Author Topic: Israel, and its neighbors  (Read 965990 times)

ccp

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Re: Israel, and its neighbors
« Reply #3100 on: September 19, 2024, 03:09:07 PM »

ccp

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Re: Israel, and its neighbors
« Reply #3101 on: September 19, 2024, 03:22:24 PM »
now much of the communications cut off IDF hits Hezbollah with artillery

presumable they have hacked into other means of their communications.

My thoughts and prayers with them .

Dems must be in panic in Michigan   :wink:

AOC getting instructions as we speak from her commie advisors.....

As Jeremiah Wright said of the Jews while Obama sat in his church for yrs

"chickens are coming home to roast"  just not for the Jews.



Crafty_Dog

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GPF: George Friedman: In the Arab-Israeli War, Intentions Matter
« Reply #3104 on: September 23, 2024, 09:54:58 AM »
   
In the Arab-Israeli War, Intentions Matter

By: George Friedman

With the situation in northern Israel now escalating, it’s imperative to take stock of the purpose of the Oct. 7 attacks and what it might mean for the future of the conflict. Hamas’ intent that day was not only to kill Israelis but to take Israeli hostages. Strategically, the purpose was unclear. Hamas knew the attacks wouldn’t force Israel to capitulate to its demands or withdraw from positions that shield Israel proper from direct assault, nor was it surprised that Oct. 7 was answered by a bloody counterattack.

The Hamas operation was not intended to damage Israel so much as it was intended to enhance the group’s standing. Hamas would lose troops, but it would gain status in the broader Sunni-Shiite conflict, or so the thinking went. But there were rumors of ulterior motives. Early in the conflict, some believed other actors would reinforce Hamas in its offensive. The only real candidate for that job would have been Hezbollah, which is either aligned with Iran or Tehran’s puppet, depending on your point of view. Iran supports Hamas, but Hamas is Sunni and, therefore, not generally considered the influencer Hezbollah is. Iran is certainly hostile to Israel, but its bigger goal is the disassembly of Sunni hegemony and replacement of it with a Shiite sphere of influence. There was a rumor suggesting Hamas had known Hezbollah would not join in the attack because doing so would jeopardize its own standing. In other words, the purpose of the Oct. 7 attacks was to draw Israeli troops into a fight against a fixed urban force while weakening the Shiites.

The strategy hurt Israel but did not materially challenge its superiority. Its response, after all, has been emphatic and deadly, designed to free hostages, crush Hamas and thus secure the country. What it did do was open the door for Iran and Hezbollah. The damage done to Hamas meant that the help it sought from Hezbollah early in the conflict was marshaled late, while the impact on Hezbollah and the Iranians opened the door to a far better political position and an emerging military position, particularly in Lebanon.

At first, Hezbollah was in no position to attack, but Israel knew Hezbollah would almost certainly strike at a later date. Israel had absorbed casualties in Gaza that were painful but not crippling. It needed time to ready an assault on Lebanon. Thus came the attack last week in which Israel used small explosives in pagers and other communications devices to target Hezbollah officials, warning Hezbollah and Iran that they face an enemy now capable of having a massive impact. Iran intended a political victory, which it saw as more practical in reach and significance.

And now we are waiting for a response from Iran and Hezbollah to these new types of attacks by the Israelis that may or may not come. So then we must ask the question: How will Israel react if Iran dominates Lebanon?


ccp

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Fetterman - supports Israel again
« Reply #3106 on: September 23, 2024, 12:28:32 PM »
In contrast to serious faced Panetta

check this out:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/fetterman-on-pager-attack-in-lebanon-i-love-it/ar-AA1r0SYq?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=f862f64b80084fd7bdfd7df178105077&ei=39

 :-D :-D 8-)

an honorary

mensch .   

We should provide him with  yamukah inscribed with "thank you!" -
that goes with his sweatshirts and shorts.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Israel, and its neighbors
« Reply #3107 on: September 23, 2024, 02:30:31 PM »
He is hacking for Kommie and TDSing Trump though.

ccp

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Re: Israel, and its neighbors
« Reply #3108 on: September 23, 2024, 02:34:10 PM »
"He is hacking for Kommie and TDSing Trump though."

My sister said essentially the exact same thing.

