Author Topic: Michael Brewer:  (Read 848 times)

Crafty_Dog

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Michael Brewer:
« on: May 06, 2025, 11:10:40 AM »
Starting this thread for my friend Michael to post his various writings here for us:

F.Danconia

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Re: Michael Brewer:
« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2025, 11:13:17 AM »
Thank you, Sir!  Incoming fire arriving directly!

I'm not sure if this post will end up becoming a series or not.  It may, because it's a big topic and there are a lot of layers to peel back.  Like an onion.  Or an ogre.  But I digress.

I want to talk China and what a lot of people are reading as erratic or impulsive and unpredictable behavior from President Trump.  There are two core pieces of reading that you need to do in order to understand this stuff.  It is my studied opinion that if you don't do this reading, you're just not equipped to grasp what's actually happening, or what has been happening since about 1999 or 2000.

I realize a lot has happened in the past 25 years and a lot of new doctrinal treatments have been written, but these two are the only ones that still maintain an across-the-board trackability with the global events we see in the real world.  There are other things you should read, yes.  There are other things that will provide depth and context, yes.  But these remain rock solid as what we used to call a "baseline assessment."  That is, the assessment which allows accurate predictive analysis based on new information, and which is unlikely to materially change without major shifts in status quo. 
Those two resources are: "Unrestricted Warfare: China's Master Plan to Destroy America" by: Qiao Liang, Wang Xiangsui and the companion primer and analysis of that work, "War Without Rules: China's Playbook for Global Domination" by: Gen. Robert Spalding.  I got them both on Audible, but it's worth getting hard copies so you can highlight and make notes as well.

Ok, preamble complete, so now for the point:
A lot of people are mistakenly casting President Trump's actions as chaotic or impulsive.  That doesn't track with a man who has expressed the exact same opinions about this kind of thing publicly for 40 years or more.  Consider -
He has reinvigorated U.S. defense spending—not just more money, but targeted innovation to counter future threats (read: China).  He launched Space Force and set a 2027 deadline to counter China in orbit. That’s not politics. That’s urgency backed by classified intelligence.  His tariff brinksmanship wasn’t economic chaos, no matter how disruptive it may seem.  It was strategic pressure to reveal where China’s power was bluff, and where it was existential.  We see that in the quiet, behind-the-scenes, face-saving exemptions China is conceding every day.  None of this makes sense if you're treating China like a trade partner. It makes perfect sense if you understand it as unrestricted warfare.

The flip side of that is laid out plainly in Unrestricted Warfare.  China recognized after Desert Storm that it had a larger military than Iraq, but not necessarily a better one.  They saw what happened to Saddam's forces and took it seriously.  They knew they had to wage a war of undermining America and its Western allies without pissing them off enough to resort to military action.

Rather than building tanks to face our tanks or planes to dogfight our F-22s, China began building influence networks, financial traps, industrial espionage programs, and tech pipelines disguised as "joint ventures." They invested heavily in a new type of warrior - professorial types peering through thick glasses at computer screens alongside leagues and leagues of their peers, hacking into computer systems around the globe.  Their war wouldn’t be declared—it would be waged invisibly, through global institutions, media, supply chains, trade manipulation, currency manipulation, intellectual property theft, fentanyl pipelines, and coercive diplomacy.

President Trump’s actions looked erratic only to those unfamiliar with China’s long game. But if you’ve read Unrestricted Warfare and Gen. Spalding’s War Without Rules, you realize: he wasn’t lashing out. He was finally countering in a meaningful way.  China knows it.  It's one of the big reasons they're scrambling right now.

This may end up becoming a Journal post at some point, depending on the level of interest it gets here.  I'm sensing it's at a length that will start losing folks, though, so that's it for now.  More to follow.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Michael Brewer:
« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2025, 11:39:47 AM »
You've had several quality posts elsewhere in recent days.   Would love for you to include them here.


F.Danconia

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Re: Michael Brewer:
« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2025, 12:28:24 PM »
This was one of the biggest ones:  My analysis of the 700+ pages of declassified material on the Russian Collusion hoax.

Excerpt:

The Crossfire Hurricane investigation wasn’t just a scandal. It wasn’t just a smear. It was the single most dangerous abuse of federal power in modern American history. And if you don’t think it can happen again, you haven’t been paying attention. I used to be a part of this machine, and believe me when I tell you, every good intelligence officer believes to their core in the Constitution, and works each day with earnest integrity, no matter who sits in the Oval Office, to provide the ground truth. For better or worse, no matter how mad anybody gets about it, we all know that the Commander in Chief has to have the clear and unvarnished picture of what’s over the horizon. He needs it for the good of the country and for each and every citizen we call our fellow Americans. This sham of an investigation undermined my lifelong faith and commitment to those agencies. The corruption I’ve witnessed, and that we can now all see laid bare in the release of these seven binders, breaks my heart in a way that isn’t easy to put into words. It simply has to be put right.

https://danconiajournal.substack.com/p/crossfire-hurricane-unpacked

F.Danconia

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Re: Michael Brewer:
« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2025, 12:30:29 PM »
Here's one I did regarding the Hunter Biden Laptop and the Dirty 51 Letter.  I don't think people really understand what a critical issue this is, even though it's mostly sat dormant for five years:

Excerpt:
The laptop was damning. In plain English, it confirmed what everyone from Peter Schweizer to the Trump campaign had been alleging for years: the Biden Crime Family was real—and their business dealings, especially with Ukraine and China, were corrupt to the core. Emails. Text messages. Photos. Videos. Records of drug use. Sexual misconduct. Under-the-table business dealings in China and Ukraine, with repeated references to "the Big Guy"—whom sources identified as Joe Biden. It was all there.

