Author Topic: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold  (Read 671601 times)

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2350 on: December 01, 2022, 05:12:08 AM »
Letter to the ECB, inresponse to their brain dead article

https://twitter.com/CosmoCrixter/status/1598070236401766400/photo/1

DougMacG

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2351 on: December 01, 2022, 05:51:55 AM »

Every recession is preceded by an inverted yield curve, but not every inverted yield curve leads to a recession.

Ya is right.  The reason being, recession right now is avoidable by adopting fiscally responsible, pro growth policies.

Steve Moore CTUP (Art Laffer et al) writes:
(I'll try to add the graphs.)
12/01/2022
Who’s Afraid Of An Inverted Yield Curve?

The yield curve – the spread between the interest rate on a 10-year Treasury note and a two-year Treasury has turned decisively negative. This means the rate of interest on short-term bonds is higher than on long-term bonds. Many economists have noted that this is a strong predictor of a coming recession and is an expression of severe investor risk aversion. The yield curve now stands at -0.8% and that is the most negative since 1982.
 


Most recessions are preceded by inverted yield curves, as shown below.

An analysis by economists at the University of Chicago notes that “the yield-curve slope becomes negative before each economic recession since the 1970s.”
 


But we aren’t buying the idea that a recession is baked into the cake for 2023. There’s a very benign explanation for why we have a negative/inverted yield curve. Investors believe that inflation is going to continue to gradually come down, and stay down, for the next decade. If they didn’t believe this, they wouldn’t be buying long-term bonds at such a low-interest rate yield.

In other words, if you thought that the average inflation was going to be above 5% for the next decade, you would be losing money (adjusted for inflation) by buying a 10-year bond yielding the current interest rate of 3.75%. But investors ARE buying long-term bonds at these low rates which means inflationary expectations are falling. This is reflected in the 10-year break-even interest rate (TIPS spread) which stands at 2.6% today and has been drifting downward since July.
 


Or let us state the point differently. Would you feel better about the prospects for the U.S. economy if the long-term interest rate were, say, 10%? That would certainly end the reign of the inverted yield curve, but it would also mean a 12% or more interest rate on a mortgage or a business loan.

Our view is that the best way to fight off a recession and inflation is for Republicans in the House to call for massive ($1 trillion or more) cuts in government debt spending and by expanding the supply side of the economy by opening up the spigots on American energy production.
-----------

Simple.  Rightsize spending and unleash energy and enterprise.  Does anyone believe Biden and Warnock will do that?

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2352 on: December 01, 2022, 07:10:30 AM »
I would note the similarity with Scott Grannis's analysis.


Crafty_Dog

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OAN: 3 crypto CEOs die mysteriously in a month
« Reply #2354 on: December 02, 2022, 03:54:32 PM »
I once had some hopes for OAN but they have faded.  Haven't watched this clip yet, but post it just in case it has content worth noticing.


https://www.oann.com/video/real-america-video/3-crypto-company-ceos-mysteriously-die-with-a-month/

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2355 on: December 03, 2022, 05:39:00 AM »
Its going to be a slow grind back up. Next halving is in 2024, so far there has always been a pre-halving rally. Thats what the chart shows.


ya

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Zoltan
« Reply #2356 on: December 06, 2022, 05:43:09 PM »
Zoltan writes brilliantly, one of my favorites, scroll to the first page by clicking left arrows

https://twitter.com/MichaelGoodwell/status/1599936367932231680/photo/1
« Last Edit: December 07, 2022, 12:01:15 PM by Crafty_Dog »

DougMacG

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« Last Edit: December 06, 2022, 09:39:51 PM by DougMacG »

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2358 on: December 08, 2022, 04:51:04 AM »



ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2361 on: December 13, 2022, 04:59:56 AM »
Lots of BTC conferences, biggest one in Miami. Adoption is increasing

ccp

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arrest SBFreed
« Reply #2362 on: December 13, 2022, 05:39:29 AM »
what is strange it is that it happens day before he is to testify remotely with Congress.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/12/democrat-mega-donor-sbf-arrested-hours-facing-questions-congress/

just another manipulation from DOJ? Biden administration stealing thunder from Congress?

this is not coincidence .

DougMacG

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US Dollar falls 9% since Sept
« Reply #2363 on: December 13, 2022, 06:46:54 AM »
If a "strong" dollar was so good, what say those people about it tumbling?

A sign of weakening output and inflation to come.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/the-sum-of-all-fears-is-falling-with-the-dollar/2022/12/08/75ef399a-76c0-11ed-a199-927b334b939f_story.html

NOBODY in the Biden administration reads the forum.

ccp

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Biden : were on track and doing great ; more work to do though;
« Reply #2364 on: December 13, 2022, 09:42:10 AM »
claims the national debt is down 1.7 trill

What ????

