Author Topic: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold  (Read 513007 times)

Crafty_Dog

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« Last Edit: March 13, 2024, 03:33:43 PM by Crafty_Dog »


Crafty_Dog

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BBG: Bidenflation
« Reply #2902 on: March 13, 2024, 04:51:10 PM »

Amazing how little reporting is being done on this front. You don’t think the media is in the pocket of a certain administration, do you?

https://pjmedia.com/chris-queen/2024/03/13/bidenflation-is-even-worse-than-you-think-n4927264

PS:  Note I added the word "Inflation" to the subject line for you!
« Last Edit: March 13, 2024, 05:13:34 PM by Crafty_Dog »

ya

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ya

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Watch the inflows


DougMacG

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BTC 72k is amazing (But nobody says sell). 

I was most impressed when it fell from 60 to 20 and then held, went down no more.  When it failed to fall further is when neutral skeptics knew it was here to stay and would rise again to higher highs.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD

Another indicator that ya and others were right was that gold did not skyrocket with inflation this time.
https://goldprice.org/gold-price-charts/5-year-gold-price-history-in-us-dollars-per-ounce
That tells me something has changed.


If gold is not the hedge, and real estate is loaded with land mines, taxes, regulation, squatting, lawfare, etc., then what is the hedge against governments mismanaging their countries and currencies?  I don't know like the volatility of bitcoin but what else is there?

With great upside potential confirmed, the most helpful predictions going forward will be what are the future lows again for buying.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2024, 06:49:05 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Decrypt Media
« Reply #2906 on: March 15, 2024, 06:26:01 PM »


What goes up must come down—with crypto, it's almost certain. After notching a new all-time high near $74,000 yesterday, Bitcoin dipped as low as $65,848 this morning, and Ethereum thumped $3,700.

Why the bloodbath? Analysts pointed to $800 million in liquidated short positions, unexpectedly high inflation figures, and Grayscale moving to sell off $400,000 million of Bitcoin.

At the start of the week, Donald Trump raised (more) eyebrows when he seemed to backtrack from previous criticism of Bitcoin and crypto. Now, a new poll shows that crypto holders favor him for U.S. Commander In Chief, 48% to 39% over President Joe Biden.

We knew El Salvador President Nayib Bukele was a big Bitcoin backer, but in announcing that he was moving a sizeable chunk of his nation's holdings to a cold-storage wallet to be kept in a vault, he also revealed a Bitcoin wallet address that's holding 5,689 BTC—far more than previously estimated.

BlueLight

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I suspect he's positioning El Salvador to be a tech hub to attract entrepreneurs and tech talent and such. Same manner as Abu Dhabi. I think they both will be quite successful, a bit more than I'd like. They may end up "brain-draining" the west of the next generations of Elon Musks and Bill Gates.

ccp

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Most of the job growth is to illegals
« Reply #2908 on: March 16, 2024, 05:29:47 AM »

ya

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My prediction ! We should touch 100 K BTC  latest by Oct 2024, possibly within 30 days.  Note: I have no crystal ball, just an informed guess. Dont take this seriously.

Enjoy the video for those thinking about buying BTC

https://twitter.com/i/status/1769027637182394541
« Last Edit: March 16, 2024, 11:38:16 AM by ya »

Crafty_Dog

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That is very funny.

ya

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BTC hopium from Tim Peterson. He is very conservative, posted a chart showing BTC at 1 million in 2 years


ya

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The real election is the choice between BTC and the USD
« Reply #2912 on: March 17, 2024, 05:11:30 PM »
« Last Edit: March 17, 2024, 05:29:08 PM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: How BTC made a believer out of Blackrock
« Reply #2913 on: March 18, 2024, 07:23:10 AM »
How Bitcoin Made a Believer Out of BlackRock
CEO Larry Fink’s U-turn illustrates Wall Street’s growing desire to capitalize on a market long considered the Wild West of finance

ILLUSTRATION: ALEXANDRA CITRIN-SAFADI/WSJ
By Vicky Ge Huang
March 10, 2024 5:30 am ET


One of crypto’s erstwhile doubters is helping to take bitcoin mainstream.