Here’s what’s crucial: the FBI had had that laptop since December 2019. For nearly a year, the Bureau had access to every byte, every email, every hard drive signature. And the truth was never in doubt. The laptop was real. The data was authentic. Internal communications, forensic verification, and interagency contacts confirmed its origin, and that information was shared with inquiring fellow intelligence agencies across the Potomac.

In the face of such damning evidence, the Biden White House did what it always seemed to do. Orchestrated a mass cover-up and weaponized the government. Senior former intelligence officials—at the urging of political operatives within the Biden campaign—decided to lie. To all of us.

https://danconiajournal.substack.com/p/the-great-big-fat-one-lie-that-is

F.Danconia

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Trump's Search for Reckoning
« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2025, 12:36:26 PM »
https://danconiajournal.substack.com/p/the-reckoning

“It’s not revenge he’s after. It’s a reckoning.”
— Val Kilmer as Doc Holliday, Tombstone

There’s a persistent and deliberate falsehood making the rounds in the press that Donald Trump’s efforts to cut waste, root out corruption, and hold bureaucrats accountable constitute some kind of authoritarian power grab or Constitutional crisis. That narrative isn’t just wrong—it’s exactly backward. What we’re witnessing isn’t an extra-Constitutional attempt to remake government in Trump’s image. It’s a long-overdue course correction, undertaken entirely within the bounds of the Constitution and in line with both historical precedent and the Founders’ intent.

I opened with a great quote from the movie Tombstone. In the scene from which that quote is drawn, Wyatt Earp shows up at the train station to counter-ambush the bandits who’ve been sent to kill him and his family members. It’s an important line in the movie because it shows a key difference between Doc Holliday - renegade gunslinger - and Wyatt Earp - lawman. Doc would have sought revenge had he been wronged the way Wyatt was. But Wyatt wasn’t looking for petty revenge. He wanted justice, a reckoning. To understand the difference, and to really learn why the anti-Trump narrative about authoritarian disregard for the Constitution is so misguided, let’s turn to the source of all of our government’s authority and to the words of the people who codified it all for us.

The Constitution is not ambiguous when it comes to the President’s authority and responsibility over the Executive Branch. Article II, Section 1 vests “the executive power” in the President, while Section 3 states that he “shall take care that the laws be faithfully executed.” In other words, the President is not a passive participant in government. He is the CEO of the Executive Branch, charged with ensuring that agencies operate effectively, ethically, and in alignment with the law.

Beyond that, Article I, Section 9, Clause 7 of the Constitution mandates that “a regular Statement and Account of the Receipts and Expenditures of all public Money shall be published from time to time.” This is not optional. It is a Constitutional requirement that government spending be transparent and accountable to the people. Despite the assertions of some desperate and dishonest Senators of late, the American taxpayer absolutely has a right to see how their tax dollars are being spent. More, the Congress has a Constitutionally mandated responsibility to provide that, and the Executive Branch has a responsibility to ensure the government delivers on the promise. Cutting waste, exposing fraud, and demanding efficiency are not acts of revenge or tyranny. They are responsibilities of the office. When Trump and his administration investigate government agencies, audit budgets, eliminate unnecessary programs, and fire those who have abused their positions, they are fulfilling these constitutional mandates—not violating them.

One of the most controversial aspects of Trump’s return has been his willingness to fire federal workers, including U.S. Attorneys, agency heads, and long-entrenched bureaucrats. But here’s the reality: this is completely normal and in line with historical precedent. When a new administration takes office, especially one from an opposing party, it is routine for the President to clean house. Bill Clinton fired 93 U.S. Attorneys upon taking office in 1993. Barack Obama fired all Bush-appointed U.S. Attorneys when he took office in 2009. Trump’s critics, however, treated his firings as an unprecedented abuse of power. They weren’t. They were standard operating procedure. None of the histrionics and media lunacy about this have any basis in fact or historical precedent. It’s not serious discussion by serious people. It’s more like tantrum-throwing toddlers screaming at the sky.

The President is also well within his rights to fire federal workers who are corrupt, incompetent, or insubordinate. The Civil Service Reform Act of 1978 provides the Executive Branch with the authority to remove employees for inefficiency, misconduct, redundancy, or failure to carry out duties. And contrary to media hysteria, even career civil servants are not beyond dismissal—though government unions and bureaucratic red tape have made the process artificially difficult.

The real scandal isn’t that Trump is firing bureaucrats—it’s that more presidents haven’t done it. It goes beyond “cleaning house.” It’s one of the first steps in making any organization more efficient. The reorganization of government agencies isn’t just normal—it’s necessary. Over the years, the federal government has ballooned into a bloated, inefficient monstrosity, filled with redundant agencies (and with redundant roles within them), wasteful programs, and bureaucrats who enrich themselves at taxpayer expense. The Founders never envisioned an unchecked administrative state, and when government grows beyond its constitutional boundaries, course corrections are required.

