Author Topic: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc  (Read 325341 times)


Crafty_Dog

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #301 on: March 15, 2020, 09:18:13 AM »
Seems a tad tin foil GM.  I'm not saying it can't be-- indeed given how vulnerable we have been revealed to be to Chinese antibiotic based extortion by all this, if it didn't occur to them before it surely is occurring to them now-- but that article seems really thinly sourced and highly speculative.

Anyway, here is this:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 09:29:54 AM by Crafty_Dog »

G M

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #302 on: March 15, 2020, 10:38:48 AM »
Nothing definite, but it sure is an interesting coincidence that China's only BSL-4 lab is located in Wuhan, a short distance from that alleged wet market source of the virus.


Seems a tad tin foil GM.  I'm not saying it can't be-- indeed given how vulnerable we have been revealed to be to Chinese antibiotic based extortion by all this, if it didn't occur to them before it surely is occurring to them now-- but that article seems really thinly sourced and highly speculative.

Anyway, here is this:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

Crafty_Dog

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ccp

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #305 on: March 16, 2020, 05:43:27 AM »
Just one thing about the youtube video

Wuhan virus CAN start with cold like symptoms

DougMacG

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infected monkeys become immune
« Reply #306 on: March 16, 2020, 07:28:17 AM »
Hopes for coronavirus vaccine rise after infected monkeys become immune
Primates found to have developed antibodies after being infected with Covid-19 – a discovery that suggests the immune system will fight back against the disease
Scientists have been puzzled by case of patients apparently being reinfected with the disease, but this study suggests that may not be the case
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3075438/hopes-coronavirus-vaccine-rise-after-chinese-scientists-find

DougMacG

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US: As The Number Of Cases Has Expanded, The Mortality Rate Has Declined
« Reply #307 on: March 16, 2020, 07:37:31 AM »
US #CoronaVirusDeathRate by date:

4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases)

3.69% March 9 (26 of 704)

3.01% March 10 (30 of 994)

2.95% March 11 (38 of 1,295)

2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695)

2.27% March 13 (49 of 2,247)

1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954)

1.84% March 15 (68 of 3,680)
https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1239543249704030216
As the number of cases has expanded, the mortality rate has declined. It will likely decline even further if and when those without symptoms can be diagnosed and counted.

ccp

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we are almost overwhelmed with calls
« Reply #308 on: March 16, 2020, 08:02:49 AM »
hiring more doctors

wait times up at times
overtime encouraged with bonuses

businesses calling our company

one call after another

As in Doug's post as we are able to test more then deaths rates will continue to come down
My armchair guestimate this could peak in 2.5 to 3.5 months.
if we are able to contain likely sooner

Wish I had more cash

Of course the dirty libs making this another " never waste a crises " moment for their darn programs

My favorite part of last night 's debate betwee Jewish Trotsky and Senile Old Joe
was when Bernie calls wuhan virus "ebolat"
 and a minute later senile Joe calls it "Sars"

what a laugh

I noticed Jake Tapper ran to get slow Joe out of trouble when he started rambling garbled crap at one point.

ccp

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GM for CDC director
« Reply #309 on: March 16, 2020, 08:05:04 AM »
I nominate our own GM for director of CDC who called this months ago.

leave it to a prepper !  :))

G M

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Re: GM for CDC director
« Reply #310 on: March 16, 2020, 08:14:08 AM »
I nominate our own GM for director of CDC who called this months ago.

leave it to a prepper !  :))

Well, I couldn't do a worse job...

ccp

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #311 on: March 16, 2020, 08:29:00 AM »
One would think we doctors would get the most up to date
information learned from Italy or China etc

but it is hard for even me to find

CDC which has been a gem in past is not

posting anything for us that one can't find on CNN or the website that goes to everyone.

G M

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #312 on: March 16, 2020, 08:37:40 AM »
https://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/iron.html

Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy states that in any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people":

 First, there will be those who are devoted to the goals of the organization. Examples are dedicated classroom teachers in an educational bureaucracy, many of the engineers and launch technicians and scientists at NASA, even some agricultural scientists and advisors in the former Soviet Union collective farming administration.

Secondly, there will be those dedicated to the organization itself. Examples are many of the administrators in the education system, many professors of education, many teachers union officials, much of the NASA headquarters staff, etc.

The Iron Law states that in every case the second group will gain and keep control of the organization. It will write the rules, and control promotions within the organization.

