Author Topic: The US Congress; Congressional races (Read 377345 times)

ccp · « **Reply #500 on:** April 25, 2018, 01:57:49 PM »

" ccp, Any inside word on the gop mess in Missouri?
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/23/mccaskill-missouri-greitens-republicans-senate-545393"

Hey Doug,

Actually this is the first I have heard of any of this.

I could email my nephew who is running Hawley's campaign but frankly I doubt I would get any substantive response.
He has never shared any inside stuff with me. Or even my sister other then vague general comments. like "yes " "no" " agree" "hope so"
etc.

I let you know if I do . I don't even know if I should email him about this. It sounds like he would already has had his hands full. I will copy my sister though.
It would be crime *if this* brings him down - for no fault of his own. What is with this governor - another sleazy pol? At least there is loads of time to put out this fire but I suppose it would help if the governor would get out of the way. Do we even know it the allegations are true?

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #501 on:** April 30, 2018, 01:35:05 PM »

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/apr/29/democrats-midterm-election-blue-wave-fades-white-h/?utm_source=Boomtrain&utm_medium=manual&utm_campaign=20171227&utm_term=newsletter&utm_content=morning

ccp · « **Reply #502 on:** May 07, 2018, 10:01:54 AM »

FWIW one of CD's unfavorite radio hosts , Savage, was saying he is the real deal and with Trump. Levin's Liberty Score for him is only 36% . I am not so sure. Perhaps he is playing to Trump's base vying to be speaker and not really coming clean with his motives. OTOH maybe this is really what he believes and he was being semi rhino prior.
Regardless I find this refreshing from someone who may be the new speaker:

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2018/05/07/mccarthy-dems-want-to-capture-this-government-to-try-to-impeach-or-block-bills-or-raise-taxes/

Have we EVER heard anything like this from Ryan?

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #503 on:** May 07, 2018, 11:04:35 AM »

Certainly hope so and all to the good.

I do remember him as saying something seriously stupid about Rep. Gowdy's Benghazi investigation that played right into Dem hands that it was politically motivated.

ccp · « **Reply #504 on:** May 07, 2018, 11:18:44 AM »

" I do remember him as saying something seriously stupid about Rep. Gowdy's Benghazi investigation that played right into Dem hands "

Yes. I remember that now. In one off the cuff remark he basically undercut the entire Benghazi investigation.

DougMacG · « **Reply #505 on:** May 07, 2018, 12:09:25 PM »

Quote from: Crafty_Dog on May 07, 2018, 11:04:35 AM

Certainly hope so and all to the good.

I do remember him as saying something seriously stupid about Rep. Gowdy's Benghazi investigation that played right into Dem hands that it was politically motivated.

Yes, it was McCarthy:
https://www.cnn.com/2015/10/02/politics/mccarthy-chaffetz-house-speaker/index.html

McCarthy's comments from earlier this week -- where he boasted that Clinton's "numbers are dropping" because of the work of the Benghazi committee -- became fodder for Democrats, who said it showed the panel was simply designed as a political witch hunt to target the Democratic frontrunner's record as secretary of state.

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #506 on:** May 10, 2018, 08:33:03 AM »

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/387033-tensions-on-immigration-erupt-in-the-house-gop?userid=188403

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #507 on:** May 10, 2018, 10:03:30 AM »

second post

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180101-20180509/collapsed/true

DougMacG · « **Reply #508 on:** May 10, 2018, 11:52:18 AM »

Quote from: Crafty_Dog on May 10, 2018, 10:03:30 AM

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180101-20180509/collapsed/true

Blue wave gone? What about Stormy? The oligarch?

R's can be down at least 5% in these polls and still hold the House. The midterm election result will not be determined by a national popular vote. In the Senate, some conservative states are key. At this point R's might gain in the Senate.

It's a big deal that Republicans closed the gap - mostly by letting the other side speak. But the don't know/refuse to answer is greater than the margin and the margin of error combined. Which side refuses to answer? Or are these the people who don't vote anyway?

Much yet to happen between now and Nov. but Republicans actually have a great opportunity.

