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Crafty_Dog

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George Friedman? The American Crisis Intensifies
« Reply #2200 on: April 11, 2023, 12:25:04 PM »


April 11, 2023
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The American Crisis Intensifies
By: George Friedman

As I ooze back to consciousness after COVID-19 had me in its grip for the past few weeks, it has occurred to me that the real story unfolding in the world is in the United States. China and Russia matter a great deal, as do other countries. But none of them pivot the world. The United States has the largest economy, as well as the most powerful military force, including its navy. The U.S. remains a leading innovator in technology.

This is why the United States is a decisive power, but also a dangerous one. The concentration of power and capabilities, and the degree to which they are globally interconnected, means that an American failure would likely have disastrous consequences globally.

This is not a new global vulnerability, but it now coincides with the systemic crisis that the U.S. faces, as I laid out in my book “The Storm Before the Calm.” That book predicted a social crisis early in this decade, followed by a massive economic crisis. Along with that, there would emerge a political crisis and a major, once-in-every-80-years institutional crisis in the federal government. Finally, it predicted a profound change in government near the end of the decade, driven by political and economic forces.

Looking at history, what is striking is that in previous cycles, the social issues tended to subside a bit before terminal economic issues took over. In 1980, as economic issues dominated, the intense social issues of race and sexual culture in the 1970s had subsided somewhat. In 1932, the social aspects faded with the death of Huey Long and the onset of the Great Depression. The strength of the Ku Klux Klan subsided, and social issues linked to immigration gave way to economic concerns.

The intensity of the ongoing social issues is striking. Issues that are moral, religious and cultural are still tearing at the American system. Bank failures, and the reality that caused them, are compounding instead of overtaking these old events. Significantly complicating the situation is the 80-year institutional cycle. The synchronization of the end of this cycle and the socio-economic cycle is a first in U.S. history. Questions about the relationship between federal institutions like the Supreme Court and Congress compound the normal distrust between the public and institutions.

Nothing about this process is mechanistic, but there are patterns in how we live and govern ourselves. The failure of social issues to lessen, the intensification of economic issues, and the extreme intensity of the friction between federal institutions are markedly different from patterns in the 20th century with the election of Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan. Both of them transitioned effectively from social and economic crises that were distinct. But the rage and mutual loathing of today – and their failure to recede – are odd, particularly when the institutional issue, which neither Roosevelt nor Reagan had to deal with, is included. The degree and type of rage and contempt today’s American public has for other members of the public are different.

This leads me to conclude that the model I used in “The Storm Before the Calm” has to be slightly modified. The transition points in political life had, since America’s founding, been 50-year cycles, and 80 years for institutional shifts. The pivotal moment has been the election of a president. I assumed that this cycle would be the same and, therefore, that the last presidential election before the end of the decade would be the pivot point.

I should emphasize that while presidents are important, they are not the driving force of history. The driving force is the patterns of division built around social, economic and institutional issues. It is the major division and massive dysfunction that force a fundamental shift on all levels. One president presides over this shift, leaving the new president the credit.

I do not believe the situation will hold beyond the coming election. The brutal social issues, from race to gender to guns, create a public division that affects the functioning of government. Relations within the political system at all levels are increasingly venomous. The financial system has left an economic crisis. As forecast, the technological system will become increasingly inefficient, and the public appetite for its goods will be in decline. The financial system portends economic decline that will breed increasingly desperate and simplistic solutions, further drawing capital out of the financial system. For the first time in history, the institutional cycle and the social cycle will coincide. While wars tend not to influence domestic cycles, the impact of the Ukraine war will likely be magnified.

The current political system cannot manage this situation. A solution must emerge now, to be presided over by the next president. It is impossible to explain all the details of a system failure or the need for a new political order. At this point, the only thing that can be said is that we are heading into failure, and a new president, filling everyone with joyous hope, will oversee what must be done. But what must be done remains murky, taking its bearing only from the breadth and seriousness of the failure.


Crafty_Dog

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VDH: Fiddling America Away
« Reply #2202 on: April 13, 2023, 04:22:44 PM »
Fiddling America Away
We fixate only on the irrelevant that we think we can address while ignoring the existential we know we no longer can solve.

By Victor Davis Hanson

April 10, 2023
The last few weeks, the world had been writing off the United States as either crazy or irrelevant as it watches America cannibalize itself.

Friends tremble at our sudden decline. Enemies rejoice. Neutrals make the necessary adjustments to join the ascendant non-American side.

The symptoms of our decline abroad appear everywhere. The more Joe Biden brags about the crippling oil sanctions on Russia, friends like India and allies like Japan ignore them. And why not, when Biden has no idea how long the war in Ukraine will last, or how much wherewithal the United States can, should, or will give Kyiv, or how its on-to-Red-Square blank check will finally end?

Big Biden talks about more solar and wind farms, and green new deals won’t fill the gas tanks in Munich or heat the homes of Kyoto, or lower the price of imported oil in the United Kingdom. Claiming the Afghanistan mess was a success fools no one.

Allies ask who are our leaders. An impaired Joe Biden who never is quite sure where he is, what he is doing, or whom he is with?

Kamala Harris, whose only interests appear to be demagoguing racial and social tensions with a shrinking vocabulary?

Senator John Fetterman (D-Penn.), who was elected on the argument it was unkind not to vote for a candidate who was physically and mentally impaired?

Energy Department kingpin Sam Brinton, the cross-dresser in lipstick, now charged with felonies for stealing women’s luggage at airport carousels?

Pete Buttigieg, our transportation secretary, who virtue signals melodramas of the past when he is clueless how to fix crises in the present?

Our Pentagon brass who fixate on saying the correct thing now to ensure the lucrative defense contractor billets later?

Allies fear that after abandoning billions of dollars in weaponry in Kabul to the terrorist Taliban, and pumping billions of dollars more of arms into the Ukrainian meat grinder, and failing to increase U.S. armaments production, Washington simply does not have the resources to match China in either a looming proxy or head-to-head war.

