Author Topic: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies  (Read 443557 times)

DougMacG

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Re: Tesla's sharp drop
« Reply #1500 on: March 07, 2021, 10:54:30 AM »
second post

I have no idea what he is talking about but it sounds intriguing.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-03-06/tesla-crashes


Tesla TSLA looks to me like it went from 400 to 900 to 600 from Nov to Jan Feb to March. 
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/TSLA/charts

A little like Bitcoin, there is no way to know from the outside what it really is worth.  Tesla is a brand of car but also presumably the technology license many of the rest will need to convert to EV and survive. 

Remember when Qualcomm went up 2400% in a year (1999) when the market figured out George Gilder was right, billions of people will want and need a smart phone and QCOM owned the enabling technology.

Coincidentally, tech crashed March 2000.  Qualcomm lives on but hasn't had years like that one and wasn't at the forefront of 5G. 

Does Tesla have a lock on the technology, or can China Inc. and others do it without them?  And are we all really headed toward EVs and a battery powered world?  All before we address real grid issues, power generation issues and battery issues?

I have no idea, but filled with healthy skepticism. 


Crafty_Dog

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At last a near infallible trading strategy!
« Reply #1502 on: April 06, 2021, 06:50:29 PM »


Crafty_Dog

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Scott Grannis
« Reply #1504 on: December 02, 2021, 04:34:51 PM »


DougMacG

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , investment 2022
« Reply #1506 on: December 29, 2021, 06:20:25 AM »
The markets will all be just fine in 2022 as the nations of the world confront inflation, stagnation, supply outages, re-regulation, energy outages, rising crime waves, new foreign policy disasters and "the everything bubble. Not to mention pandemic and the new "Black Swan" event coming.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/28/millionaires-want-to-own-a-little-less-of-everything-bubble-next-year.html

Alfred E Newman is quoted as saying,  "What, Me Worry?"  Supertramp says, "Crisis, What Crisis?   Bob Marley says, "Every little thing is gonna be alright".

13 year bull markets go on forever, right?   What could possibly go wrong?




Crafty_Dog

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1507 on: January 06, 2022, 04:55:56 AM »
Tech gets wrecked
With the Fed ready to aggressively dial back on pandemic-era easy policy, equities took a beating, especially high multiple tech stocks. Growth shares like Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Meta (FB) ended the day down around 4%, while other names did a lot worse, like Okta (OKTA) and Salesforce (CRM), which closed the session about 8% lower. Piling on the pressure was a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the rate on the 2-year Treasury note - the maturity most sensitive to Fed policy expectations - shooting to its highest level since the pandemic began in March 2020.

Analyst commentary: "People expected rate hikes this year, and that was talked about, but I don’t think people were expecting the Fed to already be speaking about letting the balance sheet run off, even as soon as the first rate hike,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance. "If you ride a wave of liquidity to the upside and that liquidity starts to go away, I don't think it's terribly surprising that you're going to see a reaction," added Kathy Jones, head of fixed income at Charles Schwab.

Even before the FOMC minutes and tech carnage, a rotation was being played out in the previous four sessions. For example, Goldman Sachs' hedge fund clients scooped up shares linked to airlines, energy and industrial names that benefit from the reopening trade and an improving economy. Value and cyclicals also outperformed despite benchmark indexes moving lower, with consumer goods and retailers like Walmart (WMT) and Walgreens (WBA) finishing the session in the green.

==============================
==============================

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477421-wall-street-breakfast-what-to-watch-in-2022?lctg=61bda83b45c6ef57b357d931&mailingid=26273154&messageid=wall_street_breakfast&serial=26273154.2251323&userid=55542170&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
« Last Edit: January 06, 2022, 04:58:38 AM by Crafty_Dog »

DougMacG

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1508 on: February 23, 2022, 10:05:57 AM »
S&P 500 Charts Are So Bad Even Bulls Are Looking to Adjust Bets

Is it time for me to get back in?   )

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/bear-market-s-p-500-calls-say-charts-getting-too-ragged-to-hold

ccp

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Buffett vs Cathie Woods
« Reply #1509 on: March 06, 2022, 10:30:29 AM »

DougMacG

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1510 on: March 15, 2022, 10:48:18 AM »
Stock markets down 6 trillion dollars year-to-date. Real estate up, but next to crash. Interest rate hikes begin tomorrow.  Up to 8, 1/4 point increases in the next year?  I suppose some of these will be delayed or canceled based on the likely economic downturn oh, and get Joe Biden through the midterms.

