbers/3263353002/

[DougMacG]

"Aggregate polls tend to obscure the dynamic changes in the voters’ candidate preferences especially among the demographic groups that can decide the election."

[ccp]

https://news.yahoo.com/kavanaughs-opinion-wisconsin-voting-case-121221776.html

"The Supreme Court decision Monday effectively barring the counting of mail-in ballots in Wisconsin that arrive after Election Day was not a surprise for many Democrats, who had pressed for it but expected to lose.

But a concurring opinion by Justice Brett Kavanaugh set off alarms among civil rights and Democratic Party lawyers, who viewed it as giving public support to President Donald Trump’s arguments that any results counted after Nov. 3 could be riddled with fraudulent votes — an assertion unsupported by the history of elections in the United States"

FAKE news !
voter fraud exists and is very under reported - try proving it!

It is rigged so it is hard to prove  - lawyers know how to skirt the laws - the same dem operatives who claim it does not exist

https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud

They rig the system so they can harvest votes in the close election locations and when the repubs point it out they turn around and bitch about it
and start sounding "alarms " about SCOTUS justices

[ppulatie]

Reputable polls continue to show tightening race or even Trump ahead.

Don't pay attention to following biased polls

YouGov
Monkey
PPP
Q
Shaw

A few others also.

Florida looking so much better with the early voting. Dem early lead voting dropping about 40-50k every day. About 250k right now for a lead.  They should need about 600k for a Biden win.

[ppulatie]

EV in FL now down to 231 Dem lead.

Dropping fast.

Unless Reps have really pushed forward their Election Day voting, it will be a solid Trump win.

[ccp]

"Unless Reps have really pushed forward their Election Day voting, it will be a solid Trump win."

I will buy everyone here PP, CD , Doug , and GM a maga hat
If Trump wins

not expecting to be out any money but hope I am wrong

[ppulatie]

FL

Dem early voting lead now down to 225k.

[ppulatie]

CCP

DOOOOM!

[ppulatie]

Told ya Wisconsin going Trump

Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #WIpoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a razor thin Biden lead:
47.5% @JoeBiden,
47.1% @realDonaldTrump,
3.1% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
1.2% Other,
1.1% Und. See Report: https://t.co/VAoU4iJFHb

[ccp]

for refusing to make a deal

till after election
and for threats to close everything down AGAIN

this might help Trump get re elected

[DougMacG]

Democrats plan to win with the youth vote.
Democrats push hard for the mail-in vote. Democrats didn't seem to know that there are people in their twenties and thirties that have never mailed a letter.
What could go wrong?

I'm so old I can remember when 'the stupid party' referred to Republicans.

[ppulatie]

FL 211k early votes now separate

Reps closed gap by 36k already today.

At this pace, by Tues morn, all will be about equal.  Of course, depends upon who the Indies come out for.

[Tordislung]

FL 211k early votes now separate

Reps closed gap by 36k already today.

At this pace, by Tues morn, all will be about equal.  Of course, depends upon who the Indies come out for.

Personally... I voted Trump last time. With his attacks on the 2nd Amendment though, I'm definitely voting for Jorgensen this time. Ive seen several who have this attitude - "take the guns first....due process 2nd."
Two years of House and Senate control, zero gun laws repealed. Reauthorized Patriot Act....pretends to be pro 2nd amendment.

Jorgensen wont win...but she's only aiming for 5% to get federal funding.

Still, Trump didn't do himself any favors with people that used to support him.

[ppulatie]

A vote for Jorgensen is a vote for Biden then. 

Fortunately, far more Dems are deserting Biden for Trump.

[Tordislung]

A vote for Jorgensen is a vote for Biden then. 

Fortunately, far more Dems are deserting Biden for Trump.

No. A vote is a vote.

If one casts a vote for Jorgensen then the count looks like this:

Biden 0
Trump 0
Jorgensen 1

Especially when federal funding for future elections is involved. Has always been interesting how supporters of either major party seems to tally a vote for a third party, as support for the other major party.

There is a center of the universe. Neither major party is it.

Best of luck.

Edit: Just curious, do you have a source to your claim that more democratic are abandoning Biden for Trump, or is that conjecture? Not being rude. Honestly curious.

