Author Topic: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold  (Read 652242 times)

ya

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The reality is that even under Trump, the debt will continue to increase. What can save the $ ?...if they back the USD with BTC or keep BTC as a reserve asset. The second thing they will do is to require stable coins to be backed by US treasuries. This would be a new source of demand for US Treasuries, as China is overall selling.

ya

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Next Saturday, Trump speaks at the largest BTC conference in the world in Nashville. If he says/hints that he will convert the 200K confiscated BTC under control of the US govt as a reserve asset just like Gold, that could spike BTC. Watch market action on 26th July afternoon...

Another surprise is that Elon Musk has switched on laser eyes on his X profile. Putting on laser eyes is a custom of BTC maxis. He might also be a surprise guest at the conference and could make an announcement, e.g. Tesla will accept BTC for payment/pure speculation here..
« Last Edit: July 21, 2024, 06:52:45 PM by ya »


Crafty_Dog

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Decrypt
« Reply #3103 on: July 22, 2024, 04:31:31 PM »


U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision not to seek re-election sent shockwaves around the world—and immediately sparked speculation as to what it meant for the crypto vote in the coming election.

With the crypto industry weighing the views of Biden’s potential replacements, experts saw it as a possible opportunity for the Democratic Party to regain ground lost to the Republicans, following Republican contender Donald Trump’s seeming Damascene conversion on Bitcoin.

But it was events on the other side of the world that had the most marked impact on Bitcoin’s price Monday morning, with China’s unexpected decision to cut interest rates briefly pushing the cryptocurrency above $68,000.

ya

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Watch this...when it breaks, we are off to the races. The week of 29th July might be it ?


ya

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Trump proposes BTC strategic reserve.  Cynthia Lummis
Is readying legislation.

Cynthia Lummis called it the equivalent of a modern day Louisiana Purchase and the purchase of Alaska. Yet the media does not even cover it, nor do they understand.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2024, 01:06:39 PM by ya »


ya

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Soon

ya

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Since Trump decided to make BTC a national strategic reserve asset. Democrats decided to sell a few billion BTC today. Result was predictable, from 70K to 66K.

Crafty_Dog

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Decrypto:
« Reply #3109 on: July 30, 2024, 11:47:49 AM »


Following a busy weekend for Bitcoin moves, including Donald Trump vowing to create a “strategic Bitcoin stockpile” for the U.S. if elected and Senator Cynthia Lummis announcing her own Bitcoin reserve proposal, the price of Bitcoin touched $70,000 early Monday for the first time in several weeks.

And then it fell. Bitcoin was already on its way down when a wallet connected to the U.S. government moved over $2 billion worth of seized BTC tied to the Silk Road dark web marketplace. That accelerated the decline, with BTC dipping below $67,000 before rebounding slightly—but the volatile price action only supercharged the tally of crypto liquidations over the past day.

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Trumpian cognitive dissonance
« Reply #3110 on: July 30, 2024, 12:01:34 PM »


Second


Donald Trump wowed the crowds Saturday at the Bitcoin Conference by promising to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the planet.” But he has some work to do to iron out the contradiction in his crypto-currency policy.

“The moment I’m sworn in, the persecution stops and the weaponization ends against your industry,” the former President told 3,000 or so cheering crypto enthusiasts in Nashville. If nothing else, he recruited many more campaign donors, which was no doubt part of the plan.

Mr. Trump is right that Biden regulators have targeted the industry, often unfairly. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler has sued crypto companies for violating securities laws that don’t offer clear guidance on crypto investing. Regulators have sought to deter banks from providing services to crypto companies, in part by warning about their risks to “safety and soundness.”

During the 2023 regional bank turmoil, regulators seized Signature Bank, which had a market niche serving crypto companies, though its executives thought it could withstand a run on deposits. Former Rep. Barney Frank, who had served on Signature’s board, alleged that regulators were trying “to send a message to get people away from crypto.”

Mr. Trump on Saturday vowed to end what he called this government “Operation Choke-point 2.0” against the crypto industry. Choke-point refers to the stealth campaign by Obama-era regulators to coerce banks to stop serving payday lenders and gun retailers. Mr. Trump promised to replace Mr. Gensler, which is an easy call, though not only because of his crusade against crypto.

Mr. Gensler’s overarching sin is shifting the SEC from its core mission of protecting investors to advance the priorities of Sen. Elizabeth Warren. This includes sweeping regulations on corporate climate disclosure, short-selling, private investment funds, stock buybacks and more. Courts have blocked many of his actions.

Mr. Trump is a convert to crypto enthusiasm. Five years ago he called bitcoin a “scam,” claiming its “value is highly volatile and based on thin air.” He had a point about the latter, as its price has often moved sharply. But now he says “bitcoin stands for freedom, sovereignty and independence from government coercion and control.”

