Author Topic: India, India-China, India Afpakia, India-Russia  (Read 212698 times)

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #300 on: August 10, 2019, 02:56:36 PM »
The removal of article 370, changes several things for Pak, that they may not yet have given thought to.

1. Previously, Indian Kashmir was considered a disputed territory by Pak and hence the term Line of Control (LOC) was used to talk about borders. The International Border (IB), referred to the border with Pak, outside of Kashmir. Much of the terror attacks and shelling was at the LOC, i.e. at disputed territory. If now Pak, shells Indian Kashmir, it will be at the IB and the consequences will be different.
2. It is almost certain, that the removal of 370, will result in rapid development of Kashmir as hotels, tourism and industry will be set up (since they can now buy property). It is not far fetched to think, that the people in current POK whose present situation is much much worse than that of Indian Kashmir, will want to merge with their brethren in Indian Kashmir and be part of a larger India. The historical term is "Akhand Bharat", which was the India which stretched upto Balochistan and Afghanistan on the west and Bangladesh to the east before the British chopped up India into smaller countries. I am betting that the next election manifesto of the BJP will have a mention of POK...also the coming speech by Modi on India's independence day from the red fort in Delhi.
3. Alternatively, at some point in the future, India may capture POK and make a path available up to Afghanistan. If that is done, the current geopolitical location of Pak becomes irrelevant as Pak is no longer necessary to provide access to Afghanistan.
4. Pakis call Kashmir their jugular vein (they are blood thirsty) and have for decades fought on the idea that Kashmir will become part of Pak...are suddenly left with no options. They cannot commit any serious terrorism (Modi responds forcefully) and cannot win a war (they are broke), world opinion is against them. Their people are asking for blood, the army appears impotent, guess what, Imran Khan might become the sacrificial goat.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2019, 02:58:51 PM by ya »

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #301 on: August 11, 2019, 07:54:53 PM »
Both Pak and India's Independence days are coming soon, Aug 14/15. Imran Khan will have to do something..but what ?


ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #302 on: August 15, 2019, 05:06:42 PM »
Meanwhile in POK, the usual bleating...

Kashmir Explodes Into the Streets: ‘I Am Ready to Die’
“If there's no solution, we're willing to go to war.”

By Hind Hassan, Sean Stephens, and Tim Hume
Aug 15 2019, 12:01pmShareTweet

MUZAFFARABAD, Pakistan-administered Kashmir — India marked its Independence Day Thursday with a chest-thumping celebration of its incendiary move to roll back the political autonomy of its part of the contested region of Kashmir.

But across the border in arch-rival Pakistan, the mood was anything but festive. The country declared India’s big occasion a symbolic “black day” in protest of Delhi’s decision earlier this month to unilaterally revoke its part of the Muslim-majority region’s relative self-rule.

Protests were held across Pakistan in a demonstration of public rage. Many Pakistanis believe India’s actions have reduced the region to an Indian colony.

Prime minister of Pakistan-administered Kashmir Farooq Haider Khan told VICE News that like many Kashmiris, he believed India’s move was motivated to bring about a demographic shift in the Muslim-majority region.

Becoming emotional as he spoke, he said that if the “occupation” in Indian-administered Kashmir continued, he and others on the Pakistan-administered side would be prepared to take action to help their kin on the other side of the border.

“One has to die one day, why not die to help a brother in Kashmir to get freedom from this Indian occupation?” he said, choking up. “I am ready to die.”


Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan warned Thursday of “radicalization and cycles of violence” across the Muslim world if the international community ignored the plight of the Kashmiris.

“Will [the] world silently witness another Srebrenica-type massacre & ethnic cleansing of Muslims?” Khan asked on his Twitter account, his profile picture symbolically blacked out.

In Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, about 2,000 people shouted “Modi is a dog!” and “India get out!” as they marched through the streets.

READ: What’s Article 370, and why could its end bring more violence to Kashmir?

“Where is the international community? Where is the U.N.?” Javeed Ahmed, a 50 year-old resident, said to VICE News. “The U.N.'s always asking for human rights — well, where are the human rights for the Kashmiri people?”

Ahmed said India’s unprecedented security lockdown on its side of the divided region meant those inside were completely cut off from the outside world. “All the internet is jammed there — no telephone calls, no Facebook, no way to contact them. We have no idea what's happening to them,” he said.

“If there's no solution, we're willing to go to war.”

“If there's no solution, we're willing to go to war.”

The threats conveyed the fury raging in Pakistan over India’s Aug. 5 revocation of Article 370, the constitutional provision that has guaranteed Indian-administered Kashmir political autonomy since it became part of India. The move scrapped Kashmir’s constitution and flag, effectively placing it under direct rule from New Delhi, and removed laws preventing non-Kashmiris from buying land in the region.

In a bid to quiet opposition, India’s Hindu nationalist government imposed an unprecedented security lockdown in the state. It sent in tens of thousands of troops, cut off phone and internet networks, placed Kashmiri political leaders under house arrest, and imposed strict curfews on the public.


India has attempted to justify its move in Kashmir by claiming that bringing the state deeper into the national fold will both tackle separatist militancy in the restive region and bring it greater development and prosperity. But it also satisfies a longstanding desire of Hindu nationalists.

Speaking at New Delhi’s historic Red Fort Thursday at celebrations to mark his country’s Independence Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi trumpeted his government’s actions in Kashmir, saying his government had achieved what previous administrations had failed to do for seven decades.

“The old arrangements during the last 70 years encouraged secessionism. They gave birth to terrorism and nurtured nepotism,” said Modi. "They made the foundations of corruption and discrimination stronger.”

The Himalayan region has been a source of conflict between India and Pakistan ever since the two countries became independent in 1947. Both claim the territory in full as their own, and administer their own sections, demarcated by what’s called the Line of Control.

The nuclear-armed archrivals have fought wars over the territory, and came close once again in February after a deadly suicide bomb attack on Indian paramilitary forces by the militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed. India accused Pakistan of having a hand in the attack, but Islamabad denied any involvement.



While that incident saw the two sides trade airstrikes for the first time in decades, they eventually pulled back from the brink after Pakistan returned a captured Indian air force pilot. Now, though, with India’s sudden change to the status quo in the region, war talk has returned. On Thursday, Pakistan said three of its soldiers were killed in skirmishes along the Line of Control, and that five Indian troops were also killed, although India denied this.

Speaking in Muzaffarabad Wednesday, Pakistan’s Independence Day, Khan claimed his country’s armed forces had intelligence that India was preparing an act of aggression on Pakistani soil.

“The Pakistani army has solid information that they [India] are planning to do something in Pakistani Kashmir, and they are ready and will give a solid response,” Khan said. “The time has arrived to teach you a lesson.”

He repeatedly compared the Hindu nationalist ideology of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to that of Nazi Germany, and raised the specter of ethnic cleansing in Kashmir.

“Narendra Modi says in his speech that ‘We'll bring prosperity to this place’,” he said. “This is identical to the time when Hitler was attacking Russia, he told them: ‘I'm coming to liberate you from communism’.”

But despite the rage and bravado, analysts say that a full-scale war remains unlikely, as both nuclear-armed powers ultimately realize it is not in their best interests. Pakistan is also pursuing a diplomatic response to the crisis, having expelled India’s High Commissioner, halted bilateral trade with India and called for an urgent meeting of the U.N. Security Council which will be held behind closed-doors Friday.

Vasuki Shastry, associate fellow at Chatham House’s Asia-Pacific program, told VICE News that Pakistan’s pursuit of a diplomatic approach, coupled with its de-escalatory approach during tensions in February, indicated that the threats were ultimately empty, although an acceleration of the proxy war — waged by Pakistan-based militant groups against Indian forces — was likely.