Presidents throughout history have engaged in government reform efforts. Thomas Jefferson drastically cut federal spending, eliminated entire government departments, and fired unnecessary employees. Andrew Jackson famously took on the corrupt “spoils system,” sweeping out entrenched bureaucrats and replacing them with officials accountable to the people. Calvin Coolidge slashed government programs and expenditures to prevent bureaucratic overreach. Ronald Reagan targeted wasteful government programs, pushing deregulation and agency restructuring.

One of the most glaring hypocrisies of the current narrative surrounding Trump’s efforts to clean up Washington is that many of the very same actions he’s taking now have historical precedent under Democratic leadership—and were celebrated at the time. Consider Bill Clinton’s presidency. In 1993, Clinton took office and, within months, fired all 93 U.S. Attorneys appointed by George H.W. Bush. He did so without controversy, following the long-standing tradition that new presidents have the right to remove and replace top law enforcement officials to align with their administration’s priorities.

Fast-forward to 2017, and when Trump dismissed Obama-appointed U.S. Attorneys, the press framed it as a scandal, portraying it as an unprecedented purge. The hypocrisy was staggering. What was “routine house-cleaning” under Clinton was suddenly painted as “authoritarian revenge” under Trump.

But Clinton’s overhaul of the Executive Branch didn’t stop there. One of his most impactful and historically significant moves was his massive reduction of the federal workforce. Between 1993 and 1999, Clinton’s administration slashed approximately 380,000 federal jobs, primarily within the military and civilian bureaucracy. This was the largest reduction of government employees in U.S. history.

Why? Because even Clinton recognized that an over-bloated government was unsustainable. Cutting bureaucratic waste and reducing redundant positions helped streamline government efficiency and played a key role in balancing the budget.

The results were undeniable, and are still uncomfortable for some die-hard Republicans to admit. By 1998, Clinton achieved a budget surplus of $69 billion, the first federal surplus in nearly 30 years. By 1999, that number grew to $126 billion, and by 2000, it reached a record $236 billion. Programs and agencies that were inefficient or redundant were either eliminated or downsized, forcing a more streamlined approach to government services. At the time, Clinton was hailed—even by most Republicans—for his pragmatic approach to government efficiency. It was proof that reducing the size of government wasn’t an inherently partisan issue—it was common sense.

So why the double standard? If cutting government waste, firing entrenched bureaucrats, and downsizing the workforce was good policy under Clinton, why is it considered dictatorial under Trump? The answer is obvious: because Clinton’s actions served the interests of the political establishment, while Trump’s threaten them. Clinton’s government cuts helped polish his centrist credentials and proved that a Democrat could be fiscally responsible. Trump’s government cuts are a direct assault on the entrenched bureaucracy, threatening the very power structure that has insulated career bureaucrats and Washington elites from accountability for decades.

It’s also worth noting that Clinton wasn’t accused of “dismantling democracy” or trying to purge the government for personal reasons. Instead, his efforts were framed as pragmatic reform. One major factor that makes the conversation different today than it was then? The radicalization of the Democrat Party. This means the main difference between Clinton and Trump is not the policy, but the reaction to it. This is critical to remember when you watch the media and career bureaucrat/politician outcry. Don’t lose sight of it.

Trump is taking on the Administrative State directly—exposing corruption, waste, and inefficiency at every level. He’s cutting spending not just for fiscal reasons, but for accountability reasons. He’s ensuring that taxpayer dollars aren’t feeding a bloated and corrupt system designed to benefit career bureaucrats at the expense of the public. He’s cleaning house at an even greater scale, focusing on not just workforce reduction but also systemic reform—restructuring agencies, eliminating redundancy, and making the government work for the people, not the other way around. Trump’s critics are panicking not because he’s doing something unprecedented but because he’s doing something that works—and exposing a system that has benefited the political class for generations.

The lesson from history is clear: Cutting government waste is good for America. Holding bureaucrats accountable is good for America. Reducing inefficiency is good for America. The only people who don’t want this to happen are the ones who stand to lose their grip on power.

At this point, it may be valuable to go back in time a bit and see what the Founders themselves had to say about government overreach. The very men who designed our system of government warned us about what happens when bureaucrats and officials become unaccountable to the people.

Thomas Jefferson: “The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield, and government to gain ground.”

James Madison: “The accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive, and judiciary, in the same hands, may justly be pronounced the very definition of tyranny.”

George Washington: “The basis of our political systems is the right of the people to make and to alter their constitutions of government.”

When bureaucrats believe they are above the law, when unelected agencies impose regulations without congressional approval, when political operatives weaponize government institutions to serve their own ends, and when they presume to do it all in the shadows, without any accountability to the public —that is the real threat to democracy, and to the Republic.

Trump is not a dictator for doing what the Constitution and history demand. He is fulfilling a responsibility that too many presidents have ignored. At the core of all of this is a simple principle: the government serves the people, not the other way around. The moment public servants begin to see themselves as rulers instead of stewards, they must be reminded who is in charge.

The Founders built safeguards into the Constitution to prevent the rise of an entrenched political class that operates beyond accountability. When Trump fires corrupt bureaucrats, demands audits, and restructures failing agencies, he is not dismantling government—he is restoring it. The bureaucratic class and their media allies fear losing power, not democracy. That’s why they howl and rant and throw their tantrums about “authoritarianism” while defending institutions that operate without transparency or accountability.

The government derives its authority from the consent of the governed. It is not a self-sustaining, unaccountable entity. When Trump acts to remind Washington of this fact, when he acts to achieve his “reckoning,” he is not defying the Constitution. He is honoring it.

