Author Topic: PanFa War; Supply Chain, and Sabotage of Food Supply  (Read 19195 times)

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
GPF: Russia hits Europe in the breadbasket
« Reply #200 on: September 21, 2022, 07:33:25 AM »
September 21, 2022
View On Website
Open as PDF

    
Russia Hits Europe in the Bread Basket
When it comes to fertilizers, Europe has no good alternatives.
By: Ekaterina Zolotova
It’s autumn in Europe, which for European farmers means it’s time to start placing orders for fertilizer for the spring. Of course, prices have been much higher recently. World nitrogen prices are up significantly since the start of 2021, driven by elevated demand for agricultural produce and pandemic-related supply disruptions. European prices of natural gas – a factor in nitrogen-based fertilizer production – since the second half of 2021 have shot up by even more. And the elevated price of nitrogen fertilizers has already pushed purchasers toward phosphorus or potash fertilizers, bringing their prices to multiyear highs as well. Then, in February 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was added to the mix.

Higher energy and fertilizer prices means higher food prices, without a fanciful surge in output or state intervention. This will increase the risk of social unrest in Europe, a major concern for European governments and the European Union. It’s clear that Europe must do something, but the most important factors in the soaring costs are the war in Ukraine and – indirectly, in the case of fertilizers – Western sanctions against Russia. For Moscow, one of the world’s largest producers of natural gas and nitrogen fertilizers, this is crucial leverage, which it will use to try to extract significant concessions on sanctions. Europe’s next best alternative — finding supplies somewhere else in the next few months – is unlikely to pan out, and it may eventually have to give the Kremlin some of what it wants.

Disruptions, Real and Imagined

Put a large market with lots of manufacturing capacity next to a treasure trove of natural resources, and you get interdependence. Over the years, infrastructure and commercial linkages, made possible by proximity and circumstance, have tied the European and Russian markets together. In addition to being a massive natural gas exporter, Russia supplies approximately 45 percent of the world’s ammonia nitrate fertilizers, 20 percent of potash fertilizers and just under 15 percent of phosphate fertilizers. Most of this production goes to Europe. Russia receives a constant influx of foreign currency, reinforcing the regime’s stability. Europe, most of the time, receives a cheap, steady flow of critical inputs: About 40 percent of its gas imports and, for example, about a third of its ammonium for the production of fertilizers. Roughly a quarter of Europe’s fertilizers are imported from Russia, and together with Belarus, a Russian ally, provides more than half of Europe’s potash fertilizers.

Fertilizer Nutrients and Imports' Share in EU Consumption
(click to enlarge)

EU Fertilizer Production by Nutrient, 2019
(click to enlarge)

Since December 2021, the Kremlin has had quotas in effect on exports of nitrogen and compound nitrogen fertilizers to states outside the Eurasian Economic Union, but those quotas have been gradually relaxed without spurring a significant increase in Russian fertilizer exports to Europe. Western sanctions do contribute, but not directly. There are sanctions in effect that target individuals who run Russian fertilizer companies, but no measures target the fertilizers themselves. The European Union did adopt a quota on the import of Russian potassium fertilizers for one year, but the quota limit is very close to typical trade volumes. Instead, the effect of Western sanctions is mostly transmitted through logistics and finance.

In terms of logistics, Baltic ports that usually receive shipments have become less accessible to Russian producers. Buyers have encountered difficulties chartering large bulk carriers, forcing them to rely on smaller vessels and raising transport costs and delivery times. Financially, some Russian banks are blocked from using SWIFT, the dominant messaging system for interbank transactions. As a result, payments are more complicated, and some potential buyers are avoiding Russia entirely for fear of blowback. In total, nearly 300,000 tons of fertilizers are reportedly blocked from European ports and can’t reach the buyers.

Toliatti-Gorlovka-Odessa Ammonia Pipeline
(click to enlarge)

With respect to ammonia specifically, the war in Ukraine is a direct obstacle to the delivery of supplies. The 2,500-kilometer (1,550-mile) Togliatti-Gorlovka-Odesa pipeline is capable of transporting 2.5 million tons of ammonia per year from Russia’s Volga region to the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Yuzhny, near Odesa. But it also happens to traverse the parts of Ukraine witnessing the most intense fighting, including Kharkiv. And since ammonia is highly toxic and corrosive, the war is a problem.

