Author Topic: China vs. the World; Chinese political intimidation & penetration  (Read 24924 times)

Crafty_Dog

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Re: China vs. the World; Chinese political intimidation & penetration
« Reply #150 on: April 13, 2021, 11:29:10 AM »
Hard to see how we can avoid for #2 status.

DougMacG

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Re: China vs. the World; Chinese political intimidation & penetration
« Reply #151 on: April 13, 2021, 11:56:17 AM »
Hard to see how we can avoid for #2 status.

PRC population = 1.4 billion
US population   =    330 million

If they have grown past third world country status, hard to see how they don't go past us in terms of GDP and ability to spend on military.  But if it is China vs. the world, the US side includes some parts of the rest of the world, hopefully much more than China.  If not (all of) Europe, there is India, Japan, Australia, maybe UK, Canada and others.

Our main problem/challenge is to get our own house in order.  The market system will do fine overall against central planning, if only we had retained the free market system.  In some ways like business taxes, their market is freer.  For single minded efforts like building the pyramids, the master slave economy has certain advantages.

I believe that right before Covid we had them close to where we wanted them in negotiations.  Since then, we lost our grip, we lost Trump, they gained Biden, we lost our growth engine, we lost our leverage, we lost Europe, and on it goes.

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: Italy tries to get off its ass
« Reply #153 on: April 22, 2021, 07:38:24 PM »
European resistance to China. Soon to be flush with European recovery funds, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi is reportedly moving to bolster measures aimed at preventing foreign (i.e., Chinese and Russian) takeovers of distressed Italian companies – as happened across the Continent during the European sovereign debt crisis. Meanwhile, Montenegro is reportedly seeking deeper integration with the European Union, partly as a way to gain leverage in its efforts to renegotiate a loan agreement with China.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: China vs. the World; Chinese political intimidation & penetration
« Reply #156 on: May 07, 2021, 09:34:09 AM »
Europe Starts to Come Around on China
Putting business first and alienating the U.S. has backfired.
By The Editorial Board
May 6, 2021 6:47 pm ET


President Biden wants to work with traditional American allies to resist China’s increasing belligerence. While the European Union has tried to steer its own course, Beijing is doing its part to revive the trans-Atlantic alliance.

“We now in a sense have suspended . . . political outreach activities from the European Commission side,” EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis told AFP on Tuesday. “The environment is not conducive for ratification of the agreement.” Mr. Dombrovskis is referring to the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, a deal meant to provide Europe and China greater access to each other’s markets.

Weeks before becoming U.S. national security adviser, Jake Sullivan requested “early consultations” with Brussels about the pact. Europe responded by announcing it had reached an agreement-in-principle with China. But the European Parliament and 27 national leaders still have to approve the deal.

That process became more complicated in March, when the European Union announced sanctions targeting four Chinese officials involved with human-rights abuses in the Xinjiang region. Beijing responded by imposing sanctions on several members of the European Parliament and other Europeans critical of the Chinese Communist Party.


It’s hard to ratify a deal with a country that has sanctioned officials who will vote on ratification, but German Chancellor Angela Merkel is still trying. She spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron last month, and the German readout of the call didn’t mention human rights. The French later said it came up, but Ms. Merkel is trying to play down the issue as she seeks to solidify the deal before elections this year.


Europe understandably wants to resolve its trade issues with China—so does the U.S. Germany exported nearly €100 billion in goods to China last year, and the trade pact theoretically creates opportunities in autos, telecom and healthcare, among other industries.

But Ms. Merkel’s “change through trade” philosophy—something we once hoped for China—is out of date. Economic relations need to consider China’s often predatory mercantilism, IP theft and cyber spying. Beijing saw Europe’s snub of the new U.S. Administration last year as a major geopolitical victory.

An EU official clarified Tuesday that the talks were “not quite suspended” and “ratification will depend on how the situation evolves.” Ms. Merkel and her allies will continue to fight for the deal. But skepticism is growing in the European Parliament, the German political class and the European public. Rather than struggle to pass a flawed deal, the Continent would be better off regrouping and approaching China in a united trade front with the U.S. and other like-minded nations.

Winston Churchill may or not have said the famous line, “The Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted.” But we’d understand if Mr. Biden feels the same way about his friends in Europe.

Crafty_Dog

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DougMacG

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Re: China vs. the World; Chinese political intimidation & penetration
« Reply #159 on: May 09, 2021, 05:16:14 PM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/chinese-military-discussed-weaponizing-covid-2015-cause-enemys-medical-system-collapse?utm_campaign=&utm_content=Zerohedge%3A+The+Durden+Dispatch&utm_medium=email&utm_source=zh_newsletter

Scary stuff.  Quite incriminating.  Whether it was intentional or they were collecting and investigating these viruses for offensive and defensive purposes and it escaped accidentally, the result is the same and the crime is the same.  Think Derrick Chauvin.  The recklessness of what China did in the lab and planning for this possibility was criminal, the result was pandemic worldwide.  The verdict must be mass murder, multi-million counts.  I would add hate crime to the charge and double the penalty.  BTW, what is the penalty?  With Biden, obviously nothing.  The rest of the country and the world should insist this be taken to The Hague and tried as a war crime, with real charges, discovery, witnesses and Journalists covering it.  Hold the PLA accountable, all the way up to Xi.

