Author Topic: 2024  (Read 171431 times)

DougMacG

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Re: ET
« Reply #850 on: November 08, 2023, 03:10:21 PM »
second

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/takeaways-from-tuesdays-elections-5519511?utm_source=News&src_src=News&utm_campaign=breaking-2023-11-08-2&src_cmp=breaking-2023-11-08-2&utm_medium=email&est=KFxoaecy9OoMbF17w2AgGyAbR2Ny3fowpiq9f0G86Obhbtu9ZBqe20rfhymEpRMjweyb

They have some valid points about realignment and flaws on the R side, that to me doesn't get you to a Trump voter, ticket splitter pulling the lever for the Democrat or for unrestricted abortion, for higher taxes, bigger government, more intrusion etc.

Beshear seems to be a handsome likeable young man with a beautiful wife and speaks and governs as a moderate. But he will put a Democrat in the Senate and that is a vote for Chuck Schumer and Hamas and men in women's sports, trillion dollar deficits, inflation and all the rest of it.

Strange times and strange politics.

Crafty_Dog

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Biggest DeSantis backer flips to Trump
« Reply #851 on: November 08, 2023, 04:14:29 PM »
https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-wins-over-desantis-biggest-donor-who-says-america-needs-strongest-commander-back-5525629?utm_source=Goodevening&src_src=Goodevening&utm_campaign=gv-2023-11-08&src_cmp=gv-2023-11-08&utm_medium=email&est=XNNOVNbrEAUAy1SNzD30ogtLAJJfKuRhZJHD6CNzdVy0qLKsQP4HzXfnMLZxfQ5PTAYc

Can't say I disagree with his analysis.

DeSantis is not wrong to make the point about the consequences of Trump conviction(s) and I certainly continue to prefer him over Haley.

It will be intersting to see the two of them in 45 minutes.

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Reps tired of all the losing?
« Reply #852 on: November 08, 2023, 04:34:31 PM »
Are Republicans Tired of All the Losing?
Another lousy Election Day shows the GOP has a brand problem.
By
The Editorial Board
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Nov. 8, 2023 6:44 pm ET



Democrats are buoyant about their Tuesday night election showing, and why not? They handed Republicans another drubbing with their twin issue set of abortion rights and fear and loathing of the MAGAGOP. Republicans have a brand perception problem.


Start in Virginia, where Democrats picked up the state House of Delegates and held control of the state Senate. GOP gains in the Legislature were always going to be a tall order two years into Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s term when incumbent parties typically lose seats. President Biden won the state by 10 points and congressional Democrats in 2022 carried all seven of the state Senate’s swing districts.

Mr. Youngkin nonetheless deserves credit for investing his political capital to seek gains. The result was disappointing, but it’s not the giant failure the Trumpians on cable TV are claiming. Republicans picked up one seat in the state Senate for a 21-19 split. Democrats retook the House, though they’re on track for a thin majority of 51-49.

National Democrats poured in millions of dollars to tarnish Mr. Youngkin, who showed in 2021 he could carry a state that has moved left. They reprised their 2022 strategy of pounding GOP candidates on abortion in the race’s final weeks. Mr. Youngkin tried to parry the attacks by unifying Republicans around a 15-week limit with exceptions. But that wasn’t enough to blunt the claims that Republicans are extremists who will outlaw all abortions.

That’s especially true in the suburbs. Democrats defeated a Republican incumbent in suburban Richmond who sensibly explained that her support for a 15-week compromise was informed by her own experience as an obstetrician delivering premature infants.

They won a Loudoun County seat in a district that Gov. Youngkin carried by less than one point in 2021. Former prosecutor Russet Perry ran as a champion of abortion rights and defeated the GOP’s Juan Pablo Segura, a local businessman. Northern Virginia has become toxic for the GOP since Mr. Trump became the leading face of the party. The recent GOP House chaos on Capitol Hill didn’t help.

Abortion was also important in Kentucky, where Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear cruised to re-election in a state Mr. Trump carried by more than 25 points in 2020. Gov. Beshear styles himself as a moderate, and he ran ads suggesting the GOP would force rape survivors to give birth to their attacker’s children.

Republican candidate Daniel Cameron offered inconsistent answers about which abortion exceptions he’d support, in a high-wire act of trying to placate different parts of the electorate. He also touted Mr. Trump’s endorsement to win the GOP primary, but Mr. Beshear used that to peel away non-MAGA GOP voters.

Ohio voters approved a ballot measure enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution, and it wasn’t close at 56% to 43%. The Democratic Pennsylvania state Supreme Court candidate, Daniel McCaffery, also ran on abortion and promised to defend “voting rights” if Mr. Trump tries to overturn the next election as he did in 2020. He said he was running for “the policy court,” and he won in a rout.

The sobering message for Republicans is that they’re losing on abortion, and the choices are unpalatable compromises or more nights in the political wilderness. The results suggest that the GOP’s Nikki Haley, who has said that a federal 15-week limit on abortion is political fantasy, is right if the GOP is going to win among suburbanites and independents.

***
Democrats racked up these wins even though President Biden’s approval rating is down near 40%. The immediate effect of Tuesday’s results was to let Mr. Biden off the media hook for those awful poll numbers, as White House spinners say abortion and MAGA are all Mr. Biden needs to win in 2024. They might be right, though Democrats are still taking an enormous risk given that Mr. Biden must endure another campaign year after he turns 81 on Nov. 20 and is in obvious decline.

But elections, not polls, are the measure of political success, and Republicans have the bigger problem. Mr. Trump’s partisans often claim he is realigning the party to include more working-class voters. That’s true, but so far that has been more than offset by the flight of moderates and suburban women from the GOP.

DougMacG

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Re: Biggest DeSantis backer flips to Trump
« Reply #853 on: November 08, 2023, 07:25:34 PM »
I look forward to hearing the impressions of those who watched the debate.

ccp

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debate watch
« Reply #854 on: November 08, 2023, 08:50:09 PM »
debate much better with fewer people and less interrupting each other and less noise from the crowd

I liked Tim Scott, but all were good except Vivek who makes occasional good points but then talks too much and becomes insulting to others
though I enjoyed his insults to MSM and Rhonda McDaniel :))

my
post debate

conclusion

my choice  1st DeSantis
                 2nd Scott
                 3rd Haley
                 4th Trump
                 5th Christie
                 Vivek I am leaving off the table

still hoping for something to happen to Trump so he drops out.

His only chance to win remains the same:

the hope that more people dislike the Dem more than him which is

hard to do but the Dems are so bad it is possible it appears.

 NBC was fair and mostly ok, except possibly for choice of questions
such as going wild with abortion question of all candidates so the Dem operatives can study the answers but I guess it makes sense since abortion is hurting our side
Some post interviewers especially some Democrat woman on NBC had a hard time suppressing her disgust with the  post debate interview answers
she did not like.

clearly they learned from the mistakes of the first 2 debates and having 5 instead of 8 made it easier.

I notice Breitbart only mentions the whole thing in a negative way while telling us how great Trumps rally was to his usual lies

10s of thousands of people present when the whole partly empty stadium only holds ~ 5,000

I still fear he will drag us into the garbage can

agree with PJ media

From PJMEdias Downey

Never Mind the Economy — It's Abortion, Stupid!

and they will use the MSM to endlessly push this.












« Last Edit: November 08, 2023, 09:08:08 PM by ccp »

Crafty_Dog

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Rove
« Reply #855 on: November 09, 2023, 05:14:10 AM »
Voters Want Anyone but Trump or Biden
Neither looks good in the latest polls. Both parties should consider alternatives for the 2024 presidential election.
By
Karl Rove
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Nov. 8, 2023 5:30 pm ET


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Wonder Land: Citing the president’s age lets Democrats off the hook for the political failure of his economic policies. Images: AP/AFP/EPA/Getty Images Composite: Mark Kelly
As Democrats savor their victories in Tuesday’s Ohio abortion referendum, Kentucky governor’s race and Virginia and New Jersey legislative contests, they might be tempted to ignore the implications of a Nov. 3 New York Times/Siena College poll that shows Donald Trump beating Joe Biden in five of six 2024 battleground states. Mr. Trump lost all six in 2020.

Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden by 5 points in Arizona, 6 in Georgia, 5 in Michigan, 10 in Nevada and 4 in Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden beats Mr. Trump only in Wisconsin, by 2 points. Among the combined six-state sample of 3,662 registered voters, Mr. Trump leads by four points, 48% to 44%. If the 2024 election plays out this way—adjusting for reapportionment but otherwise assuming other states stay the same—Mr. Trump would flip the White House, winning 302 electoral votes to Mr. Biden’s 236. Last time it was 232 Trump, 306 Biden.

