Author Topic: WW3  (Read 372266 times)

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19756
    • View Profile
Re: World War III
« Reply #600 on: September 27, 2022, 01:45:13 PM »
"I'm hoping this is wrong!"


i dunno but I nominate Chris Wallace to go to Russia to interview Vlad and ask for his response

might me more interesting then ARods love life

that is his next interview supposedly

So A rod :

where has your rod been?

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: World War III
« Reply #601 on: September 27, 2022, 01:46:37 PM »
"I'm hoping this is wrong!"


i dunno but I nominate Chris Wallace to go to Russia to interview Vlad and ask for his response

might me more interesting then ARods love life

that is his next interview supposedly

So A rod :

where has your rod been?

Wallace needs to fall out of a Russian window.


G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Let’s get WW III going!
« Reply #603 on: September 30, 2022, 09:52:47 AM »


ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19756
    • View Profile
Re: World War III
« Reply #605 on: September 30, 2022, 11:03:36 AM »
".Re: Let’s get WW III going!-Things down always play out like the junta wants"

isn't that one of the tenets of war; things rarely go exactly as planned ....


however the war experts are , I thought , supposed to plan for every contingency
or every possible outcome and twist and turn

 :roll:

(now that I read CCP defeats us in their war games .

and we are in new quagmire in Ukraine
thanks to Biden Admin weakness to start with enticing putin to invade)

planning has not been so scrupulous has it?


DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19442
    • View Profile
Re: Let’s get WW III going!
« Reply #606 on: September 30, 2022, 12:24:35 PM »
https://ace.mu.nu/archives/401192.php

This is fine!

"Zelenzky, in a Hot War With Russia, Asks for Accelerated Entry Into NATO"


   - I wouldn't want to be a potential rape victim in a world where trying to defend yourself is what provoked the attack.


G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: Let’s get WW III going!
« Reply #608 on: September 30, 2022, 01:58:59 PM »
https://ace.mu.nu/archives/401192.php

This is fine!

"Zelenzky, in a Hot War With Russia, Asks for Accelerated Entry Into NATO"


   - I wouldn't want to be a potential rape victim in a world where trying to defend yourself is what provoked the attack.

Interesting metaphor, given Ukraine’s well documented human trafficking, including the sex trafficking of children and having been listed as one of the top 3 producers of child exploitation media in the world.


G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: World War III
« Reply #609 on: September 30, 2022, 02:04:20 PM »
".Re: Let’s get WW III going!-Things down always play out like the junta wants"

isn't that one of the tenets of war; things rarely go exactly as planned ....


however the war experts are , I thought , supposed to plan for every contingency
or every possible outcome and twist and turn

 :roll:

(now that I read CCP defeats us in their war games .

and we are in new quagmire in Ukraine
thanks to Biden Admin weakness to start with enticing putin to invade)

planning has not been so scrupulous has it?

Our “leaders” both civilian and military are highly credentialed and profoundly stupid and incompetent.


Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 72256
    • View Profile

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: A different theory
« Reply #612 on: October 01, 2022, 06:39:45 PM »
https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html?fbclid=IwAR1a8ECwjgwkVbdU5H2kgYwFSeQlkSkQoH0D_1_3a_rPLci92dSl3IIT2Wc

A very interesting theory. I have a minimal amount of post-blast investigative training. As I understand,  what remains of the pipeline should make it clear if it was an internal explosion that caused the breach, or if it was an external explosion, using high explosives and shaped charges. No idea if traces of chemicals resultant from the use of explosives would be present underwater.


G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: A different theory
« Reply #613 on: October 01, 2022, 09:53:58 PM »
https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html?fbclid=IwAR1a8ECwjgwkVbdU5H2kgYwFSeQlkSkQoH0D_1_3a_rPLci92dSl3IIT2Wc

A very interesting theory. I have a minimal amount of post-blast investigative training. As I understand,  what remains of the pipeline should make it clear if it was an internal explosion that caused the breach, or if it was an external explosion, using high explosives and shaped charges. No idea if traces of chemicals resultant from the use of explosives would be present underwater.