But freedom from government isn’t what he’s proposing. He wants all future bitcoin to be made in America, which is a limit on freedom and would require a much bigger electric grid since bitcoin mining is energy intensive. He also floated establishing a “strategic national bitcoin stockpile,” which appears to be based on a proposal by Sen. Cynthia Lummis, a Wyoming Republican.

Ms. Lummis wants the U.S. Treasury to buy one million bitcoins—about $68 billion at current prices—over five years. This would presumably be a national strategic reserve, like the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. “Bitcoin is a great store of value. Over the last four years or so it has increased about 55% per year,” she says. But bitcoin’s value plunged in 2022 as the Federal Reserve tightened money.

She says the government could reduce the national debt by investing in bitcoin. Not if its price craters, or politicians raid the reserve to pay for spending or to bail out businesses if there’s a crypto crash. That’s what politicians always do—see the misuse of the petroleum reserve by several Presidents. The Treasury would also have to borrow to buy bitcoins for the reserve in the first place. Crypto investors may find that getting in bed with the government is risky business.

***
If crypto currencies really are a libertarian vehicle to invest free from political vagaries, then they should trade on their own without government help. Regulators can protect investors from scammers and lay out transparent rules. But Mr. Trump’s sketchy plan reflects the contradictions of much of his MAGA platform, which advocates deregulation but at the same time more government industrial policy.

If Mr. Trump wants to strike a contrast with Kamala Harris, he might instead call for government getting out of the business of picking winners and losers—crypto and bitcoin included. It never ends well.


ya

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BTC Reserve Legislation
« Reply #3111 on: July 31, 2024, 06:44:54 PM »
« Last Edit: July 31, 2024, 07:01:00 PM by Crafty_Dog »

Body-by-Guinness

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Schwab Ain’t Woke, But Its Investments Aren’t Sleeping
« Reply #3112 on: August 01, 2024, 05:31:23 PM »
Interesting explanation of Chiefio’s investment strategy:

Funds ex-Blackrock: Use Schwab!
Posted on 1 August 2024 by E.M.Smith
Intro

Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street – all of them vote shares hard left / ESG / DIE etc. and push companies and their executives into Budweiser Moments or Disney Decay. One wonders why, when it would cost the company and the shareholders a lot of money.

Well, perhaps it is because a huge part of their “Holdings” are in various funds that are owned by someone else, but where the voting rights end up in their pocket. So they don’t really care if the stock goes up or down.

Take, for example, the ticker SPY. That is an S&P 500 fund that holds 500 stocks. Yet I don’t get 500 voting sheets when I own SPY…

SPY is a product of State Street who have the SPDR set of funds. Similar sets of funds are run by Vanguard, Blackrock (iShares), etc.

But what if you want to own the S&P 500 in an Exchange Traded Fund, but don’t want State Street, Vanguard, Blackrock to vote those shares? Well, Schwab has a large set of funds as well. Furthermore, I have no idea what the political orientation of Schwab might be. I think that is a feature. Near as I can tell, they are politically neutral. In 2021 they shut down their political contribution PAC.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/13/business/charles-schwab-pac.html

By Lauren Hirsch
Jan. 13, 2021
Charles Schwab will shut down its political action committee, perhaps the most significant move among companies rethinking their political donations after last week’s violence in the Capitol.

Schwab, one of the country’s biggest brokerage firms, with around 30 million customer accounts holding more than $6 trillion in assets, said it found the current “hyperpartisan” environment too complex to navigate without risk of distraction.

“We believe a clear and apolitical position is in the best interest of our clients, employees, stockholders and the communities in which we operate,” the company said on Wednesday.

The company’s PAC will no longer take contributions from employees or make financial contributions to lawmakers. It will donate the leftover funds to Boys & Girls Clubs of America and to historically Black colleges and universities, organizations that Schwab has supported in the past. Schwab’s PAC had around $114,000 in cash near the end of November, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
[…]

In the latest election cycle, Schwab’s PAC gave $460,000 to federal candidates, roughly evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. Among the recipients was the House minority leader, Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, one of the Republicans who voted against certifying President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory.

The Lincoln Project, a group of anti-Trump conservatives, had featured Schwab in a recent campaign highlighting companies that donated to President Trump or the election objectors in Congress.

So if The Left is / was attacking Schwab, then I think I can trust them with my voting rights.


Here is a small selection of Schwab funds that are alternatives to the SPDRS and iShares (Blackrock) dominant tickers. I’ll often still chart the SPDRs or iShares since trade volume in them from professional traders is higher (and volume does tell me things), but I’ll use the Schwab fund for my actual trades and investements “going forward”.