The poll shows a real risk for Mr. Biden from three blocs critical to his 2020 victory and his hopes for a 2024 repeat—young, Latino and black voters. His drop among these groups is driven by poor approval numbers on key issues—especially the economy—and a widespread feeling that he’s too old (71% of respondents agreed) and doesn’t have the “mental sharpness” to be president (62%).

Team Biden’s response was predictable and anemic. Campaign manager Julia Chavez Rodriguez emailed supporters to say polls a year before the election “are not predictive” before asking for a $25 donation. Spokesman Kevin Munoz opined that “predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later,” then said a Gallup poll had Barack Obama trailing Mitt Romney by 8 points a year before the 2012 election. Actually, Mr. Obama’s overall numbers were much better than that: He led Mr. Romney 46% to 44.3% on Nov. 7, 2011, in the RealClearPolitics average.

Mr. Obama also had advantages Mr. Biden doesn’t. The public saw Mr. Obama as a strong leader—young, energetic, mentally sharp and a much better and more natural political talent than Mr. Biden. He prosecuted his argument that Mr. Romney was a heartless plutocrat from a position of strength. Mr. Biden is operating from a position of extreme weakness. It will be much harder for him to take Mr. Trump down.

There was more dangerous news in the Times/Siena poll for both parties’ front-runners. Though not as well-known as Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley beats Mr. Biden in all six battlegrounds now. In four states, her margins are wider than Mr. Trump’s: She leads Mr. Biden by 7 points in Arizona, 3 in Georgia, 10 in Michigan and Pennsylvania, 6 in Nevada, and 13 in Wisconsin. Among the combined six states, Ms. Haley leads by 8 points (46% to 38%), twice Mr. Trump’s margin.

Mr. Biden may think he can caricature Ms. Haley as “ultra-MAGA,” but the Times/Siena survey shows voters know the difference between the GOP and Mr. Trump. A generic Republican beats Mr. Biden by even bigger margins in every battleground state, leading the Democrat by 14 to 18 points in each one. When all six are combined, the generic GOP candidate’s lead over Mr. Biden is 16 points (52% to 36%), four times Mr. Trump’s.

This suggests Republicans could score a historic victory next year if they run a new face. Apparently voters like what they see as the GOP’s values on the economy, defense, immigration, crime and the national debt. Democratic messaging mavens can try casting a fresh Republican as a Jan. 6 insurrectionist, an election-denying fabulist, a demagogic white supremacist. But voters wouldn’t be responding so positively in polls if they thought “Republican” was synonymous with all that nonsense.

Democrats are right to be scared, but Republicans should be concerned, too. Both party’s front-runners have enormous weaknesses. Joe and Jill Biden are deluding themselves if they believe only he can defeat Mr. Trump. But the GOP leader could sink his own campaign with his constant trashing of his intra-party rivals and their supporters. Turned off, they could fail to turn out or even turn away from the GOP.

Neither party’s front-runner will be easily dislodged. But if no changes are made, Americans will get the worst dumpster fire of a campaign in history. It doesn’t have to be this way, and everyone but Messrs. Trump and Biden has good reason to try changing it. The party that picks a fresh face will likely win the White House.

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ
« Reply #856 on: November 09, 2023, 05:25:12 AM »
Nikki Haley Stands Out on Foreign Policy at the Republican Debate
Christie is also strong, but DeSantis hedges, and Ramaswamy goes 1930s isolationist.
By
The Editorial Board
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Nov. 9, 2023 12:20 am ET


The third Republican presidential debate Wednesday night was useful in many ways, and especially in revealing the emerging GOP fault line on foreign policy. Nikki Haley and Chris Christie stood out for supporting Israel and Ukraine and scoring President Biden for weakness that invited aggression from adversaries. Vivek Ramaswamy showed himself to be a full-throated isolationist, while Ron DeSantis and Tim Scott were hedgers, especially on aiding Ukraine.


Front-runner Donald Trump again was a no-show as he tries to persuade everyone that the campaign is over before anyone votes. His foreign-policy views have turned in a more isolationist direction since 2020, to the extent he’s clear about anything. His main argument is that no wars began while he was President, so no wars will begin if he’s elected again.

Oh, and he’d end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours.” The clear implication is that he’d do that by cutting off Ukraine and giving Vladimir Putin a large chunk of that country.

Mr. Ramaswamy went further and declared that Ukraine isn’t worth defending. He spun a series of falsehoods, insults and half-truths about Ukraine, including an apparent implication that its President, Volodymyr Zelensky, might be a Nazi.

Ukraine “celebrated a Nazi in its ranks—the comedian in cargo pants, a man called Zelensky—doing it in their own ranks,” Mr. Ramaswamy said in the debate. Press reports later said his campaign said the candidate was referring to someone other than Mr. Zelensky. But Mr. Ramaswamy surely knows that one of Vladimir Putin’s propaganda points is that Ukraine is run by Nazis.

Mr. Ramaswamy also claimed that parts of eastern Ukraine now occupied by Russia haven’t even been part of Ukraine since 2014. Well, yes, but that’s because Russia armed breakaway militias that took up arms against the Kyiv government, and later Moscow held fake elections and eventually annexed the region.

Mr. Ramaswamy used a slur pulled from the 1930s history of isolationism by denouncing that “bloodthirsty members of both parties” have a “hunger” for war and get rich off it. If Mr. Ramaswamy believes this, he should be running as an antiwar, left-wing Democrat.

We relate Mr. Ramaswamy’s views at this length not because he has a chance to win the nomination. After an initial burst of support as he stuck to domestic issues, he has faded in the polls as he has shown that he is out of his depth in a time of multiplying threats.

Ms. Haley, on the other hand, benefits from her experience as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. When aid to Israel came up, she rightly said that Iran is behind the militias attacking Israel and U.S. bases in the region. She also noted that Russia, China and Iran are working together as an “unholy alliance” against our allies and U.S. interests.

“A strong America doesn’t start wars,” she said. “A strong America prevents wars.” Ms. Haley overall had another strong performance.

Mr. DeSantis also had his moments, and his promise of getting to a 355-ship Navy by the end of his first term is the right ambition. The Navy is now at about 290.

But he continues to equivocate on aid to Ukraine in a way that pales next to Ms. Haley’s clear conviction. He won’t say he’d cut Ukraine off altogether, but he hedges by saying that Europe should do more when several countries are now contributing more as a share of GDP; that the war should end (has he talked to Mr. Putin?); and that he won’t send U.S. troops to Ukraine (which he wasn’t asked and which no one has proposed to do).


Mr. Trump is leading the field by a mile, and thus the press corps tends to dismiss these debates as irrelevant. But they are helpful in sorting out the views and preparation of the candidates. That’s especially important on national security as the world’s rogues are on the march and the U.S. is unprepared.

ccp

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agree mostly with analyses
« Reply #857 on: November 09, 2023, 06:20:33 AM »
good *real* analyses of the debate CD.


I am surprised that Tim Scott did not get better reviews.
Except for the last sentence of his presentation (something about Christain values - while not wrong - came off as out of place) I thought he did well.

Seems like the Bush crowd loves Nikki.  I would place her higher if she were stronger on immigration.

I would be surprised if vivek does NOT fall off after debate and apparently will be surprised Tim does not move up as I have not read any other review that agrees with me that he was good.



ccp

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Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2024
« Reply #859 on: November 09, 2023, 06:45:17 AM »
I missed the first 20 minutes of the debate.  Herewith some random impressions:

a) ALL of them have seriously raised their games;

b) Tim Scott is a good man, but what is a/the reason to vote for him?  As a vaxx against the attacks of racial Marxism?  For his advocacy of a federal standard of abortion (again, what basis in the C for doing so?)?  IIRC he was the one who made the grown-up point about being able to supply/fight in three theaters of war.

c) Vivek is super bright and made some subtle and perceptive points that show some real thinking-- naturally they went over the heads of pretty much everyone.  Unfortunately, he is far too impressed with himself and fearlessly leaps through the portal into the dimension of specious and condescending glibness- with some unpleasant cheap shots thrown in.  The snarky crack about him in the first debate about him being our Obama far too often is dead on.

d) Agreed that Haley is a Bushie.  Should she become president my prediction is she will be quite weak on culture wars, enforcing the border, deporting the illegals, etc.  Brings zero to the issue of election integrity.

She gets the Axis of Evil thing, but lacks humility on how much we (Hillary, State Dept, Blinken, Joe & Hunter) had to do with provoking the war with Russia.  She lacks humility on what seems to be the fact-- this war has become a WW1 meatgrinder stalemate.  Not implausible that there is A LOT of "take the money and run" going on.   

