Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 223250 times)

Crafty_Dog

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« Last Edit: May 11, 2022, 09:47:39 AM by Crafty_Dog »


DougMacG

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Re: Missiles hitting Odesa
« Reply #602 on: May 11, 2022, 03:22:11 PM »
quote author=Crafty_Dog

"IMHO if Odesa falls, Ukraine is finished as a serious country.'
_________________________________________________

"If you own Odessa, you actually can go through Ukraine to the north, dividing Ukraine in two halves and there is literally nothing that can stop you,"
https://www.forces.net/ukraine/news/ukraine-where-odessa-and-why-it-important-russia
____________________________________________________________________

[Doug]  What if NATO or an American President stood up and said, enough is enough. 

ccp

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odessa
« Reply #603 on: May 11, 2022, 03:33:09 PM »
[Doug]  What if NATO or an American President stood up and said, enough is enough.

Haven't they been *saying* this?

What else can we do?


Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #604 on: May 11, 2022, 04:07:37 PM »
Not necessary to conquer and hold that much of Ukraine.

Making it landlocked (and perhaps taking a piece of Moldova) will leave Ukraine a hollow shell, with millions of Uke refugees having nothing to which to return while Russia takes over huge amounts of on shore and off shore resources and full naval access to the Black Sea.

At that point they can offer carrot and stick deals with Turkey for assured access through the Bosphorus into the Mediterranean.

DougMacG

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Re: odessa
« Reply #605 on: May 11, 2022, 04:59:12 PM »
[Doug]  What if NATO or an American President stood up and said, enough is enough.

Haven't they been *saying* this?

What else can we do?

Just thinking aloud, take over Kaliningrad or Vladivostok, maybe St. Petersburg, one of their port cities.  See how they like it.

G M

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Re: odessa
« Reply #606 on: May 11, 2022, 05:19:07 PM »
[Doug]  What if NATO or an American President stood up and said, enough is enough.

Haven't they been *saying* this?

What else can we do?

Just thinking aloud, take over Kaliningrad or Vladivostok, maybe St. Petersburg, one of their port cities.  See how they like it.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dxJHecyYBno

DougMacG

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Re: odessa
« Reply #607 on: May 11, 2022, 07:18:59 PM »
[Doug]  What if NATO or an American President stood up and said, enough is enough.

Haven't they been *saying* this?

What else can we do?

Just thinking aloud, take over Kaliningrad or Vladivostok, maybe St. Petersburg, one of their port cities.  See how they like it.

Maybe launch the attack from Finland.
https://shraibikus.com/1157956-568521157956.html  NATO setting up shop.

G M

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Re: odessa
« Reply #608 on: May 11, 2022, 07:30:55 PM »
[Doug]  What if NATO or an American President stood up and said, enough is enough.

Haven't they been *saying* this?

What else can we do?

Just thinking aloud, take over Kaliningrad or Vladivostok, maybe St. Petersburg, one of their port cities.  See how they like it.

Maybe launch the attack from Finland.
https://shraibikus.com/1157956-568521157956.html  NATO setting up shop.

Less time worrying about the Mafiya State known as Ukraine, more time worrying about the destruction of America.

ccp

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Russia to pull back?
« Reply #609 on: May 11, 2022, 09:01:49 PM »

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #610 on: May 12, 2022, 04:42:12 AM »
So Kherson is about 10,900 sq miles, Donetsk is 3400 sq miles, Luhansk 3200 sq miles, plus a huge ton of other territory...40, 000- sq miles. Good time for Russia to quit, while ahead. Water supply to Crimea has been protected. I am still not understanding how Russia has lost ?., is it western media not reporting the truth, or perhaps I am missing something. Their dreams of taking Odessa and land bridge to Transnystria might have to wait.

If Finland and Sweden apply to join Nato...plans could change.


« Last Edit: May 12, 2022, 05:00:56 AM by ya »

DougMacG

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Re: Russia to pull back?
« Reply #611 on: May 12, 2022, 04:50:12 AM »
https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-current-phase-invasion-cut-losses-kherson-referendum

the next big market pop?

No word from our disinformation czar on Russia saying they will stop the invasion while pushing west trying to leave the former Ukraine landlocked. Kherson is the region north of Crimea.  They are attacking Odessa while they spread the message of winding down Russian invasion operations.

Mostly they lie when their lips are moving. Otherwise they are too busy bombing and killing.