Realize that Schwab has both ETFs that trade real time during the day like a stock ticker, and Mutual Funds that trade only at the end of the day (IIRC it is 5 pm ET when mutual funds are priced and trades complete). So choose accordingly. Also, for Schwab funds, some of them have no commission for trades done in a Schwab account. I’m not sure which all of them have no commission, but at least the Schwab Mutual Fund for S&P 500 had none.

How did I select these tickets? I charted a lot of their tickets and didn’t bother with any that had a history of low returns or were almost identical to another one that had a simpler selection criteria.

Common       Schwab  Class
Ticker       Ticker
DIA          FNDB    Dow 30 Industrials more or less
QQQ / KLX    SCHG    Large Cap Growth ~match Nasdaq 100 at this time
SPY          SWPPX   Mutual Fund S&P 500. 
                     ETFs: SCHB & SCHK SCHX slighly less.
MDY          SCHM    Mid Capitalization US Stocks
IWM          SCHA    Small Caps.  Approx Russel 2000 match 
                     Ditto SCHV w/Dividends a bit higher.
Some Others That I didn’t like at this time, but might be interesting some day. Mostly due to my style of investing and trading, not so much the actual fund performance (though some were lesser lights):

             SCHY    Intl. Dividend Equity
                     (long term flatish, 6.4% yield now)
             SCHH    REIT Real Estate Fund.  Down ~10% over 2 years.
             STCE    Crypto fund.  Very volatile & rising.
             FNDA    "Fundamental" US Small Cap Index
                     A little better than IWM.  But <MDY long term.

International:
             SCHC    Intl small capitalization
             SCHF    Intl Equity
 EEM         SCHE    Emerging Markets
             SCHY    Intl Dividend Equities

Bonds:
             SCYB    High Yield
             SCMB    Muni Bonds
             SCHJ    1-5 yr. Corporate
             SCHI    5-19 year Corporate
             SCHZ    US Aggregate bonds
TIP          SCHP    US TIPs - Treasury Inflation Protected bonds
If there is no “usual ticker” that’s because I don’t normally hold / trade in that category or I didn’t find a good match. Schwab has a lot more funds, and then there’s at least 4 major fund companies with various tickers that trade for various indexes and categories. Doing a full “all vs Schwab” would take a while and make for a huge posting.

For example TLT is long duration US Treasuries. But I don’t have those (or a Schwab alternative) since with inflation what it is, long term treasuries are not your friend. Plus, while a BOND can take a price cut and you can just choose to hold it to expiration and recover that, a BOND FUND has no expiration and if a bunch of folks panic out on a price drop, the fund sells those bonds and locks in the loss. So I avoid bond FUNDS…

My Basic Investment is S&P 500 index funds. Why? Because it is extremely hard to beat the S&P 500. I’ve done it from time to time, but it takes daily attention and a lot of trading (which means commissions and taxes too). How does it do that? There are 3 properties that make it automatically managed for gains.

1) It is the 500 largest American companies (many of which have international operations so you get foreign exposure as well). So you are kept out of the Small Flaky Companies. All those Penny Stocks and Fly By Night Mining Companies and such. By definition, these are the big successful franchises with pricing power and Economies Of Scale in purchasing and operations.

2) Any company that is a young up and comer growing company will eventually enter at the bottom edge, and you get the growth as it moves up the stack. Any company that is shrinking and struggling, eventually leaves at the bottom of the 500 and does so long before bankruptcy and zero value. You automatically “buy in” to winners and “sell out” of losers.

3) It is Capitalization Weighted. Companies that grow, get more shares in the index and more percentage of your “holdings”. Companies that are shrinking get the holdings reduced in proportion (until they leave).

With all that automatic management by a large group of professional financial folks, it is hard to beat.

Over the long haul, the Nasdaq 100 has beaten the S&P 500. This is because the Tech area has grown faster and created whole new markets. Faster invention and innovation (and so, profits). So very long term, the Nasdaq has been the winner. BUT, it is a little more volatile and in down markets, it crashes harder. One of my indicators of a down market is when the QQQ falls under the SPY on the charts.

So a case can be made for holding Nasdaq during good times, and swapping to SPY (or others) during downdrafts. So, in fact, most of the time I hold about 1/2 and 1/2 of S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, plus some things where I trade or play with them.

One other thing:

For metals, there are also alternatives to the GLD (SPDR) and SLV (iShares). They are from Sprott and Aberdeen . PHYS for “physical gold” and SIVR for silver. SGOL is there Aberdeen gold fund.

Advertisement

I don’t know Sprott or Aberdeen political orientation, but I do know I don’t like SPDR and iShares voting my shares.

