Author Topic: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies  (Read 582611 times)

DougMacG

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1550 on: November 30, 2023, 05:44:27 AM »
"As noted by the IBD article posted recently on our forum, serious contradictions are to be found in our ability to pay for our debt and our continuing deficits AND take care of what needs doing.  This includes a dire need to reverse the declines in military spending for all the wars on the horizon."

Age old political dilemma, we need to drastically cut overall federal spending while seriously increasing military readiness.  How?

Crafty_Dog

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1551 on: December 06, 2023, 02:51:09 PM »
Oil below 70 today.  VIX in the 12s.

ccp

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1552 on: December 06, 2023, 08:11:40 PM »
so what does this mean
low volatility
oil down

? buy oil?


Crafty_Dog

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1553 on: December 07, 2023, 01:53:24 AM »
Not sure!  Market seems surprisingly sanguine, while we were see possible armageddon.  Also worth noting is that gold is around $2050 and BTC is around 44.   I experience cognitive dissonance.

DougMacG

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1554 on: December 07, 2023, 07:34:16 AM »
so what does this mean
low volatility
oil down

? buy oil?

VIX. "measures how much volatility professional investors think the S&P 500 index will experience over the next 30 days"

  - Not something I follow but it seems that stability, low volatility is good, high volatility bad.

Oil down can mean a number of things, global demand falling meaning global recession.  Could mean production increased with the recent spike in prices.  More importantly, one sign of things like food and production being more affordable going forward.

As mentioned, there are good and bad signs out there for investors and people who predict the near-term future of the economy.  ("cognitive dissonance")

Crafty_Dog

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1555 on: December 07, 2023, 08:52:44 AM »
"Not something I follow but it seems that stability, low volatility is good, high volatility bad."

Exactly how I understand the VIX.  So, given current circumstances it seems quite counterintuitive to me that it be quite low.  What am I missing?

ccp

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Crafty_Dog

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1557 on: December 12, 2023, 10:06:43 AM »
Oil down to 68.

Gold drops below 2,000.

VIX now in the 11s.

All rather inconsistent with our notion here that the world is going to hell in a handbasket.

WTF?

Crafty_Dog

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DougMacG

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US Economy, stock market, Economist warns
« Reply #1559 on: April 21, 2024, 10:07:47 AM »
https://www.ft.com/content/53f64b6b-3151-46b3-ad83-3a4732c35d41?segmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9

 APRIL 19 2024

Noted economist Mohamed El-Erian hints that the markets ignoring escalating Middle East tensions may be missing potentially dire consequences.

"recent escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel...significant consequences not only for an already unstable Middle East but also for the wellbeing of the global economy and the stability of its financial system."

"the global economy ... is already too fragile to handle a large new economic shock. Specifically, a further round of military escalation between Iran and Israel would undermine already low and fragile global growth, push up goods inflation at a time when services inflation is still too high, and impose demands on fiscal and monetary authorities that have already used up much of their policy flexibility and have limited operating space."
...
"First, two of the potential engines of global growth — the already-stressed Chinese and European economies — would be hit relatively hard given their high dependence on imported energy. 

Second, US inflation would prove even more stubborn at a time when progress in reducing price pressures has already disappointed this year, thereby acting as a bigger counter to early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 

Third, the strong dollar would get a further appreciation boost, undermining trade and financial intermediation.

And finally, with worsening economic and geopolitical situations, risk premia would increase. This would lead to higher borrowing costs than might have prevailed otherwise. "
...
"There is no doubt that the latest round of Iran-Israel hostilities has crossed many lines and durably raised the geopolitical temperature in the region. Yet markets seem keen to brush this aside, comforted by the fact that we are yet to reach the boiling point of significant human casualties and physical damage in these retaliation rounds — a point that would cause significant economic and financial dislocations. Given that this is a region that is vulnerable to errors of judgment, insufficient understanding of adversaries, and implementation accidents, that could well prove too complacent a reaction."
--------------------------

I would add this war conducted by the Houthis is already having an effect.
https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/analysis/the-houthis-and-the-red-sea-a-new-risk-to-subsea-cables/

Are ships that once passed through the Suez canal really going all the way around the Horn of Africa?  And Biden, NATO et al have no answer for it?

We live in a troubled world.  [Invest accordingly.]


Crafty_Dog

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Paul DeSisto
« Reply #1560 on: May 18, 2024, 07:06:49 AM »
The charts will not print, but hopefully the commentary is worthy:
===============

Weekly Market Update May 17, 2024

Paul M. DeSisto, CFA
May 17, 2024


Fed Funds 5.25% - 5.5%, US Ten Year 4.422%, Oil $79.99



Inflation figures reported this week showed a very slight reduction in the inflation rate, which nonetheless further energized a May rally in stocks being led by Artificial Intelligence-oriented technology stocks. The April 3.4% CPI rate, down a tenth of a point from March, was enough to remove the threat of a hike in Fed Funds and increase the chance of a rate cut in September to 67%.