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-biden-delivers-remarks-following-reports-that-inflation-has-slowed

why do I not feel good after I listen to him?  :wink:

Biden: after giving us the BS Ron Klain speech  - "I am not taking any questions right now"

DougMacG

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Re: Biden : we're on track and doing great; more work to do though;
« Reply #2365 on: December 13, 2022, 11:29:15 AM »
claims the national debt is down 1.7 trill

What ????

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-biden-delivers-remarks-following-reports-that-inflation-has-slowed

why do I not feel good after I listen to him?  :wink:

Biden: after giving us the BS Ron Klain speech  - "I am not taking any questions right now"

As he repeated it, he said deficit, debt, deficit. 

He refers to a reduction to the deficit his own reckless spending caused and an economy coming out of Democrat led shutdowns.


Now he has record deficits again.

Sycophant pretend journalists let it slide.  Imagine a Republican this blatantly misleading with the facts.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-deficit-widened-to-a-record-249-billion-last-month-11670871622
« Last Edit: December 13, 2022, 04:00:34 PM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Crafty_Dog

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Crafty_Dog

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Kevin O'Leary blames 2.0
« Reply #2370 on: December 15, 2022, 07:41:21 AM »

ccp

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2371 on: December 15, 2022, 08:14:06 AM »
as for the other name mentioned in above article

is actor Ben McKenzie Schenkkan who I never heard of till just now:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_McKenzie

apparently he wrote a book so he is some sort of an authority on the subject worthy of speaking at a Congressional hearing............. :-o

ya

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Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, bitcoin, crypto, Gold/Silver
« Reply #2372 on: December 16, 2022, 04:18:19 AM »


Crafty_Dog

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AMcC: Prog regulators salivating over SBF Scandal
« Reply #2374 on: December 17, 2022, 01:06:56 PM »



Progressive Regulators Are Salivating over the Sam Bankman-Fried Scandal
By ANDREW C. MCCARTHY
December 17, 2022 6:30 AM

In the FTX implosion, officials see a crisis they can exploit to regulate crypto — but rash action could do more harm than good.
There is a significant political dimension to the federal legal actions taken this week by the Justice Department, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission against alleged mega-swindler Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the now-imploded FTX cryptocurrency exchange. We need to keep our eye on the ball.

Like Democrats everywhere, Biden administration officials see crypto as the “Wild West” of finance, as the SEC’s aggressive honcho Gary Gensler has limned it. There isn’t enough government oversight, they say. For progressives, the rule of the road is “If you see something, regulate something.”

Naturally, then, they are hot to get their nanny-state tentacles around crypto. To do so legally, though, is not so straightforward — not that such an inconvenience has stopped progressives from trying before. The statutory architecture for policing securities is nearly 90 years old, and there remains controversy over whether comparatively novel cryptocurrencies constitute securities under its coverage, as Gensler insists they do.

The Commodity Exchange Act is New Deal–era legislation, in which Congress sought to regulate more complex financial arrangements (e.g., futures and options). Although the CTFC was not created until 1974, that’s still 35 years before Bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency of note, appeared on the scene. In “because we say so” style, the CFTC maintains that cryptocurrencies are regulable as commodities. Yet the law is sufficiently unclear that the Senate has been considering bipartisan legislation, the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act, co-sponsored by senators Debbie Stabenow (D., Mich.) and John Boozman (R., Ark.), that, if enacted, would bring two major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ether, under the ambit of CFTC oversight.

Ergo, for all their bluster, prosecutors and administrative agencies know they are not on the surest of legal footing as they contradictorily urge both that crypto is already under their thumb and that urgent action is required to put it under their thumb. Historically, this is not unusual: Much of today’s securities law is a result of regulations that push the limits of the SEC’s statutory authority, which prosecutors, mainly in the Southern District of New York (with Wall Street in the backyard), proceed to press further still by their creative prosecution theories.

Of course, where the administrative state sees regulatory gaps as opportunities for mischief and, therefore, bureaucratic scrutiny, many Americans see, instead, havens of liberty and innovation that Washington should leave alone. Progressive “reforms” often make matters worse.

With this as the state of play, you can see why progressives eye crypto so warily. It is not just that the novel digital currencies evade the full run of extensive disclosure-and-monitoring protocols that the feds impose on American financial markets in equities and debt. It is that crypto’s raison d’être is to shield monetary instruments and their exchange from the control and oversight of governments.

Sam Bankman-Fried: Virtue-Signaling Scammer

FTX Spokesman, Shark Tank Co-Host Kevin O’Leary Blames Competitor for Firm’s Collapse in Senate Hearing
The crypto sector employs blockchain technology to issue digital currency (represented by “tokens”), believing it will ultimately prove more creditworthy than fiat currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, the world’s reserve currency. Untethered to any external standard of value, fiat currencies are seen as arbitrary, subject to the reckless fiscal policies of governments and the whims of central bankers (e.g., you’d need close to $7 today to buy what $1 bought a half century ago). Crypto, meanwhile, does not merely elude government regulation, it defies it.