"Yes, 17 hours apart. No military is going to arrange for two pipes in the same general area to be destroyed 17 hours apart."

Plausible deniability. If you are staging an "accident", you want plausible deniability.


G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Has the US ever covertly blown up a Russian pipeline before?
« Reply #614 on: October 01, 2022, 09:56:43 PM »
https://www-telegraph-co-uk.translate.goog/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/1455559/CIA-plot-led-to-huge-blast-in-Siberian-gas-pipeline.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

CIA plot led to huge blast in Siberian gas pipeline
By Alec Russell in Washington
28 February 2004 • 12:00am
A CIA operation to sabotage Soviet industry by duping Moscow into stealing booby-trapped software was spectacularly successful when it triggered a huge explosion in a Siberian gas pipeline, it emerged yesterday.

Thomas Reed, a former US Air Force secretary who was in Ronald Reagan's National Security Council, discloses what he called just one example of the CIA's "cold-eyed economic warfare" against Moscow in a memoir to be published next month.

Leaked extracts in yesterday's Washington Post describe how the operation caused "the most monumental non-nuclear explosion and fire ever seen from space" in the summer of 1982.

Mr Reed writes that the software "was programmed to reset pump speeds and valve settings to produce pressures far beyond those acceptable to pipeline joints and welds".

The CIA learned of Soviet ambitions to steal the software via a French KGB source, Col Vladimir Vetrov, codenamed Farewell. His job was to evaluate the intelligence collected by a shadowy arm of the KGB set up a network of industrial spies to steal technology from the West.

The breakthrough came when Vetrov told the CIA of a specific "shopping list" of software technology that Moscow was seeking to update its pipeline as it sought to export natural gas to Western Europe.

Washington was keen to block the deal and, after securing President Reagan's approval in January 1982, the CIA tricked the Soviet Union into acquiring software with built-in flaws.

"In order to disrupt the Soviet gas supply, its hard currency earnings from the West, and the internal Russian economy, the pipeline software that was to run the pumps, turbines and valves was programmed to go haywire after a decent interval, to reset pump speeds and valve settings to produce pressures far beyond those acceptable to pipeline joints and welds," Mr Reed writes.

The project exceeded the CIA's wildest dreams. There were no casualties in the explosion, but it was so dramatic that the first reports are said to have stirred alarm in Washington.

The initial reports led to fears that the Soviets had launched a missile from a place where rockets were not known to be based, or even had detonated "a small nuclear device", Mr Reed writes in his book.

While some of the details of the CIA's counter-offensive have emerged before, the sabotage of the gas pipeline has remained a secret until now. Mr Reed told the Post he had CIA approval to make the disclosures.

Mr Vetrov's spying was discovered by the KGB and he was executed in 1983.

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 72256
    • View Profile
Re: World War III
« Reply #615 on: October 02, 2022, 03:37:54 AM »
"The CIA learned of Soviet ambitions to steal the software via a French KGB source, Col Vladimir Vetrov, codenamed Farewell. His job was to evaluate the intelligence collected by a shadowy arm of the KGB set up a network of industrial spies to steal technology from the West.
The breakthrough came when Vetrov told the CIA of a specific "shopping list" of software technology that Moscow was seeking to update its pipeline as it sought to export natural gas to Western Europe. Washington was keen to block the deal and, after securing President Reagan's approval in January 1982, the CIA tricked the Soviet Union into acquiring software with built-in flaws."

Maybe we should do this to the Chinese?

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: World War III
« Reply #616 on: October 02, 2022, 08:02:50 AM »
"The CIA learned of Soviet ambitions to steal the software via a French KGB source, Col Vladimir Vetrov, codenamed Farewell. His job was to evaluate the intelligence collected by a shadowy arm of the KGB set up a network of industrial spies to steal technology from the West.
The breakthrough came when Vetrov told the CIA of a specific "shopping list" of software technology that Moscow was seeking to update its pipeline as it sought to export natural gas to Western Europe. Washington was keen to block the deal and, after securing President Reagan's approval in January 1982, the CIA tricked the Soviet Union into acquiring software with built-in flaws."