Crafty_Dog

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Sen. Rand Paul blocks fast track $40B to Ukraine
« Reply #613 on: May 13, 2022, 06:02:52 AM »
WT

Paul blocks Ukrainian aid package

Senator says $40 billion bill lacks sufficient oversight on spending

BY HARIS ALIC AND JOSEPH CLARK THE WASHINGTON TIMES

Sen. Rand Paul on Thursday blocked the Senate’s attempt to fast-track President Biden’s $40 billion military and humanitarian aid package for Ukraine over concerns there is insufficient oversight and transparency into how the money is being spent.

Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat, and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Kentucky Republican, both hoped for a swift final passage of the bill, after the House overwhelmingly approved the aid 368-57 on Tuesday.

But Mr. Paul, Kentucky Republican, blocked Mr. McConnell’s request for unanimous consent on the measure Thursday afternoon without the addition of language into the bill that would create a special inspector general to oversee the disbursal of aid to Ukraine.

The move was met with vitriol from both the Democrat and Republican leaders anxious to get the aid out the door. Mr. Paul’s objection will push the Senate’s final vote on the measure into next week.

“He is simply saying my way or the highway,” Mr. Schumer said. “When you have a proposal to amend a bill, you can’t just come to the floor and demand it by fiat. You have to convince other members to back it first. That is how the Senate works.”

Mr. McConnell reminded his colleagues of the urgency behind the aid.

“Sending lethal assistance to Ukraine is not just some kind of philanthropy,” he said. “This conflict has direct and major consequences for America’s national security and America’s national interest.”

Mr. Paul refused to budge on the added language, and raised further concerns about U.S. spending for the war amid economic uncertainty at home.

“My oath of office is to the U.S. Constitution, not any foreign nation … We cannot save Ukraine by dooming the U.S. economy,” Mr. Paul said. “It isn’t that we always have to be the Uncle Sam, the policeman that saves the world, particularly when it’s on borrowed money.” Mr. McConnell said, “Ukraine is not asking us to fight this war.”

“They’re only asking for the resources they need to defend themselves against this deranged invasion,” he said. “And they need this help right now.”

The bill, which includes $18.7 billion in military assistance, and funds to replenish U.S. stocks of weapons already sent to Ukraine, has overwhelming support in the Senate.

The bill hit an initial snag over Democrats’ calls to couple the aid with a proposal for $10 billion in additional COVID-19 funds.

ccp

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everyone now going to ukraine for photo ops
« Reply #614 on: May 14, 2022, 07:34:10 AM »

G M

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Re: everyone now going to ukraine for photo ops
« Reply #615 on: May 14, 2022, 07:41:03 AM »
They need to check in on their money laundering operations.


the in thing
the DC fad lately

did McConnell bring flowers ?:

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/mitch-mcconnell-volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-lethal-aid/2022/05/14/id/1069855/

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Ukes Winning
« Reply #616 on: May 15, 2022, 02:20:26 AM »
Ukraine Launches Counteroffensive to Disrupt Russian Supply Lines
Russian President Vladimir Putin warns Finland against joining NATO as GOP senators visit Kyiv

A multiple-rocket launcher fires near Svyatohirsk, eastern Ukraine. YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
By Yaroslav TrofimovFollow
 and Mauro OrruFollow
Updated May 15, 2022 12:01 am ET


KYIV, Ukraine—Ukraine began a counteroffensive toward the eastern city of Izyum aimed at disrupting Russian supply lines into the Donbas region, officials said, as Ukrainian forces continued clearing villages north of Kharkiv and Russian President Vladimir Putin warned his Finnish counterpart that joining NATO would risk damaging relations with Moscow.

According to the Kremlin, Mr. Putin told Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö in a phone call Saturday that ending its decadeslong nonaligned defense policy by joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would be a mistake for Helsinki. The Finnish leader initiated the call to explain to Mr. Putin how his invasion of Ukraine had altered the security environment, prompting Finland to seek NATO membership in the coming days.

“The conversation was direct and straightforward and was conducted without aggravations. Avoiding tension was considered important,” Mr. Niinistö said.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, meanwhile, said that Moscow would need to take “adequate precautionary measures” if NATO were to deploy infrastructure for nuclear weapons near Russia’s borders, including in Finland.

On Saturday, Russia’s Ambassador to the U.S., Anatoly Antonov, said the war in Ukraine is increasingly drawing Washington into conflict with Moscow.