She had the courage to take on entitlements IIRC.

e) IMHO DeSantis far and away remains the best on domestic issues AND THE EXECUTIVE COMPETENCE TO MAKE IT HAPPEN.  Very impressed with him in this regard.  He continues to mumble with regard to Ukraine but seems OK on the rest of geopolitics and is very clear and very good on China.  Not sure how/why but somehow he does not inspire.

f) There was substantial discussion about entitlements.  Some manned up (Christie of course, Haley?) but I am not remembering how the rest answered.  Trump of course is a firm panderer on this subject.

g) I was expecting hideousness from NBC, but they were not awful.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2023, 06:48:53 AM by Crafty_Dog »

DougMacG

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Re: WSJ
« Reply #860 on: November 09, 2023, 07:12:13 AM »
Nikki Haley Stands Out on Foreign Policy at the Republican Debate
Christie is also strong, but DeSantis hedges, and Ramaswamy goes 1930s isolationist.
WSJ Editorial Board
--------------------------

Haley has identified herself as 100% hawk while the party has gone 50% for no assistance whatsoever to Ukraine.  Is nuanced wrong on that?

From the article:
"Mr. DeSantis also had his moments, and his promise of getting to a 355-ship Navy by the end of his first term is the right ambition. The Navy is now at about 290."

(Doug). Isn't that the exact focus we need to deter and or fight a war over Taiwan in the South China Sea?

(WSJ continued) " But he continues to equivocate on aid to Ukraine in a way that pales next to Ms. Haley’s clear conviction. He won’t say he’d cut Ukraine off altogether..."

(Doug). That is pretty much my view.  No blank check, but we can play a role in the resistance, being a thorn in Putin's plan as long as that is what the Ukrainian people want.

Haley would have sent enough support for Ukraine to win the war at the start.  Really?  Enough arms, troops, training to defeat Russia (rather than keep this war contained in Ukraine)?

What would be the risks, consequences and scale of that? I thought we had some fear of major nuclear powers.
------------
I heard the ending on radio and some clips, did not see any of it.

I like what Crafty wrote:  (DeSantis) "far and away remains the best on domestic issues AND THE EXECUTIVE COMPETENCE TO MAKE IT HAPPEN.  Very impressed with him in this regard."

No he has not caught on or inspired (yet) but if this was a race for second place he has been quite  steady and consistent. Flashiest probably isn't my main criteria (but winning is).

Can you win and can you get it done.  He hasn't demonstrated he can win (nationally) but is the most likely to get it done if elected.

Trump, if he wins, will be a mere pause in the march to Leftism.  It will be all about him and he is officially running for final term, lame duck status. DeSantis is running for a change of direction in the country we so badly need.

I am waiting for the next shoe to drop. Trump, Biden seem to need each other.  Once Biden is out, or Trump convicted of something, anything, the dynamic changes, probably too late.

DougMacG

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Re: next debate
« Reply #861 on: November 09, 2023, 07:22:02 AM »
On NewsNation

Dec 6   7 - 9 PM

https://www.al.com/news/2023/11/megyn-kelly-to-moderate-next-republican-presidential-debate-at-university-of-alabama.html

Megyn Kelly, yes, also Eliana Johnson, Free Beacon Editor, is VERY good. (Daughter of Scott Johnson, Powerline blog founder who took down Dan Rather. )

Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2024
« Reply #862 on: November 09, 2023, 07:35:20 AM »
Would love to see a Trump-DeSantis ticket.  If Trump is knocked out (e.g. state felony conviction?) Then DeSantis steps in.

DougMacG

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Re: 2024
« Reply #863 on: November 09, 2023, 07:41:24 AM »
Would love to see a Trump-DeSantis ticket.  If Trump is knocked out (e.g. state felony conviction?) Then DeSantis steps in.

Same state.  Very hard for either to change their residency.

DougMacG

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2023 election analysis, Sean Trende
« Reply #864 on: November 09, 2023, 07:45:14 AM »
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/11/09/post-election_analysis_virginia_ohio_kentucky_and_mississippi_150035.html

Bottom line, local circumstances, not much for significant change going forward.

(Trump will win Kentucky, Mississippi, Ohio and lose Virginia, Minnesota etc.

ccp

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Re: 2024
« Reply #865 on: November 09, 2023, 08:03:08 AM »
"Would love to see a Trump-DeSantis ticket."

only if DeSantis gets down on his knees and privately and PUBLICALLY begs for forgiveness

and only if Trump - who is always vengeful would grant forgiveness

neither will happen

I don't think De Santis should tarnish himself with Trump frankly
but that said we are running out of time to beat back " Open Society"

DougMacG

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Dick Morris, Biden will drop out before the convention
« Reply #866 on: November 09, 2023, 08:39:51 AM »
https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/dick-morris-joe-biden-democrats/2023/11/08/id/1141468/

It's not that Morris knows, but this makes sense, solves almost all their problems.

There are a lot of reasons Joe doesn't want to be lame duck yet and the powers that be trust the insider elites more than they trust the primary voters.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2024
« Reply #867 on: November 09, 2023, 02:12:26 PM »
That is a very astute analysis.

I would modify it to say upon withdrawal, Biden will pledge his delegates to Nancy's Newphew.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2024
« Reply #868 on: November 09, 2023, 07:36:10 PM »
The DeSantis-Trump Social Security Punt
They refuse to reform programs that everyone knows are unsustainable.
By The Editorial Board
Nov. 9, 2023 6:40 pm ET




Review and Outlook: In the third Republican presidential debate on Nov. 8, 2023, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie, Tim Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy revealed the emerging GOP fault line on foreign policy. Images: Getty Images/Reuters Composite: Mark Kelly

Donald Trump wasn’t on stage at the GOP debate on Wednesday, though he seemed to occupy Ron DeSantis’s mind. That would explain the Florida Governor’s punt on reforming entitlements that ruled out even gradually raising the Social Security retirement age.


The former President this spring lambasted Mr. DeSantis for supporting Paul Ryan’s entitlement reforms while in Congress. “DeSantis is colluding with his globalist handlers to go full Never Trump in order to gaslight the people into thinking that Medicare and Social Security should be ripped away from hard-working Americans,” the Trump campaign declared.

Two decades ago Mr. Trump supported raising the retirement age to 70 and creating private retirement accounts. But he now rejects even modest changes to Social Security. When the subject of entitlement reform came up during the debate, most candidates bobbed and weaved like Muhammad Ali.

Vivek Ramaswamy said the solution to America’s entitlement problems is “sacrificing foreign wars.” Sorry, abandoning national defense won’t save Social Security. In the past two years alone, Social Security benefits have increased by $219 billion—about the size of the Navy’s budget last year.

The truth tellers on stage, Nikki Haley and Chris Christie, argued for gradually raising the retirement age for younger Americans to slow the growth in Social Security spending, which this past fiscal year added up to $1.3 trillion. Mr. DeSantis dismissed the idea, saying “when life expectancy is declining, I don’t see how you could raise it the other direction.”

Life expectancy did decline in 2021 to 76.4 years from 78.8 in 2019, but the drop owed almost entirely to Covid and drug overdoses. The latter have been increasing among young people for more than two decades, but that has no bearing on how long seniors can expect to live and in what condition.

Covid’s impact on deaths was a blip like the 1918 Spanish influenza, which caused life expectancy to fall by more than 10 years. So-called excess deaths this year have returned to pre-pandemic trends, and therefore life expectancy for seniors should too. At age 65, Americans could expect to live 19.6 more years in 2019, up from 16.4 in 1980.

Yet the Social Security retirement age has increased by only two years since the early 1980s when Democratic House Speaker Tip O’Neill cut a deal with Ronald Reagan to shore up the program. The compromise gradually raised the retirement age for future generations to 67 from 65 and increased payroll taxes.

Life expectancy was 61.7 years in 1935 when Social Security was established. If the retirement age had increased in line with life expectancy, it would now be about 80 years. No candidate is proposing to raise the retirement age to 80, but Ms. Haley was right to say it should better reflect increasing life expectancy.

Like Medicare and Medicaid, Social Security will have to be reformed eventually because its current course is unsustainable. But denialism by GOP candidates will make it that much harder to sell modest benefit adjustments to voters, giving Democrats more leverage to demand bigger tax increases. Is that what Messrs. DeSantis and Trump want?


Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2024
« Reply #869 on: November 10, 2023, 03:51:44 AM »
The DeSantis-Trump Social Security Punt
They refuse to reform programs that everyone knows are unsustainable.
By
The Editorial Board
Follow
Nov. 9, 2023 6:40 pm ET

Donald Trump wasn’t on stage at the GOP debate on Wednesday, though he seemed to occupy Ron DeSantis’s mind. That would explain the Florida Governor’s punt on reforming entitlements that ruled out even gradually raising the Social Security retirement age.

The former President this spring lambasted Mr. DeSantis for supporting Paul Ryan’s entitlement reforms while in Congress. “DeSantis is colluding with his globalist handlers to go full Never Trump in order to gaslight the people into thinking that Medicare and Social Security should be ripped away from hard-working Americans,” the Trump campaign declared.

Two decades ago Mr. Trump supported raising the retirement age to 70 and creating private retirement accounts. But he now rejects even modest changes to Social Security. When the subject of entitlement reform came up during the debate, most candidates bobbed and weaved like Muhammad Ali.

Vivek Ramaswamy said the solution to America’s entitlement problems is “sacrificing foreign wars.” Sorry, abandoning national defense won’t save Social Security. In the past two years alone, Social Security benefits have increased by $219 billion—about the size of the Navy’s budget last year.

The truth tellers on stage, Nikki Haley and Chris Christie, argued for gradually raising the retirement age for younger Americans to slow the growth in Social Security spending, which this past fiscal year added up to $1.3 trillion. Mr. DeSantis dismissed the idea, saying “when life expectancy is declining, I don’t see how you could raise it the other direction.”

Life expectancy did decline in 2021 to 76.4 years from 78.8 in 2019, but the drop owed almost entirely to Covid and drug overdoses. The latter have been increasing among young people for more than two decades, but that has no bearing on how long seniors can expect to live and in what condition.

Covid’s impact on deaths was a blip like the 1918 Spanish influenza, which caused life expectancy to fall by more than 10 years. So-called excess deaths this year have returned to pre-pandemic trends, and therefore life expectancy for seniors should too. At age 65, Americans could expect to live 19.6 more years in 2019, up from 16.4 in 1980.

Yet the Social Security retirement age has increased by only two years since the early 1980s when Democratic House Speaker Tip O’Neill cut a deal with Ronald Reagan to shore up the program. The compromise gradually raised the retirement age for future generations to 67 from 65 and increased payroll taxes.

Life expectancy was 61.7 years in 1935 when Social Security was established. If the retirement age had increased in line with life expectancy, it would now be about 80 years. No candidate is proposing to raise the retirement age to 80, but Ms. Haley was right to say it should better reflect increasing life expectancy.

Like Medicare and Medicaid, Social Security will have to be reformed eventually because its current course is unsustainable. But denialism by GOP candidates will make it that much harder to sell modest benefit adjustments to voters, giving Democrats more leverage to demand bigger tax increases. Is that what Messrs. DeSantis and Trump want?


DougMacG

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Re: Poll: DeSantis won the debate, most didn't watch
« Reply #871 on: November 12, 2023, 06:37:59 AM »
https://themessenger.com/politics/desantis-won-debate-but-nearly-70-of-republicans-didnt-watch-poll

Finding more saying either DeSantis won or that DeSantis and Haley were the winners of this debate (and all of them) .

https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-haley-desantis-look-strongest-in-gop-debate-2938091/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=topnews&utm_source=opinion_editorials&utm_term=EDITORIAL%3A%20Haley%2C%20DeSantis%20look%20strongest%20in%2

It's not a serious comment anymore to say Trump won by not being there, that he is winning back voters by hiding in the basement. I know he is out doing large rallies, what we call preaching to the choir, but I also remember him choking the whole year of 2020 and in his Biden debate in particular.

He is showing insecurity, not confidence, and mentioned before, sitting on a lead is how good  sports teams lose championships.

Meanwhile I wish the entire electorate would watch DeSantis v. Newsom debate the two competing models of government.

Newsom, I assume, is too smug to know he should duck out of this one.

DougMacG

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2024, Joe Manchin
« Reply #872 on: November 12, 2023, 07:15:22 AM »
Joe Manchin, Big D Democrat, of the so called "no labels" "movement" , he will be 77, shouldn't he be somebody's VP choice - for "gravitas" , not the leader of a new generation?

I hope he runs.  He's a Democrat from the beginning to the end.  They hold the majority right now because he never switched.  He's not running for reelection because he would lose as a Democrat.  In a sense we're lucky he didn't switch, he would have been a thorn in our side all this time.

The so-called Centrists mock and deride the 'extremes', like people who favor any individual liberty, but the so called centrists are a self righteous bunch themselves.  Why is the correct answer always in the middle?  Abort half a baby.  Run a one trillion dollar deficit.  Defend half our southern border. Pay half our military.  Mandate half as many EVs. How about half as many biological men screwing up women's sports or sexualing only half the kids in Kindergarten through third grade?

These "centrists" are never held up to scrutiny and they aren't all of one mindset. But where they might be is right where most Democrats were when they thought they were voting for moderate Joe and got this far Left cabal soon to be headed by Kamala from the Hamas, and defund-the-Police, let-crime-be, wing of the Democrat Party.

Give them a choice.  (And not a "ranked choice"!)
---------------------

Well look at that, Rep Jim ("we all knew") Clyburn agrees with me.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/11/opinions/third-party-run-is-a-risk-we-cant-afford-clyburn/index.html
« Last Edit: November 12, 2023, 10:49:28 AM by DougMacG »

ccp

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Re: 2024
« Reply #873 on: November 12, 2023, 09:49:23 AM »
"He is showing insecurity, not confidence, and mentioned before, sitting on a lead is how good sports teams lose championships."

and how good companies slide.

MSFT AMZN AAPL NVDA CEOs all keep an element of paranoia needed to be sure to CONTINUE keeping in front.

It appears he has won most of the UFC crowd  :wink:

"  Why is the correct answer always in the middle? "

Good question but I guess from a practical point of view it is to reach those who decide every national election

the minority who can vote either party depending on what their thoughts are at election time.










ccp

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Tim out
« Reply #874 on: November 13, 2023, 06:51:49 AM »
God bless Tim !   good man .

I don't know if Trump would ask him to join his team. I don't think he should if he does.

Better to keep on being Senator and maybe make another run in future for his sake.

For me, it is DeSantis alone.

Haley is now my second choice.  But agree she is rino lite .

Christie is qualified but he is Christie.  Too much baggage and also rino lite.

I would take Haley over Trump.  Trump goes too far.  Drudge has him calling opponents "vermin" and yes that is clearly Hitler like.
OTOH Haley is too Bush like I think.  All in all I want to win and it seems Haley would have better chance of winning than Trump. 

Boy, would the first female President turning out to be a Republican piss off the LEFT enough.  Glass ceiling broken by a , a , a "far right" women.

That would annoy the libs ..... Hillary would have her eternal frown.   


ccp

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Schlichter : Ronna McDaniel = resign!
« Reply #875 on: November 13, 2023, 08:13:13 AM »
https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2023/11/13/resign-ronna-n2631083

I keep scratching my head as to why she is still head of RNC.

Funny how Trump likes winners yet will not call for her being fired.

The past few times she has been on cable, such as with Laura recently she had not impressed me at all.
Always excuses with some get the Repubs to vote early only as the new strategy.

As for only one Repub lawyer mentioned in Kurt's piece I would add we are outgunned as most lawyers are crats to begin with;  I guess at least 3/4 I think. So we are out gunned on the legal front.




DougMacG

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Re: Tim out
« Reply #876 on: November 13, 2023, 08:19:24 AM »
Yes, God Bless Tim.  I'm glad he is conservative and glad he is on our side.

I would love to have him become a great leader of our nation..

The leap from anywhere else to President is a giant one.  In this cycle we have two candidates that are essentially incumbents running.  Tim Scott is running with legislative experience also against two three counting Christie that are / were two term Governors - namely executive experience for an executive position.  DeSantis has legislative experience, second term Governor, and served in the military.

On the point of race and politics, we have some GREAT black conservatives in this country and Tim Scott is one of them.  My observation is that their biggest fans are mostly white and already conservative.  Our hope is that one of these people will break through and bring blacks and minorities in the millions with them to the conservative side but that's not what has happened.  Oddly it's actually Trump who started to break through in that regard, and it may be too little, too late.


ccp

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Kudlow had good show Monday night
« Reply #878 on: November 13, 2023, 10:06:52 PM »
more issues then simply pounding the table - "we need more growth"

pointed out Haley playing the class warfare card - me -> bad

with guest Steve Hilton - believe the GOP should ignore abortion or at least not campaign on it.

 me - not sure - fine with me if they ignore it - but the LEFT will do nothing but speak about it 24/7365 so not sure how to totally ignore it since it will be front and center in our faces thanks to MSM

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/why-would-we-punish-the-people-who-vote-republican-steve-hilton/vi-AA1jT04S

ccp

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FWIW the 2020 election polls on Nov 3 2020
« Reply #879 on: November 15, 2023, 07:23:57 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/presidential-polls

Biden did win pop vote by ~ 5 mill as per the count

but barely won in the battle ground states

Now polls have Trump up by ~ 2 %

I don't think because Trump up by much but more that Biden is down.