 :-o :-o :cry:

forget the yamuka - maybe buy him a beer instead.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Israel, and its neighbors
« Reply #3109 on: September 23, 2024, 02:37:58 PM »
That'll work  :-D

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: Paradox of Israel's Hezbollah Campaign
« Reply #3110 on: September 26, 2024, 09:04:29 AM »


September 26, 2024
View On Website
Open as PDF

The Paradox of Israel’s Hezbollah Campaign
Airstrikes will undermine Iran, but they will also imperil Israel’s strategic environment.
By: Kamran Bokhari

Over the past few days, Israel’s air force has conducted hundreds of airstrikes against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon. Nearly 600 Lebanese residents, including 94 women and 35 children, were killed on Sept. 23 alone, while some 2,000 were wounded and tens of thousands were displaced. This follows the Israeli intelligence operation last week in which the Mossad intelligence agency detonated thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies carried by members of Hezbollah. Some 40 people died in that attack, while another 3,000 were wounded.

Until recently, Israel felt as though it was under attack from every direction. Since it launched its military campaign against Hamas in Gaza last year, it has been targeted by Hezbollah from Lebanon, by the Houthis from Yemen, and by Shiite militias from Syria and Iraq, leading Israel to believe the Oct. 7 attack was merely part of a broader Iranian plan against it.

And yet Israel was reluctant to expand its assault. Hezbollah – Iran’s most powerful Arab ally, and one with geographic proximity to Israel’s border – posed the biggest challenge. The group’s attacks, which started on Oct. 8, uprooted at least 60,000 Israelis from their homes in the north. Israel Defense Forces would occasionally respond, but its focus remained on Gaza. There was a concern that if Israel responded too strongly it would lead to war with Hezbollah’s patron, Iran. The Israeli strategy, then, was to keep Hezbollah off balance by targeting specific group leaders.

Gaza-Israel in the Middle East

(click to enlarge)

Meanwhile, it employed a similar strategy against Iran, keying in on command and control facilities of the Quds Force, the overseas operations arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Hitting the patron, Israel assumed, would be an effective preemptive measure. This led to Israeli airstrikes on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, which killed half a dozen senior Quds Force commanders. That attack forced Iran to get directly involved – something it didn’t want to do since doing so would expose its military limitations.

Those limitations were indeed laid bare on April 13, when Iran fired 300 missiles and drones against Israel but caused minimal damage. The incident erased many of the fears Israel had over an all-out regional war against Iran, whose conventional military capabilities were proved weak. (This is, after all, a primary reason Iran employs so many regional proxies.)

The intensity and frequency of Israeli attacks against Iran and its proxies have since picked up. On July 30, it eliminated Hezbollah’s military chief near Beirut. The next day, it killed Hamas’ leader in Tehran, where he had traveled to for the inauguration of recently elected president Masoud Pezeshkian. A few months later came the operation that weaponized pagers and walkie-talkies and the subsequent barrage of airstrikes. Israel continues to target Hezbollah military leaders, intelligence directorates, missile launch sites and weapons depots. The goal is not just to get Hezbollah to cease its attacks but to seriously degrade Hezbollah militarily and thus politically.

As of the time of writing, Israel has called up two reserve brigades for a possible ground incursion into southern Lebanon. That is not something Israel wants to do, given the nearly 20-year war it fought starting in 1982 that resulted in its own withdrawal. (This is to say nothing of the 2006 war in which Israel failed to impose defeat on Hezbollah.) But it is certainly something that Hezbollah would welcome strategically considering that it has ample experience as a guerilla and insurgent force. An Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon would, moreover, give Hezbollah an opportunity to re-brandish its bona fides as a resistance group, a reputation that has taken a serious beating from the large-scale assault that it is under.

There’s a paradox inherent to Israel’s air offensive: Though it exposes a major weakness in Iran’s otherwise successful regional strategy, it also makes Israel’s strategic environment more fragile. And it will only become more so if the international community puts more pressure on Israel to cease hostilities.

Iran and Hezbollah may have been caught off guard by the technological sophistication of last week’s pager attacks, but they have long been aware of Israeli firepower, and still neither is backing down. This suggests they believe they can endure Israeli retaliation long enough for the international community to tell Israel enough is enough. The question is: Can Israel compel Hezbollah and Iran to blink before the situation escalates?

Crafty_Dog

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Body-by-Guinness

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Bibi Speaks to the Persain People
« Reply #3112 on: September 30, 2024, 08:36:08 AM »
Netanyahu addresses the Iranian people:

“I speak a lot about the leaders of Iran. Yet at this pivotal moment, I want to address you, the people of Iran. I want to do so directly, without filters, without middlemen. Every day, you see a regime that subjugates you make fiery speeches about defending Lebanon, defending Gaza. Yet every day, that regime plunges our region deeper into darkness and deeper into war.