“The situation today, is extremely, extremely dangerous. The U.S. is being drawn deeper and deeper into conflict with the most unpredictable consequences for relations between the two nuclear powers,” Mr. Antonov said on Russian television.

As the war entered its 80th day, Russian offensive operations in Donbas remained largely stalled following the failure of Russia’s ambitious attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets river and encircle the metropolitan area of Severodonetsk, the capital of the Ukrainian-administered Luhansk region.


With Western weapons continuing to flow into Ukraine, Ukrainian officials are beginning to say that a pivot in the war might be near, with Kyiv switching from defense to offense to reclaim large parts of southern and eastern Ukraine that remain under Russian rule.

“A strategic break in Ukraine’s favor is under way. This process will take time. But, in the long term, these trends make Russia’s defeat inevitable,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in an address to Ukrainian citizens.

After Russia’s initial plans to seize the capital, Kyiv, failed amid Ukrainian resistance, Mr. Putin in late March ordered his forces to pull back from northern Ukraine and concentrate on seizing the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that make up Donbas. Mr. Putin in February recognized the independence of the Moscow-created proxy states in Donbas, the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, which controlled roughly one-third of these two regions at the time.

Russia has established the forward headquarters of its operations to conquer Donbas in the town of Izyum, which straddles the Siverskyi Donets river in the Kharkiv region. Ukrainian troops have begun to push successfully toward the town, the head of the Kharkiv regional military administration, Oleh Synehubov, said Saturday.

“The Izyum direction remains our hottest point. That’s where our armed forces have begun a counteroffensive,” he said in a video address. “The enemy is retreating in some directions, which is the result of the character of our armed forces.”


With Russia’s monthlong offensive in Donbas showing only limited results, a bold attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets and encircle Severodonetsk that Russian forces began ahead of Victory Day on May 9 was meant to achieve a breakthrough. Instead, the failed crossing near the village of Bilohorivka has turned into a disaster for Russia, significantly slowing its momentum in Donbas.

The full scale of this Russian setback is emerging only now, with satellite imagery showing more than 70 Russian tanks, armored personnel carriers and other armor destroyed after Ukrainian artillery and airstrikes sank three pontoon bridges and shelled the Russian beachhead in Bilohorivka.

“We have never seen such dumb stubbornness, going with a frontal assault and trying to build pontoons in the same place three times in a row. But they still keep trying,” said Luhansk Gov. Serhiy Haidai. He added that Ukrainian artillery keeps shelling the area and, according to intelligence intercepts, an entire Russian battalion is refusing orders to attempt yet another crossing in Bilohorivka. That claim couldn’t be independently confirmed.


While Moscow hasn’t acknowledged the events in Bilohorivka, accounts from Russian military officers and observers on Telegram have described it as one of the Russian military’s most catastrophic defeats in this war, calling for the dismissal and punishment of generals who devised the failed operation.

Reverse Side of the Medal, a channel close to the Wagner private military contractor that is actively involved in the war in Ukraine, pointed out sardonically that the Russian commanders in the Bilohorivka operation were “guided by the principle that the shell doesn’t fall into the same place twice and that if you don’t see the enemy, he cannot see you.”

Ukrainian artillery managed to destroy at least a battalion’s worth of Russian armor because it is employing drones and sophisticated reconnaissance technology to achieve precision, Wagner’s channel added. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine use the Western system of smart battle management, and we use a ruler on a paper map,” it said.


In Kyiv, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) and GOP Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, John Cornyn of Texas and John Barrasso of Wyoming met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday, according to Mr. Zelensky and a U.S. official. The meeting comes after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) and a delegation of Democratic lawmakers went to the capital city to meet with Mr. Zelensky earlier this month.

In a statement with accompanying video, Mr. Zelensky said the visit was a powerful signal of bipartisan support for Ukraine from Congress and the American people. A $40 billion aid package for Ukraine is stalled in the Senate over objections from GOP Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky. Mr. McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) had pushed for the bill’s passage together Thursday to request unanimous agreement from all 100 senators to allow a vote on the bill immediately.

A U.S. official confirmed the visit and said it wasn’t publicized in advance because of security concerns. Representatives for the senators didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

North of Donbas, a string of Ukrainian military victories in recent days pushed Russian forces outside of field artillery range of the city of Kharkiv, where more than 2,000 residential apartment buildings have been destroyed in more than two months of pounding. In a sign of relative normalcy returning to Kharkiv, the municipality said public-transport services would resume Monday. It will initially be free of charge given that so many city residents have lost their jobs because of the war, said Mayor Ihor Terekhov.

