Author Topic: The Middle East: War, Peace, and SNAFU, TARFU, and FUBAR  (Read 418615 times)

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: Opportunities Arise!
« Reply #1450 on: October 10, 2024, 03:34:25 AM »
October 10, 2024
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In the Middle East Conflict, Opportunities Arise
Iran’s losses could be Turkey’s gains.
By: Kamran Bokhari

The conflict between Iran and Israel has set the Middle East down a path toward a slow but significant strategic shift. Iran’s flagging influence has created an opportunity for the region’s Sunni Arab states to tip the balance of power in their favor, but they will likely be unable to do so. The one country that possibly can is Turkey, mired though it is in its own domestic problems. Either way, the change underway will be a long, messy process.

Iran and Turkey in the Middle East

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As of Oct. 9, several escalatory elements are in play. U.S. President Joe Biden is slated to speak on the phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss how he plans to respond to Iran’s recent missile bombardment. This follows a last-minute decision by Netanyahu to cancel a trip by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to Washington to discuss Israel’s war plans. Elsewhere, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is due to arrive in the Saudi capital of Riyadh to discuss regional security in light of the conflict.

The Biden administration is, of course, on its way out, and it is trying to leverage Israel’s dependence on U.S. military aid to shape the response to Iran. Its goal is to keep Israel from targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure, as an attack of that kind would create even more problems for the United States and its allies in the region. Israel simply wants Washington to go along with as many of its plans as possible.

Regardless of how severely Israel responds, the reality is that Iran has already sustained heavy blows to its regional position. Its premier proxy, Hezbollah, has been decimated, its leadership and offensive capabilities greatly degraded. It took years for Tehran to build Hezbollah, using resources made scarce by a grueling sanctions regime against it. The group is the foundation of Iranian power projection capability in the Arab world, and it is central to Tehran’s plans to create an arc of influence stretching to the Eastern Mediterranean. For its part, Hezbollah is trying to mitigate the political fallout of the destruction of its military capabilities. It knows it is no longer the weapon it once was, so it needs to preserve its position at home. Iran’s other regional proxies – its militias in Iraq and Syria and the Houthis in Yemen – are not as powerful as Hezbollah and are no doubt considering their future, especially as Israel plans to punish their patron.

So far, Iran has managed to maintain a perception of power because it has yet to be hit inside its borders. But the fact that Hezbollah is bearing the brunt of the Israeli assault exposes the limits of Iran’s reliance on proxy warfare and likely undermines the morale of the so-called axis of resistance. Sensing this, Iran’s many regional competitors may be emboldened to take advantage of the situation, which is nothing short of historic. The founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979 – itself a consequence of post-world war Sunni fragmentation – ushered in a new era of geosectarian rivalries that had been dormant for centuries. Tehran had already been cultivating ties with Shiite actors throughout the Arab world by the time the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003. That war merely accelerated Iran’s proxy project, which enabled Tehran to deeply penetrate the Arab world. The last time Shiites posed a major challenge to a Sunni-majority Middle East was during the early 16th century with the rise of the Safavid Empire. (The Ottomans were in control of Syria and Iraq at the time, so in some ways modern Iran has achieved what no other government has.)

Iran’s regional strategy demanded that it block Turkey where it could. Frustrated, Turkey watched with dismay at how Iran exploited the conflicts in the Arab world, especially the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, to advance its ambitions and create crises on Turkey’s southern flank. Iran’s losses in the region, then, are Turkey’s gains. Turkey has already begun to improve its relations with Syria after more than a decade of hostility. The Assad regime has been trying to rehabilitate itself for years. Toward that end, it is happy to reduce its dependence on Iran, Hezbollah and other militias, and it has every interest in distancing itself from the Israeli-Iranian confrontation. Here is where the interests of Ankara and Damascus converge. The only constraint Syria has in pulling away from Iran is the fear of a revived Sunni rebellion. Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah are likely emboldening Sunni rebel groups, but if Turkey, which has backed them in the past, is willing to restrain these groups, then an understanding can be reached.