This is worth keeping in mind as we watch the FTX scandal unfold. There are deep divisions in Congress regarding crypto. There are understandable public suspicions about the prospect of more financial regulation by a government that cannot regulate itself: surging past $30 trillion in debt, spending way beyond its means despite record-high tax revenues, and now attempting to corral the worst bout of inflation in 40 years that is caused, at least in part, by these irresponsible policies coupled with Fed mismanagement. (For a comprehensive explanation of our straits, you can’t do better than David Bahnsen.)

Under these circumstances, it is highly unlikely that Democrats could get a “Sarbanes–Oxley for crypto” bill enacted by a divided Congress. The Biden administration is thus doing what it does in various policy matters: relying on legal-enforcement action by the Justice Department and administrative agencies — here, the SEC and CFTC — to fill what it regards as the regulatory void. In the meantime, the administration and Democrats have been biding their time, waiting for some financial catastrophe that can be stoked into a groundswell of support for thoroughgoing crypto regulation.

In Bankman-Fried’s alleged FTX scam, they obviously perceive such an opportunity — a multibillion-dollar implosion, easily portrayed as one of those crises that should never be permitted to go to waste.

But here’s the thing: The schemes described in the Justice Department’s indictment and the SEC’s civil complaint against Sam Bankman-Fried reflect run-of-the-mill fraud — “old-fashioned embezzlement,” was the apt description offered by John Ray III, the new CEO brought in to clean up the FTX mess. Sure, the dollar amounts are prodigious, but it’s not like we’ve never seen even bigger numbers before — remember Enron, WorldCom, Bernie Madoff, and so on.

The FTX scandal arises out of the crypto sector, but it does not stem from the opaque nature of cryptocurrency. If what the government is alleging proves true, then you hardly need a Ph.D. in blockchain to grasp it: SBF tricked investors into trusting him with their funds, and then diverted them to his own use through his hedge fund, Alameda. To carry off the scheme, he used a series of internal accounting tricks to conceal what he was doing and how deeply in hock Alameda was to FTX customer funds. Finally, the clock struck midnight, as it inevitably does with Ponzi-type schemes. People grew suspicious, demanded their money back, and Bankman-Fried couldn’t pay them.

Crypto happened to be the context, but a scheme such as this could have arisen in any asset class. Investors could instead have been gulled into parting with their dollars, stock, fine art: You name it. Consequently, the FTX scandal should not be a clarion call for a suffocating degree of cryptocurrency regulation.

Fundamentally, FTX in many ways represents the antithesis of crypto. The business was a cryptocurrency exchange, which is to say: a middleman, brokering transactions between prospective customers and lenders, buyers and sellers. Yet a major feature of crypto is the absence of a middleman. Thanks to blockchain, willing parties can transact in confidence without intermediaries to vouch or facilitate. By contrast, to use the FTX exchange, customers surrendered custody of their digital assets: That’s what gave SBF the opportunity to steal them, as he is alleged to have done. To the contrary, the guideline for crypto aficionados is: Not your keys, not your coins. Parties to a transaction should not have to deposit with an intermediary the computer code that constitutes keys to their assets: The blockchain provides security.

Note that within just four weeks of the FTX collapse, the Justice Department, the SEC, and the CFTC have been able to bring daunting charges and civil claims that are more than adequate to ensure that SBF is aggressively prosecuted and, if found guilty, sentenced to a lengthy prison term in addition to punishing fines and forfeiture provisions. This strongly suggests that existing law is sufficient to address the kind of mainstream fraud that SBF is alleged to have committed. In fact, reports indicate that he was heedless of ordinary business compliance and bookkeeping protocols. Ignorance and recklessness are not issues unique to crypto. They are what you expect in standard financial-fraud cases.

There are good reasons for Congress to examine crypto, but it ought to do so in a deliberate, careful manner. What we have with FTX is a financial scandal, like those that have occurred before and will inevitably occur again. What we don’t have is a crisis requiring rash action that could do more harm than good, no matter how well-intentioned our progressive regulators may be.

Crafty_Dog

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POTH (NYT) US scrutinizes donations
« Reply #2375 on: December 18, 2022, 06:27:28 AM »


U.S. Scrutinizes Political Donations by Sam Bankman-Fried and Allies
Federal prosecutors appear to be focusing on possible wrongdoing by cryptocurrency executives, rather than by Democratic or Republican politicians. But the inquiries widen an explosive campaign finance scandal.

Give this article


Kenneth P. VogelKen Bensinger
By Kenneth P. Vogel and Ken Bensinger
Dec. 17, 2022
Sign Up for On Politics, for Times subscribers only.  A Times reader’s guide to the political news in Washington and across the nation. Try the On Politics newsletter for 4 weeks.
WASHINGTON — Federal prosecutors in Manhattan are seeking information from Democrats and Republicans about donations from the disgraced cryptocurrency entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried and two former executives at the companies he co-founded.