“None of this points in the direction of full-scale conflict,” he said.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #303 on: August 17, 2019, 05:15:43 PM »
A few important events:
1. Two Indian ministers (Manohar Parrikh, ex defense minister and Rajnath current home minister) have hinted about a change in India's no first use nuclear doctrine. Message to Pak and China.https://www.rediff.com/news/column/rajnath-on-no-first-strike-hiss-of-the-cobra/20190817.htm
2. The end game for pak, from above link "In my opinion, there is only one possible end game: the unwinding of Pakistan into several pieces: Balochistan, Sind, Balawaristan (Gilgit, Baltistan, the rest of PoK), the Pashtun area Khyber Pakhtunwa which will merge with Afghanistan, and the rump Punjab."
3. The LOC is hot, pakis are hyperventilating in their talk shows. Some who are honest are depressed (also the defeat of their case at the UN), others are pulling their hair out in frustration. Have to see what they can do once the curfews are lifted in Kashmir. Incidentally, pakis just put Waziristan under section 144, which is what we have in Kashmir right now!. Apparently, the pashtun are not happy with pak!
4. Comparisons been made between imran khans independence day speech and Modi's. Imrans speech was all hate about jihad, Kashmir and islamism going back to the stone age. Modi's did not even mention pak, but focussed on development towards a 5 Trillion economy in 5 years.
5. India will appoint a Chief of Defense Staff, over the army, navy and airforce.

Taken together, India seems to be preparing for war in the next few years.




G M

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #304 on: August 17, 2019, 05:41:35 PM »
I think a lot of countries involved in the region are. I note the US military seems to be all about equipping and training for a big fight with a "near peer" at this time.


A few important events:
1. Two Indian ministers (Manohar Parrikh, ex defense minister and Rajnath current home minister) have hinted about a change in India's no first use nuclear doctrine. Message to Pak and China.https://www.rediff.com/news/column/rajnath-on-no-first-strike-hiss-of-the-cobra/20190817.htm
2. The end game for pak, from above link "In my opinion, there is only one possible end game: the unwinding of Pakistan into several pieces: Balochistan, Sind, Balawaristan (Gilgit, Baltistan, the rest of PoK), the Pashtun area Khyber Pakhtunwa which will merge with Afghanistan, and the rump Punjab."
3. The LOC is hot, pakis are hyperventilating in their talk shows. Some who are honest are depressed (also the defeat of their case at the UN), others are pulling their hair out in frustration. Have to see what they can do once the curfews are lifted in Kashmir. Incidentally, pakis just put Waziristan under section 144, which is what we have in Kashmir right now!. Apparently, the pashtun are not happy with pak!
4. Comparisons been made between imran khans independence day speech and Modi's. Imrans speech was all hate about jihad, Kashmir and islamism going back to the stone age. Modi's did not even mention pak, but focussed on development towards a 5 Trillion economy in 5 years.
5. India will appoint a Chief of Defense Staff, over the army, navy and airforce.

Taken together, India seems to be preparing for war in the next few years.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #305 on: August 17, 2019, 09:30:58 PM »
Looks like a deal is coming soon. Some paki sources reporting that too.

Trump Reviews Controversial US-Taliban Peace Deal Which Critics Call A "Betrayal"
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/17/2019 - 22:15

Critics are calling a Trump administration plan for a rapid US force draw down in Afghanistan which involves striking a peace deal with the Taliban a "betrayal".

But administration officials have countered that this is the cost of bringing the some 14,000 US troops in Afghanistan home. Trump "has been pretty clear that he wants to bring the troops home" according to senior officials privy to ongoing negotiations.

The chief controversy behind the US-Taliban peace talks is that any deal will likely rely on the Taliban holding to counterterrorism guarantees, or that it won't attack US coalition forces; however, there's reportedly little in the impending deal which holds the Taliban to guarantees it won't attack Afghan civilians or the national army.


Via Reuters
According to CNN:

One source explained that the agreement is seen as paving the way for the US to leave the country without a high number of US casualties in the coming months.

President Trump said he had a "very good meeting in Afghanistan" in a tweet Friday, just after meeting with top national security advisers over the impending peace plan which seeks to end America's longest running war, now approaching two decades.

"Discussions centered around our ongoing negotiations and eventual peace and reconciliation agreement with the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan," a White House press spokesman said of the meeting. "The meeting went very well, and negotiations are proceeding."

“In continued close cooperation with the government of Afghanistan, we remain committed to achieving a comprehensive peace agreement, including a reduction in violence and a cease-fire, ensuring that Afghan soil is never again used to threaten the United States or her allies, and bringing Afghans together to work towards peace,” the statement said.

CNN summarizes of the deal that it's "expected to formalize a significant withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan -- from about 15,000 troops to 8,000 or 9,000 troops -- and enshrine official commitments by the Taliban to counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan, according to the multiple sources familiar with the plan."

But there's fear that the Taliban is simply looking to remove the US military from the equation, and that once the US departs, the Taliban will have free reign to attack a greatly weakened Afghan national army.

Spearheading the dialogue has been White House special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, who has been meeting with Taliban negotiators in Qatar for months, with a desire to strike a final deal by September 1.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #306 on: August 18, 2019, 06:51:17 AM »
India's defense minister says talks with Pak, only on POK. For 70 years, talks were on Indian Kashmir, suddenly that topic is closed.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/if-talks-are-held-with-pakistan-it-will-now-be-on-pok-rajnath-singh/articleshow/70722672.cms

Imran Khan  is losing it.
The World must also seriously consider the safety & security of India's nuclear arsenal in the control of the fascist, racist Hindu Supremacist Modi Govt. This is an issue that impacts not just the region but the world.

— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) August 18, 2019
« Last Edit: August 18, 2019, 09:43:05 AM by ya »

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #307 on: August 25, 2019, 05:13:05 AM »
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2019/08/that-fascist-racist-hindu-supremacist-and-nazi-narendra-modi

That “Fascist, Racist, Hindu Supremacist and Nazi” Narendra Modi
AUG 24, 2019 10:00 AM BY HUGH FITZGERALD 47 COMMENTS



What was it that Prime Minister Modi of India did in early August that was so terrible?  His government announced that it had decided to  scrap Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which since 1949 had conferred a special status on the state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) – the only Muslim-majority state in India — allowing it to be nearly autonomous, except in areas like foreign policy and defense. Until now J&K has been able to mostly govern itself, even having its own constitution and flag. Now its status will be that of a “union territory,” meaning that India’s central government in New Delhi will gain much more control over the area’s affairs.

This change has Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Imran Khan, foaming at the mouth. In a series of tweets on August 18, he alleged that Muslims in India were being “disenfranchised” and “RSS goons were on the rampage.” But no Muslim citizens have been “disenfranchised.” He compared the Indian government to those who ruled Nazi Germany. Khan posted: “India has been captured, as Germany had been captured by Nazis, by a fascist, racist Hindu supremacist ideology and leadership. This threatens 9 million Kashmiris under siege in IOK [Indian occupied Kashmir] for over two weeks which should have sent alarm bells ringing across the world with UN observers being sent there.”

Now let’s see. Which Muslims have been “disenfranchised” — that is, citizens deprived of the legitimate right to vote? So far, none. Are RSS (a Hindu nationalist group, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) “goons..on the rampage”? Are Muslims being attacked all over India? Between May 2015 and December 2018, a total of 36 Muslims were killed in 12 Indian states, according to Human Rights Watch. Compare that to the 166 Hindus (and Jews) killed in the single attack by Muslim terrorists in Mumbai in 2008. Or consider that in the same period, May 2015 to December 2018, hundreds of Hindus, Sikhs, and other non-Muslims, including Indian army personnel, were killed by Muslim terrorists, some of them trained in Pakistan. Who is on the rampage? Who are the goons?

Below are eye-opening 2015-2017 statistics for terrorist incidents (those for 2018 were unavailable) in India. Most, though not all, of these incidents of terrorism, were carried out by Muslims.

Terrorist incidents in India

Year   Number of incidents   Deaths   Injuries

2017        1000                         470       702

2016        1,025                        467       788

2015           884                        387       649

Imran Khan claims hysterically that “the threat also extends to Pakistan, the minorities in India and in fact the very fabric of Nehru and Gandhi’s India. One can simply Google to understand the link between the Nazi ideology and ethnic cleansing and genocide ideology of the RSS-BJP [Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh-Bharatiya Janata Party] founding fathers.”

He went on to claim that Indian Muslims in India face oppression and discrimination: “Already four million Indian Muslims face detention camps and cancellation of citizenship. [The] world must take note as this genie is out of the bottle and the doctrine of hate and genocide, with RSS goons on the rampage, will spread unless the international community acts now to stop it.”

What “detention camps” for Muslims does Imran Khan have in mind? The Indian government has made plans, in the single State of Assam, to detain those migrants, many but not all of whom are Muslim, who cannot prove that they or their families were citizens before 1971. Why 1971? That was the year when war broke out in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) and many Muslims fled into the Indian state of West Bengal to avoid the fighting, but never returned to Bangladesh. These are the “four million Indian Muslims” whom he claims face “cancellation of citizenship,” but who never obtained legal citizenship in the first place; they were refugees from Bangladesh who simply remained.

