Author Topic: Egypt  (Read 188122 times)

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Egypt
« Reply #350 on: July 24, 2014, 08:03:18 AM »
Egypt: Deaths in policy custody, once a spark for revolt, now met by shrugs' (Louisa Loveluck, The Christian Science Monitor)

"With little public outcry, more than 80 people have died in custody over the past year, according to independent monitor Wikithawra. In June 2010, photos of the shattered face of Khaled Said, a young man killed in police custody, laid the groundwork for mass protests in Egypt against longtime strongman Hosni Mubarak. His downfall in February 2011 was a landmark in the so-called Arab Spring, which still has aftershocks roiling the region. 

Last July, Egypt's military ousted the country's first elected president, Mohamed Morsi, and launched an aggressive crackdown against dissidents. Egypt's police are back to the most brutal practices of the Mubarak era, and deaths in custody have surged once again. But this time popular anger is muted, as many swing behind a repressive security state as a bulwark against the chaos and sectarianism that came in Mubarak's wake, particularly after police retreated from the streets."

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Egypt
« Reply #351 on: August 20, 2014, 03:55:05 PM »


Click here to watch: New Group in Cairo Threatens to Carry Out Terror Attacks

A video has surfaced of a new terrorist group in Cairo that has threatened to carry out terrorist attacks in Egypt. The group, which calls itself the "Helwan Brigades", released a video in which its members are seen holding weapons and saying, "Our message to [the Interior Ministry] is that you are our targets." “We are fed up with the peacefulness of the Muslim Brotherhood. We are no Muslim Brotherhood. We are fed up with their peaceful demonstrations. When we go on demonstrations, blood is shed, women are raped, and property is stolen,” said one member of the group. “This is a warning to the Interior Ministry in south Cairo. This is what we have throughout south Cairo. Our message to you is that you are our targets because of what you have done to us. You did not spare us. You did not care that we are your brothers. You have shed blood, raped women, and even got the women of Muslims pregnant,” he threatened. “None of you opposed this or was held accountable, because you support a coup. Your army is the Camp David army, which for 60 years [fought] the Muslims, but did not shoot a single bullet at the Jews,” he charged.

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Egypt has been plagued by unrest and terrorist attacks for several years, and there has been an increase in attacks since the ouster last year of Muslim Brotherhood president Mohammed Morsi. Most of the terrorist attacks have been claimed by the Al-Qaeda-inspired Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis. Among the attacks claimed by the group was the assassination of a top Egyptian police general, who was gunned down as he left his home in a west Cairo neighborhood, and a bus bombing on a tour bus filled with South Korean tourists in the Sinai. The group has also claimed responsibility for several rocket attacks that targeted the Israeli resort city of Eilat. Egypt’s government has said there is a direct link between the Muslim Brotherhood and Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, and on this basis blacklisted the Brotherhood as a terror organization.


Crafty_Dog

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Egypt vs. Hamas
« Reply #353 on: October 29, 2014, 10:57:16 AM »


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29811722?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=*Mideast%20Brief&utm_campaign=2014_The%20Middle%20East%20Daily_10.29.14

Crafty_Dog

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Imagine the outcry if Israel did this: Egypt expels Gazans
« Reply #354 on: November 02, 2014, 10:56:37 AM »


Click here to watch: Egypt Expels Gazans While the World sits Silently

Arab residents of Gaza were rounded up by armed soldiers and forced to flee their homes, which were promptly exploded in impressive plumes of dust and sand - but the soldiers were Egyptian, and there has been no international criticism of the buffer zone Egypt is establishing by force on the Gaza side of the Sinai border. In the buffer zone plan, Egypt is seizing and evacuating all homes and farmland up to 500 meters (over 1,640 feet) into Gaza, all along the 13 kilometer (over eight mile) border. Additionally, a channel with a depth and width of 20 meters (over 65 feet) will be dug along the Gaza border. The expulsion is in fact being sped up, after the Egyptian army said Saturday night it discovered hundreds more smuggling tunnels into Sinai from satellite imagery, reports the Arabic-language Sky News as cited by Yedioth Aharonoth. As of last week, 200 families living in the buffer zone area defined by Egypt had accepted a financial package to compensate their abandonment of their homes, but 680 more families were still refusing. Video uploaded on Saturday shows the expulsion in full steam, as Egyptian tanks and helicopters can be seen over a Gazan town. Armed soldiers go house-by-house and residents flee with all of their belongings loaded into cars, before cranes knock down their homes and explosions rend the air.

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The Egyptian move follows two lethal terror attacks two weeks ago on Friday, in which at least 31 Egyptian soldiers were killed in El-Arish in the Sinai by a suicide bombing and a shooting attack. Egyptian sources revealed last week that Hamas terrorists had provided the weapons for the attack through one of its smuggling tunnels under the border to Sinai; the attacks were conducted by Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis jihadists, members of a group sympathetic to Islamic State (ISIS). Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi justified the expulsion by citing the attacks, which led him to declare Sinai in a state of emergency, and insisting "Egypt is fighting a war of existence." Despite the fact that Hamas terrorists aim to destroy Israel, IDF actions to defend Israel from attack such as in the recent counter-terror operation have been met with a tidal wave of international criticism - the Egyptian expulsion of Gaza has been met with no such condemnation so far. Egypt has been cracking down on Hamas, in recent months banning the Muslim Brotherhood offshoot and implementing a siege on Gaza. While Egypt has deployed troops to the Sinai to fight the rampant jihadist terrorism in the region in coordination with Israel, concerns remain that the Egyptian disarmament of the peninsula as part of its peace agreement with Israel may be in danger of collapsing altogether, posing a potential military threat to Israel.

Source: Arutz Sheva



Crafty_Dog

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Re: Egypt
« Reply #355 on: January 06, 2015, 07:15:37 AM »


•  A Libyan tribal leader said 13 Egyptian Coptic Christians were held by people smugglers, not abducted, and that they have been freed, however Egypt’s Foreign Ministry denies the report.


•  Masked gunmen killed two Egyptian policemen guarding a Coptic Christian church in Minya Tuesday, a day ahead of Coptic Christmas celebrations.

Crafty_Dog

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POTH: Things getting out of hand in Sinai
« Reply #356 on: January 30, 2015, 10:01:36 AM »
CAIRO — A series of simultaneous bombings targeting security facilities in the Sinai killed at least 26 people Thursday night, prompting fears that the Egyptian government’s campaign of home demolitions, curfews and sweeping arrests has failed to choke off a budding insurgency there.

The wave of bombings was the first major outburst of violence since the main Islamist militant group operating in the Sinai pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in November.

Through a Twitter account linked to the group, now known as the Sinai Province of the Islamic State, it claimed responsibility for the attacks on more than a half-dozen locations.

The assault, involving nearly simultaneous bombings in several places around the cities of Arish and Rafah, was the most complicated and widely coordinated terrorist attack in Egypt in years. It was also the deadliest attack in the Sinai since a multistage assault on a military checkpoint killed at least 31 people on the night of Oct. 24.

Indeed, the ambition of the attack suggested either that the Sinai militants may be following the advice, or the example, of the Islamic State extremist group, or perhaps that the Sinai outfit sought a spectacular attack to advertise its new affiliation.

Residents of the Sinai and the Egyptian state news media said that attackers had deployed multiple car bombs and mortars against several government targets: the North Sinai security headquarters in Arish, the provincial capital; a nearby army base; a hotel used by the police; a security camp near the border town of Rafah; and several checkpoints.

Al Ahram, Egypt’s flagship state newspaper, reported that its office in Arish had also been struck, although apparently only because it was near the security headquarters and not because it was a target.

Health officials said the bombings had injured more than 100 people, according to the state news media. “This means that the military does not control Sinai, as it claims,” said Khalil al-Anani, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies who studies extremism. “The insurgency is getting stronger and stronger, and the government’s strategy is a failure.”

Borhan el-Beek, a resident of Arish, said his home was about 400 yards from a complex of security buildings that were attacked in four places about 7:30 p.m., not long after the start of the nightly curfew.

“Now there are soldiers and patrols filling the streets,” he said, “and I can see from my balcony there are tanks making the rounds.”

The army “has been fighting terrorism for a year and a half, and how are the percentages? Is it increasing or decreasing?” he asked. “In the North Sinai, we just don’t know.”

Islamist militants have long found a haven in the rugged and loosely governed Sinai Peninsula, capitalizing on its marginalization and the widespread resentment of the police. In the 18 months since the military ousted President Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, however, the Sinai has become the center of a campaign of retaliatory attacks on Egyptian security forces that has become the most significant challenge to rule of Mr. Morsi’s successor, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

In an effort to combat the attacks, Mr. Sisi, a former defense minister, has ordered a virtual military occupation of the region. Helicopter gunships have destroyed homes and buildings believed to conceal militants. Residents describe large networks of police informants and widespread arrests.

After the embarrassment of the Oct. 24 attack, security forces announced the forced evacuation and demolition of more than 800 homes within about a kilometer of the border with the Gaza Strip and Israel. That ultimately led to the razing of much of the border town of Rafah.

The authorities said that was necessary to seal off tunnels under the border with Gaza, which they said had been used by militants to attack and escape.

But the scale of Thursday’s assault indicates that the militants have retained sufficient ability to operate despite the crackdown.

“They have displaced a lot of people, and that undoubtedly creates a lot of resentment and increases the atmosphere of permissiveness for this kind of violence,” said Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution and a former deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs.

“It is clear that this extremely coercive approach is not working,” she added.

Spokesmen for the military and the police did not respond to requests for comment. Mr. Beek, the resident of Arish, said he wished the Sinai could return to the time before the surge in violence. He lamented the forced evacuations, strict curfews and constrictions on the ability to enter or leave the Sinai.

“More increases in the pressure on the citizens of Sinai, making them feel really like seventh- and eighth-rate citizens,” he said.


G M

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Crafty_Dog

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Re: Egypt
« Reply #359 on: February 16, 2015, 07:28:51 AM »
A powerful and symbolic statement with ACTION by Al Sisi that I am sure the Coptics will note.

G M

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Re: Egypt
« Reply #360 on: February 16, 2015, 07:47:43 AM »
A powerful and symbolic statement with ACTION by Al Sisi that I am sure the Coptics will note.


