Author Topic: Political Economics  (Read 734561 times)


G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 24013
    • View Profile
Re: CNN: "THIS is why stagflation won't come to America"
« Reply #2201 on: September 04, 2022, 08:46:13 AM »
All the military age males coming across the border are going to do what when they arrive at the destinations?

CNN: "THIS is why stagflation won't come to America"

"The US economy added another 315,000 jobs in August after tacking on more than half a million jobs in July."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/02/perspectives/stagflation-economy-jobs-labor-market/index.html
   - CNN Sept 2.

Oops, Jobs report revised downward:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/03/economy/august-jobs-report/index.html
"Only 235,000 jobs were added back to the economy last month, the lowest number since January, vastly missing economists' expectations."
   - CNN Sept 3.

Jobs report was overstated by 80,000 jobs, 34%.  How does THAT happen?

From the article above, Point 2: "The unemployment rate is 3.7%, not far from a 50-year low."

The unemployment rate is reported artificially low due to the record numbers leaving or have left the workforce.   "The unemployment rate is rising"https://finance.yahoo.com/video/august-jobs-report-unemployment-rises-124916008.html
Inconvenient truth.

What does 3.7 unemployment mean?
Out of a population of 335 million, oops that just went up at the southern border while writing this,
84 Million people work full time in the private sector supporting 148 million receiving benefits and the millions who work for the government, federal, state and local.
https://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/terence-p-jeffrey/86m-full-time-private-sector-workers-sustain-148m-benefit-takers
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 60861
    • View Profile
Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2202 on: September 04, 2022, 12:39:41 PM »
Any good charts on the labor participation rate?


DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 16131
    • View Profile
Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2204 on: September 05, 2022, 06:48:17 AM »
Any good charts on the labor participation rate?

Yes:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

(Please post the chart if possible. I can't post the image with my phone.)

Note that we are downwardly approaching the rate from before women entered the workforce.

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 60861
    • View Profile
Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2205 on: September 05, 2022, 08:27:14 AM »
Thank you, very helpful to see the trends over time. 

I wonder what the rate is right now?

The participation rate seems relevant to me in discussion of the meaning of the unemployment rate.

Also, highly relevant are the numbers about unfilled jobs and whether they are skilled or not (welder or waiter) that sort of thing-- my wife challenged me on this and I would love to be able to back her up haha.


Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 60861
    • View Profile
WT: Behind the latest job numbers
« Reply #2206 on: September 07, 2022, 03:23:14 AM »
The latest jobs numbers seem impressive — until you look closer

The labor market, like the rest of the economy, is anemic

By E.J. Antoni

The latest Labor Department employment report shows the economy added 315,000 jobs in August, ordinarily a healthy increase and sign of a robust economy. Sadly, the devil is in the details, which shows that the labor market is running on fumes. The report, like the economy as a whole, looks good from afar but is far from good.

The first red flag in the report was revisions to the previous two months, which totaled 107,000 to the downside. So about a third of the jobs added in August were jobs we thought the economy already had.

While this headline jobs number comes from a survey of businesses, the unemployment rate and other details come from a survey of households, and that also contained troubling data. The household survey actually peaked back in March and has never recovered to its prepandemic level. And while labor force participation rose overall in August, a healthy indicator, it fell for Black people, as did the number of Black people employed.

Yet another cause for alarm is weekly earnings, which were flat in August. When those numbers are adjusted for inflation, real weekly earnings will be negative; that means workers are demonstrably poorer because prices are rising faster than incomes.

These stagnating weekly earnings are not surprising when other data is considered. Businesses are facing tremendous uncertainty and are hiring fewer full-time employees and more part-time ones. The number of full-time workers peaked in May and continued falling in August. Although wages are rising, the average workweek continues to decline, so weekly earnings are still flat.

But there are still more problems under the hood. The survey of businesses allows for double counting of some jobholders, and there is considerable evidence that this doublecounting has accelerated recently. For example, people holding multiple jobs are counted for each job they have. Also, when someone transitions from self-employment to working for someone else, that is counted as a new job, even though there is no net gain in employment.

The result is that of the 5.8 million jobs recovered in the last year, approximately 1.3 million are double-counting. For August, the double-counting was approximately 208,000.

Accounting for this and the downward revisions from the previous two months, there were technically no jobs added in August.

The headline jobs number appears strong, but the reality of the labor market, like the rest of the economy, is more anemic. The economy already contracted in the first half of the year and the headwinds are building. For example, the housing market is in free fall, with the typical monthly mortgage payment up 54% to over $1,900 in the last year, while home builder sentiment has collapsed, falling every month this year and down 42% since December. But the trend is broader than the housing market. The Conference Board’s leading economic indicators have trended down for the last six months and, disturbingly, show new orders slowing. Other data from Federal Reserve Banks in Dallas, Philadelphia, Richmond, New York, and Chicago also show new orders declining.

This is troubling because current levels of business activity are only being sustained by a near-record backlog of unfilled orders, which are not being replaced by new orders. Once businesses work through those unfilled orders, there won’t be enough new orders to replace them.