In the days after Mr. Bankman-Fried was arrested on Monday and charged with violations including a major campaign finance scheme, the prosecutors reached out to representatives for campaigns and committees that had received millions of dollars from Mr. Bankman-Fried, his colleagues and their companies.

A law firm representing some of the most important Democratic political organizations — including the party’s official campaign arms, its biggest super PACs and the campaigns of high-profile politicians such as Representative Hakeem Jeffries — received an email from a prosecutor in the United States attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York. The email sought information about donations from Mr. Bankman-Fried, his colleagues and companies, according to people familiar with the request, who insisted on anonymity to discuss an ongoing law enforcement matter.

The prosecutors have reached out to representatives of other Democratic campaigns that received money linked to the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, which Mr. Bankman-Fried co-founded, according to two other people familiar with the matter. Prosecutors are also investigating donations to Republican campaigns and committees by another FTX executive who was a top financier on the right, according to a person familiar with the situation.

So far, Mr. Bankman-Fried is the only executive to face charges. Since emerging as a leading political megadonor in the months before the 2020 election, he has donated nearly $45 million, primarily to Democratic campaigns and committees that are now scrambling to distance themselves.

More on Sam Bankman-Fried

Sam Bankman-Fried Is Expected to Agree to Extradition to the U.S.
The FTX founder, now in prison in the Bahamas, faces criminal charges that he engaged in widespread fraud since founding the cryptocurrency exchange in 2019.
Dec. 17, 2022
There has not been any suggestion that political campaigns and groups engaged in wrongdoing related to the donations they received. The Justice Department’s inquiries appear to be an effort to gather evidence against Mr. Bankman-Fried and other former FTX executives, rather than against their political beneficiaries.

But the prosecutors’ requests widen what has quickly become one of the biggest campaign finance scandals in years, as both Democrats and Republicans grapple with questions about their eagerness to tap into a stream of cash from a murky and largely unregulated industry that emerged suddenly as a powerful political player.

The fallout has been swift and is only growing, as lawmakers, operatives for political action committees and their lawyers try to minimize the damage.

Some politicians — including Mr. Jeffries, the incoming Democratic leader in the House, and Representative-elect Aaron Bean, a Republican from Florida — either returned donations linked to FTX or gave the money to charity after the company became embroiled in scandal. Other groups say they are setting the cash aside for possible restitution to victims of the alleged scheme.

What to Know About the Collapse of FTX
Card 1 of 5
What is FTX? FTX is a now bankrupt company that was one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges. It enabled customers to trade digital currencies for other digital currencies or traditional money; it also had a native cryptocurrency known as FTT. The company, based in the Bahamas, built its business on risky trading options that are not legal in the United States.

Who is Sam Bankman-Fried? He is the 30-year-old founder of FTX and the former chief executive of FTX. Once a golden boy of the crypto industry, he was a major donor to the Democratic Party and known for his commitment to effective altruism, a charitable movement that urges adherents to give away their wealth in efficient and logical ways.

How did FTX’s troubles begin? Last year, Changpeng Zhao, the chief executive of Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, sold the stake he held in FTX back to Mr. Bankman-Fried, receiving a number of FTT tokens in exchange. In November, Mr. Zhao said he would sell the tokens and expressed concerns about FTX’s financial stability. The move, which drove down the price of FTT, spooked investors.

What led to FTX's collapse? Mr. Zhao’s announcement drove down the price and spooked investors. Traders rushed to withdraw from FTX, causing the company to have a $8 billion shortfall. Binance, FTX’s main rival, offered a loan to save the company but later pulled out, forcing FTX to file for bankruptcy on Nov. 11.

Why was Mr. Bankman-Fried arrested? FTX’s collapse kicked off investigations by the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission focused on whether FTX improperly used customer funds to prop up Alameda Research, a crypto trading platform that Mr. Bankman-Fried had helped start. On Dec. 12, Mr. Bankman-Fried was arrested in the Bahamas for lying to investors and committing fraud. The day after, the S.E.C. also filed civil fraud charges.

Prosecutors said FTX was a “house of cards” through which Mr. Bankman-Fried and others diverted customer money to buy expensive real estate in the Bahamas, invest in other cryptocurrency firms, provide themselves with personal loans and make political contributions of tens of millions of dollars intended to influence policy decisions on cryptocurrency and other issues.

The indictment of Mr. Bankman-Fried accuses him of conspiring with unnamed others to violate campaign finance laws that prohibit corporate donations to candidates’ campaigns and bar donations “in the names of other persons,” commonly known as straw donations. He is also charged with wire fraud, money laundering and securities fraud related to his management of FTX and another company he co-founded, Alameda Research.

At a news conference on Tuesday, Damian Williams, the United States attorney for the Southern District of New York, called on “any person, entity or political campaign that has received stolen customer money” to “work with us to return that money to innocent victims.”