Liberals in US and Europe want world government.  Let's try it here with basic world law enforcement.  Try the case and make the Chinese regime give up power if guilty.  Is that too much to ask? 

Crafty_Dog

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China vs. Australia
« Reply #160 on: May 11, 2021, 09:32:08 AM »
Risky tactic. China’s pressure campaign against Australia is increasingly moving into energy commodities, with at least two Chinese importers of liquefied natural gas reportedly ordered to buy from elsewhere. This is partially the result of trade diversion that was bound to happen with the signing of the “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal in early 2020; to even come close to meeting its ambitious import targets, China needs to buy a whole lot of energy from the United States. But targeting Australian gas, coal and other energy commodities is a little risky, given that Chinese demand is likely to remain high for a long time.

DougMacG

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Re: China vs. Australia
« Reply #161 on: May 11, 2021, 10:06:10 AM »
Risky tactic. China’s pressure campaign against Australia is increasingly moving into energy commodities, with at least two Chinese importers of liquefied natural gas reportedly ordered to buy from elsewhere. This is partially the result of trade diversion that was bound to happen with the signing of the “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal in early 2020; to even come close to meeting its ambitious import targets, China needs to buy a whole lot of energy from the United States. But targeting Australian gas, coal and other energy commodities is a little risky, given that Chinese demand is likely to remain high for a long time.

Yes, risky. 

Definition of a trade war:  You shoot a hole in the bottom of your boat.  I retaliate by shooting a bigger hole in the bottom of mine. 

Trade is mutually beneficial by definition.  Energy goes beyond that; it is essential for survival and prosperity.  Seems dumb to screw around with that.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2021, 10:27:49 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: China-Australia, more
« Reply #162 on: May 18, 2021, 01:05:30 PM »
Chinese squeeze play on Australia still on. China’s National Development and Reform Commission on Monday said it was encouraging importers to look elsewhere for iron ore, Australia’s most lucrative commodity export. Meanwhile, a new study suggests that Sino-Australian tensions led to a 29 percent drop in investment in Australian real estate. Australian exports to China and Chinese investment in Australia were the two foremost reasons Australia was able to avoid a recession for more than two decades pre-pandemic.

Not-so-secret talks. China has reportedly been holding behind-the-scenes talks with a handful of countries on potentially joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the strategically important 11-nation (12 before the U.S. withdrew in 2017) trade pact. Officials from Australia, Malaysia and New Zealand have apparently taken part, and likely some other member states as well. If such talks gain traction, it would say quite a bit about the direction regional states see the Sino-U.S. competition going over the long term. Japan and several other members are anxious to get Washington back in the pact ASAP, so expect to see more of these sorts of reports leak as a tactic aimed at generating pro-CPTPP momentum in the United States.

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GPF: China penetration via Huawei
« Reply #163 on: May 24, 2021, 07:39:28 AM »
May 21, 2021
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Even Under Siege, Huawei Increases Its Reach
Its global footprint is still huge and steadily expanding.
By: Geopolitical Futures
Huawei's Developing Global Reach

(click to enlarge)

U.S. measures targeting Chinese telecoms giant Huawei have hit the company hard. U.S. restrictions on semiconductor sales have pushed it into crisis mode at home. U.S. software restrictions have hammered Huawei's smartphone market share. And U.S. efforts to deny it access to Western markets have been fruitful, with dozens of countries in Europe and elsewhere adopting at least partial bans on including Huawei gear in their 5G network rollouts. But Huawei's global footprint is still huge and steadily expanding. After all, the full suite of products and services it offers goes far beyond smartphones and 5G – and Huawei wields tremendous advantages thanks, in part, to government financial and diplomatic backing.
Naturally, the developing world is where these advantages deliver the most diplomatic bang for their buck. This is evident in Huawei's sales of cloud infrastructure and e-government services. More than half of the 70 deals in 41 countries Huawei is confirmed to have inked in these sectors are in emerging markets. Among these, the largest share – around 36 percent – have come in sub-Saharan Africa. A full 72 percent of deals have been inked with countries characterized as middle income. And given Huawei's talent for wooing authoritarian governments in places notorious for a lack of transparency, the true number is likely higher.