There is market adage, “Sell in May, and Go Away,” based on stocks’ historical lethargy as the summer begins and market participants go on vacation. While not foolproof, it has been true often enough to warrant attention. Stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves and could be due for a significant correction. One useful study is to compare the yield on stocks to that of bonds. A stock’s yield is simply the inverse of its price earnings ratio. According to FACTSET, as of May 10th the forward P/E of the S&P 500 is 20.4 times. A P/E of 20.4 gives an earnings yield of 4.9%. That is higher than the ten-year treasury yield’s 4.42%, the first time since the dot.com crash of 2000 that the earnings yield has topped the ten-year. An earnings yield higher than the bond yield is one sign of an overpriced market. It deserves mentioning that the 20.4 P/E is above the 5-year average (19.1) and above the 10-year average (17.8).





The run-up in stocks this month suggests a momentum-driven market. To measure momentum, market technicians may use the Relative Strength Index, a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Traditionally the RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. The Dow Jones Industrial, Standard and Poor’s 500, and NASDAQ Composite are all pushing up against the 70 level. (Unsurprising, given last week’s Weekly Market Update that discussed the weakness of small cap stocks, the Russell 2000 is not so overbought.) The indices may go even higher for a while, but there will be a correction.



Despite the euphoria that came out of the inflation report, inflation has merely cooled. Prices are still rising, even if at a slower rate. Things cost more than they used to and will cost still more next year. It does not mean that things are getting better, just that they are getting worse more slowly. Higher prices have required Americans to spend more of their savings to maintain their lifestyle. The national savings rate has declined to 3.2%, the lowest in 17 years. The consumer seems to have been “tapped out,” with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index falling to a six-month low on inflation and unemployment fears. With a stock market correction becoming more likely, and with short-term bonds offering real yields (yields adjusted for inflation) of 2%, it makes sense for even the most aggressive investor to maintain a portfolio of short-term fixed income investments within their accounts.

================

I would add that from a peak of 19 (which is not a super high number, upper 20s would be in my mental map) it is back down to 13.   From 86 oil is now 79.   After fading from 2400 to 2300,  Gold is back above $2400.

Silver, which I had sort of laughed at through the years of silver ads on FOX, continues to move strongly up-- working from memory, silver meandered in the low to mid 20s, but now is over 31.

DougMacG

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Re: Paul DeSisto
« Reply #1561 on: May 19, 2024, 05:33:57 AM »
Inflation down: "things are (not) getting better, just that they are getting worse more slowly."

Savings rate: Worst in 17 years.

Stocks:  "there will be a correction."  Could be a "significant correction"

Consumer sentiment:  6 month low. (going in the wrong direction).
----------
(Doug)  Can't even be optimistic about a change election.   Polls show Trump winning, but we know to be skeptical.  Polls also show Republicans underperforming in Senate races and a strong likelihood they lose the House.  Divided government means largely status quo, not change.

World is in disarray.

Investments should be in defense mode.

ccp

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1562 on: May 19, 2024, 10:54:40 AM »
"Polls also show Republicans underperforming in Senate races and a strong likelihood they lose the House.  Divided government means largely status quo, not change."

Yes, and Bill O'Reilly echoed our sentiment here:

Something to the effect that "I am worried about our country".  With everything as bad as it is and R's still can't win the Houses.

So even if Trump gets elected

we will here on day one about the new resistance.
we will find out how many Biden executive orders will block Trump
everyone Dem within 50 miles will be pardoned in advance - if possible

we will have a Dem Congress
and we the R's will not be able to turn anything around

I suspect the down races are favorable to the Dems because of the massive cash rolling in from the millionaire / billionaire class.

Too much rich money coming in
distorting our political process to the Left.

ccp

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Crafty_Dog

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Paul DeSisto
« Reply #1564 on: June 28, 2024, 07:05:55 PM »
Weekly Market Update June 28, 2024

Paul M. DeSisto, CFA
June 28, 2024
Fed Funds 5.25% - 5.5%, US Ten Year 4.36%, Oil $81.45



Comments about stocks being overvalued have become more commonplace as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 made record high after record high through the first half of the year. One indicator of overvaluation is the ratio of stock market capitalization of all stocks on United States exchanges to Gross Domestic Product. This ratio is also known as the Buffet ratio, after Warren Buffet who popularized its use. Presently the Wilshire 5000 index of all common stocks are worth $50 trillion, 1.8 times GDP of $28 trillion, which is much higher than the historic multiple of .75 to 1.0 times.

