Author Topic: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold  (Read 692382 times)

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3250 on: November 11, 2024, 07:04:53 AM »
Can't see the last post-- not sure why this happens for me sometimes with your posts YA.

Anyway, great bulk of my play is in ETFs, so if my thinking is correct, if I try jumping out and back in, I am peeing into the wind by triggering taxes whenever I jump out.

The long term play seems to have big upside potential.

ccp

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3251 on: November 11, 2024, 07:14:44 AM »
"The long term play seems to have big upside potential."

Same for me.

I am reading talk Trump has had change of heart with BTC and believes it could be another store of wealth for the US .

Anyone hear the same.



Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3252 on: November 11, 2024, 07:18:52 AM »
See posts 3244 and 3245 in this thread.

ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3253 on: November 11, 2024, 05:30:19 PM »
90 K tonight would be fine.

ccp

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Summers : inflation "not tamed" and Powell flips flopping
« Reply #3254 on: November 14, 2024, 01:55:24 PM »
Powell on Nov 7 we need to continue rate cuts:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/yourmoney/article-14080321/liberal-economist-larry-summers-warning-inflation-trump-election.html

Summers on Nov 13 inflation not tamed:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/yourmoney/article-14080321/liberal-economist-larry-summers-warning-inflation-trump-election.html

Powell on Nov 14 we need to go slow with rate cuts:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-certainly-intends-to-stay-at-fed-until-chairmanship-ends-200004615.html

So now if inflation goes up guess who gets the blame?
Yet Powell rides through as though he is wearing teflon.

ya

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BTC Strategic Reserve can be established by EO
« Reply #3255 on: November 15, 2024, 04:53:31 AM »
Trump can establish the BTC Strat Reserve by executive order.
https://www.btcpolicy.org/articles/can-trump-order-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve
« Last Edit: November 15, 2024, 11:07:28 AM by Crafty_Dog »

ccp

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3256 on: November 15, 2024, 06:46:58 AM »
Fort Knox  AND

"Fort" BTC

Someone told me talk of no capital gains on BTC at all even after selling

but frankly I don't approve of that with a 36 trill debt.

If it did happen BTC to the moon.

ya

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Senate Bill BTC Strategic Reserve
« Reply #3257 on: November 16, 2024, 05:58:37 AM »
What we should be watching


Senate bill S.4912 re: the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (aka path to a million$)
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/4912/text
« Last Edit: November 17, 2024, 05:56:35 AM by Crafty_Dog »

Body-by-Guinness

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China’s Bond Market Play
« Reply #3258 on: November 20, 2024, 09:43:22 PM »
My monetary policy game isn’t deep enough to assess the scenario shown below, but it sounds like the type of dilemma China likes to create, and outcomes that bear watching:

The story around China issuing USD-denominated sovereign bonds in Saudi Arabia is generating an enormous amount of buzz in China, and could potentially be immensely important.

I strongly suspect it's a message to the upcoming Trump administration.

Let me explain what seems to be going on.

On the face of it, it's not a major story: China issued $2 billion in USD-denominated sovereign bonds in Saudi Arabia, which means that investors lent USD to the Chinese government that they promised to pay back. That's what a bond is. So far, relatively boring.

The first somewhat interesting aspect of it is that the bonds were oversubscribed by almost 20x (meaning $40+ billion in demand for $2 billion worth of bonds), which is far more demand than usual for USD sovereign bonds. Typically US Treasury auctions see oversubscription rate between 2x to 3x so there obviously seems to be very strong market appeal for China's dollar-denominated debt.

The second interesting aspect is that the interest rate on the bonds was remarkably close to US Treasury rates (just 1-3 basis points higher, i.e. 0.01-0.03%), which means that China is now able to borrow money - in US dollars (!) - at virtually the same rate as the US government itself. That's the case for no other country in the world. As a benchmark, countries with the highest credit ratings (AAA) typically pay at least 10-20 basis points over US Treasuries in the rare instances when they issue USD bonds.