A damning Mueller report? I would not be surprised to see something big and good happen with N. Korea. The other accomplishments mentioned lately give conservatives a reason to come out. The economic numbers I expect to be very good. Good enough that people see it and feel it and win the tax cut debate. Congress will take another vote on tax cuts in Sept-Oct to make the (mostly) middle class individual cuts permanent. The Heidi Heitkamps, Joe Manchins and Donellys of the election will be put on the spot. And Republicans need to do something positive to open up healthcare plans before the election. Another Supreme Court confirmation fight during this time? I think that favors Republicans and conservatives. And then you have the Kanyes and the Candace Owens of the political spectrum coming out. He is influential and she is extremely sharp and charismatic.

I would not bet a penny on Democrats in spite of all we've been hearing.

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #509 on:** May 10, 2018, 09:46:15 PM »

Word is that Horowitz's Inspector General report is going to be pretty damning too , , ,

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #510 on:** May 14, 2018, 11:12:51 AM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/14/us/politics/pence-trump-midterms.html?nl=top-stories&nlid=49641193ries&ref=cta

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #511 on:** May 14, 2018, 05:24:05 PM »

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/387664-trump-to-press-gop-on-changing-senate-rules?userid=188403

DougMacG · « **Reply #512 on:** May 18, 2018, 01:25:30 PM »

Interesting analysis from Hoover Institution at the link. First I would add that Republicans are now leading in key Senate races.

My take on the House is that the Republicans' breakeven point is somewhere between 5 and 9% down on the generic ballot polling. It is skewed slightly by polling error and by the makeup of the districts. The concentration of Dems in Pelosi's or Maxine Waters' district for example doesn't tell us anything about swing districts.

The author has the latest generic polling at -9%. Other polls since have it more like -3%. At -9, the R's lose ground and probably lose the House. At -3, they will hold on. (My take.) At -10 or more, it is a blue wave.

Trump's approval needs a translation of similar adjustment. His breakeven point isn't 50% but it certainly needs to be at least equal and perhaps slightly better than now to hold the House.

I'm surprised at what low importance they put on the economy. That is partly because of other issues, like war and peace, and scandals come forward. Many unknowns on war, peace and scandal (in Nov.) at this point.

I would add one more curve ball for this year, where are we on Health care costs at election time? Did R' make it better or make it worse, and who wins that argument?
-----------------------
https://www.hoover.org/research/will-democrats-take-over-house

DougMacG · « **Reply #513 on:** May 20, 2018, 09:42:47 AM »

Update to previous post where author saw latest generic ballot polling at Dems +9, Real Clear Politics now shows Dems at +4 which could mean close to zero seat gain for Dems in the House.

RCP Average   4/25 - 5/15   --   44.2   40.2   Democrats +4.0
Economist/YouGov   5/13 - 5/15   1231 RV   42   37   Democrats +5
Reuters/Ipsos   5/11 - 5/15   1290 RV   38   37   Democrats +1
Rasmussen Reports   5/6 - 5/10   2500 LV   46   40   Democrats +6
CNN   5/2 - 5/5   901 RV   47   44   Democrats +3
Pew Research   4/25 - 5/1   1221 RV   48   43   Democrats +5

Meaningless because there are 6 months to go and that individual seats aren't won with generic votes, but as things stand now this is not a "blue wave".

RCP also shows R's leading to take 3 Dem Senate seats, WV, Indiana and FL, and holding in their closest seat (NV) within the margin of error. Plus a possible pickup of Heitkamp seat in North Dakota, not in their polling.

It is not a 'blue wave' election if Republicans gain 4 seats in the US Senate.

DougMacG · « **Reply #514 on:** May 21, 2018, 01:40:40 PM »

I have no intention of following untimely polls one by one, but a 16 point move in a few weeks time is remarkable:
http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/week/filters/PD1:1/dates/20170601-20180523/collapsed/true
Republicans and Democrats tied - with young voters!

Maybe now they will tell us how unreliable early polling can be.