Well, I bet the U.S. State Department is working on a heck of a Twitter hashtag that will make ISIS really regret their junior varsity actions.

DougMacG

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Re: Egypt hits ISIS in Libya after 21 Coptics decapitated
« Reply #361 on: February 16, 2015, 04:31:19 PM »
Wait, I thought Obama gave a speech in Cairo that was going to make all this go away.

Funny what difference 6 years can make.  More than half the country back then hoped that was true.  Now it is known that even air strikes won't stop this enemy. 

You earn peace in one of two ways, defeat or deter your enemies.  It is too late for this President to establish any deterrence and he seeks 'authorization' to prevent us from defeating anyone.  After losing the House, the Senate, 64% of the Governorships and 70% of the state legislative chambers, he is now in the process of guaranteeing the election of a Hawk to succeed him.

G M

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Re: Egypt
« Reply #362 on: February 16, 2015, 05:42:24 PM »
Funny how Jordan and now Egypt have leaders who have stepped up to face this enemy and yet we have an empty chair. Eastwood was very prescient.

Then again, Obama's golf balls aren't going to hit themselves...

c - Shadow Dog

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Re: Egypt
« Reply #363 on: February 16, 2015, 07:28:26 PM »
GM,

On the Point of Jordan and Egypt stepping up to the plate.  I like that regional powers are taking care of their own business on a local level. They don't need us to be the police man any longer.

TC

ccp

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The peacenik who went after Nixon is now the hawk.
« Reply #364 on: February 17, 2015, 05:24:04 AM »
"he is now in the process of guaranteeing the election of a Hawk to succeed him."

Step right up the first female President:  Hillary.   "Break all those glass ceilings".  The Hawkster in waiting.   :wink:  Warrior woman.   Don't mess with this Amazon.

And that is partly what the Warren crowd is about.   She is a "war monger".  Poor code stink.  They won't know what to do.   We know they won't vote Republican.

G M

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Re: Egypt
« Reply #365 on: February 17, 2015, 06:01:42 PM »
GM,

On the Point of Jordan and Egypt stepping up to the plate.  I like that regional powers are taking care of their own business on a local level. They don't need us to be the police man any longer.

TC

Yes, but they lack the ability to destroy ISIS. We are they only ones with the capacity to take them out.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Egypt
« Reply #366 on: February 17, 2015, 07:37:38 PM »
ISIS has how many troops right now?  40,000? Scattered over how much terrain?

How many does Egypt have?  How many does Jordan have?  House of Saud?  UAE?  Kuwait?


Crafty_Dog

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Egypt moving troops from Sinai to western border
« Reply #368 on: March 06, 2015, 07:21:50 AM »
In recent weeks, Egypt has begun diluting its forces stationed along the Philadelphi route on its border with Gaza, Israeli defense officials warned Thursday. This move has prompted fear among defense officials that a terrorist takeover could occur in Sinai and violence against Israel would resume. Egyptian president Abdel Fatah al-Sisi delighted the Israeli defense establishment when, in recent months, he allocated substantial resources to fight terrorism in Sinai - particularly, the destruction of smuggling tunnels between Sinai and Gaza as part of the construction of a buffer zone. However, with the threat of an Islamic State (ISIS) presence in Libya on its western border, Egypt has started transferring large numbers of forces there.

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"Egypt is working according to its priorities, and at this time the Libyan border is more threatening," a defense official told Walla! News. "It is a border of more than a thousand kilometers being penetrated by ISIS terrorists, raging across Libya and murdering Egyptian citizens," he explained. "The transition of special forces from Sinai to the border with Libya will harm Egypt's pressure on terrorist organizations that may act against Israel," the official warned. While Israel's cooperation with Cairo in the fight against terrorism has tightened and been very effective in the past year, there is still cause for concern in Israel. In light of recent tensions with Washington, Cairo has begun to get closer with Russia, which could play against Israel in the future.

Crafty_Dog

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Al Sisi of Egypt
« Reply #369 on: March 21, 2015, 08:59:48 PM »
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-weekend-interview-islams-improbable-reformer-1426889862?mod=trending_now_4
Islam’s Improbable Reformer
‘We are keen on a strategic relationship with the U.S. above everything else,’ says Egypt’s new president. ‘And we will never turn our backs on you—even if you turn your backs on us.’
ENLARGE
Photo: Zina Saunders
By
Bret Stephens
March 20, 2015 6:17 p.m. ET
168 COMMENTS

Cairo

When then-Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi appointed a little-known general named Abdel Fattah Al Sisi to be his new defense minister in August 2012, rumors swirled that the officer was chosen for his sympathy with the teachings of Mr. Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood. One telltale sign, people said, was the zabiba on the general’s forehead—the darkened patch of skin that is the result of frequent and fervent prayer.

A pious Muslim must surely also be a political Islamist—or so Mr. Morsi apparently assumed. But the general would soon give the world a lesson in the difference between religious devotion and radicalism.

“There are misconceptions and misperceptions about the real Islam,” now-President Sisi tells me during a two-hour interview in his ornate, century-old presidential palace in Heliopolis. “Religion is guarded by its spirit, by its core, not by human beings. Human beings only take the core and deviate it to the right or left.”

Does he mean to say, I ask, that members of the Muslim Brotherhood are bad Muslims? “It’s the ideology, the ideas,” he replies.

“The real Islamic religion grants absolute freedom for the whole people to believe or not believe. Never does Islam dictate to kill others because they do not believe in Islam. Never does it dictate that [Muslims] have the right to dictate [their beliefs] to the whole world. Never does Islam say that only Muslims will go to paradise and others go to hell.”

Jabbing his right finger in the air for emphasis, he adds: “We are not gods on earth, and we do not have this right to act in the name of Allah.”
***

When Mr. Sisi took power in July 2013, following street protests against Mr. Morsi by an estimated 30 million Egyptians, it wasn’t obvious that he would emerge as perhaps the world’s most significant advocate for Islamic moderation and reform. His personal piety aside, Mr. Sisi seemed to be a typical Egyptian military figure. Unflattering comparisons were made to Hosni Mubarak, a former air force general and Egypt’s president-for-life until his downfall in 2011.

The similarities are misleading. Mr. Mubarak came of age in the ideological anti-colonialist days of Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, trained in the Soviet Union, and led the air campaign against Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Anwar Sadat elevated him to the vice presidency in 1975 as a colorless second-fiddle, his very lack of imagination being an asset to Sadat. He became president only due to Sadat’s assassination six years later.

Mr. Sisi, now 60, came of age in a very different era. When he graduated from the Military Academy, in 1977, Egypt was a close American ally on the cusp of making peace with Israel. Rather than being packed off to Russia, he headed for military training in Texas and later the infantry course at Fort Benning, Ga. He returned for another extended stay in the U.S. in 2005 at the Army War College in Carlisle, Pa.

Recalling the two visits, he notes the difference. “The U.S. had been a community that had been living in peace and security. Before 9/11, even the military bases were open. There was almost no difference between civilian life and life on a military base. By 2005, I could feel the tightening.”

The remark is intended to underscore to a visiting American journalist his deep sympathy with and admiration for the U.S. He also goes out of his way to stress that he has no intention of altering the pro-American tilt of Egyptian foreign policy, despite suggestions that he is flirting with Russia’s Vladimir Putin for potential arms purchases and the construction of Egypt’s first nuclear power plant.

“A country like Egypt will never be mischievous with bilateral relations” with America, he insists. “We will never act foolishly.” When I ask about the delivery of F-16 fighters to Egypt—suspended by the U.S. after Mr. Morsi’s overthrow, and now pending a decision by President Obama—he all-but dismisses the matter.

“You can never reduce our relations with the U.S. to matters of weapons systems. We are keen on a strategic relationship with the U.S. above everything else. And we will never turn our backs on you—even if you turn your backs on us.”

There is also a deeper purpose to Mr. Sisi’s pro-American entreaties and his comments on 9/11: He wants to remind his critics of the trade-off every country strikes between security and civil liberties.

It’s a point he returns to when I note the anger and disappointment that so many Egyptian liberals—many of whom had backed him in 2013—now feel. New laws that tightly restrict street protests recall the Mubarak era. Last June several Al Jazeera journalists, including Australian reporter Peter Greste, were sentenced to lengthy prison terms on dubious charges of reporting that was “damaging to national security,” though they have since been released. The Muslim Brotherhood has been banned, Mr. Morsi is in prison and on trial, and Egyptian courts have passed death sentences on hundreds of alleged Islamists, albeit mostly in absentia.

“My message to liberals is that I am very keen to meet their expectations,” Mr. Sisi rejoins. “But the situation in Egypt is overwhelmed.” He laments the Al Jazeera arrests, noting that the incident damaged Egypt’s reputation even as thousands of international correspondents “are working very freely in this country.”

Later, while addressing a question about the Egyptian economy, he offers a franker assessment. “In the last four years our internal debt doubled to $300 billion. Do not separate my answer to the question regarding disappointed liberals. Their country needs to survive. We don’t have the luxury to fight and feud and take all our time discussing issues like that. A country needs security and order for its mere existence. If the world can provide support I will let people demonstrate in the streets day and night.”

Sensing my skepticism, he adds: “You can’t imagine that as an American. You are speaking the language of a country that is at the top of progress: cultural, financial, political, civilizational—it’s all there in the U.S.” But if American standards were imposed on Egypt, he adds, it would do his country no favors.

“I talk about U.S. values of democracy and freedom. They should be honored. But they need the atmosphere where those values can be nurtured. If we can bring prosperity we can safeguard those values not just in words.”

All of this seems in keeping with Mr. Sisi’s military upbringing and reminds me of Pervez Musharraf, the former Pakistani general turned president. But the comparison is fundamentally inapt. Under Mr. Musharraf, Pakistan continued to make opportunistic deals with terrorists while giving safe harbor to leaders of the Afghan Taliban.

By contrast, it’s impossible to doubt the seriousness of Mr. Sisi’s opposition to Islamic extremism, or his aversion to exporting instability. In late February he ordered the bombing of Islamic State targets in neighboring Libya after ISIS decapitated 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians. Egypt’s security cooperation with Israel has never been closer, and Mr. Sisi has moved aggressively to close the tunnels beneath Egypt’s border with Gaza, through which Hamas has obtained its weapons.