The third interesting aspect is the venue itself for this bond sale: Saudi Arabia. This is unusual since sovereign bonds are typically issued in major financial centers, not in Riyadh. The choice of Saudi Arabia and the fact that the Saudis agreed to this is particularly significant given its historical role in the global dollar system, the so-called 'petrodollar' system which I don't need to explain... By issuing dollar bonds in Saudi Arabia that compete directly with US Treasuries, and getting essentially the same interest rate, China is demonstrating it can operate as an alternative manager of dollar liquidity right in the heart of the petrodollar system. For Saudi Arabia, which holds hundreds of billions in dollar reserves, this creates a new option for investing their dollars: they can invest it with the Chinese government instead of the US government.

Ok, that's all interesting but still not the main reason why Chinese social media is abuzz. The reason why is because they postulate that this is trial round by China to demonstrate to the US that they can effectively use their own currency against them, with potentially dramatic consequences.

How?

First of all, think it through, imagine if China scales this up and instead of issuing $2 billion worth of bonds, they start issuing 10s or 100s of billions worth of it.

What this means for the US is that China would effectively be competing with the US Treasury in the global dollar market. Instead of countries like Saudi Arabia automatically recycling their dollars into US Treasury bonds, they could put them into Chinese dollar bonds that pay the same rate.

This would create a parallel dollar system where China, not the US, controls part of the flow of dollars. The US would still print the dollars, but China would increasingly manage where they go. Imagine that...

Another critical aspect is that every dollar that goes into Chinese bonds instead of US Treasuries is one less dollar helping to finance US government spending. At a time when the US is running massive deficits and needs to constantly sell Treasury bonds to fund itself, having China emerge as a competing dollar bond issuer that can match Treasury rates could pose immense financing problems for the US government. It could effectively end the US's so-called “exorbitant privilege”.

But wait, you might ask yourself, what's the point of China having so many dollars? Don't they transfer the problem to themselves: they too need to find a place to invest all these dollars, don't they?

You'd be right, the last thing China needs is more US dollars: in 2023 it ran a US dollar trade surplus of $823.2 billion, and for 2024, it's expected to be $940 billion. China is already absolutely awash with dollars.

But that's where the beauty of the Belt & Road Initiative comes in. Out of the 193 countries in the world, 152 of these countries are part of the BRI. And a very common characteristic many of these countries have is: they owe debt in USD, to the US government or other Western lenders.

This is where China's strategy could become truly clever. China could use its US dollars to help Belt & Road countries pay off their dollar debts to Western lenders. But here's the key: in exchange for helping these countries clear their dollar debts, China could arrange to be repaid in yuan, or in strategic resources, or through other bilateral arrangements.

This would create a triple win for China: they get rid of their excess dollars, they help their partner countries escape dollar dependency, and they deepen these countries' economic integration with China instead of the US.

For BRI countries, this is attractive because they can escape the trap of dollar-denominated debt (and the threat of US financial sanctions) and get likely better conditions with China, which will help their development.

In effect this would China placing itself as an intermediary at the heart of the dollar system, where the dollars still eventually make their way back to the US - just through a path that builds Chinese rather than American influence and progressively undermines the US's ability to finance itself (with all the consequences this has on inflation, etc.).

At this stage you probably tell yourself "come on, there's no way China can do that, the US government surely has tools at its disposal to prevent this stuff". And the answer, surprisingly, is that there is actually little the U.S. can do that doesn't undermine them in some shape or form.

The most obvious response would be to threaten sanctions against countries - like Saudi Arabia - or institutions that buy Chinese dollar bonds. But this would further demonstrate that dollar assets aren't actually safe from US political interference, further encouraging countries to diversify, compounding the problem. The dollar's strength partly comes from network effects - everyone uses it because everyone else uses it - but as we've seen with Russia sanctions create a coordinating moment for countries to move away together, weakening these network effects.

Another option would be for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to make US Treasuries more attractive. But this would be self-defeating: it would increase the US government's own borrowing costs at a time when they're already struggling with massive deficits, potentially triggering a recession. And China, getting similar rates as the US, could simply match any rate increase.

The US could also go for the "nuclear option" of restricting China's ability to clear dollar transactions but this would effectively immediately fragment the global financial system, undermining the dollar's role as the global reserve currency - exactly what the US wants to avoid. And with China being the most important trading partner of the immense majority of the world's countries, nothing is less sure that the U.S. would win at this game...