Ukraine’s military has confirmed that its forces have reached the town of Ternova, on the border with Russia north of Kharkiv. “The enemy didn’t conduct active combat actions in the Kharkiv direction,” Ukraine’s General Staff said Saturday. “Its main effort was focused on pulling back troops from the city of Kharkiv, maintaining positions and protecting supply lines.”

The retreat of Russian forces from areas north of Kharkiv is covered by poorly armed recruits drafted in the Luhansk People’s Republic. In a video released on Telegram on Friday, these fighters said that their battalion, which fled to the Russian border north of Kharkiv, was stranded at the gate, with Russian authorities refusing to let them cross and threatening to imprison them if they don’t turn around and fight.

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #617 on: May 15, 2022, 07:50:07 AM »
Russia is using some hardcore bombs...might be illegal.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1525850300187258883

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Good news, Uke refugees beginning to return
« Reply #618 on: May 16, 2022, 04:00:46 AM »
Ukrainian Refugees Are Heading Home in Droves
Many are returning after Russian pullback from parts of the country: ‘We had the feeling that we were in the wrong place.’

Hanna Kopylova traveled through the Krakow International Airport in Poland from Bergamo, Italy, on her way to return to Kyiv.
By Natalia Ojewska and Ian LovettFollow
/Photographs by Sasha Maslov for The Wall Street Journal
May 16, 2022 6:06 am ET

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PRZEMYSL, Poland—When  Russia invaded Ukraine nearly three months ago, Hanna Kopylova fled Kyiv with her two children for northern Italy.

The family was safe in Bergamo, where her parents have owned a home for years. But on a recent weekend, Ms. Kopylova kissed her children goodbye and headed back into Ukraine on her own.

“I am afraid,” said Ms. Kopylova, 34 years old, but added, “When you see all this bravery on the news, you want to be part of it.”

Ukrainian refugees are heading home in droves, following the Russian pullback from the central part of the country.


People lined up to board a train to Kyiv at the station in Przemyśl, Poland, this month.
More people have returned to Ukraine than left the country in recent days, the country’s border service said on Sunday. On Saturday, 37,000 people left Ukraine via crossings to the European Union and Moldova, and 46,000 entered the country. Crossings in and out of Poland—where the majority of those who fled Ukraine have gone—have been roughly even since mid-April.

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Overall, millions of Ukrainians remain in exile across Europe: Almost six million have left the country since the war began, according to United Nations statistics, while roughly 1.5 million people have entered the country over the same period.

Since the Russian pullback, many areas that Ukrainians fled in February and March are now relatively safe, including Kyiv.

“Refugees almost always want to go home,“ said Gillian Triggs, assistant high commissioner for protection with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. ”If there has been a withdrawal of Russian forces and they want to go back to their villages, they will do it, even though they know the shells are still falling and there is danger.”

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Though occasional shells continue to hit the capital and its surroundings, more refugees each day are deciding that it is now time to head home. Some want to see their husbands (who, in most cases, weren’t allowed to leave the country), or take care of elderly parents. Others, like Ms. Kopylova, say they feel a need to help their country however they can.

Even after her ex-husband told her she couldn’t bring the children back with her, Ms. Kopylova said, she remained determined to go. Her partner is in the territorial defense, and she said she hopes to volunteer bringing food and other goods to recently liberated areas: “I have a car, hands and legs. I can help, too.”

Throughout the war, Ukrainians have been heading back home for a variety of reasons. In the early weeks, thousands of young men who had been living abroad returned home to fight. Some people found work ferrying humanitarian or military aid into the country. Older Ukrainians often helped get their loved ones out but then returned home themselves, preferring the risks of war to the prospect of restarting life in a foreign country.


Liubor Piatetska got ready to bring her daughters to Kyiv from the Przemyśl train station in Przemyśl, Poland.

Karina Tomchuk, left, and Alina Kabanets waited for a train in Przemyśl on their way back home to the Kyiv region.
Though there are no statistics on exactly who is crossing the border, the demographics of those heading back to Ukraine appear to have shifted. In the Polish border town of Przemyśl, hundreds of women lined up for trains back to Ukraine on a recent weekend.

