Author Topic: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan  (Read 574539 times)

Crafty_Dog

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Reports of anti-Taliban movement
« Reply #1900 on: September 29, 2021, 01:26:06 PM »
second

GUIDANCE
What to Watch For Amid Reports of an Anti-Taliban Movement in Afghanistan
7 MIN READAug 18, 2021 | 19:16 GMT





Armed men supporting Afghan security forces against the Taliban stand along a road in Panjshir on Aug. 18, 2021.
Armed men supporting Afghan security forces in the fight against the Taliban stand along a road in Panjshir on Aug. 18, 2021.

(AHMAD SAHEL ARMAN/AFP via Getty Images)

Several unconfirmed reports indicate former Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh and Ahmad Massoud, the son of the renowned Afghan resistance hero Ahmad Shah Massoud, are rallying anti-Taliban forces in the former Northern Alliance stronghold of the Panjshir Valley — bringing into question the Taliban’s ability to govern the entire country mere days after seizing Kabul. Saleh declared himself as the “caretaker president” of the legitimate government of Afghanistan on Aug. 15 after former President Ashraf Ghani fled the country in the wake of the Taliban’s capture of Kabul. The following day, photos emerged of Saleh meeting with Massoud in the Panjshir Valley, which has repeatedly proven difficult terrain to conquer and remains outside Taliban control. Some reports suggest Afghanistan’s former defense minister, Bismillah Khan Mohammadi, is also joining Saleh and Massoud, in addition to several other former Northern Alliance fighters and elements of the Afghan security forces. Saleh had close relations with Massoud’s father Ahmad Shah Massoud, who fought from the Panjshir Valley against the Soviet occupation from 1979-89, earning him the name “The Lion of the Panjshir. ” The elder Massoud also served in the Afghan government as defense minister beginning in 1992, before going on to co-lead Northern Alliance forces against Taliban rule. He was assassinated by al Qaeda days before the 9/11 attacks in 2001, in part to shore up support from the Taliban for the expected U.S. reprisal.

Tajiks from the Afghan security forces have allegedly arrived in the Panjshir Valley as well with heavy equipment and vehicles, bolstering potential resistance forces.
The Massoud family name widely resonates in Afghanistan, with the Sept. 9 anniversary of Ahmad Shah Massoud’s death commemorated annually.
While they remain unconfirmed, the reports of a budding anti-Taliban movement would fit a logical pattern in Afghanistan. Some members of the Afghan government and security forces have fled the country, and others have entered into negotiations with the Taliban. However, we would still expect to see others continue to resist Taliban rule through political and military means. The Taliban anticipated resistance, particularly from ethnic Tajiks (Tajik areas of Afghanistan remained largely outside of Taliban control in the 1990s). Taliban forces moved across northern areas of the country before swinging south to surround Kabul in order to disrupt the potential for organized opposition or the reconstitution of a Northern Alliance force. The Taliban reportedly left Jamaat Ansarullah, the so-called Tajik Taliban, in charge of the border with Tajikistan in an effort to split ethnic support for anti-Taliban operations (a tactic seen in many countries, most notably Myanmar, where the military has long pitted ethnic militia against their anti-government compatriots). This also potentially limits any Northern Alliance forces from resupply and recuperation in neighboring Tajikistan.


Taliban forces will continue to focus on the Panjshir Valley, even as they negotiate the final transition in Kabul. There are some reports that the younger Massoud may already be in discussions with the Taliban, which would counter reports of the formation of a new anti-Taliban militia. Massoud, in a recent interview with the Atlantic Council, had raised the potential for some accommodation with the Taliban, and perhaps a federalist structure for rule in Afghanistan. It is possible such ideas are part of the ongoing negotiations in Kabul and Oman regarding the next government of Afghanistan. While this would require some concessions from the Taliban, it would also reduce the likelihood of a continuing civil war, at least in the near term.

What to Watch For
As we monitor the situation, we have several outstanding questions we are addressing to determine the significance of opposition to the Taliban and the likelihood of expanded national conflict:

Is the reported resistance in the Panjshir Valley defensive or offensive?