Browse through any media account of the U.S. military, and the storyline is one of racial, gender, gay, or transgendered wokeism, or a looming manpower shortage—not a new lethal weapon, a new division of veteran soldiers, or a new program to up the level of training, physical prowess, and mental attitude among the ranks.

The men and women, whom Russia and China most fear, feel that they are unwelcome in the U.S. military and so no longer join. Those whom our enemies hope do enlist, sign up to the delight of their quota-driven, identify politics recruitment officers—and our enemies as well.

NATO member Turkey is calling for an ecumenical Islamic effort combining Shiites and Sunnis, Persians and the Arabs, Middle Easterners and all Muslims—to unite against Israel. And why not when Biden had gratuitously insulted and yet begged Saudi Arabia and the Gulf exporting states, ignored the Abraham Accords, ostracized Israel, radically cut back on U.S. energy production capability, and groveled to Iran to reenter the Iran Nuclear Deal?

China now openly talks of war with the United States. Beijing claims the Taiwan Strait as its own de facto territorial waters. It partners with Russia to add to a growing alliance of Iran, and North Korea, and beckons Turkey, ostensibly a NATO ally.

After refusing to come clean about its birthing in Wuhan of the gain-in-function, engineered COVID-19 virus that killed 1 million Americans, China is unapologetically defiant about sending a spy balloon over key classified sites throughout the continental United States—part of the continual, humiliating follow-up to its inaugural smack down of Biden’s diplomats at the Anchorage mini-summit.

Oil producers, China, hostiles like Russia and Iran, and opportunists like Turkey and India all foresee the end of the dollar as the international currency. After the American humiliation in Afghanistan, the Islamic world, particularly on the West Bank and in Syria, all see the United States as increasingly weak.

The Biden Administration brags that it has saved NATO by pouring weapons into European Ukraine. But Europe is starving for fossil-fuel energy, about exhausted with emptying its arsenals in aid to Ukraine, and terrified that Biden is just enough a multilateralist to lead the alliance into a confrontation with Russia, but also so incompetent as to ensure either an economic depression or nuclear standoff.

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador basks in the publicity of helping an ailing Biden mount stairs, as he brags that 40 million Mexican nationals have entered the United States—the majority of them illegally. He prods Mexican expatriates to vote for Democrats to ensure the border is wide open and a perpetual vehicle for Mexican, not U.S. interests, in ensuring billions of dollars in remittances, defusing social tensions at home, and encouraging them abroad in the United States. Do we help defend the borders of Ukraine because we cannot defend our own? Are 100,000 dead Americans due to imported fentanyl mere collateral damage from open borders?

The more our chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and secretary of defense tour the world, sound off on contemporary strategic issues, or weigh in on domestic politics, the more apprehensive our allies become, wondering how the once-vaunted U.S. Armed Forces have descended into some bizarre woke commissariat.

The international financial community is terrified of $33 trillion in aggregate U.S. debt, a record 130 percent of annual American GDP. It was aghast as the Biden Administration blundered ahead printing money to encourage labor non-participation during a supply chain crisis, inciting inflation, inviting high interest rates, and all but ensuring bank collapses.

The world abroad will tolerate no more lectures from American grandees about the evils of tribal hatred or the benefits of democracy—not when race relations in America are regressing to Balkan-like venom. Anti-democratic rogue regimes indict their former presidents; they put on trial their current political rivals; and they let criminals go free if they serve ideological ends. Now the United States does the same, driven by the Left’s paranoid and irrational hatred of Donald Trump, and its eagerness to destroy all customs and traditions to vent its antipathy to all things Trump.

Foreigners assume that downtown  Baltimore, Detroit, Los Angeles, Memphis, San Francisco, or Washington are medieval—filthy, unsafe, vacant, and malodorous. Western civilization discovered 2,500 years ago how to remove excrement from its city cores; now it has either lost or forgotten that ability along with the knowledge that crime and disease thrive amid sewage and garbage.

The U.S. media was once the world’s gold standard. The New York Times claimed it was the paper of record. Network news was liberally slanted but often fair. Crusading independent journalists often kept government honest. But all that has now become a global laughingstock: ridiculously wrong about “Russian collusion,” predictably partisan about “Russian disinformation” and Hunter Biden’s laptop, egging on Alvin Bragg’s pathetic indictment of candidate and former president Trump, and giddy when an ex-president’s home is raided by FBI, or he is tried as a private citizen by a partisan Senate.

So as the military, political, financial, economic, and cultural status of the United States reaches a nadir, what is the reaction of a blinkered America?

What remedies are Americans preparing, as they totter on the abyss of disasters comparable to the U.S. Civil War, Great Depression, World War II, or 1960s-style cultural madness?

Marshall Plans to balance budgets? A 600-ship navy? Two more crack army divisions? A continental missile-defense system? A restoration of the cores of American cities? Plans to secure the border? To ratchet up oil and gas production? To drop the racial and sexual tribalism and restore a meritocracy? To reform higher education? To begin charging criminals with the felonies they have committed? A cleaning of the FBI, CIA, Justice Department, and IRS?

Hardly.

Instead Americans are wondering why a local prosecutor has charged with felonies the first president in history, and currently the leading 2024 presidential candidate, for having a purported liaison 16 years prior and concluding a non-disclosure agreement supposedly to hide it.

A man pretending to be a woman is cashing in on his media-created persona, winning million-dollar advertising contracts from woke corporations for hawking their beer and sports bras. Do these corporations believe that America’s women are so un-endowed that CEOs must hire a man without bosoms to become their national spokesperson for best accommodating cleavage he doesn’t have in a competition he doesn’t enter?

Report Ad
America’s downtowns are reaching a breaking point of vacancy, vagrancy, and violence that makes life there unsustainable, while the country argues over gender pronouns. As violent crime soars, especially hate crimes, interracial crimes, and inner-city crime, a mostly black woman’s championship basketball team stages a media psychodrama of pouting and hurt feelings—as it claims it was “disrespected” by left-wing First Lady Jill Biden and will not go to the White House but prefers instead to be hosted at one of the Obamas’ three mansion estates—a duo not heretofore known for welcoming in strangers, especially of the poorer sort.