Larry Fink, the chief executive officer of BlackRock BLK -0.77%decrease; red down pointing triangle, called bitcoin “an index of money laundering” back in 2017 and later rebuffed cryptocurrencies as something his clients weren’t looking to buy.


Today, he says he is a big believer in bitcoin. His firm manages the fastest-growing bitcoin fund and has forged partnerships with some of the largest players in the digital-assets industry.

The U-turn Fink is making at BlackRock has lent legitimacy to bitcoin and signals Wall Street’s growing desire to capitalize on a market that has long been considered the Wild West of finance. By selling bitcoin in a low-cost and popular exchange-traded fund, BlackRock opened the door for mainstream investors to buy and sell bitcoin as easily as stocks.

“We view a core part of our mission as providing choice and access,” Rob Goldstein, BlackRock’s chief operating officer, said in an interview. “This is an important topic for our clients.”

Court rules in favor of Grayscale
SEC approves spot bitcoin ETF
July 2023
'24
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$75,000
Bitcoin’s resilience played a hand in that decision, too. The token’s short history has been dotted with crashes. Yet after each bust, another boom cycle began that attracted more investors. Today, Bitcoin prices are back at record levels and flirting with $70,000, a run that seemed improbable 16 months ago, when the crypto exchange FTX collapsed in spectacular fashion. Bitcoin prices were hovering near $16,000 at that time.

Industry critics said they are surprised by BlackRock’s embrace of crypto in light of the reputational risk the company faces in offering its clients exposure to such a volatile asset.

John Reed Stark, former chief of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Office of Internet Enforcement, said it is obvious that companies such as BlackRock are in the game for the fees.

“The irony is transparent and glaring in that it’s supposed to be decentralized, yet what is more decentralized than a Wall Street behemoth who is taking fees from every single possible angle and peddling something that nobody understands,” he said.

Feb. 2024
March
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BlackRock currently earns an average fee of about 0.19% on assets in its bitcoin ETF. The fund has already hit its fee waiver threshold, which specifies that investors pay 0.12% for the first $5 billion in assets or the first year of the fund’s launch. After the first year, the fee will rise to 0.25%.

BlackRock maintains that it studied the crypto industry for years to come up with a digital-assets strategy and is giving its customers what they want. And bitcoin’s rebound following the 2022 crypto meltdown gave BlackRock conviction to stick to that strategy, according to people familiar with the matter.

BlackRock
Fidelity
ARK 21Shares
Bitwise
Valkyrie
Invesco Galaxy
Franklin Templeton
WisdomTree
VanEck
Grayscale
-$10 billion
-$7.5
-$5
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$0
$2.5
$5
$7.5
$10
BlackRock deserves some of the credit for the latest leg of the rally in bitcoin. Of the nine ETFs holding bitcoin that launched in January, its iShares Bitcoin Trust is leading the pack in net inflows. In fact, the ETF is the fastest ever to draw more than $10 billion in assets.

Many mainstream investors began loading up on bitcoin in June when BlackRock entered the race to launch the first fund because of the asset manager’s near-perfect record with ETF applications. A court ruling that forced the SEC to reconsider a competitor’s application added fuel to the fire.

Dennis Kelleher, president and CEO of Better Markets, a group that advocates for oversight of the financial sector, said it is no surprise that BlackRock is quickly becoming a market leader in bitcoin.

“BlackRock has an unmatched market penetration with a peerless distribution network and a marketing powerhouse,” he said. “All of these attributes provide Main Street investors with false comfort.”