Like several others lined up on a recent Sunday, Liubor Piatetska, a 26-year-old mother of two, was bringing her children back into Ukraine with her. During the two months since she fled Kyiv to stay with friends in Sweden, she had hardly been able to speak to her husband. A Ukrainian soldier who has been fighting in Kharkiv, he seldom has an internet connection. He sometimes manages to call his mother, who is also in Ukraine, and she gives Ms. Piatetska updates. Her parents and siblings also remained in Ukraine.

“Everyone in Sweden was telling me, ‘Stay, please stay,’” she said. “It’s love that brings me home. The love for Ukraine and of my husband. Even though we had very comfortable living conditions in Sweden, we had the feeling that we were in the wrong place.”

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Alona Gorkavchuk took a bus home to Ukraine with daughter Liza after two months spent in Warsaw.
Ms. Piatetska said she hopes to return to her job in an electronics shop. The city’s subway has reopened, albeit at a vastly reduced schedule. A ban on the sale of alcohol imposed in the first days of the war has been lifted. And businesses that were closed for months are starting to open their doors again—adding to the allure of home for those who have spent the last few months abroad.

“I have a coffeehouse on my street that has prepared food for soldiers for two months, and now half the day they prepare coffee again,” said Daryna Antoniuk, a 21-year-old student and journalist who spent the first months of the war in Latvia and has gone back to Ukraine “They kept me so motivated.”

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What does the return of refugees indicate about the future of Ukraine? Join the conversation below.

Returnees are aware of the dangers. A Russian missile hit a 21-story apartment building over two weeks ago when the United Nations secretary-general was visiting the city. But as the war has dragged into its third month, getting to go home, they say, means accepting some level of risk. Many acknowledged they might end up having to flee again.

Marina Volynets has already fled conflict with Russia twice. A native of Donetsk, she first left to stay with her sister in Amsterdam in 2014, when Russian-backed forces invaded that region. Unable to find a job, she moved back to Ukraine and settled in Kyiv the following year, where she lived until February. Then, she left for Amsterdam a second time, before continuing to Portugal.

Ms. Volynets has now returned to Kyiv. Her husband is unable to leave the country and is working as a cook for the Ukrainian army. Her parents also stayed in Ukraine.

“I find it more difficult to stay away and just wait” for the war to end without any idea when that will be, she said. “Yes, it will be more difficult and more scary and more dangerous” at home, she said, “but at least it will be our life as a family.”

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #619 on: May 21, 2022, 04:19:24 PM »
In the last 72 h, the battle has been moving Russia's way. From the Azov battalion surrender (2400 soldiers), to many areas in the Donbass region. Something has changed.

Crafty_Dog

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ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #622 on: May 22, 2022, 02:50:03 PM »
Ukraine could have held a referendum in Donbas (Minsk agreement) and agreed to Crimea as Russian territory. Its too late now. Russia is focussed on getting the whole of Donbas, once that is done, Odessa will be challenged and after that a land bridge to Transnystria. Over the longer term, Russia has more resources and potent weapons and will win.

The loss of the nazi Azov battalion was a big psychological victory for Russia and a loss for Ukr. After their surrender, Russia has been gaining territory and Zelensky is starting to talk peace.

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #623 on: May 22, 2022, 09:11:04 PM »
Ukraine could have held a referendum in Donbas (Minsk agreement) and agreed to Crimea as Russian territory. Its too late now. Russia is focussed on getting the whole of Donbas, once that is done, Odessa will be challenged and after that a land bridge to Transnystria. Over the longer term, Russia has more resources and potent weapons and will win.

The loss of the nazi Azov battalion was a big psychological victory for Russia and a loss for Ukr. After their surrender, Russia has been gaining territory and Zelensky is starting to talk peace.

I agree.

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #624 on: May 26, 2022, 05:32:29 PM »
Look like mainstream media has started to show that things may not be going all that well for Ukr. They have lost a lot of territory in the Donbas.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/26/ukraine-frontline-russia-military-severodonetsk/

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #625 on: May 27, 2022, 04:33:09 AM »
Dotted pink/yellow areas are recent Russian advances


ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #626 on: May 29, 2022, 11:42:38 AM »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #627 on: May 29, 2022, 01:13:06 PM »
Very interesting!

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #628 on: May 30, 2022, 05:35:36 PM »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #629 on: May 30, 2022, 05:58:32 PM »
Wonder where the $40B is going to go?