Federal Election Commission regulations require political campaigns and committees to give back donations that are later determined to be illegal, even if the funds have already been spent and new money needs to be raised to pay for the refunds.

The idea behind the law “is to essentially get tainted money out of the system, even when the committees that accepted it are not at fault,” said Sean J. Cooksey, an F.E.C. commissioner.

But that could be difficult for some political campaigns and committees, because the donations were among their biggest and because such groups typically spend almost all of their cash in the run-up to major elections.

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More revelations are expected as previously undisclosed donations linked to Mr. Bankman-Fried, FTX and Alameda are exposed. For instance, a Biden-allied nonprofit group called Future Forward USA Action, which is registered under a section of the tax code that does not require it to disclose its donors, received $1.65 million that was linked to FTX, according to a person familiar with the funding.

The group’s PAC arm, which is required to report its donors, previously disclosed that in 2020, it received $5 million from Mr. Bankman-Fried and $1 million from another former FTX executive, Nishad Singh, out of a total of more than $150 million raised ahead of that year’s election.

Critics of the outsize role of big money in politics, as well as skeptics of cryptocurrency, have seized on the donations as further evidence that the campaign finance regulatory landscape is riddled with loopholes that create what is essentially a pay-to-play system with only the veneer of transparency.

“It shows fundamental weakness in our campaign finance laws,” said Craig Holman, an official at the watchdog group Public Citizen who focuses on ethics, lobbying and campaign finance rules. “And on the receiving end, you’ve got candidates and officeholders who should have been suspicious of the sudden influx of funds from the crypto industry.”

Image
The logo of FTX in big black letters on the front of an arena building.
FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange Mr. Bankman-Fried co-founded, spent heavily on sports sponsorships, with the Miami Heat’s arena renamed the FTX Arena. Credit...Marco Bello/Reuters

The prosecutors are seeking information related to donations to dozens of campaigns and political committees, not just from Mr. Bankman-Fried but also from FTX and Alameda, as well as from Mr. Singh and Ryan Salame, another former FTX executive, according to the people familiar with the request.

The email was sent to the Elias Law Group, a firm started last year by one of the Democratic Party’s top lawyers, Marc E. Elias, that has quickly emerged as the leading political law firm on the left.

Mr. Elias’s firm did not respond to requests for comment.

The email asks for records that could be used to determine whether the FTX executives lied in their responses to disclaimers commonly featured on political committee websites. The disclaimers ask donors to attest that the money they are giving is their own, and that they are not being reimbursed by a corporation or another person, which would be illegal.

The FTX executives had given few donations before they burst onto the big-money political scene in the weeks before the 2020 election, as their company was expanding. Since then, Mr. Bankman-Fried’s donations went primarily to Democratic campaigns and committees, while Mr. Singh gave nearly $9.7 million, mostly to the party’s candidates and groups.

The Aftermath of FTX’s Downfall
The sudden collapse of the crypto exchange has left the industry stunned.
A Spectacular Rise and Fall: Who is Sam Bankman-Fried and how did he become the face of crypto? The Daily charted the spectacular rise and fall of the man behind FTX.
How FTX Operated: FTX called itself an exchange. But it was vastly different from stock exchanges, which are highly regulated and barred from engaging in many of the activities that the crypto company pursued.
Parental Bonds: Mr. Bankman-Fried’s mother and father, who teach at Stanford Law School, are under scrutiny for their connections to their son’s crypto business.
Mr. Salame donated $24 million, primarily to Republican candidates and committees.

Even as a group linked to Mr. Salame promoted him as a “budding Republican megadonor” this year, he told an activist who raised money from the cryptocurrency industry that he was not particularly interested in politics and suggested that his donations had been encouraged by others at FTX, the activist said.

Other people who worked with FTX executives had privately expressed concern in an encrypted group chat, images of which were reviewed by The New York Times, about whether donations from Mr. Bankman-Fried and Mr. Singh were made in compliance with campaign finance rules.

Mr. Salame and his lawyer did not respond to requests for comment. Neither did Mr. Singh nor a spokesman for Mr. Bankman-Fried.

Groups funded by Mr. Bankman-Fried or his associates donated to at least one nonprofit organization focused on reducing the role of money in politics and increasing its transparency. That group, the Campaign Legal Center, received a total of $2.5 million last year from groups linked to Mr. Bankman-Fried. The center’s board voted on Friday to put the money into a separate account “until instructions are received from bankruptcy courts,” Brendan R. Quinn, a spokesman for the center, said in a statement.

Mr. Quinn said the center had accepted the funding “after careful vetting,” including conferring with other nonprofit organizations that “vouched for his apparent legitimacy at the time,” but he added that the allegations against Mr. Bankman-Fried “betray C.L.C.’s mission.”

Image
The Justice Department building seen on a clear, sunny day.
Mr. Bankman-Fried is the only FTX executive who has been charged, but federal prosecutors have suggested that more indictments are likely.Credit...T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York Times

The political groups represented by Mr. Elias’s firm that received funding from FTX executives include the Democratic National Committee, which received hundreds of thousands of dollars from Mr. Bankman-Fried; the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which received $250,000 from him; and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which received more than $100,000 from him and Mr. Singh.