That translates into reduced future output and layoffs, which means unemployment. So, the monthly headline job numbers seen in the news are not only weaker than they appear, but even this illusion will be disappearing soon. These figures are the swan song of an anemic economy weighed down by President Biden’s inflation, regulation, and taxation.

E.J. Antoni is a research fellow for re-gional economics in The Heritage Foun-dation’s Center for Data Analysis and a senior fellow at Committee to Unleash Prosperity

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 16131
    • View Profile
Policies of Decline: Household wealth falls RECORD $6.1 TRILLION in 2nd qtr
« Reply #2207 on: September 10, 2022, 09:21:28 AM »
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-household-wealth-falls-again-second-quarter-fed-says-2022-09-09/

But "experts" don't know if we're in a recession.

"Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. household wealth fell by a record $6.1 trillion in the second quarter to its lowest in a year as a bear market in stocks far outweighed further gains in real estate values, a Federal Reserve report showed on Friday.

Household net worth tumbled to $143.8 trillion at the end of June from $149.9 trillion at the end of March, its second consecutive quarterly decline, the Fed's quarterly snapshot of the national balance sheet showed. Through June, Americans' collective wealth had fallen by more than $6.2 trillion from a record $150 trillion at the end of 2021."


Americans' record wealth was in 2021.  Weird, isn't that the year Trump left office.

We had "job growth" from shutdown businesses reopening, and decline ever since.

No mention of underlying causation, just that markets dropped.

The markets dropped because PEOPLE LOST CONFIDENCE after their government enacted policies of decline.

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 16131
    • View Profile
If you support Fiscal Responsibility, you might be a MAGA Republican
« Reply #2208 on: September 10, 2022, 09:38:19 AM »
https://www.americanexperiment.org/if-you-support-fiscal-responsibility-you-might-be-a-maga-republican/

If you support fiscal responsibility, you might be a ‘MAGA Republican’

Last week, President Biden gave a speech outside Independence National Historical Park in Philadelphia, where he said “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic.” Americans were assured that “This was not a speech targeting all Republicans:” “I want to be very clear,” the president said, “Not every Republican, not even the majority of Republicans, are MAGA Republicans.”

One would certainly not want to be an extremist who “threatens the very foundations of our republic,” so how do you know if you’re a ‘MAGA Republican’? Fortunately, President Biden has offered some detail on what it is that ‘MAGA Republicans’ believe:

Joe Biden   @JoeBiden
Republicans have pushed an ultra-MAGA agenda to:

—Threaten Social Security and Medicare
—Raise taxes on working families
—Give big corporations and billionaires tax breaks
7:35 AM · Sep 9, 2022

The GOP has said little recently about entitlement reform which is a shame. Social Security, for example, is an absolute dog of a policy which is on a fast track to insolvency. As I wrote in 2019:

Social Security is estimated to run out of reserves in 2034, after which benefits would have to be reduced by about 25 percent to keep spending within available annual revenue. Over 75 years, Social Security has an unfunded liability of $13.9 trillion.

The Medicare hospital insurance trust fund will run out of reserves in 2026. Medicare’s second trust fund, for physician and outpatient services and for prescription drugs, is permanently “solvent” because it has an unlimited call on the general fund of the Treasury—the incomes of future taxpayers. Premiums paid by the beneficiaries will cover only about 25 percent of program costs; the rest of the spending is unfinanced. Medicare’s overall unfunded liability over 75 years is more than $37 trillion.



This is only going to get worse. According to Census Bureau projections, by 2030 each 100 working-age Americans will be supporting 35 retirees, and this could rise to 42 by 2060. Another way to think of this is to calculate the number of retirees each worker must support. In 1946, the burden of one retiree was shared between 42 workers. Today, according to the SSA, roughly three workers cover each retiree’s Social Security and Medicare benefits. By 2030, however, there will be only two workers supporting each retiree.

In other words, a working couple will have to support not only themselves and their family but also someone outside the family thanks to Social Security and Medicare.

To make Social Security solvent again, the payroll tax rate would need to be hiked immediately from 12.4 percent to 15.2 percent, or Social Security benefits would need to be cut on a permanent basis by about 17 percent. According to economists Roger LeRoy Miller, Daniel K. Benjamin, and Douglass C. North:

“[F]or Social Security and Medicare to stay as they are, the payroll tax rate may have to rise to 25 percent of wages over the next decade. And a payroll tax rate of 40 percent is not unlikely by the middle of the twenty-first century.”

Wanting to reform this program and avoid this situation ought to be an imperative for any responsible government, But, to President Biden, it makes you a ‘MAGA Republican’ like those whose “extremism…threatens the very foundations of our republic.” To paraphrase Jeff Foxworthy, if you believe in fiscal responsibility, you might be a MAGA Republican.

When it comes to raising taxes on working families, nobody has any clue what the President is talking about. But, considering that his recent Inflation Reduction Act, which won’t reduce inflation, will increase taxes, according to the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation, for every income bracket, with more than half of the tax increases on people making less than $400,000 annually, the question has to be asked: Why is President Biden pushing a ‘MAGA Republican’ agenda?