If the reports of a new resistance movement are true, it poses a significant challenge to the Taliban’s control and its search for international legitimacy. The Panjshir Valley provides a strong redoubt for a resistance movement, and while the Taliban claims to control all border crossings and most of the territory between the valley and the border, it is difficult to quell all movement of personnel and goods along the frontier.
The resistance activity could also be more of a defensive operation, with the Panjshir Valley serving as a gathering place for those fleeing the Taliban or resisting Taliban control. There are reports, for example, of ethnic Hazara Shias moving into the valley to shelter from the Taliban. This would present a persistent problem for the Taliban, but not necessarily an unmanageable one, at least in the near term. While the Panjshir Valley is difficult terrain to conquer, the same strength of limited accessibility can be a liability, enabling the Taliban to largely bottle up the resistance within a single geographic area.
If this is about building a base for future operations against the Taliban, then we are likely to first see anti-Taliban forces move to the north to open up the border with Tajikistan and establish lines of communication outside Afghanistan to ensure resupply and perhaps even personnel and training. It is possible that the Panjshir Valley first provides a defensive position before later becoming a base of operations for the counter-push against the Taliban, at least in the north. From the Taliban’s perspective, it is vital to deny the opposition, either defensively or offensively, the freedom to use the strategic and symbolic Panjshir Valley.
How coherent is this nascent resistance movement?

One of the main challenges of the Afghan government and security forces has been the inability to overcome ethnic, tribal and political differences. The old Northern Alliance was able to coalesce around opposition to a single enemy and the new resistance may be able to do the same against the Taliban. However, it is not certain that all opposition leaders are equally committed to active resistance. Disagreements about an end goal would provide a space for the Taliban to exploit.
At the same time, the Taliban, in losing their single enemy (the United States and other foreign forces) may face their own challenges of internal cohesion, providing opportunities for anti-Taliban forces to exploit. This could be further exacerbated if central Taliban leadership seeks to enforce their promise of not allowing Afghanistan to be used as a base to attack neighboring countries. This could, in turn, pit the Afghan Taliban against their allies in the south — namely, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — shifting their focus away from the northern areas.
What level of external support is there for a militant resistance movement or an Afghan government in exile?

While there is general international criticism of Taliban rule, there is also apparent exhaustion in fighting in the Afghan conflict. Overt foreign support for a resistance movement inside Afghanistan could keep foreign powers on a terrorist attack list, something that would be weighed against the perceived benefits of supporting another Afghan insurgency. Russia and China are both seeking stability in Afghanistan, and the United States is trying to refocus its attention to the Indo-Pacific. Other regional powers like India would also need to weigh the costs and benefits of active support, as would bordering states that would most likely see spillover.
Is active foreign support necessary in the early phases of resistance?

If the new counter-Taliban movement has elements of the Afghan security forces, it also likely has access to sufficient arms and ammunition, at least in the near term. In addition, Afghanistan is notorious for being a haven for arms smuggling, providing another avenue for necessary supplies to move.
The international community may block the Taliban from accessing Afghan monies abroad, but it is not assured that a government in exile or a resistance movement would be allowed access to those funds. Saleh’s recent move to declare himself as the leader of Afghanistan’s legitimate government may be an attempt to ensure access to those accounts.

Crafty_Dog

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ya

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Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« Reply #1903 on: October 03, 2021, 12:04:06 PM »
probably come to take back, the military goodies we left behind.

G M

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Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« Reply #1904 on: October 03, 2021, 06:01:39 PM »
probably come to take back, the military goodies we left behind.

No doubt about that.

DougMacG

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Joe Biden released the suicide bomber that killed Americans and Afghans
« Reply #1905 on: October 06, 2021, 01:46:49 PM »
To be fair, the people Biden virtually handed the keys to [Taliban] released Abdul Rehman Al-Loghri, who quickly and massively killed Americans and Afghans, which we avenged by killing more innocent people.

This is something that could not have been anticipated and prevented?  Sorry but I don't think releasing terrorists while Americans are still at the airport was in Biden's predecessor's plan, which he was under no obligation to follow anyway.