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #515 on:** May 25, 2018, 08:05:27 AM »

https://clarionproject.org/we-found-a-candidate-that-gets-it/

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #516 on:** May 27, 2018, 11:46:10 AM »

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/389451-dem-money-floods-calif-primaries-to-avert-electoral-disaster?userid=188403

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #517 on:** May 28, 2018, 02:17:18 PM »

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/389463-spurning-left-centrist-dems-tout-bank-law-for-midterms?userid=188403

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #518 on:** May 29, 2018, 10:40:51 AM »

http://www.capoliticalreview.com/capoliticalnewsandviews/pray-for-the-health-of-san-fran-nan-pelosi-to-keep-the-house-gop/

ccp · « **Reply #519 on:** May 30, 2018, 04:17:58 AM »

We will see what happens now:

http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article212114314.html

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #520 on:** May 30, 2018, 06:35:26 AM »

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/389801-senate-grapples-with-prison-reform-bill?userid=188403

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #521 on:** June 05, 2018, 10:53:24 AM »

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/390784-mcconnell-cancels-senates-august-recess?userid=188403

DougMacG · « **Reply #522 on:** June 05, 2018, 02:57:12 PM »

Quote from: Crafty_Dog on June 05, 2018, 10:53:24 AM

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/390784-mcconnell-cancels-senates-august-recess?userid=188403

Good. They need a more recent accomplishment or two. Health care market expansion. Make individual tax rate cuts permanent. Maybe they have a supreme Court confirmation planned.

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #523 on:** June 05, 2018, 06:40:56 PM »

More judicial confirmations!!!

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #524 on:** June 06, 2018, 07:51:03 AM »

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/390898-dem-leaders-embrace-pay-go?userid=188403

DougMacG · « **Reply #525 on:** June 06, 2018, 01:04:12 PM »

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/06/sen-bob-menendezs-poor-primary-showing-creates-a-new-headache-for-democrats-in-new-jersey.html

DougMacG · « **Reply #526 on:** June 08, 2018, 08:44:44 AM »

I think this bodes well for the general election and for governing if he wins.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/06/07/club_for_growth_notches_another_win_137218.html

Combined R vote: 155,000
Incumbent uncontested Tester (D) vote 113,000
Big Blue wave might miss crucial Montana US Senate seat

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #527 on:** June 13, 2018, 09:07:22 AM »

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/391858-sanford-defeated-in-primary-defined-by-support-for-trump?userid=188403

DougMacG · « **Reply #528 on:** June 18, 2018, 09:05:21 AM »

Republicans in the House are defending nine seats in Democrat PVI (partisan voting index) districts, 23 in districts HRC won but most of those were by margins less than her national vote.

In other words, Republicans are far less exposed than parties were in other wave elections such as 1994 and 2006.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/05/31/what_if_2006_model_isnt_enough_for_democrats_137159.html

[Meanwhile R's lead in several key Senate races - look like they will hold the White house for at least another 2 years.]

DougMacG · « **Reply #529 on:** June 19, 2018, 09:24:47 AM »

Trump heads to Duluth MN for a rally tomorrow.

Home of the only state Ronald Reagan never won, Trump lost MN by less than the vote margin of states Hillary and Jill Stein were re-counting.

Dems are counting the seats they need to flip to take the House. Yes there are enough seats in play, but remember it is only the net-flip that counts. For every seat R's take from D's, the Dem take the House map gets harder.

In MN, R's have the opportunity to flip two seats the other way.

In the 8th District the incumbent D is not running for reelection. The Dems were divided, did not endorse in the convention. Republicans have a solid candidate and the politics out-state have changed since friends my age grew up on the North Shore (f Lake Superior) and on the Iron Range.

https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/government-and-politics/4440848-support-builds-stauber-some-iron-range-favor-republican-nominee
https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2018/05/05/republicans-endorse-stauber-8th-district/

Waves have amplitude and direction. It's not a wave if some seats flip one way and others flip the other way.