One would think we doctors would get the most up to date
information learned from Italy or China etc

but it is hard for even me to find

CDC which has been a gem in past is not

posting anything for us that one can't find on CNN or the website that goes to everyone.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #313 on: March 16, 2020, 08:37:55 AM »
I second the nomination!!!

DougMacG

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #314 on: March 16, 2020, 10:57:40 AM »
I second the nomination!!!

GM has been right on this so far.  Not many saw this leading to almost total lockdown.  People should have been prepared BEFORE they heard of any of this.  I have many more questions on preparedness for other kinds of crises and much can be learned from this one.
------------------------------------
I am still of the view that this will pass in a relatively short order but I am short on the details or vision of how that will happen.  ccp:  "My armchair guestimate this could peak in 2.5 to 3.5 months.
if we are able to contain likely sooner".  Yes, it could be worse but that gives me something to work with on a recovery scenario.

In preparedness we need to look at multiple scenarios and look at it from multiple dimensions.  Personal health, public health, economic, financial, political, geo-political.

In the doom scenario that this just covers the globe, some things get better in the aftermath.  Not for those who die of it or suffer permanent health damage from it.
------------------------------------4
On the source of it, was it a Chinese bio-weapon leak?  Crafty: "Seems a tad tin foil GM.  I'm not saying it can't be-- indeed given how vulnerable we have been revealed to be to Chinese antibiotic based extortion by all this, if it didn't occur to them before it surely is occurring to them now-- but that article seems really thinly sourced and highly speculative."

   - Yes, there is no evidence, no proof, no real sourcing.  It is only speculative, just the most plausible explanation out there at this time.  What we do know is that China hid this, lied about it, allowed it to become what it is now.  What was their motive to hide it, just habit possibly.  I would add my question to the conspiracy question, what is the other tie to Iran and the Chinese center of bio-weapons?  Were the Islamists having a cultural exchange with the Chinese communists right while China imprisons a million Muslims?  I can't think of an innocent explanation.







Crafty_Dog

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #315 on: March 16, 2020, 12:13:57 PM »
I have seen pieces by scientists-doctors saying that study of the virus itself show that is was not man created. 

DougMacG

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Coronavirus video
« Reply #316 on: March 16, 2020, 12:50:06 PM »

DougMacG

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #317 on: March 16, 2020, 01:19:07 PM »
I have seen pieces by scientists-doctors saying that study of the virus itself show that is was not man created.

Interesting point to know.  Assuming not manmade, does that mean no connection to this Chinese facility?  If it jumped from animal to human, it could have happened there or had some connection.  This outbreak is tied to their deceit and incompetence.  I think we know the outbreak was not deliberate or they wouldn't have tried to kill and contain it.  If it did leak or escape from such a facility, it means it was related to something they were contemplating, not intending in the immediate sense.

What is the Iran China connection?  Let's assume it was an innocent belt-road-train planning meeting.  Then which Chinese official(s) had it?  When did it spread?  Who else was exposed?  We are researching a pandemic killing people on 6 continents that originated in Wuhan China (coincidentally near a bio-weapons facility) and what they do in place of cooperate is hide facts, blame us and tell lies.  It makes full study difficult (understatement).

G M

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #318 on: March 16, 2020, 02:54:27 PM »
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502

I have seen pieces by scientists-doctors saying that study of the virus itself show that is was not man created.

Interesting point to know.  Assuming not manmade, does that mean no connection to this Chinese facility?  If it jumped from animal to human, it could have happened there or had some connection.  This outbreak is tied to their deceit and incompetence.  I think we know the outbreak was not deliberate or they wouldn't have tried to kill and contain it.  If it did leak or escape from such a facility, it means it was related to something they were contemplating, not intending in the immediate sense.

What is the Iran China connection?  Let's assume it was an innocent belt-road-train planning meeting.  Then which Chinese official(s) had it?  When did it spread?  Who else was exposed?  We are researching a pandemic killing people on 6 continents that originated in Wuhan China (coincidentally near a bio-weapons facility) and what they do in place of cooperate is hide facts, blame us and tell lies.  It makes full study difficult (understatement).

ccp

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I dunno : I just don't see this.
« Reply #319 on: March 16, 2020, 06:14:18 PM »
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/coronavirus-change-shop-travel-years-210000612.html

When this blows over people will once again start flying cruising again
etc.

This is a very rare event.




G M

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Re: I dunno : I just don't see this.
« Reply #320 on: March 16, 2020, 06:31:18 PM »
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/coronavirus-change-shop-travel-years-210000612.html

When this blows over people will once again start flying cruising again
etc.

This is a very rare event.

What time frame do you foresee for this to blow over?