[ppulatie]

Mostly anedoctel evidence for now.  Will try and get you some sources.

[ppulatie]

Here is an old one.

https://www.newsweek.com/10-percent-democrats-will-vote-trump-poll-says-1516431

[ppulatie]

Also

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/16/minnesota-democrat-switch-trump-election

[Tordislung]

Also

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/16/minnesota-democrat-switch-trump-election

Interesting poll and article. Thank you.

It will be curious to see how the election between Trump, Harris and Jorgensen, turns out.

[ppulatie]

FLORIDA

Separation is now 203k with a couple of hours left for today.

Keeps and it will be about tied for sure come Tuesday.  And Reps usually win the Election Day vote numbers.

[ccp]

all the broward dade county

you know whos running around as we speak to harvest ballots

Palm Beach County Jews will show up on election day to vote
most are Dems  I used to live there

Miami Jews too.

Democrat lawyers already hard at work
ready to file the lawsuits if the count does not go there way
2000 all over again

[G M]

[DougMacG]

"pretends to be pro 2nd amendment."

   - Appointed 300 judges and 3 supreme court justices who will uphold the constitution including the second amendment.  That is libertarian.  Joe Biden will do the exact opposite.  If you're not doing everything you can legally to stop him, you're working against your own stated interest in my opinion.  Only one person can beat the Left anti-liberty, anti-gun candidate.  Like it or not, that is Trump.

Correcting your math, if you vote Jorgenson, whoever that is, the score will be closer to something like this:
Biden 70 million
Trump 70 million
Jorgenson 1

Others here have been libertarian.  Plenty of other people have been frustrated with the two parties, Trump ran against the two parties, but the people who actually get elected do it from inside the two parties. Trump knows that. Rand Paul knows that. Bernie knows that.  AOC and Omar know.  Ralph Nader doesn't.  These crucial elections to save the country turn binary. There are two possible winners and there are footnotes.  You don't advance what you say you care about by letting the Left win and pass laws, screw up the judicial system and undermine our rights and liberties.

My humble opinion.

[G M]

I am actually registered as a Libertarian. I voted for Trump because I didn't want to waste my vote.

"pretends to be pro 2nd amendment."

   - Appointed 300 judges and 3 supreme court justices who will uphold the constitution including the second amendment.  That is libertarian.  Joe Biden will do the exact opposite.  If you're not doing everything you can legally to stop him, you're working against your own stated interest in my opinion.  Only one person can beat the Left anti-liberty, anti-gun candidate.  Like it or not, that is Trump.

Correcting your math, if you vote Jorgenson, whoever that is, the score will be closer to something like this:
Biden 70 million
Trump 70 million
Jorgenson 1

Others here have been libertarian.  Plenty of other people have been frustrated with the two parties, Trump ran against the two parties, but the people who actually get elected do it from inside the two parties. Trump knows that. Rand Paul knows that. Bernie knows that.  AOC and Omar know.  Ralph Nader doesn't.  These crucial elections to save the country turn binary. There are two possible winners and there are footnotes.  You don't advance what you say you care about by letting the Left win and pass laws, screw up the judicial system and undermine our rights and liberties.

My humble opinion.

[Tordislung]

"pretends to be pro 2nd amendment."

   - Appointed 300 judges and 3 supreme court justices who will uphold the constitution including the second amendment.  That is libertarian.  Joe Biden will do the exact opposite.  If you're not doing everything you can legally to stop him, you're working against your own stated interest in my opinion.  Only one person can beat the Left anti-liberty, anti-gun candidate.  Like it or not, that is Trump.

Correcting your math, if you vote Jorgenson, whoever that is, the score will be closer to something like this:
Biden 70 million
Trump 70 million
Jorgenson 1

Others here have been libertarian.  Plenty of other people have been frustrated with the two parties, Trump ran against the two parties, but the people who actually get elected do it from inside the two parties. Trump knows that. Rand Paul knows that. Bernie knows that.  AOC and Omar know.  Ralph Nader doesn't.  These crucial elections to save the country turn binary. There are two possible winners and there are footnotes.  You don't advance what you say you care about by letting the Left win and pass laws, screw up the judicial system and undermine our rights and liberties.

