Author Topic: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc  (Read 138619 times)

G M

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #1100 on: July 16, 2021, 09:40:42 AM »
"What is the lesson going forward from Covid-19?   If we sit still, the lesson will stand that the constitution is provisional and that one or two scientists can shut down the country and the world and put us all under martial law for any or no reason at all at any time."

That's their plan.

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: The Reassuring Data on the Delta Variant
« Reply #1101 on: July 16, 2021, 03:02:49 PM »
A) Hoping that the posts I made earlier today will get a careful assessment here.

B)

The Reassuring Data on the Delta Variant
There’s no sign of a surge in hospitalization or severe illness, and the vaccines remain extremely effective.
By Leslie Bienen and Monica Gandhi
July 15, 2021 6:05 pm ET


You read the same alarming headlines every few months, now with Greek letters. As the virus that causes Covid-19 evolves and mutates, the same concerns pop up about whether the variant evades vaccines, makes people sicker than the old versions, and increases transmissibility. What we know about the Delta variant is reassuring.

One of the most important questions is whether vaccines are still working well. The best way to answer that is to look at the number of vaccinated people getting serious Covid-19 symptoms or being hospitalized. A new study from the U.K. found that vaccines are still incredibly effective at preventing serious illness with the Delta variant circulating. The Pfizer vaccine was 96% effective after two doses at preventing hospitalization, meaning the average unvaccinated person in the study was more than 25 times as likely to be hospitalized with Covid as the average vaccinated one. (This almost certainly understates the protectiveness of the vaccine, as the vaccinated cohort was older and had a higher incidence of pre-existing conditions than the unvaccinated one.) The Johnson & Johnson vaccine produces strong neutralizing antibodies and cellular responses against the Delta variant, still present eight months after administration.

Studies from Canada and the U.K. show 79% to 87% effectiveness against symptomatic infection with the Delta variant. On July 8 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration asserted their confidence in the vaccines. They jointly announced that no boosters are necessary at this time.

This is all excellent news, as is the finding that 99% of hospitalizations for Covid-19 are among unvaccinated people. The vaccines are as good as first heralded, even against new variants. That unvaccinated people are still being hospitalized underscores the continuing need to get as many people vaccinated as possible. That will also protect children under 12, who aren’t eligible for vaccines. Cases in kids have fallen in places with high vaccination rates among adults and adolescents.


The human immune system truly is more clever and flexible than most people realize. Vaccines generate memory B cells that allow them to produce adapted antibodies toward a range of variants should they ever encounter them. Data from the La Jolla Immunology Institute and the University of California, San Francisco show that T-cell responses provoked by the vaccines are strong against known variants. If you choose a two-shot regimen such as Pfizer or Moderna, getting both shots is still important, as the booster may be necessary to recognize a range of variants.

A second question is whether a particular variant is making infected people sicker. This question is answered fairly easily by looking at publicly available data from the CDC and comparing hospitalizations per case, particularly in regions where a new variant is more common. We analyzed these CDC data and found that the hospitalization data support none of the alarming headlines suggesting Delta is more dangerous than earlier strains.


Hospitalization data are a key to understanding the overall risk for two reasons. They tell us whether healthcare systems are overwhelmed, and they predict deaths with high reliability. Positivity data are less reliable, especially the relationship between infection and hospitalizations becomes weaker in highly vaccinated countries like the U.S. We conducted similar analyses in April, when headlines were raging that the U.K. variant, now called Alpha, was driving surges in kids. We found that it wasn’t, and that juvenile hospitalizations weren’t rising in places with a high prevalence of the Alpha variant.

In the U.S. overall, hospitalizations fell consistently from their daily peak in early January of 133,214 to an average of about 12,000 in late June and early July. In the past few weeks, however, hospitalizations bottomed out and are rising in places with low rates of vaccination and low levels of natural immunity. Hospitalizations in children have been consistently low since the first domestic Covid-19 case was found in February 2020, and they haven’t increased since Delta emerged.