DougMacG

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DougMacG

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #324 on: March 17, 2020, 07:49:56 AM »
G M, from another thread:  "I expect multiple waves".

Yes.  If this current round of closures curtails it, there will still be multiple waves.  People can't stay home and do nothing forever.

They closed my ski areas.  They closed my hockey arena.  I had 12 top players in our age group confirmed for tennis and they closed our indoor club (even though one of our guys runs the club and has the keys).

Instead we played winter, outdoor platform tennis last night, aka 'paddle', '(not quite) 'stick fighting with social distancing'. It goes something like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBO6v3jF_8s

ccp

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #325 on: March 17, 2020, 08:42:03 AM »
It goes something like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBO6v3jF_8s

wow great form; good action
could send to ESPN .  They need more sports now .


Isn't it hard to go from tennis to paddle ball.
In college playing tennis then going to racketball was hard because racquets different lengths.


DougMacG

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Re: Epidemic: odds
« Reply #326 on: March 17, 2020, 08:53:27 AM »
COV 19 Wuhan Virus dashboard, cases by country:
https://ncov2019.live/

If you lived on planet earth during this crisis so far, the odds you contracted a known case of this virus are:  .000000023

Significantly lower in the US.

When that number doubles or goes up 10 or 100-fold, it still rounds to zero.

G M

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Re: Epidemic: odds
« Reply #327 on: March 17, 2020, 08:57:12 AM »
COV 19 Wuhan Virus dashboard, cases by country:
https://ncov2019.live/

If you lived on planet earth during this crisis so far, the odds you contracted a known case of this virus are:  .000000023

Significantly lower in the US.

When that number doubles or goes up 10 or 100-fold, it still rounds to zero.

Subject to rapid change.

ccp

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still waiting for ubiquitous testing
« Reply #328 on: March 17, 2020, 09:56:15 AM »
I am telling most people who call in sick to quarantine themselves for 2 weeks
unless it is near certain it is not corona
unfortunately most of the time we can't tell

so i wind up having to tell people to stay home

 a lot of people calling with subjective shortness of breath

I can't tell if anxiety or real

sometimes.

employers also calling anyone who travelled or with a cough or sniffle to call us and get a release

Are not the posters here all over 60?

 :-o

DougMacG

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #329 on: March 17, 2020, 10:08:01 AM »
[Odds of contracting virus] "Subject to rapid change."

Yes.  And the odds that your finances, work and day to day activities are affected by it are now 100%.
----------------------------
[Exercise/recreation during the crisis]
ccp:  "Isn't it hard to go from tennis to paddle ball.
In college playing tennis then going to racketball was hard because racquets different lengths."

The mind/body is amazing in its ability to adapt.  At a competitive level you wouldn't want to mix the sports too much.  For me, the limiting factor is physical / mobility, so any exercise and movement in one is helpful in the others.  Racquetball is wristier than tennis so the stroke has to be different.  Hockey for me has the hardest hand to eye, to pick a puck out of the air with the blade of the stick so far from the eye, it's hit and miss.  Baseball even harder, round bat to hit a round moving ball at just the right angle.  Even Ty Cobb only batted .366    Given that, golf should be easy.  The ball is just sitting there!  In golf, the clubs in the bag are all different lengths intentionally.  That isn't what makes it hard...

G M

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Re: still waiting for ubiquitous testing
« Reply #330 on: March 17, 2020, 10:28:44 AM »
I am telling most people who call in sick to quarantine themselves for 2 weeks
unless it is near certain it is not corona
unfortunately most of the time we can't tell

so i wind up having to tell people to stay home

 a lot of people calling with subjective shortness of breath

I can't tell if anxiety or real

sometimes.

employers also calling anyone who travelled or with a cough or sniffle to call us and get a release

Are not the posters here all over 60?

 :-o

I am not yet 50.

ccp

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TRump mad at Jrod
« Reply #331 on: March 17, 2020, 04:17:36 PM »
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/trump-awakens-to-the-covid-19-danger

my question is why was he listening to him to start with?

ccp

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #332 on: March 17, 2020, 05:09:53 PM »
GM

"I am not yet 50."

GM you may have to carry on the forum for us ........ :|

DougMacG

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The virus discriminates
« Reply #333 on: March 18, 2020, 06:03:21 AM »
https://coloradosun.com/2020/03/16/gunnison-county-coronavirus-restaurant-bar-ban/
Gunnison County bans restaurants, bars from serving people 60 and older to slow coronavirus spread
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr. ccp:  "Are not the posters here all over 60?"