My humble opinion.

Odd... Can't find the Whig party anywhere. Why is that?

"Take the guns first....due process second." Donald Trump Smacks of constitutionality.
As does every other infringement upon it.

Lincoln... Also third party.
The Soviet Union ceased existing with roughly the passage of nine hours. Biden nor Trump are going to cause the world to stop spinning. Four million years of Hominid existence...will continue. Queue the scene from Monolith 2001... We're still here. 5% of the vote and federal funding for elections is a victory, so we're not tallying numbers the same.
Biden 70,000,000
Trump 70,000,000
Jorgensen 7,000,000 = solid win.

Edit: Bears mentioning that even Trump himself...was and is an outsider....still won...readily acknowledged elsewhere here, in this same site.

GM:
And... You didn't. You voted for who you felt the appropriate choice was.
Excellent. Was just going over Socrates' thoughts on democracy and voting.

Then again... They executed him... What do I know?

[G M]

Where would our gun rights be if Hillary was running for her second term right now? Any rights for that matter?

"pretends to be pro 2nd amendment."

   - Appointed 300 judges and 3 supreme court justices who will uphold the constitution including the second amendment.  That is libertarian.  Joe Biden will do the exact opposite.  If you're not doing everything you can legally to stop him, you're working against your own stated interest in my opinion.  Only one person can beat the Left anti-liberty, anti-gun candidate.  Like it or not, that is Trump.

Correcting your math, if you vote Jorgenson, whoever that is, the score will be closer to something like this:
Biden 70 million
Trump 70 million
Jorgenson 1

Others here have been libertarian.  Plenty of other people have been frustrated with the two parties, Trump ran against the two parties, but the people who actually get elected do it from inside the two parties. Trump knows that. Rand Paul knows that. Bernie knows that.  AOC and Omar know.  Ralph Nader doesn't.  These crucial elections to save the country turn binary. There are two possible winners and there are footnotes.  You don't advance what you say you care about by letting the Left win and pass laws, screw up the judicial system and undermine our rights and liberties.

My humble opinion.

Odd... Can't find the Whig party anywhere. Why is that?

"Take the guns first....due process second." Donald Trump Smacks of constitutionality.
As does every other infringement upon it.

Lincoln... Also third party.
The Soviet Union ceased existing with roughly the passage of nine hours. Biden nor Trump are going to cause the world to stop spinning. Four million years of Hominid existence...will continue. Queue the scene from Monolith 2001... We're still here. 5% of the vote and federal funding for elecrions is a victory, so we're not tallying numbers the same.
Biden 70,000,000
Trump 70,000,000
Jorgensen 7,000,000 = solid win.

GM:
And... You didn't. You voted for who you felt the appropriate choice was.
Excellent. Was just going over Socrates' thoughts on democracy and voting.

Then again... They executed him... What do I know?

[Tordislung]

Where would our gun rights be if Hillary was running for her second term right now? Any rights for that matter?

With an armed populace dissolving the American version of the Cheka/NKVD would be my guess. The Russians did it and they weren't even armed.

[DougMacG]

"Biden 70,000,000
Trump 70,000,000
Jorgensen 7,000,000 = solid win"

Math correction, IMHO, evenly divided electorate
Biden 70 million
Trump 63 million
Libertarian 7 million
Double digit, landslide win for Biden. 
L is the spoiler, not the winner.

Closer to reality:
Biden 70 million
Trump 69,999,999
Libertarian   1

Solid victory for whom? Only the one they inaugurate.  Neither of those scenarios advances my liberty, or yours. Sorry.

If you can build a libertarian party to be bigger than today's R party WITHOUT losing everything we have to the Left along the way, great. But you can't.

Libertarians don't control the R party, why?  Because they don't have enough support.  Not because they are shut down or kept out.

Make the issues argument all day and all night long, year round and throughout the election, but don't help the left win elections while saying you care about liberty. Makes no sense in my view.

Leftists more clever than us try to get Libertarians on the ballots siphoning off votes from conservatives all the time.  Know your enemy.

