Author Topic: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc  (Read 325354 times)

ccp

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #250 on: March 07, 2020, 03:57:13 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/03/02/doctor-paul-offit-coronavirus-pandemic-trump-response-aman.cnn

At this point reading mostly the same stuff everyone else reads
I agree with the virologist

this is similar to flu. which has been "grandfathered " in.

However older people and those with chronic lung or heart issues like copd heart failure significan liver or kidney should be concerned and very cautious

the risk to nursing homes etc is alarming.

Problem is we don't yet have wide testing available so the extent is unknown
My best guess is there are 50 to 100 K people walking around now with it we don't see.
I see 25 to 40 patients a day all day long with respiratory illness some of which may well be covid 19.

As result all we hear are the announcements of the deaths the case reports in states making headlines
etc.

increasing the panic






G M

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #251 on: March 07, 2020, 06:39:15 PM »
Sure. China welds people into buildings and shuts down it's economy to the point where the CCP is facing violent revolution because of bad flu.



https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/03/02/doctor-paul-offit-coronavirus-pandemic-trump-response-aman.cnn

At this point reading mostly the same stuff everyone else reads
I agree with the virologist

this is similar to flu. which has been "grandfathered " in.

However older people and those with chronic lung or heart issues like copd heart failure significan liver or kidney should be concerned and very cautious

the risk to nursing homes etc is alarming.

Problem is we don't yet have wide testing available so the extent is unknown
My best guess is there are 50 to 100 K people walking around now with it we don't see.
I see 25 to 40 patients a day all day long with respiratory illness some of which may well be covid 19.

As result all we hear are the announcements of the deaths the case reports in states making headlines
etc.

increasing the panic




Crafty_Dog

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #255 on: March 09, 2020, 12:02:31 PM »
The Most Important Coronavirus Question
By: Alex Berezow

The first person to die from coronavirus on American soil passed away on Feb. 29 at a Seattle area hospital – incidentally, the same hospital where my daughter was born just ten and a half months ago.

For epidemiologists, the most important unanswered question about the Wuhan coronavirus, or COVID-19, is the case-fatality rate. But for the general public, the question is much more personal: “Might I – or anyone I love – get sick and die?” When faced with uncertainty, people make decisions cautiously, and they base them on emotion and personal experience instead of statistics. If enough people answer “Yes,” there could be major repercussions as panic sets in around the world. Small behavioral modifications, such as telecommuting or reducing factory activity to avoid spreading the disease, made by millions of people can have a large impact. The United Nations already estimated $50 billion worth of exports worldwide will be affected, excluding non-trade economic activities such as travel tourism, as manufacturing slows and governments impose measures like port restrictions. This is why it is necessary to develop a “risk of death” profile for COVID-19.

The first substantial effort to do just that was published by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Though these numbers should be thought of as preliminary (and perhaps specific to only China), they allow us to begin to comprehend the risk that our global society is facing. After analyzing 44,672 confirmed cases, Chinese health officials estimated the case-fatality rates by age group:
 
(click to enlarge)

Of the 416 children aged 0 to 9 who contracted COVID-19, precisely zero died. This is unusual for most infectious diseases, but not for coronaviruses; the SARS coronavirus outbreak also had minimal impact on children. For patients aged 10 to 39, the case-fatality rate is 0.2 percent. The case-fatality rate doubles for people in their 40s, then triples again for people in their 50s, and nearly triples yet again for people in their 60s. A person who contracts COVID-19 in their 70s has an 8 percent chance of dying, and a person in their 80s a nearly 15 percent chance of dying.

The virus can be lethal in a variety of ways. Viral infections in the lungs can trigger an immune response so strong that it fatally damages the lungs. In others, a systemic immune response, called a “cytokine storm,” can cause multiple organ failure. This could explain why some young, healthy people are killed by the virus, such as Dr. Li Wenliang, the 34-year-old doctor who died shortly after alerting the world to this new strain of coronavirus. An older person’s immune system may not be able to fight a respiratory virus. Underlying conditions such as high blood pressure or diabetes can worsen outcomes.

The above statistics are no doubt frightening numbers. But there are at least three major mitigating factors. First, the number of mild or asymptomatic cases is unknown and probably substantial. Second, China is still a poor country with low-quality health care and, at the epicenter of the outbreak in Hubei province, was overwhelmed by the virus. (The case-fatality rate in Chinese provinces outside Hubei, where hospitals aren’t overloaded, is much lower.) Third, smoking is much more prevalent in China than America, especially among men (52 percent in China versus 16 percent in the U.S.), and smoking is a risk factor for poor responses to respiratory infections. Together, this means the case-fatality rate is likely inflated, and it would be a mistake to apply these figures to the United States or other advanced nations.

The real question, then, is how inflated the case-fatality rates are. At this point, it’s impossible to determine because scientists are still collecting data on how widespread the virus is. But to get a sense of how exaggerated these numbers might be, it is useful to examine the case-fatality rate for seasonal influenza. For the 2018-19 influenza season, the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention provides estimates for the number of cases (defined here as “symptomatic illnesses”) and deaths. From these, we can derive case-fatality rate estimates by age group.
 
(click to enlarge)

If COVID-19 ends up being similar to seasonal influenza, then the case-fatality rates for COVID-19 are inflated by a factor of 20 to 100. Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the U.S. NIAID, co-authored an editorial for the New England Journal of Medicine in which he wrote:

“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively [emphasis added].”

We have reason to believe this view is closest to reality. In South Korea, public health officials screened about 100,000 people and detected over 7,300 cases. So far, the death toll is 50, which translates to a case-fatality rate of 0.7 percent. That’s still seven times worse than seasonal flu, but it’s far lower than the initial reports from China.
 