Europe’s Options

An additional problem for Europe is the lack of alternative suppliers. Domestically, the nearly 30 percent increase in natural gas prices put a damper on Europe’s own fertilizer production. As much as 15 million tons of European ammonia capacity has been shuttered or is at risk of it, equivalent to almost a third of Europe’s annual output. Producers of nitrogen fertilizers face significant competition for scarce natural gas from other industries as well as households. And Europe lacks the capacity to significantly raise production of other types of fertilizers. Ideally, Europe would try to develop homegrown resources –preferably not nitrogen, whose processing for fertilizers requires lots of natural gas. Mines in east Germany have started test-drilling for potassium, but again, it would take time to spin those up to meaningful production levels.

European buyers have reached out to other gas and fertilizer producers in the Middle East, North Africa and Canada. The bloc is discussing natural gas with Algeria and fertilizer with Morocco, which already provides 40 percent of Europe’s phosphate imports and contains more than 75 percent of proven world reserves of phosphorite. But Europe faces obstacles here as well. Gas-producing countries are already taking advantage of their access to cheaper gas and running fertilizer plants producing nitrogen at near full capacity. Quickly raising production of other fertilizers is even more difficult. Lastly, importing more fertilizers does nothing to help domestic fertilizer firms stay afloat.

European Fertilizer Consumption by Crop
(click to enlarge)

Then there are the long lead times. Although fertilizer is usually applied a couple of months before planting season (February-March), farmers usually order fertilizer between September and November. The European Union is working on a strategy to increase domestic fertilizer production, protect and create jobs, and diversify supplies, but such a reform will take more time than Europe has – and possibly more unity too.

This leaves Europe with two options: muddle through, or compromise with Russia. Already, there are indications that Europe is investigating the latter. According to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the West is discussing increasing ammonia nitrate supplies through the pipeline in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already given his support to the idea. And the United Nations proposed that gaseous ammonia owned by Russian fertilizer maker Uralchem be piped to the border with Ukraine, where U.S.-based trader Trammo would buy it.

Compromised

But Russia is aware that Europe does not have many options, so Moscow is in no hurry to respond to appeals to make better use of the Togliatti-Gorlovka-Odesa pipeline. The Kremlin intends to squeeze Europe to, for instance, ease restrictions on logistics or payment for Russian goods. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently called on Europe to ease restrictions on port access for fertilizer shipments bound not just for Europe but for non-European markets as well. Several ports, including Rotterdam and Finland’s Kotka, have responded positively to proposals to make exceptions for Russian fertilizers. However, Brussels is nervous that simplifying logistics or otherwise easing up the pressure will restore maritime or rail connections and give Russia more access to foreign currency and trade.

Given the likely shortages of fertilizers for the spring, the prospects for Europe’s 2023 harvest are murky but downbeat. Moscow can use the situation to promote its interests and seek favorable contract terms. It will delay restoration of pipeline supplies for as long as possible under various pretexts, from unexpected repairs to retribution for refusal to pay in rubles. Therefore, food prices are unlikely to stabilize by next summer, and prices in the EU as a whole will remain elevated, heaping more pressure on the bloc.

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: GPF: Russia hits Europe in the breadbasket
« Reply #201 on: September 21, 2022, 01:24:05 PM »
Don't worry about the Russian military, food and energy is how Putin breaks NATO and the EU.


September 21, 2022
View On Website
Open as PDF

    
Russia Hits Europe in the Bread Basket
When it comes to fertilizers, Europe has no good alternatives.
By: Ekaterina Zolotova
It’s autumn in Europe, which for European farmers means it’s time to start placing orders for fertilizer for the spring. Of course, prices have been much higher recently. World nitrogen prices are up significantly since the start of 2021, driven by elevated demand for agricultural produce and pandemic-related supply disruptions. European prices of natural gas – a factor in nitrogen-based fertilizer production – since the second half of 2021 have shot up by even more. And the elevated price of nitrogen fertilizers has already pushed purchasers toward phosphorus or potash fertilizers, bringing their prices to multiyear highs as well. Then, in February 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was added to the mix.