G M

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ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #633 on: June 03, 2022, 08:21:51 AM »
Zelensky claims Russia now occupies 125,000 sqkm of territory, which is about 77,000 sq miles, almost twice of my conservative estimate of 40,000 sq miles a months ago. Giving weapons to Ukr will not help. because Russia will use more powerful weapons on Ukr and destroy it completely. The USA is willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian...in the process we will end up destroying our own economy and the US dollar. Already reports of US stingers etc finding their way to the Middle east and then will be used in European cities.

Check this very interesting read, by someone who interviewed Putin many times and knows a thing or two.
https://unherd.com/2022/06/putins-war-is-just-beginning/

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #634 on: June 03, 2022, 08:29:45 AM »
Exactly.


Zelensky claims Russia now occupies 125,000 sqkm of territory, which is about 77,000 sq miles, almost twice of my conservative estimate of 40,000 sq miles a months ago. Giving weapons to Ukr will not help. because Russia will use more powerful weapons on Ukr and destroy it completely. The USA is willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian...in the process we will end up destroying our own economy and the US dollar. Already reports of US stingers etc finding their way to the Middle east and then will be used in European cities.

Check this very interesting read, by someone who interviewed Putin many times and knows a thing or two.
https://unherd.com/2022/06/putins-war-is-just-beginning/

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #635 on: June 03, 2022, 07:11:38 PM »
Very interesting article YA.

What does it imply for the argument that all would be well but for the Ukes wanting to join NATO?


Crafty_Dog

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NRO: Sunk Costs and Pot Commitment
« Reply #637 on: June 04, 2022, 01:20:01 PM »
By MICHAEL BRENDAN DOUGHERTY
June 3, 2022 10:20 AM
In the great game around Ukraine, Joe Biden seems like a player who is going to have trouble distinguishing between sunk costs and pot commitment.
Sometimes in a game of poker you feel compelled to throw more chips into the middle of the table even when you know you’re likely to lose the hand. Usually, it’s a psychological trick you’ve played on yourself. It’s the sunk-cost fallacy. You’ve already invested so much on the opening bet, then more on the subsequent flop, and more still on the turn, that your pride or your fear moves your hand forward at the end. You’re just hoping to get lucky.

But sometimes, throwing more chips in at that point is the mathematically correct decision. The combination of your own and others’ circumstances conspire to make throwing good money after bad the most rational decision. Perhaps you’re running low on chips altogether, and a number of players acted irrationally at the start of the hand, over-betting at first but folding once they suspected that another player had drawn the top possible hand. You didn’t make your straight and are stuck with something no better than a high pair. But the pot has grown to a size 30 times larger than your remaining stack of chips. Nothing can be undone. You suspect the last remaining player has a full house. All that’s left is your small remaining bet and the potential large prize. This is what’s known as “pot commitment.” You have every reason to believe that you’re going into the final card well behind in the hand, and your chance of “sucking out” at the end is small. But the pot is too large now. Mathematically, your small chance of winning is overwhelmed by the prize itself. You can’t turn away now. You just have to push your chips in and hope it works out.

Many players never quite master the math that allows them to distinguish between falling for a sunk-cost fallacy and recognizing the actual pot odds. Sometimes they coincide — playing like a sucker for sunk costs leads one to be pot-committed. In each situation, the play was likely driven by improbable turns of play and the consequent emotional swings. A hand that was developing well may sink in the end.

In the great game around Ukraine, Joe Biden seems like a player who is going to have trouble distinguishing between sunk costs and pot commitment.

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He doesn’t seem to know his own redlines. For weeks, he tried to draw them. No MiG aircraft for Ukraine — Biden himself scuttled that in March. By April, with Ukraine doing better than expected and Russia on the back foot, NATO began delivering ready-to-assemble MiGs. More recently, Biden has gone back and forth about sending certain rocket systems to Russia.

In Biden’s March speech in Poland, the drafted remarks were about limiting U.S. commitment to Ukraine and restating the depth of U.S. commitment to existing NATO members. He vowed that the Kremlin was wrong “to portray NATO enlargement as an imperial project aimed at destabilizing Russia.”

But late in the speech, Biden’s emotions got the best of him, and he departed from the text to call for regime change in Russia. Putin “cannot remain in power,” he said, a comment that had to be promptly walked back by the White House. Though later, Defense secretary Lloyd Austin explained that the U.S. wants to “see Russia weakened” in this war. This reflected a lot of loose talk from the administration at the start of the war that the hope was to force Putin’s downfall.