Later this month, Mr. Sisi will host an Arab League summit, the centerpiece of which will be a joint Arab antiterrorism task force. He says he won’t put Egyptian boots on the ground to fight ISIS in Iraq, which he says is a job for Iraqis with U.S. help. And he takes care to avoid mentioning Iran’s regional ambitions or saying anything critical of its nuclear negotiations, which he says he supports while adding that “I understand the concern of the Israelis.”

But he does say the new force is needed “to preserve what is left” of the stable Arab world. In particular, he stresses that “there shouldn’t be any arrangements at the expense of the Gulf states. The security of the Gulf states is indispensable for the security of Egypt.”

He also decries the Western habit of intervening militarily and then failing to take account of the consequences. “Look, NATO had a mission in Libya and its mission was not accomplished,” he says. The U.N. continues to impose an arms embargo on Libya that adversely affects the legitimate, non-Islamist government based in Tobruk while “armed militias obtain an unstoppable flow of arms and munitions.”

“I wasn’t with the Gadhafi regime,” he says, “but there is a difference between taking an action and being aware of what that action will bring about. The risks of extremism and terrorism weren’t clear in the minds of the U.S. and Europe. It is really dangerous if countries lose control because extremists will cause them problems beyond their imagination.” The same lesson, he emphasizes, applies to the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

But Mr. Sisi is not a dogmatic critic of muscular U.S. involvement in the Middle East. Pondering the prospect of a broad U.S. retreat from the region, Mr. Sisi sounds like the most enthusiastic proponent of Pax Americana.

“The United States has the strength, and with might comes responsibility,” he says. “That is why it is committed and has responsibilities toward the whole world. It is not reasonable or acceptable that with all that might the United States will not be committed and have responsibilities toward the Middle East. The Middle East is passing through the most difficult and critical time and this will only entail more involvement, not less.”

Meantime, Mr. Sisi sees it as his personal mission to save Egypt, even as he insists he has no intention of becoming another president-for-life. When I ask him to name Mr. Mubarak’s biggest mistake, he says simply: “He stayed in power for a long time.”

A day before our interview, I watched him close an investment conference in the resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh, where he celebrated General Electric’s decision to invest to ease Egypt’s chronic power outages. He describes his economic philosophy as “the need to encourage the business community to come here and invest.” He constantly stresses the imperative of acting swiftly: “The magnitude of the effort needed to secure the needs of 90 million people is huge and beyond any one man’s effort.”

He’s also aware that the most important work will take time. In January Mr. Sisi went before the religious clerics of Cairo’s Al-Azhar university to demand a “revolution” in Islam. The follow-through won’t be easy. “The most difficult thing to do is change a religious rhetoric and bring a shift in how people are used to their religion,” he says. “Don’t imagine the results will be seen in a few months or years. Radical misconceptions [about Islam] were instilled 100 years ago. Now we can see the results.”

That’s not to say he doesn’t think it’s doable. “Popular sympathy with the idea of religion was dominating the whole scene in Egypt for years in the past. This does not exist anymore. This is a change I consider strategic. Because what brought the Muslim Brotherhood to power was Egyptian sympathy with the concept of religion. Egyptians believed that the Muslim Brothers were advocates of the real Islam. The past three years have been a critical test to those people who were promoting religious ideas. Egyptians experienced it totally and said these people do not deserve sympathy and we will not allow it.”

Throughout our interview, Mr. Sisi has been speaking in Arabic through an interpreter. But after delivering this point, he said in colloquial American English, “You got that?”

Mr. Stephens writes the Journal’s “Global View” column.
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« Last Edit: March 21, 2015, 09:03:30 PM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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Morsi sentenced to death
« Reply #370 on: May 16, 2015, 10:24:08 AM »
CAIRO—An Egyptian court on Saturday sentenced ousted President Mohammed Morsi to death for breaking out of prison during the height of the nation’s uprising in 2011, the latest blow against Islamist critics of the government.

The decision is the harshest of multiple sentences given to Mr. Morsi and underscores the breadth of current President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi’s crackdown on his chief political opponents, the Muslim Brotherhood.  The court’s preliminary verdict Saturday is subject to review by the Grand Mufti, Egypt’s highest religious authority, whose opinion isn’t legally binding but is traditionally adopted by the court.  A final verdict based his opinion will be delivered June 2 but will be open to appeals, which can take years in Egypt’s clogged judicial system.

Mr. Morsi has already been sentenced to 20 years in prison last month in a separate case in which he was found guilty of fomenting violence during a series of protests in 2012 that dogged his year in office.

The former Egyptian president was among 106 members and leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood sentenced to death on Saturday, including the group’s spiritual guide Mohammed Badie and prominent Islamic scholar, Youssef al-Qaradawi, who is based in Qatar.


The decision—broadcast on state television as Mr. Morsi and some of co-defendants smiled defiantly from inside the caged dock used to hold the accused—was received quietly in Egypt. However, authorities said it may have inspired a violent response in the restive Sinai Peninsula where security forces have struggled to contain a low-level Islamist insurgency.

Hours after the verdict was delivered, unknown gunmen attacked a vehicle carrying several judges and aides in the northern Sinai town of al-Arish, killing three judges, a driver, and wounding three others, according to Egypt’s state news agency.  There was no immediate claim of responsibility, but the state news agency quotes unnamed security officials saying the attack may have been retaliation for the verdict against Mr. Morsi.

Saturday’s decision is latest in a series of mass trials that have led to death penalty verdicts against the leadership and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood. Human rights organizations have criticized the mass sentences, while some Western governments, including the U.S., have expressed concern over the apparent lack of due process. 
If Saturday’s verdicts are confirmed, the entire top leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood will be facing either life in prison or execution stemming from trials that began under Mr. Sisi’s leadership. The sentences represent the most comprehensive crackdown of the group since the modern Egyptian state was founded.

“The death penalty has become the favorite tool for the Egyptian authorities to purge the political opposition,” Amnesty International said in a statement on Saturday, calling Mr. Morsi’s trial “grossly unfair.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a close ally of Mr. Morsi, slammed the Egyptian court’s decision and criticized western governments for not speaking forcibly enough against the crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood.

“Unfortunately, they decided to execute Morsi. Egypt is turning to ancient Egypt,” Mr. Erdogan said, highlighting that Cairo could hang a leader elected democratically with 52% support.

Amr Darrag, a former cabinet minister under Mr. Morsi, said the verdict marks “one of the darkest days in Egypt’s history” in a statement from Turkey, where he remains in exile.

The defendants were accused of breaking out of Wadi al Natroun prison days after the 2011 uprising first began. He and other senior leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood had been ordered jailed by then president Hosni Mubarak , whose rule was being undermined by massive street protests that resulted in his resignation 18 days after they began on Jan. 25, 2011.  Two days after being detained, the prison was raided by armed groups who clashed with jail guards, ultimately beating the authorities into retreat.

In a phone call to Al Jazeera Arabic broadcast on the day of his escape, a panicked Mr. Morsi is heard saying he and his Muslim Brotherhood colleagues were freed by unknown men in both prison uniforms and in civilian clothes, and urged authorities to instruct him on how to proceed, vowing not to leave the prison without official permission.  In 2013, months after he had been deposed and arrested by Mr. Sisi, prosecutors charged Mr. Morsi with breaking out of the prison with the help of Hamas operatives they alleged had infiltrated Egypt during the chaotic uprising.

Mr. Al Sisi later became president after winning in a landslide against a weak opponent in 2014.

In a statement, Hamas said some of the defendants found guilty in the case are members of their organization who had died before the 2011 uprising or who were serving lengthy prison sentences in Israel.

Critics of the regime have drawn comparisons between Mr. Morsi’s legal fate and that of Mr. Mubarak who has had nearly every legal case against him dismissed or has resulted in acquittal. On May 9, Mr. Mubarak was sentenced to three years in a retrial for corruption, but legal experts said he is unlikely to serve any of the time in prison owing to several years of detention—mostly in a military hospital—since his ouster in 2011.

—Emre Peker in Istanbul contributed to this article.

Write to Tamer El-Ghobashy at tamer.el-ghobashy@wsj.com

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Al Sis reinvents himself as bulwark against terrorism
« Reply #371 on: May 18, 2015, 11:17:39 AM »
Egypt’s Leader Reinvents Himself as Bulwark Against Terrorism
Abdel Fatah Al Sisi, criticized for cracking down on his Islamist opponents, is embraced for his stand against Islamic State
By Tamer El-Ghobashy
May 18, 2015 5:30 a.m. ET
WSJ

CAIRO—The specter of an expanding Islamic State has alarmed leaders across the Middle East. But for Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, that threat has become an opportunity to transform himself from an international outcast to an ally in the regional war against terrorism.

Since Mr. Sisi came to power in a coup two years ago, his government has criminalized street protests, sentenced hundreds to death in mass trials and, according to the Egyptian Center for Economic and Social Rights, imprisoned some 40,000 political opponents and their supporters, drawing widespread international criticism.

He also has declared his main political opponent, the Muslim Brotherhood, a terrorist organization, despite its explicit denunciation of violence, putting the popular Islamist organization in the same category as avowedly militant groups such as Islamic State and al Qaeda.

On Saturday, a special court set up in the police academy in Cairo sentenced to death ousted President Mohammed Morsi, the former Muslim Brotherhood leader, and more than 100 other leaders and members of the organization, underscoring the breadth of Mr. Sisi’s crackdown.
Egypt's deposed President Mohammed Morsi in a defendant's cage as a judge sentences him and more than 100 others to death on Saturday. ENLARGE
Egypt's deposed President Mohammed Morsi in a defendant's cage as a judge sentences him and more than 100 others to death on Saturday. Illustration: Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The Egyptian leader’s tough response to the emergence of Islamic State coupled with Iran’s expanding sway in traditionally Sunni Muslim spheres of influence have boosted the 60-year-old retired army general’s stock in the region as a bulwark against extremism.