Maybe we should do this to the Chinese?

Do you think we aren't a vassal state of the PRC?




Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 72256
    • View Profile
WRM: Putin's Nuke Threat is Real
« Reply #620 on: October 04, 2022, 07:41:55 AM »
Putin’s Nuclear Threat Is Real
The conflict isn’t only about Ukraine. He’s waging a global war on the U.S.-led order.
Walter Russell Mead hedcutBy Walter Russell MeadFollow
Oct. 3, 2022 6:03 pm ET

Even as poorly trained, poorly led and poorly supplied Russian forces retreat on the battlefield, the danger that the war in Ukraine will erupt into a wider conflict continues to grow. Vladimir Putin has responded to the weakening of his military position by “annexing” four contested regions inside Ukraine, declaring that the conflict in Ukraine is a war for the survival of Russia, and raising the specter of a nuclear strike. The West is taking note of these moves and the sabotage of Baltic pipelines connecting European consumers to Russian gas. National security adviser Jake Sullivan has warned Russia that any use of nuclear weapons would have catastrophic consequences for Russian forces, and Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, repeated that message Sunday morning.

As the Biden administration scrambles to manage the most dangerous international confrontation since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, it must see the world through Mr. Putin’s eyes. Only then can officials know how seriously to take the nuclear saber-rattling and develop an appropriate response.

While American presidents going back to George W. Bush have failed to appreciate the depth and passion of Mr. Putin’s hostility to the U.S., the Russian president isn’t that hard to read. Like a movie supervillain who can’t resist sharing the details of his plans for world conquest with the captured hero, Mr. Putin makes no secret of his agenda. At Friday’s ceremony marking Russia’s illegal and invalid “annexation” of four Ukrainian regions, he laid out his worldview and ambitions in a chilling and extraordinary speech that every American policy maker should read.

Mr. Putin sees global politics today as a struggle between a rapacious and domineering West and the rest of the world bent on resisting our arrogance and exploitation. The West is cynical and hypocritical, and its professed devotion to “liberal values” is a sham. The West is not a coalition of equals; it represents the domination of the “evil Anglo-Saxons” over the Europeans and Japan. Mr. Putin sees this American-led world system as the successor to the British Empire, and he blames the Anglo-Saxon or English-speaking powers for a host of evils, from the Atlantic slave trade to European imperialism to the use of nuclear weapons in World War II.

This attack on “Anglo-Saxon” greed, brutality and hypocrisy is not original to Mr. Putin. He is reading from a script developed by opponents of British and American liberal capitalism and geopolitical power over hundreds of years. Napoleon could have delivered large swathes of this speech. Very different figures such as Kaiser Wilhelm II, Adolf Hitler as well as Joseph Stalin, Imperial Japanese leaders like Hideki Tojo, Iran’s Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and Osama bin Laden shared much of Mr. Putin’s critique. One can hear versions of it on many college campuses, and it plays a significant role in the intellectual and cultural life of many postcolonial countries and movements around the world.

Drawing on this widespread resentment of the liberal West allows Mr. Putin to appeal to currents of opinion in Russia and beyond that transcend normal ideological boundaries. Russians who are nostalgic for the Soviet Union can happily cooperate with Russians longing for the czars. Orthodox Christian traditionalists can make common cause with anti-Western Islamists. This is a hymn book from which fascists and communists can both happily sing. It appeals to the illiberal fifth column Mr. Putin hopes to foster in the West as well as to Africans, Latin Americans and Asians who resent continued Western wealth and power. Building a global front against Western and especially American power is central to Russian and Chinese foreign policy.

Mr. Putin’s version of the anti-American worldview gives a special role to Russia. “I would like to remind you that in the past, ambitions of world domination have repeatedly shattered against the courage and resilience of our people,” Mr. Putin told his audience in the Kremlin on Friday. In this view, Russia is the bulwark of the rest of the world against Western aggression and domination. And for Mr. Putin, the conquest of Ukraine is an essential step in preserving Russia’s ability to carry out its historic mission to curb the ambitions of the imperial West.