G M

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Re: GPF: China penetration via Huawei
« Reply #164 on: May 24, 2021, 08:50:17 AM »
https://freebeacon.com/biden-administration/biden-intel-nominee-grilled-for-huawei-work/

May 21, 2021
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Even Under Siege, Huawei Increases Its Reach
Its global footprint is still huge and steadily expanding.
By: Geopolitical Futures
Huawei's Developing Global Reach

(click to enlarge)

U.S. measures targeting Chinese telecoms giant Huawei have hit the company hard. U.S. restrictions on semiconductor sales have pushed it into crisis mode at home. U.S. software restrictions have hammered Huawei's smartphone market share. And U.S. efforts to deny it access to Western markets have been fruitful, with dozens of countries in Europe and elsewhere adopting at least partial bans on including Huawei gear in their 5G network rollouts. But Huawei's global footprint is still huge and steadily expanding. After all, the full suite of products and services it offers goes far beyond smartphones and 5G – and Huawei wields tremendous advantages thanks, in part, to government financial and diplomatic backing.
Naturally, the developing world is where these advantages deliver the most diplomatic bang for their buck. This is evident in Huawei's sales of cloud infrastructure and e-government services. More than half of the 70 deals in 41 countries Huawei is confirmed to have inked in these sectors are in emerging markets. Among these, the largest share – around 36 percent – have come in sub-Saharan Africa. A full 72 percent of deals have been inked with countries characterized as middle income. And given Huawei's talent for wooing authoritarian governments in places notorious for a lack of transparency, the true number is likely higher.

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: China vs. Lithuania and other "small countries"
« Reply #165 on: May 25, 2021, 08:20:05 PM »
China versus Lithuania. Over the weekend, Lithuania withdrew from a cooperation forum involving China and 17 Central and Eastern European states and called on other EU members to follow suit. On Monday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry tried to shrug it off, calling Lithuania's move an "isolated incident" that wouldn't derail Chinese cooperation with the grouping. But an article in the hawkish Global Times ripped into Lithuania, saying the country is "not qualified to attack China and this is not the way a small country should act" and that "when such a small country is aggressive ... it will invite trouble." This sort of rhetoric will resonate far beyond the Baltics. A similar statement from China's foreign minister in 2010 directed at "small countries" in Southeast Asia, for example, was considered an inflection point in regional perceptions of Chinese coercion.

DougMacG

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https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/jim-treacher/2021/05/25/chinese-communist-party-shelled-out-millions-for-propaganda-in-american-newspapers-n1449515

Chinese Communist Party Shelled Out Millions for Propaganda in American Newspapers

https://freebeacon.com/media/chinese-propaganda-outlet-paid-millions-to-american-%20newspapers-and-magazines/
-------------------------------------------------------------

Shouldn't cost that much, America's newspapers are already a propaganda arm for the Chinese Communist Party.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: China vs. the World; Chinese political intimidation & penetration
« Reply #167 on: May 26, 2021, 02:22:29 PM »
The FreeBeacon page is showing "not found".

Crafty_Dog

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ccp

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Must read/or view Gordon Chang on multiple Chinese topics
« Reply #169 on: June 02, 2021, 08:58:24 AM »
most stunning is his prediction that China's population could shrink by 1 billion people by end of century:
https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/gordon-chang-covid-19-intelligence-research/2021/06/01/id/1023488/

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: China vs. Hungary
« Reply #171 on: June 07, 2021, 11:02:21 AM »
Backlash in Budapest. Protests broke out in Budapest over the weekend against the Hungarian government’s plans to construct a Chinese university campus in the city. The project would require a $1.8 billion investment from Hungary.

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: China eyes stake in Hamburg, Germany port
« Reply #173 on: June 08, 2021, 11:30:14 AM »
China eyes stake at Hamburg port. Chinese state-owned shipping company COSCO is in advanced negotiations with the Port of Hamburg’s HHLA over acquiring a 30-40 percent stake in the Tollerort container terminal. The agreement would enable COSCO ships to receive priority handling there in the future. Talks have been conducted in coordination with the German government, which has not yet raised any serious objections.

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China vs. NATO
« Reply #174 on: June 14, 2021, 09:51:18 PM »
   
Brief: NATO’s Concerns Over China
A communique specifically cites the problems over Beijing’s growing nuclear arsenal.
By: Geopolitical Futures
Background: NATO has had a bit of an identity crisis ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. Not only is there no longer a primary enemy to ally against, but each NATO member increasingly has national interests that may run counter to the others', including those over China. The United States in particular is trying to expand NATO cooperation to counter Chinese influence in Europe, which often takes the form of economic, not military, action.

What Happened: NATO issued its official communique after its June 14 summit. In it, the alliance expressed concern over China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal (both in terms of the number of warheads and number of delivery systems to establish a nuclear triad). The communique also says China and Russia are cooperating militarily, including in Russian-led exercises in the Euro-Atlantic area.

Bottom Line: Russia and China already established bilateral military cooperation and drills through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. These joint exercises and military maneuvers, however, take place primarily in Central and Eastern Asian countries, not the Euro-Atlantic area. It’s unclear what activities NATO is referring to, but the potential introduction of such a dynamic could greatly change the strategic calculus for European defense.