(click to enlarge)

The Future of COVID-19

Stat News describes two possible scenarios that epidemiologists envision for the future of COVID-19. In the first, COVID-19 becomes just another cold virus, and possibly evolves to become less lethal as well. What we call the “common cold” is actually caused by roughly 200 different viruses. Each year, about 25 percent of common colds are due to four coronaviruses, and some scientists think COVID-19 could eventually join this group as its fifth member. In the second scenario, COVID-19 behaves more like a severe seasonal flu, vanishing in the summer and returning to hit us hard in the winter.

In neither scenario does COVID-19 resemble the Spanish flu of 1918, which disproportionately killed young people. In neither scenario does the virus mutate to become more lethal. Most likely, the opposite will be true. There is an inverse relationship between lethality and contagiousness; that is, the most contagious viruses tend to be less lethal. Evolutionary pressures – namely, the biological imperative to reproduce as far and wide as possible (which means not killing people) – may push COVID-19 down this path.

For now, influenza remains the far bigger global public health threat. Each year, about 1 billion people become infected with seasonal flu, killing some 300,000 to 500,000. This season alone (2019-20), about 20,000 Americans have died from flu, including 136 children. Yet, very few people fear the flu. Society has accepted it as part of reality, and people carry about their daily lives without excessive concern over influenza. This is the likely future for COVID-19.

Until then, perhaps the last word should be given to virologist Dr. Lisa Gralinski, who told The Scientist, “If you’re over fifty or sixty and you have some other health issues and if you’re unlucky enough to be exposed to this virus, it could be very bad.” While everyone else should remain vigilant and take proper precautions (e.g., washing hands and avoiding crowds) until more data comes in, from a scientific perspective the public alarm is disproportionate to the risk.   




G M

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DougMacG

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« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 08:09:47 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Fukk!!!
« Reply #258 on: March 11, 2020, 07:44:07 AM »
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts&feature=share

ccp

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #259 on: March 11, 2020, 09:14:26 AM »
yes

I have been working telemedicine for over 4 yrs now
and the calls coming in for evaluations for covid 19
are rising

especially with VP Pence mentioning telemedicine yesterday at WH with the health care CEOs

I expect we will be swamped soon
we are being asked to do extra hours shifts etc


Crafty_Dog

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #260 on: March 11, 2020, 09:20:41 AM »
Keep us posted!

===================

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2020/03/us-military-scientists-hope-have-coronavirus-therapeutic-summer/163659/?oref=defense_one_breaking_nl

==================================

GPF

Signs of a rebound in China. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday visited Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, for the first time since the epidemic began. This is one of a handful of developments we’ve been watching for from Beijing that would signal it truly thinks it has the outbreak under control – even if Xi didn’t explicitly say as much during his trip. The data coming out of China on the spread of the virus, assuming authorities aren’t somehow hiding legions of unreported cases, gives Beijing ample reason to feel confident that touting its success won’t come back to haunt it. Nearly all the new cases reported outside of Hubei province over the past few days were from people who had contracted the virus while abroad. In Hubei, meanwhile, the drop in new cases has enabled authorities to begin closing down makeshift hospitals and reportedly start considering lifting some restrictions on travel from the province. The data on the Chinese economy will stay extremely ugly for a while to come, especially as the global spread dampens consumption of Chinese exports. But it’ll be much easier to rebound with the virus broadly contained at least at home.

« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 09:23:06 AM by Crafty_Dog »

G M

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #261 on: March 11, 2020, 09:27:06 AM »
Keep us posted!

===================

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2020/03/us-military-scientists-hope-have-coronavirus-therapeutic-summer/163659/?oref=defense_one_breaking_nl

==================================

GPF

Signs of a rebound in China. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday visited Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, for the first time since the epidemic began. This is one of a handful of developments we’ve been watching for from Beijing that would signal it truly thinks it has the outbreak under control – even if Xi didn’t explicitly say as much during his trip. The data coming out of China on the spread of the virus, assuming authorities aren’t somehow hiding legions of unreported cases, gives Beijing ample reason to feel confident that touting its success won’t come back to haunt it. Nearly all the new cases reported outside of Hubei province over the past few days were from people who had contracted the virus while abroad. In Hubei, meanwhile, the drop in new cases has enabled authorities to begin closing down makeshift hospitals and reportedly start considering lifting some restrictions on travel from the province. The data on the Chinese economy will stay extremely ugly for a while to come, especially as the global spread dampens consumption of Chinese exports. But it’ll be much easier to rebound with the virus broadly contained at least at home.

Believe nothing from China.

G M

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Re: Fukk!!!
« Reply #262 on: March 11, 2020, 09:49:13 AM »

ccp

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We don't need to blow this off
« Reply #263 on: March 11, 2020, 04:23:54 PM »
but we don't want panic either:

https://www.thehour.com/business/article/Trump-urged-Mnuchin-to-pressure-Fed-s-Powell-on-15124246.php

stimulate what ?  A dead horse?

pumping like mad
interest rates near zero

enough .

what is going to happen is going to happen
contain the virus
the best we can

many will get ill
few of those will die but will be large number since so many will likely be infected in total

this is playing out like the flu 1918- 19 epidemic

panic closing of everything people walking around with masks
hospitals overwhelmed

and few yrs later we had the roaring twenties.

damn if only I sold out to buy back later
Doug would have told me when to buy back in.