A comparison of how Muslims have fared in India with how Hindus have done in Pakistan and Bangladesh is revealing. Muslims constituted 9.8% of the Indian population in the 1951 census. Now the Muslim percentage of the Indian population has gone up by 50%, to 14.5%. Meanwhile, since Partition in 1949, in Pakistan (formerly West Pakistan), the Hindu population has shrunk from 15% to 1.6%. In Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan), the Hindu population has gone from 35% to 10.5%. Clearly it is Hindus, not Muslims, who are suffering.

Not content with labeling Narendra Modi a “fascist,” “racist,” and “Hindu supremacist,” Imran Khan claims that his regime is a worldwide threat: “The world must also seriously consider the safety and security of India’s nuclear arsenal in the control of the fascist, racist Hindu supremacist Modi government. This is an issue that impacts not just the region but the world.”

Prime Minister Khan shows no signs of tamping down his hysterical invective. The “fascist, racist Hindu supremacist Modi government” has done nothing more terrible than cease to allow Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir to exist as an autonomous state. It will now come under greater control of the national government. Modi’s move did not occur in a vacuum. It was a response to three decades of attacks on the Hindu Pandits of Kashmir by local Muslims.

Horrible things have happened in Kashmir. But the scrapping of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution is not among them. Imran Khan would have you believe that  atrocities have been, and are being, committed against the Muslims, in Jammu and Kashmir. But the most telling statistic about J&K is this: in 1990, there were between 300,000 and 600,000 Kashmiri Pandits (Brahmins) in Kashmir; now there are fewer than 3,000. That is a reduction in the Hindu Pandit population of between 99 and 99.5%. What could be more damning to the Muslim case?

The killings of the helpless Pandits led those who survived to flee their ancestral homeland in Kashmir for places further south in India where, having abandoned their homes and lands, they arrived impoverished.. The story of what happened to the Kashmiri Pandits has seldom been told in the Western media. (In this respect, it is like the failure of the Western media to discuss the 900,000 Jews who from 1948 to 1951 fled pogroms in Arab lands). No one in the Western media has mentioned it even now, when Kashmir is so much in the news, with the Pakistanis and Indian Muslims raging about Prime Minister Modi’s “facist, racist, supremacist” change in the status of J&K. Perhaps now that there will be less autonomy in J&K, and likely a more robust Indian army presence, some of those Pandits will be brave enough to return.

The Indian government would do well, right now, to go firmly on the offensive. Modi himself should remind Imran Khan what happened to the Pandits of Kashmir when the Muslims exercised their autonomy in the state. The “fascist, racist, Nazi” Prime Minister Modi should also let Prime Minister Khan know how many terrorist attacks by Muslims on Hindus in India have taken place in the last few decades, and how many victims there have been. He might even remind Khan – whose  howls of rage can well be imagined – and the world about the centuries of Mughal rule, during which there were 70-80 million Hindu victims of Muslim massacres. And then he might, in a final fillip to Imran Khan, he might end with this: “Prime Minister Khan, you describe me as adhering to a ‘fascist, racist, supremacist  ideology.’ Given that in the Qur’an Muslims are described as ‘the best of peoples’ (3:110) and non-Muslims described as ‘the most vile of created beings,’ can you see why some might be forgiven for thinking that Islam itself is a ‘supremacist ideology’? Billions of non-Muslims would welcome your answer.”

« Last Edit: August 25, 2019, 05:36:58 AM by ya »

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #308 on: August 26, 2019, 07:22:17 PM »
Modi at 13:15 shows good chemistry with Trump. Body language is certainly positive. Not sure I have seen this kind of chemistry between Trump and another  head of state.

https://youtu.be/7TZV_YQFeo8

DougMacG

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #309 on: August 27, 2019, 06:03:34 AM »
Modi at 13:15 shows good chemistry with Trump. Body language is certainly positive. Not sure I have seen this kind of chemistry between Trump and another  head of state.

https://youtu.be/7TZV_YQFeo8

Yes!  Trump is a big picture, future oriented guy who is always asking, what is in America's best interest.  In the big picture going forward, US-India is the future alliance that matters. 

Trump was asked if he had second thoughts on opening the trade war with China and he replied that he has second thoughts on everything.  The mediation offer for Kashmir was a well intended, almost good idea.  Modi helped him with his second thoughts and Trump reversed course with no damage done.

In the case of both of these leaders, the facts are on their side and that makes persuasion and negotiations so much easier.  The US can be a much better partner for India than the other big players, China and Russia.  And vice versa!  That we have stumbled to avoid this win-win relationship for so long is just lost time.
---------------------
My daughter returned recently from business in India.  Interesting place with a private sector very closely connected to the US.  We've come along way since my business communications to India via telex.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2019, 06:45:57 AM by DougMacG »

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #310 on: August 28, 2019, 07:35:12 PM »


The next pak PM will lose POK :-D
What a worthless army

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GPF: India-Russia
« Reply #311 on: September 05, 2019, 09:12:05 AM »
India gets cozy with Russia. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi introduced a Russia dimension to bring together his Act East and Indo-Pacific strategies. Speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russia, Modi promised closer ties with Moscow. He announced a $1 billion line of credit to help Russia develop its Far East region, and the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding for the establishment of maritime communications between the ports of Chennai and Vladivostok. Modi said these moves complement his Act East policy, which aims to bolster relations between India and Southeast Asia. India has been gradually increasing cooperation with Japan, the U.S. and Australia. On Wednesday, for example, Modi met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on the sidelines of the forum, while India’s defense minister and his Japanese counterpart earlier this week announced progress in talks on a military logistics agreement and plans for expanded joint naval exercises, potentially in the South China Sea. New Delhi on Wednesday also announced plans to acquire 10 additional maritime surveillance aircraft from the U.S. Nonetheless, India has been reluctant to abandon its cherished long-time strategy of nonalignment, and Russia, moreover, remains India’s most important source of arms and military technology. This latest reaffirmation of its partnership with Russia as an Indo-Pacific partner is intended to sustain this balance

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #312 on: September 08, 2019, 07:23:59 AM »
Looks like Trump cancelled talks with the Taliban at Camp David. This was after the Talibs were reported to be involved in a bombing that killed American servicemen. I think this shows that peace with the taliban will be tenuous at best and will breakdown within weeks of signing any agreement. The reason that the US and also Russia were not able to defeat the Taliban was their sanctuaries in Pak. They can attack US forces and run back to safety in Pak forward areas. Conversely, Pak is fixated about influence in Afghanistan as it provides them strategic depth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_depth against India, the logic being that Pak is not a very broad territory (nation) and can be easily overcome (split into two) in an Indian assault of even a few hundred miles, whereas access and friends in Afghanistan gives them territory to back into (ie Afghanistan becomes a sanctuary state for Pak army to rally from). This concept is most important to understand Pak army thinking and their insecurities, because once this is understood, eliminate the possibility of Pak gaining strategic depth, and one eliminates paki interference and interest  in Afghanistan.

With India abrogating article 370, Indian kashmir is off the table in discussions with Kashmir. There are several reports that POK Kashmiris want to join with India. Pak has been settling punjabis in POKashmir to change demographics, that has not gone down well with the locals. There is also the destruction of Kashmiri culture and general mistreatment of kashmiris (same as what happened in erstwhile Bangladesh).

One view gaining ground in India is that India must take back POK (a difficult but not impossible task), such that it has a direct border with Afghanistan. The Govt of India to this day has 24 empty seats for senators from POK as per the Indian Constitution from 1947. I believe this will happen sometime in the next few years, once India has done the necessary groundwork of stabilizing Indian Kashmir and creating public awareness for reunification of Kashmir.

The point I am driving at is if Trump were to support this endeavour now (diplomatically + with some weapons support + veto support in UN against China), the afghan situation can be controlled today in a manner suitable to US interests. Trump wants Indian forces in Afghanistan to stabilize it, but that is not possible without direct supply lines through Indian territory. If India takes back POK, the geographic importance of Pak diminishes. The simple shock of losing POK will force Pak to stop providing sanctuary to taliban (as of now the pakis are raving and ranting, but can do nothing about loss of indian Kashmir). Infact, Pak will lose the durrand area to afghanistan as the next logical step, with subsequent break up of Pak (Balochistan will go first).