Every day, their puppets are eliminated. Ask Mohammed Dev. Ask Nasrallah. There is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach. There is nowhere we will not go to protect our people and protect our country.

With every passing moment, the regime is bringing you, the noble Persian people, closer to the abyss. The vast majority of Iranians know their regime doesn't care a whit about them. If it did care, if it cared about you, it would stop wasting 1,000,000,000 of dollars on feudal wars across the Middle East. It would start improving your lives. Imagine if all the vast money the regime wasted on nuclear weapons and foreign wars were invested in your children's education and improving your health care and building your nation's infrastructure, water, sewage, all the other things that you need.

Imagine that. But you know one simple thing. Iran's tyrants don't care about your future, but you do. When Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think, everything will be different. Our 2 ancient peoples, the Jewish people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace.

Our 2 countries, Israel and Iran, will be at peace. When that day comes, the terror network that the regime built in 5 continents will be bankrupt, dismantled. Iran will thrive as never before. Global investment, massive tourism, brilliant technological innovation based on the tremendous talents that exist inside Iran. Doesn't that sound better than endless poverty, repression, and war?

From Khome to Isfahan, from Shiraz to Tiberise, there are tens of millions of good and decent people with 1,000 of years of history behind them and a brilliant future ahead of them. Don't let a small group of fanatic theocrats crush your hopes and your dreams. You deserve better. Your children deserve better. The entire world deserves better.

I know you don't support the rapists and murderers of Hamas and Hezbollah, but your leaders do. You deserve more. The people of Iran should know Israel stands with you. May we together know a future of prosperity and peace.”

https://x.com/Osint613/status/1840748702001979416

ccp

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Netanyahu's message
« Reply #3113 on: September 30, 2024, 10:03:00 AM »
Let us hope them message gets through.

But prof. Obama wants us to read Sullivan's book.
While Blinks runs around appeasing the world..... :roll:

Cyrus the Great was pretty good to the Jews compared to most in the ancient times.




ccp

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Re: Israel, and its neighbors
« Reply #3115 on: October 01, 2024, 01:49:12 PM »
So is / can Israel finally take out the Iranian nuke sites

but sounds really daunting:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_facilities_in_Iran



Crafty_Dog

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CDR Salamander: Israel is settling all family business
« Reply #3117 on: October 02, 2024, 02:50:37 PM »
Israel is Settling All Family Business, That it Can
...who isn't playing is important too...
CDR Salamander
Oct 2

 

Less than a week since the invasion of Israel from Gaza and the resulting pogrom that witnessed the largest one day murder, rape, kidnapping and tortures of Jews since World War Two—it is clear that Israel has decided that it was finally time to reset and repair the damage from decades of bad international theory and delusion.

There are really two international delusions we are seeing in play, one Israel has more control over, one has yet to be fully revealed to be the folly it is.

You can see the threads heading back decades earlier, but the first delusion hit its peak during the Clinton Administration in the 1990s, the withdrawal from the Southern Lebanon security zone in 2000, and finished its summit with Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza in 2005.

The delusion was that The Smartest People in the Room™ in DC, New York, Brussels, and Tel Aviv could, if they talked enough, wished enough, and said nice things to each other enough, would find a way to get the various Palestinian. Hope, wishes, and a mistaken trust in international organizations convinced Israel to give peace a chance.

Peace had a chance, and it culminated on October 7th, 2023.

Now, it appears, Israel will take the world as it is, not as it and others wished it to be. The key part of “this world” that some schools of international security affairs for decades have refused to recognize is the common, evil thread connecting them all: The Islamic Republic of Iran.

Gaza
Hamas was always a proxy for Iran. It could not have been able to be the threat it was without two things: 1) Iran; 2) UN. There can be no returning to the world of October 6th, 2023.

Whatever status Gaza winds up having in the future, it will not be like the past. While there remains much hard work to be done in Gaza, the hardest military part is done. It will be pacified thoroughly, and then the really hard part—what will happen to the population and territory of Gaza—will have to be worked out.

Egypt wants nothing to do with it. The Arab nations have already let it be known they don’t want that radicalized population, and Israel cannot let another Hamas like governance take over that strip of land that points in to Israel like a dagger.

It appears that Israel is following a variation of my COA-A I posted four days after last year’s attacks. The bitter fruit of a half-century of bad theory will have to be fixed, somehow.