At the same time, his declarations about the need to “revolutionize” Islam to increase tolerance in the Arab and Islamic world have helped his image in Washington, opening the way for the Obama administration’s cautious embrace of the Egyptian leader.

The administration lifted a ban on arms sales to Cairo in March and promised to restore a $1.3 billion aid package, an annual commitment set forth in the 1979 Israel-Egypt peace treaty.

The aid was withheld after Mr. Morsi—Egypt’s first freely elected president—was deposed in a military coup led by Mr. Sisi in 2013, while he was still defense minister and head of the armed forces.

In renewing normal aid ties, National Security Council spokeswoman Bernadette Meehan said, the U.S. would seek to balance vital U.S.-Egyptian security ties with meaningful Egyptian political overhauls.

A State Department official on Sunday said the mass death sentences were deeply troubling.

    ‘‘Sisi played this card very well by convincing the administration that the main objective is to fight terrorism. A common enemy brings the countries together again.’’
    —Khalil al-Anani, Middle East scholar

“We have consistently spoken out against the practice of mass trials and sentences, which are conducted in a manner that is inconsistent with Egypt’s international obligations and the rule of law,” the official said.

Despite criticism of his methods, Mr. Sisi’s strategy of emphasizing the threat of terrorism, while selectively committing resources to fighting it, has paid off, said Khalil al-Anani, a Middle East scholar at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.

“Sisi played this card very well by convincing the administration that the main objective is to fight terrorism,” Mr. Anani said. “A common enemy brings the countries together again.”

The cautious U.S. embrace of Mr. Sisi hasn’t appeared to markedly shift perceptions of him in Egypt.

To his supporters, he has brought welcome stability to Egypt following the upheavals of the Arab Spring, the ouster of longtime ruler Hosni Mubarak and the brief, turbulent presidential tenure of Mr. Morsi.

The death sentence imposed on Mr. Morsi on Saturday is subject to review by the Grand Mufti, Egypt’s highest religious authority, whose opinion isn’t legally binding but is often adopted by the court. A final verdict will be delivered June 2 but will be open to appeal, which can take years in Egypt’s clogged judicial system.

The former Egyptian president was among 106 members and leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood sentenced to death on Saturday, including the group’s spiritual guide, Mohammed Badie, and prominent Islamic scholar, Youssef al-Qaradawi, who is based in Qatar.

If the verdicts are confirmed, the entire top leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood will be facing either life in prison or execution stemming from trials that began under Mr. Sisi’s leadership. The sentences represent the most comprehensive crackdown on the group since the modern Egyptian state was founded.

In statements released from the group’s media offices overseas, the Brotherhood condemned the judge’s decision, calling it illegitimate and politically driven.

Amnesty International called the trial “grossly unfair,” saying “the death penalty has become the favorite tool for the Egyptian authorities to purge the political opposition.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a close ally of Mr. Morsi, slammed the court’s decision and criticized Western governments for not speaking forcibly enough against the crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood.

The defendants were accused of breaking out of Wadi al Natroun prison days after the 2011 uprising began. Mr. Morsi and other senior leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood had been ordered jailed by then-President Mubarak, whose rule was being undermined by massive street protests that resulted in his resignation 18 days after they began on Jan. 25, 2011.

Two days after being detained, the prison was raided by armed groups who clashed with jail guards, beating the authorities into retreat.

In a phone call to Al Jazeera Arabic broadcast on the day of his escape, a panicked Mr. Morsi is heard saying he and his Muslim Brotherhood colleagues were freed by unknown men in both prison uniforms and in civilian clothes, and urged authorities to instruct him on how to proceed, vowing not to leave the prison without official permission.

For his domestic critics, the warming U.S. attitude to Mr. Sisi has potentially damaging consequences for peaceful opponents of his government. They worry that it will give Egyptian authorities further license to treat the nonviolent opposition as harshly as those armed militants who have carried out sporadic attacks against police and security forces in Egypt.

“We are as exposed as we’ve ever been without even Western rhetoric suggesting that human rights in Egypt are a major concern,” said one activist whose colleagues are serving prison terms.

Hazem Abdel Azim, a top official in the Egyptian leader’s presidential campaign last year, announced on April 27 that he was withdrawing from politics indefinitely.

“I feel the political climate isn’t less dangerous than Mubarak’s days if one speaks freely,” Mr. Abdel Azim tweeted, referring to the long periods of authoritarian rule by the ex-Egyptian president. He didn’t respond to requests for further comment.

In Washington, congressional supporters of the Egyptian leader said he is a mainstay of international efforts to combat terrorism.

“They still have a way to go with their democratic reforms, but America needs strong allies like Egypt in the region,” said Rep. Mac Thornberry (R., Texas), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.

Other members of Congress, however, voiced doubts over the wisdom of renewed arms sales to Mr. Sisi’s government.

Sen. Patrick Leahy (D., Vt.), co-author of a provision in the 2015 appropriations bill that now links continued U.S. military aid for Egypt to its progress on improving human rights and democracy, said this isn’t the time to hand Egypt a blank check.

“The United States should defend principles of democracy and human rights, and President al-Sisi’s government has systematically and flagrantly trampled on both,” Mr. Leahy said in an email.

Mr. Anani, the Middle East scholar, said he believes there is a long-term cost for both Egypt and its allies in making the military campaign against Islamist militants their central focus.

“It is back to the old days where security trumps everything else,” he said. “It is a shortsighted policy that can become counterproductive, increasing the kind of extremism that has created this regional instability.”

—Dahlia Kholaif in Cairo
contributed to this article.

Write to Tamer El-Ghobashy at tamer.el-ghobashy@wsj.com

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POTH: Report on Egypt
« Reply #374 on: June 08, 2015, 02:02:31 AM »
CAIRO — Egypt is moving away from democracy, stifling freedom of expression, arresting thousands for political dissent and failing to hold the security forces accountable for “arbitrary or unlawful killings,” the Obama administration has determined in a formal report to Congress.

The administration concludes in the same report that Egypt is nevertheless too important to national security to end the roughly $1.5 billion a year it receives in American aid, most of it military. But after making that conclusion, the report proceeds to recite a discordant litany of the Egyptian government’s abuses and failings, apparently seeking to stop just short of the kind of embrace Washington once gave the strongman Hosni Mubarak.


Quietly submitted to Congress on May 12 without public announcement, the report captures the awkwardness of Washington’s rapidly shifting views of Egypt: first backing President Mubarak, then the 2011 revolt that ousted him, and now rebuilding ties with a new strongman, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

Western diplomats are increasingly seeking to make the best of their relationship with Mr. Sisi, the former general who led a military takeover here two years ago, deposing the elected president, even amid reports that his government is tightening its crackdown on dissent.

“America is making the same mistake it did when they were supporting Hosni Mubarak,” said Mohamed Lotfy, a human rights advocate who was stopped last week at Cairo’s airport to prevent him from traveling to Germany during a visit there by Mr. Sisi.

By crushing hopes for peaceful and democratic political change, “Sisi is creating a new generation of terrorists, and exporting them to Syria and Iraq,” Mr. Lotfy said, while the United States has damaged its credibility in the region by “contradicting its values — or at least the values that it tries to export in speeches.”

Activists suggest that the Egyptian government may be cracking down now in anticipation of a call for a general strike by one of the activist groups that kicked off the revolt against Mr. Mubarak in 2011. It may also be preparing for potential protests at the end of the month, on the second anniversary of Mr. Sisi’s ouster of President Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood.


In recent weeks, the Egyptian police have detained at least three leaders of the left-leaning April 6 group, which has tried to call for the general strike on Thursday, and rights groups say several other activists have been rounded up or disappeared as well.

Mr. Lotfy said his group, the Egyptian Commission for Rights and Freedoms, was tracking the disappearances of 10 people, and Mona Seif, another activist, said she had confirmed 17.

Magdy Ashour, an Islamist activist who was featured in a documentary about the 2011 uprising called “The Square,” has also been detained, according to news reports.

Negad el-Borai, a prominent human rights lawyer, said he expected to be arrested as well, having been called in three times in recent weeks for interrogation about his opposition to torture and his previous work for human rights groups.

“Because of my past activities, I think they want revenge,” Mr. Borai said in an interview. “It will be a very hard summer.”

A talk show host, Reem Magued, was recently removed from the airwaves, and she said in an interview on another television program that her network, OnTV, had canceled her show because of government pressure. Its executives told her “there are pressures from a ‘sovereign institution’ ” — an intelligence agency, she said.

There have been efforts to suppress labor actions as well. On Sunday, a new video emerged showing soldiers firing into a crowd of workers at a military-owned cement factory in Sinai, apparently in an attempt to squelch a possible demonstration.

Two workers present, speaking on the condition of anonymity for their safety, said in separate telephone interviews that a group of workers had been approaching the administration office to request an ambulance for an injured colleague when the soldiers began shooting, killing at least one and wounding at least two others.

Spokesmen for the military, the Interior Ministry and the Foreign Ministry did not respond to messages seeking comment.

Sarah Leah Whitson, director of the Middle East division of Human Rights Watch, accused the Obama administration of shrugging off such rights violations even though “the government’s own memo acknowledges a laundry list of the worst human rights abuses.”

But Amy Hawthorne, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former State Department official, noted that the administration could have kept the report vague or even classified but chose to lay out at least some of the criticism.

“They are not doing as the U.S. did with the Mubarak regime — attempting to praise the regime for cosmetic steps at reform or downplay serious rights abuses,” she said.

The administration’s report credits Egypt with beginning to overhaul its economy by cutting subsidies, increasing taxes and improving the business climate, “including for U.S. businesses.” Because Egypt is the most populous Arab state and a bellwether in the region, its “success or failure impacts the prospects of peace, stability, democracy and economic growth across the Middle East,” it says.

But “the overall trajectory for rights and democracy has been negative,” the report continues. “A series of executive initiatives, new laws and judicial actions severely restrict freedom of the press, freedom of association, freedom of peaceful assembly and due process, and they undermine prospects for democratic governance.”

It noted that four American-Egyptian dual citizens were in Egyptian jails for cases with “potentially political overtones”; one of the four, Mohamed Soltan, was recently released and deported.