The Biden administration must remember that for Mr. Putin the battle in Ukraine is only one part of a global war against the American-led world order. And if Ukraine is going poorly for Mr. Putin, the global scene is more encouraging. While NATO has been strengthened and—thanks to Finnish and Swedish accession—is about to be expanded, the global order, already shaken by the Covid pandemic, has taken a beating this year. At least in part owing to Mr. Putin’s war, financial markets are in turmoil. Europe faces a daunting mix of double-digit inflation and fuel costs high enough to make important energy-intensive industries economically unviable. Rising food, fuel and fertilizer prices across the Middle East, Latin America and Africa threaten significant social suffering and political unrest. Mr. Putin can reasonably hope that over time these problems will strain the West’s cohesion.

Making threats about the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine advances both Mr. Putin’s goals in Ukraine and his larger campaign against the American-led order. Nuclear weapons, he hopes, could shift the military balance on the ground, and the fear of nuclear war could force Washington to dial back military support for Ukraine. The threat or use of nuclear weapons could split Europe between “peace at any price” governments and governments of countries closer to Russia whose determination to resist nuclear blackmail would only grow.
There is one other consideration. Ever since taking power in Russia, Mr. Putin has been frustrated by his inability to parlay his country’s immense arsenal of nuclear weapons into real political power in the world. Nuclear weapons made the Soviet Union a superpower; Mr. Putin wants that stature back. Extracting significant concessions from the West by nuclear blackmail over Ukraine would be a major step in his goal of regaining the Soviet Union’s place in world affairs.

None of this is good news for the Biden administration. Yielding to Russian blackmail over Ukraine would be a massive blow to American credibility and power overseas and would look weak to Americans who have cheered Ukraine on. Yet deterring a Russian attack involves the risk of a deepening American engagement in an escalating war.

Mr. Putin’s armies are in headlong retreat across much of Ukraine. His support at home looks threatened. But the threat he poses to vital American interests must not be underestimated, and the threat that he will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine is real.

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19442
    • View Profile
Re: WRM: Putin's Nuke Threat is Real
« Reply #621 on: October 04, 2022, 08:04:41 AM »
I hold WRM at the highest level of respect on foreign policy matters.  That said, I don't fully follow him here.

Putin would lie, cheat, steal, murder, even commit genocide to advance himself and his cause.  Would he use nukes?  Sure.  But how does that advance himself or his cause?

IMHO, the threat of using nuclear weapons is his weapon.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2022, 08:07:08 AM by DougMacG »

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
How do you say...
« Reply #622 on: October 04, 2022, 08:18:31 AM »

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19756
    • View Profile
Doug : at your service
« Reply #623 on: October 04, 2022, 08:25:10 AM »
"fuck around and find out in Russian":    "погуглите и узнайте"

click on link before to find out how pronounced:

https://www.google.com/search?q=fuck+around+and+find+out+in+fussian&rlz=1C5GCEM_enUS1001US1001&oq=fuck+around+and+find+out+in+fussian&aqs=chrome..69i57.7857j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: WRM: Putin's Nuke Threat is Real
« Reply #624 on: October 04, 2022, 08:29:45 AM »
I hold WRM at the highest level of respect on foreign policy matters.  That said, I don't fully follow him here.

Putin would lie, cheat, steal, murder, even commit genocide to advance himself and his cause.  Would he use nukes?  Sure.  But how does that advance himself or his cause?

IMHO, the threat of using nuclear weapons is his weapon.