What else rises to America’s fiddling attention as the world burns up abroad?

Students in American universities, whether at Stanford Law School or San Francisco State University, shout obscenities at federal judges or seek to beat up invited speakers. Their disruptions are encouraged by their own deans’ silence or active encouragement. The common denominator in both cases is that the disrupters and attackers freely admit they violate university rules and/or the law, and yet assume their ideology and their claims on victimhood exempt them from any consequences for their atrocious conduct. And they are proven right on both counts.

All know that a few expulsions of the elite and pampered lawbreakers would restore sanity to lectures; all know that administrators either side with the culprits or fear their own careers would suffer should they enforce the rules they are charged to uphold

As transgenderism sweeps the country and wins the attention of the White House, the media do their best to hide the facts that the transgendered mass murderer in Nashville wrote a blueprint of how and why she would soon be killing 9-year-olds, that another would-be transgendered mass killer was stopped just in time in Colorado, that another transgender would-be assassin traveled to the home of Supreme Court Justice Kavanagh to murder him.

To speak the truth that men not just in cross-dress perform sexualized dance skits for audiences that include children, but remain both exempt from legal ramifications and are in hot demand is nearly felonious. Best-selling novelist J. K. Rowling, tennis great Martina Navratilova, and All-American swimmer Riley Gaines—they all cannot go out in public alone without assuming they will be physically attacked by the “peaceful” transgendered community. Their sin? The mere suggestion that those born as biological men cannot declare themselves women and thus assume thereby they are.

So America suffers the sins of omission—squabbling over the nonessential—and commission—losing wars, going broke, ruining its economy, flirting with civil war. We know these are all self-inflicted wounds. But apparently, we believe their remedies are worse than the original maladies. And so we fixate only on the irrelevant that we think we can address while ignoring the existential we know we no longer can solve.

The world is terrified and stunned at the result—and increasingly looking elsewhere to non-American solutions.

Crafty_Dog

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George Friedman: Q&A to the American Crisis
« Reply #2203 on: April 14, 2023, 09:19:38 AM »
April 14, 2023
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Questions and Answers to the American Crisis
Thoughts in and around geopolitics.
By: George Friedman

The article I published earlier this week about the intensifying crisis in the United States generated a significant number of comments that ought to be addressed and questions that ought to be answered. The most important were, in no particular order: How am I so sure the U.S. will survive? How can I be so flippant about who occupies the White House and the processes that put him or her there? Will war play a significant role in the crisis? And why am I so pessimistic?

My confidence lies in the resilience of the U.S. political system. On several occasions, taking place every 50 years or so since the nation’s founding, it was able to withstand crises that were at least as troubling and dire as the one currently underway. In the 1830s, it faced a banking crisis that upended much of the settlement system in the west. There were also allegations that John Quincy Adams stole the election. His eventual replacement, Andrew Jackson, took credit for resolving the political and economic upheaval by revamping eastern banking, but it was really the only option available.

After the civil war, there was a massive financial crisis. The problem was solved by introducing a gold standard that stabilized the system. Rutherford B. Hayes had no other choice, so he oversaw the inevitable.

When Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected, the county was in the throes of a cataclysmic trade and banking crisis. FDR oversaw the refinancing of the banking system and indeed the restructuring of society. As a politician, he wanted to be reelected, so he took the course that best achieved that goal.

When Ronald Reagan was elected president, the country was undergoing a massive financial crisis characterized by high inflation and soaring banking rates. Reagan reversed the FDR strategy of increasing available cash, decreasing the money supply in general but increasing it for business investment. This provided a boost for business and contained inflation. He had no choice but to solve the problem. The public demanded a solution, and the options were severely limited.

The United States has massive economic resources, even in times of crisis. It also has a large number of people who can comprehend the issue. Finally, the problem faced requires a solution, and presidents demand them. In these stories, it was the sitting presidents who acted, but any president sufficiently desperate enough will act to find a solution. The buck stops with them, of course, but hundreds of people at least shape public demand and economic reality into a solution. And even if a president is a hopeless idiot, they have any number of institutions and advisers to keep them in check.

Things can always change, but in the examples I lay out, the president is forced to act but is constrained by reality. Presidents are not as powerful as we think they are because the system limits their options. The system forces solutions, even to very different problems, and the wealth of the United States, however carelessly handled, sees them through.

When you see a common and persistent pattern reappear, you look at the past to try to understand why the solution worked as it did. If you find a pattern, then the most conservative approach is to expect it to repeat itself. Therefore, I expected a severe economic and social crisis in the 2020s, which I wrote about some years ago and expect to see play out based on existing forces. The anomaly I see is that the intense and immediate pain of the current crisis could force the cycle to restart a few years earlier than normal. But that is neither being pessimistic nor a game changer.

The key to my argument is that I regard U.S. leaders as severely constrained. There is a tendency to regard presidents as supreme, particularly by their enemies. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are both loathed and admired. Both are constrained by history. Each wants to claim all successes were his and all failures were someone else’s. In fact, successes and failures originate in far more complex corners than the Oval Office. It is easy and comforting to see presidents as heroes or monsters. It has little to do with reality.

As for the crisis that has to be solved, there will always be a financial crisis that arises in a system such as ours that generates political stress, but the real agent of transformation will be technology, which is a foundational element of America. Fifty-year cycles in politics are linked to technological cycles. The automobile lost its dynamism 50 years after Henry Ford transformed America, which at least partly triggered the crisis of the 1970s. Now, microchip technology has lost the power to transform America, and it is time not for the disappearance of tech but for its power to drive the system.

What innovation comes next is yet unknown, but I suspect it will be linked to medicine and demography. Either way, it will drive America for 50 years, with all of us in awe until the awe is lost as financial power declines and we go on to the next cycle. The power to go on comes from all of the systems that we have – technical, economic and social – and from the extraordinary energy of rage and anger that has been an engine ever since Washington put down the Whiskey Rebellion with military force.