The D.N.C. and D.S.C.C. said in separate statements that they were setting aside the money and intended to return it “as soon as we receive proper direction in the legal proceedings.”

Returning the money could be easier said than done for some of the groups that received larger donations from FTX officials. For instance, House Majority PAC, a leading super PAC that supports Democratic House candidates and is represented by the Elias Law Group, received $6 million from Mr. Bankman-Fried, but the group ended last month with less than $500,000 in the bank.

In a statement, the group, which spent upward of $180 million on this year’s elections, said it was “watching and waiting for guidance from the government in the ongoing legal proceedings, and maintains our fullest commitment to complying with the law.”

Precedent for the current campaign finance controversy are limited.

A much smaller-scale example occurred when, from 2002 to 2014, the company Cancer Treatment Centers of America reimbursed its executives for political contributions totaling about $700,000 to more than 30 campaigns. Even though the F.E.C. found no evidence that the recipient committees knew of the scheme, they were nonetheless required to give up the money after the company acknowledged the violations in 2017 and paid a civil penalty of $288,000. It took several years for all the committees that received the illegal cash to get rid of it.

Karl J. Sandstrom, a former member of the F.E.C., said the FTX case had the potential to be “the largest corporate conduit case we have had.”

Mr. Sandstrom, who advises Democratic campaigns and committees for the law firm Perkins Coie, where Mr. Elias was previously a partner, said he was advising clients to put money in escrow matching the amounts they received from Mr. Bankman-Fried.

Mr. Sandstrom said he had not received any inquiries from the Justice Department “yet.”

Kenneth P. Vogel reported from Washington, and Ken Bensinger from Los Angeles.

Ken Vogel covers the confluence of money, politics and influence from Washington. He is also the author of “Big Money: 2.5 Billion Dollars, One Suspicious Vehicle, and a Pimp — on the Trail of the Ultra-Rich Hijacking American Politics.” @kenvogel • Facebook

Ken Bensinger is a Los Angeles-based politics reporter, covering right-wing media. He is the author of “Red Card: How the U.S. Blew The Whistle On The World’s Biggest Sports Scandal.” @kenbensinger

A version of this article appears in print on Dec. 18, 2022, Section A, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: U.S. Scrutinizes Political Money Linked to FTX. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

Crafty_Dog

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ya

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Crafty_Dog

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GPF: Russia reduces use of Western Currencies
« Reply #2378 on: December 30, 2022, 08:00:21 AM »
December 30, 2022
View On Website
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Daily Memo: Russia Reduces Use of Western Currencies
Its reserve fund will increasingly rely on Chinese yuan and gold.
By: Geopolitical Futures

Russian finances. Russia’s Finance Ministry announced that it is doubling the maximum share of Chinese yuan and gold that can be held in the National Wealth Fund to 60 percent and 40 percent, respectively. It also reset its accounts in British pounds and Japanese yen to zero. Previously, they could account for up to 5 percent and 4.7 percent of the fund, respectively. In addition, NWF resources can no longer be used to purchase assets denominated in U.S. dollars. The ministry said the changes were made to reduce the share of currencies of “unfriendly states.”

ya

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ccp

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is the fix in for SBF ?
« Reply #2380 on: January 05, 2023, 12:38:09 PM »
https://republicbrief.com/the-fix-is-in-sam-bankman-fried-has-a-clinton-judge-soros-related-biden-appointed-prosecutor-and-his-case-is-in-the-corrupt-sdny/

if only we had conservative prosecutors who were hell bent on implication crats like Dems would do to Trump and anyone who supported him.


Crafty_Dog

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RANE: Will China's efforts to go int'l with the Yuan succeed?
« Reply #2381 on: January 05, 2023, 06:20:15 PM »
Will China's Efforts to Internationalize the Yuan Succeed?
Jan 5, 2023 | 22:47 GMT


China's push to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar by internationalizing the yuan will only make limited progress, leaving the country vulnerable to U.S. financial sanctions and economic policies for the foreseeable future. For more than a decade, Beijing has sought to turn the yuan into a fully-fledged international currency in the hopes of reducing China's sensitivity to U.S. financial and economic volatility as well as potential U.S. sanctions. This has included setting up bilateral swap lines and multilateral swap agreements with more than 30 countries. Other measures China has taken to internationalize its currency include the provision of official bilateral yuan financing in the context of Beijing's Belt Road Initiative, the creation of a small offshore yuan market, a yuan-based payments system, (limited) capital account liberalization, the creation of a yuan-based payments system, and the introduction of a central bank digital currency called the "e-yuan." China also made diplomatic efforts to have the yuan included in the International Monetary Fund's special drawing rights currency basket.