G M

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Re: We don't need to blow this off
« Reply #264 on: March 11, 2020, 07:45:05 PM »
https://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2020/03/welcome-to-party-pal.html

but we don't want panic either:

https://www.thehour.com/business/article/Trump-urged-Mnuchin-to-pressure-Fed-s-Powell-on-15124246.php

stimulate what ?  A dead horse?

pumping like mad
interest rates near zero

enough .

what is going to happen is going to happen
contain the virus
the best we can

many will get ill
few of those will die but will be large number since so many will likely be infected in total

this is playing out like the flu 1918- 19 epidemic

panic closing of everything people walking around with masks
hospitals overwhelmed

and few yrs later we had the roaring twenties.

damn if only I sold out to buy back later
Doug would have told me when to buy back in.


ccp

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Maybe true, but these are Obama boys
« Reply #266 on: March 12, 2020, 05:01:12 AM »
making the claims and fast with the criticism

watching this guy on CNN MSLSD every day bashing Trump.  Just a "non partisan career official":



“They’ve simply lost time they can’t make up. You can’t get back six weeks of blindness,” said Jeremy Konyndyk, who oversaw the international response to Ebola during the Obama administration and is a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development. “To the extent that there’s someone to blame here, the blame is on poor, chaotic management from the White House and failure to acknowledge the big picture.”

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #267 on: March 12, 2020, 08:44:32 AM »
Yeah, I saw that-- but the rest of the article for me simply was a chronicling of how humans organized in government bureaucracies act and interact.  I'm of the impression that our CDC and the related agencies compare quite favorably to elsewhere in the world.

G M

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #268 on: March 12, 2020, 08:49:23 AM »
Yeah, I saw that-- but the rest of the article for me simply was a chronicling of how humans organized in government bureaucracies act and interact.  I'm of the impression that our CDC and the related agencies compare quite favorably to elsewhere in the world.

Our inept government drones are number one!

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #269 on: March 12, 2020, 09:11:08 AM »
What say we?

Congress Can Take the Economic Edge off Covid-19
Give cash assistance to low-income Americans so they don’t feel compelled to go to work sick.
By Michael R. Strain and Scott Gottlieb
March 11, 2020 2:02 pm ET


Covid-19 will soon be an epidemic in the U.S. Large cities need to take emergency measures to protect their residents, especially those who are at greatest risk for hospitalization or death. Congress has an important role to play in supporting states and cities.

President Trump’s announcement on Monday that he would work with legislators on a package to help workers is a step in the right direction. As negotiations begin, what economic policies can Congress pass to help limit the virus’s spread and reduce some of its damage?

The Coronavirus Roils Markets and Washington


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A top priority: shielding the poor from economic distress. Congress should make direct cash payments—mailed checks or direct deposits—to low-income households in places with severe outbreaks. Hourly wage workers should not feel compelled to show up to work sick because they need to pay bills. Congress can help these Americans recover and keep other people healthy by financing their time away from work.

In states experiencing severe outbreaks, Congress should waive the requirement that people receiving unemployment insurance payments look for work. Better that such unemployed workers receive financial assistance for rent, mortgages and groceries than to risk spreading the virus by applying and interviewing for jobs. Congress should also waive work requirements in the food-stamp program.

Children in low-income families will miss subsidized meals if schools are closed. Federal subsidies to those households should be increased to account for lost breakfasts and lunches. This might help relieve some of the pressure on low-income parents, who might otherwise feel the need to go to work even if ill.

Cash-strapped states may be reluctant to divert spending from other priorities toward health care, especially as more people use services. States that experience outbreaks may also lose tax revenue. Congress should increase the share of Medicaid spending financed by the federal government to alleviate the budget pressure.

Last week Mr. Trump signed an $8.3 billion emergency spending bill that will fund the public-health response to this outbreak, including research and development for drugs, vaccines and diagnostic tests to treat the coronavirus and stop its spread. The legislation also includes resources for state and local preparedness and response. This is a welcome development and a substantial amount of money. But if the virus continues to spread, more funding may be needed to expand hospital capacity and help local health departments enforce “social distancing” measures.

This coronavirus may be a once-in-a-generation pathogen that combines lethality with easy transmission. It is deadlier than the seasonal flu, and as contagious if not more so. Many will suffer and die if it is allowed to spread unchecked. Italy’s health-care system is on the brink of collapse. In China, fatalities in Wuhan increased as hospitals were overwhelmed. The U.S. must try to slow the spread so that health resources can be spent on those who most need care.

The bump in federal spending should be temporary and only for states experiencing severe outbreaks. Amid trillion-dollar deficits, the federal government shouldn’t spend more money unless necessary. But the risk to public health from overreacting is much smaller than the risk from an inadequate response. The country is better off spending the money to prevent deaths than spending the money to deal with the aftermath of a lethal epidemic.

More to the point, a severe outbreak could push the economic growth rate close to or below zero. In that event, additional spending to stimulate and support the overall economy—and not only areas experiencing severe outbreaks—may be necessary.

Congress should not wait until the crisis intensifies to enact these measures. These changes should be signed into law immediately, with clear triggers for additional funding. This would allow the changes to be executed before a regional outbreak spirals out of control. States will be in a much better position to plan and to address any outbreak if they know these measures will automatically kick in.

States and localities are the tip of the spear in the fight against coronavirus. Congress can—and should—give them weapons to battle the disease.

Mr. Strain is director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, Dr. Gottlieb is a resident fellow at AEI and a partner at New Enterprise Associates. He was commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, 2017-19.

==============================

Dodd-Frank Worsens Covid’s Risk
The Fed, FDIC and Treasury need the same powers they wielded against the 2008 crisis.
By Hal Scott
March 11, 2020 7:01 pm ET
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PHOTO: CHAD CROWE
Coronavirus is contagious. So is financial panic.

The spread of the novel coronavirus could cause a run on the financial system leading to a deep recession. Severe stock-market drops and increased demand for liquidity are warning signals. Bank equity capital has increased by $750 billion to $2.1 trillion since 2007, but a panic could still overwhelm well-capitalized banks. We need to restore the weapons to fight contagion that Congress took away during the last financial crisis. Strong pre-emptive action would greatly diminish the risk of a panic.

