Someone reading this from far away might wonder who won. So do we.
Betting odds probably tell the best story. Trump peaked at 70% chance of win at 4:30am after the election, now at 5% chance. Late arriving mail in votes mostly favor Biden? Military votes favor Trump? Biden likely to win the remaining states to be called. If he flips Georgia, that has long consequences.
A recount of the same votes will yield roughly the same result. If there was significant fraud, that needs to be discovered now, not after the results are certified.
Polls were wrong by more than ever. Shame on them. Shame on us for putting so much significance in them.
Republican net loss of 1 in the Senate out of 23 to defend is good. (Why do people expect runoffs in Georgia to go Republican?)
Democrats lost seats in the House. Some say 6 seats, some say the number is 10 and climbing. I think the magic number was 17. Still possible, not likely.
Republicans made gains in the state legislature, further making the blue wave talk false. Republicans flipped one governorship in Montana and one state legislature, NH. Democrats flipped nothing beyond Biden's likely extremely narrow win.
Divided country. Divided election. Divided government. As the NYT put it, blue wave crashed:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/election-state-house-legislature-governors.htmlBut China's release of the coronavirus succeeded.
Now what, government by executive order with Murkowski, Collins the only check on power, except Amy Coney Barrett and some other new judges.
Without a political shift, the Senate will be difficult to hold in 2022, but the House might flip in an off year.
Biden will have a hard time holding his office if he doesn't appease the far Left.
I think Trump 2024 is unrealistic. He will hold that open for attention but there are some problems with it. He just lost to the worst candidate ever.
How Joe Biden governs will be determined by one main person, Jill Biden.