The taliban want power and ability to rule Afghanistan. They are not interested in terrorism against the US mainland, neither are they interested in serving as strategic depth for Pak's paranoia against India. Understanding pak fixation with strategic depth and eliminating it, is the solution to the Pak problem.

Note added: This would also disrupt China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
« Last Edit: September 08, 2019, 08:39:44 AM by ya »

DougMacG

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #313 on: September 08, 2019, 08:13:05 AM »
VERY interesting idea YA.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #314 on: September 14, 2019, 07:18:48 AM »


ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #315 on: September 15, 2019, 08:45:24 AM »
Seems strange that the US govt does not say where Hamza was killed. Translation of "Killed in Af-Pak region"=Pak


Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/71129369.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

"While the White House statement did not go into precise details of how he was eliminated, accounts that first surfaced on social media claimed Hamza was being escorted in a Pakistan Army Aviation flight from Islamabad Airport when the plane nosedived in a residential area near the Pakistani Army Headquarters in Rawalpindi. Reports at that time said US personnel collaborated with Afghans and brought down the plan knowing it carried Hamza bin Laden."

See this previous news report: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2024227/1-17-martyr-army-aviation-aircraft-crashes-rawalpindi/ This crash was followed by immediate cordoning off, of the area and news blackout.

Hamza probably died a while ago, for some reason the US releases the news now.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2019, 09:11:57 AM by ya »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #316 on: September 15, 2019, 10:44:55 AM »
Perhaps to divert attention from the unfavorable reaction in many serious quarters to the negotiations with the Taliban and the Camp David invite?

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #317 on: September 15, 2019, 11:22:25 AM »
And the govt is protecting Pak reputation, by claiming that Hamza was killed in Af-Pak. Far too many terrorists make pak their home. Trump hopes that Pak will help get a deal with the Taliban...in this case, past is prologue.


ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #318 on: September 22, 2019, 12:05:57 PM »
Just finished watching the #HowdyModi rally in Houston, estimated 50 K attendees, Trump and several members of the US govt were present. Nice chemistry between Modi and Trump. Expect a trade deal soon. Trump will pick up some voters too...he was welcomed enthusiastically. Modi said India has the cheapest data rates in the world, 0.25$/GB...perhaps a hint to the US govt about the 5G battle brewing in India with Huawei. Indian govt is unlikely to give Huawei any contracts...I am sure thats a topic of negotiation with the US.

Imran Khan is not going to like this...the beggar had to borrow a plane from Saudi Mr Bone Saw to attend the coming UNGA meeting.




ya

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Trump and Modi in Texas
« Reply #319 on: September 22, 2019, 04:53:29 PM »


Full house
« Last Edit: September 22, 2019, 11:40:19 PM by Crafty_Dog »



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India-Pak, Pakistan military stands by govt amid protests
« Reply #322 on: November 03, 2019, 05:47:26 AM »
Pakistan’s powerful military said it supported the country’s elected government and the constitution, as tens of thousands of opposition protesters gathered in the capital demanding that Prime Minister Imran Khan’s year-old government quits by Sunday. “We believe in the law and the constitution and our support is with the democratically elected government, not with any party,” military spokesman Major General Asif Ghafoor said in comments to a television news channel late on Friday. Earlier on Friday, the opposition had demanded that cricket star-turned-politician Khan and his administration resign within two days, raising the stakes in a protest campaign that the government has denounced as a threat to democracy.​
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-politics-protests/pakistan-army-says-supports-elected-government-amid-major-protest-idUSKBN1XC064?il=0

[Maybe ya knows what is going on.]

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #323 on: November 17, 2019, 06:06:01 AM »
This might help...its complicated. In the article below, "establishment" is code for military...YA

Maulana Fazal ur Rahman’s long march/dharna promised a big bang in D Chowk in Islamabad but has seemingly retreated with a whimper. His obedient supporters will now partially block some roads and arteries until his demand for the prime minister’s ouster followed by fresh elections are met or, failing that, he is obliged to shift gears into Plan C, whatever that might be. This tactic will certainly keep him on the front page – albeit reduced from four columns to two and even one in due course – even if it doesn’t succeed in outing Imran Khan. But, surely, the Maulana has known this truth all along.

This brings us full circle to a set of questions we have asked from the outset: What are the real motives behind Maulana’s dharna? Why was the Maulana adamant on launching it in November? Why didn’t the PPP and PMLN join forces with him, especially since they have the most to gain from ousting Imran Khan?

A second initiative seems to have got unstuck too. That is Shahbaz Sharif’s efforts to put ailing Nawaz Sharif on a plane to London for medical treatment. But it suddenly transpires that the PTI government won’t let Nawaz Sharif out of sight without compelling him to cough up Rs 7 billion – the amount of corruption attributed to his account by two judges – that would, in effect, amount to a confession of guilt on his part. Wags say that Imran Khan has put a spoke in the “understanding” reached between Shahbaz Sharif and the “Establishment”, which would lead to the more ominous conclusion that the government is no longer on the same page with the partner who “selected” it and put it there in the first instance.

Is there a common factor that might explain these two new developments?

The Maulana has been hard on the Establishment, constantly accusing it of disrepute for aligning itself so closely with a “failed” prime minister and incompetent government. He has gone so far as to publicly accuse it of “disappearing” persons, rigging elections, selecting Imran Khan and abandoning the cause of Kashmir. In contrast, Shahbaz Sharif purrs like a kitten whenever the “Establishment” finds mention and Asif Zardari is conspicuous by his studied silence on the same subject. What is it about November and the Establishment that puts Maulana Fazal, Shahbaz Sharif and Imran Khan on high alert and compels them to tug in so many different directions and ways?

Let’s stop pussyfooting about the subject. Everyone and his aunt has been speculating for months about one issue that is dead-lined for resolution end-November when the term of the current army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, ends. Government ministers have proclaimed that this is a non-issue since an extension in tenure for three years has already been granted to Gen Bajwa and President Arif Alvi has confirmed signing the relevant notification. Yet, for some inexplicable reason, this notification remains in the pocket of Gen Bajwa and has not been officially notified in the public domain even though a couple of journalists have been “shown” it unofficially.

Is it conceivable that Maulana Fazal ur Rahman’s behavior, no less than that of Shahbaz Sharif and Imran Khan, remains contingent on whether or not General Bajwa agrees to serve as army chief for three more years? One might imagine that the Maulana’s backers would like the business of extensions to be done away with in the larger institutional interest of the army and are hoping General Bajwa declines to accept the extension. Equally, Shahbaz Sharif and Asif Zardari are taking no chances siding with the Maulana, just in case Gen Bajwa decides to stay on as the most powerful player in the arena. But it is Imran Khan’s behavior that is both intriguing and revealing. On the one hand, he has signed away the extension; on the other, he hasn’t put it in the public domain; on the one hand, he is constantly at pains to insist that the government and Establishment are on the same page; on the other, he is clearly not on the same page as the Establishment in so far as dealing with the political opposition is concerned.

The Establishment is concerned that another Martyr – and a popular Punjabi one to boot – would severely undermine its institutional interests. It may also be concerned about the disunity in the country provoked by Imran Khan’s obsession to wipe out the leadership of the PPP and PMLN at a time when Pakistanis are heaving under the yoke of severe economic pressures and hostile regional powers may be conspiring against the country.

Has the Maulana been conveyed some assurances? Certainly, Imran Khan’s latest spanner in the works would suggest a degree of boldness that can only result from the knowledge or perception that General Bajwa has decided to go home. He would be a very foolish man to take this stance if he knew that Gen Bajwa aims to wield the stick for another three years.



Najam Sethi

« Last Edit: November 17, 2019, 06:09:53 AM by ya »

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #324 on: November 17, 2019, 06:22:07 AM »
So Modi has delivered on article 370, i.e. Kashmir now has the same laws as the rest of India and no more special status and pandering. The unfinished business is getting back POK (pak Occupied Kashmir). I expect him to act on it, in this term or the next at the latest.  With that in mind, India needs to get their weapons and military readiness up to speed. The previous congress governments did not allow India to modernize its military. India needs to get some key systems in place, S-400 from Russia, Rafale aircraft from France, more subs as well as acquisitions from the US. The below, should be seen with the above objective in mind.