The Chart

Here is a 5 year weekly tick size chart for several index funds. The main ticker is SWLGX a Schwab Mutual Fund in large Cap Growth. It acts roughly like an average of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 (SPY / QQQ). DIA is the Dow 30 Industrials, MDY is the Mid cap Index, IWM is the Russel 2000 index fund, and RSP is the “equal weight S&P 500” (or one share of each of the 500 regardless of market capitalization).

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and other index 5 year comparison.
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and other index 5 year comparison.

Someday the tech invention / innovation cycle will slow and the relative growth prospects will shift. But tech has been winning for a long time…

Also note how “blue on top” for the DMI / ADX indicator clearly describes rising markets, while “Red on Top” is a good flag for those years to be out. MACD is a little more ambiguous, but not much. Above zero rising or sideways – in. Hard down or below zero – out. Makes it pretty easy to know long term market directions. The hard bit is at the inflection points between “in” and “out”. But frankly, even if you are a month late on making the change, it is a LOT better than riding a down market for a year, or being 2 years late getting back in.

Links To More

To look over more offerings, should you prefer some other categories:

Mutual Funds (including links to how they voted shares):
https://www.schwab.com/mutual-funds/find-mutual-funds/investor-information

ETFs (there’s a lot of them in many categories):

https://www.schwab.com/etfs/invest-in-etfs

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2024/08/01/funds-ex-blackrock-use-schwab/

ccp

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'Just the Facts" Steve Ballmer on Fox: budget deficit
« Reply #3113 on: August 01, 2024, 09:01:22 PM »
was good summary:

https://usafacts.org/just-the-facts/budget/

he also had one on immigration but he relies on government data which we know is not accurate and in some places admits we don't know.

Does anyone trust Myorkas data to be accurate?

est. is still 11 mill illegals in US
all I can say is every time I go out somewhere I see people who were obviously not born here.
it gets more and more by the month.   unbelievable really

yet no one should notice say anything and just move along.


ya

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In a couple of weeks Morgan Stanley clients can buy the BTC ETF

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/morgan-stanley-wealth-advisors-bitcoin-etfs.html

ya

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This analyst, whom I think highly off has analysis using various techniques, such as liquidity, a top in Jan 2025, or 1Q 2015. Interestingly, Martin Armstrong's array model using entirely different technique gives  a panic cycle in Feb 2025 too.




ya

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ya

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Things are moving fast. Republicans want to be the party of BTC and of the Strategic Reserve. Kamla will be forced to support BTC, even though her admin with Gary gensler and Eliz Warren did everything to slow it. 50 million votes are at stake. There is more and more awareness both from trump and others that the BTC reserve is needed. The plan will include backing USDT Tether with US Treasuries. RFK Jr even spoke about Softwar the book by Major Jason Lowery.


ccp

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look out below
« Reply #3119 on: August 05, 2024, 06:16:15 AM »
party over

only silver lining is this may hurt Harris


ccp

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how do we tie this too Biden / Harris?

Fed was way too late raising interest rates so they did and then too late lowering them?


Crafty_Dog

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On the road and so I can't post it here right now, but Paul Krugman has an article in Pravda on the Hudson titled "How 2024 Became a Crypto Election" -- "Will technobabble and libertarian derp get a government bailout?"

Crafty_Dog

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The volatility index, $VIX, is now trading above 65, a level only seen 2 previous times in history. The only 2 times the $VIX has traded above 65 were the 2020 Pandemic and 2008 Financial Crisis (Kobeissi Letter).

Body-by-Guinness

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Chiefio on Market Movement
« Reply #3123 on: August 05, 2024, 03:40:03 PM »
Much of this is beyond my ken, though I’m intrigued by the notion that market movement tends to be fractal, which I take to mean that if one can ID a trend on a micro level it can be extrapolated to predict macro market movement, among other bon mots I’m gonna have to mull. Certainly interested in any holes others can pick in this piece:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2024/08/04/charting-market-tops-bottoms/
« Last Edit: August 05, 2024, 11:45:32 PM by Body-by-Guinness »

Crafty_Dog

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Bitter experience has taught me I am a poor market timer.  Indeed I regard myself as a counter indicator-- when 
I can't take it anymore and feel compelled to sell, the bottom has been or is about to be reached.  This presents some deep conceptual problems haha.

ya

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Party begins soon, latest sometime in end of Sept. Watch the red line, it starts to rise soon, similar to previous cycles, by Oct the line was rising in all previous cycles.


DougMacG

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Bitter experience has taught me I am a poor market timer.  Indeed I regard myself as a counter indicator-- when 
I can't take it anymore and feel compelled to sell, the bottom has been or is about to be reached.  This presents some deep conceptual problems haha.