Higher energy and fertilizer prices means higher food prices, without a fanciful surge in output or state intervention. This will increase the risk of social unrest in Europe, a major concern for European governments and the European Union. It’s clear that Europe must do something, but the most important factors in the soaring costs are the war in Ukraine and – indirectly, in the case of fertilizers – Western sanctions against Russia. For Moscow, one of the world’s largest producers of natural gas and nitrogen fertilizers, this is crucial leverage, which it will use to try to extract significant concessions on sanctions. Europe’s next best alternative — finding supplies somewhere else in the next few months – is unlikely to pan out, and it may eventually have to give the Kremlin some of what it wants.

Disruptions, Real and Imagined

Put a large market with lots of manufacturing capacity next to a treasure trove of natural resources, and you get interdependence. Over the years, infrastructure and commercial linkages, made possible by proximity and circumstance, have tied the European and Russian markets together. In addition to being a massive natural gas exporter, Russia supplies approximately 45 percent of the world’s ammonia nitrate fertilizers, 20 percent of potash fertilizers and just under 15 percent of phosphate fertilizers. Most of this production goes to Europe. Russia receives a constant influx of foreign currency, reinforcing the regime’s stability. Europe, most of the time, receives a cheap, steady flow of critical inputs: About 40 percent of its gas imports and, for example, about a third of its ammonium for the production of fertilizers. Roughly a quarter of Europe’s fertilizers are imported from Russia, and together with Belarus, a Russian ally, provides more than half of Europe’s potash fertilizers.

Fertilizer Nutrients and Imports' Share in EU Consumption
(click to enlarge)

EU Fertilizer Production by Nutrient, 2019
(click to enlarge)

Since December 2021, the Kremlin has had quotas in effect on exports of nitrogen and compound nitrogen fertilizers to states outside the Eurasian Economic Union, but those quotas have been gradually relaxed without spurring a significant increase in Russian fertilizer exports to Europe. Western sanctions do contribute, but not directly. There are sanctions in effect that target individuals who run Russian fertilizer companies, but no measures target the fertilizers themselves. The European Union did adopt a quota on the import of Russian potassium fertilizers for one year, but the quota limit is very close to typical trade volumes. Instead, the effect of Western sanctions is mostly transmitted through logistics and finance.

In terms of logistics, Baltic ports that usually receive shipments have become less accessible to Russian producers. Buyers have encountered difficulties chartering large bulk carriers, forcing them to rely on smaller vessels and raising transport costs and delivery times. Financially, some Russian banks are blocked from using SWIFT, the dominant messaging system for interbank transactions. As a result, payments are more complicated, and some potential buyers are avoiding Russia entirely for fear of blowback. In total, nearly 300,000 tons of fertilizers are reportedly blocked from European ports and can’t reach the buyers.

Toliatti-Gorlovka-Odessa Ammonia Pipeline
(click to enlarge)

With respect to ammonia specifically, the war in Ukraine is a direct obstacle to the delivery of supplies. The 2,500-kilometer (1,550-mile) Togliatti-Gorlovka-Odesa pipeline is capable of transporting 2.5 million tons of ammonia per year from Russia’s Volga region to the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Yuzhny, near Odesa. But it also happens to traverse the parts of Ukraine witnessing the most intense fighting, including Kharkiv. And since ammonia is highly toxic and corrosive, the war is a problem.

Europe’s Options

An additional problem for Europe is the lack of alternative suppliers. Domestically, the nearly 30 percent increase in natural gas prices put a damper on Europe’s own fertilizer production. As much as 15 million tons of European ammonia capacity has been shuttered or is at risk of it, equivalent to almost a third of Europe’s annual output. Producers of nitrogen fertilizers face significant competition for scarce natural gas from other industries as well as households. And Europe lacks the capacity to significantly raise production of other types of fertilizers. Ideally, Europe would try to develop homegrown resources –preferably not nitrogen, whose processing for fertilizers requires lots of natural gas. Mines in east Germany have started test-drilling for potassium, but again, it would take time to spin those up to meaningful production levels.