U.S. hospitalization data also show not only that higher Delta prevalence doesn’t go hand in hand with higher hospitalization rates; these numbers appear inversely correlated—that is, places that had higher percentages of the Delta variant had lower ratios of hospitalized people to Covid cases. Whatever else we know or don’t know about Delta, its prevalence clearly isn’t driving hospitalizations. When we look at current hospitalization data across the country, the most striking predictive pattern is that a high vaccination rate in a region accurately predicts a lower hospitalization rate.

The hardest question to answer is transmissibility, because it isn’t possible to conduct controlled trials comparing how many people get infected with a particular variant. Using data about prevalence of a given variant as a proxy for transmissibility is an unsound approach, because evolutionarily fitter versions of Covid-19 will swamp other versions and outreplicate them. They may well be more infectious or they may only be better at reproducing themselves in an infected person’s body—we have no reliable way of knowing. The effect is the same: Delta is well on its way to becoming the dominant strain in the U.S.


So far, as we march through the variant alphabet, none of the predicted doomsday scenarios in virulence or vaccine resistance have come to pass. If that changes with a future variant, we will know quickly, because data on hospitalizations are readily available. Anyone can go to the CDC website or the state health department and see whether hospitalizations are rising.

“In baseball you don’t know nothing,” Yogi Berra observed. But we need to stop acting as if we know nothing about Covid-19. Every variant that has come along has produced unwarranted panic. We have to work harder to get people vaccinated, given that almost every American death from Covid-19 is tragically preventable, that world-wide vaccination is paramount to tamp down transmission and stop future variants, and that saving lives everywhere is the right thing to do.

Dr. Bienen is a public-health researcher at Oregon Health and Science University-Portland State University School of Public Health. Dr. Gandhi is an infectious-disease physician and professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco. Eric Happel contributed to this article.

G M

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G M

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Panic Pandemic
« Reply #1103 on: July 18, 2021, 03:48:51 PM »

DougMacG

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"If Donald Trump says we should take it [covid vaccine], I'm not takin' it."
« Reply #1104 on: July 19, 2021, 10:18:58 AM »
I took mine but how come some people don't trust the vaccines:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1416094954603044864

One minute video, Biden and Harris express more doubt than any elected Republican I have seen.

"...the American people should not have confidence in it."  Candidate Joe Biden

"If Donald Trump says we should take it, I'm not takin' it."  Candidate Kamala Harris

These statements don't matter because ...

Much more at this link:  https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/07/why-do-some-mistrust-the-vaccines.php

« Last Edit: July 19, 2021, 10:21:29 AM by DougMacG »

G M

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ccp

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Rand vs Fauci
« Reply #1109 on: July 20, 2021, 02:29:15 PM »
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/07/20/rand-paul-and-anthony-fauci-clash-on-nih-funding-in-wuhan-it-is-a-crime-to-lie-to-congress/

Fauci
  very deviously clever
  if you ask me.

But we are stuck with him as long as Dems in power.

DougMacG

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Re: Get the experimental gene therapy or else!
« Reply #1110 on: July 20, 2021, 05:06:01 PM »
"This tweet is misleading.  Learn more about how vaccines work."


People should post pre-warnings about big tech warnings:

"Twitter is part of a Big Tech propaganda mission to quash opinions not in line with their own. 
See twitter warning that follows.
Click here to see our same content expressed freely without bullsh*t warnings from Orwellian censors like Twitter."

Crafty_Dog

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Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Wuhan Virus will always be with us.
« Reply #1112 on: July 21, 2021, 06:12:21 AM »
The difficulty of the news business is that you’re constantly trying to tell people their information is outmoded, which they resist since assimilating new information entails a cost. And yet here goes:

If you haven’t had Covid yet, you will. If you’ve had it once, you’ll have it again. If you’re vaccinated or were infected previously—which will one day be most people except the very young—your symptoms will likely be mild or nonexistent, but it’s not guaranteed. Words the CDC says about the flu it will say about Covid: “Vaccination is especially important for people 65 years and older because they are at high risk of developing serious complications from flu. Flu vaccines are updated each season as needed to keep up with changing viruses.”

Nobody is surprised when they get the flu for the second, the third, the eighth time in their lives. This is what epidemiologists meant when, for the last 15 months, they said the new coronavirus was likely to evolve and become endemic.