63, young and healthy from my perspective.  Just realized my daughter is being so careful around me because she thinks I'm elderly, at risk.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 07:03:18 AM by DougMacG »

DougMacG

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Corona Is Slowing Down, Humanity Will Survive, Says Biophysicist Michael Levitt
Nobel laureate and Stanford professor Michael Levitt unexpectedly became a reassuring figure in China at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. Now he assures Israelis: statistics show the virus is on a downturn

https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632,00.html

ccp

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rambling thoughts
« Reply #335 on: March 18, 2020, 08:25:36 AM »
Thanks Doug

for the post

if one reads drudge the world will end soon
we will all be on streets killing each other for the right to eat the remaining cats rabbits and possums

Trump vs the Dems
can't stop falling all over themselves to spend more than the other to show that they are doing more than the other side

yes  I get it for the people out of work it sucks big time
and I do fear for elderly (I am 62 and not as trim the past yr as the jocks on this site)
  and those with serious chronic conditions

This is the first real test of the nation in my life time
 I did not live through WW 1. the 1918 to 1919 flu pandemic or WW 2
I did not live in Europe during the Iron Curtain etc

We kind of did during the cold war but that was not ever the same during my life
maybe it was in the later 40 s or early 50 s though  with nuclear testing going off all over

Hopefully this will re awaken the American spirit and not the Left ist spirit

we will see.....


Crafty_Dog

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G M

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Re: Ventilators
« Reply #337 on: March 18, 2020, 11:17:30 AM »

Crafty_Dog

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SCary new model
« Reply #338 on: March 18, 2020, 11:36:35 AM »
Without them we will never find out.

===============================

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-uk-model-study/index.html






DougMacG

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #343 on: March 18, 2020, 07:16:38 PM »
The exponential growth curve of the virus is theoretical.  It assumes people make no changes to their behavior, to anything, which of course is not possible is this more interconnected than ever before world.  In fact the curves are already flattening in every country:


G M

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #344 on: March 18, 2020, 08:12:02 PM »
All information from China should be discarded. Italy's is still skyrocketing in deaths. It's very premature to assume anything.




The exponential growth curve of the virus is theoretical.  It assumes people make no changes to their behavior, to anything, which of course is not possible is this more interconnected than ever before world.  In fact the curves are already flattening in every country:



DougMacG

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Re: Epidemics: Bird Flu, TB, AIDs, Superbugs, Ebola, etc
« Reply #345 on: March 19, 2020, 08:43:55 AM »
All information from [the regime of] China should be discarded.  But there are other data points.

"Italy's is still skyrocketing in deaths."  - Good point, but the curve is bending.  In Italy, young people have contact with their elders.  Not so much here.
99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

As MIT Prof Jonathon Gruber might coldly observe, this is lowering our health care costs.

"It's very premature to assume anything."    - Absolutely!

Also look at South Korea and Singapore.  They took extreme measures and are getting good results.
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/03/19/us/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve-countries-promo-1584592592793/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve-countries-promo-1584592592793-threeByTwoMediumAt2X-v5.png?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale&width=1100

There will be more and better testing soon.  Someday hand sanitizers (and toilet paper) will return to the shelves. 

Imagine (to the tune of John Lennon) wand washing stations at the front of the restaurants.  Tongs in the buffet lines that aren't touched by every finger licking dirty hand and then dropped in the food.  Imagine subsidies for private automobiles equal to those for mass transit.   Imagine all the people ... practicing basic, first-world hygiene. 
-------------------------
Here's a thought:

If you were the enemy or an alien force and wanted to weaken or destroy the human species, you would kill off the youngest and strongest, not the oldest and weakest.

War can kill off the youngest and strongest - and we come back from it.  Traffic deaths hit every category and perhaps the young and healthy worst and we don't blink unless it's someone we know.  This, except for all the carnage and grieving, makes us stronger.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 09:06:28 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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DougMacG

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Research on Wuhan Coronavirus
« Reply #348 on: March 20, 2020, 09:22:25 AM »
Too bad this chart doesn't start at or before Nov 17, the first known outbreak of the crisis:


ccp

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Fear
« Reply #349 on: March 20, 2020, 11:36:53 AM »
Is going up with the worsening news every day

people calling with panic attacks, any little sore throat sniffle
discomfort in the chest

people with colds flu
  crying they have this disease and might die.
loved ones all fearful for their older relatives

Terrible
I am almost crying feeling bad for them

most are low risk
have not anyone to hospital but am quarantining most people