WSJ FTA: Obama, Clinton, & Biden will be appearing at a fundraiser. Guess some coattails need to be clung to:
Democrats Still Stuck With Biden
Voters don’t think much of the president but also remain wary of the obvious replacement.
The bad news for the White House is that according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Joe Biden remains just as unpopular as he was before giving his State of the Union address. The worse news for Democrats is that there’s not much they can do about it.
This column will offer the usual caveat that polling is not an exact science if it’s even a science. But assume a wide margin for error and this electorate is still very unhappy with the incumbent. This week the Economist/YouGov poll finds that 58% of registered voters don’t want Mr. Biden to run again this fall, compared to just 31% who do.
Even among Democrats the percentage who want Mr. Biden running again is just 50%—though he has recently locked up the nomination to represent their party this fall.
A full 63% of registered voters regard him as a weak leader, compared to the 37% who view him as a strong one.
In another reading that can’t be good for Mr. Biden, when asked if they “feel that things in this country these days” are “under control” or “out of control,” only 15% of registered voters say “under control” while 70% say they feel that things in this country are “out of control.” Looks like an overwhelming endorsement of the thesis advanced by this column’s most celebrated alumnus: Mr. Biden has failed to fulfill the central premise and promise of his 2020 campaign—a return to normal politics.
Meanwhile there’s more discouraging news for the donkeys in the latest Harvard/Harris survey, which finds that most voters doubt Joe Biden’s mental fitness to serve another term as president and believe he’s showing that he’s too old for the job. But they also aren’t eager to embrace the obvious alternative. Harvard/Harris asked the following question:
If Joe Biden decided to drop out at the Democratic convention in August, do you view Kamala Harris as the default replacement or would you want an open contest at the convention among the delegates?
Only 37% of respondents say the vice president should be the default selection while 63% would want an open contest. Republicans overwhelmingly favor an open contest, so perhaps they’re just rooting for uncontrolled division in the rival party. But 70% of independents also favor an open contest.
As for the Democrats, 60% think Ms. Harris should be next in line while 40% would want the contest thrown open. This is a tough reading for any Democratic insiders trying to conceive of a way to finesse Mr. Biden into retirement this summer. The 60% base of party support shows how difficult it would be to jettison Ms. Harris. But the 40% who want an open competition are numerous enough to spark a vigorous summer debate, especially as Democrats contemplate how little appetite there is for a Harris candidacy outside their party.
So the Democrats remain stuck with a presidential nominee whose own Justice Department’s special counsel decided was too forgetful to prosecute despite voluminous evidence of willful law-breaking. So much for a return to normalcy!
Of course across all parties there’s also the question of how much U.S. voters really want normal politicians. The large majority who would prefer an open competition to choose a Biden successor instead of accepting the sitting vice president suggests that there’s still a significant anti-establishment streak among U.S. voters.
Chris Megerian’s report for the Associated Press underlines how different Mr. Biden’s relationship to his party is compared to Donald Trump’s relationship with his:
When President Joe Biden needs advice, there are two people he can turn to who know what it’s like to sit in his chair. Sometimes he will invite Barack Obama over to the White House for a meal or he will get on the phone with Bill Clinton.
…On Thursday, their partnership will be on display in what has been described as a one-of-a-kind fundraising extravaganza in New York City to help Biden build on his already significant cash advantage…
“There is everything to be gained by Joe Biden standing next to Bill Clinton and Barack Obama,” said Leon Panetta, who worked in the administrations of both former presidents. “That picture is worth a hell of a lot in politics today.”
To some it’s a picture of the ultimate establishment politician, and soon we’ll all find out what it’s worth. The AP report continues:
The display of solidarity is a sharp contrast to Donald Trump’s isolation from other Republican leaders.
Now Imagine How Unpopular Biden Will Be in 2054
Perhaps those of us in the media business spend too much time examining and reporting on polling results, which are merely imperfect and ephemeral expressions of opinion. But rest assured that Joe Biden is not one of those unpopular presidents who will become more admired in the fullness of time. A rare president who does not even pretend to care about runaway federal spending, Mr. Biden took office facing a mammoth fiscal problem and has worked diligently to ensure that his successors will have to tackle something far worse. The Congressional Budget Office recently updated its long-term budget forecast:
The deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) over the next 30 years… Debt held by the public, boosted by the large deficits, reaches its highest level ever in 2029 (measured as a percentage of GDP) and then continues to grow, reaching 166 percent of GDP in 2054 and remaining on track to increase thereafter. That mounting debt would slow economic growth, push up interest payments to foreign holders of U.S. debt, and pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook; it could also cause lawmakers to feel more constrained in their policy choices.
You can say that again. And they won’t look back with fondness at the responsible official who felt so weirdly unconstrained by any notion of fiscal soundness.
James Freeman is the co-author of “The Cost: Trump, China and American Revival” and also the co-author of “Borrowed Time: Two Centuries of Booms, Busts and Bailouts at Citi.”
Follow James Freeman on Twitter.
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