In short this seems to be like some sort of Tai Chi 'four ounces moving a thousand pounds' (四兩撥千斤) move by China, using minimal force to redirect the dollar's strength in a way that benefits China.

Like I wrote at the beginning however, at this stage this is most likely just a message by China to the upcoming Trump administration: "we can do this so maybe think very carefully about all the nasty things you have in mind for us..." The beauty of this move is how strategically elegant it is: it costs China almost nothing to demonstrate, but forces Washington to contemplate some very uncomfortable possibilities.

https://x.com/rnaudbertrand/status/1859446480198828360?s=61

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3259 on: November 21, 2024, 07:05:52 AM »
WHOA  :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o

DougMacG

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Bitcoin 100k?
« Reply #3260 on: November 21, 2024, 10:05:04 AM »
Rounds to 98k right now.

Some people, not me, were proven right.

I know of one young man who bought a lot of it real early on, lived frugally on a big salary and put everything in it for accumulation.

My friends, his parents, said some time ago he might sell half his holdings at 100k and, a) be an instant multi, multi millionaire, and b) still hold a major position.

Nice predicament to be in.

Body-by-Guinness

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Re: Bitcoin 100k?
« Reply #3261 on: November 21, 2024, 10:46:19 AM »
Rounds to 98k right now.

Some people, not me, were proven right.

I know of one young man who bought a lot of it real early on, lived frugally on a big salary and put everything in it for accumulation.

My friends, his parents, said some time ago he might sell half his holdings at 100k and, a) be an instant multi, multi millionaire, and b) still hold a major position.

Nice predicament to be in.

My son did something similar. He’s taking his second year in the last five off work to travel the world.

ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3262 on: November 22, 2024, 03:54:43 AM »
Guys have a plan to exit out, if you are holding BTC.
- Plan ahead, it could get crazy, if BTC makes a parabolic move.
- If your age and circumstances allow, always keep some coins, dont sell everything. These will help fight inflation.

Keep in mind two big events that may occur.
1. Trump establishes the BTC Strategic Reserve. If so,
2. Every country will have to do that.
3. Were this to pass, you need to have some coins to benefit from the once in a life time opportunity.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3263 on: November 22, 2024, 09:09:39 AM »
I don't understand.   Why would we want to get out?

For ETF holdings getting out would be an actualization event triggering taxes, , , ,

ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3264 on: November 23, 2024, 05:48:04 AM »
Yes, its a taxable event. The ideal holding period is 10 + years, or decades. However, at some point one must take profits, if the intent is to retire or use the gains. All I am saying is that for those who plan to take profits next year, have a plan and dont make any emotional moves. This thinking is based on the current 4 year cycles where BTC peaks and then goes into a bear market, followed by 3 up years (and we are coming to the 3rd up year in 2025). The 4 year model of supply shock is expected to break down, since it was based on a shrinking of the mining reward every 4 years, the current mining reward is only 450 BTC/day, a small amount, so its effect will be negligible going forward and from the next cycle (2028), when it shrinks to 225/day. The ETF's on somedays are buying 5000 BTC/day, so I think the reward no longer plays a big role.

All of this could change, if Trump establishes the Strategic BTC Reserve (SBR) which he has promised and his Treasury secretary supports. Several states such as TX, PA have their own bills cooking to establish the strategic reserve. If the SBR is established, then the above 4 yr cycle will not hold, and BTC goes on a pathway to a Million over the next couple of years or less. Which is why I also said, dont sell everything.

P.S. The above is my current thinking, but I do not have a crystal ball, so please do your own research  :-)



« Last Edit: November 24, 2024, 06:30:42 PM by ya »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3265 on: November 23, 2024, 09:19:15 AM »
THANK YOU.