India, US $7.5 billion defence deals for armed drones, spy planes in pipeline
2 min read . Updated: 17 Nov 2019, 06:17 PM IST
ANI
The Trump administration had approved the sale of armed drones to India in June this year
The other major deal in the pipeline is the project for the acquisition of the 10 P-8I anti-submarine warfare and long-range surveillance aircraft
Topics
Indian NavyIndian Army
NEW DELHI : Amid growing military ties between India and the United States, the Indian armed forces are moving closer towards deals for procuring American defence equipment worth over $7 billion from America, including Sea Guardian armed drones and naval spy planes.

The two projects are moving ahead separately as one of them is a tri-services project while the other is being steered by the Indian Navy.

"All the three services are collating their requirement for the Sea Guardian armed drones which will give us a strong capability in terms of high altitude long endurance unmanned aerial vehicles and also enhance our capabilities to carry out surveillance," government sources told ANI.

They said since some of the capability requirements of the three services would be different from each other, their collation would take a few months and a Letter of Request is expected to be issued to the American government for the government-to-government deal by the February-March time frame.

The Trump administration had approved the sale of armed drones to India in June this year and offered it to be equipped with required missiles and other systems.

Earlier, among the three services, only the Navy seemed to be interested in the procurement but now all the three services are showing interest in the project, the sources said.

The project is expected to cost over $4.5 billion to the defence services.

Once the Letter of Request (similar to a Request for Proposal) is issued to the American government for the deal under its Foreign Military Sales route, the American side would send the Letter of Acceptance in which it will specify the terms and conditions for the project.

The other major deal in the pipeline is the project for the acquisition of the 10 P-8I anti-submarine warfare and long-range surveillance aircraft which would be adding to the existing fleet of 12 such planes in the Indian Navy.

The sources said the project was supposed to be fielded before the Defence Acquisition Council in its last meeting but was withheld due to some reasons. "Now the proposal is expected to be put up before the DAC again in the next meeting," the sources said.

The P-8I planes are expected to cost around $3 billion. These planes would also be acquired under the FMS route once it gets final approval from the Cabinet Committee on Security headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In the last over one decade, India has inducted a large number of American defence hardware including Apache attack choppers, Chinook heavy-lift Helicopters, C-17 Globemaster and C-130J Super Hercules Transport aircraft, M-777 ultra-light howitzers and AN-TPQ weapon locating radars.

The two sides are also in discussions for the NASAMS air defence system for providing protection to the national capital region.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #325 on: November 26, 2019, 05:38:44 AM »
https://www.dawn.com/news/1518960/gen-bajwas-extension-hangs-in-balance-as-cjp-suspends-govts-notification-until-tomorrow

As discussed above, it was all about whether Bajwa gets an extension.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1518960/gen-bajwas-extension-hangs-in-balance-as-cjp-suspends-govts-notification-until-tomorrow

Usually the courts are deferential to the military...looks like Bajwa will retire on Nov29.

The military commanders are upset with Bajwa for usurping a promotion, on top of that he is a ahmedi according to some.

G M

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ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #327 on: November 28, 2019, 06:09:05 AM »
Looks like Bajwa has a 6 month extension..until they get legislation passed for his extension. Push and pull between supreme court and military.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1519326/gen-bajwa-to-stay-on-as-coas-for-6-more-months-sc

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: India's new citizenship law excludes Muslim applicants
« Reply #328 on: December 20, 2019, 09:19:13 PM »
With Protests, India’s Muslims Push Back Against Modi Government
Citizenship law is viewed as having far more impact than ruling party’s other policies affecting Muslim community

Demonstrators holding the national flag of India as they protest a new citizenship law at New Delhi's famous Jama Masjid mosque on Friday. PHOTO: DANISH SIDDIQUI/REUTERS
By Vibhuti Agarwal and Krishna Pokharel
Dec. 20, 2019 1:21 pm ET

NEW DELHI—Indian Muslims are stepping off the sidelines to join the political fray, driven by fears their status as citizens has never been more threatened and encouraged by the numbers of non-Muslims joining them in opposing a new citizenship law.

The law, which creates a simplified path to citizenship for immigrants from surrounding countries of every major South Asian faith, except Islam, has proved the last straw for some Muslims. Many had watched with concern as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, ascendant after a sweeping election win in May, pushed through Hindu nationalist policies long advocated by his Bharatiya Janata Party.

The citizenship law is viewed by Muslims as having far more impact on them and their families than the government’s other moves, propelling many onto the streets across the country.

The BJP’s senior leadership have indicated they want to roll out a citizen registry nationally that would require all residents to produce documents. Anyone who can’t—the status for millions of poor people in India—would be at risk of being treated as an immigrant, and all those except Muslims will be able under the new law to try to naturalize.

“The constitution promises equality to everyone. Why are we being treated as second-class citizens?” said Azad Ali, a 26-year-old Muslim who sells rice dishes from a small storefront in the Sarai Jullena district in India’s capital.

Protests began last weekend shortly after India’s parliament passed the citizenship act, with students at some predominantly Muslim universities, including in the capital of New Delhi, staging protests that garnered nationwide attention. The Delhi one ended with violent images of buses being torched and demonstrators being beaten by police who chased them into libraries and bathrooms.

Protests have since spread across the country, increasingly in Muslim neighborhoods or featuring Muslims prominently amid demonstrations that were attended by many, sometimes even more, non-Muslim protesters.


Indian Muslims offer prayers during a protest against the citizenship law in New Delhi on Friday. PHOTO: RAJAT GUPTA/SHUTTERSTOCK
Two protesters were killed by police in Mangalore in southern India on Thursday and one protester died in protests in Lucknow, police in those cities said. Police in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, said late Friday night they were still investigating news reports of the death of six people in protests across the state. More than 1,000 protesters have been detained this week in New Delhi, according to police, though most were released the same day.

In New Delhi on Friday, police dispersed a demonstration of thousands trying to march from the city’s most famous mosque to the center of the capital to denounce the new law, a police spokesman said.

One of the organizers was an organization of young people claiming to champion the rights of India’s Dalit community, once known as untouchables in the Hindu caste hierarchy.

The group calls the citizenship law and the national register of citizens a “conspiracy” by the upper-caste Hindus to rob Muslims, Dalits, tribal people, economically backward castes and the religious minorities of their right to their “citizenship, jobs, education and property.”

A prominent biographer of Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi, an icon of modern India’s tradition of religious tolerance, was detained in protests on Thursday, while more than 1,000 scientists signed a letter in opposition to the law. Leaders of the opposition Congress party, which has historically been the political home for Muslims, have also joined in the protests.


Critics of India's new citizenship legislation, which puts some Muslim immigrants at a disadvantage, say Prime Minister Narendra Modi is undermining the country’s secular foundation. Here’s why Muslims aren’t the only Indians taking to the streets. Photo: Sajjad Hussain/AFP via Getty Images (Originally published Dec. 17, 2019)
Mr. Modi has said the new law isn’t intended to discriminate against Muslims or any other religious group and should be lauded as a humanitarian gesture toward others who are persecuted and have no where to turn. Yet he has also made pointed public comments critics believe are intended to play up the prominence of Muslims in the protests as a way to rally the BJP’s base.

India’s Muslims, which number about 200 million and make up about 14% of India’s population, have generally sought to keep a low profile as India’s largest minority group. That has been especially true over the course of this year as the BJP, which rose to power with a stridently pro-Hindu agenda, trounced Congress.

In recent months, the government banned a special form of divorce previously allowed under Islamic law and a symbol of the community’s autonomy in Hindu-majority India. In August, the BJP moved to strip India’s only Muslim-majority state, Jammu and Kashmir, of its partially autonomous status.

The passing of the new citizenship law, while it affects immigrants, is viewed by Muslims as having a broad reach within their community. India’s home minister, Amit Shah, the BJP’s head political tactician and a close Modi ally, has mentioned the law in conjunction with the BJP’s citizen registry initiative that would require every Indian to prove longstanding residency in the country.

Proving residency could be difficult for poor Indians, a category many Muslims fall within. Most poor people in India don’t record births with the government, possess clear title records for property, receive utility bills, have passports, drivers’ licenses or other identification records. Those that have gone through the bureaucracy often find the records are faulty or improperly executed.