In practical terms, the process of currency internationalization involves measures to increase the use of a country's currency for international current (trade) and capital account (financial) transactions.

China has established more than 30 bilateral yuan swap lines, and it has facilitated access to its domestic financial markets for foreign official investors. (The U.S. Federal Reserve, by comparison, maintains swap lines with the systemically important countries in the Group of 10, which include Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom).
China also continues to pursue policies to promote the use of the yuan through the multilateral Renminbi Liquidity Arrangement, as well as an upgrade to the Chiang Mai initiative of the late 1990s (which now allows for local currency as opposed to dollar swaps among participating central banks).

By expanding the yuan's use as an international currency, China is hoping to reduce its dependence on the dollar as well as its vulnerability to financial sanctions and U.S. economic policies. The global economic and financial system is centered on the dollar, and China (along with virtually every other country in the world) significantly relies on the U.S. currency to engage in international trade and capital transactions. This enables Washington to impose significant economic costs on companies and even countries by restricting their ability to use the dollar. U.S. economic (and especially monetary) policy also has an outsized impact on global financial conditions due to the dollar's importance as an international currency. Dependence on the dollar thus makes China not only vulnerable to U.S. financial sanctions, but sensitive to American macroeconomic policies, such as rapid monetary tightening and precipitous dollar appreciation. The global financial fallout from Washington's Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia over the past year has only highlighted this risk, which will drive Beijing to intensify its efforts to internationalize the yuan, with the aim of mitigating the threat of secondary sanctions by sidestepping the use of the dollar in global trade transactions.

The U.S. dollar is involved in 90% of all global foreign-exchange transactions and also accounts for 60% of all (allocated) foreign-exchange reserves. The Chinese yuan, by contrast, is involved in less than 5% of global foreign-exchange transactions and accounts for only 3% of foreign exchange reserves.

Using currencies in international foreign-exchange transactions that are not the traditional “hard currencies” (e.g. the dollar, the euro or the Japanese yen), if possible at all, is less efficient and more costly. This suggests that China's push to reduce its dollar dependence will be increasingly driven by a desire to reduce its vulnerability to U.S. financial sanctions.

Following the onset of the Ukraine war in February, the United States (and its allies) demonstrated their readiness to use financial sanctions to punish Russia through asset freezes and dollar sanctions.

But despite Beijing's efforts, the yuan will ultimately fail to rival the dollar or the euro in international transactions (with the possible exception of intra-Asian trade) for several more decades. China meets many of the conditions necessary for the yuan to become a prominent international currency, including economic size, extensive foreign trade, large yuan-denominated financial assets and military might. But the yuan is not freely convertible, China's domestic capital markets are underdeveloped, and the currency's exchange rate is tightly managed by the Chinese government. Crucially, many foreign investors are wary of the rule of law and the risk of government intervention. Even if China makes progress with respect to domestic capital markets reform and exchange rate flexibility, Beijing will remain loath to offer foreigners unfettered access to domestic capital markets for fear of losing control over its economy and destabilizing its financial system. The yuan may come to play a greater role in regional trade in East and Southeast Asia; the share of yuan assets held by foreign central banks may also increase. But this is not going to transform the Chinese currency into a full-fledged reserve currency capable of rivaling the dollar or the euro in the short (or even medium) term, which would require the extensive use of the yuan for capital account transactions.


The United States accounts for 20-25% of global GDP and China for 18%.

The U.S. capital account is open, while China's currency convertibility remains very limited.

Around 30% of U.S. treasuries are held by non-residents. Foreign holdings of Chinese government bonds account for less than 10% of the total.

The dollar accounts for almost 100% of export invoicing in the Americas, 70% in Europe, 25% in Asia-Pacific and 80% in the rest of the world. (Non-dollar, non-euro currencies currently account for about 20% of Asia-Pacific trade, but these figures include the Japanese yen.)
Beijing has remained reluctant to liberalize broader currency convertibility following the market instability China experienced in 2015-16.
China will thus continue to find it difficult to insulate itself from dollar-related financial volatility and U.S. sanctions, as the self-reinforcing dynamics of geopolitical and economic alliances — along with the prevalence of network effects and incumbency advantages — limit the yuan's international role and maintain the dollar's global dominance. The U.S. dollar will remain the world's dominant international currency, barring tail events such as a U.S. debt default or the breakup of the euro area. This — combined with the only limited progress Beijing will make in terms of internationalizing the yuan — will enable the United States to keep imposing or threatening to impose significant economic costs on other parties, including Chinese companies. In response, Chinese authorities will continue to push for the yuan to play a greater role in regional trade by promoting greater local currency settlement between the yuan and other regional currencies. But the yuan's limited convertibility will continue to hamper the more extensive use of the Chinese currency. Yuan foreign-exchange transactions will also remain characterized by higher costs, lower liquidity and funding stability, as well as more limited hedging opportunities, compared with dollar transactions. The e-yuan may eventually make yuan transactions cheaper, assuming Chinese authorities approve the digital currency for large-scale cross-border transactions. But the e-yuan won't be a game-changer for China in terms of overcoming network effects and the incumbency advantages of the dollar, as cheaper yuan transactions would do little to ease concerns about the rule of law, geopolitical competition, and limited currency convertibility. Finally, Washington is also closely monitoring the e-yuan and, in the unlikely event that its internationalization begins to weaken the role of the U.S. dollar, will accelerate efforts to issue a digital dollar, which will preserve dollar dominance.

