Author Topic: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold  (Read 521834 times)


ya

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UST broke the peg and is at 0.79, so there is a possibility that it goes to 1$, an easy 20 % gain....or it goes kaput  :-D

ya

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Overall, BTC is volatile enough. No need to buy Altcoins, 99% of which will go to zero. If BTC is expensive, think in terms of Satoshis. 0.1 BTC is not daunting to buy.
Altcoins are a crap shoot, but cycle wise they go up, after BTC has peaked. At this time it is not clear if BTC has peaked or is consolidating. I think its consolidating in a wide range.

ya

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"UST broke the peg and is at 0.79, so there is a possibility that it goes to 1$, an easy 20 % gain....or it goes kaput  :-D"
Luna...
« Last Edit: May 11, 2022, 05:00:52 AM by ya »

Crafty_Dog

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Took a small nibble at BTC yesterday.

Crafty_Dog

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No idea as to how significant this is:

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/did-biggest-recent-buyer-bitcoin-just-become-forced-seller?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=655

==================================

WSJ

Cryptocurrency TerraUSD Plunges as Investors Bail
Algorithmic stablecoin nosedived, briefly pushing it to less than a quarter of its original $1 value

The break in TerraUSD’s peg began over the weekend with a series of withdrawals of TerraUSD from Anchor Protocol, a sort of decentralized bank for crypto investors.
PHOTO: TIFFANY HAGLER-GEARD/BLOOMBERG NEWS
By Caitlin OstroffFollow
 and Elaine YuFollow
Updated May 11, 2022 9:04 am ET
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A selloff in a cryptocurrency that was supposed to be pegged to $1 accelerated Wednesday, briefly sending its price to less than a quarter of that value.

TerraUSD traded as low as 23 cents Wednesday, according to data from CoinDesk. As of 8:53 a.m. ET, it had rebounded partially to about 30 cents in volatile trading.

A stablecoin, this breed of cryptocurrencies had gained favor among traders for being the one part of the crypto universe that was known for its stability. While the most popular stablecoins maintain their levels with assets that include dollar-denominated debt and cash, TerraUSD is what is known as an algorithmic stablecoin, which relies on financial engineering to maintain its link to the dollar.

TerraUSD's peg
May 9
May 11
0.3
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1.0
$1.1
The break in TerraUSD’s peg began over the weekend with a series of large withdrawals of TerraUSD from Anchor Protocol, a sort of decentralized bank for crypto investors.

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Anchor Protocol is built on the technology of the same Terra blockchain network that TerraUSD is based on. It had been a major factor in the growth of the stablecoin in recent months by allowing crypto investors to earn returns of nearly 20% annually by lending out their TerraUSD holdings.

At the same time, TerraUSD was also sold for other stablecoins backed by traditional assets through various liquidity pools that contribute to the stability of the peg, as well as through cryptocurrency exchanges. The sudden outflow of money spooked some traders who began selling TerraUSD and its sister token Luna. Before its peg was broken, TerraUSD was the third-largest stablecoin with a total market value of $18 billion.

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TerraUSD’s fall to 23 cents at around 3:30 a.m. ET marked a 70% drop from its value 24 hours earlier, according to CoinDesk.

Even as TerraUSD began regaining some value after hitting its low, Luna continued to fall. The token was down 97% from the previous 24 hours at 8:53 a.m. ET, trading at 99 cents.

“I understand the last 72 hours have been extremely tough on all of you—know that I am resolved to work with every one of you to weather this crisis, and we will build our way out of this,” wrote Do Kwon, the South Korean developer who created TerraUSD, on Twitter on Wednesday.

Stablecoins have surged in popularity the past two years and now act as the grease that moves the gears of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Traders prefer to buy coins such as bitcoin, ether and dogecoin using digital assets that are pegged to the dollar because when they buy or sell, the price is only moving on one side. They also allow for fast trading without the settlement times associated with government-issued currencies, which can take days.

The price of bitcoin fell to $29,460.20 Wednesday, down 4.8% from its 5 p.m. ET level Tuesday. It has lost about 25% of its value over the past week alone.