The implementation of a citizen registry in the state of Assam, which may leave almost two million residents stateless, has caused concerns that the new citizenship law would leave Muslims who are unable to prove residency with ambiguous claims to citizenship in the only country they and generations of their families have ever lived in.

The government repeatedly issued statements this week that neither the citizenship act or any future citizen registry are intended to single out Muslims. But given the BJP’s grounding in the Hindu nationalist cause, concerns remain among Muslims.

Indeed, more Muslims say they need to speak out publicly alongside non-Muslims who share their worries that Mr. Modi’s policies are undermining constitutional protections for all religious groups.

“We never thought that we would feel so helpless and worry about our future in India,” said Naeem Khan, who moved to New Delhi from the northern state of Uttar Pradesh in 1992 and runs a travel agency to support his wife and four children. “If we don’t raise our voices now, we will be suppressed forever.”

Congress party leaders have spoken out against the new law, as well as the government’s move to forcibly strip Kashmir of its autonomy. But the party’s electoral drubbing earlier this year has eroded its clout, leaving Muslims casting about for other allies.

“The Congress party lost its say long ago. No party is a voice for us now,” said Rizwaan Ali, a 32-year-old salesman at a mobile-accessories store in New Delhi.

At the same time, the citizenship bill has upset many other Indians—students in left-wing activist organizations, academics, liberal-minded professionals, poor Hindus at the bottom of the caste hierarchy and indigenous groups—who are fearful of the erosion of India’s traditional protections for minority religious groups.

“There is a national solidarity against Citizenship Amendment Act and National Register of Citizens because together they hurt not only Muslims but also other poor sections of the society where many lack the documents to prove their Indian citizenship,” said Mohammad Razi, a 25-year-old recent law graduate who attended a protest in New Delhi on Thursday.

Write to Vibhuti Agarwal at vibhuti.agarwal@wsj.com and Krishna Pokharel at krishna.pokharel@wsj.com

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #329 on: December 24, 2019, 08:21:57 AM »
These are Congress party machinations. At Independence (partition) both Nehru and gandhi declared that hindus in muslim countries would be given citizenship if they wanted it. Muslims got their own country based on religion. Over the next 70 years the % of hindus in Pak declined from 23 % to 3 %, similar trends in Bangladesh. The CAA grants these hindu refugees citizenship. Does not affect Indian citizens (hindus or muslims). Muslims from Afghanistan, Pak, Bangladesh can apply for citizenship, but it is restricted to genuine cases of oppression, after scrutiny.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #330 on: December 24, 2019, 08:29:31 AM »
In the meantime India will soon appoint Chief of Defense Staff
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/chief-of-defence-staff-all-you-need-to-know/articleshow/72954113.cms

Things are moving towards taking back POK. In a few years, India will have new rafale fighter jets, S-400 missile defense. Lots of progress being made. With some luck, 2023 will be the year or latest in the third term for BJP. Pak will probably be at its weakest about then. Watch the frequent testing of new and old missile systems, launch of new submarines, new US heavy lift planes, attack helicopters, anti-tank guided missiles, new surveillance satellites, new border roads and tunnels. The Modi govt has implemented a whole lot of promises within the first 6 months.

Watch also the hysterical complaints from Pak to the UN!...

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #331 on: December 27, 2019, 07:41:11 AM »
Indian Twitter handles dealing with defense are abuzz since months as to the firing on the LOC and the beating that Pak is getting. Some days the entire LOC (Line of control) sees heavy shelling. Wonder how long this can go on...or when Pak breaks.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #332 on: December 27, 2019, 12:49:34 PM »
Love having you post here YA!

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #333 on: January 01, 2020, 04:58:25 PM »
In the past, Indian thinking was to not develop border region roads, the rationale being that the outer Himalayas would provide protection from a Chinese attack. However, the Chinese started to salami slice away Indian territory and it would take weeks for the Indian army to reach the border, if they detected the Chinese salami slicing. Now, the govt has decided to improve border roads so that an effective response can be mounted against the Chinese. Such capability would be important, if India makes a bid for POK.

https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/roads-totalling-60000-km-developed-by-bro-in-2019/73010150

Roads totalling 60,000 km developed by BRO in 2019
The Border Roads Organisation (BRO) has carried out formation work on 1,123.46 km of roads, surfacing work of 2,099.58 km of roads and resurfacing work on 2,339.38 km of roads this year so far.
IANS  |  December 28, 2019, 22:30 IST
 NewsletterA A
 
The organisation has also developed road infrastructure in some friendly neighbourhood countries.
The organisation has also developed road infrastructure in some friendly neighbourhood countries.
New Delhi: The Border Roads Organisation (BRO) which maintains and develops road networks across India's borders has, in 2019, constructed and developed approximately 60,000 km of roads, including a crucial 19.72 km road near Doklam, the site of the 73-day stand-off in 2017 between the Indian and Chinese armies.

The organisation has also developed road infrastructure in some friendly neighbourhood countries.

The BRO has carried out formation work on 1,123.46 km of roads, surfacing work of 2,099.58 km of roads and resurfacing work on 2,339.38 km of roads this year so far.

Apart from roads, the BRO has also developed the Maj Pmt Bridge, 19 airfields and two tunnels in difficult and remote locations near the border areas in 2019.

This year, one of the BRO's achievements was the development of the 19.72 km Bheem Base-Dokala road that helps the Indian Army reach the strategic Dokala base, which stands at the edge of the disputed Doklam plateau near Sikkim, in just 40 minutes. Earlier, it used to take seven hours.

It is an all-weather black tarred road that has no restrictions on its load carrying capacity.

When the Indian Army was engaged in a tense stand-off with the Chinese People's Liberation Army in Doklam in 2017, access to the base used to take up to seven hours on a mule track.

Read also

Major construction work on 61 border roads complete: BRO

Border Roads Organisation to construct 6 important road projects in Srinagar in 2016

The BRO is also developing an underwater tunnel across the Brahmaputra. The approval-in-principle has been accorded by the Ministry of Defence and the proposal includes two road tubes and one rail tube.

The BRO is developing the 297-km long Nimmu-Padam-Darcha (N-P-D) road. Initially in 2002, this road was conceived to be developed to single lane specification under the Prime Minister's package for Jammu and Kashmir.

However, due to various reasons including operational, during 2007 it was decided to develop this road to National Highway Double Lane specification. Out of 297 km, connectivity has been achieved for 257.55 km so far.

The BRO is also developing the Akhnoor-Poonch road, Se La tunnel on the road to Balipara, Charduar and Tawang.

The BRO was entrusted with 61 Indo-China border roads having a length of 3,346 km.

Till date, 75 per cent of the road length has been black topped and 98 per cent connected. As on date, 36 roads totalling 2,501 km have been completed.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2020, 05:00:59 PM by ya »

Crafty_Dog

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Stratfor: In Taiwan fights rising tide of resistance
« Reply #334 on: January 10, 2020, 07:37:21 AM »


Stratfor Worldview

In Taiwan, China Fights the Rising Tide of Resistance
8 MINS READ
Jan 9, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen waves to supporters during a campaign rally on Jan. 7, 2020.
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party waves to supporters during a recent campaign rally ahead of the island's Jan. 11 elections.

(CHAN LONG HEI/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
HIGHLIGHTS
In light of the Hong Kong protests, Taiwanese voters are expected to reelect their pro-independence government on Jan. 11 -- accelerating the island’s move away from mainland China, and into the open arms of the United States....

Relations between China and Taiwan have nose-dived since the election of the island's independence-leaning president in 2016 and are now poised to plummet even further. President Tsai Ing-wen's strong defense of Taiwan's sovereignty in the face of the ongoing Hong Kong protests has helped pull her back from the brink of political death ahead of the island's Jan. 11 presidential elections. Not only is Tsai widely expected to beat the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) candidate, but the support garnered by the Hong Kong crisis has also greatly improved the prospects of her ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in concurrent legislative elections.

A victory by Tsai and the DPP would clear the way for Taiwan to continue inching toward independence with the help of the United States, even if doing so means inviting harder-line policies from China. Regardless of the election outcome, however, growing resistance against Beijing's desired "one country, two systems" arrangement — especially among Taiwan's younger generations — will confine the ability of any Taiwanese government to pursue a path toward cooperation with China for the foreseeable future.