The U.S. treasury market remains the largest and most liquid pool of safe assets, which form the bedrock of the international financial system, and the dollar is freely convertible. The size of China's domestic government debt market is expanding rapidly, which could theoretically accelerate the yuan's international use, but liquidity remains low and capital account restrictions remain significant. This will hamper the availability of yuan necessary for Chinese trade partners to finance bilateral trade deficits with China, thus further impeding the yuan's greater role in international trade.

ya

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Another Zoltan...china may be succeeding. Sanctioning Russia's reserves was the final nail in the US $ coffin. The $ will still be around for a while, but that decision by the Biden govt has fast tracked the $'s demise.

https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=5h3r-WTBd-V&t=-3f2t7fyeg6tz2ndtomzsde0j0

DougMacG

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ya:  "Sanctioning Russia's reserves was the final nail in the US $ coffin."

  - As suggested, there are other nails in the coffin.  Destroying the US economy and running up our debt are the big ones, in my view.

If the US was running it's economy at full potential with low taxes, rightsized regulations, controlled spending, balanced budgets, a fully powered grid and entrepreneurial capitalism running wild, (I believe) we could tell Russia to go to hell and still have the envied currency of the world.

Conversely, turning our own currency into play money and pursuing stagnation ands worse, why wouldn't BRICS etc, especially among themselves, turn to something else.
------------------------------------
"If accepted, the new proposed BRICS members would create an entity with a GDP 30% larger than the United States, over 50% of the global population and in control of 60% of global gas reserves."
https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2022/11/09/the-new-candidate-countries-for-brics-expansion/
« Last Edit: January 07, 2023, 03:41:42 PM by DougMacG »


ya

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Crafty_Dog

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Seems like BTC and ETH are starting to move up?

Gold, which as at 1600 is now at 1900.

Silver, which was in the 18s is now at 23?

ccp

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Seems like BTC and ETH are starting to move up?   :-o!

DougMacG

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Seems like BTC and ETH are starting to move up?   :-o!

From the looks of it, the post election bottom held - survived the FTX news as well.  Should have known that was the bottom.  Maybe should have bought in around 17k around the first of the year - but I didn't.

ya

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Bollywood music is suitable for today
https://twitter.com/i/status/1614085624004481024

ya

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Popcorn time



ya

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Myrmikan
« Reply #2392 on: January 14, 2023, 09:27:52 AM »
Good read, last few pages have the meat. TL;DR Fed printer go brrr

https://www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Research_2023_01_13.pdf
« Last Edit: January 14, 2023, 10:33:07 AM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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Note the last paragraph:

"Rhetoric from Powell and other Fed governors is: higher yields for longer to slay
inflation. The bond market does not believe it. Neither does gold, which has spiked from
$1,618/oz on September 28 to above $1,900/oz currently. This jump in price has evoked
surprisingly little commentary, suggesting we are early in the move. The miners have
bounced well off the bottom, but not to the extent that the move in gold would warrant,
again suggesting we are early in the move. The gold market spent two years shaking out
those late to the party in 2020. Now it is time for the next leg higher"

and my post here yesterday:

"Seems like BTC and ETH are starting to move up?"

"Gold, which as at 1600 is now at 1900."

"Silver, which was in the 18s is now at 23?"

Ask ourselves, what percentages are the movements off the bottom?




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GBTC
« Reply #2394 on: January 14, 2023, 11:24:21 AM »

Crafty_Dog

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BTC up 4+% this morning.

Looks like our Yash has been extremely prescient!

Gratitude for helping me keep my courage up!

 

ya

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Re: GBTC
« Reply #2397 on: January 16, 2023, 07:20:40 AM »
WTF?

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gbtc

There are rumors, that the fund could be dismantled, i.e. at the price of BTC, so the premiums will reduce. The parent company made some bad financial decisions.

Crafty_Dog

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Any chance you could simply that further.

For the record, I stupidly held on this for FAR too long, and sold at below where it is at the moment.  UGH.

ya

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Barry Silbert owns the parent company DCG, which owns companies like Genesis and Grayscale BTF trust. Genesis is in financial trouble and they could potentially get whole, if they are allowed to dismantle the Grayscale BTF trust by converting their holdings to BTC. Barry Silbert is also trying to convert the Grayscale trust to an ETF and has sued the SEC.

Ofcourse, the simplest explanation is that BTC has gone from 16.5 K to 21K and so the premiums decreased.