I resemble that.  Markets up today (so far), but still, worst July in a decade not counting the crash of August.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/08/05/should-you-buy-stocks-after-worst-july/

Speaking of bad timing, Joe Biden said 6 days before the crash(?), "I cured the economy".  And Harris embraces Bidenomics - still.

Whatever happens next, I think we can call this one the Harris crash.  Prices look high relative to the outlook of the country as a sure Trump win has very recently turned into a tossup.

DougMacG

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Economic Advisors Chair, Jared Bernstein
« Reply #3127 on: August 06, 2024, 10:26:37 AM »
https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1820470385495695443

The Biden-Harris Administration’s handpicked Economic Advisors Chair, Jared Bernstein, is not a trained economist, obviously.  But he did study music and "social work", very similar fields:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Bernstein

We can't go bankrupt because we can print our own money.  Umm, can't Argentina print it's own money.  Can't the Roman empire mint its own money?

If we can print it, why borrow it?  He doesn't know.

This would be like finding out, after you're cut open, your heart surgeon holding the knife doesn't know more than the general public about internal organs.

Imagine Trump picked a top economic adviser with no training in economics...
« Last Edit: August 06, 2024, 04:28:59 PM by Crafty_Dog »

DougMacG

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Washington Post: US Pension funds looking at Bitcoin
« Reply #3128 on: August 06, 2024, 02:53:49 PM »
U.S. pension funds are beginning to explore investments around bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, a move that could expose millions of former teachers, police officers, firefighters and other retirees to the wild ups and downs of a largely unregulated financial product. In at least five states, industry lobbyists have aggressively hawked the idea, aiming to woo local lawmakers with the promise that digital assets can deliver sky-high profits — often without fully acknowledging the possible risks. The emerging sales campaign contrasts with the broad warnings in Washington that investing in cryptocurrency could leave retirees’ life savings vulnerable to “fraud, theft and loss.”
  - Source: washingtonpost.com today


Crafty_Dog

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Sen. Lummis: Buy the BTC dip
« Reply #3130 on: August 08, 2024, 09:53:13 AM »


Will America Buy the Dip and Hold Bitcoin?
Over the long term, a strategic bitcoin reserve will serve as a store of value.
Aug. 7, 2024 11:00 am ET


The Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, July 26. Photo: Liam Kennedy/Bloomberg News
Regarding your editorial “Trump Becomes a Crypto Convert” (July 30): Bitcoin is digital gold. It’s a reliable, long-term store of value and one of the best-performing financial assets in recent memory. The editorial board points to a dip in prices in 2022 as a reason for the U.S. not to create a strategic bitcoin reserve. With any store of value, however, there is short-term volatility. Between 2012 and 2013, the value of America’s gold reserves dropped 27%.

A bitcoin reserve would function similarly. While there may be short-term volatility, over the long term a bitcoin reserve like this will serve as an important and stable store of value. That is why all bitcoin in reserve should be subject to a 20-year minimum holding period.

When I was state treasurer of Wyoming from 1999 to 2007, I focused on diversifying the state’s Permanent Mineral Trust Fund. I diversified our state’s investments into a variety of assets, including equities, which increased Wyoming’s assets under management from $3.5 billion to $8.6 billion.

My experience taught me that diversifying government funds is critical, and it’s time for the federal government to follow Wyoming’s lead. Under my plan, our nation can create a strategic bitcoin reserve that is entirely paid for by revaluing the $11 billion in gold certificates held on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. By updating this amount to the current price of gold, we will have enough funds to buy bitcoin during the next five years and hold it long-term. America desperately needs to build wealth to pay down the national debt, and this is an important step.

Sen. Cynthia M. Lummis (R., Wyo.)

ya

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Aug 7, Morgan Stanley gave the go ahead to market BTC ETF's to its 15.000 sales reps. Aug 8 (yesterday) you can see the effects. Soon other banks/wirehouses will allow their reps to market BTC ETF's. Wells Fargo, Citi, UBS...coming soon.

DougMacG

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Money, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, Fed Incompetence: CTUP
« Reply #3132 on: August 09, 2024, 09:21:50 AM »
Unleash Prosperity Hotline – Weekend Edition
Issue #1079
08/09/2024 – 08/11/2024
New to the Hotline? Click here to subscribe–it's free.
https://unleashprosperitynow.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=dc8d30edd7976d2ddf9c2bf96&id=80a5b81d4b&e=17d44a0477
 
1) The Right Way to End Inflation:
...
It was Jerome Powell and his colleagues who accommodated the Biden-Harris spending spree and allowed inflation to rise to 9.1% in the summer of 2022. Sounds like they took their hands off the steering wheel. 

It was the Fed that almost sent the economy into a tailspin in late 2017 with interest rates way too high for way too long - and Trump was right to fume at this error. 