“Government forces have committed arbitrary or unlawful killings during the dispersal of demonstrators, of persons in custody, and during military operations in the Northern Sinai Peninsula,” the report says, adding that Egyptian security forces killed “at least 1,000” in one day when they cleared two Islamist sit-ins on Aug. 14, 2013.

“The government has not held accountable any individual or government entities for violence associated with the clearing operations,” the report continues, adding, “Impunity remains a serious problem.”

Merna Thomas contributed reporting.

A version of this article appears in print on June 8, 2015, on page A6 of the New York edition with the headline:

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Egypt's top proscutor killed by car bomb
« Reply #375 on: June 30, 2015, 08:49:11 AM »



Police in Cairo on Monday inspected the wreckage of a convoy carrying Egypt’s top prosecutor, Hisham Barakat, who was killed by the attack.
Publish Date June 29, 2015. Photo by Hatem Safwat/European Pressphoto Agency.


CAIRO — A powerful bomb killed Egypt’s top prosecutor as he drove to work Monday morning, broadening the violent insurgency against the government that militants have been waging for two years.

The prosecutor, Hisham Barakat, was the most senior official to be killed in Egypt since the insurgency began in 2013, after the military ousted the country’s first freely elected president, Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Gen. Osama Bedeir, chief of security here in Cairo, said the bomb was in a car parked along Mr. Barakat’s route and was probably detonated by remote control. The apparently sophisticated mode of attack foiled security measures that were meant to protect Mr. Barakat, who had repeatedly received death threats.


The daylight assassination of so senior a figure was a blow to President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who rose to power on a promise to restore stability after years of political tumult. His government has justified a broad crackdown against Islamists and other opponents as necessary to eradicate the threat from militants.


This month, militants carried out separate attacks near the Pyramids at Giza and the Karnak temple in Luxor, two of Egypt’s most popular tourist destinations, further denting the government’s efforts to project order.  Monday’s attack appeared to set Egypt on a course for more violence. The killing of Mr. Barakat was seen as likely to embolden the militants while prompting an even more forceful response from the security services.  There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

As one of the nation’s most prominent judicial officials, Mr. Barakat was a focal point for militant groups vowing retaliation for the prosecutions of hundreds of Islamists and the death sentences handed down against senior Brotherhood leaders, including Mr. Morsi.

Many of Mr. Barakat’s prosecutions had also been criticized by human rights advocates, who said the cases were built on flimsy evidence and politically motivated charges.

An Egyptian jihadist group affiliated with the Islamic State — one that has killed judges in the past — posted a video Sunday that appeared to threaten more attacks against the judiciary. The group, which calls itself the Sinai Province, included images that appeared to show an attack in May that killed several judges; fighters are seen spraying a minibus with machine-gun fire.

The three-minute video also included brief images of several other prominent judges, including one who sentenced Mr. Morsi to death.

But analysts said the bombing on Monday might have been the work, instead, of one of a number of militant groups that have surfaced in the last year with smaller-scale attacks. The emergence of these groups, with names like Revolutionary Punishment, have added to longstanding fears in Egypt that Islamists and other opponents of the government would turn to violence in response to the government’s crackdown.

The rise of the new groups coincided with a shift in the insurgency’s focus: After nearly two years of attacks mainly against the security services, killing hundreds of soldiers and police officers, the militants have broadened their targets to include civilian officials in the judiciary.

“This was something that was a long time in the making,” said Mokhtar Awad, a researcher at the Center for American Progress in Washington who studies Egyptian Islamist groups. “The groups that I classify as non-jihadist violent Islamists have always had, at the center of their discourse, the issue of retribution. It was clear that police officers were No. 1 on their list, but eventually, this had to include judges.”

The explosion on Monday hit Mr. Barakat’s small convoy around 10 a.m. as it left the Heliopolis neighborhood near Cairo International Airport. The force of the blast set several cars on fire and shattered windows along the street, injuring at least eight people.

Egyptian officials initially said that Mr. Barakat’s wounds were not life-threatening and included bruises to his face and a dislocated shoulder. Later, the Health Ministry said Mr. Barakat had suffered a lacerated liver and died in the hospital from internal bleeding.

The explosion raised troubling questions about the government’s security measures, which failed to protect one of its most vulnerable officials even though militants had attempted similar attacks before. In September 2013, Mohamed Ibrahim, who was interior minister at the time, survived a bomb attack on his convoy in Cairo.

Ahmed Shazly, who lives near the site of the latest bombing, said Mr. Barakat appeared to follow the same routine every morning, leaving for work in a two-vehicle convoy, one of them apparently an armored vehicle.

In a statement on Monday, Mr. Sisi praised Mr. Barakat as a “model of judicial integrity” who “exemplified patriotism and diligence.” The government said it was canceling celebrations planned for Tuesday to commemorate the start of the mass protests that preceded Mr. Morsi’s ouster.


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Trump and Al Sisi
« Reply #382 on: December 30, 2016, 08:50:00 PM »

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WSJ: Trump and Al-Sisi: Let's make a deal
« Reply #384 on: March 31, 2017, 11:40:16 AM »
Can Trump Cut a Deal With Egypt?
Washington has a strong hand to ask for real concessions.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi in Cairo, March 2.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi in Cairo, March 2. Photo: khaled desouki/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
By Eric Trager
March 30, 2017 6:51 p.m. ET
9 COMMENTS

The relationship between Egypt and the U.S. will look sunnier on Monday, when President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi visits President Trump in Washington. Under the Obama administration, Mr. Sisi’s authoritarianism made him persona non grata. The key question: Can Mr. Trump translate the warm welcome into a “good deal” for America?

This isn’t the first U.S.-Egypt “reset.” Upon taking office, President Obama courted Mr. Sisi’s predecessor, Hosni Mubarak, who had resented the Bush administration’s “freedom agenda.” Mr. Obama emphasized convergence with Egypt on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, while playing down human-rights concerns.

Mr. Obama’s priorities shifted, however, once Mr. Mubarak was overthrown in 2011. The White House backed Egypt’s democratic transition and cooperated with the Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Morsi, who won the 2012 presidential election.

The following year, after mass protests in Egypt, the military, led by Mr. Sisi, ousted Mr. Morsi and oversaw a deadly crackdown on Morsi supporters. The Obama White House responded by withholding weapons shipments. Cairo interpreted this as U.S. support for the Muslim Brotherhood, which Egypt soon declared a terrorist organization. Weapons shipments resumed in 2015, but Cairo’s distrust of Washington persisted. Meanwhile, Egypt deepened its ties to Russia through arms deals and joint military exercises.

Now Mr. Sisi will encounter a friendlier White House. Mr. Trump is skeptical of democracy promotion and won’t press Egypt on political reform. Officials in the Trump administration have praised Mr. Sisi’s 2014 speech urging Muslim clerics to combat extremism. And they share his view that the Brotherhood is a terrorist organization.

Warmer relations could improve intelligence sharing and strategic cooperation. At the very least, Cairo should consult with Washington regarding Russia’s reported deployment of troops in western Egypt. Perhaps support for Mr. Sisi would dampen the anti-Americanism in Egypt’s media. If Mr. Trump insists, maybe Mr. Sisi will release Aya Hegazy, a U.S. citizen who has been arbitrarily detained since 2014.

Still, both countries’ domestic politics pose challenges. Egyptian officials have requested more U.S. military and economic aid. Egypt also wants Washington to renew cash-flow financing, which enables it to sign more expensive weapons contracts. But Mr. Trump vows to cut foreign aid.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump ought to prioritize Egypt’s counterterrorism efforts. Egypt’s military was built to fight land wars, and its brass refuses to focus aid on counterterrorism. Cairo may try to win this debate by playing to Mr. Trump’s pledge to create jobs: Buying weapons systems ultimately helps employment in the defense industry.

Mr. Trump’s best chance to cut a “good deal” with Mr. Sisi may be on Monday, when the Egyptian leader receives the Washington welcome he has long desired. But if Mr. Sisi pockets that victory without conceding anything on his country’s deepening relationship with Russia, prosecution of Americans, or aid priorities, Mr. Trump will have wasted Washington’s best hand in years.

Mr. Trager is a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and author of “Arab Fall: How the Muslim Brotherhood Won and Lost Egypt in 891 Days.”

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Stratfor: Egypt opens big military base
« Reply #385 on: July 24, 2017, 08:52:53 AM »
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi presided on July 22 over the opening of a new military base in northwest Egypt to protect coastal regions, ABC News reported July 24. Al-Sisi says it is the largest base in the Middle East. The base was opened the day before the 65th anniversary of the coup that ended the Egyptian monarchy and is named after the country's first president, Mohammed Naguib.



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Re: Egypt
« Reply #388 on: November 28, 2017, 02:00:34 PM »
We need to not the big Jihadi attack on the Sufi mosque in the Sinai and its implications.

We like Al Sisi but I am reading that he tends to go heavy military response and get a lot of innocent people and not so many of the jihadis-- which is presently problems in getting popular support.

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Stratfor: Egypt and Russia
« Reply #389 on: December 02, 2017, 01:17:55 AM »
Russia is taking another step toward restoring its military presence in the Middle East, announcing on Nov. 30 that it is working on a preliminary agreement with Egypt on the reciprocal use of air bases in each country. Egyptian authorities still must approve the draft agreement, which Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev has signed, but they are expected to do so soon. The agreement would be good for five years and could be extended.
 
Moscow is interested in expanding its influence in the Middle East for three main reasons. First, it wants to gain the leverage and freedom needed to solve broader international and economic challenges on its own terms. Second, it has an interest in containing the threat of radical Islam, which reaches into the Russian heartland. And finally, at a time when Western sanctions are weighing heavily on its economy, Moscow is looking to gain influence in and access to new markets for Russian arms, goods and energy.
 
The strategic implications for Russia are notable. Gaining basing rights in Egypt would allow Russia to project military power into Libya, the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa and the Mediterranean should it choose to. Even if it doesn't use that capability, the mere fact that it has it will give it greater diplomatic clout in Africa. It will also legitimize Russia's presence in the region and make it a more valuable partner for other countries there. Russia is also in discussions with Sudan on the possibility of constructing a Russian naval base there.
 