The louder they scream, the more you should pay attention to why they are screaming. Trump’s actions threaten their power, not “democracy.” His efforts threaten their racket, not the Constitution. Every accusation they throw at him is a confession of their own abuses. And they know it. So when you watch the media wring their hands over a “government purge” or a “dangerous restructuring,” remember: they didn’t care when Clinton did it. They didn’t care when Obama did it. They didn’t care when Biden did it. They only care now because they fear losing control.

Like I said - don’t lose sight of this! Don’t let them rewrite history. The political class depends on your apathy, your distraction, and your willingness to forget. But this time, they don’t get to sweep it under the rug. This time, they don’t get to gaslight the American people into believing that restoring accountability is tyranny. This is not revenge. This is a reckoning. And it’s long overdue.

So speak up. Stay engaged. Call out the lies. Demand accountability. Because if the American people make their voices heard—if they refuse to be silenced by media spin, bureaucratic panic, and the howls of a corrupt establishment—then Washington will finally be forced to remember who it works for.

Us.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2025, 03:35:31 PM by Crafty_Dog »


Crafty_Dog

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Michael Brewer: China's next move
« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2025, 02:54:05 PM »


This is the most intensive intelligence review of China's responses to the Trump Tariffs I think anybody has published anywhere.  It took me over 200 pages of analysis and refinement to get to this final report, and even though I tried to keep it digestible, it's pretty info-dense.  Would love some feedback here!



https://danconiajournal.substack.com/p/special-report-chinas-next-move


Crafty_Dog

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Re: Michael Brewer:
« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2025, 09:54:46 AM »
This is a rough draft of something Mike is working on.   Comments and suggestions encouraged:

=============

Executive Summary

This white paper explores the strategic confrontation between the United States and the People's
Republic of China through the lens of China’s doctrine of Unrestricted Warfare. It maps China's use of
asymmetric strategies across five key domains—cyber, economic, intellectual property, media, and
lawfare—and analyzes the United States’ historic failure to respond adequately. It highlights the existing
U.S. legal and strategic frameworks that can be mobilized to counter Chinese actions and contrasts past
inaction with the Trump administration’s doctrinal shift toward overt confrontation. Finally, it evaluates
the observable effects of this shift, both within China and globally, and projects future trajectories based
on current indicators.

A. Chinese Strategic Doctrine: War Without War

BLUF: China does not view warfare as confined to battlefields, nor as requiring declarations of war. The
doctrine of "Unrestricted Warfare" defines conflict as ever-present, waged in every domain—economic,
legal, informational, and technological—with the goal of degrading an adversary's power incrementally
and asymmetrically.

Source Characterizations and Confidence Statement: This doctrine is drawn directly from primary
source PLA literature (Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, 1999) and is substantiated by consistent patterns
of behavior by the Chinese state across multiple sectors. Confidence in this doctrinal alignment is high,
based on alignment between strategic writings and observable national conduct.

Narrative Support: Unlike Western constructs that separate peace and war, China conceives of conflict
as continuous. Unrestricted Warfare asserts that every tool of society—law, finance, media,
infrastructure—can be weaponized. This model not only informs China's strategic decision-making but
explains its hybrid posture: denying open conflict while advancing hostile objectives. For policymakers
and analysts, recognizing this framing is essential to shifting from reactive diplomacy to strategic
deterrence.

Key doctrinal beliefs include:

• The battlefield is everywhere
• Every actor and every domain is a potential weapon
• Victory is achieved not through decisive battle, but through the incremental erosion of an
adversary’s will, unity, and advantage

B. Five Pillars of Unrestricted Warfare: Domains and Tactics

BLUF: While China views all subjects and indeed all things as potential weapons in a completely
unrestricted battlefield, there are five key domains in which China’s actions against the United States
allow the CCP conduct warfare below the threshold of kinetic conflict. These include cyber operations,
economic manipulation, intellectual property theft, information control, and legal exploitation. Each
pillar represents a venue of asymmetric advantage where China can advance objectives without
provoking military retaliation.

Source Characterizations and Confidence Statement: These categories are derived from open-source
intelligence assessments, U.S. indictments, trade actions, academic analyses, and defense doctrine
reviews. Confidence is high due to broad consensus across sectors and repeated confirmation in Chinese
and Western documentation.

Narrative Support: China does not fight with tanks and missiles—at least not first. Instead, it erodes
adversary strength through persistent, deniable, and often legal channels. Each of the following pillars is
a campaign in itself. They are not isolated, but synergistic:

1. Cyber Warfare
• Tactics: Network intrusions, cyber espionage, sabotage of infrastructure, intellectual property
theft, long-term access operations
• Objectives: Undermine confidence in U.S. systems, acquire intelligence, steal technology,
disrupt defenses

2. Economic Warfare
• Tactics: Strategic investment, currency manipulation, predatory trade practices, global supply
chain dominance
• Objectives: Undermine U.S. economic independence, capture strategic industries, gain
geopolitical leverage through dependency

3. Intellectual Property Theft
• Tactics: Cyber theft, forced tech transfers, infiltration of academia and R&D sectors, dual-use
scientific collaboration
• Objectives: Accelerate indigenous innovation, bypass R&D costs, militarize commercial
technologies

4. Media and Information Warfare
• Tactics: State media expansion, content manipulation, disinformation, cultural censorship, social
media influence
• Objectives: Shape global and domestic narratives, sow discord within U.S. society, legitimize CCP
authoritarianism

5. Lawfare (Legal Warfare)
• Tactics: Use of international law and courts to legitimize illegal claims, exploit legal norms to
constrain adversaries, influence international bodies
• Objectives: Create legal justification for expansionism, delegitimize U.S. legal authority, tie U.S.
responses in legal red tape

Together, these represent a broad-spectrum campaign of non-military operations to achieve strategic
parity and eventual dominance without firing a shot.