Crafty_Dog

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NRO: DeSantis vs. Haley
« Reply #880 on: November 17, 2023, 11:23:03 AM »
After Scott's Exit, DeSantis and Haley Take the Gloves Off


With Senator Tim Scott (R., S.C.) out of the 2024 presidential race, voters can expect the battle between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley to heat up, strategists say, with the former South Carolina governor well positioned to win over Scott’s supporters.

 

The two are expected to duke it out to become the leading non-Trump candidate. DeSantis came out swinging this week, going after Haley over everything from her response to the riots in the wake of George Floyd’s death to her views on immigration to her recent comments about the need for verification for social-media users.

 

The Florida governor accused Haley of caving to the Left’s narrative on the Black Lives Matter riots.

 

"She has never fought any big fight on our behalf as conservatives and won any big fight. Anytime the guns come out, anytime the Left does, she cuts and runs," he said during an appearance on a South Carolina radio show.

 

In the days after Floyd’s murder, Haley tweeted: “It’s important to understand that the death of George Floyd was personal and painful for many. In order to heal, it needs to be personal and painful for everyone.”

 

“I called out the National Guard,” DeSantis said. “I said I'm standing with police. She was tweeting that it needed to be personal and painful for every single person. And I'm thinking to myself, why does that need to be personal and painful for you or me, we had nothing to do with it? It just shows an example of her adopting this left-wing mindset and accepting the narrative.”

 

He also took aim at Haley for dismissing a bill, while she was serving as South Carolina governor, to prevent biological boys from using girls’ restrooms. She called the bill “unnecessary” when it was introduced in 2016.

 

"In Florida, we said girls and women should be protected in bathrooms and locker rooms," DeSantis said. "You should not have boys barging in, men going in there. It's not appropriate. And so we did that without any question. Of course, we're going to do that.”

 

The Florida governor also fired shots at Haley over her reaction to his feud with Disney.

 

"She criticized me for standing up for kids and the innocence of their curriculum against Disney where they wanted the sexualized curriculum in elementary school. So I stood up for parents, I stood up for kids, she sided with a woke corporation. So that is just I think what you see in terms of that, it's just par for the course," he said. "She will kowtow to elite opinions, the media, and big corporations. That is how she falls down. You can pretty much set your clock to it."

 

Later on Tuesday, the DeSantis campaign called Haley “a Democrat in sheep’s clothing” on immigration, claiming she “opposed the border wall" and that she "supports unlimited immigration into the United States  — or at least until big corporations tell her otherwise.”

 

The statement came in response to a New York Post article that noted Haley said in 2015 that a border wall alone would not address illegal immigration and that other measures like drones and in-person surveillance would be needed. It also noted that, in a 2019 podcast appearance, she said, “Immigrants are the fabric of America. It’s what makes us great. We need as many immigrants as we can. We need the skills, we need the talent, we need the culture. We need all of that.”

 

Haley was widely panned for suggesting on Tuesday that “every person on social media should be verified, by their name.”

 

“That’s, first of all, it’s a national-security threat. When you do that, all of a sudden, people have to stand by what they say,” she said. “And it gets rid of the Russian bots, the Iranian bots and the Chinese bots. And then you’re gonna get some civility, when people know their name is next to what they say.”

 

DeSantis blasted the comments in a post on X: “You know who were anonymous writers back in the day? Alexander Hamilton, John Jay, and James Madison when they wrote the Federalist Papers. They were not 'national security threats,' nor are the many conservative Americans across the country who exercise their Constitutional right to voice their opinions without fear of being harassed or canceled by the school they go to or the company they work for. Haley's proposal to ban anonymous speech online — similar to what China recently did — is dangerous and unconstitutional. It will be dead on arrival in my administration.”

 

After Haley received widespread criticism over her remarks, her campaign appeared to walk them back.

 

“Russia, China, and Iran are engaging in wide-scale information warfare. Ignoring this national security threat is dangerous and naive," the campaign told me on Wednesday. "Social media companies need to do a better job of verifying users as human in order to crack down on anonymous foreign bots. We can do this while protecting America’s right to free speech and Americans who post anonymously.”

 

The campaign added that Haley’s main concern is “cracking down on Chinese, Russian, Iranian, etc. bots that engage in massive online information warfare,” leaving out any mention of her vow to combat online incivility by forcing social-media companies to eliminate anonymity.

 

DeSantis’s onslaught comes as strategists say the Florida governor will need to step up his attacks against Haley as she shows sustained momentum in the race and stands to benefit even more from Scott’s exit.

 

“I think that DeSantis has to be aggressive against Haley,” GOP strategist John Feehery told me.

 

“I think DeSantis largely ignored Haley, but I think that comes at his peril, I don't think he can ignore her anymore,” he said, adding that, while it isn’t a “done deal” for Haley to become the leading non-Trump candidate, she’ll likely become the chosen horse of the party's establishment wing from now on.

 

“Scott's well-liked in South Carolina, so I think that that's good for Haley and gives her a stronger rationale to donors that [she] can beat Trump in South Carolina," Feehery said. "I'm not sure if that's true, but that's what she's going to say, and it makes it a lot easier for her to make that case if Scott's out of the race.”

 

Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio told donors that Haley is the most likely candidate to benefit from Scott’s exit, specifically in Iowa, according to a memo obtained by Axios.

 

"Despite the narrative that the DeSantis team is trying to push, it's clear that other candidates dropping out is not causing voters to consolidate around him," the memo says.

 

The poll, conducted among a sample of 600 likely Republican caucus-goers from November 9 to 12 and commissioned by Trump’s MAGA INC. super PAC, found that 43 percent of Scott supporters picked Haley as their second choice. Twenty-two percent chose Trump and 16 percent chose DeSantis. Still, Scott was polling in the single digits, meaning he did not have significant support to pick up.

 

With Scott and former vice president Mike Pence having left the race, the big question remains who will the Evangelicals be looking toward, said South Carolina–based strategist Dave Wilson.

 

“Nikki Haley has very strong momentum going in her favor right now,” he said, but he suggested that DeSantis could deploy his wife, Casey DeSantis, who has a “great ability to speak to that audience, much better than he does on the campaign trail.”

 

“I think Tim Scott dropping out is enough of a momentum to make people potentially revisit their appreciation for Nikki Haley one more time” he said, noting she has been pulling the “never-Trumper”-style Republican voters.

 

“Nikki Haley has an ability to come back to her home state and woo those Tim Scott voters back, keeping in mind she was the person who appointed Tim Scott to the U.S. Senate,” he said, adding that DeSantis, for his part, should get out to South Carolina more often.

 

The Haley campaign plans to spend $10 million on TV, radio, and digital ads in Iowa and New Hampshire beginning in December.

DougMacG

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2024, Haley and DeSantis should debate
« Reply #881 on: November 17, 2023, 11:24:33 AM »
https://thehill.com/media/4312952-desantis-ingraham-haley-direct-debate/

This might be a good opportunity for the top candidates to leave the RNC and MSM behind. 

I think Haley is kind of a flame thrower but otherwise this is an excellent opportunity to re-frame things. 

At this moment, Trump is far and away the leader and only these two people have a chance to catch him.  Let's showcase them.  They should have very serious and very thorough and thoughtful debates, maybe a series of them if they are serious.

From the article:
“He [DeSantis] will debate Nikki Haley. He is set to debate Gavin Newsom. And if Trump finds the courage, Ron DeSantis will debate him too,”

Let's go!  They want media exposure.  Give the audience something to tune in for.  And don't limit viewing to one cable channel or show.  Open it up to everyone.



Crafty_Dog

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WT: All Reps beat Biden, Haley by biggest margin
« Reply #884 on: November 20, 2023, 03:15:41 AM »
New poll finds Biden trails all the leading Republican presidential primary candidates

BY MALLORY WILSON THE WASHINGTON TIMES

President Biden’s slide in the polls now puts him behind all of the top Republican candidates.

A poll from Marquette Law School shows former President Donald Trump leading Mr. Biden 52% to 48% and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ahead of the president 51% to 49%.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has the biggest lead over Mr. Biden with registered voters nationwide favoring her 55% to 45%.

