Author Topic: India/Indian Ocean, India-China, India Afpakia  (Read 164973 times)

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #700 on: March 23, 2024, 08:26:13 AM »
Lets discuss a bit, China's problems with India.

1. Northern Land Borders: Only India and Bhutan have unsettled borders with China in the North. They dont want to settle the land borders, so that India stays distracted in the mountains and not focus on the Indian Ocean region, where lies major vulnerability for the Chinese.
2. China's Indian Ocean vulnerability Most are aware of the Malacca strait choke point, from where China's shipping lanes can be choked, all export/import of goods  mostly comes to a stop, if that were to be blocked.

However, there are other choke points.
a) As you come out of the Malacca straits, Chinese ships have to pass to the south of the Andaman Nicobar islands (which belong to India). Its a major naval base (Andaman Nicobar command). So called 10 degree channel.

b) Recently, Maldives (muslim state on the south west of Sri Lanka)), tried to kick out India and replace them with China, forgetting that they are completely reliable on India for their economy, tourists and even fresh water!. No doubt a lot of money exchanged hands after their new President was elected. China thought they gained a major foothold in the Indian Ocean (no base as yet). Problem is that India activated a new naval base in the Minicoy islands (India owned) between Minicoy and Maldives, the so called 8 degree channel. this creates a new choke point.

c) Further north of Minicoy are major naval bases in the Lakshdweep islands (India owned), so called 9 degree channel, which is another choke point.

d) Look south of the Maldives, there lies Diego Garcia a part of the Chagos Islands, a major US base.

e) Even if Chinese subs were to cross south of these choke points, India has additional listening stations in Madagascar, Seychelles, Mauritius etc, These islands have many Indian origin people due to historical trade routes and relations are very close with India.

China is in no position to exert force in the Indian Ocean, unless they are dealing with small nations such as Phillipines, Vietnam etc.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2024, 02:26:19 PM by ya »

ya

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Re: Inidan nuke capable missile tests
« Reply #701 on: March 23, 2024, 08:33:46 AM »
India Adds Firepower to a Missile Program Focused on China
India tested a missile capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads, the latest advance in its homegrown Agni-V program
By
Rajesh Roy
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March 11, 2024 1:49 pm ET

NEW DELHI—India has successfully conducted the maiden flight test of an indigenously developed ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple warheads, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Monday, a development that enhances the country’s nuclear deterrence against rivals China and Pakistan.

The intercontinental ballistic missile called Agni-5, which in Sanskrit means “fire,” is equipped with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles, or MIRV technology, that allows it to launch multiple attacks in one go across different locations, according to two senior serving government officials.


India has been developing and testing its Agni series of missiles for more than a decade as it looks to catch up with China’s military strength. It first tested the Agni-5 series in 2012, and since then has been adding technological advancements to it and retesting. The country has said its Agni-5 program is in line with India’s stated policy to have a credible minimum deterrence and its commitment to no first-use of nuclear weapons.

In 2019, India successfully tested a missile capable of destroying a satellite in space, technology also held by only a few powers.

The surface-to-surface Agni missile is capable of striking targets of more than 5,000 kilometers, or 3,100 miles, with a high degree of accuracy. That trails the capabilities of China’s longest-range missiles.

Still, this puts Beijing and its neighborhood within the direct target range of India’s Strategic Forces Command, the dedicated tri-services nuclear force under the direct control of the prime minister, said New Delhi-based defense analyst N.C. Bipindra.

The MIRV-capable ballistic missile can target multiple strategic sites about 1,500 kilometers, or 930 miles apart, and “that is a significant nuclear strike capability for any nation to have,” he said. He added that Agni-5 development was largely focused on China, which New Delhi now views as the most serious military threat to India.