Crafty_Dog

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Re: China vs. the World; Chinese political intimidation & penetration
« Reply #176 on: June 28, 2021, 05:29:10 PM »
Wolf War and Peace
Will more civil diplomacy actually benefit Beijing?
By: Phillip Orchard

Chinese President Xi Jinping did the unexpected earlier this month during a speech delivered to a Politburo study session: He told his government to focus on cultivating a “trustworthy, lovable and respectable” image of China. That’s not the same as being trustworthy, lovable and respectable. But it stood out because Beijing, in both word and deed, has spent much of the past few years doing effectively the opposite, consequences be damned. This attitude has been embodied most visibly by the emergence of China's new, abrasive generation of “wolf warrior” diplomats, who have been making waves with a curious approach to statecraft centered heavily on Twitter trolling, pushing conspiracy theories, and even disrupting public events that challenge the party line. Their tactics had previously been encouraged, if only implicitly, by Xi himself.

The pugilism of Chinese diplomacy reflects both the country's burgeoning strengths and its enduring strategic and institutional frailties. Beijing has never had this much ability to reshape the international system around its needs, and yet most of the recent diplomatic big talk has been meant to impress domestic audiences. Xi may have concluded that things have gone a bit too far – that the costs of antagonizing the court of international public opinion are real. But Beijing realizes that a global strategy centered on winning hearts and minds is unlikely to bear much fruit.

Thin Skin

As in most authoritarian regimes, where the risks of acting out of step can be deadly, Chinese diplomats have generally had a bloodless reputation: charming in person but almost painfully taciturn and risk-averse in official capacities. To an extent, this reflected Beijing's broader strategic worldview, as encapsulated by Deng Xiaoping’s axiom that China should “bide its time and hide its capabilities.” China was rapidly getting rich off the international system, so it had little to gain from rocking the boat until it had amassed the power to do so without getting thrown overboard.

Under Xi, China’s Foreign Ministry has hurtled in the extreme opposite direction, with senior officials and far-flung envoys alike showing their “fighting spirit” with a vigor that would make Madame Mao proud. The resulting “wolf warrior” moniker comes from a pair of recent blockbuster hits in China where a Rambo-like figure repeatedly lays waste to the motherland's many foreign enemies.

There have been several incidents in the past few years that are hard to see as beneficial for Chinese ambitions. For example, last October, Chinese officials gatecrashed a Taiwan National Day celebration in Fiji and ended up sparking a fistfight over a cake bearing the Taiwanese flag. There was the time in 2017 when a Chinese delegation shouted down Australia’s foreign minister at an international conference on blood diamonds until a Taiwanese delegation was ejected. There have been countless cringeworthy tweets spreading conspiracy theories about COVID-19’s origins and vaccines, mocking countries that have struggled to contain its spread, and launching wild counterattacks against petty slights, both real and imagined. It’s all gotten more pronounced since the pandemic.

Chinese diplomats aren’t wholly unique in this regard, of course. The rise of Twitter and other platforms has allowed senior officials everywhere to show the public just how thin their skin really is. But it's a particularly conspicuous departure from the norm for China. And it’s elicited a lot of dismay and derision, even among more seasoned Chinese diplomats. Longtime Ambassador to the U.S. Cui Tiankai, who is set to be replaced by a more sharp-tongued figure in the coming months, has obliquely criticized the wolf warriors several times. Evidently, it may be becoming a little much even for Xi, who has encouraged the practice, perhaps unwittingly, by repeatedly calling on Chinese diplomats to stay ready to fight.

A Modest Course Correction

There are several things going on here. To start, there are at least some tactical benefits to this approach – even if they don't outweigh the risks – at a time when China is facing a mountain of unwanted attention over things like COVID-19, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and its isolation campaign against Taiwan. Flooding the zone with disinformation, conspiracy theories, false equivalents, and historical grievances is irritating for those who prefer honest debate, but it's undeniably proved successful as a communications strategy for leaders across the globe in recent years.

But the main driving factors are domestic. Nationalism is an extraordinarily powerful tool and one the ruling party has long been skilled at using to distract the public from problems at home. China today is more powerful and more insulated to international pressure than ever. It’s got to feel good to flex a bit; some high-profile wolf warriors have become minor celebrities on Chinese social media. Under Xi, more broadly, Beijing has been shifting the national narrative from China as a poor country under permanent siege to China as an ascendant superpower on track to put the century of humiliation in the past for good. Two-level game theory – where public statements made by envoys are intended as much to please domestic audiences as to persuade their counterparts across the negotiating table – is a permanent fixture of diplomacy. Under China and the wolf warriors, this dynamic is merely tilting more and more toward the home front.