Ms. Haley has been rising in the polls since the third GOP debate in Miami earlier this month. When likely voters are added into the mix, Ms. Haley leads the president by an even larger margin of 56% to 44%. Mr. Trump sees his support go down by 1 point from 51% to 49% and Mr. DeSantis’ support stays the same.

Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis still trail behind Mr. Trump in the GOP race. The former president grabs 54% of Republican voters, while the other two tie at 12%. The numbers show an increase in support for Ms. Haley since March, but a decline for Mr. DeSantis.

Mr. Biden turns 81 on Monday and is the oldest president in history. Voters have worried that he is too old to effectively serve another term.

The poll found that 57% of voters said the phrase “is too old to be president” describes Mr. Biden “very well,” while 23% said it fits him “somewhat well.”

Mr. Trump, 77, isn’t too far behind the president in age, but not as many voters consider him to be too old to serve as president. The poll found that 23% of voters said the phrase fit him “very well” and 28% said it fits him “somewhat well.”

The survey was conducted Nov. 2-7. The sample size for registered voters was 856 voters nationwide, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. The sample size for likely voters was 688 with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. For Republican/Republican-leaning voters, the sample size was 398 with a margin of error of plus or minus 6.6 percentage points

DougMacG

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Re: 2024
« Reply #885 on: November 20, 2023, 06:27:22 AM »
https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/iowa-crowd-cheers-nearly-nonstop-as-trump-seeks-to-wrap-up-gop-primary-5532317?utm_source=News&src_src=News&utm_campaign=breaking-2023-11-19-2&src_cmp=breaking-2023-11-19-2&utm_medium=email&est=AdsSQcPCc81j9alWws5owl8zXA%2FO1Hm1IcdntSAzxpEC%2FJE4x3eMJ0eYyNltfSSYcbfM

He is a master campaigner and has a very strong record to run on, pre-covid.

Trump:  "I think the reason we’re doing so well in the polls is that the people see it; they see it as a persecution of a political candidate," President Trump told the audience, referring to the 91 criminal charges he faces. "They see it as a continuation of the greatest witch hunt of all time."

(Doug). That's right but too bad that had to become the main criteria.

We thought the Left was picking our candidate for us by trying to remove him from the field.  Instead they are (again) picking our candidate for us by elevating him.

Nailed to the cross and comes back to life.  A certain religious group has been through this before.

ccp

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Haley's positions
« Reply #886 on: November 21, 2023, 06:06:09 AM »
annoying how abortion is at top of list of "issues that matter to people" and economy closer to bottom:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/where-nikki-haley-stands-on-the-issues-that-matter-to-voters/ar-AA1kg2uA?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=3f34aed1d80940768c0e7561dfe8e4fb&ei=11

I would not say she is rino, but still not sure she is fighting the LEFT enough.

primary race not close anyway.






DougMacG

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Re: view of a massive radical leftist for '24
« Reply #887 on: November 21, 2023, 08:15:41 AM »
Very bizarre and painful to read a hard core Leftist.  So much projection.  They are worried Republicans will steal the election.  How?  Make America great again is a dark and negative message??  Republicans are fascists??!!  Right while Democrat policies embrace the dictionary definition of fascism, and coincidentally the party is home to the wide open anti-semitism of our day.

A pollster who doesn't believe polls.  When they are against him.

Biden has done such a good job, if only people could see that.  He's wrong that Republicans can not possibly get more than 46% to favor a message of stop the insanity.

He hits on some truths.  Republicans have been decimated by the abortion issue.  And talk of 2024 being all Republican is premature, again.  Trump will motivate the anti-Trump voters.  Democrats who are disillusioned don't automatically become Republicans.  Republicans don't have a unified and coherent message.

On abortion, Democrats have won at every turn since Dobbs , framed only as a women's issue, but getting overconfident on that could come back to bite them.  For one thing Trump has laid off the issue, and for another, the closer you look at what late term abortion really is, the more inhumane and immoral it looks.  People who worry about the comfort of chickens in a chicken coop are defending the practice of imploding the head and sucking out the body of an unborn that looks a lot like a baby.  I don't think the electorate has fully considered both sides of it.

On the economy - and the border, nothing sells Republican policies like having Democrats in control.  With a year to go, Dems in power have a choice of moving toward 'R' policies or continuing with failure.  We see a head fake on border control but that won't stop the damage already in progress.  On the economy and excessive government spending, we are in the middle of a budget fight and we'll see where it leads.

My bet is the Dems in control cannot change their ways and that things only get worse.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2023, 09:26:13 AM by DougMacG »

DougMacG

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Financial Times: harsh take on Biden Harris
« Reply #888 on: November 21, 2023, 08:42:57 AM »
How about that reelection slogan, “After All We’ve Done For You” ?

I'm surprised to see such a ruthless take (below) in the FT.  No indication the author is conservative, but truth slips out.

He ends by saying at least one of the Biden, Harris team must go, but really he is saying both.

I'm assuming a handoff to Newsom is already in the works leaving, the author as the one out of the know.  Or maybe he knows and is laying the groundwork.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Biden can’t spin his way to re-election
The problem is the fundamental Democratic offering, not a failure to communicate
JANAN GANESH
Subscribe at ft.com

There are clever, well-meaning liberals who would have Joe Biden and Kamala Harris run for re-election on the slogan “After All We’ve Done For You”. According to their account of things, the president has given America an economic boom, infrastructure galore and other blessings that voters, hung up on such ephemera as the price of food, are failing to notice or appreciate. (“It’s not him. It’s us.”) The solution? That recourse of doomed governments everywhere: to communicate its achievements better.

This is worse than conceited. It is tactical public relations fluff. To prevent a second term of Donald Trump, Democrats must accept that what is going wrong is their basic proposition — an aged candidate, his unpopular running mate, the inflation he has overseen — not the framing or messaging of it.

The Democrats have had years to cultivate a successor to Biden. Donors, grassroots, apparatchiks, potential candidates and the man himself should have settled on, if not an individual, then a process for choosing one while governing. Instead, more out of inertia than calculation, the party is set to put a man who looks each and every one of his 81 years through the kind of grueling nationwide campaign that lockdowns spared him in 2020.

If he had a George HW Bush or even an Al Gore as vice-president, Biden’s frailty might not be so off-putting to voters. And so to the Democrats’ second un-spinnable problem. Harris is out of her element at this level of electoral politics. She was the first candidate of note to quit the last presidential primaries. Those who outlasted her included the mayor of Indiana’s fourth city. Pointing these things out when Biden selected her was, among liberals, thankless work.

Again, the instinct of Democrats is to lose themselves in comms-speak about the need to “relaunch” her, to give her issues to “own”, as though this were a gauche but high-potential rookie and not a person closing in on 60. Harris is about as good a politician as she will ever be, which mightn’t be quite good enough. That, given the actuarial odds that she will assume the highest office on Earth one day, is a fundamental problem, not a presentational snag.

There is something of the Versailles court about the Democratic elite. Politesse matters. People walk on eggshells around obvious losers. For the second time in a decade, the first being the coronation of Hillary Clinton in 2016, the Democrats are putting a flawed ticket in front of voters on the grounds that it would be bad form to disrupt the line of precedence. (I’d admire the institutionalism if the free world weren’t on the line.)

If messaging matters, think of the conflicting messages going out here. First: Trump is a threat to the republic. Second: the job of beating him should go to the default candidates, to avoid an internal fuss. But their ratings are dire? Ah, what are you going to do.

There is something else the Democrats can’t spin or present their way out of: the material experience of voters. Any president who oversaw high inflation would be in electoral trouble. But one who had passed vast spending bills, to which those price rises could be plausibly (even if speciously) attributed, should be doomed. It is a measure of Trump’s unattractiveness, and of public disquiet at the Republican erosion of abortion rights, that Biden is still competitive.

The Democrats’ main error since 2020, after the lack of succession planning, was to attempt an economic overhaul for which there was more demand from commentators than voters. Biden’s big-government reforms have been likened to Lyndon Johnson’s, even Franklin Roosevelt’s, but both those presidents won landslides. Biden’s win was smaller than either of Bill Clinton’s. It was never enough for an epochal rupture with “neoliberalism”. He should have been a transitional president whose ultimate service was removing Trump. As it is, he stands associated with the worst inflation that lots of Americans have known. Better communication? Democrats should consider that reminding voters of his free-spending record might implicate him even further in high retail prices.

Biden can claim to have been the best president elected this century: more honourable at home than Trump, less derelict abroad than Barack Obama, with nothing like George W Bush’s Iraq war to his name. But Americans next November have to decide who leads them for the following four years. The Democratic proposition — a man eight years older than US male life expectancy, with an unloved lieutenant — asks voters to accept too much risk. For the world’s sake, at least one half of that offering should be changed, not just sold better.