Turkey and Syria also have overlapping interests in limiting the growth of Syrian Kurdish separatists. Syrian President Bashar Assad wants to regain control of the territory he lost in the northeast, and Ankara wants to weaken Kurdish separatism in Syria because it poses a threat to Turkey. Clearly, Ankara has its work cut out for it, and Tehran will not give up without a fight.

After all, Syria is critical to Iran’s connection with Hezbollah and key to the survival of the pro-Iranian Shiite-dominated regime in Iraq. The presence of a Sunni Arab majority on both sides of the Syrian-Iraqi frontier is a threat to Iranian ambitions and a potential asset for Turkey to roll back Iranian influence in the northern rim of the Middle East.


Crafty_Dog

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GPF
« Reply #1452 on: October 14, 2024, 06:41:06 PM »
Saving Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on Russia, Iran and Syria to work together to defend the region against Kurdish terrorism and what he called Israel’s “efforts to spread the war” throughout the Middle East. Erdogan accused the U.S., Britain and Germany of threatening Syria’s territorial integrity through their support of Kurdish militias and said a similar situation was developing in Iraq. Meanwhile, after a nine-month pause, Russia announced preparations for an international meeting on Syria, to be held in Astana, Kazakhstan.

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Crafty_Dog

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GPF: Iraq in the Crosshairs
« Reply #1455 on: November 11, 2024, 07:33:46 AM »
BTW, in the context of this article, note Trump's recent call to Turkey.  Could this, as much as Ukraine, have been part of the convo?
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November 11, 2024
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Iraq in the Crosshairs of the Israel-Iran War
The conflict between Israel and Iran is spreading to Iraq.
By: Kamran Bokhari

After its premier proxy Hezbollah suffered unprecedented losses in the war with Israel, it is time to reevaluate the state of Iran’s disproportionate influence in the Middle East. Continuing to project power along the region’s northern rim will become challenging for Tehran. The issue isn’t just Lebanon but also Syria – which is why Iraq will become even more critical to Iran, a country that is well beyond the limits of its power.

Last week, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken each spoke to Iraq's prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, about Iranian efforts to use Iraqi territory to mount a strike on Israel. Their message, in so many words, was clear: If Iran uses Iraq to launch an attack on Israel, Israel is liable to attack Iraq on its territory. These conversations come amid reports that Iran is planning a “strong and complex” response to Israel’s recent attack on Iranian soil – for which Iraq will be a key element.

History shows that major military threats to Iran have largely emanated from the west. Alexander the Great conquered the Persian Achaemenid Empire from this route in the 3rd century B.C. In the 7th century, the Persian Sasanid Empire was gravely wounded by the Byzantine Empire, which was based in modern-day Turkey but came down through Iraq. In the 16th century, the Safavid Empire similarly fought the Ottomans along this path. And a little over a year after the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Iraq invaded Iran on its western flank leading to a devastating eight-year war. This explains why Iraq has been so fundamental to the Islamic Republic’s national security strategy.

To that end, Iran has leveraged its ideological (Islamist) and sectarian (Shiite) bona fides to pursue imperial ambitions in the Arab world – even if much of its pursuit was opportunistic. The 1991 Gulf War, in which a U.S.-led coalition weakened the Iraqi regime, gave Iran the chance it needed to begin the process of turning Iraq from a strategic liability into a strategic asset. Thus, it began to support the Shiite majority and the Kurdish minority against the Baathist regime. By the time Washington invaded Iraq again in 2003, Iran was well positioned to become the biggest beneficiary of U.S. regime-change efforts. The eight-year U.S. occupation, during which Iraq fell into the Iranian orbit, was a boon to Iranian regional influence. The U.S. withdrawal in 2011, such as it was, allowed Tehran to consolidate its control over Iraq. Having created Hezbollah in the 1980s and forged closer ties to Syria in the 1990s, Iraq was the final piece of the puzzle that gave Iran uninterrupted influence stretching across to the Mediterranean Sea. The outbreak of the Syrian civil war and the 2014 seizure of Mosul by the Islamic State allowed Tehran to wield this influence at will.