Which brings us again to the question of vaccine hesitancy. Media types have been worshiping a Kaiser Family Foundation survey that finds 86% of Democrats and only 52% of Republicans are vaccinated.


But all the problems of polling apply: fewer and increasingly unrepresentative are those of us who even bother to answer our phones; we’re cagey on partisan questions. The numbers also seem disproportionate to every correlate: Rural vs. urban. Young vs. old. Black vs. white. Kaiser says it aims for an error of plus or minus 3 percentage points; on party identification it achieved an error of 6 to 7 points.

Never mind. The media ecstatically embrace an anecdote about CPAC idiots cheering when the Biden administration “fails” at anything, even vaccine promotion. Remember when Kamala Harris thought it clever to encourage distrust of the “Trump” vaccine? Realism should teach us to make allowance for a trait common among our least-gifted politicians: the inability to access their own thoughts on any subject in their blind groping for the talking point du jour.


In Sunday’s New York Times, a dismaying report from Arkansas kept coming back to high-risk subjects who refused the vaccine because they thought masks protected them. Masks are good at stopping you from spreading the disease, not getting it. This was and remains the CDC advice, and yet YouTube apparently might censor you if you use a mainstream news clip making this point because it resembles a claim that “masks do not play a role in preventing the contraction or transmission of COVID-19.”

If such idiocy were actionable under law, half the press would be bankrupted by wrongful-death lawsuits after its promotion of undifferentiated mask fetishism in the summer of 2020, which likely contributed to the embrace of masks and sharp decline in social distancing that the Covid States Project found to be a factor in last fall’s deadly surge.

When adjusted for age priority and residential geography, and equally important the quality of the vaccines being distributed and the priority put on delivering first versus second doses, the U.S. is doing as well as anybody. It’s got at least one jab into 65% of the eligible population. The urgent problem now is the unvaccinated developing world.

In all the successful countries, the rate of vaccination falls off partly from an inversion of the no-atheists-in-foxholes rule: When people feel less threatened by the virus, they take fewer precautions. If asked, in their cognitive dissonance they revert to bluster or cite something from the internet. We’re seeing this movie for the fourth time with the Delta variant’s emergence. To its credit, the Times spent 2,000 words on Arkansas vaccine hesitaters without mentioning political party or Donald Trump. Last week, I guesstimated that most countries would be lucky if vaccine compliance reached 80%. The reason is universal: The vaccine is less inviting when case rates are low. This is why those countries that were most successful in keeping Covid out find their citizens least clamoring for the vaccine or pressuring politicians to supply it.

Which brings us to another problem: Our understanding of cases in the U.S. is still awful, still dependent on voluntary testing among subjects 95% of whom turn out to have symptoms of something else. For all we know, Delta might be rampant among vaccinated people right now without symptoms.


In a related glaring oversight, Kaiser didn’t bother to ask its vaccine-resistant subjects one of the most important questions: Have you had Covid? Our inability to see past “confirmed cases” has been a demonstrable menace, systematically encouraging Americans to underestimate their risk of encountering the virus and overestimate their risk of dying from it.

We can’t understand what we don’t measure. And yet the silence of the press on these failings has been absolute. If editors had been more interested in free and conscientious inquiry, and less interested in executing pet narratives, by now there’s quite a list of ways it might have helped society better rise to the Covid challenge.

Crafty_Dog

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Natural immunity duration
« Reply #1113 on: July 21, 2021, 11:59:26 AM »
https://www.uptodate.com/contents/covid-19-epidemiology-virology-and-prevention?search=undefined&source=covid19_landing&usage_type=main_section#H1575856513

Studies have also identified SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4 and CD8 T cell responses in patients who had recovered from COVID-19 and in individuals who had received an investigational COVID-19 vaccine, which suggest the potential for a durable T cell immune response


ccp

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face it fauch
« Reply #1115 on: July 22, 2021, 06:34:25 AM »
https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2021/07/21/fauci-rand-paul-inflammatory-slanderous-comments-were-completely-out-of-line/

you are on record stating gain of function research is worth the risk
in the past

by your own institutions definition (which you now obfuscate and deny)

through a secondary you provided funds for it ;
Wuhan was clearly involved in this research

you conspired to cover up the truth that the virus leaked from the lab

and even that the Chinese lab works with the CCP military

YET Fauc CONTINUES to LIE about it

and use the phony "science card" :
'if you speak against me you are against science"

the science community is obviously covering their own God darn asses here
and at the same time China

Speaking the truth is NOT slander
   talk to your lawyer.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2021, 01:11:23 PM by ccp »

DougMacG

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re. Face is Fauch
« Reply #1116 on: July 22, 2021, 10:48:41 AM »
Well put, ccp.