One example:  https://www.propublica.org/article/in-montana-dark-money-helped-democrats-hold-a-key-senate-seat

Result in Montana race: D +1, R -1, L = 0  One vote swung in a divided US Senate is a big deal.

[Tordislung]

"Biden 70,000,000
Trump 70,000,000
Jorgensen 7,000,000 = solid win"

Math correction, IMHO, evenly divided electorate
Biden 70 million
Trump 63 million
Libertarian 7 million
Double digit, landslide win for Biden.  L is the spoiler, not the winner.

Closer to reality:
Biden 70 million
Trump 69,999,999
Libertarian   1

Solid victory for whom? Only the one they inaugurate.  Neither scenario advances my liberty, or yours.

If you can build a libertarian party to be bigger than today's R party WITHOUT losing everything we have to the Left along the way, great. But you can't.

Libertarians don't control the R party, why?  They don't have enough support.

Make the issues argument all day and all night long, year round and throughout the election, but don't help the left win while saying you care about liberty. Makes no sense in my view.

Leftists more clever than us try to get Libertarians on the ballots siphoning off  votes from conservatives.  Know your enemy.

One example:  https://www.propublica.org/article/in-montana-dark-money-helped-democrats-hold-a-key-senate-seat

Result: D +1, R -1, L = 0  One vote swung in a divided US Senate is a big deal.

Im new here, so I won't enter the fray other than to say, we'll see What the numbers bear out. That is, if one can trust the count.

Sometimes, it's a race to zero, that is first necessary to achieve a victory.

[DougMacG]

Fair enough.  I would add:

Your last example of breaking the two party system into a different two party system was Lincoln.  I applaud patiently taking the long view but we won't have a republic in a hundred and sixty  years if we don't stop Leftism now.

Biden is a chump, his word.  Harris is the furthest left Senator of a pretty far left Senate.
She is certain to be President in your plan. They're already floated the idea of putting Beto in charge of gun confiscation.  This is so immediate they will be taking guns before I have time to buy one. And they will take my life savings. You don't win anyone over by helping that happen. Libertarian leaning Republicans are your allies, not your opponent, IMHO. You won't create a new party without them.

Back to the Lincoln example and differences to today.  He wasn't a spoiler.  He won.

[DougMacG]

Tordislung, you are new here, welcome.

Have you read our Trump accomplishments thread? Have you read our Political Economics thread? Guns aren't the only liberty (I'm sure you know.)  Most here didn't support Trump until he was the last person standing against far Leftism.  I ripped him ruthlessly for his support of the anti-property rights Kelo decision.  Then he won and appointed and got confirmed and sworn in three Justices better than I could have ever picked that I think will never support thst kind of Leftist fascism.

Trump is a former Democrat, former crony government guy.  He says things still that make me cringe. But he is the only person who could beat HRC and the only person and the only person who can beat the Leftist machine behind Biden Harris.

Sounds like you already made your mind otherwise.  Good luck with that.  May I ask, what state are you in?

[ppulatie]

Rasmuessen reports their polling shows that Trump will get...........

31% of the Black Vote.

If this happens, the Beach Boys have a song for this.........................WIPEOUT!

[ppulatie]

If the presidential election was held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden?"

National Daily Black Likely Voter % For
@POTUS
 - October 26-29, 2020
 
Mon 10/26 - 27%
Tue 10/27 - 30%
Wed 10/28 - 30%
Thu 10/29 - 31%

[ppulatie]

187,489 votes separate the two parties in Florida

God, Miami-Dade has given Trump over 35,000 more votes vs 2016

[ccp]

documents found!

i was wrong )

though not clear how they mysteriously "fell" out of the package .

now I want to hear what is in them.

hope I am wrong about the election
walking in ballots next Tuesday unless I die first.

not wasting my vote on Jindal , Jorgenson or any other person for waste of time reasons

Do not vote your conscious , what does that prove - you can sleep better voting for someone who will not win or wreck the country

vote to win for America !

[Crafty_Dog]

As I have mentioned previously, in 2016 were we to add the Libertarian vote to Trump and the Green vote to Hillary, Trump would have won the popular vote by a tiny margin.

Tordislung:  FYI, I ran for US Congress 3X for the Libertarian Party (1984, '88, '92)