Better read up on Russian doctrine.

https://globalsecurityreview.com/nuclear-de-escalation-russias-deterrence-strategy/



G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19756
    • View Profile
General Keane on Newmax recently
« Reply #628 on: October 04, 2022, 07:24:30 PM »
told us not to worry
as the risk if very low:

https://nj1015.com/apocalypse-nj-what-happens-if-were-hit-with-a-nuclear-weapon/

I only hope I die immediately in the blast not sometime after bleeding from every orifice skin falling off and of sepsis

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: General Keane on Newmax recently
« Reply #629 on: October 04, 2022, 07:27:29 PM »
told us not to worry
as the risk if very low:

https://nj1015.com/apocalypse-nj-what-happens-if-were-hit-with-a-nuclear-weapon/

I only hope I die immediately in the blast not sometime after bleeding from every orifice skin falling off and of sepsis

At least we will have shown the world we stuck by Ukraine to the bitter end!

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: General Keane on Newmax recently
« Reply #630 on: October 04, 2022, 08:18:58 PM »
told us not to worry
as the risk if very low:

https://nj1015.com/apocalypse-nj-what-happens-if-were-hit-with-a-nuclear-weapon/

I only hope I die immediately in the blast not sometime after bleeding from every orifice skin falling off and of sepsis

At least we will have shown the world we stuck by Ukraine to the bitter end!

https://media.gab.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1050,quality=100,fit=scale-down/system/media_attachments/files/117/251/164/original/1c118886daf62c05.jpeg





Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 72256
    • View Profile
Re: World War III
« Reply #633 on: October 07, 2022, 11:06:46 AM »
Ummm , , , sincere question:  Just how honest were the elections of 2014 that the Ukes overthrew with American help (and support here on this forum?)? 


ya

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1693
    • View Profile

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19756
    • View Profile
don't worry this might only happen in Ukraine
« Reply #637 on: October 09, 2022, 10:51:36 AM »
don't know this person but sounds quit believable

we have 40 minutes for ICBMs to reach USA Canada from Russia
over the North Pole
15 minutes maybe till detected by satellites

of course must be even less then that if submarine launched

about enough time to gather your loved ones in the house and get to basement
and pray before we die.

no need to worry
General Keane ( who I like but he keeps being wrong) says Putin would never do such.a thing because he knows the consequences

so I will not worry ....... :roll:

______

Profile photo for Dave Sullivan
Dave Sullivan
Studied Electrical Engineering at Birkenhead TechAuthor has 343 answers and 225.8K answer viewsSep 10
How does a nuclear attack work?

It takes around thirty minutes from Russian missile fields, over the North Pole, reentering the atmosphere over Canada before arriving at US Targets

US satellites would detect the infrared from the exhaust plumes of the missile’s boost phase within ten to fifteen seconds

NORAD uses a double detection system of verification, so a few more seconds go by while, for example, telemetry from the climbing missile is detected

Then it will appear as a “Launch detection” and the response will occur. The President will be informed of the size of the incoming strike package and can issue orders to strike back

This probably takes around fifteen minutes

In the meantime, the Russian ICBM had left the atmosphere, discarded its nose cone and released its warhead “Bus”, a carrier for the MIRVs that sit on it. This will have made some minor course corrections depending upon its programmed targets and is now cruising silently over the Arctic ice cap

Some twenty five minutes after launch was detected, the Bus arrives over Northern Canada. Small rockets fire to orient it at different targets and, at each point, a MIRV is released. The now empty Bus then tries to make a nuisance of itself by ejecting decoys and trying to spoof detection systems

With only a few minutes to go, each MIRV, glowing hot from reentry and decelerating from air friction is making its way over the Great Lakes and into US airspace

Down below, there is frantic activity, some are trying to flee, some to hunker down behind whatever protection they can find. But thirty minutes isn’t really that long at all. Perhaps the husband is trying to get back to his family from work, perhaps the wife was round at her mother’s, perhaps the kids are at school

Once the MIRV reaches around 5000 meters over its intended target, it detonates with around a 550 kiloton yield from the thermonuclear device inside

The flash will blind anyone who looks directly at it and at close range, within a kilometer, prompt X-Rays will vaporize anything that has a water content. Humans are mostly water.