Oil is up. Commodities are up. What is left to invest in? Is it too late to buy guns and ammo?

G M

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1511 on: March 15, 2022, 11:02:09 AM »
Stock markets down 6 trillion dollars year-to-date. Real estate up, but next to crash. Interest rate hikes begin tomorrow.  Up to 8, 1/4 point increases in the next year?  I suppose some of these will be delayed or canceled based on the likely economic downturn oh, and get Joe Biden through the midterms.

Oil is up. Commodities are up. What is left to invest in? Is it too late to buy guns and ammo?

I just bought 3000 rounds of 9mm for 36 cents a round. I miss getting bulk 9mm for 16 cents a round, but I doubt those days are coming back.

If you don’t have weapons and the ability to use them, the food you bought will just belong to the predators that kick in your door.


ccp

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G M

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Re: buying power way down since 2000
« Reply #1513 on: May 16, 2022, 08:03:58 AM »


Crafty_Dog

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1515 on: June 10, 2022, 06:01:03 PM »
The U.S. stock market averages sold off this week with the major benchmarks on Thursday posting their largest declines in more than three weeks, ahead of Friday’s May Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data. On Friday, the CPI came in higher than expected amid soaring energy prices, which led to further stock price weakness. The May CPI rose 1.0% month-over-month versus 0.7% expected. Prices for shelter, gasoline and food were the biggest contributors. After declining in April, the energy index rose 3.9% month-over-month, with the gasoline index rising 4.1%. Core CPI (ex-food and energy) rose 0.6% versus 0.5% expected. On a year-over-year basis, CPI rose at the fastest pace since 1981, coming in at 8.6% versus 8.2% consensus. Core CPI on a year-over-year basis rose 6.0% versus 5.9% consensus. This stubbornly higher inflation increases the probability that the Fed may be more aggressive in raising its federal funds rate target higher and for longer than the current expectations, increasing the odds that the economy may be pushed into a recession. The Fed’s June interest rate decision is next week, with the central bank expected to raise the federal funds rate by a half-percentage point – a move that is expected to recur in July and may be replicated in September.

 

  It appears that stock market volatility will remain elevated throughout the summer. Although the inflation numbers may be close to peaking, the real question is how quickly inflation comes down. Inflation can be quite sticky and remain elevated for some time, causing the Fed to keep raising interest rates and accelerate unwinding its balance sheet, potentially leading us into a recession. Just this week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the U.S. is likely facing a prolonged period of elevated inflation.  In addition, the World Bank sharply lowered its global growth forecast and projected several years of high global inflation and tepid growth reminiscent of stagflation of the 1970s. Citing damage from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and supply chain bottlenecks persisting from the pandemic, the World Bank said global growth is expected to slump to 2.9% in 2022 from 5.7% in 2021, significantly lower than its January forecast of 4.1% growth. For the U.S., it forecasts growth to slow to 2.5% in 2022, 1.2% below its prior projection, and expects inflation to remain above 2%, about where it stood prior to the pandemic, at least until 2024.   

Crafty_Dog

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Scott Grannis 6/11/22
« Reply #1516 on: June 13, 2022, 08:24:16 AM »

ccp

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soothing to read Professor Siegal of Wharton
« Reply #1517 on: June 13, 2022, 07:49:56 PM »
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/wharton-professor-jeremy-siegel-one-180612220.html

in a downturn

but I sense we have not reached capitulation yet

but what do I know


DougMacG

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Re: Scott Grannis 6/11/22
« Reply #1518 on: June 13, 2022, 10:23:32 PM »
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/

Scott G:  "It's no secret that virtually every recession in the past 50 years (with the exception of the brief economic collapse of last year) was triggered by the Fed tightening monetary policy in order to bring inflation down."
...
He ends with:  "there is little reason to think that Fed tightening—which has already had a significant impact—will be as much of a threat to the economy as past tightenings have been. With one major caveat: Congress must resist Biden's pleas for more taxes and more spending. More taxes would weaken the economy and more spending would aggravate inflation pressures, but neither seem very likely in my judgment."
-----------------------------

I disagree, but time will soon tell.