The previous systemic threat to the financial system was spurred by the failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008. That threat came from within the banking system in the form of bad housing loans. This time is different. Wall Street risk-taking isn’t to blame for the coronavirus.

The Coronavirus Roils Markets and Washington


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In 2008 the Fed supplied needed liquidity to the banking and nonbanking financial sector, the latter through its authority under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. Meanwhile, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. expanded the limits of deposit insurance, among other things providing unlimited protection for transaction accounts. The Treasury Department offered guarantees to money-market funds.

Once the crisis abated, however, there was growing public concern about “moral hazard”—that government backstops and guarantees created incentives for risky behavior. In response, the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 limited the Fed’s lender-of-last-resort powers for nonbanks, an increasingly important part of the financial system. Fed loans to nonbanks can now be made only with the approval of the Treasury secretary. They must be done through a broad program, unlike the one-off rescue of AIG, and must meet heightened collateral requirements. Loans to nonbanks must be disclosed to congressional leaders within seven days and to the public within one year. Loans to banks must be disclosed within two years. While disclosure is usually desirable, in this situation it creates the specter of future stigma that deters financial institutions from seeking even badly needed Fed funding. Even before the current crisis, banks’ use of the discount window had dropped to record lows.

Dodd-Frank also prevents the FDIC from expanding guarantees to bank depositors without congressional approval, as it did in the credit crisis. And the Treasury is now prohibited from guaranteeing money-market funds. These legislative changes make it difficult for the Fed and other regulators to deal effectively with a financial panic.

Government agencies have compounded the problem of their own weakness with regulations that make it harder for financial firms to lend to each other. The liquidity coverage ratio, the Fed liquidity stress tests, and the “living wills” process require the largest banks to meet stiff liquidity requirements that can result in liquidity hoarding.

Even before the coronavirus sent markets tumbling, the scarcity of liquidity was a big problem. The 9% spike of overnight repurchase agreement, or repo, rates last September caused the Fed to supply as much as $75 billion a day to the repo market. Although the demand for such support had fallen to about $26 billion by the end of February, it rose to $100 billion on March 4. The Fed responded Monday by raising the minimum support offered to $150 from $100 billion. While this change is welcome, it falls short.

Here’s what should be done immediately: First, the Fed should reactivate all the facilities it created in the crisis and any additional ones it believes necessary, so it is ready to be the strongest possible lender of last resort—to do whatever it takes, consistent with its present legal authority. This includes making U.S. dollars available to other major central banks through currency swaps. And the Treasury secretary should announce his approval of these efforts, consistent with the requirements of Section 13(3). Second, financial regulators should modify their rules and supervision to stimulate liquidity in the interbank and repo markets. Third, Congress should restore all the powers it took away from the Fed, FDIC and Treasury during the crisis. Fourth, international coordination through the Group of 20 must be accelerated. This is a global problem.

China, Europe and Japan already have many of these powers. Policy makers in the U.S. need them too. Bold action can prevent a panic before it starts. The public knows the situation is serious and wants the government to act.

Mr. Scott is an emeritus professor at Harvard Law School and the director of the Committee on Capital Markets Regulation.

« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 09:13:20 AM by Crafty_Dog »

G M

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #270 on: March 12, 2020, 09:13:53 AM »
Sure, why not? It totally won't be abused!

What say we?

Congress Can Take the Economic Edge off Covid-19
Give cash assistance to low-income Americans so they don’t feel compelled to go to work sick.
By Michael R. Strain and Scott Gottlieb
March 11, 2020 2:02 pm ET
SAVE
PRINT
TEXT
190

A sign calling for affordable Covid-19 drugs in Washington, March 5.
PHOTO: SARAH SILBIGER/BLOOMBERG NEWS
Covid-19 will soon be an epidemic in the U.S. Large cities need to take emergency measures to protect their residents, especially those who are at greatest risk for hospitalization or death. Congress has an important role to play in supporting states and cities.

President Trump’s announcement on Monday that he would work with legislators on a package to help workers is a step in the right direction. As negotiations begin, what economic policies can Congress pass to help limit the virus’s spread and reduce some of its damage?

The Coronavirus Roils Markets and Washington


SUBSCRIBE
A top priority: shielding the poor from economic distress. Congress should make direct cash payments—mailed checks or direct deposits—to low-income households in places with severe outbreaks. Hourly wage workers should not feel compelled to show up to work sick because they need to pay bills. Congress can help these Americans recover and keep other people healthy by financing their time away from work.

In states experiencing severe outbreaks, Congress should waive the requirement that people receiving unemployment insurance payments look for work. Better that such unemployed workers receive financial assistance for rent, mortgages and groceries than to risk spreading the virus by applying and interviewing for jobs. Congress should also waive work requirements in the food-stamp program.

Children in low-income families will miss subsidized meals if schools are closed. Federal subsidies to those households should be increased to account for lost breakfasts and lunches. This might help relieve some of the pressure on low-income parents, who might otherwise feel the need to go to work even if ill.

Cash-strapped states may be reluctant to divert spending from other priorities toward health care, especially as more people use services. States that experience outbreaks may also lose tax revenue. Congress should increase the share of Medicaid spending financed by the federal government to alleviate the budget pressure.

Last week Mr. Trump signed an $8.3 billion emergency spending bill that will fund the public-health response to this outbreak, including research and development for drugs, vaccines and diagnostic tests to treat the coronavirus and stop its spread. The legislation also includes resources for state and local preparedness and response. This is a welcome development and a substantial amount of money. But if the virus continues to spread, more funding may be needed to expand hospital capacity and help local health departments enforce “social distancing” measures.