G M

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Re: George Friedman: Q&A to the American Crisis
« Reply #2204 on: April 14, 2023, 09:27:23 AM »
Whistling past the graveyard.

This isn’t America anymore.


April 14, 2023
View On Website
Open as PDF

    
Questions and Answers to the American Crisis
Thoughts in and around geopolitics.
By: George Friedman

The article I published earlier this week about the intensifying crisis in the United States generated a significant number of comments that ought to be addressed and questions that ought to be answered. The most important were, in no particular order: How am I so sure the U.S. will survive? How can I be so flippant about who occupies the White House and the processes that put him or her there? Will war play a significant role in the crisis? And why am I so pessimistic?

My confidence lies in the resilience of the U.S. political system. On several occasions, taking place every 50 years or so since the nation’s founding, it was able to withstand crises that were at least as troubling and dire as the one currently underway. In the 1830s, it faced a banking crisis that upended much of the settlement system in the west. There were also allegations that John Quincy Adams stole the election. His eventual replacement, Andrew Jackson, took credit for resolving the political and economic upheaval by revamping eastern banking, but it was really the only option available.

After the civil war, there was a massive financial crisis. The problem was solved by introducing a gold standard that stabilized the system. Rutherford B. Hayes had no other choice, so he oversaw the inevitable.

When Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected, the county was in the throes of a cataclysmic trade and banking crisis. FDR oversaw the refinancing of the banking system and indeed the restructuring of society. As a politician, he wanted to be reelected, so he took the course that best achieved that goal.

When Ronald Reagan was elected president, the country was undergoing a massive financial crisis characterized by high inflation and soaring banking rates. Reagan reversed the FDR strategy of increasing available cash, decreasing the money supply in general but increasing it for business investment. This provided a boost for business and contained inflation. He had no choice but to solve the problem. The public demanded a solution, and the options were severely limited.

The United States has massive economic resources, even in times of crisis. It also has a large number of people who can comprehend the issue. Finally, the problem faced requires a solution, and presidents demand them. In these stories, it was the sitting presidents who acted, but any president sufficiently desperate enough will act to find a solution. The buck stops with them, of course, but hundreds of people at least shape public demand and economic reality into a solution. And even if a president is a hopeless idiot, they have any number of institutions and advisers to keep them in check.

Things can always change, but in the examples I lay out, the president is forced to act but is constrained by reality. Presidents are not as powerful as we think they are because the system limits their options. The system forces solutions, even to very different problems, and the wealth of the United States, however carelessly handled, sees them through.

When you see a common and persistent pattern reappear, you look at the past to try to understand why the solution worked as it did. If you find a pattern, then the most conservative approach is to expect it to repeat itself. Therefore, I expected a severe economic and social crisis in the 2020s, which I wrote about some years ago and expect to see play out based on existing forces. The anomaly I see is that the intense and immediate pain of the current crisis could force the cycle to restart a few years earlier than normal. But that is neither being pessimistic nor a game changer.

The key to my argument is that I regard U.S. leaders as severely constrained. There is a tendency to regard presidents as supreme, particularly by their enemies. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are both loathed and admired. Both are constrained by history. Each wants to claim all successes were his and all failures were someone else’s. In fact, successes and failures originate in far more complex corners than the Oval Office. It is easy and comforting to see presidents as heroes or monsters. It has little to do with reality.

As for the crisis that has to be solved, there will always be a financial crisis that arises in a system such as ours that generates political stress, but the real agent of transformation will be technology, which is a foundational element of America. Fifty-year cycles in politics are linked to technological cycles. The automobile lost its dynamism 50 years after Henry Ford transformed America, which at least partly triggered the crisis of the 1970s. Now, microchip technology has lost the power to transform America, and it is time not for the disappearance of tech but for its power to drive the system.

What innovation comes next is yet unknown, but I suspect it will be linked to medicine and demography. Either way, it will drive America for 50 years, with all of us in awe until the awe is lost as financial power declines and we go on to the next cycle. The power to go on comes from all of the systems that we have – technical, economic and social – and from the extraordinary energy of rage and anger that has been an engine ever since Washington put down the Whiskey Rebellion with military force.

G M

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Crafty_Dog

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Two from Walter Russell Mead
« Reply #2208 on: May 15, 2023, 07:13:24 PM »
Haven't read them yet, but WRM has my/our? respect so here they are:


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would Jesus be a Democrat or Republican
« Reply #2209 on: May 25, 2023, 10:42:33 AM »
well it depends on who gives you an answer:

https://www.quora.com/If-Jesus-were-alive-today-and-in-the-US-would-he-be-more-likely-to-be-a-Democrat-or-a-Republican

https://rts.edu/resources/would-jesus-be-a-democrat-or-a-republican/

https://www.politico.eu/article/jesus-leftist-or-rightist-religion-politics/

some on the Left want to claim Jesus for themselves
some on the Right want to claim Jesus for themselves

some want to be neutral and state Jesus would not be either
 or he does not fit either category

personally , it is too much for me
and I have enough to think about

 :-P

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2214 on: May 27, 2023, 10:22:38 AM »
why can't the normal gays and trans be the ones we live with instead of the perverted crazed exhibitionist narcissistic clowns who get all the attention

normal gays dress and act like you and me
most trans would do the same
I am fine with that .

but instead we have the freaks trying to get in our faces everyday

and the MSM DEI mobster business uNiversities corporations celebrating the loons and force us to go along with it.