It was the economic wizards at the Fed that held rates too low for too long in 2006, 2007, and 2008 and caused the greatest financial meltdown since the Great Depression.

It was the Fed that allowed prices to nearly triple in the 1970s until Reagan and Volcker saved us.
[/b]
...
Trump's idea of allowing the White House to have a bigger voice isn't the solution either.

The solution is to take away the Fed's exalted powers by requiring them to have a price rule to set interest rates - and stop worrying about things a central bank can't control, such as unemployment, social injustice, or climate change. 

One sensible rule would be to use commodity prices as the gage. By holding commodity prices stable, we would have a stable and a strong dollar. Only in an economic emergency – declared by Congress and the President – should the Fed deviate from this rule.

There has to be a better way!


[Doug]  Yours truly said Trump should have picked Stanford Economics Professor John Taylor for Fed Chief, author of the Taylor Rule that does just what this suggests, rules based monetary policy, not just govern by whim.

Getting our fiscal house in order wouldn't hurt either!
« Last Edit: August 09, 2024, 09:25:51 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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IIRC it was the Humphrey-Hawkins Act that added employment to price stability as Fed goals.  BIG error.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2024, 12:29:42 PM by Crafty_Dog »

DougMacG

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IIRC it was the Humphry-Hawkins Act that added employment to price stability as Fed goals.  BIG error.

Yes.  Jimmy Carter era solutions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humphrey%E2%80%93Hawkins_Full_Employment_Act
The Act's sponsors embraced a form of Keynesian economics, advocating public intervention to increase economic demand and to secure full employment.

A government managed economy and cycles versus government providing a stable dollar and level playing field.  I'll take the latter.

Big mistake and no one tries to correct it.

Crafty_Dog

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Decrypto
« Reply #3135 on: August 12, 2024, 01:55:20 PM »
Once stated, this is obvious.

=====================================

What you need to know

Inflation and interest rates, unemployment figures, and the yen carry trade. There are a lot of reasons the price of Bitcoin has lagged, currently trading below $60,000. But analysts at Alliance Bernstein say the recent rising prospects of Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign are a substantial factor.

Meanwhile, Democratic voters should not be counted out in the upcoming elections—at least those who hold digital assets, according to a new poll. Some are “up for grabs” as Republicans make a stronger case for crypto.

ccp

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well if BTC was regarded as a store of value it should be skyrocketing with any prospect of Harris/Biden/Biden

BTW haven't seen Jill since she landed on the cover of vogue.

Never one to shun  the limelight she must have been ordered by the new/old regime to keep her darn face out of the media.

Yet as pointed out, who the hell is running the country - now THAT is weird


Crafty_Dog

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If the Baraq regime wins, then the legal/administrative ecosystem for BTW will be very unfavorable.

When it looked good for Trump, big institutional money was dipping its toe.

ya

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Money supply rising.


Crafty_Dog

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Coincidentally a few days ago gold was above $2500 for a couple of days.

If Harris wins, what happens to BTC and its ETFs?

Crafty_Dog

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COINBASE
« Reply #3140 on: August 15, 2024, 07:32:45 AM »
second

   
8/14/24


A week after dropping below $50,000 during a market rout, bitcoin is once again hovering around $60,000.

What’s up? It’s Coinbase Bytes

There’s never a dull moment on the blockchain. Here’s what you need to know this week:

BTC revisited $60K after last week’s selloff. Plus, VC funds are flowing into crypto startups and international markets are making regulatory strides.
What “leverage” is and why it’s related to recent market swings. We’re breaking out the dictionary to define some key trading terms — and why they matter.
This week in numbers. The revenue that the most popular decentralized exchange is generating, the loan a Japanese firm took to buy BTC, and more stats to know.

Bitcoin
$58,854.40
+6.43%

Ethereum
$2,661.99
+12.94%

Solana
$143.89
-1.35%

XRP
$0.57
-7.58%

Dogecoin
$0.10
+6.64%

Cardano
$0.33
+2.71%
Price changes are for the past week, ending on Aug 14, 2024 at 10:48 PM UTC

See the latest prices
   
MARKET BYTES

Crypto markets rebound after worst selloff in two years

Just a week after the worst crypto selloff since 2022, bitcoin recovered by more than 20%, with its price briefly surpassing $61,000 on Tuesday after hitting lows of near $49,000 last week.

Some analysts anticipate more volatility in the coming weeks as investors digest the latest inflation data (Wednesday’s consumer price index reflected the lowest inflation reading since March 2021), as well as any news that could come out of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (the annual U.S. monetary policy conference that’s a bit like Coachella for central bankers).

But with venture funds flowing into crypto startups, BTC and ETH ETFs continuing to grow, and international markets ramping up crypto experiments, there’s plenty to be optimistic about.

Here’s what you need to know.