This coronavirus may be a once-in-a-generation pathogen that combines lethality with easy transmission. It is deadlier than the seasonal flu, and as contagious if not more so. Many will suffer and die if it is allowed to spread unchecked. Italy’s health-care system is on the brink of collapse. In China, fatalities in Wuhan increased as hospitals were overwhelmed. The U.S. must try to slow the spread so that health resources can be spent on those who most need care.

The bump in federal spending should be temporary and only for states experiencing severe outbreaks. Amid trillion-dollar deficits, the federal government shouldn’t spend more money unless necessary. But the risk to public health from overreacting is much smaller than the risk from an inadequate response. The country is better off spending the money to prevent deaths than spending the money to deal with the aftermath of a lethal epidemic.

More to the point, a severe outbreak could push the economic growth rate close to or below zero. In that event, additional spending to stimulate and support the overall economy—and not only areas experiencing severe outbreaks—may be necessary.

Congress should not wait until the crisis intensifies to enact these measures. These changes should be signed into law immediately, with clear triggers for additional funding. This would allow the changes to be executed before a regional outbreak spirals out of control. States will be in a much better position to plan and to address any outbreak if they know these measures will automatically kick in.

States and localities are the tip of the spear in the fight against coronavirus. Congress can—and should—give them weapons to battle the disease.

Mr. Strain is director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, Dr. Gottlieb is a resident fellow at AEI and a partner at New Enterprise Associates. He was commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, 2017-19.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #271 on: March 12, 2020, 09:51:34 AM »
"Like the common flu, except the death rate from the virus may be ten times higher. Like the common flu, except the U.S. population has no built-up immunity, so the virus left unchecked could infect a significantly higher share of the population at a faster rate, overwhelming the medical system."




The Virus and Leadership
Trump’s main opponent isn’t Joe Biden. It’s the coronavirus.
By The Editorial Board
March 11, 2020 7:27 pm ET


When President Trump sees a political threat, his instinct is to deny, double down and hit back. That has often been politically effective, but in the case of the novel coronavirus it has undermined his ability to lead.

It’s not accurate, as the press reported last week, that the President called the virus a “hoax.” He said the criticisms of his Administration were a hoax. Yet his public remarks too often continue to give the impression that he views the virus more as another chance for political combat than as a serious public-health problem.


White House advisers last week said the virus is being “contained” despite contrary evidence. On Monday, after suggesting “fake news” was driving the stock-market rout, the President tweeted: “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”

Like the common flu, except the death rate from the virus may be ten times higher. Like the common flu, except the U.S. population has no built-up immunity, so the virus left unchecked could infect a significantly higher share of the population at a faster rate, overwhelming the medical system.

We hope the dire coronavirus prognostications turn out not to pass, and no one knows how the coming months will play out. Yet with stock markets falling, schools canceling classes, companies emptying their offices, and nations locking down borders and some cities, Americans want steady leadership.

The biggest failure so far has been on testing when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention produced contaminated test kits and the Food and Drug Administration was slow to approve private alternatives. The best response to that is to acknowledge the delay, explain what happened, and relate when and how the problem will be addressed. The mistake is to claim there was no problem.

Mr. Trump is right that his opponents, in politics and the media, want to turn the virus into his Hurricane Katrina. That is inevitable and he shouldn’t take their bait. The best defense isn’t to strike back as if the virus is Adam Schiff. It can’t be mocked with a nickname or dismissed with over-optimistic assertions that risk being run over by reality in a week or a month. On Wednesday Mr. Trump punched back at an article in Vanity Fair by tweeting: “Our team is doing a great job with CoronaVirus!” Who cares about Vanity Fair?

The best reply is cool and realistic leadership that marshals the strengths of the government a President leads. This means letting the experts speak, not putting himself in the front of every briefing and speculating about things he doesn’t know much about. It means showing personal support, ideally at some point in person, for virus patients and their front-line caregivers.

Leadership means putting together a response to economic weakness and what can be done to help those who lose their jobs, not promising something he can’t deliver on Capitol Hill or blasting the Federal Reserve for the 100th time. Above all, leadership in a crisis means telling the public the truth, lest people begin to tune him out or, worse, make him a figure of mockery.

Disasters and crises can make or break presidencies—not from the event itself but from how the public judges a President’s response. In the last week the Administration’s performance has improved, and his speech to the nation Wednesday night was at least a step toward more realism. But the pandemic continues to build and he still understated the scope of the health risk. Travel bans are less important than mitigation efforts at home with thousands of likely cases already here. Comparing the U.S. favorably to Europe won’t reassure anyone if the U.S. catches up.