Lebanon
From its birth as a Shia militia boosted by Iran, Hezbollah has, even more than Hamas, been a proxy for Iran. Only vaguely connected to the Palestinian cause, it has simply become an advanced military force for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

For a year, well over 60,000 Israeli citizens have been internally displaced from their homes in Northern Israel due to unending rocket attack from Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. As they rightfully focused on the war in Gaza, (as President Lincoln advised, “One war at a time”), Israel took the blows with minimal response until the last few weeks.

The formerly Christian led government of Lebanon cannot police their own nation, and have not been able to for decades, and the UN is more of a problem than a solution, Israel will have to take steps to secure her own safety.

Like the Gaza situation, this will create problems down the road because the hostile population is not going anywhere. That is an issue for later. For now, the rockets must stop.

Yemen/Houthi
The same malignant theories of how the world works that begat the present problems in Lebanon and Gaza also managed to encourage Saudi Arabia, UAE, and others to disengage from the Yemeni civil war—enabling the Houthis to become a threat to international shipping in the Red Sea and the seas around the Horn of Africa. When they make a mistake of successfully attacking Israel, Israel responds accordingly. The rest of the international community “led” by the USA is not so good at keeping this sub-4th-rate power from being a threat. Unless there is a significant policy change, this will continue to fester only because we allow it to.

Sunni Arab Nations
The greatest effort towards peace since the Camp David Accords in the late 1970s was the Abraham Accords during the Trump Administration. The Gulf Arab nations, modernizing at a break-neck pace, simply want to be part of the modern world. Part of that modern world is normal relations with Israel and the good that can come from it. The big prize is Saudi Arabia. She isn’t officially there yet, but if you read some of the reports of how the Saudis are distancing themselves from the events of the last year, odds are they will when the time is ripe. Their major focus, rightfully, is…

Iran
We are all suffering from one of the greatest fails of The Smartest People in the Room™ during the Carter Administration—the enabling of the creation of The Islamic Republic of Iran. While at the end of the first quarter of the 21st Century shows the scourge of Shia Wahhabi fundamentalist threats to modernity waning (mostly), the Shia terror from Iran and her proxies continues unabated. We have also seen two occasions, the second over the last couple of days, of Iranian direct attacks on Israel. The second round looked better planned than the first, but reports are incomplete. Israel will respond, at a time and place of her choosing, but I hope she keeps to the “one war at a time” patience. It would be helpful if her best friend, the USA, had a different foreign/defense policy team with a better understanding of how the world works, but we have what we have.

USA
The USA has not abandoned Israel by any measure. Just the opposite. We continue to deploy tens of thousands of service members to the area, and are keeping the balance of our deplorable (Marc:  I suspect he means "deployable" haha) naval units in the Eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea, and Persian Gulf. During the latest attacks, reports have USS Cole (DDG 67), and USS Bulkeley (DDG 84), launching over a dozen SM-3/6 against Iran’s ballistic missiles. More valuable range time, but unsustainable until we drastically expand our production capacity. I am sure the expenditure numbers of the last year are only on the high-side, but I’d bet a year’s paid subscription to this Substack that it exceeds our annual production in 2024. Israel will need everything from spare parts to bombs to artillery ammunition over the course of the next few months. With their historic antisemitism leavened by imported Jew-hating populations, most of the European leftist governments, will with few exceptions, not help Israel and if anything will support her enemies. Europe is split, which means inaction. The new Labour government in the UK is problematic in this regard as well.

It is up to the USA to back Israel. That’s OK. It is the right place to be, but there is this important point. Israel is doing well and it knows what needs to be done. There are indications and warnings that for much of the last year, the 3,000-mile screwdriver from DC is hamstringing many of her efforts to do what must be done. That needs to end.

So, Israel, little Israel, is about to head in to her second year of war. The Gaza front at a slow boil, the Lebanon front in a rolling boil, the Houthis a pebble in the shoe, and Iran, in the distance, glaring and planning its 3rd wave.

Like it or not, the USA will be right in the middle of it. We should be in it to win it just as Israel might.

No more second chances for bad international theory. It had its few decades. There is a lot of work to be done to repair the damage.

The greatest geo-strategic beneficiary of all this? The People’s Republic of China
« Last Edit: October 02, 2024, 02:52:53 PM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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ccp

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image in post above
« Reply #3119 on: October 02, 2024, 05:53:50 PM »
looks like Jeff Zuckerberg wearing, the whatever you call it, Jihadi scarf.