May 10
May 11
0
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In the past, TerraUSD maintained its $1 price by relying on traders who acted as its backstop. When it fell below the peg, traders would “burn” the stablecoin—removing it from circulation—by exchanging TerraUSD for $1 worth of new units of Luna. That action reduced the supply of TerraUSD and raised its price.

Conversely, when TerraUSD’s value rose above $1, traders could burn Luna and create new TerraUSD, thus increasing the supply of the stablecoin and lowering its price back toward $1.

Such a model has drawn criticism because it relies on people’s collective willingness to support the cryptocurrency. Without that, the stablecoin can quickly sink, in what industry participants have described as a “death spiral.”

Martin Hiesboeck, head of blockchain and crypto research at digital money platform Uphold, compared what is happening with TerraUSD and Luna to a bank run. “People don’t trust it anymore, they’re running for the exit,” he said.

Mr. Kwon, the TerraUSD creator, also co-founded the Luna Foundation Guard, a nonprofit that has been helping to support TerraUSD and maintain its peg.


Earlier this week, the foundation said it lent $750 million of bitcoin to trading firms to protect the stablecoin’s peg. Blockchain records of the foundation’s wallet show that it no longer holds bitcoin in that account.

The previous day, TerraUSD’s value had rebounded to around 90 cents after falling to 61 cents, while Luna had also recovered after plunging.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2022, 09:08:52 AM by Crafty_Dog »

ccp

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Lisa Cook
« Reply #2006 on: May 11, 2022, 10:14:56 AM »
I thought at least she is not harvard or yale

but looked closer and of course she is harvard:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_D._Cook

ya

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ya

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- That is why it is said, Not your keys not your coins. Dont store coins on an exchange..they can be rehypothecated.
- While I DONT advise this, it may be a good time to buy LUNA in case it makes a comeback. This would be a high risk, almost certain way to lose money, but if someone is looking for a lottery ticket...
- Australia launches its BTC ETF...should improve BTC price.

Crafty_Dog

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I'm on the edge of cashing out at substantial loss (fortunately I limited how much I put in)

GBTC
BTC
ETH

I kinda thought an important part of the premise was that crypto protected against inflation and political uncertainty , , ,

ya

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Always a hard question. All I can say is unlike stocks, BTC has had several 85 % declines, it's a feature not a bug.

ccp

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now that money is flowing out of crypto
« Reply #2012 on: May 12, 2022, 01:54:51 PM »
I find it interesting the both gold and silver are still going no where

people must be putting into cash

many waiting to get back in

I still holding BC and ETHER
but admit I am lucky as I am still ahead, for now....   :-o

might even buy a little more
but not yet

ccp

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went. to a diner and prime rib dinner was $28+ bucks

at a diner !

I remember my father taking the five us out and the whole bill was ! 15 bucks with tip.
Full prime rib dinner ~ 3.25 .

I remember seeing a menu from a tavern that was from the 1790s

a steak was listed for 2 cents !
I guess it was either fresh or very salty  :-P

Crafty_Dog

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"I find it interesting the both gold and silver are still going no where"

Indeed, Gold is down 5+% from its peak.

G M

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I've lost about half of my initial investment. Luckily, it wasn't much. I've invested in food, additional weapon systems, additional body armor and LOTS of ammo.



I'm on the edge of cashing out at substantial loss (fortunately I limited how much I put in)

GBTC
BTC
ETH

I kinda thought an important part of the premise was that crypto protected against inflation and political uncertainty , , ,

Crafty_Dog

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FWIW BTC and ETH pre-market up nicely.

ya

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Yesterday BTC touched 25.5 K, and that was stressing to many including myself. A few random thoughts.
- While no one can predict the bottom, BTC is unlikely to go below 22K. Seehttps://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/if-the-price-changes-so-does-the?s=w
- I have over 4-5 years experience. Started by buying BTC and altcoins, over time I learnt that altcoins are all scams, did some trading and quickly focussed on BTC.
- I have never sold any BTC thro all the ups and downs, only added to my position.
-----------------------------------

I am convinced that BTC will NOT go to zero, there are too many large companies and countries invested in it. It has survived everything thrown against it for the last 10 years. I have spent a lot of time and effort learning about it to have this conviction, which is what allows me to hold on when the going gets tough. Remember, even the US govt has never said they are going to ban BTC, infact the govt holds BTC (confiscated). So far, any 4 year holding period has been very profitable, but it comes with volatility, which is upward. Everyone should look at a BTC log chart on a weekly and monthly time frame. If the main premise of the bet is right, these minor fluctuations will not matter in the next 5 years.