Mr. Trump did seem to recognize that the threat to public health is a chance to rise above narrow partisanship and speak for the whole country. His main opponent for re-election now isn’t Joe Biden. It’s the coronavirus.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 09:57:37 AM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #272 on: March 12, 2020, 09:56:55 AM »
Virus Relief, Good and Bad
The goal is to relieve hardship, not expand the welfare state.
By The Editorial Board
Updated March 11, 2020 10:16 pm ET
The coronavirus has had the bad judgment to arrive in an election year, so Congress will inevitably respond with what it does best—spend money. As the ideas spill out, it’s worth laying out some principles to sort the good from the bad and the ugly.
• Target the real hardship. Americans who need the most help will be those who lose their jobs because they or their family members are sick, especially low-income workers who are paid hourly rather than by salary. Federal grants could help make up for lost wages, sick leave, or special health-care costs.
The precedents here are unemployment insurance and disaster relief. The former is targeted at individuals who had been working and lose their jobs, and both programs are limited. Jobless benefits expire after a time, with a goal of encouraging recipients to get back into the job market when the economy improves.
Disaster relief addresses the immediate harm to personal property and businesses, and recipients have to meet certain criteria to qualify. Relief can be in the form of grants or loans, especially to small business. Congress recently passed $1 billion in small-business loan subsidies as part of its $8.3 billion virus relief package, and on Wednesday night President Trump asked for another $50 billion more that we hope has virus-damage requirements attached.
• Make the relief immediate. People who lose their jobs or are sick need the money now, not months down the road. One problem, among many, with the Obama 2009 stimulus program is that its spending was spread over years. So-called shovel-ready projects weren’t close to ready. The worst idea we’ve heard in response to the coronavirus is for a big new public-works bill. In other words, to address an epidemic today, the solution is to build more roads in 2021 and 2022.
• Target individuals, not bureaucracies. The further away from people the money goes, the less good it will do. Senate Democrats on Wednesday floated a kitchen-sink virus bill loaded with money for every pet program going back to the Great Society. One chestnut is “supplemental financial assistance directly to housing authorities”—that is, the folks at the New York City Housing Authority who spend $1,973 per apartment to install new lighting. Their tenants may need a check if they lose their job, but why reward the housing bureaucrats?
• Avoid new mandates on business. Progressives will try to use this crisis to require employers to provide mandatory paid sick leave to all employees. The idea will be to start at seven days, and claim it’s temporary, but once in place the mandate will never go away. Soon it will be 90 days, raising the cost of hiring. If Democrats want to pay for virus sick leave, have Uncle Sam write the checks.
• Beware new or expanded entitlements disguised as emergency relief. Senate Democrats want to expand “benefit levels” for food stamps, as you’d expect. But they also want “new pandemic SNAP authority” to provide additional food assistance for public-health emergencies. This looks suspiciously like an increase in food-stamp eligibility that wouldn’t go away when the health-crisis does.
Congress may also try to expand eligibility for Medicaid, or increase the federal share of payments in the state-federal program. But the heavy federal share, which can be as high as 90% for some recipients, already increases the incentive for states to enroll more able-bodied adults at the expense of the needy. If the states need money for virus-related health relief, write them a check based on the number of state cases and let them decide how to spend it.
***
We’ll have more to say in the future about tax cuts and proposals to bail out industries. Our larger point today is that government’s role in this crisis should be to address a genuine short-term hardship, not to permanently expand the size of government and the burden on taxpayers. These spending ideas won’t provide much of an economic stimulus, though they might help consumer confidence. They should end when the virus threat does.


ccp

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« Last Edit: July 05, 2021, 07:39:42 PM by Crafty_Dog »

G M

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Fauci admits failure to have testing capability
« Reply #275 on: March 12, 2020, 03:46:56 PM »
ccp,

Next time at the hospital, figure out how much of your disposable medical equipment is made in China, and how much resupply is readily available. Expect you are 2 to 4 weeks away from where Italy is now.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/it-failing-let-s-admit-it-fauci-says-coronavirus-testing-n1157036
« Last Edit: July 05, 2021, 07:36:08 PM by Crafty_Dog »

ccp

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #276 on: March 12, 2020, 04:26:02 PM »
"
Next time at the hospital, figure out how much of your disposable medical equipment is made in China, and how much resupply is readily available. Expect you are 2 to 4 weeks away from where Italy is now."

but Bloomberg and the rest of the globalists have told us this was all good.

tariffs to try to bring manufacturing home are all bad........


Let me get this straight.  our American generic pharm send the manufacturing overseas so the drugs are made as cheap as possible then sent back here we get billed the highest in the world for same drugs. ...........


ccp

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drive thru testing beginning
« Reply #277 on: March 12, 2020, 06:19:33 PM »
Denver with first drive through testing site

need doctor's note

we just got the notes ready to get to patients who after assessment qualify

NYC (Mario's kid running for 2024)  is planning on doing same
hopefully other locations will have
and this will sure make my job easier.


G M

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If it is on the internet, it has to be true!
« Reply #278 on: March 12, 2020, 08:33:44 PM »
https://ncrenegade.com/editorial/psa-concerning-possible-government-action/

Still, something to consider as we only have X number of shopping days until TEOTWAWKI.

G M

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ccp

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CDC FDA response ?
« Reply #280 on: March 13, 2020, 05:11:27 AM »
This twit at the NYT of course describing the CDC sarcastically as storied and of course laying the blame on Trump in effort to get senile corrupt Joe elected :

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/opinion/trump-corona-cdc.html

politics aside
the testing was the biggest issue
Look at all the times CDC did protect us from all the past threats
   We did not appreciate all they did for us.

Question :  should we be manufacturing test kits every time there is outbreak around the. world
by the millions when indeed most of the time they won't be needed?

MAybe FDA restrictions too stringent?
DOn't know.

OTOH do we really want the schysters who sell unneeded vitamins on the radio and everywhere else getting into the testing business?





ccp

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Newsom
« Reply #282 on: March 13, 2020, 07:59:59 AM »
I see casinos exempt.

no risk there.

Gee how did that happen?


G M

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Re: Newsom
« Reply #284 on: March 13, 2020, 08:10:53 AM »
I see casinos exempt.

no risk there.

Gee how did that happen?

Casinos are sterile environments! Just ask the Las Vegas Mayor.

ccp

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Brazilian President test positve
« Reply #285 on: March 13, 2020, 08:26:59 AM »
Based on this President Trump should be quarantined for 14 d post exposure

and if gets symptoms THEN get tested

like all the other celebrities he will be tested right away

of course he should be very closely tested etc
but Charlie Barkley?