I think there is some sort of name for it.

Like Nazi symbol or something.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Israel, and its neighbors
« Reply #3120 on: October 02, 2024, 06:08:48 PM »
Umm , , , you do realize it is The Babylon Bee?

Anyway,

https://unherd.com/2024/10/israel-should-hit-iran-where-it-hurts/

ccp

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Hamas tunnels 300 miles
« Reply #3121 on: October 05, 2024, 10:53:26 AM »
crisscrossing horizontally and vertically down to 120 ft.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hamas-built-an-underground-war-machine-to-ensure-its-own-survival/ar-AA1rJkmM?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=843a86748a1a4c77be80cbe29bbff5ff&ei=41

One can only imagine Iran has done the same with their nuc sites.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Israel, and its neighbors
« Reply #3122 on: October 05, 2024, 11:01:03 AM »
Fk.

ccp

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Re: Israel, and its neighbors
« Reply #3123 on: October 05, 2024, 03:15:22 PM »
I keep thinking about what happens if Israel strikes Iran's nucs as is everyone else.

Would that and assassinating some heads result in "regime change"?

First can the military mission be accomplished.  I don't know if anyone knows.

Then what?  There will be a power vacuum.

It is not like in post war Germany in which allied forces occupied Germany to ensure no return of Naziism takes place can be achieved in Iran by Israel.

Of course Israel cannot really afford NOT to go after nuc sites.

Would Iran use nucs to bomb Israel?   Also would kill Arabs.   Well they said they would if they could.  So sure.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Israel, and its neighbors
« Reply #3124 on: October 05, 2024, 04:53:02 PM »
A goodly number of years ago, Stratfor had an analysis of how tough a nut Iran would be to go after militarily for geographic reasons.   I probably posted it somewhere here haha.

Since then, the art of tunneling has evolved A LOT.   There are plenty of indications that Hamas, Hezbollah, North Korea (think of the artillery dug in the mountains overlooking South Korea for example) and the Cartels are brainstorming together.

Given the depth to which Hamas has gone down, and the operating capabilities it keeps running down there, it seems real reasonable to assume that the Iranians have done MUCH more and have it dispersed over a vast country of mountains and deserts and plateaus etc.

If Israel goes after the nukes, it had damn well be sure it gets all of them, lest the Iranians then have nothing to lose with what survives and is rebuilt.  Dirty bomb retailiations anyone? 

If this thought is correct, then hitting the oil fields/refineries/pipelines/wharfs for tankers may be the play. 
« Last Edit: October 05, 2024, 05:28:36 PM by Crafty_Dog »

ccp

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Wesley Clark states Israel needs to destroy Iran nuke sites
« Reply #3125 on: October 06, 2024, 07:25:49 AM »
Best to do soon rather then wait for what is inevitable anyway.

Iran may already have 3 nucs though better intelligence states a few days away.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/wesleyclark-israel-iran/2024/10/04/id/1182904/#:~:text=Wesley%20Clark%20told%20Newsmax%20on%20Friday%20that%20Israel

PS Didn't Bill Clinton called Wesley the "smartest " or something like that?

Crafty_Dog

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ccp

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Re: Israel, and its neighbors
« Reply #3127 on: October 06, 2024, 08:01:24 AM »
https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-natanz-uranium-enrichment-underground-project-04dae673fc937af04e62b65dd78db2e0#:~:text=In%20central%20Iran,%20workers%20are%20building%20a%20nuclear

Even megaton level nuc devices detonated under the ground on top of the Nuc sites would have trouble reaching Natanz.

and there would be nuc fallout .  Outdated (2005) but interesting:

https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/earth-penetrating-weapons 

I wonder if we have the intelligence on how to get inside these deep nuclear manufacturing facilities. Is there a way to get into them  and destroy from within.


ccp

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Olmert => speak softly and carry big stick
« Reply #3128 on: October 06, 2024, 08:29:04 AM »
https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/ehud-olmert-israel-iran/2024/10/05/id/1182966/

someone recently was pointing out same maybe should apply to Trump

Instead of threats (Trump), do the work behind the scenes just like the Dems do.


Crafty_Dog

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WaPo on the Pager operation
« Reply #3129 on: October 07, 2024, 08:47:40 AM »


Mossad’s pager operation: Inside Israel’s penetration of Hezbollah
New details emerge of Israel’s elaborate plan to sabotage Hezbollah communications devices to kill or maim thousands of its operatives.