At the flop, Russia’s war against Ukraine looked like an absolute dud. And the U.S. has started investing its chips: our treasure, and our nation’s honor and credibility. In recent weeks, Russia has limited its operations, settling on a devastating form of artillery attack in the Donbas that is yielding results.

This presents the unattractive possibility that Putin may be able to claim some kind of victory out of this war, perhaps a smaller one than he imagined, but one that he can reasonably say was over not just Ukraine but NATO itself. Putin is not just “demilitarizing” Ukraine but depleting America’s stock of Javelin missiles in the bargain. All the current talk of NATO rejuvenated will sour on that turn of the cards. And Joe Biden would face a Republican Party that would unite instantly on his weakness if not his recklessness. When players get emotional in poker they go “on tilt” and start playing hyper-aggressively and irrationally. There’s danger ahead.


Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #639 on: June 08, 2022, 10:18:17 AM »
Yet another reason to not let the Feds disarm or downgrade us.

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #640 on: June 08, 2022, 10:30:38 AM »
Yet another reason to not let the Feds disarm or downgrade us.

You better believe Putin will be sure to deliver them to various groups here. I'm not sure how you say "Payback" in Russian, but I know it's a concept they believe in deeply.

Javelin missiles can chew up Police Bearcats quite easily.


Crafty_Dog

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Crafty_Dog

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WT: Euro unity cracking
« Reply #644 on: June 16, 2022, 02:11:34 AM »
UKRAINE

War-weary Europeans start to crack unity against Russia

Former NATO officials warn of ‘bad peace’

BY BEN WOLFGANG THE WASHINGTON TIMES

Cracks are deepening across Europe over how to handle the Russia-Ukraine endgame, according to data released Wednesday, as a growing number of Europeans favor immediate peace over the continuation of a hard-line anti-Russia stance that has defined Western policy since the start of the war nearly four months ago.

Former NATO Secretary- General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said Europe has hit a “fork in the road” with respect to the war in Ukraine. He acknowledged that rifts have emerged as the fighting drags on, casualties mount, and food and fuel prices skyrocket around the world. Other former NATO officials warned some European leaders — presumably those in Italy and Hungary, the most vocal proponents of an immediate cease-fire — against pushing Ukraine “into a bad peace” and offering any concessions to the aggressor, Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Even as NATO defense

officials gathered in Brussels on Wednesday to map out the next round of assistance to the Ukrainian military and as President Biden announced another $1 billion U.S. military aid package, it became increasingly clear that the European public is rapidly growing weary of war and wants its leaders to push for peace.

Ukrainian officials, led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have said they are fighting to oust Russia from every inch of Ukrainian territory, including the Crimean Peninsula, which Mr. Putin annexed eight years ago. Mr. Zenelskyy’s goal was spurred by early victories by Kyiv. U.S. and NATO officials have repeatedly said they would back any peace deal that is acceptable to the Zelenskyy government.

Complicating that message are statements from world leaders. President Biden insisted that Mr. Putin must step down from power, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Russia must be “weakened” and incapable of such aggression again.

A study by the European Council on Foreign Relations published Wednesday found that a plurality of Europeans, about 35%, favor “peace now even at the cost of Ukrainian concessions to Russia.” The startling figure strongly suggests that Europe’s appetite to hold Moscow accountable for the war may be crumbling.

The survey was conducted in mid-May and sampled 8,000 Europeans.

About 22% of respondents said “justice” is the most important consideration. They say only Russia’s clear defeat can bring about peace. Another 23% declined to choose between those options, and 20% were classified as swing voters.

The survey showed extreme differences from one country to another. For example, 52% of the Italian public and 49% of the German public favor immediate peace, but just 16% of Polish citizens share that view. Instead, 41% of Poles say defeating Russia is the No. 1 priority and the only path to peace, compared with 19% of Germans and 16% of Italians.

In France, 41% called for peace and just 20% fell into the “justice” category. In Britain, the public was split, with 22% calling for immediate peace and 21% saying Russia must be defeated. The remaining 39% of French citizens and 58% of Britons either declined to choose or were classified as swing voters, according to the report.

“The findings of the poll suggest that European public opinion is shifting, and that the toughest days may lie ahead. The resilience of European democracies will mostly depend on the capacity of governments to sustain public support for policies that will ultimately bring pain to different social groups,” the European Council on Foreign Relations said in a statement accompanying its report. “The survey reveals a growing gap between the stated positions of many European governments and the public mood in their countries. The big looming divide is between those who want to end the war as quickly as possible and those who want to carry on fighting until Russia has been defeated.”