The Big Picture
Taiwan will hold one of the most consequential elections in its history on Jan. 11. Against the backdrop of ongoing protests in Hong Kong, voters will choose between political parties with sharply diverging views on Taiwan's future relationship with mainland China. But even in the off-chance that a government friendlier to China emerges from the fray, the region's evolving economic, political and strategic realities mean cross-strait relations between Taipei and Beijing can hardly return to the previous status quo.


Reigniting a Familiar Fight

The prospect of bringing the democratic island under Chinese control has long been a sensitive and highly polarizing political issue in Taiwan. Over the past decade, however, the sovereignty debate has largely taken a backseat to economic concerns, such as Taiwan's stagnated growth, frozen wages and rising youth unemployment. With all eyes on the sluggish economy and her unpopular social policies, Tsai and the DPP were hemorrhaging support at the beginning of 2019. Indeed, Tsai's electoral prospects seemed all but doomed just six months ago, following the DPP's huge losses in 2018 local elections. Even before her opposition challengers had announced their candidacies, she was trailing by 10-30 points in almost every public opinion poll, which almost led to her defeat in the DPP's primaries. But since then, Tsai's political fortunes — and those of the DPP's — have dramatically improved alongside rising public sensitivities over Taiwanese sovereignty precipitated by the Hong Kong crisis.

The pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong over the past half-year (and Beijing's steely response to the crisis) have brought long-simmering issues over Taiwan's sovereignty and security back to the fore. Voters' renewed concerns with China's influence and perceived interference in Tawainese politics has, in turn, greatly strengthened Tsai's campaign narrative, which portrays Beijing as an existential threat to Taiwan's democracy and autonomy.

The Hong Kong protests have also showcased the weaknesses of the opposition KMT, as well as other China-friendlier parties whose credentials rest on maintaining cross-strait relations and the associated economic gains. Several months ago, the KMT seemed all but assured of gaining a majority in Taiwan's 113-seat legislature. But growing nationalist sentiment has since dimmed the party's prospects, paving the way for the DPP to secure a majority come Jan. 11 (whether alone or via a coalition) — an outcome that undoubtedly would help Tsai advance her anti-China strategy and other policy initiatives in her likely four more years in power. In addition, the highly contested nature of this year's legislative elections increases the chances for minor parties to take a bigger role in Taiwan's traditionally two-party politics.

A Prolonged Pro-Independence Push

Specifically, an extended DPP government would almost certainly expand its existing strategies to shore up Taiwan's sovereignty, bolster its defense, curb Beijing's political influence and counter its territorial claims by promoting security ties with the United States and other powers where it can. Over the DPP's past four-year term, these strategies have already placed the roughly 110-mile strait that separates Taiwan from mainland China at the center of Beijing's great power competition with Washington. And the continuation of such efforts under a reelected DPP administration would enable Taipei to align even more closely with U.S. efforts to counter China's regional influence.

This graphic shows Taiwan's exports from 2016 to 2019 and outgoing investment since 1991.
Tsai and the DPP's likely second term is also expected to accelerate the process of decoupling Taiwan's economic ties to the mainland. Taiwanese businesses in the mainland have long been a key source of China's foreign investment and a key pillar that Beijing has relied on to keep the island closer. But China's slowing economy, rising labor costs and an ongoing trade war with the United States have made it a far less attractive destination for an increasing number of the island's businesses. Further aiding the exodus of Taiwanese firms has been the DPP's renewed effort to lessen the island's broader reliance on the mainland economy by introducing incentives aimed at drawing investments back to the island and other emerging markets in Southeast Asia.

That said, the mainland still accounts for roughly 40 percent of total Taiwanese exports, as well as the majority of the island's outbound investments. Thus, the DPP's desired overhaul of Taipei's economic relationship with Beijing will be no easy feat, especially in sectors where the two have highly integrated supply chains, such as electronics and information technology. And indeed, the DPP's past attempts to reduce Taiwan's reliance on China have all largely been fruitless. This latest push, however, has so far shown real signs of impact. Between January and November 2019, Taiwanese investment in China declined by nearly half compared with the same period in 2018. And during the same period, investment into China's information technology manufacturing sector, in particular, dropped by more than 90 percent. In this, the United States has also helped ease this transition by increasingly filling Taiwan's exports where Beijing left off, leading Washington to become Taipei's second-largest trade partner in 2019 behind China.

Another Outcome?

There is, of course, a chance — albeit small — that the opposition KMT could win either the presidency or regain a legislative majority on Jan. 11. If so, a KMT government may seek to reboot economic links with the mainland. But it is unlikely to amend the decreased compatibility between both economies, as well as the growing costs of doing business in the mainland.

In contrast with the DPP, a KMT-led government can also be expected to prioritize more stable relations with mainland China by pledging to uphold its so-called One China policy. Such an approach would help stabilize cross-strait relations, as it would likely entail inviting Beijing to ease its pressure tactics and the poaching of Taipei's diplomatic allies. Caught in the tug-of-war of the U.S.-China rivalry, however, any possible KMT administration will still find it difficult to fend off Washington's push to more aggressively challenge Beijing's influence over the cross-strait balance — and likewise, a more forceful push from China for sovereignty.

Instead of bringing Taiwan to heel, Beijing's pressure campaign has seemingly solidified the prospects of a prolonged pro-independence push in Taipei.

But perhaps most importantly is the fact that rising public sensitivities over Taiwanese sovereignty will force any politician in Taipei who advocates for closer ties with China to walk a tight line, lest they are seen as submitting to Beijing's agenda and unification ambitions. Amid the ongoing unrest in Hong Kong, polls show that support for unification in Taiwan has reached an all-time low, and now falls anywhere between 5 and 10 percent. Similar to Hong Kong, the resistance in Taiwan will also be especially strong among the island's younger generations who weren't alive when Taiwan was under authoritarian rule, and thus grew up with little to no connection to the mainland. In a recent survey, nearly 60 percent of Taiwanese citizens between the ages of 20 and 34 said they supported the idea of a fully independent Taiwan. And the crackdown on the pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong has only cemented the youth's skepticism of China's intentions in Taiwan. As this generation inevitably gains a greater voice in Taiwanese politics, Beijing will face greater resistance to its desire to link and ultimately unify the island by whatever means necessary.

Weighing Beijing's Options
But instead of bringing Taiwan to heel, Beijing's current strategy of suppressing, limiting or neutralizing perceived pro-independence forces has seemed to only solidify the prospects of prolonged anti-China policies under a reelected DPP government. Such a government would likely be split between Tsai's more moderate camps and the party's more radical pro-independence elements. Thus, should Tsai's party win by a large margin on Jan. 11, Beijing may be forced to consider moderating its current hard-line stance in order to insulate the more radical wings in Taipei. The need for foreign investment, as well as the desire to maintain Taiwan's economic reliance, may also compel Beijing to create new incentives to draw in more Taiwanese business to the mainland.

That said, Beijing is still most likely to maintain or even double down on its hard-line policies against Taipei. This, of course, will come at the risk of escalating tensions with the island and could even create a Hong Kong-like confrontation. Thus, regardless of who wins Taiwan's upcoming election, future cross-strait relations will be intertwined closely with the context of China's economic slowdown and intensifying competition with the United States, as well as the rise of Taiwan's nationalistic sentiment.


DougMacG

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Re: Stratfor: In Taiwan fights rising tide of resistance
« Reply #335 on: January 10, 2020, 09:45:33 AM »
"The prospect of bringing the democratic island under Chinese control has long been a sensitive and highly polarizing political issue in Taiwan."

   - Who votes to have their sovereign island nation ceded to a totalitarian regime?  How about a deal that says once all mainlanders have full freedoms, then we will consider your nice offer.  Meanwhile we will be buy, build and deploy nuclear arms.

G M

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Re: Stratfor: In Taiwan fights rising tide of resistance
« Reply #336 on: January 10, 2020, 06:53:43 PM »
"The prospect of bringing the democratic island under Chinese control has long been a sensitive and highly polarizing political issue in Taiwan."

   - Who votes to have their sovereign island nation ceded to a totalitarian regime?  How about a deal that says once all mainlanders have full freedoms, then we will consider your nice offer.  Meanwhile we will be buy, build and deploy nuclear arms.
[/quote

https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/others/nuclear-power-in-taiwan.aspx

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-greatest-nightmare-taiwan-armed-nuclear-weapons-80041


ya

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ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #338 on: January 19, 2020, 04:19:36 PM »
Watch Pak squeal

https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1218790894679339008?s=20

"As Indian Occupation forces continue to target & kill civilians across the LOC with increasing intensity & frequency, there is an urgent need for UN SC to insist India allow UNMOGIP return to IOJK-side of LOC. We fear an Indian false flag operation."