European buyers have reached out to other gas and fertilizer producers in the Middle East, North Africa and Canada. The bloc is discussing natural gas with Algeria and fertilizer with Morocco, which already provides 40 percent of Europe’s phosphate imports and contains more than 75 percent of proven world reserves of phosphorite. But Europe faces obstacles here as well. Gas-producing countries are already taking advantage of their access to cheaper gas and running fertilizer plants producing nitrogen at near full capacity. Quickly raising production of other fertilizers is even more difficult. Lastly, importing more fertilizers does nothing to help domestic fertilizer firms stay afloat.

European Fertilizer Consumption by Crop
(click to enlarge)

Then there are the long lead times. Although fertilizer is usually applied a couple of months before planting season (February-March), farmers usually order fertilizer between September and November. The European Union is working on a strategy to increase domestic fertilizer production, protect and create jobs, and diversify supplies, but such a reform will take more time than Europe has – and possibly more unity too.

This leaves Europe with two options: muddle through, or compromise with Russia. Already, there are indications that Europe is investigating the latter. According to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the West is discussing increasing ammonia nitrate supplies through the pipeline in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already given his support to the idea. And the United Nations proposed that gaseous ammonia owned by Russian fertilizer maker Uralchem be piped to the border with Ukraine, where U.S.-based trader Trammo would buy it.

Compromised

But Russia is aware that Europe does not have many options, so Moscow is in no hurry to respond to appeals to make better use of the Togliatti-Gorlovka-Odesa pipeline. The Kremlin intends to squeeze Europe to, for instance, ease restrictions on logistics or payment for Russian goods. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently called on Europe to ease restrictions on port access for fertilizer shipments bound not just for Europe but for non-European markets as well. Several ports, including Rotterdam and Finland’s Kotka, have responded positively to proposals to make exceptions for Russian fertilizers. However, Brussels is nervous that simplifying logistics or otherwise easing up the pressure will restore maritime or rail connections and give Russia more access to foreign currency and trade.

Given the likely shortages of fertilizers for the spring, the prospects for Europe’s 2023 harvest are murky but downbeat. Moscow can use the situation to promote its interests and seek favorable contract terms. It will delay restoration of pipeline supplies for as long as possible under various pretexts, from unexpected repairs to retribution for refusal to pay in rubles. Therefore, food prices are unlikely to stabilize by next summer, and prices in the EU as a whole will remain elevated, heaping more pressure on the bloc.

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
Re: PanFa War; Supply Chain issues
« Reply #202 on: September 21, 2022, 03:11:20 PM »


Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
GPF: Little cause for short-term optimisim
« Reply #204 on: October 02, 2022, 04:04:56 AM »
September 30, 2022
View On Website
Open as PDF

    
Global Food Insecurity
There is little cause for short-term optimism.
By: Geopolitical Futures
Food Insecurity and Hunger Hotspots
(click to enlarge)

Widespread food insecurity is back on the table. War and organized violence are the main drivers of acute food insecurity, followed by weather events and post-pandemic economic disruption. For some places this is a near-constant problem, but right now there are several new areas experiencing difficulty. In the Americas, for instance, migration, organized crime and abusive government policies have put food security at risk. Ukraine stands out not only for its own food issues but also its role as a provider of food for the rest of the world. In North Korea and Myanmar (and to a lesser extent Sri Lanka), food insecurity could destabilize regimes and cause regional crises.

There is little reason to believe the global situation will improve anytime soon. A prolonged Russia-Ukraine war will have lasting effects on local production and grain export infrastructure that will take many months, if not years, to repair. And distortions in the fertilizer market and high prices will also affect crop prices in 2023.

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
Re: PanFa War; Supply Chain issues
« Reply #205 on: October 08, 2022, 06:03:13 PM »
With the hit on NS 2 (by America?) and now on the Kerch Bridge (presumably by the Ukes) do others begin to get similar ideas e.g. hitting the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, transoceanic internet cables, etc?