11 min



3798

Hezbollah members carry the coffin of a fighter who was killed on Sept. 17, in the southern suburbs of Beirut. (Bilal Hussein/AP)
By Souad Mekhennet and Joby Warrick
October 5, 2024 at 5:50 p.m. EDT
TEL AVIV — In the initial sales pitch to Hezbollah two years ago, the new line of Apollo pagers seemed precisely suited to the needs of a militia group with a sprawling network of fighters and a hard-earned reputation for paranoia.

The AR924 pager was slightly bulky but rugged, built to survive battlefield conditions. It boasted a waterproof Taiwanese design and an oversized battery that could operate for months without charging. Best of all, there was no risk that the pagers could ever be tracked by Israel’s intelligence services. Hezbollah’s leaders were so impressed they bought 5,000 of them and began handing them out to mid-level fighters and support personnel in February.

None of the users suspected they were wearing an ingeniously crafted Israeli bomb. And even after thousands of the devices exploded in Lebanon and Syria, few appreciated the pagers’ most sinister feature: a two-step de-encryption procedure that ensured most users would be holding the pager with both hands when it detonated.

As many as 3,000 Hezbollah officers and members — most of them rear-echelon figures — were killed or maimed, along with an unknown number of civilians, according to Israeli, U.S. and Middle Eastern officials, when Israel’s Mossad intelligence service triggered the devices remotely on Sept. 17.

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As an act of spy craft, it is without parallel, one of the most successful and inventive penetrations of an enemy by an intelligence service in recent history. But key details of the operation — including how it was planned and carried out, and the controversy it engendered within Israel’s security establishment and among allies — are only now coming to light.

This account, including numerous new details about the operation, was pieced together from interviews with Israeli, Arab and U.S. security officials, politicians and diplomats briefed on the events, as well as Lebanese officials and people close to Hezbollah. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence. They describe a years-long plan that originated at Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv and ultimately involved a cast of operatives and unwitting accomplices in multiple countries. The Washington Post account reveals how the attack not only devastated Hezbollah’s leadership ranks but also emboldened Israel to target and kill Hezbollah’s top leader, Hasan Nasrallah, raising the risk of a wider Middle East war.

Iran launched around 180 missiles against Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israeli attacks on Hezbollah’s leadership and warned of harsher consequences if the conflict escalates.

“The resistance in the region will not back down even with the killing of its leaders,” Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said during a Friday sermon in Tehran.

But in Israel, the strike convinced the country’s political leaders that Hezbollah could be put on the ropes, susceptible to a systematic dismantling using airstrikes and, eventually, a ground invasion. Yet while marveling at the plot’s success, some officials continue to worry about the broader ripples of the strike, in a conflict that continues to spiral.

One Israeli political official, referring to the pager plot, summed up the anxieties in a quip at a meeting with Mossad officials.

“We cannot make a strategic decision such as an escalation in Lebanon while counting on a toy,” the official said.

Designed by Mossad, assembled in Israel

A photo taken on Sept. 18 in Beirut's southern suburbs shows the remnants of exploded Hezbollah pagers. (AFP/Getty Images)
The idea for the pager operation originated in 2022, according to the Israeli, Middle Eastern and U.S. officials familiar with the events. Parts of the plan began falling into place more than a year before Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack that put the region on a path to war. It was a time of relative quiet on Israel’s war-scarred northern border with Lebanon.

Among the half dozen Iranian-backed militia groups with weapons aimed at Israel, Hezbollah is by far the strongest. Israeli officials had watched with increasing anxiety as the Lebanese group added new weapons to an arsenal already capable of striking Israeli cities with tens of thousands of precision-guided missiles.

Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service responsible for combating foreign threats to the Jewish state, had worked for years to penetrate the group with electronic monitoring and human informants. Over time, Hezbollah leaders learned to worry about the group’s vulnerability to Israeli surveillance and hacking, fearing that even ordinary cellphones could be turned into Israeli-controlled eavesdropping and tracking devices.

Thus was born the idea of creating a kind of communications Trojan horse, the officials said. Hezbollah was looking for hack-proof electronic networks for relaying messages, and Mossad came up with a pair of ruses that would lead the militia group to purchase devices that seemed perfect for the job — equipment that Mossad designed and had assembled in Israel.

The first part of the plan, booby-trapped walkie-talkies, began being inserted into Lebanon by Mossad nearly a decade ago, in 2015. The mobile two-way radios contained oversized battery packs, a hidden explosive and a transmission system that gave Israel complete access to Hezbollah communications.

