Author Topic: Taiwan  (Read 50505 times)







ccp

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Re: Taiwan
« Reply #256 on: January 28, 2025, 06:13:42 AM »
I once owned some TSM stock.  Bought at 14 sold at 17 and thought I did good.

what was it's high 221? 

 :-o

For yrs I avoided buying it as we all know it is just a matter of when CCP invades - they will - and they will succeed based on everything we read.

when they do get taken over do we accept them as political asylum immigrants?

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Taiwan
« Reply #257 on: January 28, 2025, 07:26:12 AM »
Remember when Vivek said guarantee Taiwan until we had our own chip capabilities?

ccp

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Re: Taiwan
« Reply #258 on: January 28, 2025, 07:44:51 AM »
not really

but I do recall that alledged reports that we lose every war game with China and XI telling us we can't stop them.

Are we really going to start WW3 over Taiwan?  Just being realistic.


Crafty_Dog

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2023: Vivek on Taiwan
« Reply #259 on: January 28, 2025, 08:10:24 AM »
Here you go:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/vivek-ramaswamy-takes-nationalist-logic-to-its-obvious-horrifying-conclusion/



Politics & Religion / Ramaswamy on Taiwan
« Message by Crafty_Dog on August 15, 2023, 09:31:01 PM »
Vivek Ramaswamy Takes Nationalist Logic to Its Obvious, Horrifying Conclusion
By NOAH ROTHMAN
August 15, 2023 3:35 PM

Nationalist Republicans who oppose the continued provision of aid and lethal arms to Ukraine sometimes argue that the West’s commitment to degrading Russia’s capacity to project power abroad comes at a steep cost. America is a strained, reeling great power, they argue, and every dollar devoted to European security is one that is not spent on the more acute threat to U.S. dominance posed by China. Millennial GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has made many of these now rote arguments, but he has done the public a service by taking the nationalist line to its logical conclusion.

“Xi Jinping should not mess with Taiwan,” Ramaswamy told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt on Monday. That is, “until we have achieved semiconductor independence,” the candidate continued, “until the end of my first term when I will lead us there.”

“After that,” Ramaswamy inadvisably added, “our commitments to Taiwan — our commitments to be willing to go to military conflict — will change after that, because that’s rationally in our self-interest. That is honest. That is true, and that is credible.”

He’s right about that. When an American president vacillates on his willingness to preserve the deterrent dynamics that make hostile foreign powers think twice about invading their neighbors, the world’s land-hungry despots stand up and take notice. Just ask Joe “minor incursion” Biden.

A purely libertarian conception of maximum economic efficiency would reject the market distortions necessary to repatriate critical defense-related industries back to American shores. Conservatives have traditionally been willing to absorb the economic inefficiency necessary to maintain a strong national defense. But the conceptually desirable effort to create a thriving domestic semiconductor industry has been complicated to the point of failure by this administration’s desire to pair that policy with populist immigration restrictions — a policy with which the populist right agrees. Perhaps the Taiwanese can breathe easier knowing we are so dedicated to self-sabotage that a potential President Ramaswamy will never be in a position to consign the Eastern Pacific to Chinese domination as he might like.

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But his comments are revealing, too, of how Republicans inclined toward nationalist populism invoke the Chinese threat only to bludgeon conventional conservatives with it. The logic of reducing our dependence on foreign manufacturers of defense-related components is that their utility to us diminishes as our dependence is reduced. That message is conveyed as much to our allies as our adversaries. Necessary though it might be, repatriating those industries must be paired with a robust commitment to an indissoluble relationship with our partners abroad, lest those who covet their lands get the wrong idea.

To hear the nationalist right tell it, the only combatants in a fight between the U.S. and China will be the U.S. and China. That is, of course, nonsense. America’s regional partners will man the front lines of that conflict: the Republic of Korea, Japan, Australia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and, yes, Taiwan. They aren’t going to gamble their sovereignty on weak-kneed Washingtonians. Alliance structure suggests they will seek their own accommodations with the aggressor in their neighborhood if they cannot balance against it by aligning with the great power on the other side of the Pacific. China would have a much easier time turning the South China and Philippine Seas into Chinese lakes and putting an end to the U.S.-backed global maritime-trade regime if America signals that its interests are as parochial as Ramaswamy suggests they should be
« Last Edit: January 28, 2025, 08:16:51 AM by Crafty_Dog »

DougMacG

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Re: Taiwan
« Reply #260 on: January 29, 2025, 10:15:12 PM »
Vivek has had to walk things back before.

Look at the future map with Taiwan under a China rule and see an amazing improvement in China's ability to project power outward, such as toward the United States.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Taiwan
« Reply #261 on: January 30, 2025, 05:53:19 AM »
My intended point is that his line of thinking is tempting for those who think that ultimately we cannot defend Taiwan (and IMHO this certainly is not a stupid thought!) and that therefore moving chip capacity to America is vital to our national security.   Trump's recent noises regarding the latter point are consistent with this.


If this is so, the unspoken between China and us is "Give us the space to rectify our chip dependence on Taiwan (ten years?) and we will not contest Taiwan falling into your hands."

With this as a backdrop, Trump's noises on Greenland, Panama, and even Canada take on additonal meaning.

ccp

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Crafty_Dog

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Re: Taiwan
« Reply #263 on: January 31, 2025, 04:25:24 PM »
Good!!!

Crafty_Dog

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FO: Trump flexes in Taiwan Straight
« Reply #264 on: February 13, 2025, 07:03:52 AM »


(10) U.S. NAVY SENDS SURVEY SHIP THROUGH TAIWAN STRAIT: The United States Navy sailed an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer and the USNS Bowditch survey ship through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday.