The economy declined in the first quarter by 1.4%.  A recession they define as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth (decline).  Second quarter ends at the end of June.  GDPNow (Atlanta Fed) keeps dropping the Q2 forecast, now at 0.9%.  If that ends up negative, we are already in a recession and have been since the first of the year.  https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow  Even if the numbers come in exactly as stated, that is negative net growth over the last two quarters, whether they call it a recession or not.

Tightening the money supply due to inflation causes recessions, but the inflation itself is putting brakes on the economy.  Wages are not going up as fast as prices which in simple terms means - we can buy less.

Real growth is nominal growth adjusted for inflation (and the CPI greatly understates inflation).  The higher the inflation, the harder it is for nominal growth to keep up with it, (right?) and inflation right now is the highest in 40 years.

Inflation (roughly defined) is more money chasing fewer goods.  Grannis says M2 is under control, that's good, that's one side of it, but what about producing more goods (and services)?  For that, Scott says, "Congress must resist Biden's pleas for more taxes and more spending."

True but resisting making it even worse is not much of a stimulus.  What this economy needs, for one thing, is immediate energy stimulus in the form of freeing the energy producers from the current government stranglehold.  We had pipeline shutdown, the leases stopped, federal lands blocked, fracking under attack, and rhetoric that says fossil fuels will be transitioned out - before their replacement is ready or available.  That's how you get panic buying in markets, not how you get more supply, but the administration is adamant about not changing course on climate religion over economics no matter the consequence.

Here's another idea to stimulate the economy without direct tax cuts or spending changes, INDEX LONG TERM CAPTIAL GAINS TO INFLATION.  (Somebody tell Joe Biden).  Free up the capital and let it go to it's best use, there's a novel idea.

We have all these anti-growth policies and then can't figure out, where's the growth?

The more the economy grows, which is very little right now, the more squeezed energy markets are, the more prices will go up until all the inelasticity is squeezed out of the demand and people start to break.  That is the point where people have to walk, carpool or just not go - to their second job for example.  And there is no way out without changing course.

Sounds like a recession coming to me.  Unless we change, which they won't do.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2022, 06:05:13 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1519 on: June 14, 2022, 06:15:20 AM »
Very good, thoughtful post.

DougMacG

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1520 on: June 17, 2022, 06:30:25 AM »
GDP Now, Atlanta Fed estimate just dropped 0.9% since my post 3 days ago to 0.0% second quarter growth. That follows negative real growth in the first quarter.

As mentioned, the Biden recession is already well under way.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
« Last Edit: June 17, 2022, 06:33:39 AM by DougMacG »

ccp

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1521 on: June 17, 2022, 06:41:37 AM »
"the Biden recession is already well under way"

Wait Larry Summers just told us this was due to Republicans ........
so who do I believe, the Harvard genius or
Doug?

:wink:




Crafty_Dog

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WSJ
« Reply #1524 on: September 06, 2022, 03:20:37 AM »
Investors around the world are piling into U.S. stocks, even as they brace for the prospect of a rocky autumn, because they say there’s nowhere better to shelter from the turbulence in global markets.

Skyrocketing inflation, worries about a potential recession, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rising energy prices and new Covid-19 outbreaks have rattled everything from stocks to bonds to commodity prices this year.

“The U.S. looks the least challenged in a very challenging world,” said Christopher Smart, chief global strategist at Barings and head of the Barings Investment Institute. “Everybody is slowing down, but the U.S., because of the continuing strength of the jobs market, still seems to be slowing more slowly.”

Investors have added money to U.S. equity-focused stock and mutual funds for four of the past six weeks, according to Refinitiv Lipper data, while yanking money from international stock funds for 20 consecutive weeks. That’s the longest streak since a 22-week run of outflows that ended in October 2019.

DougMacG

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US Economy, FedEx biggest rate increase ever
« Reply #1525 on: September 28, 2022, 06:35:36 AM »
https://www.theepochtimes.com/keeping-up-with-inflation-fedex-announces-biggest-ever-general-rate-increase_4755206.html
--------
In 60 years Democrats went from referring to a 'rising lifts all' meaning economic growth is the key, to just rising tide means all prices go up.