So Hodl on...and never invest so much that you get sleep less nights.

Crafty_Dog

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Much appreciated YA!!!

May I ask for your thoughts on GBTC?

For me it has been a way for an investor interested in the space, yet ignorant about the details, to play the space.  Though pieces of my position are still positive, I added to it various times on the way up so net I am down-- though I suppose that all that matters is prospect from here forward.


ya

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July 6, the SEC will let them know, if they can convert to ETF. If that happens the premium will increase and is off to the races. They plan to sue the SEC, if they object  because the SEC allows several futures ETF but not spot ETF. It's a matter of time....that they will convert to an ETF.

Crafty_Dog

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Thank you!

ccp

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ya

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Important read on monetary policy and crypto by zoltan

https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=54t3-WTBd-V

ya

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I have previously posted about the fantastic business that Jack Mallers of Strike is building. This is one company I would invest in, if it went public. One more anecdote as to why BTC will not go to zero, though it could go lower for a short while.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1525179602234134528

ya

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If anyone is invested in Celsius, time to get out...they had a large investment in Terra/Luna. The downstream effects of investors in LUNA may start to show up.

ya

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Watch the long term arc of history. Drawdowns are no fun....but...


G M

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Collapse
« Reply #2026 on: May 15, 2022, 10:23:44 AM »

ya

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Marty Armstrong has been saying this for a long time. Basically they want to increase debts so much, that everything crashes and burns, then there will be a debt amnesty and as the WEF says "You will own nothing and be happy".

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/new-interview-martin-armstrong-on-the-hrvoje-moric-show/

G M

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That's the plan.

Gosh! We better VOTE HARDER!

Marty Armstrong has been saying this for a long time. Basically they want to increase debts so much, that everything crashes and burns, then there will be a debt amnesty and as the WEF says "You will own nothing and be happy".

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/new-interview-martin-armstrong-on-the-hrvoje-moric-show/

ccp

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"That's the plan.

Gosh! We better VOTE HARDER!"

Are you suggesting this as the alternative ?:

https://populistpress.com/great-replacement-theory-motive-in-supermarket-massacre/

if not, then what?

for now I am voting as hard as I can.......

G M

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The votes that matter:

Your Sheriff (If your Sheriff doesn't have any real authority, that's a clue it's time to move).

Your DA.

Your County Commissioners

Your School Board.

You better be in the reddest county in the reddest state you can find.

Time is very limited at this point.


"That's the plan.

Gosh! We better VOTE HARDER!"

Are you suggesting this as the alternative ?:

https://populistpress.com/great-replacement-theory-motive-in-supermarket-massacre/

if not, then what?

for now I am voting as hard as I can.......

ya

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I'm on the edge of cashing out at substantial loss (fortunately I limited how much I put in)

GBTC
BTC
ETH

I kinda thought an important part of the premise was that crypto protected against inflation and political uncertainty , , ,

Hope you are still in....while nothing is guaranteed...the long term (4 year) trend is up.

Crafty_Dog

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Yes, figuring myself to be a contra-indicator I decided to stay in hahahaha.

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ
« Reply #2033 on: May 16, 2022, 03:28:21 AM »
Crypto Prices Move in Tandem With Traditional Markets, Punishing Investors
The cryptocurrency declines are hitting those who bought digital assets to diversify portfolios

A cryptocurrency exchange kiosk in Istanbul last month. Bitcoin prices have been notching big swings this year.
PHOTO: ERHAN DEMIRTAS/BLOOMBERG NEWS
By Gregory ZuckermanFollow
May 16, 2022 5:30 am ET


Cryptocurrency prices are moving in lockstep with stocks and bonds like never before, punishing those who bought bitcoin and other digital assets in part to diversify their investment holdings.