China has previously harassed the Bowditch out of the Yellow Sea in 2001, 2002, and 2003. The People’s Liberation Army Navy seized Bowditch’s underwater drone in 2016.

Why It Matters: This flotilla’s composition is unusual and the presence of a “spy ship” in this sensitive area is likely to incense the Chinese. Repeated provocations such as these Freedom of Navigation Operations, cooperation with the Philippines’ Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activities, and large scale exercises aimed at China will increase tensions in the short term but ultimately may lead to China backing down from its more aggressive activities. - J.V.



Crafty_Dog

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FO: State Dept removes key clause
« Reply #267 on: February 19, 2025, 11:01:01 AM »


(8) TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE CLAUSE REMOVED FROM STATE DEPT. SITE: Taiwanese officials publicly announced their thanks for the U.S. State Department removing a clause that it will “not support Taiwan independence” from its U.S.-Taiwan Relations page. The Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman declared the removal was “against international law and the basic norms of international relations.”

Why It Matters: The Biden administration previously removed this clause but quickly returned it after the Chinese protested. The Trump admin is unlikely to add the clause back. In combination with the tariffs viewed as Chinese containment, Chinese demographic challenges, and American reindustrialization plans, China may feel pressured into making a move on Taiwan early while China still appears to have the upper hand. - J.V.

Crafty_Dog

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GPF
« Reply #268 on: February 19, 2025, 12:47:12 PM »
second

   
Daily Memo: Taiwan Eyes Defense Deal
By: Geopolitical Futures

Investments in the U.S. Taiwan is reportedly in talks on a multibillion-dollar deal to purchase arms from the United States, hoping to curry favor with the Trump administration and demonstrate its commitment to defending itself. The acquisition is likely to include coastal defense cruise missiles and High Mobility Artillery Rockets. Relatedly, Taiwanese electronics manufacturers are reportedly planning to expand their production facilities in the United States.

=========

FO

Taiwanese reform. Taiwan is reportedly restructuring its marine corps to improve its coastal strike capabilities. The corps will form a new brigade modeled on the U.S. marine littoral regiment system to create a more agile and modern force.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2025, 02:02:09 PM by Crafty_Dog »


Crafty_Dog

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FO: Taiwanese-US teamwork in drones and satellites
« Reply #270 on: March 10, 2025, 08:44:02 AM »


(7) U.S. AND TAIWAN TO JOINTLY DEVELOP DRONES AND SATELLITES: Raymond Greene, director of the American Institute in Taiwan and de facto ambassador to Taiwan, said that the U.S. and Taiwan would likely work together to develop drones, satellites, and asymmetric warfare capabilities.

Greene also proposed the U.S. becoming Taiwan’s most reliable source of LNG and nuclear energy.

Why It Matters: Quicker weapons development and increased energy supply on the U.S. would grant Taiwan greater de facto independence from China. Creating energy supply chains would put our merchant fleet in immediate danger during a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, further guaranteeing our involvement. This is going to anger China but will also lessen the likelihood of China instituting a blockade since they have a greater risk of bringing the entire anti-China coalition into the fight. - J.V.

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: Deepening cooperation with Taiwan
« Reply #272 on: March 19, 2025, 10:28:18 AM »


Defense review. Taiwan aims to deepen military cooperation with the U.S., according to its 2025 Quadrennial Defense Review. The report outlines plans for high-level strategic dialogues, drill observations, tabletop exercises and intelligence sharing. Taiwan seeks these exchanges to enhance its long-range precision strikes, battlefield command, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities.

Crafty_Dog

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FO: Taiwan-Japan
« Reply #273 on: March 21, 2025, 10:45:22 AM »

(9) TAIWAN APPOINTS TOP JAPANESE OFFICER AS ADVISOR: Taiwan’s executive cabinet appointed Japanese General Shigeru Iwasaki to a government advisor position this morning. Iwasaki formerly served in Japan’s highest military position, the Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff. Iwasaki will advise the Taiwanese government on policy for one year.

================

(9) TAIWAN QUADRENNIAL DEFENSE REVIEW 2025: Taiwan released its final Quadrennial Defense Review before the 2027 Chinese military preparedness deadline.
Taiwan intends to run a whole-of-nation defense concept including mass mobilization, civil-military integration, countering gray zone tactics, and running messaging operations on its own people.
The government will also seek a regional “collective deterrence” which includes more military cooperation with the United States.
Why It Matters: Earlier this month, we reported on a U.S. Naval War College International Law professor recommending allies ignore the International Court of Justice rulings that established the gray zone concept and denied a collective right of self defense to the United States. Taiwan appears to be taking that to heart. To that end, I expect regional partners of Taiwan to run near-concurrent exercises to Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercise where Taiwan will test their national defense strategy. China’s diplomacy in the next few years will likely be colored by the effectiveness of Taiwan’s strategy and the overtness of the support given by regional partners. - J.V.
Global Rollup
(10) TAIWAN TO BUY LNG FROM ALASKA: Taiwan sent a non-binding letter to the Trump administration stating it would invest in the Alaska liquid natural gas projects and subsequently buy LNG from there.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2025, 11:51:46 AM by Crafty_Dog »


Crafty_Dog

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FO: Taiwan Food Reserves
« Reply #275 on: March 27, 2025, 07:38:27 PM »
(14) TAIWAN’S FOOD RESERVES TO LAST ONE YEAR: Taiwan’s Agriculture Minister told his legislature that Taiwan’s state-run food reserves normally last eight to twelve months. He also said there are five and a half months worth of grains still in store and that none of these calculations include the private sector reserves. (This significantly extends the operational burden on China and would likely result in the anti-China coalition successfully running the blockade to extend Taiwan’s resistance. - J.V.)