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2215 on: May 27, 2023, 10:41:27 AM »
There are no normal gays and trans. They are people with serious problems, of both a psychological and a spiritual nature. Some hide it better than others, but they all need help.


why can't the normal gays and trans be the ones we live with instead of the perverted crazed exhibitionist narcissistic clowns who get all the attention

normal gays dress and act like you and me
most trans would do the same
I am fine with that .

but instead we have the freaks trying to get in our faces everyday

and the MSM DEI mobster business uNiversities corporations celebrating the loons and force us to go along with it.

ccp

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2216 on: May 27, 2023, 11:14:37 AM »
that is your opinion not mine

sounds intolerant to me.

like some who. hate Christians , or anyone white or with male genitalia

G M

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2217 on: May 27, 2023, 11:24:16 AM »
that is your opinion not mine

sounds intolerant to me.

like some who. hate Christians , or anyone white or with male genitalia

It's the truth. Homosexuality should never have been removed from the DSM.

https://www.nami.org/Your-Journey/Identity-and-Cultural-Dimensions/LGBTQI

https://www.womenagainstabuse.org/education-resources/learn-about-abuse/lgbtq-relationships

It's a population in dire need of spiritual and psychological help.



ccp

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2219 on: May 27, 2023, 12:58:17 PM »
this is really a matter of opinions and definitions

that said I would rather have mainstream gays on my side politically then continue to make them feel like deviant outcasts
and drive them ALL to the LEFT .

if you were gay not by choice but because that is your reality
would you want to be categorized as mental disorder

you are dividing us more
I would rather work along side them with acceptance and tolerance

not preach to them
that said I draw the line with children and pedophilia
and any of them who try to preach of prosthilytize me


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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2220 on: May 27, 2023, 12:59:35 PM »
do you think Peter Thiel will continue to support those who tell him he is mentally disturbed ......?

the truth is NOT black or white .

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2221 on: May 27, 2023, 01:54:21 PM »
do you think Peter Thiel will continue to support those who tell him he is mentally disturbed ......?

the truth is NOT black or white .

It is God's standard. The word is crystal clear. What Peter Thiel thinks is irrelevant.

Tolerating sin and ignoring Godly standards has gotten us into the FUSA-Dumpster Fire.

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2222 on: May 27, 2023, 01:59:48 PM »
"this is really a matter of opinions and definitions.  that said I would rather have mainstream gays on my side politically then continue to make them feel like deviant outcasts and drive them ALL to the LEFT.  if you were gay not by choice but because that is your reality
would you want to be categorized as mental disorder.  you are dividing us more. I would rather work along side them with acceptance and tolerance. not preach to them. that said I draw the line with children and pedophilia and any of them who try to preach of prosthilytize me" or others.

Hearty concurrence from me!!! 

My daughter is a fine person!!!

This phrase is key "if you were gay not by choice".  Thus the question presented is what about where the outcome is NOT genetically pre-determined?

The way my mind organizes it is that our Constitutional Republic is based upon "the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God" via our Ninth Amendment and various writings in the Federalist Papers about Natural Law.

The First Law of Nature is "Eat, Survive, and Reproduce".

By Reproduce we have parental rights, not the State's rights over children.

In human ontogeny children are born requiring to receive guidance/culture and thus parents have the right to guide their children towards reproduction.

Loving parents should accept when the wiring is revealed to be otherwise, but it is an abomination for the State to intrude upon this process.

G M

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2223 on: May 27, 2023, 02:24:03 PM »
Everything we do is a choice. We can choose to follow God, we can choose to ignore him. We can choose to overcome our flawed and sinful nature or we can choose to indulge it.

Choices have consequences, both for nations and for individuals.


"this is really a matter of opinions and definitions.  that said I would rather have mainstream gays on my side politically then continue to make them feel like deviant outcasts and drive them ALL to the LEFT.  if you were gay not by choice but because that is your reality
would you want to be categorized as mental disorder.  you are dividing us more. I would rather work along side them with acceptance and tolerance. not preach to them. that said I draw the line with children and pedophilia and any of them who try to preach of prosthilytize me" or others.

Hearty concurrence from me!!! 

My daughter is a fine person!!!

This phrase is key "if you were gay not by choice".  Thus the question presented is what about where the outcome is NOT genetically pre-determined?

The way my mind organizes it is that our Constitutional Republic is based upon "the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God" via our Ninth Amendment and various writings in the Federalist Papers about Natural Law.

The First Law of Nature is "Eat, Survive, and Reproduce".

By Reproduce we have parental rights, not the State's rights over children.

In human ontogeny children are born requiring to receive guidance/culture and thus parents have the right to guide their children towards reproduction.

Loving parents should accept when the wiring is revealed to be otherwise, but it is an abomination for the State to intrude upon this process.

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2224 on: May 27, 2023, 02:40:53 PM »
everything is NOT a choice

people are all different
not the same;  I would like to make a billion playing basketball but I am not good at it.
And you claiming they should all live or believe like you
is your choice - but will not be mine


G M

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2225 on: May 27, 2023, 06:24:03 PM »
everything is NOT a choice

people are all different
not the same;  I would like to make a billion playing basketball but I am not good at it.
And you claiming they should all live or believe like you
is your choice - but will not be mine

Genesis 4:7

If you do well, will you not be accepted? And if you do not do well, sin is crouching at the door. Its desire is contrary to you, but you must rule over it.”

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2226 on: May 27, 2023, 06:59:12 PM »
My sense of things Judeo-Christian is based upon my sense of what the big picture themes are.

For example, I think of the Jewish word "atonement" and how it overlaps with but is different from "forgiveness".

My rumination on "The Power of Word" begins the thread of that name.

The Ten Commandments speak of "Honoring thy Father and thy Mother".   Tell me, what is the son of a gay parent to do?  Is not implicit in this commandment that parents should love their children?  Am I to tell my daughter to ignore who she is and not have the relationship she has?




G M

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2227 on: May 27, 2023, 09:05:05 PM »
My sense of things Judeo-Christian is based upon my sense of what the big picture themes are.

For example, I think of the Jewish word "atonement" and how it overlaps with but is different from "forgiveness".

My rumination on "The Power of Word" begins the thread of that name.

The Ten Commandments speak of "Honoring thy Father and thy Mother".   Tell me, what is the son of a gay parent to do?  Is not implicit in this commandment that parents should love their children?  Am I to tell my daughter to ignore who she is and not have the relationship she has?