An expanding blast wave will completely flatten every building within two kilometers, substantially damage any out to five kilometers and blow out windows up to ten kilometers away. The PSI overpressure will crush the air spaces inside humans within two kilometers, bringing death from ruptured lungs and compressive trauma. Further out, people will survive with ruptured eardrums

Far more deadly however will be the radiated heat from the rising fireball. Anything that heat “Shines” upon will be burnt. Anything that has a line of sight to the fireball will be heated. A few thousand degrees near the epicenter, dropping as distance increases but still giving third degree burns at five kilometers to unprotected skin

Remember the fireball is rising so the higher it gets the more the area it affects and the less you csn be safe hiding behind a wall or in a ditch for example

Forget about fallout. Since the fireball didn’t touch the ground and was an airburst, no surface material was sucked up to fall down later, irradiated

The danger from radiation is from direct gamma and x-rays absorbed from the initial prompt radiation. You should be safe in one to two weeks

However, you are now alone. No paramedics will come to treat your injuries from burns or flying debris. No Fire Department will come to extinguish your burning house. There is no water, no electricity, only the supplies you have with you. And you have to stay there for two weeks

Now if you live near a national command location, Cheyenne Mountain or a Presidential bunker, you are in far greater trouble. Expect, instead of ten MIRVs on that missile, there to be a single 27 megaton warhead, fuzed for groundburst, with a hardened penetrator on it to “Dig out” the bunker. Expect lethal effects forty kilometers away and you definitely will be getting fallout downwind

That is the reality of a nuclear attack

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19442
    • View Profile
Re: don't worry this might only happen in Ukraine
« Reply #639 on: October 10, 2022, 06:35:39 AM »
quote author=ccp

"...no need to worry
General Keane ( who I like but he keeps being wrong) says Putin would never do such.a thing because he knows the consequences

so I will not worry
....... :roll:.  "
------------

To deter this, every American President  must be clear that everything Putin values would be destroyed if he attempts this.

Meanwhile, I live mostly upwind and upstream from the targets in our town.

I can't remember, did we have fallout shelter funding in the "bipartisan infrastructure bill"?

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: don't worry this might only happen in Ukraine
« Reply #640 on: October 10, 2022, 07:19:08 AM »
quote author=ccp

"...no need to worry
General Keane ( who I like but he keeps being wrong) says Putin would never do such.a thing because he knows the consequences

so I will not worry
....... :roll:.  "
------------

To deter this, every American President  must be clear that everything Putin values would be destroyed if he attempts this.

Meanwhile, I live mostly upwind and upstream from the targets in our town.

I can't remember, did we have fallout shelter funding in the "bipartisan infrastructure bill"?

Who is our president?

Meaning who actually has the ability to order a nuclear strike?

Biden?

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19442
    • View Profile
Re: don't worry this might only happen in Ukraine
« Reply #641 on: October 10, 2022, 07:35:56 AM »
Who is our president?

Meaning who actually has the ability to order a nuclear strike?

Biden?

We lost some (all?) deterrence in the last election / count.


Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 72256
    • View Profile
Re: World War III
« Reply #643 on: October 10, 2022, 04:41:14 PM »
What does the off-ramp look like? 

In the present context, the only thing I can see is that we stop supplying the Ukes and/or yank their leash to stop attacking.

What comes next?

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 26643
    • View Profile
Re: World War III
« Reply #644 on: October 10, 2022, 10:49:41 PM »
What does the off-ramp look like? 

In the present context, the only thing I can see is that we stop supplying the Ukes and/or yank their leash to stop attacking.

What comes next?

Russia keep it's new territories and Ukraine pledges never to join NATO. Ukraine gets the other territory Russia seized back.

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19442
    • View Profile
Re: World War III, Off ramp? What comes next?
« Reply #645 on: October 11, 2022, 09:49:15 AM »
What does the off-ramp look like? 

In the present context, the only thing I can see is that we stop supplying the Ukes and/or yank their leash to stop attacking.

What comes next?


"yank their (Uke) leash to stop attacking."   - I believe that would not work.

"stop supplying the Ukes"   - That is our only lever, but are we their only supplier?  I don't think they would stop but would be less effective and perhaps start losing.