The strategy here is obvious. You start by saying that some group or other are beyond the pale. You offer genuine lunatics as examples of this group. Then, you expand that definition to include everybody who disagrees with you. Now, everyone who opposes you is beyond the pale. It didn’t take long for the criteria for being a ‘MAGA Republican’ to expand from “election denialism…outlandish-to-the-point-of-being-embarrassing conspiracy theories… [and] weird weekend MAGA warriors training as if their militia might take on the U.S. military” and include entitlement reform. Just eight days, in fact.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated this strategy explicitly last week:
 "When you are not with what majority of Americans are, then you know, that is extreme. That is an extreme way of thinking."

Such moves — to delegitimize any opposition — are deeply troubling whoever is responsible for them and should concern all Americans.
 
John Phelan is an Economist at the Center of the American Experiment.
Give at: https://center-of-the-american-experiment.revv.co/donate

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 16131
    • View Profile
Political Economics, "Stymie Capitalism"
« Reply #2209 on: September 15, 2022, 04:47:39 AM »
Here it is, posting the Democrat 2022:view of economics in their own wotds.  What's wrong is capitalism (economic freedom) run amok.  The answer is simple.  "Stymie Capitalism".  Shut down what's left of economic freedom and put all the control in the all knowing, all powerful federal government.  Hear Wisconsin Sen Ron Johnson's opponent in his own words explain how Democrat today equals fascist socialist and why I will never be a Democrat (fascist socialist).

https://freebeacon.com/democrats/video-watch-mandela-barnes-say-world-must-stymie-capitalism-to-combat-climate-change/

All I can think of is send money now to Send Ron Johnson.  Name an amount by private message and I will match you.

https://secure.winred.com/ron-johnson/website

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 14799
    • View Profile

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 24013
    • View Profile


G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 24013
    • View Profile
« Last Edit: September 21, 2022, 12:43:06 AM by Crafty_Dog »


DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 16131
    • View Profile
Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2215 on: Today at 07:00:19 AM »
Just copying a headline, not saying click on CNN. 

Even CNN admitting soaring prices hurt ordinary people / everyone.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/26/economy/fixed-income-seniors-budget/index.html

I wonder if they mention, every policy of the last two years falls within the definition of inflation:

more money [chasing] fewer goods and services.
---------------------------------------
Also CNN: 
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/27/economy/economy-inflation-savings/index.html
71% of workers say their pay isn’t keeping up with inflation
[20% more won't yet admit it.]
---------------------------------------
Cost to heat your home is going up double digits from last year's record high cost:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/winter-coming-families-brace-large-heating-bill-again

Heating your home is kind of a big deal here. 
http://news.minnesota.publicradio.org/features/200212/04_robertsont_heating/
« Last Edit: Today at 07:44:57 AM by DougMacG »

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 14799
    • View Profile
Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2216 on: Today at 08:33:20 AM »
CNN

garbage

read CNN post above

ABSOLUTELY NO MENTION IT IS BIDEN'S POLICIES CAUSING THIS

just Trump just corona just ukraine
  it is all due to world wide problem blah blah blah

CNN are lying bastards - they will never really change

and they need to rid us of that beady eyed Vanderbilt guy ..  I am sick of his partisan BS ..

Yes I have hate, but it is due to MSM BS
not because I am "fascist ", "white supremacist", or 'threat to democracy "


DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 16131
    • View Profile
Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2217 on: Today at 08:57:57 AM »
 :|"CNN is garbage".   Right, but ...
they can't hide the fact that this economy is hurting their people, people who voted for this.

And we only need 20%, 10%, 5%, maybe less, of their [former] voters to reconsider the wisdom and efficacy of suicidal economics to swing the balance and save the republic.

As I drive the rich liberal urban, well kept neighborhoods of the Twin Cities, I see no conservative yard signs but perhaps fewer liberal ones than in the past.  Then in the tougher and minority neighborhoods I frequent, I see a few liberal signs, mostly local candidates, but NO real Dem enthusiasm since Obama's first election in 2008.  They know now, these economic policies do NOTHING for them.  Converting them to our side is another matter.
« Last Edit: Today at 11:03:41 AM by DougMacG »

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 24013
    • View Profile
Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2218 on: Today at 11:06:57 AM »
:|"CNN is garbage".   Right, but ...
they can't hide the fact that this economy is hurting their people, people who voted for this.

And we only need 20%, 10%, 5%, maybe less, of their [former] voters to reconsider the wisdom and efficacy of suicidal economics to swing the balance and save the republic.

As I drive the rich liberal urban, well kept neighborhoods of the Twin Cities, I see no conservative yard signs but perhaps fewer liberal ones than in the past.  Then in the tougher and minority neighborhoods I frequent, I see a few liberal signs, mostly local candidates, but NO real Dem enthusiasm since Obama's first election in 2008.  They know now, these economic policies do NOTHING for them.  Converting them to our side is another matter.

You will get this instead:
https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/116/616/434/playable/0f611395286397ee.mp4