Love the sinner, hate the sin.

The most relationship anyone can have is with God. Establish that relationship and your ability to make good decisions about the others improves. I love my wife, but I like women. I was born this way. I like strip clubs, women in various states of undress. The old and new testaments don’t have any verses that specifically cover legal adult entertainment venues, I don’t think trying to be legalistic with God is a smart strategy.

I try to live my faith daily. I try to deny my temptations, including being caustic, angry and abrasive. Avoiding strip clubs is easier.

We all have our “crosses to bear”. We all have our struggles. We can pay lip service to God and embrace our sinful natures, or we can struggle to be better.

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2228 on: May 28, 2023, 07:23:07 AM »
"I try to deny my temptations, including being caustic, angry and abrasive."

Work remains there  :-D :-D :-D

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2229 on: May 28, 2023, 07:26:44 AM »
"I try to deny my temptations, including being caustic, angry and abrasive."

Work remains there  :-D :-D :-D

Trust me, I am aware.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2230 on: May 28, 2023, 07:53:19 AM »
 8-) 8-) 8-)

Anyway, I think all of us will find this to be good fun:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MN7Izhs_PbQ&t=6s

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Matt Larsen
« Reply #2231 on: June 06, 2023, 02:36:26 PM »
« Last Edit: June 06, 2023, 02:39:19 PM by Crafty_Dog »

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George Friedman
« Reply #2232 on: June 09, 2023, 06:28:11 AM »
June 9, 2023
View On Website
Open as PDF

    
Reflections on Our Past and Future
Thoughts in and around geopolitics.
By: George Friedman
Be warned, dear reader: This column is much more a personal reflection on geopolitical forecasting than a piece of geopolitical forecasting itself. It is dedicated to thoughts on who we at Geopolitical Futures are, what we do and how we got here. It may not be an important story, but it is mine, and certain events have caused me to take what I believe to be a necessary step of reflecting on the past and taking stock of the future.

The lesson I’ve learned from my companies is that people will pay to read important things. The struggle, of course, is to find and explain important things. More than anything, that is the crux of our work here: filtering out the unimportant and focusing on the essential. Sometimes our readers learn something, and sometimes they read something they already know about, but the goal is always the same.

I founded Stratfor in 1996. I had written some books to that point, only one of which, "The Future of War," I am proud of. My wife and I started the company at Louisiana State University's Center for Geopolitical Studies. LSU is a fine school, but academia contains a destructive brand of politics I have no taste for. With my wife’s kamikaze bravery, we moved to Austin, Texas, a town we had visited only once and where we created a business around my passion: predicting the future of the world. This was an insane idea, but we were too ignorant to realize it.

Stratfor was predicated on my belief that the structure of intelligence gathering had changed. Until relatively recently, the essence of intelligence was stealing information about your enemy. I believed that with the advent of the internet, information could inevitably be found – perhaps not all of it, but enough. The more important theory of mine was that human history was constrained by forces that could be identified, and using that knowledge, you could develop a model that could be used to predict future events. The key was access to previously inaccessible data, the proper distinction between the important and the unimportant, and a helpful amount of hubris and insanity, both of which I have been accused of possessing.

Stratfor focused on the fact that we did, in fact, know some things that had been secret a long time ago. The intelligence community was slow to recognize that the structure of information had changed. I have written books on intelligence, the Middle East, war, Europe and the United States based on the idea that the forces that built a country cannot be exiled without the edifice collapsing. "The Next 100 Years" (2009) elevated me from total obscurity to relative unimportance. As time went on and as many of my forecasts came to bear, I faced the fact that the more you do, the more is demanded.

Stratfor suffered what would be a fatal blow when hackers broke into and then zeroed out our server, making public all of our email files, which included a lot of meaningless banter. The backups I thought were in place were not, or at least not that day. Aside from Julian Assange, who published our data on WikiLeaks (and who has been detained for a long time for multiple hacks of other more important organizations than ours), I really have no idea who did this, although I occasionally mumble theories when drunk.

My goal became to survive and triumph, and my wife made sure I knew what my duty was.
Stratfor was revived through significant financial solutions that in the end solved nothing. Its soul had been lost, and by 2015, I chose to leave to found Geopolitical Futures. The Stratfor name is now owned by another company with which it was merged. With regret, I am still frequently introduced at events as CEO of Stratfor, and that’s ok; what we have at Geopolitical Futures is the original Stratfor in all but name. For me, Geopolitical Futures serves the part of our society that cares about the things we care about.

It’s been a long time since the Center for Geopolitical Studies at LSU, and longer still since I noticed the world needed analysis more than it needed intelligence. Traditional means of collection are vital, of course, but a new tool had emerged. It’s strange and humbling to know that I can produce a living in America, so I want to thank all our readers, past and present, for saving me from a life of academics, think tanks and government work.

I want to thank you also for indulging me in this retrospective. For me, an exercise like this makes for creativity. Many of you have asked questions about our past, and many have asked us to get better – always the most useful advice. Thinking about where we were allows us to define our future. But we’ve done it our way, and we intend to continue.

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does anyone know what this is all about?
« Reply #2236 on: June 28, 2023, 05:24:59 AM »
from Breitbart -

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/06/27/exclusive-rising-conservative-influencer-pedro-gonzalez-regularly-espoused-racist-and-anti-semitic-sentiments-in-private-messages/

never heard of the guy
till now

is this a Trump camp hit job
is this true
is this nip it in the bud before he brings us all down
   by giving fodder to
   Conservative = white supremacy = nazis = racists

it is true most Jews are progs and too many in power working for their new religion called DNC [to my dismay as a Jew] but that is where I stop and only wish they would fight as hard for us .

As for Candice Owens what is going on with this - we want her on our side not to insult her or others .

I don't and won't do twitter - too stupid for me .