Stir up a little trouble and give to Pete Stauber's campaign. )
https://petestauberforcongress.com/
https://secure.stauberforcongress.com/donate

https://www.buzzfeed.com/henrygomez/minnesota-is-the-biggest-battleground-of-the-midterms-and?utm_term=.orq46PPa0N#.diN3xood5V

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #530 on:** June 26, 2018, 07:16:42 PM »

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/394318-crowley-loses-in-new-york-dem-primary?userid=188403

DougMacG · « **Reply #531 on:** July 06, 2018, 08:03:00 AM »

This is big, if true.
https://pjmedia.com/election/white-millennials-are-leaving-the-democratic-party-as-walk-away-campaign-picks-up-steam/

"39 percent said that "if the election for U.S. Congress were held today," they would vote for the Republican in the district where they live. Another 39 percent said they would vote for the Democrat.

This represented a nine-point shift away from Democrats since 2016. That year, only 33 percent of young white voters said they would elect a Republican to Congress, while 47 percent said they would choose a Democrat."

- I'm not sure how they measure 9 point swing but this if true is the start of something big.

DougMacG · « **Reply #532 on:** July 10, 2018, 07:49:04 AM »

10 Democratic Senators are running for reelection in states that Trump won. (Why?)

In 2016, Antonin Scalia died unexpectedly, Pres. Obama nominated a qualified moderate to try to entice the Republican Senate to confirm, but Sen. McConnell and the normally spineless, risk averse Republicans instead chose to push the Supreme Court question into the Presidential election. Why? Because these questions favor our side. It's hard to tell by their other votes sometimes and positions on issues but people still want the constitution upheld.

Now we face a very similar situation. Timing-wise, this election and this confirmation have now just merged.

If you are Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly, Bill Nelson, Claire McCaskill, Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester, Tammy Baldwin, Bob Casey, Debbie Stabenow, you have a choice to make. Support the principles of your party or the principles of your constituents in your state.

The two Republicans considered iffy on confirmation, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski are not up for reelection. Additionally, Rand Paul may oppose Kavanaugh on NSA privacy issues. If any or all of these R's defect, that puts even more pressure on the 'red state' Democrats up for reelection.

For the vulnerable Dems, if they oppose the President they blow the whole story they bring to the electorate about their independence from their unpopular party and Trump and their Republican opponents will be energized. If they succeed in defeating this nominee, there will not be time to run a new nomination through before the election and they could lose their seat and Trump and the new Senate could put the same great nominee through again - with ease. In other words, nothing accomplished for Heitkamp et al. There will probably never be a Dem Senator again from North Dakota is she screws this up, and consequences and effects in the other states as well.

To this discussion I would add so called blue states like MN where Trump lost by only one point and his popularity has risen since then, we have both Dem Senators up for reelection. Trump won 5 out of 8 congressional districts in MN and 78 out of 87 counties. These two Senators will vote no reflexively and will win anyway, but their support for only representing only roughly half of their constituents will be fully exposed.

ccp · « **Reply #533 on:** July 24, 2018, 06:31:23 PM »

Senate:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

House:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

Governorships:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/2018_elections_governor_map.html

DougMacG · « **Reply #534 on:** July 25, 2018, 09:05:05 AM »

http://abcstlouis.com/news/local/companies-tied-to-mccaskills-husband-reaped-131-million-in-federal-money-since-2007

G M · « **Reply #535 on:** August 07, 2018, 06:13:00 AM »

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/08/vdh-for-elizabeth-heng.php

DougMacG · « **Reply #536 on:** August 08, 2018, 05:37:55 AM »

If the election were held today, and it isn't, Democrats would take the house and Republicans would gain a few seats in the senate.

The party out of power averages of 30 seat gain in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections. Democrats are getting better turnout this year, but they don't have enough Democrats in North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri and other states..

The number of Americans who say we are headed in the right direction is at a 12-year High, doubled since Obama, above 50% for the first time since 2005.
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/ibd-tipp-poll-optimism/

Black and Hispanic unemployment rates at record lows. Doubling of the economic growth rate. Millions coming back off of food stamps and disability. There is plenty of message available. There's plenty more to be done. A Nancy Pelosi house will begin to dismantle all the gains.

A certain president said it's easy to be presidential. It's time to get some focus and give it a try.