DougMacG

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2024, the question and the answer
« Reply #889 on: November 21, 2023, 09:09:37 AM »
Excerpt from The Hill, the question they fear:
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/4315849-democrats-fear-this-one-simple-question-will-doom-biden/
...
“Were you better off four years ago than you are now?”

This is a reverse of arguably the most important question ever asked in a presidential debate. During the final week of the 1980 presidential race between Democratic President Jimmy Carter and GOP nominee Ronald Reagan, the two candidates held their sole debate on October 28.

Reagan used his closing remarks to look into the camera and ask Americans the question — one that became the defining moment of the election: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”

He then followed with: “Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we’re as strong as we were four years ago?”

Now, the reverse of that question is the one Biden should fear most: “Were you better off four years ago than you are now?”

There is no doubt that former President Donald Trump and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will use variations of those questions to pummel Biden. And with good reason.

Tens of millions of Americans do believe they were much better off four years ago than now. Americans who know mortgage rates were at record lows; gasoline prices were well below three dollars per gallon; inflation was under control; our border was more secure; our major cities were not homeless encampments; crime was dramatically lower; and the world was more at peace.

To add insult to injury for President Biden, while confirming the worry of the Democratic operatives, the Financial Times just ran an article headlined “Only 14% of US voters say Joe Biden has made them better off.” Ouch.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2023, 09:11:42 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Desantis v Haley
« Reply #890 on: November 22, 2023, 01:03:34 PM »


DeSantis and Haley Play a Game of 'No You' on China while Trump Glides By


As the race for second place heats up, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis have begun to play a game of "Who was cozier with Chinese business while governor?"

 

At least $18 million has been spent in the presidential race on TV ads mentioning China, according to AdImpact data, with Republicans accounting for 90 percent of that spending. Nearly $26 million has been spent on digital ads on the topic, though Republicans account for just 58 percent of that spending.

 

The latest ammunition in the fight comes from a recent Miami Herald report that reveals that DeSantis and committees affiliated with him have received $340,000 from Xianbin Meng, the CEO of a Tampa refrigerant company with direct backing from China, companies associated with Meng, and the companies’ employees. Meng, the CEO of iGas USA, gave DeSantis more than $11,000 just three months ago.

 

DeSantis held a rally at iGas’s Tampa complex last year. A state-controlled Chinese company owns roughly a third of iGas.

 

Meng’s companies and employees have given more than $1.1 million in federal and state political contributions in the past five years. The report notes that the giving represents a “sharp increase” in political activity by the companies and employees.

 

The donations began as Congress weighed a bill to phase out the refrigerants that iGas imports from China. The bill passed, but Meng’s company has “had some success pushing for changes to the implementation of the law,” according to the report.

 

The DeSantis campaign dismissed the reporting as “silly in the face of his actions and record towards China as a governor.”

 

That record includes signing bills preventing sensitive data from being stored on CCP-owned or affiliated servers and banning access to CCP-affiliated apps like TikTok on government devices. The governor also signed legislation preventing Chinese Communist Party affiliates from buying land near military bases.

 

But the Haley campaign has blasted DeSantis for having stayed quiet when Cirrus Aircraft, a subsidiary of Aviation Industry Corp. (AVIC) of China, opened two new locations in Florida —  including one 12.7 miles away from the Naval Air Warfare Center Training Systems Division.

 

While the federal government hasn’t accused Cirrus of any wrongdoing, the U.S. imposed sanctions on AVIC in 2020 after finding it to be a possible national-security threat. AVIC makes fighter jets, helicopters, and drones for the Chinese military.

 

The DeSantis campaign told the New York Post that the governor “uniquely recognizes the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party and spent his governorship working to end pre-existing state ties with China and build up protections against future Chinese incursions.”

 

DeSantis press secretary Bryan Griffin then turned the attention toward Haley, who he said “spent her governorship courting Chinese businesses to South Carolina, calling them a friend, and failing to pursue corrective efforts to safeguard her state from the threat of the CCP.”

 

Under Haley’s leadership, Chinese investments in the Palmetto State more than doubled from $308 million in 2011 to almost $670 million in 2015, according to the Washington Post. Haley oversaw the greatest Chinese investment of any Republican governor in 2015, when adjusted for GDP, after having brought in more than $565 million in Chinese investment for the year. Haley oversaw a total of $1.43 billion in Chinese investment in the state.

 

The campaign defended the former governor’s record. “Every governor running for president tried to recruit Chinese businesses to their state. Nikki Haley did it ten years ago. Ron DeSantis is aggressively recruiting Chinese companies now and just this month he scrubbed the Florida government website of proof of his recruitment,” the campaign said in a statement to National Review.

 

“The question is who will take on China as Xi Jinping ups the ante, and the clear answer is Nikki Haley,” the statement added.

 

DeSantis and the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down have specifically seized on Haley’s role in recruiting a Chinese fiberglass company to the state, with the PAC claiming in an ad that she allowed the company to get “dangerously close” to the Fort Jackson military base and that she is “too dangerous to lead.”

 

China Jushi, a partially state-owned company, announced an agreement with Richland County in 2016 to bring a manufacturing plant to the county that would create 400 new jobs and invest $300 million in the region.

 

Haley celebrated the agreement at the time as a “huge win for our state.”

 

State-owned China National Building Material Company Limited owns almost 27 percent of China Jushi, according to the company's website. China Jushi has a Communist Party Committee with 618 members.

 

While the factory is roughly five miles from Fort Jackson, the Washington Post gave the Never Back Down ad “Three Pinocchios” over its claims about dangers. “There is no indication it is a spy center for China, as suggested by the ad’s use of the phrase ‘eyes and ears,’” the fact-check says.

 

The Never Back Down ad claims that Haley gave the company 197 acres of land for free. However, the contract involved only the county and the company and includes provisions that would require the company to pay back part of the land’s $4.9 million value if the company did not invest an expected amount of money or create an expected number of jobs.

 

The South Carolina Coordinating Council for Economic Development provided $7 million in incentives for the deal. The council is chaired by the state’s commerce secretary, who is appointed by the governor.

 

Asked during a campaign stop in Iowa last month why she "gave China thousands of acres of land in South Carolina,” Haley replied, “Don't believe what you read on the internet. We didn't sell any land to the Chinese. But, yes, I recruited a fiberglass company."

 

South Carolina governor Henry McMaster told reporters of China Jushi, “As far as anybody knows, they’ve caused no trouble and pose no threat.”

 

Haley said in 2012 that bringing Chinese companies to the state could help remind Americans what's it's like to have a "passion again" to "work with urgency."

 

"It reminds us of what this energy feels like . . . that we need to focus on that again," Haley said.

 

But now, the former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. has warned about the potential dangers of Chinese investments: “Chinese investors have bought nearly 400,000 acres of American land, much of it near military bases. I’ll do everything in my power to prevent China from buying any more land and force it to sell what it already owns,” she wrote for the Wall Street Journal in June.

 

Haley’s campaign has fired back at DeSantis over his own record of courting Chinese business after reporting by The Messenger revealed that references to China were removed from the website of Enterprise Florida, a public-private partnership chaired by DeSantis.

 

The site scrubbed references to a Hong Kong office and efforts to recruit Chinese investment after the Washington Examiner reported on DeSantis’s alleged ties to China.

 

While the site once had a page showing the group’s board of directors, including DeSantis as the board’s chairman, that page was later removed and began returning a “404 Page Not Found.”

 

The DeSantis administration told the outlet “outdated information” was removed from the website and that Enterprise Florida ended its relationship with Chinese businesses earlier this year “upon the realization that companies on the Hong Kong stock exchange have become infiltrated with investments from China’s military.”

 

An ad by the pro-Haley Stand for America super PAC also accused DeSantis of voting to “fast-track Obama’s Chinese trade deals.” The Washington Post said the claim appeared to be false, giving it four Pinocchios.

 

The ad claims DeSantis gave millions to Chinese companies, though the cited Washington Times article makes no mention of DeSantis. It goes on to point out two votes DeSantis supported as a congressman in 2015, though one was a bipartisan budget passed to avert a government default and did not mention China. The second, the Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities and Accountability Act of 2015, extended Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), allowing a president to “fast-track” trade legislation. That bill passed with the support of 190 Republicans.

 

While DeSantis and Haley have trained their attacks on each other, front-runner Donald Trump’s record of making amiable comments about China and doing business in the country has largely escaped scrutiny.