G M

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Re: does anyone know what this is all about?
« Reply #2237 on: June 28, 2023, 06:46:40 AM »
I think that when less than 3 percent of a population ends up disproportionally in positions of power in a society, and then overwhelmingly acts in a manner to destroy that society, it's going to generate some ill will, is it not?


from Breitbart -

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/06/27/exclusive-rising-conservative-influencer-pedro-gonzalez-regularly-espoused-racist-and-anti-semitic-sentiments-in-private-messages/

never heard of the guy
till now

is this a Trump camp hit job
is this true
is this nip it in the bud before he brings us all down
   by giving fodder to
   Conservative = white supremacy = nazis = racists

it is true most Jews are progs and too many in power working for their new religion called DNC [to my dismay as a Jew] but that is where I stop and only wish they would fight as hard for us .

As for Candice Owens what is going on with this - we want her on our side not to insult her or others .

I don't and won't do twitter - too stupid for me .

ccp

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2238 on: June 28, 2023, 07:14:45 AM »
"I think that when less than 3 percent of a population ends up disproportionally in positions of power in a society, and then overwhelmingly acts in a manner to destroy that society, it's going to generate some ill will, is it not?"

Even me , as a proud Jew, is disgusted with this as I previously posted .

I am shocked at how obnoxious so many of my faith are such bat crazy partisans and how low they stoop to push their ideology on the rest of us.  Lying cheating bribing extorting unethical lawfare censoring propaganda  is all part of the game for many .

I am sure Marc Levin feels the same.
I never heard him say it outright but have heard him bring it up in round a bout  ways such as

Like they came over from Europe and brought their socialism with them............

But I do wish we be careful about discussing this.
As before , I don't hate Jews but hate the ideology and methods of so many. and I think we can make that distinction without being branded with "anti semite" etc.

G M

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2239 on: June 28, 2023, 07:20:55 AM »
"I think that when less than 3 percent of a population ends up disproportionally in positions of power in a society, and then overwhelmingly acts in a manner to destroy that society, it's going to generate some ill will, is it not?"

Even me , as a proud Jew, is disgusted with this as I previously posted .

I am shocked at how obnoxious so many of my faith are such bat crazy partisans and how low they stoop to push their ideology on the rest of us.  Lying cheating bribing extorting unethical lawfare censoring propaganda  is all part of the game for many .

I am sure Marc Levin feels the same.
I never heard him say it outright but have heard him bring it up in round a bout  ways such as

Like they came over from Europe and brought their socialism with them............

But I do wish we be careful about discussing this.
As before , I don't hate Jews but hate the ideology and methods of so many. and I think we can make that distinction without being branded with "anti semite" etc.

Exactly.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2240 on: June 28, 2023, 07:44:26 AM »
Yes.

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American Maoism
« Reply #2242 on: July 05, 2023, 07:15:54 AM »
https://tomklingenstein.com/american-maoism/?fbclid=IwAR1J8dnOlYAxkwas5I7KZ23SpWi2DmDOPDMFnS1eu1hAWUBaArIu7Y7QZno


There is much to be learned by confronting the deep pathologies at the heart of the ideological deformation of reality.
Editor’s Note – This essay was originally published at American Mind on May 5, 2023.

Those of us who care about the survival of ordered liberty are daily faced with a conundrum: Do we painstakingly chronicle the constant assaults on the life of the mind and civilized norms and risk the charge of being one-note Johnnies? Or do we turn to other, more noble concerns and preoccupations, doing the right and the good? The latter path might seem more high-minded, rooted in a refusal to have our intellectual and political agendas determined by the rage of others. Why should our concerns be determined by the transparently false agendas of those who tear down and repudiate, and who offer nothing constructive in place of our civic and civilized inheritance? Let them pursue the thankless path of total critique, while we teach, build, construct, and sustain a civilized order worthy of human beings.

In truth, however, we must be attentive to both tasks, the positive work of high-minded thought and action that makes reasonable choice and civic comity possible, and the defense of the city without which nothing noble and choice-worthy can be sustained. And there is much to be learned by confronting the deep pathologies at the heart of the ideological deformation of reality. In any case, to stand aside while ideologues and fanatics seize the commanding heights of the academy and civil society entails nothing less moral and civil abdication, a choice for passivity over our non-negotiable duty to pass on the precious inheritance that is civilized liberty as a trust to our children and grandchildren. Surely Leo Strauss was right when he wrote in the 1940s that the greatest practical task of political philosophy is to defend “sound practice” against “bad theory.”

And bad theory abounds today. We daily witness displays of political rage informed by what David Martin Jones and M.L.R. Smith call in their indispensable 2022 book, The Strategy of Maoism in the West, “permanent offence taking.” Righteous indignation and the search for new and newer victims (and oppressors) are on constant display. DEI offices in colleges, universities, and corporations (and the news media, too) look to penalize, marginalize, and humiliate “oppressors” and “exploiters” as much as to “privilege” the oppressed, who must remain victims in perpetuity for the new system of ideological control to sustain itself. Merit, progress, opportunity, and civic reconciliation are all passé notions, deemed at once racist, offensive, and intolerable. What used to be called “Americanism,” equality under God and the law, must be castigated in a pathological display of collective self-loathing.

The constitutional scholar Jonathan Turley, an impressive liberal of the old school, has recently highlighted a macabre and deeply disturbing incident at Whitworth University in Spokane, Washington. At this self-described Christian institution, the student government association voted 9-4 to bar Xi Van Fleet, a survivor of the brutal and surreal Chinese Cultural Revolution of 1966 to 1976 to speak on campus. Van Fleet had the temerity to suggest in a series of speeches, writings, and tweets that “woke” culture in the United States had more than a passing similarity to the rage, illiberality, and insane self-confidence of the Red Guards unleashed by the murderous tyrant Mao Zedong. Her criticism of “woke” culture—including the DEI regime, the neo-Maoist Black Lives Matter movement, and the ever more fanatical LGBTQ “community”—was deemed hateful and “too harmful for any student to hear.” That is how Maoism comes to America, full of censorious rage but fueled with self-pity, therapeutic claptrap, and a narcissism that makes a mockery of civic debate and liberal education grounded in genuine discussion and disputation. But like the Maoists of old, Turley points out, these students at an ostensibly Christian institution of higher learning war with “false thoughts” with a sanctimony that is as pathetic as it is loathsome. As Turley shows, “conservative, religious, and libertarian views” are now what Mao and the Cultural Revolutionaries called “poisonous weeds” to be “removed from the garden of ‘fragrant flowers’ of approved viewpoints in higher education.”