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: PanFa War; Supply Chain issues
« Reply #206 on: October 08, 2022, 08:36:16 PM »
With the hit on NS 2 (by America?) and now on the Kerch Bridge (presumably by the Ukes) do others begin to get similar ideas e.g. hitting the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, transoceanic internet cables, etc?

I would assume that Russia will serving us some cold dishes, especially once winter arrives in N America.

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 18129
    • View Profile
Re: PanFa War; Supply Chain issues
« Reply #207 on: October 09, 2022, 05:35:50 AM »
With the hit on NS 2 (by America?) and now on the Kerch Bridge (presumably by the Ukes) do others begin to get similar ideas e.g. hitting the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, transoceanic internet cables, etc?

The bridge is a big deal.  Yes, presumably the Ukrainians did it (since they are at war).  Are we waiting for the Russian retaliation, or are they already blowing up everything they can?

The pipeline attacks are a mystery to me.  Very hard to do armchair geopolitics (and war) right now from a half world away without knowing who did that and why.

Biden said (implied?) we would do it.  One post here opined the US did it, "100% chance".  I don't buy it, (and I don't have a better theory).  Just that Biden's lips moving and reality have no correlation.

IF the US did it, what is Putin's retaliation?

IF anti-energy, anti-pipeline people did it, how?  And why?  Too strange to believe.

For Russia', the pipelines are itheir cash register.  For Europe, it is life saving energy.  No motive.

Meanwhile, Yes, we should increase security on canals etc.

Or as some (not me) might say, not in the US, not our problem.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2022, 05:41:11 AM by DougMacG »

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: PanFa War; Supply Chain issues
« Reply #208 on: October 09, 2022, 07:54:31 AM »
With the hit on NS 2 (by America?) and now on the Kerch Bridge (presumably by the Ukes) do others begin to get similar ideas e.g. hitting the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, transoceanic internet cables, etc?

The bridge is a big deal.  Yes, presumably the Ukrainians did it (since they are at war).  Are we waiting for the Russian retaliation, or are they already blowing up everything they can?

The pipeline attacks are a mystery to me.  Very hard to do armchair geopolitics (and war) right now from a half world away without knowing who did that and why.

Biden said (implied?) we would do it.  One post here opined the US did it, "100% chance".  I don't buy it, (and I don't have a better theory).  Just that Biden's lips moving and reality have no correlation.

IF the US did it, what is Putin's retaliation?

IF anti-energy, anti-pipeline people did it, how?  And why?  Too strange to believe.

For Russia', the pipelines are itheir cash register.  For Europe, it is life saving energy.  No motive.

Meanwhile, Yes, we should increase security on canals etc.

Or as some (not me) might say, not in the US, not our problem.

It prevents Germany from cutting a side deal with Russia, after Germans get tired of freezing this winter.

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
Re: PanFa War; Supply Chain issues
« Reply #209 on: October 09, 2022, 01:59:42 PM »
Concur.

Also, solidifies demand for the new pipeline out of Norway.

Here's this from MY today:

https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2859902/natural-gas-problems-and-islands-of-doom

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 18129
    • View Profile
Re: PanFa War; Supply Chain issues
« Reply #210 on: October 10, 2022, 06:09:22 AM »
"Concur"

Crafty, do you believe the US under Biden blew up the energy supply line to Europe - with winter coming?

If yes, implications?

If no, whodunnit?

What does ya think?

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
Re: PanFa War; Supply Chain issues
« Reply #211 on: October 10, 2022, 10:06:12 AM »
"It prevents Germany from cutting a side deal with Russia, after Germans get tired of freezing this winter."

This makes sense to me.  Indeed, enabling Germany to backstab its East Europe allies was precisely the point of the NSs IMHO.

So, qui bono?

America?  Poland?  Norway?

Given Biden's statement in 2/21 and the military-tech capabilities required, I'm guessing it was us, though giving a wink to someone else is entirely possible as well.


Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
Belarus sees famine coming?
« Reply #213 on: October 10, 2022, 10:40:18 AM »

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
MY!!!
« Reply #216 on: October 22, 2022, 04:14:51 PM »

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile


Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
Diesel inventory
« Reply #219 on: October 24, 2022, 06:10:48 AM »
US Has Only 25 Days of Diesel Supply; Shortage Could Cripple Economy
By Jack Phillips October 23, 2022 Updated: October 23, 2022biggersmaller Print
The United States is down to 25 days of diesel supply as a top White House official declared the stockpile levels to be “unacceptably low.”

Data provided by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that diesel stockpiles are at their lowest level for October in records that date back to 1993, according to a Bloomberg News analysis. EIA data show that the United States, as of Oct. 14, has 25.4 days of supply—down from 34.2 days of supply four weeks prior.

National Economic Council Director Brian Deese, a top adviser to President Joe Biden, told Bloomberg News last week that current diesel levels are “unacceptably” low and that “all options are on the table” to increase supplies.

The diesel crunch comes just over two weeks before the November 2022 midterm elections and will likely drive up prices even more. Diesel is the fuel used by freight trains and commonly used by long-haul truckers to transport goods and food.

“Most of the products we use are transported by trucks and trains with diesel engines, and most construction, farming, and military vehicles and equipment also have diesel engines,” the EIA’s website states. “As a transportation fuel, diesel fuel offers a wide range of performance, efficiency, and safety features. Diesel fuel also has a greater energy density than other liquid fuels, so it provides more useful energy per unit of volume.”

Prices, meanwhile, remain relatively elevated, according to AAA data. The average price for a gallon of diesel stands at around $5.33 nationwide, or up nearly $2 since the same time in 2021, the data shows.

Wholesale diesel prices at the New York spot market spiked last week to more than $200 per barrel.

It comes as the Biden administration recently announced it would release another 15 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, part of the 180 million Biden authorized in March, that Republicans say is a bid to keep Democrats politically afloat ahead of the midterms. But Biden and his allies say that it’s not a political tactic, and the administration says it will refill the reserve when prices drop to $67–$72 per barrel.

“The United States government is going to purchase oil to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when prices fall to $70 a barrel,” Biden said on Oct. 19. “And that means oil companies can invest to ramp up production now, with confidence they’ll be able to sell their oil to us at that price in the future: $70.”

The move came after the International Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) announced that it would cut oil production.

“Now, after draining our emergency reserves to a 40-year low, Democrats want billions more of taxpayer dollars to refill the [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] at more than double the price,” Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told the New York Post last week. “This is a direct attack on every single American struggling to fill their tanks and heat their homes.”

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 18129
    • View Profile
Re: Drought causing barges to get stuck on the Mississippi River
« Reply #220 on: October 24, 2022, 09:09:56 AM »
https://www.theepochtimes.com/commercial-barge-lines-struggle-as-drought-stricken-mississippi-river-levels-plummet_4813431.html?utm_source=News&src_src=News&utm_campaign=breaking-2022-10-23-2&src_cmp=breaking-2022-10-23-2&utm_medium=email&est=C6KWaf3sNLqPKd55ES8zhZeKlnF5zTBx8oQsA27wYF3Z6Bc2%2F9vHcJid5q0JiYa%2FSp4%2B


Yes.  Low water levels.  Lowest in 10 years.  In other words, well within normal range.  Droughts are normal.

Shipping grain downstream by barges on rivers is not only efficient, it's almost free to ship massive volumes.

And then when the water levels are low, in a resilient economy, you ship it some other way.

Problem is, all other ways of 'shipping', like trucks and trains running on diesel (oops, what diesel?), run head-on into the chosen war on fossil fuels.  And now we're screwed.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Widespread drought, by the way, is not caused by the combustion of fossil fuels:

CH4 + 2 O2  =  CO2 + 2 H20

For natural gas used to heat water and heat our homes, 2 molecules of H2O are emitted for every hydrocarbon molecule combusted.