It couldn't be any clearer that Russia wants to restore and grow its presence in the Middle East, and it has found a willing partner in Egypt. Egypt's relationship with its historical ally, the United States, has soured since Washington temporarily cut military aid to the country after the 2013 military-led coup, as it was legally obligated to do. Though aid was eventually restored, the move was not received well by the Egyptian military, which is heavily reliant on foreign aid. Since 2013, Cairo has been rebuilding its relationship with Moscow, buying heavy equipment, including fighter jets, missiles and attack helicopters, in the hopes of diversifying its sources of arms and reducing the risk that it will again be left to its own devices. That said, Egypt is not interested in replacing the United States with Russia: Its military is still overwhelmingly dominated by American equipment, and many of its officers have American training. Rather, Egypt hopes to gain access to the best each military has to offer and will not hesitate to leverage the two against each other.

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Inbar: The Future of Egypt's treaty with Israel
« Reply #390 on: December 03, 2017, 06:46:55 AM »
The Future of Israel's Peace Treaty with Egypt
by Efraim Inbar
The Jerusalem Post
November 27, 2017
http://www.meforum.org/7051/future-of-israel-egypt-peace-treaty
 
Originally published under the title "For How Long Will the Peace Treaty with Egypt Be Robust?"
 
 
Israel's 40-year-old peace treaty with Egypt has proven more durable than contemporary cartoonists imagined.  Israel is celebrating the fortieth anniversary of the historic visit of Egyptian president Anwar Sadat to Jerusalem, that led to the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. The move by Egypt, the largest and strongest Arab state, changed the dynamics of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Sadat violated the Arab taboo against good neighborly relations with the Jewish state and opened the way for additional peace agreements. The defection of Egypt from the Arab military coalition eliminated the option of a two-front conventional war against Israel and saved the Israeli taxpayer billions of dollars. The heavy price paid by Israel to Egypt was total withdrawal from the Sinai and removal of settlements. But, in retrospect, it worked out well, turning Israel into "the land had peace for forty years."

The peace treaty withstood many difficult tests: Israel's strike on the Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1982, the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the 1987 Palestinian uprising, Israeli measures against the Palestinian terrorism campaign since 2000 and the Israel-Gaza wars. Even the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt (2012-13) did not cancel the peace treaty.

Israeli expectations for normal inter-state and people-to-people interactions with Egypt were not realized.

Unfortunately, Israeli expectations for normal inter-state and people-to-people interactions were not realized. The rooted cultural and religious barriers to having good relations with the Jewish state have been too difficult to overcome. In the Arab world, Israel is mostly seen as an alien body. For Egypt, this has not changed after 40 years of formal peace. In the absence of drastic change in the Arab educational systems, these perceptions of Jews and their state will continue. Hopes for peaceful relations with Arab countries – such as between the US and Canada – are fanciful dreams. This insight should be taken into consideration when calculating the Israeli price for Arab peace offers.

Moreover, the robustness of the peace treaty is not self-evident. History teaches us that most wars break out in violation of a peace treaty.

The survival of the peace treaty seems threatened by several developments. We have to remember that the change in Egypt's position toward Israel was a result of Cairo gradually preferring the US to the Soviet Union.  Egypt's position toward Israel changed because it preferred the US to the Soviet Union.

Egypt realized that the US had greater leverage on Israel in its attempt to gain back the Sinai. However, its pro-American orientation is not a constant. Nowadays, the US seems to have become a less desirable ally. Its international standing has deteriorated and its Middle East policy, under presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump, favors disengagement rather than involvement.

At the same time, Russia has become more influential in the region. Egypt seems to sense the change and now buys Russian weapons. It also purchased two Russian nuclear reactors, which has created a long-term dependency upon Moscow. A change in Egypt's foreign policy orientation also affects its relations with Israel.
The region, whose character is changing due to the ascendance of Iran, also provides reasons to worry.
 
Egypt's pro-American orientation is not a constant. With U.S. influence waning, Cairo has begun buying Russian weapons again.

States in the region are aware of a projected American weakness and are left with only two choices when facing an Iran that cooperates with Russia. They can form an alliance to curb Iranian influence (the choice of Saudi Arabia and most of the Gulf States) or get closer to Iran (the choice of Turkey and Qatar). Egypt is usually seen as part of the Sunni moderate camp that fears greater Iranian clout. Egypt is much more dependent upon financial support from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.

Nevertheless, Egypt supported Bashar Assad in Syria – an Iranian ally. If the Gulf region falls under Iranian influence, Cairo might have to adopt a different posture and also look for support in Tehran. This might put an end to the peace treaty with Israel.

Finally, the large growth of the Egyptian military and its modernization is a source of concern. The growth of the Egyptian air force, navy and land forces remains a mystery, particularly with no enemy on Egyptian borders in sight. The investments in logistics infrastructure from Cairo eastwards and the building of tunnels under the Suez Canal seem to have no reasonable civilian rationale. Moreover, the demilitarization of Sinai, the most important stabilizing element in the peace treaty, has been eroded, as Israel agreed to the infusion of Egyptian units into the Sinai to fight the radical Islamic insurgency.

While an Egyptian-Israeli military confrontation is unlikely, we see the emergence of conditions that make an Egyptian attack easier.

Everything must be done by Jerusalem to preserve the peace treaty with Egypt, but Israel should still prepare itself for worst-case scenarios.

Efraim Inbar is president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies, professor emeritus of political studies at Bar-Ilan University, and a Shillman-Ginsburg fellow at the Middle East Forum.

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IPT: Islamists scheme to disrupt Egyptian elections
« Reply #392 on: February 27, 2018, 10:40:40 AM »
Islamists Scheme to Disrupt Egyptian Presidential Elections
by Hany Ghoraba
Special to IPT News
February 27, 2018
https://www.investigativeproject.org/7358/islamists-scheme-to-disrupt-egyptian-presidential

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POTH: Egypt buying weapons and missiles from Norks-- US pist off
« Reply #393 on: March 04, 2018, 09:19:14 PM »
Need a North Korean Missile? Call the Cairo Embassy
By DECLAN WALSHMARCH 3, 2018

 
A statue of the muzzle and bayonet of an AK-47, given to Egypt by North Korea, honors the military partnership between the two countries. Credit Keith J Smith/Alamy 
 


CAIRO — On an island in the Suez Canal, a towering AK-47 rifle, its muzzle and bayonet pointed skyward, symbolizes one of Egypt’s most enduring alliances. Decades ago, North Korea presented it to Egypt to commemorate the 1973 war against Israel, when North Korean pilots fought and died on the Egyptian side.

But now the statue has come to signify another aspect of Egypt’s ties to North Korea: a furtive trade in illegal weapons that has upset President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s otherwise cozy relationship with the United States, set off a painful cut in military aid and drawn unremitting scrutiny from United Nations inspectors.

Egypt has purchased North Korean weapons and allowed North Korean diplomats to use their Cairo embassy as a base for military sales across the region, American and United Nations officials say. Those transactions earned vital hard cash for North Korea, but they violated international sanctions and drew the ire of Egypt’s main military patron, the United States, which cut or suspended $291 million in military aid in August.

Tensions may bubble up again in the coming weeks with the publication of a United Nations report that contains new information about the cargo of a rusty North Korean freighter intercepted off the coast of Egypt in 2016. The ship was carrying 30,000 rocket-propelled grenades worth an estimated $26 million.

The report, due to be released this month, identifies the customer for the weapons as an arm of the Arab Organization for Industrialization, Egypt’s main state weapons conglomerate. Mr. Sisi heads the committee that oversees the group.


Egypt has previously denied being the intended recipient of the weapons, or breaching international sanctions. In response to questions about the United Nations finding, the State Information Service said this past week: “The relevant Egyptian authorities have undertaken all the necessary measures in relation to the North Korean ship in full transparency and under the supervision” of United Nations officials.

After the Trump administration slashed aid last summer, Egyptian officials said they were cutting military ties to North Korea, reducing the size of its Cairo embassy and monitoring the activities of North Korean diplomats. The relationship with North Korea is “limited to representation, and there is almost no existing economic or other areas of cooperation,” Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said at a news conference with Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson in Cairo last month.

But that diplomatic representation, in an embassy that doubles as a regional arms dealership, is the problem, American officials have said. In addition, Washington worries that North Korea, a longtime supplier of ballistic missile technology to Egypt, is still supplying missile parts, said Andrea Berger, a North Korea specialist at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.

“Ballistic missile customers are the most concerning of North Korea’s partners and deserve the highest attention,” she said. “Egypt is one of those.”

The Embassy

North Korea’s largest embassy in the Middle East, an elegant, three-story Victorian building with a rusty brass plate over the entrance, sits on a leafy street on an island in the Nile. The embassy walls display photos of North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, standing in a garden or strolling through a fish market. Its windows are usually shuttered, and security guards discourage passers-by from taking photos.

Like those of many North Korean outposts, the duties of the Cairo embassy extend well beyond diplomacy.

In Africa especially, North Korean diplomats have engaged in a wide variety of ruses and schemes to earn hard currency, United Nations investigators say. In South Africa and Mozambique, North Korean diplomats have been implicated in rhino poaching. In Namibia, North Koreans built giant statues and a munitions factory. In Angola, they trained the presidential guard in martial arts.





In Egypt, their business is weapons. United Nations inspectors and North Korean defectors say the Cairo embassy has become a bustling arms bazaar for covert sales of North Korean missiles and cut-price Soviet-era military hardware across a band of North Africa and the Middle East.

Shielded by diplomatic cover and front companies, North Korean officials have traveled to Sudan, which was then subject to an international trade embargo, to sell satellite-guided missiles, according to records obtained by the United Nations. Others flew to Syria, where North Korea has supplied items that could be used in the production of chemical weapons.

Inside the embassy, arms dealing goes right to the top. In November 2016, the United States and the United Nations sanctioned the ambassador, Pak Chun-il, describing him as an agent of North Korea’s largest arms company, the Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation.

At least five other North Korean officials based in Egypt, employed by state security or various arms fronts, have  been sanctioned. One of them, Kim Song-chol, traveled to Khartoum in 2013 as part of a $6.8 million deal for the sale of 180 missiles and missile parts to Sudan.