DougMacG

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Monetary Policy, The Yellen Debt Trap
« Reply #3266 on: November 24, 2024, 07:10:18 AM »
"Despite her gold-plated résumé, Ivy League degrees, and time served as Fed Chair..."  despite all that I have pointed out her being a partisan political hack in these positions.  But it's far worse than that.

https://nypost.com/2024/11/23/business/janet-yellen-exiting-office-leaving-mess-behind-for-trump-team/
« Last Edit: November 24, 2024, 07:37:31 AM by DougMacG »

ccp

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suddenly debt headlines will be paraded all over the airwaves
« Reply #3267 on: November 24, 2024, 08:42:21 AM »
ignored by MSM during Dem administrations

this will be highlighted during Trump yrs :

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-rising-price-of-paying-the-national-debt-is-a-risk-for-trump-s-promises-on-growth-and-inflation/ar-AA1uEOfJ?ocid=msedgntphdr&cvid=336b7395cb57468ee4b0b3503f77d828&ei=23

oh, now it is a problem    :roll:

how many decades have gone by that we on this board have been pissed about the nat debt?

why didn't they listen to us?

ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3268 on: November 26, 2024, 04:23:47 AM »

Crafty_Dog

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Decrypto
« Reply #3269 on: November 28, 2024, 08:12:12 AM »

History says: Bitcoin to $740,000
Pantera Capital has run the numbers using historical data and says Bitcoin could soar past $700,000 before President-elect Donald Trump leaves office.

    
Stacy Elliott

    
share on twitter
    
    

📝 What you need to know
Everyone has eyes for Bitcoin going to six figures, but Pantera Capital Management is looking at ones other than $100,000.

The firm’s CEO says BTC will make it past $700,000 before April 2028 based on historical trends and the reelection of the very pro-crypto Donald Trump.

“Even after 11 years, Bitcoin is still squeezing up like a watermelon seed,” Pantera CEO Dan Morehead wrote. “Blockchain’s 15-year regulatory headwinds are now turning into tailwinds.”


ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3271 on: December 01, 2024, 05:18:34 AM »
Friendly reminder


Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3272 on: December 01, 2024, 06:40:39 AM »
I saw that Trump made a very aggressive statement to the BRIC countries in defense of the dollar.

We here have been dialed in on the accumulating threats to the dollar so it is good to see Trump showing awareness front and center.   Perhaps the Strategic BTC Reserve is part of his strategy?   

YA, what are you seeing here?

ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3273 on: December 01, 2024, 07:10:06 PM »
Trump is just bloviating against China, Trump being Trump. As I said a while ago, there is no BRICS currency to replace the $ in the near future. They have talked about having a means to trade amongst themselves using their own currency and settling any balances in gold.

Putin has said, all this is happening because the US weaponized the $ against Russia by kicking them out of SWIFT. As a result China created its own system and trading in local currencies started. I expect in 2025, Trump will lift the currency sanctions against Russia because it hurts the reputation of the US $.

The US will create a BTC strategic reserve, think of it as digital gold, just like we have gold and oil as strategic reserves. BTC  might save the $. Already stablecoins such as tether are becoming huge buyers of treasuries, in effect replacing the lack of demand from China. BTC will become the store of value currency like gold, while $ will remain the preferred currency for payments. Just like gold used to back the $, BTC could end up backing the $. Thats the purpose of the BTC strat.reserve.

ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3274 on: December 02, 2024, 04:09:38 AM »
In the meantime, the Indian Rupee.


Crafty_Dog

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3275 on: December 02, 2024, 07:49:45 AM »
Thank you YA.

Crafty_Dog

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Decrypto
« Reply #3276 on: December 03, 2024, 06:49:52 PM »


Coinbase's revenge 🗡
The crypto exchange has vowed to sever ties with firms that hire former SEC officials who took part in "anti-crypto" campaigns

    
Stephen Graves


📝 What you need to know
Coinbase has severed ties with law firms employing former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officials, the crypto exchange’s CEO Brian Armstrong revealed.

Armstrong accused the SEC of having conducted a campaign to “unlawfully kill” the crypto industry, and vowed that Coinbase would “no longer be a client” of law firms that hired those he deemed responsible.

He singled out global law firm Milbank as having “messed up” after hiring Gurbir Grewal, the former head of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement, as a partner.

Armstrong has been vocal about the outgoing Biden administration’s stance on crypto in recent days, accusing it of “unethical and un-American” conduct over claims that tech firms, including crypto companies, were “debanked” during Biden’s term in office.

ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3277 on: December 04, 2024, 05:04:16 AM »
Flows are still accelerating




Crafty_Dog

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Decrypto: Waiting sell orders?
« Reply #3280 on: December 04, 2024, 12:11:18 PM »
second

What you need to know
Sure, social media is littered with investors claiming to have diamond hands and proudly proclaiming to HODL their Bitcoin.

But there’s no ignoring that more than $200 million worth of BTC flowed onto exchanges in the past day and there’s a mounting pile of sell orders waiting to be executed. Paper hands, much?

The good news is that the impending volatility hasn’t dimmed the outlook for altcoins. In the past day alone, TRON and BNB have set new all-time highs. And Monero has climbed to a 2-year high.

ya

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BTC headed to be bigger than gold?
« Reply #3281 on: December 06, 2024, 04:27:18 AM »
BTC is larger than Facebook, Silver. Soon it overtakes Google, the race is to become the top dog and beat Gold. If Trump creates the SBR, this could happen quickly.

« Last Edit: December 06, 2024, 04:58:17 AM by Crafty_Dog »

ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3282 on: December 07, 2024, 06:16:18 AM »
Enjoy some hopium


ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3283 on: December 07, 2024, 07:56:10 AM »
This is huge, the US Treasury calling BTC as digital gold, see slide 108 in pdf. I have discussed the use of Tether as a demand source for US Treasuries, and the tokenization of US Treasuries is also coming.

https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/CombinedChargesforArchivesQ42024.pdf
« Last Edit: December 07, 2024, 08:25:07 AM by ya »

ya

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3284 on: December 10, 2024, 04:08:25 AM »
Should we take this guy seriously ?

https://x.com/i/status/1866447233237000610

Crafty_Dog

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Decrypt
« Reply #3285 on: December 10, 2024, 07:35:46 AM »
From riches to rekt 📉
For the second time since Bitcoin broke the $100K milestone, crypto prices took a sudden dive, with Dogecoin and XRP both down at least 10%.
    
    
📝 What you need to know
Bitcoin got off to a solid start early Monday, climbing back above the $100,000 price point following an up-and-down few days after first claiming the milestone last week. But it didn’t last for long, and by about 4pm ET, BTC had briefly plunged below $95,000, per CoinGecko, causing bloodshed across the crypto markets.

While Bitcoin has rebounded to about $97,000 as of this writing, major altcoins are seeing bigger percentage dips, with XRP down 13%, Dogecoin dipping 11%, and Solana and Ethereum both shedding about 8% of their respective value.

Liquidations have skyrocketed as a result, with over $800 million worth of positions—nearly all longs—rekt in a single hour, per data from CoinGlass, pushing the 24-hour tally above $1.5 billion across all crypto assets

===============

https://decrypt.co/295623/el-salvador-weaken-bitcoin-law-imf-report

« Last Edit: December 10, 2024, 07:42:40 AM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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How crypto money changed politics
« Reply #3286 on: December 12, 2024, 05:35:27 AM »
https://decrypt.co/295639/2024-story-of-the-year-crypto-money-politics

Decrypt’s 2024 Story of the Year: How Crypto Money Changed American Politics
This year, a handful of crypto executives revolutionized how corporations spend on elections. The effects of their triumph could extend well beyond crypto.
By Sander Lutz

Dec 11, 2024

14 min read




In brief
Crypto lobbying efforts led by Coinbase, Ripple, and Andreessen Horowitz changed the political landscape in 2024.
The plan worked, but it also set a risky precedent.

The story of how it happened, and what it means for crypto and beyond, is Decrypt's 2024 Story of the Year.
It was December 2022, FTX had just collapsed into a $32 billion dollar cloud of vapor, Sam Bankman-Fried was adjusting to life in the sick bay of a Bahamian prison, and Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad was feeling cautiously optimistic.

Shirzad was a battle-tested D.C. insider with decades of experience navigating the inner sanctums of Congress and the White House. As the steward of Coinbase’s reputation on Capitol Hill, there was certainly plenty about the implosion of fellow crypto exchange FTX to cause him concern—but at the time, Shirzad’s instincts led him to believe the scandal could be productive.

“It seemed like, for all the terrible aspects of the FTX debacle, it would have engendered something we thought was long overdue: a clear federal framework around the trading of crypto assets,” Shirzad told Decrypt.