BlackRock is taking a view on crypto that is drastically different from that of Vanguard, its biggest rival. Founded by the legendary investor Jack Bogle, Vanguard has said it has no plans to create a spot bitcoin ETF and won’t offer crypto-related products on its brokerage platform. The asset manager, which oversees $8.7 trillion in assets, called bitcoin “more of a speculation than an investment” in a recent blog post.


BlackRock says its digital-assets strategy is based on years of study. PHOTO: JIMIN KIM/SOPA IMAGES/ZUMA PRESS
Beyond the bitcoin ETF, BlackRock has developed partnerships with some of crypto’s biggest players. It holds a minority stake in the stablecoin company Circle Internet Financial and manages more than $25 billion in reserves backing Circle’s USD Coin in a government money-market fund.

BlackRock also teamed up with the crypto exchange Coinbase Global to provide users of the asset manager’s Aladdin software platform with direct access to crypto through an integration with Coinbase’s institutional arm, and BlackRock manages a private bitcoin trust for professional clients. The majority of the clients in the trust, which had grown to more than $250 million in assets, have since moved their money to the new ETF, according to people familiar with the matter.

BlackRock’s embrace of bitcoin was gradual. During the pandemic, Rick Rieder, the firm’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, started dabbling in bitcoin futures in his funds. Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, also helped convert Fink into a bitcoin believer, according to people familiar with the matter.

2022 was the year that Fink’s stance on digital assets began to change visibly.

On an April conference call that year, he said his firm was studying the crypto sector broadly and seeing increased interest from clients. That same month, BlackRock invested in Circle’s $400 million funding round, and by the summer BlackRock had quietly launched the private trust—its first-ever spot bitcoin product for U.S. institutional clients. The company seeded the fund with its own money and expanded it with outside investors.

That year, BlackRock also unveiled a partnership with Coinbase to allow institutional clients who own bitcoin on the crypto exchange to use Aladdin, its suite of software tools, to manage their portfolios and conduct risk analysis. BlackRock now uses Coinbase as a custodian for its spot bitcoin ETF.

BlackRock’s crypto ambitions today extend beyond bitcoin. The asset manager has a pending application with the SEC to launch an ETF holding ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency after bitcoin and the in-house token on the Ethereum blockchain. The regulator has a May deadline to act on several such applications.

Write to Vicky Ge Huang at vicky.huang@wsj.com


ya

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EBITDA
« Reply #2915 on: March 19, 2024, 04:13:47 AM »
« Last Edit: March 19, 2024, 06:11:30 AM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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YA:

What is your message here?

The last time I remember seeing this term was during the Dotcom bubble.

ccp

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Store your gold with private company in Utah
« Reply #2917 on: March 19, 2024, 09:13:00 AM »
https://safehavenvaults.com/gold-storage/

and pay for the storage fees with BTC !    :-D

Crafty_Dog

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FO
« Reply #2918 on: March 19, 2024, 02:29:29 PM »



There was some 'unusual activity" on BitMex last night. A user wanted to sell a lot of Bitcoin very quickly and for 10 minutes, BTC went as low as $8.9K on the exchange. Yeowch.
Markets have since recovered a bit, but there's still a lot of red across the board.
Bankrupt crypto lender Genesis has reached a $21 million settlement with the SEC that includes a permanent injunction. But don't worry creditors and customers: It specifies you'll get your money before the regulator.

ya

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EBITDA: Great explanation, for people less familiar with it.
BTC should never be shorted, or purchased on leverage. That way, you wont lose your position. people with money place market orders to catch these kind of moves.

ya

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ya

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Those following BTC, most of the decline is due to the massive selling by GBTC. Yesterday was 7000 BTC and day before 9600 BTC. Infact, GBTC CEO came out and said, at some point, they will reduce the fees. GBTC has lost half its stack so far. Not clear what is happening or why they are doing this to themselves, probably related to the shenanigans of Barry Silbert/DCG. DCG is bankrupt and they need the high fees to pay off that debt.