According to this year’s sanctions report, Mr. Kim and another sanctioned official based in Cairo, Son Jong-hyok, continue to deal with Sudan’s state-controlled Military Industrial Corporation.
Photo

 
 
The North Korean Embassy in Cairo is the hub of an arms bazaar for military sales across the region, American and United Nations officials say. Credit Agence France-Presse 
 
“An arms dealer with a diplomatic passport is still an arms dealer,” Samantha Power, the United States ambassador to the United Nations, told the Security Council in 2016.

The Ship

For weeks in the summer of 2016, American intelligence had covertly tracked the Jie Shun, the ship filled with rocket-propelled grenades that has become a focus of Cairo’s ties to North Korea. As it neared the Suez Canal in August, according to a Western diplomat familiar with the case, the Americans warned the Egyptians it might be carrying contraband, effectively forcing them to intervene.





The seizure was the largest interdiction of munitions since sanctions were imposed on North Korea in 2006 — a significant victory in the international effort, including an arms embargo and export restrictions, to force Kim Jong-un to abandon his nuclear weapons program.

For the next three months, with the Jie Shun impounded at Ain Sokhna port, a diplomatic tug-of-war played out. The Americans wanted to send officials to inspect the dilapidated freighter and its illicit cargo. North Korea sent a diplomat to negotiate its release.


The Egyptians refused both demands, but in November 2016 agreed to allow United Nations inspectors to board the ship. But by then, valuable information about the identity of the customer for the rockets, which had been hidden under mounds of iron ore, was missing. The North Korean crew had been sent home, which meant the inspectors could not interview them.

But one piece of evidence remained, in the form of a name stenciled on the rocket crates: “Al Sakr Factory for Developed Industries (AOI),” Egypt’s principal missile research and development company and a subsidiary of its sprawling state weapons conglomerate, the Arab Organization for Industrialization.

Mohamed Abdulrahman, the chairman of Al Sakr, did not respond to emailed questions about the shipment. In its statement, Egypt’s State Information Service said the measures taken by the country were “praised” by the United Nations’ sanctions committee, “which reiterated that the way Egypt dealt with this case is a model to be followed in similar situations.”

Secret Missile Cooperation

The Jie Shun shipment was a glaring example of how cash-starved North Korea has helped finance its nuclear program by hawking stocks of cheap, Soviet-era weapons to countries that developed a reliance on those systems during the Cold War, American officials and analysts say.

But it also pointed to an established smuggling route and an entrenched military-to-military trading relationship that American officials say has long been a conduit for ballistic missile technology.
 
 
A North Korean freighter carrying 30,000 rocket-propelled grenades was intercepted off the coast of Egypt and held at the Ain Sokhna port, above, while the United States and North Korea wrestled over its fate. Credit Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters 
 
Starting in the 1970s, Cairo and Pyongyang collaborated to extend the range and accuracy of Soviet Scud missiles, said Owen Sirrs, a former agent with the Defense Intelligence Agency. In the late 1990s, American officials worried that Egypt was trying to buy North Korea’s Nodong missile system, which has a range of about 800 miles.

“We were sending démarches to the Egyptians to say, ‘Knock it off — we’re sending you hundreds of F-16s, and you don’t need that North Korean crap,’” said Mr. Sirrs, who was based in Cairo at the time and now lectures at the University of Montana.

It is unclear if Egypt ever acquired the Nodong missiles. Although Cairo has spent billions on high-profile military purchases in recent years, including Russian fighter jets, French aircraft carriers and German submarines, it has been notably cagey about its offensive missile capabilities.





In 2013, a shipment of spare parts for Scud-B missiles, which have a shorter range than the Nodong, was intercepted in transit as it was shipped by air from the North Korean Embassy in Beijing to a military-controlled company in Cairo. The missile components had been labeled parts for fish-processing machinery.

Egypt denied that the military company had ordered the Scud parts.

Such missiles could strike Israel from deep inside Egyptian territory. They could also reach Ethiopia, with which Egypt has a simmering dispute over a new dam on the Nile.

The Politics of Sanctions Evasion

The Trump administration has scored some successes in its drive to isolate North Korea from its allies, notably with the Philippines and Singapore last fall. But Egypt, which receives $1.3 billion annually in American aid, has resisted Mr. Trump’s entreaties.

Egypt’s relationship with North Korea runs deep. President Hosni Mubarak was regularly feted in Pyongyang before his ouster in 2011. An Egyptian tycoon, Naguib Sawiris, built North Korea’s main cellphone network and invested in a bank there. Along with the AK-47 monument on the Suez Canal, North Korea built a large war museum in Cairo that is frequently visited by Egyptian schoolchildren.

Egypt’s military leaders are reluctant to cut those ties and lose access to Soviet-era weapons and ballistic missile systems, analysts say, a posture bolstered by their reflexive distaste for appearing to bow to American pressure. They may feel that, based on past experience, American criticism will eventually abate.

“They think they can evade the consequences,” said Andrew Miller of the Project on Middle East Democracy, who until last year worked on Egypt at the State Department. “That they are continuing to stonewall and obfuscate and pursue this course of action indicates they think they can get away with it, and whatever price will be imposed on them will be bearable.”

At the North Korean Embassy in Cairo, now under a new ambassador, business continues as usual. North Korean state media has said little about the ambassador, Ma Tong-hui, other than to note that his previous post was as head of a little-known government body in Pyongyang called the Disarmament and Peace Institute.

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IPT: Why Egypt supports US withdrawal from Iran nuke deal
« Reply #394 on: May 22, 2018, 11:00:08 AM »
Why Egypt Supports U.S. Withdrawal From Iran Nuclear Deal
by Hany Ghoraba
Special to IPT News
May 22, 2018
https://www.investigativeproject.org/7465/why-egypt-supports-us-withdrawal-from-iran

 
 President Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal focused understandable attention on the parties which negotiated it. But the move also carries implications for other regional states, including Egypt.

In 2015, Egypt welcomed any initiative to stop a nuclear arms race in the region, but viewed the negotiations skeptically. "We would hope that the agreement reached between the parties would be comprehensive and fulfilling that would prevent an arms race in the Middle East and the complete elimination of all weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons," said Egyptian foreign ministry spokesman Bader Abdul Atti. Three years later, former Egyptian Foreign Minister and incumbent Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit expressed the same skepticism, saying the agreements focus solely on the nuclear program; it "is not the only element that should be pursued with Iran because it implements policies in the region that lead to instability."

While the deal limited Iran's uranium enrichment for a limited time, Iran never stopped supporting terrorist groups targeting Egypt, including the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and Hizballah. And the deal failed to address Iran's expansionist ambitions in the region.

Egypt has been in conflict with Iran's Islamist regime since the 1979 revolution ousted Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and led to Ayatollah Khomeini's ascent to power. Egypt provided refuge to the dethroned Shah a year after Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel at Camp David in 1978. In response, Iran ended direct flights to Egypt in 1979, and broke off all diplomatic relations with Egypt in 1980. Egypt remains the only Arab country without an embassy in Tehran.

Iran provoked Egyptians years later by naming a main street in Tehran in honor of Khalid Islambouli, an Egyptian terrorist who assassinated President Anwar Sadat during a 1981 military parade. The street name remains, despite an Iranian promise aimed at improving relations, and new larger-than-life wall graffiti of the terrorist decorate buildings in Tehran.

That form of animosity from Iran was met by Egypt's full support to the Iraqi state war against Iran (1979-1988) in which Egypt sold Iraq large amounts of its surplus Soviet-made weapons. Despite being in a major feud with Iraq as a result of Iraq's role in rallying the Arab states to boycott Egypt after the Camp David treaty, Egypt still chose to support Iraq against the Islamist regime, recognizing the greater long-term threat of Iran on Egypt and the entire region.

Iranian espionage operations in Egypt spiked with multiple Iranian cells uncovered trying to infiltrate Egyptian society and institutions. In one example, Iran used a former Muslim Brotherhood member to attempt to establish a radical Shiite Islamist political party in Egypt under the name Shiite Liberation Party to promote Iranian Islamic revolution policies. Hizballah, Iran's terrorist proxy, planned terrorist attacks against Egyptian targets. Egyptian authorities arrested 49 Hizballah members in 2009 for planning three bombings in Taba, a city that borders Israel. The cell's members managed to escape and flee the country after Hamas terrorists broke into the Wadi Al Natroun jail in January 2011 amid the 2011 uprising against Hosni Mubarak's government. One, Sami Shehab, appeared later in Lebanon at a Hizballah celebration.

Iran frequently hosts and supports Muslim Brotherhood leaders including former spokesman Kamal Al Hilbawy and Swiss-based financier Youssef Nada. Nada claims that he is simply seeking peace initiatives between Arabs and Iranians, but in reality he worked to bolster Iran's regional influence by routing intelligence from Muslim Brotherhood affiliates in Arab countries to Iranian operatives.

During a 2016 meeting with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Hilbawy described Ayatollah Khomeini as being his mentor as influential to Muslim Brotherhood members as their founder Hassan al-Banna and Brotherhood ideologue Sayyid Qutb. "We always say that we learned from Imam Khomeini as much as we learned from Imam Hassan al-Banna, Imam Maududi, Imam Sayyid Qutb ... and we are still learning from our brothers who are alive here [in Iran]," Hilbawy said.

He reaffirmed Muslim Brotherhood and Iranian animosity towards the United States: "We saw with our own eyes how the Soviet Union collapsed thanks to God ... and I pray to God Almighty we would witness the renaissance of Islam and unity of the Muslim Ummah, so we can see with our own eyes the overtaking of the remaining superpower (USA) as it falls and divides in front us day after day."

Iran, Hilbawy said, is the only country that the West fears and he hopes Iran becomes a model for the rest of the Arabic and Islamic world.

For nearly three decades, Iran has been a major financier for Hamas – the Muslim Brotherhood's Palestinian terror wing, which has been an obstacle for a sustainable peace between Palestinians and Israelis. Hamas also has worked to destabilize Egyptian national security and the peace agreement with Israel. It compromised Egyptian national security by digging tunnels to smuggle personnel, weapons and commodities, which has led the Egyptian army to launch a major campaign to destroy thousands of these tunnels across the Egyptian/Gazan border in the past years.