DougMacG · « **Reply #537 on:** August 08, 2018, 07:47:50 AM »

IBD TIPP has Republicans pulling even with Democrats.
Millennials in particular have record optimism.
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/ibd-tipp-poll-optimism/

Rasmussen says 50% now give Trump credit for the improved economy while 40% give Obama credit for the Trump economy.

It was the policy change arrow that turned around the economy and those policies were all opposed by the Pelosi Democrats. Trump and the Republicans have less than 3 months to convert facts into people walking into a voting booth and pulling the lever R.

There are a whole bunch of people and groups including Democrats that know that Democrat economic policies are bad for the economy. Converting those into admitted, voting Republicans no one seems to know how to do.

ccp · « **Reply #538 on:** August 08, 2018, 08:15:20 AM »

"while 40% give Obama credit for the Trump economy."

And that 40 % is , like a dead sperm, immotile .

That number will NEVER be breached.

DougMacG · « **Reply #539 on:** August 08, 2018, 12:52:54 PM »

Quote from: ccp on August 08, 2018, 08:15:20 AM

" 40% give Obama credit for the Trump economy."

And that 40 % is , like a dead sperm, immotile .

That number will NEVER be breached.

That's right. The problem is that the portion that cannot be moved even with convincing facts includes the media and academia. We will always be swimming against the current even when the facts are this obvious.

ccp · « **Reply #540 on:** August 08, 2018, 02:04:33 PM »

"The problem is that the portion that cannot be moved even with convincing facts includes the media and academia"

Yup

The only direction they move is Left .

The only outlets we have is Fox and Radio and just a few others like Michael Goodwin of the NY Post .

And if the LEFT had it's way they would shut those outlets down to.

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #541 on:** August 08, 2018, 02:21:31 PM »

Which is why FOX is #1.

DougMacG · « **Reply #542 on:** August 08, 2018, 02:40:16 PM »

Looking closer at Ohio 12:
Did keep bragging how close they come in Republican District but they have been running candidates that don't agree with their national platform and refuse to support their leader for speaker. Trickery did not win them this seat, nor would honesty.

ccp · « **Reply #543 on:** August 11, 2018, 05:16:36 PM »

were somehow protected from insider trading?

https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/08/11/62-must-win-gop-held-seats-after-indictment-of-chris-collins/

ccp · « **Reply #544 on:** August 12, 2018, 06:42:43 AM »

https://www.westernjournal.com/dick-morris-district-by-district-gop-changes-in-house-races/

of course he is the guy who predicted Romney would win.................

Crafty_Dog · « **Reply #545 on:** September 02, 2018, 05:46:04 AM »

I confess I'm not sure what to make of these ideas:

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/403531-dems-vow-rules-overhaul-empower-members-if-house-flips

ccp · « **Reply #546 on:** September 04, 2018, 06:28:43 PM »

https://www.spartareport.com/2018/09/scotus-sherpa-jon-kyl-replace-john-mccain/

DougMacG · « **Reply #547 on:** September 05, 2018, 07:42:38 AM »

Quote from: ccp on September 04, 2018, 06:28:43 PM

https://www.spartareport.com/2018/09/scotus-sherpa-jon-kyl-replace-john-mccain/

John Kyl is the best pick to replace McCain at this time. We need a supreme court nominee confirmed, we need a budget and some other legislation and we need to win the other Arizona Senate seat this year . We are lucky to have Doug Ducey as governor of Arizona to make this pick and he needs to win his own election. Too bad Kyl won't run for reelection, but if he resigns after this session Ducey can appoint someone else such as Kelli Ward to serve and then run as an incumbent.

ccp · « **Reply #548 on:** September 11, 2018, 02:37:30 PM »

anyone else getting texts from Newt and Karl Rove for fundraising ?

not clear if these are real or frauds.

ccp · « **Reply #549 on:** September 12, 2018, 05:01:37 AM »

but also foolish to ignore:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/406204-poll-dems-lead-gop-by-14-points-on-generic-house-ballot

If true the only explanation I can think of is Trump feeding into the MSM and the frenzy to get him.

It is very hard to keep my spirits up day after day of the bashing and the Trump tweets.

News:

Author Topic: The US Congress; Congressional races (Read 377345 times)