So why is MIRV capability important in the Indian context: China has an advantage in the number of nuclear warheads over India and also has access to larger kiloton nuclear bombs. MIRV capability neutralizes this edge, because each missile can carry multiple war heads (3-10), many of which will serve as decoy missiles. No body can be sure of shooting down tens of nuclear capable missiles. Expect more such tests, possibly also from submarine based missiles. The Agni V missiles brings all parts of China under missile reach. No place to hide.

ccp

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #702 on: March 23, 2024, 09:10:31 AM »
Thank you
This is stuff we never see
in the usual media
I know nothing of any of this.

You could be a guest on cable media

You could be the India/China expert equivalent to Gordon Chang.

We could all learn a lot about Asia......


ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #703 on: March 23, 2024, 06:45:14 PM »
I am not so smart, just read smart people :-D but thanks.

BTW, India is undergoing general elections in May 2024. Modi is expected to sweep the polls by the largest number of seats ever. The west is still not recognizing the Modi juggernaut, for they continue to diss him. Here's a typical election song for Modi, one of many. Modi has pushed Indian nationalism and Hinduism. Many of the visuals are from holy places that Modi visits, or the huge crowds that come to see Modi.
https://youtu.be/nndR8gHEsBw

ya

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« Last Edit: March 26, 2024, 02:25:16 PM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #705 on: March 26, 2024, 02:28:57 PM »
I'm not sensing congruity between the headline and the content of that article.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #706 on: March 30, 2024, 03:13:07 PM »
India-US relationship had a bad week. My comments in green.

"US-India partnership had a bad week. Kejriwal row (corrupt politician, possible CIA). CAA controversy (US comment on India offering citizenship to minorities in muslim countries). Biden letter to Pakistan (Biden congratulating pak PM). US embassy invites Kashmiris to Iftar party (Basically inviting anti-India elements). Jaishankar (India's Foreign Minister) says India and Russia take good care of each other."

DougMacG

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #707 on: March 30, 2024, 05:10:10 PM »
India-US relationship had a bad week. My comments in green.

"US-India partnership had a bad week. Kejriwal row (corrupt politician, possible CIA). CAA controversy (US comment on India offering citizenship to minorities in muslim countries). Biden letter to Pakistan (Biden congratulating pak PM). US embassy invites Kashmiris to Iftar party (Basically inviting anti-India elements). Jaishankar (India's Foreign Minister) says India and Russia take good care of each other."

Current US President can't figure out who are friends should be.   Hopefully PM Modi knows we have a new President coming soon.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #708 on: April 06, 2024, 09:16:02 AM »
Yesterday, Indian defense minister, Rajnath Singh again reiterated, that POK is ours. When asked about the timing of taking POK back, he said the when the people of POK themselves demand to merge with India. This has now been repeated several times. The strategy is clear, that India develops Indian Kashmir massively, such that the people in POK demand to merge with India. There have been several agitations already demanding that. When India is ready, the signal will be given to the people of POK to demand merger.

There have also been reports in the Guardian that India/Indian proxies have killed over 20 high level terrorists in Pak. This is the softening of  Pak, so that the trouble makers are eliminated before the big move for POK. When asked about that, he did not deny it. Even Modi has recently said that we will enter the homes of Paki terrorists and kill them there.

It would not surprise me if this happens in Modi's next term. He is 73 yrs old, his term is of 5 years. I am guessing he wants to retire as the best PM of India, which will include taking back POK.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #709 on: April 07, 2024, 06:34:42 AM »
With the election season heating up in India, everyone is waiting for the BJP (Modi's party) to issue their manifesto. The important thing is that they have completed about 90 % of the major promises made in the previous 2 election manifestos. Everyone is waiting to hear comments about POK. A second hot topic is to register all citizens (NRC bill). This would be key to preventing illegal immigration from Pak, Bangladesh, Myanmar border etc. Infact the NRC might be a pre-requisite to taking back POK, because of all the jihadis who will be trying to come in.