Iran's Sphere of Influence in the Middle East

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The defeat of the Syrian rebels in late 2016 and the 2018 destruction of the Islamic State, then, made a confrontation with Israel inevitable. Israel was monitoring how Iran, in conjunction with Hezbollah, had established a presence on its northern flank, especially in Syria. Thus by 2017, the Israel Defense Forces had established a cadence of periodic airstrikes on facilities and supply lines of the Quds Force, the overseas operations arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. IDF strikes largely focused on Syria and were designed to prevent Iran from threatening Israel in the Golan region.

Israel’s response to the Oct. 7 attacks has further disrupted Iran’s regional strategy. Tehran now has to focus on rebuilding Hezbollah and at a time when it cannot rely on its erstwhile ally Syria, which has no interest in involving itself in the war. Iran has no choice, then, but to make sure it can maintain its grip over Iraq. This is especially the case since Iran has no answer to Israeli attacks on its assets in Lebanon and Syria. Iraqi airspace has become an avenue through which Israel can conduct airstrikes on Iran. Now, Iran hopes to use Iraqi soil to launch missiles at Israel.

If the war escalates and spreads to Iraq, Tehran’s entire western sphere of influence will become a battlespace. The fighting will likely loosen Iran’s grip on power in both places and leave it vulnerable to countries such as Turkey, which would like to expand its geopolitical footprint in Syria and Iraq, after decades of being blocked by Tehran.

Crafty_Dog

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George Friedman: War without Decision Part 2
« Reply #1456 on: Today at 08:23:37 AM »


   
War Without Decision: Consequences – Part 2
By: George Friedman

We tend to view unrest as an internal event, usually contained in a given nation or region. But sometimes there are cases in which unrest spreads through fear or greed beyond a nation’s terminus, thereby changing the region and even the world beyond. Such is the case in the Middle East.

The process goes something like this: Internal unrest in a country creates fear in another country that the unrest will spread there. The fear then is that the unrest will generate military action in the other country. Both nations may adopt a defensive posture or be frightened enough to act aggressively. Fear and hope are the foundation and engine of war. Unrest is the generator.

Russia in Relation to the Middle East

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It is commonly said that war is unlikely in this region because its nations are weak. Strength and weakness are relative, and these nations should be compared not to the United States but to each other. How strong one nation is relative to the other determines the outcome. Terrain and geography are constants, but fear has a remarkable historical ability to overcome them and does not make war impossible. Wars are the most possible human thing.

Iran, which lies in the middle of the Middle East, is a country at distant war with the United States and Israel. Iran has the largest army in the Middle East, a substantial armored force and what appears to be a significant missile arsenal. It has been argued that it doesn’t have the ability to move its armored forces into combat because of the surrounding terrain, the distance to its enemies and its inability to supply fuel to the battlefield. (I am skeptical; Iran is a major oil producer and I expect it has enough refining capabilities to deliver fuel where it needs to go.) In looking at Iran’s terrain and road access with neighboring states, I think the obvious conclusion is that Iran does, in fact, have the ability to project power in the region and strike with missiles effectively. At a minimum, planners must assume that Iran’s military can operate at distance. Its strategic position may allow it to strike in multiple directions, including northward to Russia, and face a possible Russian move south.

The risk of a major war in the heart of the Middle East, a critical and strategic region, is not trivial, nor is the prospect of Iran starting a war at distance. The ability of the United States to quickly deploy a blocking force to defend, say, Saudi Arabia is dubious and thus creates a dangerous situation. The U.S. has a vital interest in maintaining a stable world, so leaving some countries to the mercy of others would create long-term pain, even if in the short term it wouldn’t.