Just saw patient from Florida who was at rally in Miami for Bolsonaro and gave him a hug
I advised she must remain quarantined since one of his ministers was positive

until the President and the 3 ministers , whose status was unknown as of yesterday test negative

just called pt back - she was aware of this headline and is staying in - advice is to get tested if becomes symptoms

does not really make sense to test now as positive test will not change her quarantine status

and may be a false negative

either way if she gets symptoms she will then need to go in for health evaluation or if severe go to the ER calling ahead
to let them know of her coming in and wear a face mask




ccp

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #288 on: March 13, 2020, 09:06:29 AM »
military barracks traditionally also .

though I would think military would have more options.

DougMacG

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #289 on: March 13, 2020, 09:07:02 AM »
This doesn't sound good, but I am paywalled from seeing it.  Could someone paste it please?

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-03-13/trump-administration-blocks-states-use-medicaid-respond-coronavirus-crisis?utm_source=Today%27s+Headlines&utm_campaign=ce1d0cf6e0-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_03_13_11_53&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b04355194f-ce1d0cf6e0-80108809

L.A. Unified will close effective Monday due to coronavirus concerns

POLITICS
Trump administration blocks states from using Medicaid to respond to coronavirus crisis
Donald Trump, Seema Verma
Seema Verma, head of the government’s Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in a meeting with President Trump in 2017.(Evan Vucci / Associated Press)
By NOAM N. LEVEY
STAFF WRITER
MARCH 13, 2020
6:30 AM

WASHINGTON —  Despite mounting pleas from California and other states, the Trump administration isn’t allowing states to use Medicaid more freely to respond to the coronavirus crisis by expanding medical services.
In previous emergencies, including the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Hurricane Katrina and the H1N1 flu outbreak, both Republican and Democratic administrations loosened Medicaid rules to empower states to meet surging needs.

But months into the current global disease outbreak, the White House and senior federal health officials haven’t taken the necessary steps to give states simple pathways to fully leverage the mammoth safety net program to prevent a wider epidemic.

That’s making it harder for states to quickly sign up poor patients for coverage so they can get necessary testing or treatment if they are exposed to coronavirus.

And it threatens to slow efforts by states to bring on new medical providers, set up emergency clinics or begin quarantining and caring for homeless Americans at high risk from the virus.

“If they wanted to do it, they could do it,” said Cindy Mann, who oversaw the Medicaid program in the Obama administration and worked with states to help respond to the H1N1 crisis in 2009.

One reason federal health officials have not acted appears to be President Trump’s reluctance to declare a national emergency. That’s a key step that would clear the way for states to get Medicaid waivers to more nimbly tackle coronavirus, but it would conflict with Trump’s repeated efforts to downplay the seriousness of the epidemic.

Qiagen Markets QIAstat-Dx For Coronavirus Testing
CALIFORNIA
Problems mount with coronavirus testing, limiting access and sowing confusion
March 12, 2020
Another element may be ideological: The administration official who oversees Medicaid, Seema Verma, head of the government’s Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, has been a champion of efforts by conservative states to trim the number of people enrolled in Medicaid.

The steps that California, Washington and other states hit hard by the epidemic want to take would likely increase the number of people enrolled in the program.

“Medicaid could be the nation’s biggest public health responder, but it’s such an object of ire in this administration,” said Sara Rosenbaum, a Medicaid expert at George Washington University. “Their ideology is clouding their response to a crisis.”

In response to questions about how her agency, known as CMS, is handling state concerns, Verma’s office noted that the agency is trying to assist states, providing answers to frequently asked questions and hosting nationwide calls with state health officials. The agency noted that some waivers are not possible because Trump hasn’t declared a national emergency.

“Waivers cannot be invoked until and unless there is a Presidential Stafford Act declaration,” the agency noted, saying that it was “prepared to exercise that authority should it become available.”

Medicaid, the half-century-old government safety net program, and the related Children’s Health Insurance Program provide health insurance to more than 70 million low-income Americans, many of whom gained coverage through the 2010 Affordable Care Act.

To control fraud, the program has extensive rules dictating who is eligible and what kinds of medical services can be covered; federal officials can penalize states that don’t scrutinize who receives benefits.

During major disasters, CMS has traditionally loosened these rules.

In 2005, for example, two weeks after Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans, the administration of President George W. Bush told states that it would grant waivers so they could rapidly enroll people into Medicaid who had been displaced by the storm.

This meant simplified applications for enrollees and no requirement that states verify applicants’ income or other information to grant coverage.

Similarly, in 2009, after President Obama declared a national emergency in response to H1N1, Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius invited states to seek waivers from Medicaid rules to make it easier for medical providers to quickly treat patients without worrying about their eligibility for government assistance.

States need similar flexibility now, said Jacey Cooper, who directs Medi-Cal, as California’s mammoth Medicaid program is called.

“Getting an emergency declaration would really help us get services to people who need it,” said Cooper. Medi-Cal currently covers about 13 million low-income Californians.

Among other things, Cooper said the state wants to shorten lengthy verification procedures to quickly enroll people. Public health experts fear that gaps in insurance coverage make controlling coronavirus more difficult because patients who don’t have insurance won’t seek medical attention and testing they fear they can’t afford.

California and other states also want to ensure that mobile clinics and other temporary facilities set up to handle a crush of patients can bill Medicaid, which also would require a waiver.

And a number of states with large homeless populations — including California, Washington and New York — are interested in potentially using Medicaid funding to help homeless victims of coronavirus who need not only medical care but also housing and other services.

The easiest way to speed Medicaid waivers is a declaration from the president of a national emergency. Obama issued such a declaration in 2009 during the H1N1 outbreak.

On Thursday, the American Medical Assn., the American Hospital Assn. and the American Nurses Assn. sent a joint letter to Vice President Mike Pence calling for the president to issue a declaration.

But the White House hasn’t indicated whether Trump will make such a move.

State leaders are wary of criticizing the president directly, fearing that he may attack them personally or retaliate against their states.