Babylon Bee put it this way:

"Debate Erupts Between Trusted Medical Doctor And Dr. Fauci"
https://babylonbee.com/news/debate-erupts-between-trusted-medical-doctor-and-dr-fauci

John Hinderaker said, I may have treated as many patients as Dr. Fauci.  (He was a trial lawyer.)

Strange thought but what if they had just approached covid with preparedness and truth?

Gain of function research, co-funding a weapons lab with our enemy, lying about the origin, coverup the early testing fiasco, mask nonsense that changes with the wind, school closings, lodge in place orders, deceptive casualty stats,... and they can't figure out why trust collapsed.

Fauci could have replaced the mask inventory Obama depleted and he could have heeded the warning of Sen Majority Leader Bill Frist 15 years earlier facing SARS, instead of tapdancing around truth now.

https://americanmind.org/salvo/a-storm-for-which-we-were-unprepared/
A Storm for Which We Were Unprepared
Bill Frist, M.D. Senator
June 5, 2005

https://firehydrantoffreedom.com/index.php?topic=1148.msg124876#msg124876

the evidence strongly suggests that we are at the threshold of a major shift in the antigenicity of not merely one but several categories of pathogens, for never have we observed among them such variety, richness, opportunities for combination, and alacrity to combine and mutate. HIV, variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (mad cow), avian influenzas such as H5N1, and SARS are merely the advance patrols of a great army forming out of sight, the lightning that however silent and distant gives rise to the dread of an approaching storm—a storm for which we are entirely unprepared. How can that be? How can the richest country in the world, with its great institutions, experts, and learned commissions, have failed to make adequate preparation—when preparation is all—for epidemics with the potential of killing off large segments of its population?"
...
"new facts such as rapid, voluminous, and essential travel and trade; the decline of staffed hospital beds; and a now heavily urbanized and suburbanized American population dependent as never before upon easily disrupted networks of services and supply, lead me to believe that—especially because vaccines, if they could be devised, would not be available en masse until six to nine months after the outbreak of a pandemic—the imminence of such viruses might result in the immensely high death tolls to which I have alluded. It is true that none of these viruses has yet spread geometrically—instantly and irrevocably overcoming health care systems and pulling us backward across thresholds of darkness that we long have believed we would never cross again. And yet this they might do—either entirely on their own or as a result of intentional human intervention."
...
"the inadequacy of what little has been done, but a hint may be accurately conveyed by the fact that the nation’s largest biocontaminant unit with fully adequate quarantine and negative air is a ten-bed facility in Omaha, or by the absurdity of a recent announcement from the Washington Hospital Center that in “implementing plans for handling any disaster that might effect our capital,” and “to deal with the worst in biological, chemical, and natural disasters,” it has built, “a multi-use, 20-bed ready room”
...
"The nature of the threat being mortal and reaction to it heretofore irresponsible and inadequate, I propose—entirely without prejudice to the necessity and absent the diminution of the means to disrupt, defeat, and confound the aggressor by force of arms—an immense and unprecedented effort. I see not an initiative on the scale of the Manhattan Project, but one that would dwarf the Manhattan Project; not the creation of a giant, multi-billion dollar research institution, but the creation of a score of them; not merely the funding of individual lines of inquiry, but of richly supported fundamental research, a supreme effort in hope of universal application; not the fractional augmentation of medical education but its doubling or tripling; not a wan expansion of emergency hospital capacity, but its expansion, as is necessary and appropriate, by orders of magnitude; not to tame or punish the private sector, but to unleash it especially upon this task; not the creation of a forest of bureaucratic organization charts and the repetition of a hundred million Latinate words in a hundred million meetings that substitute for action, but action itself, unadorned by excuse or delay; not the incremental improvement of stockpiles and means of distribution, but the creation of great and secure stores and networks, with every needed building, laboratory, airplane, truck, and vaccination station, no excuses, no exceptions, everywhere, and for everyone."
...
"today I have tried to impress upon you the urgency I feel in the matter of the immediate destiny not only of America but of the world, for pandemics know neither borders, nor race, nor who is rich nor who is poor, they know only what is human, and it is this that they strike, casting aside the vain definitions that otherwise divide us."
------------------------------------------------------------------------