Finally, it reflects Chinese institutional cultures and the precarious reality of life as a Chinese diplomat. During periods of political stress and power struggles in Beijing, China’s foreign ministry historically has not fared well, facing major purges repeatedly since the Communist Party came to power. Diplomats are particularly quick to come under suspicion for disloyalty, given their exposure to foreign influences and ability to do their jobs with relatively little supervision. Indeed, many of China's best envoys – those with the most experience in and expertise about a particular country – have found themselves in situations where their skillsets had become subjects of suspicion within their own bureaucracy. To deflect this and keep their jobs, performative nationalism has often been an essential job requirement. The surest path to either career advancement or merely survival is to stand out as an unyielding, unapologetic defender of Xi's vision of Chinese rejuvenation.

Does any of this matter in the big picture? Xi’s call for a modest course correction suggests it does. There are some risks to the wolf warrior approach. In general, smooth diplomacy can't do a whole lot to persuade countries to do something that’s not in their perceived interest. But antagonistic diplomacy can be meaningfully counterproductive. In other words, Chinese hostility has made it harder for, say, Australian leaders to do business with China even in areas where there's a lot of mutual interest. Conversely, anti-Chinese measures that may previously have been too politically painful for Australia to adopt now sail through parliament. In the past few years alone, political backlash against Chinese coercion has derailed several Chinese Belt and Road Initiative projects in Malaysia, Sri Lanka and elsewhere, scuppered the EU-China investment treaty, reelected an independence-leaning president in Taiwan and pushed India to finally join the ranks of a Western alliance system in the Quad.

The deeper reality is that China has a reputation problem rooted in strategic and internal political imperatives that make much of the world deeply uncomfortable. Even if its intentions were wholly benign, its rise has and will continue to be deeply disruptive and inherently problematic for many countries. Its resource needs are too immense and its internal political pressures too explosive for China to prioritize winning hearts and minds abroad over its core objectives. It cannot realistically portray itself as a global benefactor. It may be worth curbing wolf warrior practices that are doing more harm than good to China's strategy, and this is probably what Xi has in mind. But don't expect a fundamental reorientation of Chinese policies at home or abroad anytime soon.


Crafty_Dog

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GPF: A picture of China's expansion
« Reply #178 on: July 16, 2021, 03:55:41 PM »
July 16, 2021
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A Picture of China's Expansion
The rapid pace of Chinese growth has expanded the country’s need for natural resources.
By: Geopolitical Futures
China's Expanding Influence

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The rapid pace of Chinese growth has expanded the country’s need for natural resources, especially farmland, timber and inputs needed for emerging technologies such as batteries destined for electric vehicles. This has compelled Chinese companies in the agriculture, forestry and mining sectors to acquire lands overseas on an extraordinary scale, particularly in Africa and Asia. According to Landmatrix, between 2011 and 2020 Beijing acquired control of 6.48 million hectares around the world, compared to the 1.56 million controlled by the U.K., the 860,000 by the United States and the 420,000 by Japan.

The increased Chinese influence all around the world has triggered fears and concerns among other states, since emerging and developing countries that accept China’s investments run the risk of falling into the so-called debt trap. For example, after joining the Belt and Road Initiative, Montenegro found itself in a situation where it couldn’t repay the debt it incurred for financing highway construction, and it was forced to ask for Western banks’ help. Countries in this same situation could become significantly exposed to Chinese geopolitical influence. That’s why some countries, like EU member states and Japan, are trying to implement countermeasures to balance Chinese investments in infrastructural projects and land acquisitions.

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Re: China vs. the World; Chinese political intimidation & penetration
« Reply #179 on: August 03, 2021, 06:21:54 PM »
By: Geopolitical Futures
China's latest outbreaks. Major COVID-19 outbreaks are being reported in at least 14 Chinese provinces, including key cities like Wuhan. Authorities have been compelled to shut down some traffic into Beijing. The country’s main tracking app is reportedly crashing under the strain. China going back into lockdown would only worsen the supply chain snarls impeding the global economic recovery, to say the least.

Progress in the Himalayas. Chinese and Indian commanders held another round of talks over the disputed border region in the Himalayas. The fact that the two sides were able to release a joint statement suggests some progress has been made, as does the mere fact that this summer’s squabbling season has thus far gone off without a major clash. A sustainable detente won’t be achieved, though, until both sides stop infrastructure development near the Line of Actual Control and until broader strategic tensions subside.
Meanwhile, India is reportedly deploying a handful of warships on a two-month tour of the South China Sea.

Berlin's message to Beijing. Germany deployed a warship to the South China Sea for the first time in nearly two decades. Berlin says the deployment is meant to send a message that it does not accept China’s territorial claims in the region.

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GPF:
« Reply #183 on: August 30, 2021, 10:04:29 AM »
Back at the table. The U.S. and Chinese militaries are finally talking again – a first under the Biden administration, whose efforts to restart at least perfunctory negotiations with Beijing have largely been rebuffed. A video conference between deputy-level officers from each side was reportedly held last week. That didn’t stop the U.S. from sending another warship down the Taiwan Strait, nor China from launching live-fire drills shadowing the Indian-led Malabar exercises, which featured for the second time all four Quad members (the U.S., India, Australia and Japan).