For nine years, the Israelis contented themselves with eavesdropping on Hezbollah, the officials said, while reserving the option to turn the walkie-talkies into bombs in a future crisis. But then came a new opportunity and a glitzy new product: a small pager equipped with a powerful explosive. In an irony that would not become clear for many months, Hezbollah would end up indirectly paying the Israelis for the tiny bombs that would kill or wound many of its operatives.

Because Hezbollah leaders were alert to possible sabotage, the pagers could not originate in Israel, the United States or any other Israeli ally. So, in 2023, the group began receiving solicitations for the bulk purchase of Taiwanese-branded Apollo pagers, a well-recognized trademark and product line with worldwide distribution and no discernible links to Israeli or Jewish interests. The Taiwanese company had no knowledge of the plan, officials said.

The sales pitch came from a marketing official trusted by Hezbollah with links to Apollo. The marketing official, a woman whose identity and nationality officials declined to reveal, was a former Middle East sales representative for the Taiwanese firm who had established her own company and acquired a license to sell a line of pagers that bore the Apollo brand. Sometime in 2023, she offered Hezbollah a deal on one of the products her firm sold: the rugged and reliable AR924.

“She was the one in touch with Hezbollah, and explained to them why the bigger pager with the larger battery was better than the original model,” said an Israeli official briefed on details of the operation. One of the main selling points about the AR924 was that it was “possible to charge with a cable. And the batteries were longer lasting,” the official said.

As it turned out, the actual production of the devices was outsourced and the marketing official had no knowledge of the operation and was unaware that the pagers were physically assembled in Israel under Mossad oversight, officials said. Mossad’s pagers, each weighing less than three ounces, included a unique feature: a battery pack that concealed a tiny amount of a powerful explosive, according to the officials familiar with the plot.

In a feat of engineering, the bomb component was so carefully hidden as to be virtually undetectable, even if the device was taken apart, the officials said. Israeli officials believe that Hezbollah did disassemble some of the pagers and may have even X-rayed them.

Also invisible was Mossad’s remote access to the devices. An electronic signal from the intelligence service could trigger the explosion of thousands of the devices at once. But, to ensure maximum damage, the blast could also be triggered by a special two-step procedure required for viewing secure messages that had been encrypted.

“You had to push two buttons to read the message,” an official said. In practice, that meant using both hands.

In the ensuing explosion, the users would almost certainly “wound both their hands,” the official said, and thus “would be incapable to fight.”

An encrypted message

In a speech at the United Nations on Sept. 27, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking to Hezbollah, said “Enough is enough.” (Eduardo Munoz/Reuters)
Most top elected officials in Israel were unaware of the capability until Sept. 12. That’s the day Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu summoned his intelligence advisers for a meeting to discuss potential action against Hezbollah, Israeli officials said.

According to a summary of the meeting weeks later by officials briefed on the event, Mossad officials offered a first glimpse into what had been one of the agency’s most secretive operations. By then, the Israelis had placed booby-trapped pagers in the hands and pockets of thousands of Hezbollah operatives.

Intelligence officials also talked about a long-held anxiety: With the escalating crisis in southern Lebanon, there was a growing risk the explosives would be discovered. Years of careful planning and deception could quickly come to naught.

Across Israel’s security establishment, an intense debate erupted, officials said. Everyone, including Netanyahu, recognized that the thousands of exploding pagers could do untold damage to Hezbollah, but could also trigger a fierce response, including a massive retaliatory missile strike by surviving Hezbollah leaders, with Iran possibly joining in the fray.

“It was clear that there were some risks,” an Israeli official said. Some, including senior Israel Defense Forces officials, warned of the potential for a full-fledged escalation with Hezbollah, even as Israeli soldiers were continuing operations against Hamas in Gaza. But others, chiefly Mossad, saw an opportunity to disrupt the status quo with “something more intense.”

The United States, Israel’s closest ally, was not informed of the booby-trapped pagers or the internal debate over whether to trigger them, U.S. officials said.

Ultimately, Netanyahu approved triggering the devices while they could inflict maximum damage. Over the following week, Mossad began preparations for detonating both the pagers and walkie-talkies already in circulation.

In Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, meanwhile, the debate over the Hezbollah campaign expanded to include another profoundly consequential target: Nasrallah himself.