Having said that historically, previous 2 halvings have had similar volatility at this stage of the cycle, so this is not outside the ordinary. I still think July-Oct will be a an excellent period, thats what my interpretation of the tea leaves suggest.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2024, 04:28:57 AM by ya »

ccp

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FAy Voshell not a fan of BTC
« Reply #2922 on: March 20, 2024, 05:15:42 AM »
For the few of us hear who will remember Fay Voshell from previous boards:

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/03/the_gospel_of_bitcoin.html

Crafty_Dog

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I remember Fay!  Looks like she can still write!


ccp

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rumor the announcement of digital dollar may come as soon as today
« Reply #2925 on: March 20, 2024, 10:30:07 AM »
and yes inflation is obviously worse

one only has to go to the food store to see everything is up big.
who would have guessed all the government numbers would be slanted

crime is down
inflation near goal
wages up
unemployment down
employment all time high
great replacement theory is nonsense
darien gap is nonsense (far right wing)
on and on

lying to our faces
and yet so many in America just want the government to take care of them.....

and are very happy with this.

Crafty_Dog

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The point about the role of interest rate increases being part of the cost of living was new to me.

Crafty_Dog

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A gold bug newsletter
« Reply #2927 on: March 21, 2024, 05:49:51 PM »

Follow the Gold Telegraph on Twitter

 

Authored by Alex Deluce.

Subscribe to the free newsletter here:

https://www.goldtelegraph.com/gt-community/

This year is shaping up to be a transformational year.

 
Russia and China's energy trade is soaring.

 
China continues to encourage Gulf nations to utilize the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange for yuan-based oil and gas trade settlement.

 
This includes: 

Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Qatar
Kuwait
Bahrain
Oman
As BRICS expanded on January 1st, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates leading the movement to this economic bloc; it's highly expected that more and more local currencies will play a role in trade. 

 
In fact, 

 
China said last August that BRICS members should study local currency cooperation payment tools and platforms and promote local currency settlement, and members should strengthen cross-border payment cooperation.

 
Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister also commented that the Kingdom is the largest BRICS trading partner in the Middle East in total bilateral trade with the countries of the group exceeding $160 billion in 2022.

 
$160 billion. This is massive.

 
This brings us back to the issue of the petrodollar and its impact on the United States. 

 
The connections between the dollar and global energy markets have deep historical roots, such as the 1945 agreement between President Franklin D. Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud, which traded Saudi energy supplies for U.S. security guarantees. 


Over time, a substantial portion of petrodollars earned by oil producers were reinvested in assets like Treasury bonds.

 
But today?

 
We are witnessing many nations divesting from their U.S. treasuries and diversifying their reserves into assets like gold.


This was kicked into high gear following the United States and its allies' decision to freeze around $300 billion of sovereign Russian assets in the West in early 2022.

 
This year alone, we saw 20% of oil transactions settled in currencies other than the dollar.

 
As Saudi Arabia prepares to officially join BRICs, the influence of the petrodollar may begin to wane gradually.

 
One of the most fascinating things in 2023 was when billionaire mining legend Robert Friedland  said that he had been to Saudi Arabia 10 times in the last year and that there was a very active effort from about half of humanity to break the dollar.


He also mentioned that an alternative to the dollar is being worked on, which will likely be backed by precious metals and base metals in an actual basket

 
Saudi Arabia is strategically taking minority stakes in global mining assets worldwide as part of its Vision 2030 to diversify the economy beyond oil.

 
The goal is to transform the Kingdom into a resource hub, particularly for minerals like copper, in response to the global transition that demands increased mineral production due to shortages in many key elements.

 
It is a brilliant strategy.

 
It makes even more sense if these elements start to assume a more prominent role within the framework of the global monetary system.

 
Saudi Arabia's mineral endowment is worth an estimated $1.3 trillion and the Kingdom is also considering establishing gold refineries.