If anyone is interested, the 2019 manifesto is https://www.bjp.org/manifesto2019 page 11-12 has the national security aspects (all done).  They talk about the CAA (Citizenship Amendment Bill) which has irked the US for no reason. This is where they give citizenship to non-muslim refugees (Indians) from India before it was partitioned (Afghanistan Pak, Bangladesh), after 75 years of independence!. Removal of article 370/35 A from Kashmir, which was thought to be "permanent" and a source of corruption and Paki interference. Since the removal of article 370, there is now peace in Kashmir, violence has died down and development is proceeding at a rapid pace.

In election rallies, Modi speaks of his "guarantee" that he will do what he says.


ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean, India-China, India Afpakia
« Reply #711 on: April 07, 2024, 07:10:45 PM »
This is just an attempt to needle India and keep it focussed on the land border, away from the Indo-Pacific which is China's weak point.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean, India-China, India Afpakia
« Reply #712 on: April 14, 2024, 06:36:09 AM »
The BJP released their 2024 Election Manifesto. No direct mention of POK (but that would not be a good idea, as it would give the timing away). The below national defense related items were listed.

1.Continuing Zero Tolerance towards Terrorism: This is directed at Pak. They remind the readers of 2 previous surgical strikes against Pak.
2. Theaterization of Military Commands: For better efficiency. This will help in the next big war, and is China oriented. They have to be prepared for a two front war with Pak-China, along the NW borders, Eastern borders and in the sea.
3. Robust Infrastructure along the borders. They specifically  refer to India-Pak, India-China and India-Myanmar borders.
4. Reinforcing fight against drugs: This is Pak oriented, who sends a lot across their border.
5. Implementing the new Indian Penal Code: India used the old British rules, these have been updated to present times to deal with Terrorism and anti-national elements.
6.Implementation of the CAA: This is the new Citizenship act, where minorities (non muslims) of previous Indian territories (Pak, Afgh, Bangladesh) who sought shelter in India are given citizenship in India.
7. Enhance capabilities of armed forces and central armed forces (police) to deal with any threats.
8.National Forsensics Mission: To speed up crime related decisions.
9. To protect India's (Bharat) security interests in the Indian Ocean. This is China focussed.
10. Safeguarding India's Digital Sovereignty: This relates to internet based threats. India has low tolerance for misuse of FaceBook etc. Tik-Tok and tons of Chinese apps are banned.
11. Developing Robust Cybersecurity Policies.

Overall, all this is needed before we can fight China, but should the opportunity arise POK will be taken. Modi and the defense minister have said that many times. When the people of POK start demanding to merge with India, we will know its time.


ya

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Alexander Dugin on India
« Reply #713 on: April 20, 2024, 04:27:31 AM »
I was impressed with the understanding of India by Alexander Dugin, a Russian thinker close to Putin. His understanding of things is very close to that of the Indian mind. Have not seen any other Western commentator, and definitely no American commentator with this level of accuracy. Dugin by the way says Russia should side with China!, which may be the correct response for Russia.

https://twitter.com/Agdchan/status/1781435242865123423


« Last Edit: April 20, 2024, 12:25:03 PM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: India/Indian Ocean, India-China, India Afpakia
« Reply #714 on: April 20, 2024, 11:00:08 AM »
That was a very interesting read.

I will be mulling it over at length.

Given Dugin's essay, it seems on point to post this here:

https://amgreatness.com/2024/04/20/the-u-s-department-of-state-how-can-you-praise-what-you-hate/
« Last Edit: April 20, 2024, 12:26:02 PM by Crafty_Dog »

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean, India-China, India Afpakia
« Reply #715 on: April 20, 2024, 03:16:33 PM »
Wokeness is destroying America., will leave it at that!.

DougMacG

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Re: Alexander Dugin on India
« Reply #716 on: April 21, 2024, 09:00:26 AM »
https://twitter.com/Agdchan/status/1781435242865123423]https://twitter.com/Agdchan/status/1781435242865123423


Yes.  VERY interesting post, especially with the endorsement of ya that he has his history and perspective essentially right.

So many angles to it.  First to me is, why can't WE do that, and why don't other developing countries follow their model.

The parallels to Russia are interesting.