Chinese oversight. China is reportedly planning to require all foreign vessels to check in with Chinese authorities before passing through any part of what Beijing considers its vast territorial waters. Given how hotly disputed many of its territorial claims are – and the fact that China is not precise about the extent of such claims – low-scale incidents seem likely.

Chinese overreach. Beijing is reportedly moving to crack down on online content that “maliciously” criticizes the state of the Chinese economy. China has good reason to try to prevent unfounded speculation from triggering some sort of financial crisis. The question is whether this will muzzle serious reporting and analysis about China’s many economic woes or the publishing of survey data, particularly in Hong Kong.

Second thoughts. The Democratic Republic of Congo is reviewing a $6 billion mining deal with Chinese investment firm Sicomines over concerns that the deal doesn’t benefit the DRC, which is the world’s largest producer of cobalt and Africa’s leading source of copper. This comes after the country approved the deployment of U.S special operations forces to help combat Islamic State-linked militants in the mineral-rich eastern region.

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GPF: China vs. Britain
« Reply #184 on: September 15, 2021, 06:05:02 AM »
Britain: Still Searching for Its Place in the World
London is once again embarking on a redefinition of its global role.
By: Geopolitical Futures
By Francesco Casarotto

In 1962, U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson said, “Great Britain has lost an empire but not yet found a role.” Acheson’s comment perfectly described Britain’s position in the world since 1945, when London lost its place as the world’s premier maritime power to the United States. The fundamental geopolitical question that has faced Britain ever since is how to engage with Europe.

Its position on the periphery of Europe allows it to keep other European powers at arm’s length. Throughout its history, Britain has refrained from close integration with other European nations, the major exception being the period between the end of World War II and its exit from the European Union last year. Even as a member of the EU, it never shared Brussels’ vision for an “ever closer union,” fearing it would grow to be dominated by Germany, and opted out of critical integration initiatives like the Schengen zone and the euro. Today, Britain is once again embarking on a redefinition of its global role. In doing so, it’s looking to the Indo-Pacific and the so-called Global Britain strategy.

Britain’s Tilt to Asia

Last March, the British government published a paper called “Global Britain in a Competitive Age: the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy.” The document is meant to serve as a compass for Britain’s global strategy. The concept of “Global Britain” is aimed at least in part at restoring Britain’s role in the international system. It includes a redefinition of the main threats to British national interests and a new strategy to protect these interests.

Britain still sees Russia as the biggest threat to the security of Europe, and thus to itself, but the document released earlier this year calls China the “biggest state-based threat to the UK’s economic security.” That’s because Britain’s economic activity is steadily pivoting toward the Indo-Pacific, a region that London acknowledges as the engine of global economic growth and trade. It’s also a region where Beijing has outsized clout and influence over economic and trade activity.

It’s not hard to see why Britain is pivoting to the Indo-Pacific. Since its exit from the EU, trade between Britain and the bloc has consistently declined. According to the Office of National Statistics, between the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, goods imports from EU member states decreased by 21.7 percent while exports fell by 18.1 percent. While this contraction might be associated with the pandemic-induced downturn, there’s little doubt that the “Brexit effect” was also a contributor – especially because Britain’s trade with other markets in the same period was stronger. For example, goods imports from non-EU countries decreased by just 0.9 percent while exports grew by 0.4 percent. Moreover, according to figures set for release this week, Britain is expected to be left out of Germany’s top 10 trade partners for the first time since 1950. Prior to Brexit, it was Germany’s fifth-largest trade partner.

United Kingdom | EU vs. Extra-EU Trade
(click to enlarge)

Meanwhile, Britain’s economic ties to the Indo-Pacific have strengthened. In 2020, Britain signed new trade deals with Japan, Singapore and Vietnam, and last August, it began negotiations to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free trade deal encompassing Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. Meanwhile, it’s also enhancing economic and military cooperation with Australia and India, and drawing on its ties with former British Empire and current Commonwealth territories that have similar interests in the region.

Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership
(click to enlarge)

Considering the presence of several maritime chokepoints in the Indo-Pacific that can, if blocked, restrict access to these markets, China’s rise and increasing assertiveness is seen as a potential threat to this strategy. In other words, last March’s strategic review was a way of demonstrating Britain’s commitment to protecting the Indo-Pacific and containing the Chinese threat.

The Royal Navy’s Rejuvenation

Britain has also shown its commitment by deploying its Royal Navy to strategically important locations, joining a number of countries that have sent naval forces to the Indo-Pacific to secure sea lanes and contain Chinese ambitions. As part of Operation Fortis, Britain’s Carrier Strike Group 21, led by the new HMS Queen Elizabeth, departed from England in May for the Indo-Pacific. The group was joined by the USS The Sullivans destroyer and the Dutch HNLMS Evertsen frigate. In July, Britain’s defense minister also announced that two warships would be permanently deployed in the region by the end of the year.