C. The Strategic Paralysis of the Past: Understanding the Status Quo

BLUF: For over two decades, the United States recognized China's hostile economic and strategic
posture but failed to respond decisively. This was not due to ignorance, but to a perceived lack of viable
alternatives and a prioritization of economic stability.

Source Characterizations and Confidence Statement: This conclusion is based on public statements by
senior officials, policy reviews, trade reports, and voting patterns in Congress. Confidence is high that
successive administrations chose a path of deferment rather than confrontation.

Narrative Support: Beginning in the late 1990s and accelerating after China's WTO accession, the U.S.
adopted a theory of liberal engagement: that trade would lead to democratization. Even as evidence
mounted that China was exploiting trade, stealing IP, and militarizing its economy, U.S. responses
remained largely rhetorical. Real countermeasures were rare, fragmented, and often reversed under
political pressure.

This was not accidental. It was a rational but ultimately flawed calculation:

Why the U.S. Did Not Act Decisively:

1. Mutual Economic Dependency: Any punitive measure risked boomeranging into domestic
inflation, job losses, and political backlash.
2. Political Gridlock: Congressional and interagency consensus was elusive. Lobbying by
multinationals muted reform.
3. Ideological Naivety: A bipartisan belief that market access would lead to political reform in
China proved misguided.
4. Lack of Doctrine: No integrated plan for responding to gray-zone threats existed.
5. Risk Aversion: No administration wanted to risk full-scale confrontation with the world’s
second-largest economy.

The result was not peace (since to the CCP, their waging of unrestricted warfare is continuous and
perpetual), but strategic stagnation for the U.S. and the asymmetrical advancement of CCP interests.
While the U.S. hesitated, China advanced.

D. Existing Legal and Strategic Frameworks for Defense and Counter-Offense

BLUF: The U.S. possesses robust legal authorities and institutional frameworks to counter every element
of China’s Unrestricted Warfare. These tools exist across economic, cyber, legal, and security domains
but have historically been underutilized or applied in isolation.

Source Characterizations and Confidence Statement: These mechanisms are codified in statute,
defense authorization bills, executive orders, and administrative regulations. Confidence is very high in
their legal availability and potential utility.

Narrative Support: The U.S. is not powerless against China’s asymmetric campaigns. In fact, the legal
arsenal available is extensive and scalable. What has been missing is strategic coordination and political
will. If harmonized into a national doctrine, these tools can decisively counter Chinese tactics:

1. Cyber Defense and Response
• Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (CFAA) and International Emergency Economic Powers Act
(IEEPA): Enable prosecution and asset seizure for cyber actors.
• Executive Orders 13694 and 13757: Authorize sanctions on foreign cyber-enabled threats.

2. Economic Defense
• Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974: Enables tariffs in response to unfair trade practices.
• Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962: Authorizes trade restrictions for national
security.
• Export Control Reform Act (ECRA) of 2018: Restricts technology exports.

3. Intellectual Property Protection
• Economic Espionage Act of 1996 and Defend Trade Secrets Act of 2016: Provide criminal and
civil tools to address IP theft.

4. Media and Propaganda Countermeasures
• Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA): Requires transparency from foreign-influenced actors.
• Designation Authorities: Label foreign media outlets as state-directed entities.

5. Lawfare and International Legal Response
• NDAA Authorities: Fund and mandate counter-influence and counter-lawfare programs.
• INDOPACOM Legal Initiatives: Establish military doctrines to neutralize legal warfare.
• International Tribunals: WTO and Permanent Court of Arbitration rulings reinforce rule-of-law
norms.

Taken together, these form the defensive perimeter and counteroffensive capacity needed to blunt
China’s sub-threshold warfare. The tools exist. The test is in their unified application.

E. The Trump Administration: Divergence from the Status Quo

BLUF: The Trump administration is the first in post-Cold War history to depart fully from the status quo
of economic engagement and cautious rhetoric. Instead, it framed China as a full-spectrum adversary
and employed a range of economic, legal, cyber, and diplomatic tools to proactively confront the
Chinese Communist Party.

Source Characterizations and Confidence Statement: This analysis draws from executive orders, official
Trump administration statements, congressional records, trade and cybersecurity actions, and
international economic data from 2017 to 2025. Confidence in the characterization of Trump’s
divergence from the status quo is high, based on direct policy evidence and the coherence of his
administration’s cross-sectoral strategy.