Get these people away from the steering wheel!



ccp

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1528 on: September 29, 2022, 05:33:57 AM »
probably will say not so bad
and show us 50 confusing charts with bars and lines up and down
and 4 pages of discussion

and in the end
not that big a deal

our GDP is so huge we can absorb the hit with little downside


DougMacG

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Crafty_Dog

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M&R Capital on 3Q
« Reply #1532 on: October 07, 2022, 01:46:08 PM »
The stock market resumed its decline in the third quarter after the August summer rally petered out, with the averages receding to new lows. The Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates in its efforts to slow inflation, with the yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury climbing to the 4% level. As our own Paul DeSisto has pointed out, this is the highest yield for that benchmark security in fifteen years. The Fed has made clear that there will be no change of course in its policy until inflation recedes toward the 2% level. As current increases in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remain over 8%, it is evident that the Fed has its work cut out for it.

In simple terms, the rise in interest rates increases the competition that stocks face from bonds and short-term fixed income investments. Investors received very low returns on fixed income investments in recent years, as they believed in TINA – “There is no Alternative to Stocks.” But now, low risk investments in short-term Treasuries yield over 3%, and may well reach 4-5% at the end of the current tightening cycle. While these yields historically are not out of the ordinary, they would likely be accompanied by lower stock prices.

The Fed expects there to be further “collateral damage” to both economic growth and employment, and by extension to corporate earnings, caused by its plan to bring inflation under control. It is likely that the economy’s growth will slow to a crawl or even decline in the quarters ahead, and that unemployment will rise back above the 4% level. With job openings still outstripping unemployed people, it is unlikely the Fed will moderate its current policy until the labor markets are more balanced. Lastly, it is possible that the current consensus earnings estimate for the year ahead will have to be trimmed. Analysts still expect an 8.2% earnings gain, despite slowing revenue growth and the margin pressure of higher costs for most everything.

The rapid increase in interest rates has dramatically slowed the housing market, as the cost for a thirty-year conventional fixed rate mortgage has topped 7%, versus a rate of under 3% for such a loan this time last year. That combined with a 36% increase in the median price of a US home in the past two years has lowered affordability to levels last seen in 2006, according to Yardeni Research. We would expect the housing component of price inflation (including rental prices with a lag) to recede in the not-too-distant future. As the Adam Smith Institute has stated, “the cure for high price is high prices.”

While most of the financial news is not a cause for optimism, we feel constrained to point out that stock prices are well on their way to “normal” levels of valuation after years of ebullient excess. At the beginning of the current year, the S&P 500 index traded at a rich 23 times trailing earnings. Based on today’s price level, that ratio has fallen to 16.2 times, close to the average of 15.35 times since 1929. From Yardeni Research:


While the trailing P/E ratio going back over thirty years has been lower (for example, under 13 times in the year 2011 at the end of the financial crisis) it has not stayed there for long, as both earnings and prices do recover with the economy.

Although current valuations are at best a blunt tool to anticipate near term price movements, today’s prices suggest a much more favorable risk/reward level going forward for owning good quality stocks.

ccp

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Mohamed El-Erian
« Reply #1533 on: October 09, 2022, 11:25:05 AM »
Fed made historic mistakes

and may make a third one

yet despite this everyone has their jobs

https://www.yahoo.com/news/transcript-mohamed-el-erian-face-154835490.html

Crafty_Dog

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ZH: Unexplained 2.3 million jobs gap
« Reply #1534 on: November 05, 2022, 02:11:08 PM »
Something Has Snapped: Unexplained 2.3 Million Jobs Gap Emerges In Broken Payrolls Report
Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 - 05:44 PM
A simplistic, superficial take of today's jobs report would conclude that the red hot jump in nonfarm payrolls indicates a "strong hiring market" (just ignore the jump in the unemployment rate). Nothing could be further from the truth.

Recall that back in August and September, we showed that a stark divergence had opened between the Household and Establishment surveys that comprise the monthly jobs report, and since March the former has been stagnant while the latter has been rising every single month. In addition to that, full-time jobs were plunging while part-time jobs were soaring.

Fast forward to today when the inconsistencies not only continue to grow, but in some cases have becoming downright grotesque.


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Consider the following: the closely followed Establishment survey came in above expectations at 261K, above the 195K expected, and down modestly from last month's upward revised 319K...



... numbers which confirm that at a time when virtually every major tech company is announcing mass layoffs...