The Royal Navy has long been a major part of Britain’s strategy to secure maritime trade, a critical component of any island nation’s economy. Therefore, the navy has been undergoing a rejuvenation in an effort to reverse a decadeslong decline that began around the end of the Cold War. Its deterioration was partly the result of Britain’s prioritization of its land forces with the beginnings of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. It’s now hoping that the navy’s modernization will lend credibility to the Global Britain strategy.

In 2017 and 2019, the HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carriers were commissioned. (Britain’s three Invincible-class carriers were retired in the early 2010s.) Capable of carrying up to 36 F-35 fighters, the two vessels are the highlights of the Royal Navy’s revamp. In addition, the Vanguard-class nuclear submarines will be replaced by the early 2030s with new Dreadnaught-class submarines, which, like their predecessors, will carry Trident II ballistic missiles. Last March, Britain announced that it would also replace its Type 45 destroyers with Type 83 destroyers by the late 2030s.

Global Britain is essentially an expansion of Britain’s interests and its ability to defend them. Its pivot to the Indo-Pacific and its naval modernization plans are examples of this expansion. However, “global” doesn’t mean “alone.” London still needs regional partners and, more important, the United States to contain China and defend its interests in the Indo-Pacific. The Royal Navy isn’t strong enough to neutralize potential threats to British interests. So while the strategic review contributes to London’s expanded global role, it won’t restore Britain as a maritime powerhouse.

ccp

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Re: China vs. the World; Chinese political intimidation & penetration
« Reply #185 on: September 15, 2021, 06:51:25 AM »
"In 2017 and 2019, the HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carriers were commissioned."

Any idea how many Chinese hypersonic missiles it will take to neutralize all these carriers?

A dozen ??

Two ?

One per carrier ?

What a joke.


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China vs. Japan & UK
« Reply #186 on: September 29, 2021, 01:10:09 PM »
British-Japanese defense. On Tuesday, the United Kingdom announced it would start formal talks with Japan to increase defense cooperation. The British defense minister called the efforts a testament to their will to defend “the rules-based international order,” a not-so-subtle jab at Chinese behavior in the Indo-Pacific. The dialogue is in keeping with London’s post-Brexit pivot toward Asia.


DougMacG

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China belt and road
« Reply #188 on: October 03, 2021, 06:34:17 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Y6HjWlCXXk

3 min video, what, how, why.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2021, 05:32:56 AM by Crafty_Dog »

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Slovakia flips off China by hosting Taiwanese delegation
« Reply #191 on: October 28, 2021, 04:02:53 PM »
ICYMI: Slovakia irked China this week when, along with the Czech Republic and Lithuania, it hosted a 66-member delegation of Taiwanese officials. That three-country trip yielded 18 different memorandums of cooperation in areas like "industrial innovation, research and development, as well as the space industry and internet security," Agence France-Presse reported this morning from Vilnius.

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GPF
« Reply #192 on: November 18, 2021, 01:58:45 PM »
   
Daily Memo: Philippines Accuses China of Blocking Its Ships
Meanwhile, Beijing is cooperating with global efforts to ease energy prices.
By: Geopolitical Futures
Chinese interference. Manila is accusing Beijing of sending three coast guard vessels to block Philippine supply ships from reaching Second Thomas Shoal, one of the few islets in the Spratly archipelago controlled by the Philippines. Philippine Foreign Secretary Teddy Locsin said the Chinese vessels used water cannons to force the Philippine ships, which were carrying food supplies, to turn back. No one was hurt in the incident, which took place Tuesday, according to Locsin. China’s Foreign Ministry said that the Philippine vessels entered the waters without China’s consent and that China was merely upholding its sovereignty.

Energy prices. China appears willing to join the U.S. in releasing crude reserves in order to stabilize global oil prices. A government spokeswoman said crude releases were already underway, without providing much detail. The Biden administration is also pushing India, Japan and South Korea to follow suit. Seoul appears ready to cooperate. Japan is being more circumspect. All of these countries, except the U.S., rely overwhelmingly on imported crude, so it's a tricky prospect.

U.S. concerns. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission issued its annual report to Congress. Two highlights that we’ve touched on in the past: To counter China’s massive and ever-growing anti-access/area denial umbrella, the U.S. needs its allies in Northeast Asia to be willing to host U.S. missile deployments. The commission also recommended more aggressive action to limit U.S. investment in China and restrictions on U.S.-listed Chinese stocks. China has its own concerns about dependence on U.S. capital.

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China into Interpol
« Reply #193 on: November 26, 2021, 01:53:20 AM »
UAE, Chinese candidates get top Interpol posts

BY AYSE WIETING AND SUZAN FRASER ASSOCIATED PRESS ISTANBUL | Interpol on Thursday elected a polarizing candidate from the United Arab Emirates as its new president during the international law enforcement body’s annual General Assembly held in Istanbul.