A more familiar quantitative tool for measuring stock market valuation is price-earnings ratios. In 1990, after the hyper-inflation of the late 70’s and early 80’s had been tamed, we enjoyed a great bull market in bonds as interest rates steadily declined for the next 30 years. That was good for all financial assets including stocks, and the average P/E ratio of the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose over that time to 23.35.



The current P/E based on twelve-months of trailing earnings is 28.38. By that metric the market is overvalued. However, based on twelve-month forward earnings the market sits at a P/E of 21.0 as the red line in the chart below shows, a tad undervalued.



So far so good. Of course, were the economy to enter a recession and earnings not materialize as expected, the P/E ratio would initially increase, indicating an overpriced market. Stock prices would then decline to return the P/E to a more appropriate level. Interest rates would play into this. Higher interest rates are harmful to stock returns by making higher yielding fixed income securities more attractive to investors, while simultaneously increasing corporate borrowing costs and lowering earnings.

Also note the lower P/E ratios of mid-cap and small cap stocks. Limited in their ability to raise funds in the capital markets, these companies are forced to borrow from banks at higher interest rates than would otherwise be available. Debt payments are a drag on their earnings and cash flow. Notice how smaller companies outperformed their larger cousins during periods of very low interest rates, as happened after the financial crisis or the early months of Covid. Currently undervalued, I would expect them to catch up with the large cap stocks once there is a significant drop in short-term interest rates. Until then large cap stocks will continue to drive the market.

Have a Wonderful Week

Crafty_Dog

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1565 on: July 25, 2024, 11:13:22 AM »
Big drops today in VIX, Gold, and Silver.

Crafty_Dog

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PEG ratio
« Reply #1566 on: August 17, 2024, 09:25:38 AM »
Noat long ago somewhere here we posted about contradictions between the yen, the dollar and interest rates.  Apparently that had something to do with the recent abrupt dive.

Anyway, I find the PEG ratio discussed here interesting.

https://www.mrcapco.com/blog/weekly-market-update-august-16-2024?utm_campaign=Weekly+Market+Update+August+16%2c+2024&utm_medium=email&utm_source=contacts:all&utm_content=blog+image+link&utm_term=AUG+2024&cmid=d8c2d25b-27a9-46d3-aaf3-3fc347e25d07

Crafty_Dog

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ccp

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How majority leader "emeritus"
« Reply #1569 on: January 31, 2025, 06:32:24 AM »
net worth $272 million

Holly cow!!! :-o

seems to double every 3 to 4 yrs.

hmmm.   Her hubby is one hell of a stock trader.    :wink:


ccp

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BTC down
« Reply #1570 on: February 02, 2025, 01:42:38 PM »
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

Due to tariffs?

Market down big tomorrow?


Crafty_Dog

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Prediction of liquidation bear market
« Reply #1571 on: March 12, 2025, 06:33:00 AM »
Know that Zero Hedge has strong bear tendencies.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-03-10/signs-liquidation-bear-market

ccp

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Trump probably tweet storming this
« Reply #1572 on: March 12, 2025, 06:51:52 AM »
 :-D

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-data-cools-in-february-easing-investor-fears-about-the-health-of-the-us-economy-123241312.html

The CNN libs will either ignore or mention it for 1 minutes and then add the *but* to downplay it.

DougMacG

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Inflation 2.8%
« Reply #1573 on: March 12, 2025, 08:54:50 AM »

DougMacG

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Re: Prediction of liquidation bear market
« Reply #1574 on: March 12, 2025, 09:09:15 AM »
Know that Zero Hedge has strong bear tendencies.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-03-10/signs-liquidation-bear-market

I wish I knew when, where the bottom will be, I would like to get back in at some point.

Crafty_Dog

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VIX
« Reply #1575 on: April 05, 2025, 06:14:35 AM »
VIX at 45.

 :-o :-o :-o

Body-by-Guinness

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Trump Popping the Market Bubble?
« Reply #1576 on: April 07, 2025, 01:41:10 PM »
Is Trump killing several birds w/ a single stone?

On Friday, Forbes ran a story headlined, “Oil Prices Drop 7% To Four-Year Low As Tariff Fallout Sparks Recession Fears.” In other words, pre-Biden oil prices are somehow bad news. Only to Forbes, though. Since oil prices affect the cost of everything, plunging fuel prices predict still lower grocery store bills.

Wall Street is crying— but Main Street is dancing.