Twice as much water created as CO2.  Who knew.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2022, 09:21:07 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile


Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
Grain leaving Ukraine despite deal suspension
« Reply #223 on: October 31, 2022, 11:32:14 AM »
Daily Memo: Ukrainian Grain Leaves Port Despite Deal Suspension
Kyiv organized a plan with mediators to ensure its grain can still leave Ukrainian ports, for now.
By: Geopolitical Futures

Deal is off. Russia announced over the weekend that it was suspending its participation in a U.N.-backed deal that facilitated the transport of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea. Moscow said the move was in response to a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet, though Russia had raised doubts about the agreement's future for weeks. Wheat futures jumped more than 5 percent on Monday, and corn futures rose more than 2 percent. Still, the U.N., Ukraine and Turkey, which helped broker the deal, agreed on a plan to sail some ships stocked with Ukrainian wheat through the Black Sea despite Russia's withdrawal. The original agreement was reached in July to help ease food shortages, particularly in developing countries, but Moscow has repeatedly criticized its execution, claiming that most of the ships went to Europe instead.

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
Re: PanFa War; Supply Chain issues
« Reply #224 on: November 17, 2022, 01:04:51 PM »
November 17, 2022
View On Website
Open as PDF

    
Daily Memo: Ukraine Grain Deal Extended
The agreement was meant to alleviate global food shortages.
By: Geopolitical Futures

Making deals. The deal that enabled Ukrainian grain to be exported through the Black Sea will be extended by 120 days, according to the president of Turkey, who helped mediate the agreement. He thanked U.N., Ukrainian and Russian leaders for negotiating the extension. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday that Russian fertilizer deliveries to Africa via a special corridor through Europe will begin in the coming weeks. The arrangement seems to be a Western concession to Moscow, which had earlier indicated that an extension of the grain deal would be conditioned on fertilizer deliveries.


Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile


Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 18353
    • View Profile
Re: PanFa War; Supply Chain issues
« Reply #230 on: December 30, 2022, 07:08:53 AM »
I had a patient yrs ago

who was a train/train track buff

and yes he took pictures and was even in some sort of club

he would come in and show me pictures and talk about it.

I never quite understood what attracted him to this

perhaps the romanticism of associating trains with  travel, intrigue, getting away,
 leaving, arriving, starting over, change scenery,  or something like that

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
Zeihan: Holodomor 2
« Reply #234 on: January 26, 2023, 03:00:20 AM »


Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
Re: PanFa War; Supply Chain issues
« Reply #236 on: February 08, 2023, 11:03:12 AM »
Never able to see your media.gab posts.

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: PanFa War; Supply Chain issues
« Reply #237 on: February 08, 2023, 01:01:39 PM »
Never able to see your media.gab posts.

Have you tried clicking on the links?

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
Re: PanFa War; Supply Chain issues
« Reply #238 on: February 08, 2023, 03:13:53 PM »
Duh.  My point is when I do click I get a Not Allowed to See type response.

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: PanFa War; Supply Chain issues
« Reply #239 on: February 08, 2023, 05:52:39 PM »
Duh.  My point is when I do click I get a Not Allowed to See type response.

Is this new? Anyone else having this problem?


G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Imagine if we had a deliberate sabotage of American infrastructure?
« Reply #241 on: February 18, 2023, 04:47:23 PM »
https://twitter.com/DC_Draino/status/1627093225579360258

Would it look different than what we are seeing now?

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
Re: PanFa War; Supply Chain, and Sabotage issues
« Reply #242 on: February 19, 2023, 02:22:18 AM »
You make a good point here that sabotage need not be limited to food supply.

That said, I'm thinking sabotage issues will organize better in the Homeland Security thread than here and I now change the subject heading in that thread to so reflect.

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile



Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
GPF: Russia-Egypt
« Reply #246 on: March 10, 2023, 11:25:16 AM »
Food security. Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on Thursday with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi. Top of the agenda was food security. Putin outlined Russia’s approach to the deals to allow Ukrainian grain shipments through the Black Sea and the export of fertilizer from Russia to international markets. Countries dependent on Ukrainian supplies are concerned about the future of the grain deal, which expires on March 18. Egypt’s Ministry of Internal Trade recently estimated that current wheat stocks could meet domestic demand for four and a half months.


Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
Zeihan: Uh oh
« Reply #248 on: March 20, 2023, 05:58:57 AM »

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 69127
    • View Profile
Zeihan: Argentina and Ukraine
« Reply #249 on: March 22, 2023, 07:32:33 PM »