 
If BRICS does indeed back a trading currency with hard assets, no doubt, Saudi Arabia will play a major role.

China is the largest producer of gold.

Saudi Arabia is the leader of OPEC and the OPEC+ group and is the second-largest oil producer.

Saudi Arabia is China's second-largest oil supplier after Russia, and the two countries extensively deepened their ties in 2023.

 
In early 2023, Saudi Arabia said the country was open to discussions about trade in currencies other than the U.S. dollar.

 
In November, China and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement to set up a currency swap line worth around $7 billion.

 
This deal ensures that Saudi Arabia has access to the Chinese currency at a fixed exchange rate, and Beijing has the same access to the Saudi riyal.

 
With the rise of central bank digital currencies, the strategic acquisition of global mining assets and the development of domestic mining resources by BRICS member countries, coupled with the ongoing evolution of global commodity markets, 2024 appears poised to be a transformative year on multiple fronts.

 
I believe strongly in my thesis.

 
Years ago, I mentioned how gold will slowly morph into international trade in a digital structure as nations will need stability, and gold provides that.

 
Currencies around the world are starting to breakdown.

 
If you would like to learn more and follow my writing, please subscribe to my FREE weekly newsletter here: https://www.goldtelegraph.com/gt-community/

ya

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Interesting Interview by Martin Armstrong. I think he is really good with his understanding of global markets, but he is not in favor of BTC. I think understanding of BTC eludes him. Just to be on the safe side, I plan to lighten my BTC position sometime this cycle, but keep some for another 10 years or more.

https://www.smartinvestor.de/2023/03/22/es-scheint-als-wolle-jeder-krieg-2/
« Last Edit: March 23, 2024, 06:01:55 AM by ya »

ya

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Posted by Fiat hawk on X

"Buckle up.  Things are about to get wild.

One thing I rarely see discussed about the game theory of #Bitcoin is that the incentives are aligned in such a way that the game speeds up over time.

During the initial phases of the game, #Bitcoin was a strange foreign idea in cyberspace. It was risky, it was uncertain, it was hard to buy, and hard to store. Only the outcasts, the explorers, and the free thinkers joined during the early wave, and they were handsomely rewarded for doing so.

Now, the talk I frequently hear is that the best gains are behind us. What's the point? I missed Bitcoin. I should have bought it when it was cheap. Etc...

While it is true that the biggest percentage gains are behind us, the biggest and fastest adoption is just around the corner. Also, even if you have dismissed #Bitcoin, the cost of ignoring it will soon become unbearable.

The game theory will soon switch from greed to fear, and for the first time ever, fear will drive #Bitcoin higher and higher instead of lower and lower.

Why is that?

The bitcoin network grows stronger and becomes more valuable with every person that joins.

At the same time, the fiat monetary system becomes weaker with every person that leaves.

While adoption was still tiny, the cost of ignoring Bitcoin was negligible. You missed out on the gains, but otherwise, it was not important. Soon, however, that will no longer be the case. Everyone knows that fiat money is being debased at an accelerating pace. With every person that exits into Bitcoin, it means that those left with fiat will now have to carry the burden of those that have left. In other words, the cost of staying with fiat will exponentially increase over time.

Think about it. Does the national debt decrease if people leave the US? No. The same is true with monetary networks. Unfortunately for those holding fiat, it is a debt-based system, and the people opting out with #Bitcoin no longer have to care or worry about that debt.

This is why the best money always wins, and why there can only be one winner. I also believe that's why the fastest growth in Bitcoin adoption is just ahead of us. It will go from a trickle, to a rush, and end in a stampede.

At some point, you won't be able to exchange fiat for #Bitcoin at any price, and all of your models will be destroyed."

ya

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ya

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ya

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« Last Edit: March 26, 2024, 02:30:02 PM by Crafty_Dog »

ccp

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Symbol *DJT*
« Reply #2933 on: March 26, 2024, 06:20:30 AM »
premarket 63