Last week, Trump called Washington Gov. Jay Inslee a “snake” after the governor, a Democrat, criticized the administration’s slow coronavirus response.

That’s left states with a more limited set of Medicaid options that CMS outlined Thursday afternoon. These include small steps such as allowing hospitals to more easily enroll patients in Medicaid.

In California, Cooper said CMS officials have been helping the state develop a plan. But she noted California needs significantly more flexibility.

For example, state health officials do not want to have to send people to hospitals to get rapidly enrolled in Medi-Cal, potentially exposing them to the virus.

“We need help sooner rather than later,” Cooper said.

Noam N. Levey writes about national healthcare policy out of Washington, D.C., for the Los Angeles Times. He covered passage of the 2010 Affordable Care Act and has written extensively about the landmark law and reported on its implementation from around the country. A former investigative and political reporter, he is a Boston native and a graduate of Princeton University. He joined the newspaper in 2003 and has reported from Washington since 2006
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Copyright © 2020, Los Angeles Times
« Last Edit: March 13, 2020, 09:26:55 AM by DougMacG »


ccp

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WH press conference
« Reply #291 on: March 13, 2020, 02:31:50 PM »
For me DJT was at his finest!

It was a great sight to see America stepping up to the plate!

Of course Pelooooosi had to have her own speech

      in which she is saving "the families".

(wait, since when have the crats been for families ....... they have destroyed them )


Crafty_Dog

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Reasons to be positive
« Reply #292 on: March 13, 2020, 04:22:36 PM »
Reasons to Be Positive About the US Coronavirus Fight

Less than a month ago markets were at a record high, as healthy data on the US economy signaled continued growth on the horizon. Then, as Coronavirus made its way to continental Europe and the United States, markets went into a tailspin, suffering one of the fastest declines on record. The last several weeks have been characterized by extreme volatility as investors try to make heads or tails of the situation. Coverage around the virus has been almost exclusively negative, as experts extrapolate worst case scenarios to spur action. It should come as little surprise then, that fear of a recession has moved to the forefront of many minds. At times like these, we think it's crucial to look at the data and note some positive developments that aren't getting as much media coverage.

Testing Capacity is About to Rise Substantially: The initial government response to Coronavirus has been extremely disappointing. The first round of test kits sent out by the CDC were faulty, requiring a recall and costing precious time in the fight to find/quarantine those infected. Further slowing action, only the CDC was allowed to do tests at its own facilities, limiting testing capacity. Now, things are beginning to change. Many private labs have now been approved to conduct tests, and the FDA has announced that not only will high-volume testing be allowed, but that emergency approval has been given for an automated Coronavirus test that is estimated to speed up the testing process 10-fold. So not only are tests becoming more available, results will come quicker as well. Identify and contain, the proven method to-date, can be rolled out at the national level.

A Wave of Recoveries on the Horizon: The number of official infections in the United States has continued to rise at an accelerated pace over recent weeks. Meanwhile, our preferred measure of active cases (total cases minus deaths and recoveries, which gives a better picture of the number of people who are able to spread the virus further) has continued to rise consistently as well. As so often occurs during virus outbreaks, fears arise that the early pace of spread will continue, unabated, at an exponential rate. History – including the experiences of both China and South Korea with Coronavirus – shows identification and treatment leads to a slowdown in the pace of new cases, and a pickup in recoveries. Typically, it takes roughly two weeks for otherwise healthy individuals who test positive to get better and be officially moved from the "active" to the "recovered" counts. Now that we are about two weeks out from the initial surge in US cases, recoveries should begin to rise consistently. The world recovery rate currently sits at 93% right now, while in the US it is only 43%. We expect the US to move toward and then exceed the world recovery rate in the weeks ahead.

The Private US Healthcare Industry is the Best in the World: One of the biggest things overlooked (and underappreciated) in the fallout from the Coronavirus is just how fast the private US healthcare industry has responded. Moderna has already begun testing a vaccine, and many other companies have followed suit with their own treatments. Meanwhile, doctors have begun using the experimental anti-viral drug Remdesivir to treat US Coronavirus patients, with positive results. The speed with which these discoveries have been made is absolutely breathtaking, imagine how long it would take to develop effective treatments for a never-before-seen illness 50 years ago! Meanwhile, a 2013 study by the Department of Health and Human Services determined that the US has the most Intensive Care Unit beds per capita of any country at 20-32 per 100,000 people. This is far higher than China where there are only 2.8-4.6, demonstrating why they needed to build hospitals overnight. Likewise, the US far outdoes countries with socialized medical systems like Canada (13.5), Sweden (5.8-8.7), or the UK (3.5-7.4). This means the US is better suited to deal with the healthcare capacity issues that could arise with a Pandemic than virtually any other country in the world.

Put it all together, and the US is well poised to not only win its own fight against the Coronavirus, but also to export treatments that should help the rest of the world. The coming weeks will be critical as tests go out en masse and we learn more about the fight we are up against, but we are up to the task. Panic is never permanent, and as the virus response ramps up, sentiment will turn higher as well. Every day we learn more. Every day we make progress. This too shall pass.

Brian S. Wesbury - Chief Economist
Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist                                                                                                                   

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Chinese virology lab just happens to be Wuhan
« Reply #296 on: March 14, 2020, 11:00:35 AM »
definite amazing coincidence.

of course the Left is only concerned about xenophobia

perhaps we call the Left something like "identity politics phobics"

EVERYTHING is seen placed in category of identity politics to stir up their me too crowds

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #299 on: March 14, 2020, 01:38:19 PM »
https://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/958328/18

see my reply #250
of course that was last week....
but glad to see experts at Johns Hopkins are reading this threat on Dog Brothers