Did we NOT have room at Guantanamo for more terrorists?  No plane to fly them?  We left hundreds of aircrafts behind including multiple C-130 Transport planes.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_C-130_Hercules  Terrorists and terror, as predictable as a hammer and a nai8l.  What is the matter with these people [Biden administration]?  They thought the released would take up farming?

THIS IS CNN!  And wow do they rip him.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/06/politics/kabul-airport-attacker-prison/index.html

ISIS-K suicide bomber who carried out deadly Kabul airport attack had been released from prison days earlier

By Oren Liebermann and Natasha Bertrand, CNN

Updated 11:38 AM ET, Wed October 6, 2021

(CNN)The ISIS-K suicide bomber who carried out a terrorist attack at Kabul international airport in late August, killing 13 US service members and dozens of Afghans, had been released from a prison near Kabul just days earlier when the Taliban took control of the area, according to three US officials.

Two US officials, as well as Rep. Ken Calvert, a California Republican who said he had been briefed by national security officials, said the suicide bomber was released from the Parwan prison at Bagram air base. The US controlled the base until it abandoned Bagram in early July. It had turned over the prison to Afghan authorities in 2013.

The revelation underscores the chaos around the final days of the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the struggle of the US to control a rapidly deteriorating situation around the airport as it relied on the Taliban to secure the perimeter of the airport.

The Parwan prison at Bagram, along with the Pul-e-Charkhi prison near Kabul, housed several hundred members of ISIS-K, as well as thousands of other prisoners when the Taliban took control of both facilities hours before taking over the capital with barely a shot fired in mid-August, a regional counter-terrorism source told CNN at the time. The Taliban emptied out both prisons, releasing their own members who had been imprisoned but also members of ISIS-K, which is the terror group's affiliate in Afghanistan.

Eleven days later, on August 26, it was one of those prisoners who carried out the suicide bombing at Abbey Gate, killing the 13 US service members, including 11 Marines, one soldier and one sailor. They would be the last US troops killed in Afghanistan as part of America's longest war.

As of Tuesday, one Marine injured in the attack remains in a serious but stable condition at Walter Reed Military Medical Center near Washington, the Marine Corps said in a statement. Another Marine is receiving care at a specialty facility, while 16 others are receiving outpatient treatment.

Two US officials confirmed attacker's identity
ISIS-K took credit for the attack and named the suicide bomber as Abdul Rehman Al-Loghri. Two US officials confirmed the identity of the attacker. FirstPost, an English-language news site based in India, was first to report that he had been released from the Bagram prison.

The rapid transition from released prisoner to suicide bomber highlights the dangers Afghanistan could pose without a US military presence on the ground to monitor the latest developments in the country. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley said the threat from Afghanistan is currently lower than it was after the 9/11 attack, but he warned that conditions "could be set" for a reconstitution of al Qaeda or ISIS-K.

"It's a real possibility in the not too distant future -- six,12, 18, 24, 36 months that kind of timeframe -- for reconstitution of al Qaeda or ISIS," Milley said at Capitol Hill hearing last week, "and it's our job now, under different conditions, to protect the American citizens against attacks from Afghanistan."

Five takeaways from senior military leaders' testimony on Afghanistan
Calvert, who serves as the ranking member of the House Appropriations Committee Subcommittee on Defense, represented one of those killed in the suicide attack, Marine Corps Lance Corporal Kareem Nikoui. In a statement released last month, Calvert said he was briefed by national security officials on the identity of the suicide bomber and his release from Bagram prison.

In the statement, Calvert said the "disastrous" handling of the withdrawal "led to a series of events that culminated with the tragic loss of life on August 26th outside of the Kabul airport. Thirteen Americans, including one of my constituents, were killed because of the poor judgement and execution of our troop withdrawal."

The Biden administration faced widespread criticism for its withdrawal from Bagram, not only because of the decision to abandon a sprawling military complex that was the heart of the US military operations in Afghanistan for nearly 20 years, but also for the way in which it was done.

Some Afghan officials said the US left the base in the middle of the night with little warning. The Pentagon insisted there had been communication and coordination about the handover of the base about 48 hours before the US left, but that the exact time of the final departure from Bagram was never given to the Afghan government.