What do you see stopping the Russians?  - Oops, that wasn't asked.  We have no lever with Putin, or we already used all our levers with Putin.

We recently discussed "saving face" in the context of Xi and the Chinese.  That applies here.  Putin can't quit while losing even though he already got what he (allegedly) wanted. 

Give him all he wanted to stop the fighting?  Then what?

I heard Mike Pompeo this a.m. basically saying we should be all in.  From the limited sample here, that won't win him the nomination or the Presidency.

Given all the circumstances, I'm okay with limited in.  Putin in a quagmire is as good a place as we can find for him - other than dead or tried for war crimes at The Hague.

Per some of G M's links, he isn't about to take over western Europe if he can't take over Ukraine.

And why would he send nukes to NYC or DC if the Ukes blew up the bridge.  He has not been attacked (yet) in this war inside his borders (that I know of).  Attacking the US (Pearl Harbor, 911) is what brought us together.  He knows we are weakest divided.  This war, as it is, is divisive here.  The question seems to be, who can outlast whom?

In the so called armageddon, everyone loses - especially him (IMHO).

Boxed into a corner, worst case he loses Ukraine, not Russia. 

He didn't steal a trillion dollars from his own people (cf. Bill Browder, Freezing Order), hidden assets in other people's names, to be dead in retirement.

Soon we'll all be talking about China as the threat.









« Last Edit: October 11, 2022, 10:03:27 AM by DougMacG »

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19756
    • View Profile
Re: World War III
« Reply #646 on: October 11, 2022, 10:37:21 AM »
"."yank their (Uke) leash to stop attacking."   - I believe that would not work.

"stop supplying the Ukes"   - That is our only lever, but are we their only supplier?  I don't think they would stop but would be less effective and perhaps start losing.

What do you see stopping the Russians?  - Oops, that wasn't asked.  We have no lever with Putin, or we already used all our levers with Putin.

We recently discussed "saving face" in the context of Xi and the Chinese.  That applies here.  Putin can't quit while losing even though he already got what he (allegedly) wanted.

Give him all he wanted to stop the fighting?  Then what?

I heard Mike Pompeo this a.m. basically saying we should be all in.  From the limited sample here, that won't win him the nomination or the Presidency.

Given all the circumstances, I'm okay with limited in.  Putin in a quagmire is as good a place as we can find for him - other than dead or tried for war crimes at The Hague.

Per some of G M's links, he isn't about to take over western Europe if he can't take over Ukraine.

And why would he send nukes to NYC or DC if the Ukes blew up the bridge.  He has not been attacked (yet) in this war inside his borders (that I know of).  Attacking the US (Pearl Harbor, 911) is what brought us together.  He knows we are weakest divided.  This war, as it is, is divisive here.  The question seems to be, who can outlast whom?

In the so called armageddon, everyone loses - especially him (IMHO).

Boxed into a corner, worst case he loses Ukraine, not Russia.

He didn't steal a trillion dollars from his own people (cf. Bill Browder, Freezing Order), hidden assets in other people's names, to be dead in retirement.

Soon we'll all be talking about China as the threat.


Way too much logic here  :-)
However is logic alone the answer?

that said Biden (one of the great presidents - to be - just ask John Meacham ) himself suggested we prepare for atomic war  :roll:

we could always have Trump who knows more today about modern weaponry then anyone in the world since he funded them

thinks we should hold peace talks and sounds like he would support GM's proposals

otherwise what in the world would Trump "broker" :

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/10/11/trump-to-biden-start-talks-on-ukraine-to-prevent-world-war-iii/

As for me
I lean toward giving them Donbas as I don't think the rest is worth fighting for with all the death destruction and risks involved .
Not clear if Putin would agree anyway to this but is sounds like many in the Donbas region might :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbas#Demographics_and_politics
« Last Edit: October 11, 2022, 10:44:14 AM by ccp »



Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 72256
    • View Profile
« Last Edit: October 13, 2022, 02:49:48 PM by Crafty_Dog »