A mourner holds up a poster of slain Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah in Tehran on Monday. (Vahid Salemi/AP)
Mossad had known of the leader’s whereabouts in Lebanon for years and tracked his movements closely, officials said. Yet the Israelis held their fire, certain that an assassination would lead to all-out war with the militia group, and perhaps with Iran as well. American diplomats had been pressing Nasrallah to agree to a separate cease-fire with Israel, without links to the fighting in Gaza, hoping for a deal that could lead to the withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters from the southern Lebanese bases that threatened Israeli citizens in communities near the border.

Senior Israeli officials said they voiced support for the cease-fire proposal, but Nasrallah withheld his consent, insisting on a cease-fire for Gaza first, U.S. and Middle Eastern officials said. Some senior political and military officials in Israel remained deeply uncertain about targeting Nasrallah, fearing the fallout in the region.

On Sept. 17, even as the debate in Israel’s highest national security circles about whether to strike the Hezbollah leader raged on, thousands of Apollo-branded pagers rang or vibrated at once, all across Lebanon and Syria. A short sentence in Arabic appeared on the screen: “You received an encrypted message,” it said.

Hezbollah operatives dutifully followed the instructions for checking coded messages, pressing two buttons. In houses and shops, in cars and on sidewalks, explosions ripped apart hands and blew away fingers. Less than a minute later, thousands of other pagers exploded by remote command, regardless of whether the user ever touched his device.

The following day, on Sept. 18, hundreds of walkie-talkies blew up in the same way, killing and maiming users and bystanders.

It was the first of a series of blows aimed at the heart of one of Israel’s most ardent foes. As Hezbollah reeled, Israel struck again, pounding the group’s headquarters, arsenals and logistic centers with 2,000-pound bombs.

The largest series of airstrikes occurred on Sept. 27, 10 days after the pagers exploded. The attack, targeting a deeply buried command center in Beirut, was ordered by Netanyahu as he traveled to New York for a United Nations speech in which he declared, speaking to Hezbollah, “Enough is enough.”

“We will not accept a terror army perched on our northern border, able to perpetrate another Oct. 7-style massacre,” Netanyahu said in the speech.

The next day, Sept. 28, Hezbollah confirmed what most of the world already knew: Nasrallah, the group’s fiery leader and sworn enemy of Israel, was dead.

Mekhennet reported from Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Dubai and Amman, Jordan. Warrick reported from Washington and Amman.


ccp

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Ireland at war with Israel
« Reply #3131 on: October 08, 2024, 10:31:08 AM »
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-ramps-up-invasion-of-lebanon-with-new-displacement-order-as-irish-un-troops-refuse-to-budge/ar-AA1rU8C2?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=caa5a40e58714fdcbea6d80d117902e4&ei=14

one question

where were these peacekeepers when Hezbollah was firing rockets into Israel.

My wife is Irish

I like the Irish

sad to see this.

Are there that many Radical Muslims in Ireland now?

ccp

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Can Israel destroy Natanz?
« Reply #3132 on: October 09, 2024, 06:22:41 AM »
If this is accurate - not likely if at all
not without US help

https://www.ft.com/content/4cfc2761-ec1d-4769-8ff9-f0b636255425


ccp

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MOPs
« Reply #3133 on: October 09, 2024, 09:30:09 AM »
looks like the FT post above is paywalled but bottom line these Massive Ordinance Penetrating bombs (MOP)
appear to be what is needed and I am not even clear if these would work
at Natanz (reported 300 below surface ) and Fordow (inside a mountain).

https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=30%2c000+lb+bunker+busting+bombs&mid=51E3CCF2C161F46B418251E3CCF2C161F46B4182&FORM=VIRE

https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=30,000%20lb%20bunker%20busting%20bombs&mid=9DC4CDD0B45DFD99E8839DC4CDD0B45DFD99E883&ajaxhist=0

According to FT article Israel does not have these or a clear aircraft to carry them to target but might be able to use some cargo type aircraft to carry.

Then the travel time to Iran and back would require in the air refueling and require travel over Syria Jordan Saudi Arabia or possible Turkey the latter of which I think would not allow it.








Crafty_Dog

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Re: Israel, and its neighbors
« Reply #3134 on: October 09, 2024, 10:31:52 AM »
Which is why the refueling agreement that Israel had with Azerbaijan until Baraq sabotaged it would have been so important.

Israel does have subs with cruise missiles IIRC.

How potent those missiles are I do not know.

We may be looking at a problem whose only military solution is nuke , , ,