Fueling the divide is the transformation of the conflict into a bloody slog in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Russian forces are waging a war of attrition against an outgunned and outmanned Ukrainian military. The fiercest fighting has been in and around Sievierodonetsk, a key strategic city that remains contested despite weeks of an unrelenting Russian assault. The Ukrainian governor of the Luhansk province, Serhiy Haidai, told The Associated Press on Wednesday that the situation inside the city is growing worse.

“But our military is holding back the enemy from three sides at once,” he said. “The enemy is advancing because of significant advantage in artillery and people, but the Ukrainian army is holding on to its positions in the city.”

Russian troops reportedly hit weapons depots in western Ukraine in a bid to stop badly needed guns, ammunition and equipment from reaching the front lines in the Donbas. Mr. Zelenskyy said in a Tuesday evening video address that his troops will keep fighting.

“The losses, unfortunately, are painful, but we have to hold out,” he said. “The more losses the enemy suffers there, the less strength it will have to continue the aggression. Therefore, the Donbas is key to determining who will dominate in the coming weeks.”

Arming Ukraine Mr. Zelenskyy spoke by phone with Mr. Biden on Wednesday. Shortly afterward, the U.S. president announced the latest American aid package.

“I informed President Zelenskyy that the United States is providing another $1 billion in security assistance for Ukraine, including additional artillery and coastal defense weapons, as well as ammunition for the artillery and advanced rocket systems that the Ukrainians need to support their defensive operations in the Donbas,” Mr. Biden said in a statement released by the White House.

The latest U.S. shipment includes artillery rocket munitions, 18 additional M-77 howitzers and the tactical vehicles to tow them, and 36,000 rounds of 155 mm howitzer ammunition.

Mr. Austin announced the details during a press conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

“Ukraine is facing a pivotal moment on the battlefield,” Mr. Austin said. “We’re seeing what [Mr. Zelenskyy] warned us about: After failing to take Kyiv and after reassessing its combat aims, Russia has shifted its focus to the Donbas.”

European leaders also have vowed to ramp up weapons shipments to Ukraine, but growing public calls for immediate peace will surely complicate those efforts. Former NATO officials say some European governments are making a grave mistake by appearing to weaken their stance toward Russia.

“Politically, NATO allies could also do much more. First of all, we could strengthen deterrence … by keeping all options on the table,” former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Wednesday at a virtual forum hosted by the Atlantic Council, a leading Washington think tank.

“To my mind, many NATO leaders have been too eager to exclude this or that action,” he said. “I think we should keep our adversary in uncertainty. That’s the most effi cient deterrent. And NATO allies should not push Ukraine into a bad peace. It’s only for the Ukrainians, it’s for President Zelenskyy and his government to decide the terms of a cease-fire or a peace deal.”

Mr. Rasmussen’s comments seem to have been a direct response to the public positions of Italy and Hungary, which late last month pushed the European Union to call for a cease-fire in Ukraine and direct peace talks with Mr. Putin. That position seemed to break from those of other key EU members, which have publicly insisted that helping Ukraine defeat Russia and push Russian forces out of Ukrainian territory must be the overarching goal.

Mr. Scheffer said those opposing viewpoints are coming to a head.

“I think politically, we might be at a fork in the road,” he said at the Atlantic Council event. “And I see from time to time our leaders in NATO and in the European Union making comments which give me the impression that they’re not always singing from the same hymn sheet.”

He acknowledged the wildly different views of the Russian threat across Europe.

“If you’re living in Poland or living in the Baltic states, the threat is perceived differently than when you live in the Hague or in Madrid or in Rome, for that matter,” he said.



Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #647 on: June 18, 2022, 05:34:12 AM »
So, if you were President, what would you do now?

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #648 on: June 18, 2022, 06:51:36 AM »
So, if you were President, what would you do now?

Do what should have been done at the start, cut a deal while there are still things worth saving.

Or, you know, not provoke a war to begin with.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #649 on: June 18, 2022, 06:54:37 AM »
So, pull the rug from under the hard fighting Ukes and accede to Russian conquest so far?  Any concerns about devastating what remains of our credibility as an ally?  Might this affect our efforts to form an alliance to stop China?