The people we trusted with our preparedness failed, and Fauci is the head of it.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2021, 11:04:18 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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ccp

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #1119 on: July 22, 2021, 01:15:47 PM »
".House Democrats Block COVID Origins Declassification Bill "

They  just can't let Trump be right

truth be damned

full speed ahead with fake news.








DougMacG

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Covid Sweden
« Reply #1120 on: July 23, 2021, 09:31:05 AM »




DougMacG

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Re: This is how you do it!
« Reply #1124 on: July 24, 2021, 03:05:27 PM »
Simply brilliant.  I would like to find a local attorney this assertive for various issues that come up from time to time. 

I'm not against vaccines.  I'm against other people, business or government making my choices for me.

G M

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Re: This is how you do it!
« Reply #1125 on: July 24, 2021, 03:11:05 PM »


Simply brilliant.  I would like to find a local attorney this assertive for various issues that come up from time to time. 

I'm not against vaccines.  I'm against other people, business or government making my choices for me.

Exactly.

I'm so old, I remember when "my body, my choice" was a thing.


ccp

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DJT recommends vaccine
« Reply #1127 on: July 25, 2021, 03:31:25 PM »
https://www.yahoo.com/news/recommend-vaccine-donald-trump-023528036.html

I notice Fox people also changing their tune about the vaccine of late too.
About time.




Crafty_Dog

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G M

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Re: DJT recommends vaccine
« Reply #1129 on: July 25, 2021, 07:27:21 PM »
A serious mistake, IMHO.


https://www.yahoo.com/news/recommend-vaccine-donald-trump-023528036.html

I notice Fox people also changing their tune about the vaccine of late too.
About time.


ccp

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #1131 on: July 26, 2021, 04:23:14 AM »
hundred + million vaccinated
and 7 months into it and people are not dropping like flies from the vaccine

The Left is making hay about how so many cases are now in Florida

and the vast majority of hospitalized ones are in unvaccinated

Anyway,
somehow I suspect we are nearing the tail end of the pandemic
and the waves will burn out over the next 1 or 2.

in 1918 the flu came in waves now identified to persist in smaller less severe pockets of outbreaks until 1921 to1923 ish

of course just a hunch.


G M

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #1132 on: July 26, 2021, 08:39:54 AM »
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/here-we-go-again

hundred + million vaccinated
and 7 months into it and people are not dropping like flies from the vaccine

The Left is making hay about how so many cases are now in Florida

and the vast majority of hospitalized ones are in unvaccinated

Anyway,
somehow I suspect we are nearing the tail end of the pandemic
and the waves will burn out over the next 1 or 2.

in 1918 the flu came in waves now identified to persist in smaller less severe pockets of outbreaks until 1921 to1923 ish

of course just a hunch.

G M

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Totally trustworthy!
« Reply #1133 on: July 26, 2021, 04:13:28 PM »
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/johnsonandjohnson-cancer/

Unlike their carcenogenic baby powder, you can't sue them for any vaccine related issues.



G M

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Seems legit!
« Reply #1136 on: July 26, 2021, 08:01:12 PM »




Crafty_Dog

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G M

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DougMacG

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Re: Epidemics: Optimism down 20 points in 2 months
« Reply #1146 on: July 29, 2021, 01:36:53 PM »
Optimism down 20 points since May, 26 points with Independents!

https://nypost.com/2021/07/26/the-honeymoons-over-american-optimism-drops-20-points-to-mark-bidens-six-months-in-office/

My reaction, slow learners, but better than total and permanent denial.

Every policy of this Administration is designed to bring down this country.  If that is an exaggeration, tell me one policy of theirs that is not.