The three-month correlation between the cryptocurrencies bitcoin and ether and the major U.S. stock indexes hit its highest level on record last week, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That level, between 0.67 and 0.78, is more than triple the average correlation between crypto and the S&P 500 from 2019 to 2021. A correlation of 1 suggests the markets are moving in lockstep, while 0 says they aren’t related. The one- and two-month correlations are at record levels.

The day of that record correlation, bitcoin dropped 10% and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 4%, marking its steepest three-day point decline on record. Though bitcoin and other digital assets have long been viewed as among the riskiest investments in markets, analysts and portfolio managers say the depth of crypto declines this year and their tendency to echo other riskier assets such as stocks potentially could limit their adoption by mainstream investors.

Crypto has “become part of the mainstream financial system, and that’s not good for its viability as an alternative asset class,” said Richard Craib, who runs a quant hedge fund in San Francisco called Numerai. “It’s not serving its original purpose as an uncorrelated asset.”


Stocks, bonds and crypto have all been falling as investors struggle to manage the large swings roiling financial markets around the globe. WSJ’s Caitlin McCabe looks at some of the causes behind the recent market frenzy. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Last week, Mr. Craib sold $2.5 million of ether, his entire holding of the cryptocurrency, partly because ether has been trading too much like stocks and bonds. He first bought the cryptocurrency in 2014.


For several years, proponents of bitcoin, ether and other cryptocurrencies argued that they could serve as “alternative” investments that help offset losses in an investment portfolio, or at least cushion any declines in stocks and bonds. Those arguments, among others, helped persuade more hedge funds and other professional investors to add bitcoin and ether to their portfolios. 

Large funds, such as Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management LLC, and companies including Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc. and Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy Inc. have purchased bitcoin, moves that have helped financial markets become more aligned with crypto markets.


Meanwhile, crypto-related companies such as Coinbase Global Inc. have gone public over the past year or so, which has further connected digital trading markets with stocks and bonds.

But the 2022 market rout—which has spared little other than commodities whose value has surged at a time of high inflation—has stood that logic on its head.

Traders and analysts say one reason markets are moving in tandem is because so many traditional investors have added digital currencies to their portfolios. As they have suffered from their stock and bond investments in the most recent market rout, some investors have been raising cash by selling crypto. At the same time, weakness in stocks and bonds has reduced the appetite many investors have for crypto.

 Last week, Alesia Haas, chief financial officer of crypto brokerage Coinbase, said: “Nasdaq is down, Bitcoin is down. And that has led to less and less dollars being put into crypto.”


Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca, a digital-asset investment firm that interacts with large institutions, said digital currencies’ 24-hour trading day makes it easy for hedge funds and other investors to place bearish trades as they turn pessimistic on the outlook for markets. He also said some funds have been selling digital assets because they don’t want to have to explain to more-conservative clients why they are holding these more speculative investments.

“They’re selling it to ‘window dress’ their funds,” he said.

Until recently, the institutions and other newer entrants were seen as beneficial to crypto markets. Now, as some of these same investors sell in a tumbling market, the downside to that shift is becoming more apparent, some say.

 

ya

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Terra/Luna sold 80,000 BTC during last week to defend the peg. A lot of selling was absorbed.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/luna-foundation-sold-80000-bitcoin-amid-ust-crash

DougMacG

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"The votes that matter:

Your Sheriff (If your Sheriff doesn't have any real authority, that's a clue it's time to move).

Your DA.

Your County Commissioners

Your School Board."

------------------
Why the partial list?

State legislatures matter!

State Attorney Generals matter.  cf. KEITH ELLISON
(You know all this, don't need me to say it.)

House of Representatives matters.

US Senate matters.

Presidency matters.

Margin of victory or defeat, every vote matters.

"You better be in the reddest county in the reddest state you can find."

And how did that county and state get 'red' ?  If it wasn't you, somebody gave their time and money and did the hard work of electioneering you seem to, (pretend to?) take for granted.