This is quickly exposing one of the great hypocrisies of the age: the Democrats, long self-branded the “people’s party,” are the ones most hysterical about the stock market. Just as the pandemic revealed their indifference to actual working people, today’s Wall Street freakouts expose where their real loyalties lie.

For 80% of Americans, ‘stock portfolios’ consist of a package of double-stuffed Oreos, a bag of slowly dissolving onions, and whatever else is in the pantry at the moment. So when Democrats cry about “market instability,” they’re not defending the working class. They’re defending fund managers, billionaires, hedge funders, donor classes, and Congressional stock speculators. In other words, their people.

💰 But consider this. Is the stock market adjustment a bug or a feature? Trump called it “medicine,” but what is he treating? He said the market medicine would treat “something,” like a vague placeholder standing in for a diagnosis he knows but won’t name. So let’s take a swing at filling in the blank.

image 7.png
Trump has already defanged the deep state by turning off its taxpayer cash-to-NGO spigot. So we know he’s laser-focused on stripping our enemies’ financial weapons. But what about the money they already stole? Money they can use to create mischief, fund paid protests and lawfare, and otherwise hogtie the agenda? The billions Biden pumped into their networks over the last four years?

That money isn’t sitting around in zero-interest checking accounts. They didn’t use it to buy Costco gold bars, either.

Those billions of hoovered-up taxpayer money that Biden lavished on leftwing NGOs is almost certainly invested in the stock market. Could this ‘adjustment’ —and let’s be honest, it’s a long overdue correction— be intentionally aimed at draining the progressive war chest and also pre-emptively popping the overpriced market bubble that Trump inherited?

In other words, the medicine will fix both the market Trump inherited and drain the progressive war chest that funds paid protests, lawfare, election subversion, and every alphabet NGO ending in “justice” or “equity.”

Since the Obama era, financial bigwigs like Warren Buffett have rung alarm bells about overheated stock prices. The problem was intensified by big bailouts and market manipulation (like SPACs) that added nothing to underlying values while the DJIA spiraled ever higher, ever closer to the Sun. The markets teetered on the high wire of unbelievably risky FAANG stocks, wherein seven tech companies hog the first third of the entire Dow Jones’s value.

Last year, Warren Buffett famously liquidated most of his portfolio into cash. Well before the election. No press conference. No panic. Just $334 billion dollars saying, We’re getting off this rickety roller coaster.

Trump’s enemies—media pundits, establishment economists, champagne-globalist think tankers— publicly and often hoped he’d walk right into a Wall Street trap: an overpriced, overstimulated market ripe for correction, just in time for him to own the crash. The Dow was frothy, valuations were stretched, and recession whispers were already in the air when he stepped back into office.

Could Trump at once be fixing the markets and also fixing the Democrats’ slush funds for good? Are those the things the medicine fixes? The timing fits. If medicine like this must be taken, then it’s best to choke it down early in the presidential term. We haven’t even hit 100 days yet.

You’d think at least one of the “experts” would remember the last sixteen years of warnings about the sky-high Dow. But don’t hold your breath waiting for fake news to explain it.

Luckily, we’ve got other ways to get the message out now.

Trump said, “Hang tough, it won’t be easy, but the end result will be historic.” And if he pulls this off — if he resets the stock market, starves the slush funds, and rebuilds the markets on the back of real, global trade deals instead of reckless financial gimmicks — then he won’t just make America great again.

He will make history. And I, for one, plan on enjoying every minute of it.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/trump-sneezed-monday-april-7-2025

DougMacG

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Wall Street's biggest day in 24 years
« Reply #1577 on: April 10, 2025, 06:23:18 AM »
Update, scratch that. Down so far today. Like watching the weather around here. Most people have more invested in their home. We don't watch the value of that go up and down day to day, month to month.
----------------
https://donsurber.substack.com/p/world-cheers-trumps-10-tariff?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1115457&post_id=160971819&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=9bg2k&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
--------------
yesterday was the best in history in terms of point increase on the Dow (nearly 3,000 points up), and one of the best ever for percentage gain.
--------------
(Doug). I'm mostly out of the market but it would seem to me that people who trusted Trump stayed in and people who hate Trump probably bailed out, locking in losses and missing out on the rebound.

Chuck Schumer wants an insider trading investigation.

More volatility ahead, no doubt.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2025, 09:39:29 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1578 on: April 10, 2025, 06:52:58 AM »
VIX has been way high.

DougMacG

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1579 on: April 10, 2025, 08:14:04 AM »
VIX has been way high.

The trade disputes are far from over, and what are investors supposed to think about an unknown 'reconciliation' bill coming or not coming from Congress?