Majority of Bagram prisoners were terrorists
The US handed Bagram Air Base over to the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) on July 1, as the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan neared 90% completion.

At the time, there were approximately 5,000 prisoners at Bagram, an Afghan Ministry of Defense spokesman told CNN. A few hundred were criminals, but the vast majority were terrorists, the spokesman said, including members of al Qaeda, the Taliban, and ISIS. There were also foreign prisoners from Pakistan, Chechnya, and the Middle East detained there. It was up to the Afghans to secure the compound.

As the US was turning over Bagram to the ANDSF, the Taliban accelerated their sweep across the country, claiming to control 150 of Afghanistan's 407 districts by July 5. It was a sign of things to come, as provincial capitals began falling to the Taliban offensive in rapid succession. By mid-August, the Taliban were on the doorstep of Kabul and the complete collapse of the Afghan military was virtually complete.

On August 15, the day former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani secretly fled the country, the Taliban reached the capital city, taking control of Bagram air base and the Pul-e-Charkhi prison facility.

In releasing the prisoners, the Taliban introduced another threat into an already chaotic environment, just as thousands of Afghans rushed to Kabul international airport in an attempt to flee the country. Military officials warned of the possibility for an attack at the airport and a threat from ISIS-K, and the State Department repeatedly cautioned American citizens to stay from the airport or certain gates


ya

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Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« Reply #1907 on: October 10, 2021, 08:56:12 AM »
It was inevitable...The only thing I agreed with Hillary Alahamdullilah Clinton, was with her statement that if you breed snakes in your backyard, you are bound to get bitten!

G M

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Crafty_Dog

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Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« Reply #1909 on: October 12, 2021, 10:49:06 PM »
I knew about this.  Additional details/insight here.

G M

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We totally get our money's worth!
« Reply #1910 on: October 20, 2021, 05:42:49 AM »
https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/088/228/960/original/dbcbc2cc46f82256.jpg



Well, they did work with the FBI/DOJ and MI6 to steal the election, so they have that going for them.


G M

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Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« Reply #1912 on: October 21, 2021, 04:56:37 PM »
We are beyond the stupidity event horizon.



Crafty_Dog

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ya

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Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« Reply #1915 on: October 23, 2021, 08:23:39 AM »

ccp

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Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« Reply #1916 on: October 23, 2021, 10:29:54 AM »

G M

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Reminder: the Biden admin abandoned Americans to die
« Reply #1917 on: October 23, 2021, 11:38:36 AM »

https://freebeacon.com/biden-administration/the-biden-admin-said-it-left-100-americans-in-afghanistan-they-now-admit-its-far-more/

Americans WILL be left behind.



Obviously this is RumInt:

=================
I just got this from Sam Faddis. (Former CIA)

“Folks, for those of you trying to help get people out of Afghanistan. Here is assessment based on information coming out of policy circles and from sources on the ground. Biden is hard over that we will have the last military personnel out of Kabul airport NLT 31 August. We may be gone before then. Drawdown could begin within next 72 hours.

"This is not conditions based. Biden has already disregarded all sound military advice. We can expect him to continue to do so. Anybody not out by the time the last plane leaves gets cut away.

"On the ground in Kabul all processing of Afghans has effectively stopped. Only AmCits being moved. People are finally realizing on the ground that this administration really will do things that are unthinkable.

"So to translate this into terms we use in teaching how to respond to a terrorist attack. Get off the X.

"Also assessment is that Panjshir Valley will likely be overrun. May hold for a while but not indefinitely. Any Afghan who wants out needs to get across a border.

"So to translate this into terms we use in teaching how to respond to a terrorist attack. Get off the X.

"Also assessment is that Panjshir Valley will likely be overrun. May hold for a while but not indefinitely. Any Afghan who wants out needs to get across a border.

"After we are gone the plan is apparently to take down the internet, expel foreign journalists and begin the Afghan version of the killing fields.”

"Sam is former CIA"

ya

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Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« Reply #1918 on: October 23, 2021, 12:42:00 PM »
I would be surprised if the Panjshir valley folds, this Taliban does not seem to be a fighting force, but with all the US weaponry, who knows.