Critics say the nuclear deal's terms gave Iran a clear path toward developing a bomb once the deal ends. Egypt is well aware of this fact and the threat posed by Iran's developing ballistic missiles capabilities. The Khorramshahr medium-range missile tested last September can travel 2,000 kilometers with a payload of 1,800 kilograms. Once operational, it can reach Tel-Aviv. If it can travel 700 kilometers further, it can reach Cairo. Egypt, therefore, is understandably concerned about sanction relief that helps Iran fund such offensive missile technology.

Furthermore, Iran's hegemonic ambitions include financing Yemen's Shi'ite Houthi rebels who toppled their government in 2014 and controlled the Yemeni capital Sana'a. That move gave Iran control of the Bab-al Mandeb strait and thus threatens Egypt's military and commercial interests in the Red Sea.

Moreover, Iran-backed allies are gaining ground politically, with Hizballah winning 13 parliament seats in recent Lebanese elections. Iranian-backed Houthi fighters have held Yemen's capital Sanaa for four years.

Accordingly, Egyptian officials believe that the United States withdrawing from the nuclear deal may be a step to slow Iran's expansion and stop the region from falling into further chaos. While most agree on the Iranian threat to Egyptian interests, political strategist Ahmed Sarhan said it might have been better "re-negotiating the deal... not breaking it while [the U.S.] kept pressuring Iran to stop their regional hostility."

But political analyst Amr Bakly, director of Cairo Liberal Forum, praised the move. "The last three years have proven the failure of all the Obama administration's attempts to contain the Iranian regime. The end result was Iran receiving funds and economic privileges that enabled the regime to contain the rising domestic anger against it and sustain its continuous infiltration of the region through funding of the insurgency and instability in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, I do not think that increasing pressure on Iran could negatively affect the stability in the region, because since the signing of the deal by Iran, its foreign policies have not changed and therefore the world has to deal with the Iranian regime by its true nature. I believe that the outcome of the recent Lebanese elections has accelerated Trump's decision to withdraw from Iran's deal," Bakly said.

In 2014, Iranian MP Ali Reza Zakani bragged that Iran controls four Middle Eastern capitals – Damascus, Beirut, Baghdad and Sana'a in Yemen – demonstrating its expansionist ambitions in the region. Egypt will not sit idle watching a fifth capital added to that list and hence, welcomes curbing the Iranian regime by the United States.
Hany Ghoraba is an Egyptian writer, political and counter-terrorism analyst at Al Ahram Weekly, author of Egypt's Arab Spring: The Long and Winding Road to Democracy and a regular contributor to the BBC.

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IPT: Islamist Televangelists lose clout
« Reply #395 on: July 09, 2018, 11:23:37 AM »
Egypt's Islamist Televangelists Lose Clout
by Hany Ghoraba
Special to IPT News
July 9, 2018
https://www.investigativeproject.org/7523/egypt-islamist-televangelists-lose-clout


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Stratfor: Egypt goes on Arms spending spree
« Reply #397 on: October 11, 2018, 10:33:12 AM »
Egypt Goes on an Arms Spending Spree
Egyptian troops patrol the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt as they keep an eye on Hamas forces in 2016.


    Over the past five years, Egypt has drastically increased its arms imports, making it the third largest destination for weapons in the world.
    Military necessity does not adequately explain the major increase in arms purchases. Egypt has pursued the arms buildup to bolster regional influence and global prestige and to lessen its dependence on the United States.
    The buildup has come at a significant cost to military efficiency, because the types of weaponry differ widely throughout the armed forces.
    Ultimately, such expenditures are unsustainable due to Egypt's economic realities.

Over the past few years, Egypt has opened the checkbook, embarking on an arms purchasing program that has quickly made it one of the biggest importers of weapons in the world. The outlay of cash, however, is all the more remarkable given Egypt's fragile economic situation and its lack of a major conventional adversary. Its motivations stem not so much from a military need but from a desire to regain the influence of a country that is used to throwing its weight around the region. Ultimately, though, simple economics might curtail the spending spree.

The Big Picture

Egypt has traditionally held great sway over events in its wider region — not least because of its status as the most populous country in the Middle East. Cairo's decision to pursue a significant arms buildup will therefore impact its position in the region, as well as its relationships with other global powers, albeit at a cost that goes beyond the mere financial outlay.

See Egypt's Uphill Battle
Opening the Checkbook

According to a Stockholm International Peace Research Institute report released in March, Egypt is now the third largest arms importer in the world (after India and Saudi Arabia). Indeed, in the five years since Abdel Fattah al-Sisi became president, the country's arms imports have increased by a whopping 215 percent. During that period, Egypt signed major deals with a diverse array of suppliers, including the United States, Russia, France and Germany. The purchases have significantly upgraded the Egyptian arsenal, offering Cairo capabilities it previously lacked, including amphibious assault ships.

Egypt has enjoyed an improving economy in recent years, although the buying spree predates the uptick in its economic fortunes. Cairo went to the International Monetary Fund two years ago, obtaining a $12 billion loan that has since improved its macroeconomic indicators. Al-Sisi's government has remained committed to economic reform, in part because the continued delivery of the money is contingent on Cairo's implementation of austerity measures and structural reforms. As a result, Egypt's sizable deficits are diminishing, its inflation is improving, and its debt forecast is looking rosier, all of which have led the World Bank to predict a 5.8 percent growth rate for the country in 2020. Greater overall stability in Egypt over the past couple of years has facilitated a recovery in the essential tourism and energy industries. Even overall unemployment rates have improved — although youth unemployment is still high, even by regional standards.

A chart shows the growth of Egypt's GDP since 2005.

Military necessity, however, does not lie at the root of the increase in Egyptian arms purchases. Although the country is embroiled in a difficult counterinsurgency against Islamists in the Sinai Peninsula, most of its recent purchases, including surface-to-air missiles and major warships, are completely unsuited to Sinai fighting. In fact, few of the recent arms deals address the army's needs in the Sinai, where Egyptian troops are largely waging a campaign with pre-existing capabilities and equipment. If anything, Egyptian forces fighting on the peninsula have suffered from a lack of resources. To a great extent, the Egyptian infantry conducting a majority of the fighting in the Sinai lacks advanced body armor and individual fighting gear amid a wider dearth of effective equipment, training and supplies. In terms of vehicles, the army has deployed older and more vulnerable M-60A3 tanks on the peninsula, while its more advanced — and much better protected — M1 Abrams tanks have remained outside the theater.

Coincidentally, Egypt didn't even buy some of the equipment that is most suited to its battle in the Sinai, the mine-resistant, ambush-protected (MRAP) vehicles. Instead, the United States began giving hundreds of them to Cairo free of charge in early 2016 as part of the Pentagon's Excess Defense Articles program.

Nor is Egypt's buying spree the result of a pressing need to deter major conventional adversaries. Aside from Israel and Saudi Arabia, none of Egypt's immediate neighbors come close to matching the country's military power. And Saudi Arabia hardly represents a realistic military threat, especially because the kingdom has provided significant economic aid to Cairo to bolster al-Sisi's government since the overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi in 2013. The long history of conflict between Egypt and Israel might give Cairo reason to maintain a robust military defense to guard against a potential downturn in relations with Israel, but such an eventuality appears remote at present.

After all, Egypt's relations with Israel have manifestly improved under the al-Sisi government, and Israel has even provided indirect assistance to the Egyptian army in its Sinai operations.

Egypt's recent arms purchases stem more from broader geopolitical factors than from mere military need.

Regaining a Lost Luster

A more convincing explanation for its recent arms purchases lies more in broader geopolitical factors than in mere military need. Egypt, the most populous country in the Arab world (currently about 100 million), was traditionally the Middle East's most influential state, especially during the Cold War. During the past two decades, however, its influence has diminished due to the growing economic heft of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Turkey's re-engagement with the region and Iran's move to bolster its presence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon in the wake of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's ouster in 2003. Internal factors, such as the Arab Spring and its aftermath, also diverted Egypt's focus inward for some time. But in a bid to restore some of its former shine and prestige, the government is loosening the purse strings to acquire high-end weapons, including the massive Mistral-class amphibious assault ships, to once again highlight its military might and influence.

Egypt's decision to search far and wide for suppliers is also no accident, because the country has long harbored worries about the risks of overdependence on a single foreign supplier such as the United States, which has supplied most of the Middle Eastern giant's military equipment since the 1978 Camp David Accords. Washington exacerbated Cairo's fears in October 2013 when it cut military and economic aid to Egypt due to the military's role in removing Morsi from power. The U.S. decision infuriated the Egyptian military, which became increasingly alarmed at the prospect of becoming hostage to U.S. demands. The choice to diversify its supplier base not only insulated Egypt from the dangers of overdependence on a single supplier but also enhanced the country's influence with a number of strong foreign powers, including France and Russia.

A chart shows the sources of Egypt's weapons purchases.

The cost of buying more arms from different suppliers, however, has not been simply financial. In general, militaries are more effective when they can operate largely similar equipment and weaponry across the force. Such standardization greatly facilitates logistics, maintenance and training, because spare parts can be easily sourced and troops need not become familiar with a hodgepodge of equipment. Egypt's extremely diverse arsenal, therefore, imposes significant constraints on its military. Its air defense forces, for instance, operate surface-to-air missile batteries that originate from the United States, Russia, France and now Germany. All the batteries are widely different platforms, making it exceedingly difficult to train forces in the same service across the various equipment.

Charts show the breakdown of age groups in Egypt's population since 1950.

Egypt's Achilles' Heel

Despite the IMF loans, the economy will remain the country's Achilles' heel. In the end, no amount of economic growth can outpace its exceptional population growth rate and its citizens' needs for basic services and resources. The United Nations estimates that by 2050, Egypt's population will reach 150 million, and 200 million by 2100. Though the country's military is locked in a difficult battle with Islamist militias in the Sinai, al-Sisi has referred to uncontrolled population growth as the country's greatest national security threat due to its capacity to hamstring the economy and the government. Egypt's economy might have improved in the past few years, but the country can ill afford to continue its major arms buildup over the long term — especially because much of the weaponry has been financed by loans Cairo still needs to pay back.