Anyone who is not appalled by this, and who does not actively work to resist it, has broken with the honorable traditions of democratic liberalism and democratic conservatism that are the wellsprings of political decency and sanity in the Anglosphere and the West as a whole. That point must be stated loudly, clearly, and unequivocally. And as Xi Van Fleet is doing, the relevant history of cultural Maoism must be brought to the public’s attention, in what Lord Acton famously called “the embarrassing pedigree of ideas.”

As David Martin Jones and M.L.R. Smith point out, the Maoists in China and in revolutionary circles in the West from the 1960s on targeted the “Four Olds”: old ideas, old culture, old customs, and old habits, all of which were to be said to be at odds with the emancipatory and revolutionary Communist project. The Red Guards shouted slogans such as “Destruction before construction” as they marauded through Chinese cities and cultural institutions to destroy what Mao Zedong ominously called “ghosts and monsters.”

Maoism was the crudest and cruelest mass movement of repudiation to take on a global presence. It was applauded by leftist cultural icons such as Jean-Paul Sartre, Julia Kristeva, the movie director Jean-Luc Godard, Angela Davis, and much or most of the New Left of the sixties and seventies. The BLM movement in America and Britain today is proudly and unapologetically Maoist in inspiration and attitude. These “trained Marxists,” as they call themselves, delight in destruction and repudiation and preach racial hatred as fanatically and single-mindedly as the Marxists of old preached inexpiable class struggle. Corporate America shamelessly funds these racialists and totalitarians with little or no backlash or consequence. Corporate Maoism is real enough—something few predicted just a few short years ago.

America can certainly do better than this homegrown version of Maoism, full of rage and truly pathetic self-pity. An America that cannot listen to the inspired witness of Xi Van Fleet is heading off the precipice like the demonically possessed Gadarene Swine so dramatically described in the synoptic Gospels. Let authentic conservatives and liberals unite in resisting the ideological deformation of reality before it is too late. Honor and intellectual integrity demand nothing less.

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Inquiring minds want to know
« Reply #2243 on: July 07, 2023, 03:49:47 PM »


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Re: Would love to see this without having to subscribe
« Reply #2245 on: July 17, 2023, 02:50:14 PM »
only part of it came up.

May 2022 Issue

IDEAS
WHY THE PAST 10 YEARS OF AMERICAN LIFE HAVE BEEN UNIQUELY STUPID
It’s not just a phase.

By Jonathan Haidt
Illustrations by Nicolás Ortega
illustration with 1679 engraving of the tower of babel with pixellated clouds and pieces disintegrating digitally
Illustration by Nicolás Ortega. Source: "Turris Babel," Coenraet Decker, 1679.
APRIL 11, 2022
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This article was featured in One Story to Read Today, a newsletter in which our editors recommend a single must-read from The Atlantic, Monday through Friday. Sign up for it here.



What would it have been like to live in Babel in the days after its destruction? In the Book of Genesis, we are told that the descendants of Noah built a great city in the land of Shinar. They built a tower “with its top in the heavens” to “make a name” for themselves. God was offended by the hubris of humanity and said:

Look, they are one people, and they have all one language; and this is only the beginning of what they will do; nothing that they propose to do will now be impossible for them. Come, let us go down, and confuse their language there, so that they will not understand one another’s speech.
The text does not say that God destroyed the tower, but in many popular renderings of the story he does, so let’s hold that dramatic image in our minds: people wandering amid the ruins, unable to communicate, condemned to mutual incomprehension.

Explore the May 2022 Issue
Check out more from this issue and find your next story to read.

View More
The story of Babel is the best metaphor I have found for what happened to America in the 2010s, and for the fractured country we now inhabit. Something went terribly wrong, very suddenly. We are disoriented, unable to speak the same language or recognize the same truth. We are cut off from one another and from the past.


It’s been clear for quite a while now that red America and blue America are becoming like two different countries claiming the same territory, with two different versions of the Constitution, economics, and American history. But Babel is not a story about tribalism; it’s a story about the fragmentation of everything. It’s about the shattering of all that had seemed solid, the scattering of people who had been a community. It’s a metaphor for what is happening not only between red and blue, but within the left and within the right, as well as within universities, companies, professional associations, museums, and even families.   ...
« Last Edit: July 17, 2023, 02:53:16 PM by DougMacG »


ccp

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Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« Reply #2247 on: August 11, 2023, 09:07:46 AM »
The reincarnation of Abraham Lincoln

who would not be Trump....

ccp

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Biden to head to Maui next week
« Reply #2248 on: August 16, 2023, 10:37:41 AM »
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/08/16/white-house-announces-joe-biden-will-head-to-maui-disaster-zone-next-week/

FWIW , I personally do not care if a President goes to EVERY SINGLE weather event etc and gets photo ops hugging victims and exclaiming "I feel your pain"
ala Bill Clinton that has now become required to do list for every President since.

Since Clinton this has become a tool for everyone to criticize the opposing President who does not rush out the location by rocket ship
to hand out water , checks, and love and affection .....

I don't see why offering all available Federal assistance as soon as possible is not enough.



ccp

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Chris Cristie
« Reply #2249 on: August 25, 2023, 01:25:27 PM »
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/the-gop-field-is-already-shrinking

Byron states Christie is in the top 5.    :-o

I would have certainly have rather Martha asked him about his thoughts and humility on leaving office as governor of NJ
with an approval rating the lowest in history then the ridiculous UFO question.

He could do for the US what he did with NJ.....

He would probably answer that we are too stupid in NJ to understand what a genius he is and how great he was.
Except for the win against teachers unions I don't recall anything else he did but play rhino