Narrative Support: Unlike his predecessors, Trump treated Chinese actions as a form of war-by-othermeans. This perception guided a holistic and often aggressive strategy that fused sanctions, trade tariffs,
intelligence declassification, legal prosecutions, and international coalition-building to disrupt China's
influence and impose costs on CCP behavior. The intent was not to stabilize relations, but to rebalance
them with a credible threat of consequence. The result was a highly visible disruption of Chinese
activities in multiple domains and a measurable reaction from Beijing in policy, posture, and tone.
By Domain:

Cyber:

• Blocked Chinese tech apps and imposed sanctions on PLA-affiliated hacking groups
• Promoted U.S. technology sovereignty through federal procurement bans and private-sector
guidance
Economic:
• Applied tariffs reaching 145% under Section 301
• Revoked China’s preferential WTO status and imposed broader reciprocal trade constraints
Intellectual Property:
• Prosecuted Huawei and ZTE; cracked down on university and research institution collaborations
linked to the PLA
• Denied visas to researchers affiliated with China's military-civil fusion programs
Media/Information Warfare:
• Labeled CGTN and Xinhua as foreign missions
• Funded public diplomacy and intelligence-based counter-narratives
Lawfare:
• Supported legal challenges to Chinese territorial claims
• Expanded NDAA mandates for defense against lawfare and narrative warfare
F. Reflections and Indicators of Strategic Effectiveness

BLUF: There are measurable and observable signs that the Trump administration's strategy has
disrupted CCP operations, triggered economic instability within China, catalyzed social unrest, and
exposed China's vulnerabilities in areas it previously controlled.

Source Characterizations and Confidence Statement: Observations draw from open-source economic
data, protest activity reports, social media trends, CCP internal policy shifts, and documented changes in
Chinese diplomatic tone. Analytic confidence in the correlation between U.S. pressure and Chinese
responses is moderate-to-high depending on the domain, with the clearest linkages seen in economic
and social disruptions.

Narrative Support: The signs of effectiveness are clearest where CCP control is most critical: economic
output, internal social cohesion, and information dominance. China's export sectors have contracted
sharply. Protests have erupted over unpaid wages, and Xi Jinping has intensified purges of military and
political officials. These are not routine policy actions—they are reactive indicators of stress and
fracture. While it is nearly impossible to glean direct evidence of Xi’s motives, seeing increases in this
sort of purge may indicate attempts by the control-focused Xi to assert his power and authority and rid
himself of potential dissenters and opponents. Youth movements like "Lying Flat" and “Let It Rot” reflect
growing despair in the Party's ability to secure future prosperity. International institutions once viewed
as neutral have been exposed as China-influenced, provoking a backlash that weakens Beijing's global
credibility.

Observed Effects:

Economic:

• Chinese exports to the U.S. dropped over 20% in April 2025
• PMI readings fell below 50, indicating manufacturing contraction
• 16+ million jobs at risk across export-driven sectors

Social/Political:

• Mass factory protests in multiple provinces
• Direct public challenges to Xi's leadership (e.g., protest banners, online dissent)
• Escalation of anti-corruption purges as an internal loyalty-control mechanism
Institutional Backlash:
• WHO credibility weakened post-COVID due to its pro-China posture
• U.S. and allies scrutinizing UN voting and funding dynamics

Media/Messaging Resistance:

• TikTok bans across federal systems
• Crackdowns on Confucius Institutes
• CIA influence operations targeting CCP narratives
Predictive Analysis: If these pressures are sustained and complemented by allied strategies, we may
witness: (1) a fracturing of elite unity within the CCP, (2) further decoupling of Western markets from
Chinese suppliers, and (3) intensified Chinese disinformation and domestic repression to compensate.

The net effect is a vulnerable and reactive CCP facing internal and external constraint for the first time in
decades.

Conclusion: Strategic Trajectory and Predictive Outlook

China’s application of Unrestricted Warfare has succeeded for over two decades by exploiting American
complacency, institutional division, and economic interdependence. The Trump administration’s
strategic shift did not merely challenge these tactics—it redefined the battlefield, applying overt
pressure in all five of these domains of Chinese sub-threshold warfare.

The evidence suggests that such pressure is both effective and necessary. China is showing visible signs
of strain—economic disruption, public unrest, reputational damage, and elite instability. If this approach
is carried forward, institutionalized into bipartisan doctrine, and bolstered by allied coordination, it
could mark the turning point in China’s long march toward regional and global dominance.

Prediction: If U.S. strategy regresses to rhetorical deterrence or status quo accommodation, China will
recover momentum and recalibrate. If, however, the pressure continues—with legal, informational, and
economic constraints converging—then Xi Jinping's China will be forced either to moderate its ambitions
(this may take place behind closed doors to save face) or risk destabilization from within.


Crafty_Dog

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Re: Michael Brewer:
« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2025, 06:51:01 AM »

Michael Brewer
May 15 at 5:59 PM  ·
I'm confused. 

Now that the President has brought record strategic cooperation deals and unprecedented investment from Middle East countries, moving them all closer to a comprehensive peace with Israel AND a nuclear-free Iran, Democrats are *now* worried about terrorists?

Democrats don't want the President talking to countries that support terrorists?

Like two days ago, they were against deporting terrorists from our own country, they fawned over the guy who sent palletized cargo planes full of cash to the world's leading sponsor of terrorism and they wanted to elect the guy who handed off an entire country worth of military hardware to the terrorist militia we spent 20 years fighting before turning around in the middle of a speech and trying to shake hands with a curtain.