"I want to make clear to India and the international community that if India continues its military attacks killing civilians across LOC, Pakistan will find it increasingly difficult to remain an inactive observer along the LOC."


ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #340 on: January 20, 2020, 06:21:14 PM »
Tarek Fatah is a patriotic indian muslim..
"Dr. David Frawley, an American who has settled in India and has embraced Indian heritage like few else, put it best when he tweeted: "You cannot criticize Islam in Pakistan because it is the majority. You cannot criticize Islam in India because it is a minority. Yet you can criticize Hinduism in India because it is a majority and in Pakistan because it is a minority. Yet Hindus are said to be intolerant."

The protests are arranged by the Congress and other lefties in cities...where its always possible to drum up a crowd. I would be surprised if they continue for long..at some time the public will get tired of the shenanigans. Inspite of CAA, hundreds of pakistani and bangladeshi as well as afghan muslims have been given Indian citizenship. These have been individuals who have been oppressed in their home countries for their political views.

Crafty_Dog

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Stratfor: East India-Southeast Asia
« Reply #341 on: January 25, 2020, 09:03:04 AM »


HIGHLIGHTS
China’s expansion into India's neighborhood will continue to drive India’s own outreach in Southeast Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific.
To strengthen India's territorial unity against Chinese threats, New Delhi is also ramping up development in the country's northeast region.
Boosting trade with Southeast Asian states, however, will partially depend on whether India can negotiate a favorable trade pact under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
India's emboldened eastern push reflects its aspiration to become one of Asia’s key military and economic powers — and the existential threat that China poses to realizing that dream. Beijing's growing influence, along with its increasingly forceful claims over disputed territories along India's border, is driving New Delhi to deepen its own political, economic and security relations in Southeast Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific under its "Act East" policy. Shortly after taking office in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the government initiative, which includes bolstering India's military presence and infrastructure development along its northeast border.

In addition to warding off China's imminent threat to India's territorial sovereignty, developing the country's northeastern wing — whose border with Myanmar positions it as India's gateway into Southeast Asia — has the potential to unlock new export markets for Indian trade, furthering the government's strategy of building a $5 trillion economy. Reaping those benefits, however, will first require striking a favorable trade deal with Southeast Asian states. Otherwise, India will risk falling even further behind China, whose military might, funding capacity and regional clout still far outstrip those of India's.

The Big Picture
Since taking office in 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has prioritized strengthening India's relationships across Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific to counter the rise of China, which remains India's chief strategic rival and the greatest threat to its territorial sovereignty. But a lack of funding and deadlocked free trade negotiations, among other challenges, risk impeding India's ability to assert itself in a region dominated by Beijing.

See India's Own Worst Enemy
The China Factor
A major driver behind India’s Act East policy is its need to balance against China. China’s $12.2 trillion economy is nearly five times the size of India’s, which enables Beijing to subsidize a robust military expansion. It also offers the Chinese government deep pools of capital for loans and investment across Asia and Europe under its trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). India worries a militarily assertive China will challenge Indian sovereignty along their disputed Himalayan boundary, including in India’s northeasternmost state of Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as a part of Tibet (conversely, India claims Chinese-controlled Aksai Chin as a part of the greater Kashmir dispute). As mutual suspicions drive their infrastructure buildup along the border regions, future border confrontations are all but inevitable. But beyond land, China’s expansion into South Asia and the Indian Ocean under the BRI has added a maritime dimension to India’s security concerns as well, fueling New Delhi's fears of encirclement as China funds ports in Pakistan and Sri Lanka.


Because India is the weaker military power, its concerns with China will continue to propel its desire to forge stronger security partnerships with various actors operating in the region to strike a more favorable balance of power. Since 2016, India and the United States have signed two foundational defense agreements covering basing access and encrypted communications. Washington and New Delhi have also upgraded their annual Malabar naval drills by inviting Japan — another key Indian regional partner — as a partner. Complementing these gestures, the Indian navy began year-round, mission-based deployments across seven regions in the Indian Ocean in 2017. India has increased its engagement in various regional organizations as well, including the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (which includes Thailand and Myanmar) and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (which includes Singapore, Thailand and Australia). New Delhi also recently offered the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) a $1 billion line of credit aimed at promoting increased "physical and digital" connectivity between India and the organization's 10 member states.

A Northeastern Front
Beyond security considerations in the Indo-Pacific, another objective of India’s Act East policy hinges on developing the country’s northeastern wing to advance India's territorial unity. Home to eight Indian states, the remote region is linked to the mainland by the roughly 11-mile wide Siliguri Corridor. During a 1962 border war, China conquered the Indian-administered regions of Aksai Chin and portions of Arunachal Pradesh before relinquishing control over the latter. To forestall another Chinese invasion, New Delhi intentionally neglected infrastructure development in the northeast for decades, stunting economic growth in the process. During that time, however, China’s growing military strength and assertion of control in its own border regions — including the road extension in Doklam that triggered a 73-day long border standoff in 2017 — has reinforced the importance of developing the region.

India has a long way to go before it can rival China's economic and military heft, though that won't keep it from trying.

Modi has long emphasized infrastructure development in the northeast. Shortly after taking office in 2014, his government created the National Highways & Infrastructure Development Corporation — an agency that oversees nearly 300 projects totaling 13,630 kilometers (8,469 miles) in national highways at a cost of about $29 billion. In recent years, New Delhi has also pushed to link India’s northeastern wing with Southeast Asia through neighboring Myanmar. This includes funding the construction of two sections and 69 bridges on the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway, as well as the development of the Sittwe Port in Myanmar to forge sea-based trade linked to West Bengal and overland routes with Mizoram. To further integrate the northeast region with the mainland, Modi’s government has quietly made moves to resolve long-running insurgencies in the region as well. After 22 years of talks, New Delhi is finally nearing a peace deal with a key faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland, a separatist group that operates in several northeast Indian states.

The Gateway to Southeast Asia
Using infrastructure to catalyze the development and integration of the northeastern wing makes eminent sense. But boosting its exports with Southeast Asia in the long term will, in part, depend on negotiating a more favorable free trade pact. Over the past decade, India's import growth has outpaced its exports with ASEAN countries, causing its politically sensitive trade deficit to more than quadruple from $5 billion in 2010-11 to nearly $22 billion in 2018-19. This is due largely to the shortcomings of the 2010 India-ASEAN trade pact, which the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) could help redress by creating the world’s largest free trade zone between the 10 ASEAN states and their six free trade partners of India, China, Japan, Australia, South Korea and New Zealand.


But despite the potential benefits of joining the RCEP pact, India has hesitated to join a trade agreement that includes China for fear it would hurt domestic employment by facilitating a surge of Chinese imports. Facing pressure from various lobbies opposed to the trade pact, Modi refused to ratify the final RCEP agreement in November. India remains the key outlier, raising the possibility of an RCEP-minus-India pact — an outcome that would complicate New Delhi's efforts to boost exports and, in turn, the country's economic growth.

Amid the evolving geopolitical landscape in Southeast Asia, India's desire to counter China's rise and boost trade with Southeast Asia will continue to shape New Delhi's pursuit of its Act East policy. As Beijing builds up its own infrastructure near the border regions and more forcefully asserts its claims of sovereignty over disputed territories, New Delhi will also work to facilitate military and infrastructure build-ups in the region. But given its northern neighbor's superior military and economic heft, India still has a long way to go before it can ever rival China as Asia's leading geopolitical power.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #342 on: February 17, 2020, 02:06:51 PM »
Thought you might like this matrimonial ad

Crafty_Dog

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #343 on: February 17, 2020, 02:12:40 PM »
Does "working girl" have the same context there as here?

G M

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #344 on: February 17, 2020, 02:47:48 PM »
Does "working girl" have the same context there as here?

Very much doubt it.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #345 on: February 17, 2020, 02:53:31 PM »
An effort at humor on my part  :-D

G M

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #346 on: February 17, 2020, 03:51:40 PM »
An effort at humor on my part  :-D

Copy. At least he knows what he wants. Lucky for him, there are at least 6.5 million women that meet his criteria!



Crafty_Dog

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