Crypto VC funding continues to rise

Since the end of last year, there have been three straight quarters of increased venture capital investment in crypto startups. The second quarter of 2024 saw $2.7 billion in funding across 503 deals, up from $2.5 billion the quarter prior. 

At the same time, the number of deals fell by 12%, reflecting a trend toward larger deal sizes. And according to the latest PitchBook report, analysts expect “the volume and pace of investments to continue increasing throughout the year.”

Who got capital? Infrastructure startups have garnered the most attention from investors lately, with layer-1 blockchain Monad raising $225 million, the DeFi focused blockchain Berachain raising $100 million, and bitcoin restaking platform Babylon raising $70 million.

Another big winner was the onchain social protocol Farcaster, which raised $150 million in a Series A investment, bringing its total valuation above $1 billion. (Disclosure: Monad and Farcaster are Coinbase Ventures portfolio companies.)
International governments are ramping up crypto adoption

Even as the U.S. has seen bipartisan momentum on crypto legislation this year, governments in other regions continue to lead the way and are increasingly moving to create new frameworks.

Thailand and Indonesia — both top-ten nations in terms of crypto adoption according to Chainalysis — have announced new programs designed to spur innovation in their domestic crypto industries. Thailand has launched a “regulatory sandbox” to “facilitate experiments” in crypto regulations while Indonesia just released a four-year “roadmap” for growing the domestic crypto industry.

Meanwhile in Europe…  KfW, Germany’s largest state-owned development bank, is working on a program for blockchain-based digital bonds. It’s part of a larger effort from the European Central Bank (ECB) to study the use of blockchains to streamline transaction settlements.

This isn’t KfW’s first tokenization effort. Last month, the bank issued a 100 million euro ($108 million) digital bond using the Polygon network. And in a similar ECB trial in July, an Italian state-owned bank successfully issued a blockchain-based bond.
Crypto ETF inflows show “unanimous positive sentiment”

Last week — while BTC, ETH, and the broader crypto market all saw major declines — crypto investment products ended in the green. According to a new CoinShares report, that resilience is a sign that investors have nearly “unanimous positive sentiment towards the asset class.”

Bitcoin investment products (mostly made up of spot BTC ETFs) saw around $13 million of inflows last week. And even during the steepest days of the selloff, outflows from crypto ETFs totalled less than half a percent of the class’s assets under management. This represented a major sign of investor confidence, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

ETH’s time to shine? Spot Ethereum ETFs saw even more significant inflows during last week’s downturn, with BlackRock’s ETH ETF attracting $188 million of inflows and Fidelity’s ETH ETF adding another $44.3

ccp

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well I hope in 2030 , if I am still around we will not be reading posts like

is it time for BTC ETHER to shine?

ya

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Historically 90 more days of chop, 4th Q should be better. Watch the black line as to where we are in this cycle. Sorry about the large image


Crafty_Dog

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Decrypt
« Reply #3143 on: August 16, 2024, 04:49:26 AM »
Gold back over $2500.

=====================

A virtual town hall saw Democrats hoping to shift the political narrative around crypto, with Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) vowing to pass crypto legislation by the end of the year.

It comes as Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire revealed that Harris’ presidential campaign is making a “concerted effort” to reach out to the crypto industry, though Harris herself has made no statement on Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.

On the other side of the political aisle, the Trump family appears to be gearing up for a “huge” crypto announcement, with Eric Trump teasing a move into “digital real estate.”

=======================

Donald Trump continues to infuse his campaign with crypto vibes. The former president has brought Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Harold Lutnick aboard as the co-chair of his transition team in anticipation of victory in November’s election. In addition to leading one of the biggest firms on Wall Street, Lutnick is a fan of Bitcoin—and spoke at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville last month.

Trump separately revealed that he holds up to $5 million in crypto—Ethereum, specifically—in a new financial disclosure filing. He’s also brought in over $7 million from NFT licensing.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2024, 01:07:28 PM by Crafty_Dog »

ya

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Oct 2024 and March 2025 are key months. As I have been posting for a while, based on Socrates arrays. We might start going up in Oct and the first major peak would be in 1Q 2025




DougMacG

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A dollar Donald Trump left for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in the Oval Office is now worth 79 cents, still falling and we get not even an apology.  That's a lot of damn price 'guaging'.

Look at the power of compounding inflation:

The Fed inflation "Target" is 2%.  2% inflation for four years, one Presidential term makes a 9% dollar loss.  For every dollar in the economy...  Who knew?

Biden Harris think 3% is pretty good, "Inflation is down, way down!"

Do the math.  At 3% inflation, the dollar loses nearly 30% of its value in two Presidential terms, using what they call "good" as the rate.