I can't keep up anymore.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2025, 07:28:57 AM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Michael Brewer:
« Reply #13 on: May 23, 2025, 06:24:16 AM »
https://danconiajournal.substack.com/p/the-lighthouse?fbclid=IwY2xjawKdVCFleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBicmlkETFqcDFWWlR5SmY0ZXpKbkYxAR68akOdbpeOmF-HmWG7BASjQ9URZ5qgd6yGdDVnvlHPsQU1zbbzSMAVUf8Aaw_aem_K0hfN5STRqfpdkgFNFThuA

The Lighthouse
How we cut through the fog of the Misinformation Age
Francisco D'Anconia
May 21, 2025

Come pull up a chair and let’s talk a while about something important. It’s something that’s been on my mind a lot lately, especially as we tackle some of the more complex and complicated issues facing the country today. I’m sure you’ve noticed it, too.

It’s getting harder to think. Or at least, to think clearly.

Not because we’ve lost the ability, but because clarity has become a real danger to a lot of different competing agendas. It’s a battle. Every day, we’re flooded with contradictory headlines, finely tuned propaganda, and half-truths positively dripping with sincerity. You start to wonder not just what’s true, but if there’s anybody out there who even wants you to know the truth anymore. The more noise you absorb, the more your instincts feel scrambled. Common sense starts to look like those old TVs we had when we were kids, fuzz and bars and double images because the signal is just enough out of phase to see, but not clearly. So how do you cut through it? How do you realign the antenna? What do you do when you can't trust the signal?

This isn’t rhetorical. These are questions I wrestle with every day, just like you probably do. I mean, at its core, it’s the reason this Journal exists. It’s my virtual attempt to find high-quality minds, sit across from you for a few minutes, and have a real conversation about how we cut through the fog. Not with slogans. Not with spin. But with method. With rigor. With thinking. Sure, that will come with emotion – we’re human and that’s a part of how we all function. But the emotion should be a result, an effect. If we feel betrayal, it should come after we see that we’ve been betrayed. If we feel angry, it should come after we see clearly that something is wrong. I never want to join the ranks of those who helplessly and ineffectually scream at the sky in a vain attempt to make the world accommodate my feelings, and I don’t want to encourage such nonsense in anyone else. No, ours is an effort to discern truth from fiction, results from narratives, real outcomes from spin and shine.

With that in mind, I’d like to spend a few minutes in honest reflection with you.

You’ve undoubtedly noticed that these entries come in fits and starts at times. I don’t adhere to a schedule or put things out in this Journal just to post content. I write when I feel I have something to say. Usually, that follows a lot of research and analysis, as well as lots of conversations with the smartest people I know. What you read is the result of a process that combines those things with a career’s worth of training in analysis and analytic tradecraft. While I’ll freely state my opinions on all kinds of things, I don’t “guess” here when it comes to assessments. I don’t just parrot the Left or Right’s spin because it suits me, and I sure as hell don’t take the word of elected officials, career bureaucrats, or legacy media outlets. I analyze. I assess. I give you my best whack at a topic and I try to tell you how I got there.

When we looked at the Trump tariffs on China, you didn’t see me speculate about whether it was a good or bad idea. I built an Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) model and tracked China’s reactions in real time, not through blogs and social media posts, but through primary sources, trade metrics, financial signals, and on-the-ground reporting from sources I can verify. When protests erupted in five Chinese provinces, I didn’t need a pundit to explain what it meant. I’d already mapped out that very contingency and knew what it told us about Xi’s shifting strategy. This kind of thing is referred to in intelligence work as a “reflection.”

When President Trump’s Middle East tour unfolded, same thing. I didn’t look to the op-ed class to tell me whether Trump’s moves were “reckless” or “historic.” I catalogued and graphed reactions, statements, funding flows, ceasefires, and realignments. I applied methodology, not partisanship. I told you what to watch, both to determine whether my assessment held up, or to see if it was falling apart. Both matter – you have to know what signs point to being right, but you also have to be aware of the signs that tell you “I blew it.” And what reflections do we see?

We see Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar maintaining their typical “Arab Solidarity” by advocating for the Palestinian people which simultaneously distancing themselves from Hamas. That’s a big deal. We see them investing heavily with U.S. partners on tech and AI, as well as “buying American” at scale in the transportation sector. We see China reacting all over the place, from overt concessions to back-room deals to save face to diplomatic admissions that Trump’s strategy is working. I’ll get into these in more depth in just a minute, but go back and look at the original assessments and you’ll see these indicators were called out specifically.

I showed you how the methodology worked with Crossfire Hurricane and the Hunter Biden laptop scandal. I didn’t accept Barr’s word. I didn’t look to Durham. I didn’t follow what Mueller omitted. I read and broke down the 7 binders of newly released information as well as the raw information we already had available. I went source by source. I tried to see (and show you) how those sources connected and where the threads crossed. It’s harder this way, but it’s the only way to escape the narrative trap. What’s more, if you don’t do it that way, then at some level you’re just picking sides and believing whichever partisan hack you identify with most.

And that’s the point: We are being manipulated. Constantly. Left, right, and center. We know that. We talk about it constantly. And we know the only protection we have is disciplined thinking.

You’ve seen me say it before. We’re always just one new fact away from realizing we were wrong about everything. That’s the unwritten creed of every serious analyst. It’s why we revisit our conclusions. It’s why, even now, we should continue to test the models we’ve built. We’re not afraid to change our minds — but only if the evidence demands it. Every “change” should be an improvement, an evolution based on better information. That’s why we look for reflections. It’s why we go back and test those indicators to see if we’re on the right track or if we blew it and didn’t consider something important along the way. It’s our mechanism for accountability and for self-awareness.

So, let’s do a quick review of what I’ve put out for your consumption and how those assessments hold up.