 

Trump, who owns 114 trademarks in China for possible business opportunities, according to financial filings released earlier this month, recently called Chinese president Xi Jinping a “very smart person” during a campaign rally in Iowa.

 

Trump said President Biden "walked up with a man who looks like a piece of granite, he's strong like granite, I know him very well, President Xi of China," referring to a meeting between Biden and Xi in San Francisco last week.

 

"He's a fierce person," Trump added. "Now the press doesn't like it when I say good things about him, but what can I say: he runs 1.4 billion people with an iron hand."

 

"He happens to be a very smart person," Trump said. "Our leader is a stupid person."

 

As DeSantis and Haley battle it out in the polls, the Florida governor has pulled two major endorsements in Iowa recently: Governor Kim Reynolds and Family Leader president Bob Vander Plaats, an influential Evangelical conservative.

 

“We need to find somebody who can win in 2024,” Vander Plaats told Bret Baier on Tuesday night when he threw his support behind DeSantis, citing the GOP’s less-than-stellar performance in the 2022 midterms.

 

Iowa-based pollster J. Ann Selzer told me DeSantis is “popular with Iowa Republicans” and noted that Vander Plaats has a record of endorsing eventual caucus winners.

 

“These endorsements get DeSantis much-needed attention, so likely to not hurt. We’ll have to see if they help him enough to make [a] difference,” Selzer said in a statement.

 

Iowa senate president Amy Sinclair, who has endorsed DeSantis herself, told me Reynolds and Vander Plaats “bring strong political organizations to the team that will take DeSantis’s already historic ground game to the next level.”

 

“Their endorsements tell Iowans that DeSantis is the proven conservative fighter who can beat Trump and Biden, and then lead America's revival,” she said.





ccp

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Trump website
« Reply #891 on: November 23, 2023, 01:07:42 PM »
thought I would check in
all sounds good to me:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/terrible-choices-deep-distrust-path-135113800.html

If he would stick to this we should be good.
It seems like re aligning our priorities should breed success and "long term" return to sensible not progressive success for the US

I hesitate to think that with Trump, even if he wins we will lose the next one from him overkill his personal interests.

Any thoughts?

Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2024
« Reply #892 on: November 23, 2023, 01:25:40 PM »
Is that the link you intended?

DougMacG

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2024, 5 questions Biden cannot turnaround
« Reply #893 on: November 24, 2023, 06:15:35 AM »
https://news.yahoo.com/5-questions-looming-over-president-230000479.html

(There are way more than 5)
His age.
The economy.
Democrat divisions over Israel Palestine
3rd party competitors
Can he make Trump unelectable

(Doug)
1. It's not age, it's the degradation of his already limited intelligence.  And no, they got him this far but there is no cure for 'aging'.
2.  The economy will change when policies improve.  For the most part,, not likely in this time frame.  Large downside risks.
3.  Division over Israel won't go away.  He mostly picked the right side but all the opponents to that are from his own political party.
4.  The 3rd party challenges we know of are all Democrats.  I don't buy that Dems like RFK and Manchin et Al will pull from Trump.
5.  Trump's so-called legal challenges are turning into discovery that may help him and also delays that prevent some sort of outcome in a timely manner.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2023, 07:27:23 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Haley's Medicare Advantage
« Reply #894 on: November 24, 2023, 07:01:19 AM »
Nikki Haley’s Medicare Advantage
A new study shows insurer competition reduces costs.
By
The Editorial Board
Follow
Nov. 23, 2023 4:16 pm ET

Few politicians are willing to touch entitlements these days, but Nikki Haley dared to do so in the recent debate on Medicare. A new study shows her pitch to expand the Medicare Advantage program could lower costs and improve care.


Medicare Advantage plans are growing rapidly and cover about half of the entitlement’s beneficiaries. Private insurers administer the plans and are paid by Medicare per beneficiary. Insurers compete for patients by offering benefits, including vision and dental care that aren’t available in traditional fee-for-service Medicare.

Lower premiums have made Advantage plans popular in particular among low-income seniors. Plans are able to offer more benefits at lower cost in part by reducing unnecessary care and expensive hospital stays.

Avalere, a healthcare consulting firm, analyzed utilization rates in traditional Medicare versus Advantage plans. After adjusting for disease and demographics, Avalere found that fee-for-service utilization was 12% higher for skilled nursing homes and 37% higher for hospital inpatient care in 2019.

Hospitals are the biggest driver of Medicare spending. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has tried to use performance-based payment models such as accountable care organizations (ACOs) to improve preventative care and reduce hospital admissions. But these haven’t moved the dial as much as Medicare Advantage plans.

The Avalere study doesn’t dissect why healthcare utilization is so much lower in Medicare Advantage. Democrats who oppose private competition accuse insurers of putting up bureaucratic hurdles to treatments. That may be true in some cases, but it doesn’t explain why inpatient hospital utilization is so much lower among Advantage patients.

One reason is private insurers have a financial incentive to keep patients out of the hospital by improving adherence to treatments and coordination of care. CMS also scores plans based on quality metrics, including diabetes control, medication adherence and post-emergency room visits. Higher-rated plans receive bonuses.

As Ms. Haley noted at the GOP debate, the Medicare Board of Trustees estimated this year that the program’s hospital trust fund—financed by payroll taxes—would run dry by 2031. If fee-for-service utilization rates were similar to those in the Advantage program, Avalere projects that the hospital trust fund would remain solvent until 2048.

But instead of expanding Medicare Advantage, the Biden Administration is trying to limit the program’s growth by restricting plan marketing and reducing payments for treating higher-risk patients under the guise of rooting out waste, fraud and abuse. The reason is purely ideological: Progressives loathe private medicine and want the government to control all healthcare.

As an alternative to competition, the Administration is resorting to brute government force to curb Medicare spending: restricting access to new Alzheimer’s treatments, imposing price controls on other medicines, and reducing reimbursements to doctors. CMS recently finalized a rule cutting physician fees by 3.4% next year, which it purported to offset partly by increasing payments to ACOs that treat more minorities.

Medicare’s low reimbursement rates are driving doctors to leave private practice for hospitals, which reduces provider competition and increases healthcare spending. Ms. Haley’s idea of unleashing private competition isn’t a panacea to runaway entitlement spending, but it’s less painful than the price and reimbursement controls that Democrats want.

ccp

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Nikki : health care
« Reply #895 on: November 24, 2023, 09:39:52 AM »
Not clear on how she would "expand" Medicare advantage.

I just did a quick search and no specifics come up.
This is the most I have seen:

https://meaww.com/internet-applauds-candidate-nikki-haley-as-she-reveals-her-plan-for-improving-healthcare-system-in-second-gop-debate

Does she mean to get more seniors into them?
Does she mean expand to other groups - younger people?  Those too young for Medicare but cannot afford their own insurance and do not get through work.

----------------------------------------------------------------

We all know the problems, so pointing that out is the easy part.
Calling for more competition may be helpful but it is not like there is not already some competition.
Agree with transparency concerning Pharmacy Benefits Managers! for sure.

There is a lot of competition already in it though there are a few major players like Humana United Health Care etc.

I have gotten many solicitations for them the past few yrs .   

Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2024
« Reply #896 on: November 24, 2023, 12:22:05 PM »
I still think Dr. Ben Carson's proposal of 2016 was and is the best and is actually worthy of genuine support.


DougMacG

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2024, Newsom v Harris
« Reply #898 on: November 26, 2023, 08:56:35 AM »
Funny at least to me to know Newsom and Harris don't like each other.  That battle is coming. Get the popcorn, as they say...

https://themessenger.com/opinion/kamala-harris-gavin-newsom-democratic-civil-war-california-ambition-president

Besides lowest popularity in history and being first to leave the 2020 race with 0.0 delegates, Harris has absolutely zero executive experience.

Her closest brushes with executive experience come from running a prosecutors' office that did not prosecute, and to stand (sit) with President Biden while Obama advisers ran his White House.

Newsom, also overrated, has emerged as the heir apparent to a nearly deceased incumbent.

So how does this substitution happen?

Not without a fight.

https://themessenger.com/opinion/kamala-harris-gavin-newsom-democratic-civil-war-california-ambition-president

ccp

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Re: 2024
« Reply #899 on: November 26, 2023, 09:09:42 AM »
It is hard to believe Biden actually be the nominee.
Someone(s) somewhere ( I read and listen to a good amount of political news) stated Biden will announce an alternative to himself during the convention and shake up the race.

News is it is running past deadlines in many states for someone else to enter.

God, if he should win, move over Barbara Streisand and Cher - > I would want to leave the US and escape to I don't know where.

Tahiti?
Switzerland?
NZ?
South Pole?