... the BLS has a single, political agenda - not to spoil the political climate less than a week ahead of the payrolls by painting a "suboptimal" labor market picture.

Alas, there is only so much the Department of Labor can hide under the rug because when looking at the abovementioned gap between the Household and Establishment surveys which we have been pounding the table on since the summer, it just blew out by a whopping 589K, the most since June's 608K, as a result of the 261K increase in the number of nonfarm payrolls (tracked by the Household survey) offset by a perplexing plunge in the number of people actually employed which tumbled by 328K (tracked by Establishment survey).



What is even more perplexing, is that despite the continued rise in nonfarm payrolls, the Household survey continues to telegraph growing weakness, and as of Oct 31, the gap that opened in March has since grown to a whopping 2.3 million "workers" which may or may not exist anywhere besides the spreadsheet model of some BLS political activist!



Showing this another way, there were 158.5 million employed workers in March 2022... and 158.6 million in October 2022 an increase of just 150K, during a period in which the number of payrolls (which as a reminder is the number the market follows) reportedly increased by 2.5 million!



As an aside, it appears this is not the first time the "apolitical" Bureau of Labor Statistics has pulled such a bizarre divergence off: it happened right before Obama's reelection:



And then again: right before Hillary's "100% guaranteed election (because one wouldn't want a soft economy to adversely impact her re-election odds).



It gets better: digging in even deeper into the far more accurate and nuanced Household Survey, we find that the October plunge in Employment was the result of a massive collapse in full-time jobs offset by a modest increase in part-time jobs:



In fact, as shown below, since March, the US has lost 490K full-time employees offset by an almost identical gain of 492K part-time employees, while 126K workers were forced to get more than one job over the same period.



Finally, the cherry on top: the number of Unemployed workers - also tracked by the Household Survey - jumped by 306K, rising to 6.059 million, the highest since February!



So what's going on here? The simple answer: there has been no change in the number of people actually employed, but due to deterioration in the economy, more people are losing their higher-paying, full-time jobs, and switching into much lower- paying, benefits-free part-time jobs, which also forces many to work more than one job, a rotation which picked up in earnest some time in March and which has only been captured by the Household survey. Meanwhile the Establishment survey plows on ahead with its politically-motivated approximations, seasonal adjustments, and other labor market goalseeking meant to make the Biden admin look good at least until after the midterms .

And since the Establishment survey is far slower to pick up on the nuances in employment composition, while the Household Survey has gone nowhere since March, the BLS data engineers have been busy goalseeking the Establishment Survey (with the occasional nudge from the White House especially with midterms looming) to make it appear as if the economy is growing strongly, when in reality all they are doing is applying the same erroneous seasonal adjustment factor that gave such a wrong perspective of the labor market in the aftermath of the covid pandemic (until it was all adjusted away a year ago). In other words, while the labor market is already cracking, it will take the BLS several months of veering away from reality before the government bureaucrats accept and admit what is truly taking place.

As we said back in August, "We expect that "realization" to take place just after the midterms, because the last thing the Biden administration can afford is admit the labor market is crashing in addition to the continued surge in inflation." We still hold on to this prediction: expect big negative payroll prints as soon as December.

ccp

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1535 on: November 06, 2022, 09:27:41 AM »
"As we said back in August, "We expect that "realization" to take place just after the midterms, because the last thing the Biden administration can afford is admit the labor market is crashing in addition to the continued surge in inflation." We still hold on to this prediction: expect big negative payroll prints as soon as December."

Very interesting
playing the data to find a way to beef it up or sound good.

Reminds me of a shell game ( think I lost 5 to 10 dollars 40  or more yrs ago on the street in NYC)

As we said back in August, "We expect that "realization" to take place just after the midterms, because the last thing the Biden administration can afford is admit the labor market is crashing in addition to the continued surge in inflation." We still hold on to this prediction: expect big negative payroll prints as soon as December.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1536 on: November 10, 2022, 07:56:23 AM »
Ten Year Treasury:  Under 4%

VIX:  Down from 31 to 23

Gold:  up from 1600 to 1750


ccp

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AI - chatgpt
« Reply #1538 on: January 21, 2023, 12:38:25 PM »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: US Economy, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« Reply #1539 on: January 21, 2023, 03:08:11 PM »
Please post that and follow ups on the "Intelligence and AI" thread as well.