Let's assume Harris, the first female President wins 2 terms and the "good" inflation rate of 3% continues for 8 more years, Biden Harris in 3 Presidential terms will have lost 56 cents of every dollar they started with, only 44 cents will remain.

AND THEY WANT TO TAX LONG TERM CAPITAL (INFLATIONARY) GAINS, (gains that may have been held 50 years or more) AS ORDINARY INCOME!  No inflation adjustment even though the economic term "real" means inflation adjusted.

Someone ask these economic geniuses if they know some other way to grow productivity, wages or economic activity without using capital formation?

Capital destruction cannot continue to be a winning political economic plan.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2024, 12:10:34 PM by DougMacG »

ya

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When money supply rises, BTC goes up


Crafty_Dog

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Gold at $2560 now.

===================

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bitcoin-analysts-converge-on-a-breakout-in-september-but-is-86k-possible/ar-AA1p3vZ4?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=d1bafb74e8cc4950b2c72466e526ca25&ei=77

=======================

Decrypt

Democratic supporters hoping for a big shift in how the party views crypto were dealt a blow with the release of the official party platform, ahead of this week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Long story short: It doesn’t mention Bitcoin or cryptocurrency at all.

It arrives in stark contrast to the Republican party platform from July, which explicitly mentioned crypto talking points like protecting self-custody and boosting America’s Bitcoin miners. After weeks of reports suggesting that the Kamala Harris campaign is engaging positively with the crypto industry, the crypto-less platform may be dulling such optimism.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2024, 09:19:20 AM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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Coinbase
« Reply #3149 on: August 21, 2024, 07:58:07 PM »
Crypto lags tech stocks as BTC struggles to break out of $60,000 range

For the second week in a row, bitcoin prices have been stuck around the $60,000 mark — sinking as low as $56,153 on Thursday and jumping as as high as $61,430 on Monday — with a wide range of factors tugging at markets.

One headwind, at least, seems to be resolving: Payments from long-shuttered crypto exchange Mt. Gox to former users appear to be winding down.

But now, market watchers are paying close attention to the movement of around $12 billion in crypto seized by the U.S. government. Reports of the government selling some of its holdings are “resulting in this temporary downward price pressure,” said Lightning Ventures partner Khushboo Khullar. “We expect this gap to close soon.”

Here are three market stories you should know.

Crypto has lagged rebounding tech stocks

For much of 2024, both crypto and tech stocks were on a tear, with BTC hitting a new all-time high north of $73,000 in March.

But earlier this month, both markets took a major hit following a negative U.S. jobs report and a surprise increase in Japanese interest rates. Tech stocks saw volatility rise to three-year highs, and an index of the ten biggest cryptocurrencies ran into its worst week in two years.

In the weeks since, however, stocks have recovered much of their recent losses, while crypto has struggled to regain similar momentum.

Can crypto catch up? Fears around crypto related to Mt. Gox and the U.S. government potentially diluting markets may be one factor. But late summer also historically tends to be a slow period for crypto. And market watchers are paying close attention to this week’s Jackson Hole conference — where Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking on Friday — for clues to where the economy is headed.
Norway’s vast sovereign wealth fund is bullish on crypto companies

According to a new report from crypto-analysis firm K33 Research, Norway’s $1.7 trillion sovereign wealth fund — which invests income generated by the nation’s oil reserves — has increased its exposure to crypto-related businesses like mining firms. At the same time, the fund has sharply cut back on its exposure to traditional tech stocks.

Indirect injection… Norway’s indirect exposure to BTC (for example, through shares of publicly-traded firms like mining giant Marathon Digital that are closely correlated to the crypto market) was up by 62% in the first half of 2024, according to the report. The analysis notes, however, that the trades are unlikely to be the result of a specific strategy around crypto: “Regardless, it perfectly illustrates how bitcoin is maturing as an asset and getting woven into any well-diversified portfolio.”
Bipartisan crypto consensus continues to grow

Crypto prices spiked earlier this year after Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump spoke at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference. During his speech, Trump said he would make America the “the crypto capital of the planet,” “appoint a new SEC chairman,” and that under his administration the U.S. would “keep 100% of all the bitcoin the U.S. government currently holds or acquires into the future.”

While President Joe Biden gets a D-rating from advocacy organization Stand With Crypto, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is reportedly seeking a “reset” with the industry.

What they’re saying… Last Wednesday, Democratic leaders including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and major donors including Mark Cuban attended a virtual town hall for Democratic crypto supporters. Speaking at the event, Schumer pledged to put his weight behind passing comprehensive crypto legislation by the end of the year.

“My goal when it comes to crypto regulation is this: I want to bring members on both sides of the aisle here in the Senate together,” Schumer said, “so we can pass sensible legislation that helps the United States maintain its status as the most innovative country in the world.”