How about we work at this process until we get more counties and more states red until the other side has to retreat into some blue county in a rare remaining blue state where they can tax each other to death, take away each other's God given rights, mandate menstrual products in the men's room and steer their male perverts into the girls' bathrooms while we live in freedom under one fair, enforced rule of law?
« Last Edit: May 16, 2022, 05:50:43 AM by DougMacG »

G M

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"The votes that matter:

Your Sheriff (If your Sheriff doesn't have any real authority, that's a clue it's time to move).

Your DA.

Your County Commissioners

Your School Board."

------------------
Why the partial list?

State legislatures matter!

State Attorney Generals matter.  cf. KEITH ELLISON
(You know all this, don't need me to say it.)

House of Representatives matters.

US Senate matters.

Presidency matters.

Margin of victory or defeat, every vote matters.

"You better be in the reddest county in the reddest state you can find."

And how did that county and state get 'red' ?  If it wasn't you, somebody gave their time and money and did the hard work of electioneering you seem to, (pretend to?) take for granted.

How about we work at this process until we get more counties and more states red until the other side has to retreat into some blue county in a rare remaining blue state where they can tax each other to death, take away each other's God given rights, mandate menstrual products in the men's room and steer their male perverts into the girls' bathrooms while we live in freedom under one fair, enforced rule of law?

Local is all you have the chance to control, state and federal elections have been and will be stolen.

ya

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International game theory in action..El Salv Prez says 32 Central banks from developing countries and 44 country representatives attending. Sort of like, when one US state made marijuana legal, they all have to (otherwise lose tax revenue).

Probably nothing..

https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1526029996787216387
« Last Edit: May 16, 2022, 05:39:00 PM by ya »


ccp

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rapid google search on penalty in China for bitcoin mining & this comes up
« Reply #2039 on: May 18, 2022, 02:22:57 PM »
China Makes Crypto Transactions Illegal, Threatens up to 10 Years in Prison. And fines up to RMB 500,000 ($79,000). China's Supreme Court hardened its stance on cryptocurrencies this Thursday after enshrining them into law under the list of illegal fundraising methods.Feb 25, 2022


ya

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This is how BTC behaves...when you least expect it. BTC has been ranging for a while at the 30 K level.


Crafty_Dog

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CCP:  Interesting total lack of congruence there between the source I cite and yours , , ,

ya

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Speculation is that Chinese govt is mining the coins for their treasury as a store of value (like gold), while the population is not allowed to use BTC, for it competes with their CBDC. There is this intetresting report about how Jack Dorsey, ex CEO Twitter plans to bring BTC mining to the people.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/block-investor-day-2022-talks-bitcoin

ya

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If the $ (DXY)pulls back, expect BTC to go up.

ya

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Sometimes we tend to think, oh if only I had known about BTC earlier. The reality is most that held BTC early on sold a 20-30 % rally. It is really hard to hold BTC during the bear markets, which until recently have been 85 % pull backs several times. Today is BTC Pizza day.

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-pizza-day-time-regret-and-fantasy



ccp

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Steves Forbes interview in new book "Inflation"
« Reply #2047 on: May 22, 2022, 11:15:44 AM »
an hour long
but fascinating

the best I have ever heard Steve in interview:

https://www.c-span.org/video/?519581-1/after-words-steve-forbes

suggests we go back to gold
standard to stabilize how we tighten or loosen
money

states between 1790 and 1972 when we are on gold standard annual growth averaged 4.2 %
(except for periods of Civil War WW1 and WW 2)

and Nixon for selfish political reasons ended the dollar tied to gold at $ 35 and thus began a 50 yr period where growth fell to 2.7 % average annually

so for example today a household making $67K per annum would have been making more like 100K per annum.

states Nixon made a big mistake  which  we still have today .

he was asked about crypto and
had some comments
he called crypto a "speculative vehicle"
but feels the future is more with "stable coin"
as an alternative storage of value that has stable value

crypto being up and down and all over the place is [so far] not a good store of value.

states the Fed today has no clue what they are doing and are doing a terrible job.

And I would add the STUPIDITY  of the Senate who just voted to keep Powell in as Fed Chair
   how utterly stupid .......

where are the Republicans on this issue?

OTOH are they voting him in so he can continue to f**k up till the election ?


ccp

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lagarde
« Reply #2049 on: May 23, 2022, 07:44:45 AM »