In my report on China’s Next Move, I projected that China would offer overt trade concessions in response to internal protests and market pressures, and that Xi would also attempt to quietly negotiate behind the scenes to save face on bigger issues.

Result? Assessment Confirmed. Quiet negotiations are underway. Tariff offsets are being explored even as a public deal favoring the U.S. is announced. Xi’s level of control depends on his ability to keep internal and external influences in balance, and every upset of that balance benefits the U.S. The hypothesis still stands.

In my report on President Trump’s Middle East Tour, I forecast that the President’s agenda was engineered to take advantage of transactional opportunities to shift Middle East partners toward America, and to realign regional power to undermine the CCP’s agenda.

Result? Assessment Confirmed. Record levels of foreign investment in the U.S. coming in. Saudi, UAE, and Qatar maintain support for Palestinians, but have distanced themselves from Hamas in particular. China in particular has squealed in pain at the result of Trump’s deals. The Chinese Foreign Ministry condemned U.S. deals with the Gulf states as “unilateral bullying” and “a targeted campaign to suppress China’s AI industry.” Chinese analysts have begun warning of “U.S. encirclement in the digital domain,” especially as Middle Eastern tech infrastructure begins to shift from Chinese-managed systems to U.S.-regulated architecture. And finally, Beijing is reportedly accelerating its Military-Civil Fusion strategy and pursuing alternative regional footholds in Africa and Central Asia.

So yes — we should revisit. We should refine. We should keep checking. That’s the difference between propaganda and principled analysis. One seeks converts. The other seeks truth.

For many of you, this is why you’ve stayed with me. It’s why you continue to invest the time and effort in wrestling with all of this, and it’s why you’re willing to put in the work to pick apart the ideas I put in front of you. You know we aren’t just screaming into the sky. We’re cutting away the narratives and rhetoric that have been so carefully designed to preserve agendas, and we’re getting to the truth.

I’m also seeing a lot of new readers. This Journal is being shared in places it hasn’t been shared before, and there are new eyes and new minds dipping their attention in for a trial run. To those people: You know something’s wrong. You know the mainstream feels broken. Let this be your invitation to start thinking clearly again — not by trusting me, but by reading and thinking for yourself and seeing where those thoughts lead you. You should be testing my assertions and assessments, too. I certainly do. If you do, I’ll wager that even when we disagree, you’ll be able to follow the reasoning to my conclusions instead of the rhetoric.

And of course, there are my reflexive critics. Those who see me align with President Trump and immediately decide to hate whatever comes next. To those folks, understand I don’t see you as an enemy. But your refusal to test your assumptions makes you your own worst enemy. You call it “resistance.” I call it willful blindness. If you’re a critic, I offer you a challenge - prove me wrong. The source material is public. My methods are transparent. Apply the same rigor to the same information and let’s see what happens when you think for yourself.

The issues we grapple with here are complex. They’re complicated. They’re made much tougher to understand by the incredible armies of competing interests who profit by making sure these issues are impenetrable to the common person. They earn viewers and advertising dollars by shared outrage, engagement by feeding passions rather than encouraging comprehension. It’s an ecosystem that’s evolved to destroy progress whether it was ever intended to or not. Here, my goal is to change things for the better. To do that, we have to start with truth. We have to act based on what is objectively true, and that means we have to spend some time cultivating the skills, the discipline, and the intellectual rigor to cut through the bullshit.

Thanks for coming with me.

Crafty_Dog

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Michael Brewer on FB
« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2025, 03:10:46 PM »


Michael Brewer

 
I'd love to know how many of my friends here have ever gone out into a wilderness (any type - desert, forest, tropical, alpine - you name it) and simply stayed for a few days without gear. 

I made it a habit in my youth to go out for long weekends with just a knife, with a small survival tin, or with whatever I happened to have on me when one of my buddies said "Let's go to the woods."  From the time I was around 13, I had a fondness for what everyone now calls "bushcrafting" or survival.  Back then, it was just "going to the woods."  We'd find a place to park, walk in until we got tired or saw a great spot to stop, and we'd stop.  Find some water, make a fire, and start getting comfortable.  That's really what it was all about - getting comfortable.  That has deeply and critically shaped my approach to being afield, to survival, and to disasters. 

Think about what it means to "get comfortable."  It means if you're cold, get warm.  If you're too hot, cool off.  If the ground hurts, get up off it.  If you're being swarmed by insects, figure out how to make them leave you alone. Hungry?  Find some food.  Thirsty?  Find some water. That basic barometer of "get comfortable" really can guide a whole lot of survival choices pretty well.  The fundamental human algorithm of "seek pleasure and avoid pain" is deeply flawed in a lot of modern circumstances, but in the back country, it ain't a bad place to start.

When you spend time working that way, you see the wilderness differently.  There are tools of convenience everywhere.  Your pack gets pretty light because you end up carrying more knowledge and skills than gear.  Your enjoyment goes way up, too.  When you know 15 reliable ways to make a fire, 10 different ways to procure and purify water, 20 different ways to make a hasty shelter and a warm place to sleep, 30 different medicinal and nutritious plants in your area, and how to tell what direction you're moving in, your mind gets to relax a lot more.  Your nerves settle and you get to take things in like a local rather than a sightseer or visitor.

Who here feels ready, able, and confident that they could spend a week in the back country with just a handful of small items?  What kinds of environments do you feel most capable in?  Which ones do you feel least capable in?