Maj. Gen. Ahmed Naser al-Raisi, inspector general at the United Arab Emirates’ interior ministry and a member of Interpol’s executive committee, was elected for one four-year term, the global policing body announced. He won the vote despite past charges by human rights groups of involvement in torture and arbitrary detentions in the UAE.

Another controversial candidate, Hu Binchen, an official at China’s ministry of public security, was elected to join Interpol’s executive committee as a delegate from Asia. Mr. Hu was backed by China’s government, which is suspected of using the global police body to hunt down exiled dissidents and of disappearing its citizens.

The Lyon, France-based agency acts as an intermediary for national police services seeking to hunt down suspects outside of their borders. The elections of Mr. al-Raisi and Mr. Hu comes as the international body has come under criticism that its “red notice” system is being abused by government to go after exiled dissidents or political critics instead of criminals. Interpol’s charter however, prohibits the use of police notices for political reasons.

Interpol said Mr. al-Raisi was elected following three rounds of voting and received 68.9% of the votes cast in the final round.

“It’s an honor to have been elected to serve as the next president of Interpol,” the global police agency quoted Mr. al-Raisi as saying.

“Interpol is an indispensable organization built on the strength of its partnerships. It is this collaborative spirit, united in mission, that I will continue to foster as we work to make a safer world for people and communities.”

The vote for president was closely watched since the first-ever Chinese national to serve as president, Meng Hongwei, vanished midway through his four-year term on a return trip to China in 2018. It subsequently emerged that he had been detained and accused of bribery and other alleged domestic crimes.

Mr. al-Raisi is accused of torture and has criminal complaints against him in five countries, including in France, where Interpol has its headquarters, and in Turkey, where the election was held.

His election was met with joy in the UAE but drew angry responses from two Britons who filed the complaints.

“This is a sad day for international justice and global policing,” said Matthew Hedges, a British doctoral student who was imprisoned in the UAE for nearly seven months in 2018 on spying charges. Mr. Hedges says he was subjected to torture and months of solitary confinement.

Ali Issa Ahmad, a soccer fan who says he was tortured by the UAE security agency during the 2019 Asia Cup soccer tournament, said, “I will not stop my fight for justice for the torture and abuse I suffered under al-Raisi’s watch. I hope that Interpol will not allow him to abuse any other people.”

Their lawyer, Rodney Dixon, said his clients would “redouble their efforts to seek justice for their torture and pursue Gen. al-Raisi in national courts wherever he travels in his new position.”

Mr. Hedges was pardoned by UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, but Emirati officials still insist Mr. Hedges was spying for Britain’s MI6 intelligence agency, without offering definitive proof. He, his family and British diplomats have repeatedly denied the charges.

Separately, the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which includes legislators from around the world, expressed concern over Mr. Hu’s election to Interpol’s executive committee, saying it gives China “a green light to continue using Interpol as a vehicle for its repressive policies.” There was no immediate comment from Beijing.

In the UAE, now hosting the Expo 2020 world’s fair in Dubai and marking the 50th anniversary of its founding, Emirati officials celebrated Mr. al-Raisi’s selection. Interior Minister Saif bin Zayed Al Nahyan said it demonstrated “the world’s confidence” in the oil-rich Gulf nation.

But Sayed Ahmed Alwadaei, an activist with the Bahrain Institute for Rights and Democracy, warned Mr. al-Raisi’s election “represents the beginning of a dangerous era, with authoritarian regimes now able to dictate international policing.”

“No one is safe from the abuse of Interpol and authoritarian regimes,” Mr. Alwadaei said in a statement.

Mr. al-Raisi replaces Kim Jong Yan from South Korea, a vice president who was swiftly elected as a replacement to serve out the rest of Mr. Meng’s term.

About 470 police chiefs, ministers and other representatives from more than 160 countries attended the three-day meeting. Each country attending has one vote.

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DougMacG

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Re: China vs. the World; Chinese political intimidation & penetration
« Reply #197 on: November 29, 2021, 10:25:34 AM »
Uganda has issued a fomal document saying they are still within the seven year grace period.

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Re: China vs. the World; Chinese political intimidation & penetration
« Reply #198 on: November 29, 2021, 04:19:49 PM »
Uganda has issued a fomal document saying they are still within the seven year grace period.

Glad to have that updated.  Still it shows China's intentions and methods and seven years goes by fast when you're broke and owe money.

How come we didn't get an airport in Iraq or Afghanistan?  We didn't put in enough money, or we aren't trying to own and rule the world?

DougMacG

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Africa chasing China out?
« Reply #199 on: November 29, 2021, 08:39:41 PM »
« Last Edit: November 29, 2021, 09:44:06 PM by DougMacG »