Misconduct in other industries had been known to bring about legislative reform in Washington. Companies like Coinbase were itching for a crypto regulatory framework, and would have welcomed new laws designed to root out future FTXs and reward their compliant competitors.

We were dealing with a political problem. And to deal with that political problem, we needed a political solution.

—Faryar Shirzad, Coinbase chief policy officer
But such laws never came. Over the next six months, instead, most politicians distanced themselves from the industry, considering it politically toxic. Meanwhile, a select number of progressive lawmakers seized on FTX’s demise as proof of crypto’s inherently criminal nature.

Votes on digital assets legislation, just months ago on the precipice, were now non-starters.

It took until mid-2023 for crypto policy leaders like Shirzad to realize just how drastically the ground had shifted under their feet. Persistent efforts to sway lawmakers kept hitting walls. Crypto’s existing lobbying tactics were now impotent.

“We began to realize that for all of our efforts, it didn’t matter,” Shirzad said.

“We were dealing with a political problem,” he said. “And to deal with that political problem, we needed a political solution.”

That solution would turn out to be the implementation of a corporate political spending strategy never before seen in American history—one that would cost some $300 million; that would, within barely more than a year, reverse the crypto industry’s fortunes entirely; and that some experts believe has paved the way for already-influential corporations to wield unprecedented control over the American political process.

“Go big or go home”

By the fall of 2023, the leaders of America’s wealthiest crypto companies had decided that, despite differing political views, they had no choice but to band together and do something bold to protect their young industry from extinction. Policy experts at these companies led the charge, convincing their bosses that a crypto super PAC could be the path forward—despite the many risks posed by such a strategy.

Super PACs were still a relatively new political instrument. Birthed by a 2010 U.S. Supreme Court ruling, they allowed individuals and corporations to donate unlimited sums of money to aid political candidates—so long as that money wasn’t touched by campaigns directly.

The innovation upended American campaign finance the moment it was legalized. Political organizations like AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobbying group, seized on super PACs as a means to reshape congressional races with unparalleled sums of cash.

Ideologically driven billionaires also became particularly infatuated with super PACs. Hye Young You, a Princeton professor specializing in the history of campaign finance in the United States, told Decrypt that sponsoring general pro-Democrat or pro-Republican super PACs emerged “almost as a political hobby” among America’s wealthiest elite between 2010 and 2022.

Washington D.C. Image: Shutterstock
Crypto Money Won the Election—And It Could Just Be Getting Started
This week’s U.S. election, like any other, had its winners and losers. But you’d be hard pressed to find a bigger winner coming out of Tuesday night than Fairshake.  The crypto super PAC, funded by the likes of Coinbase, Ripple, and Andreessen Horowitz, didn’t just win big on a handful of high-stakes, marquee fights. It ran the board, defying toss-up odds to elect almost every single Democrat and Republican it supported.  In rural counties, exurban suburbs, and densely populated cities, one thro...

During that entire period, however, super PACs were all-but avoided by corporations.

Why? PACs carried an anti-democratic stigma and were associated with partisanship—an alienating force that could turn off some portion of a corporation’s customer base. So America’s top industries largely wrote them off, You said, as more trouble than they were worth.

“It's quite remarkable how little corporations and industry sponsored particular super PACs,” she said. “Until this election.”

That such a strategy was not only untested but also risky wasn’t lost on the leaders of the three major corporations who debated supporting a crypto super PAC in the fall of 2023: America’s leading crypto exchange Coinbase, crypto payments company Ripple, and the Silicon Valley venture capital giant Andreessen Horowitz.

What if the crypto industry took shots at major political players and missed? What if getting overtly political turned out to be brand suicide?

Those concerns were mitigated by the digital asset industry’s increasingly perilous position in late 2023. The SEC was coming at all manner of crypto projects with full force. Any shot at change seemed less risky than doing nothing.

“We'd invested $150 million in defending against litigation from the SEC,” Stuart Alderoty, Ripple’s chief legal officer, told Decrypt. “So we certainly knew that not getting policy right was an expensive endeavor.”

“It was go big or go home,” he said.

So the leaders of Ripple, Coinbase, and Andreessen Horowitz decided to go big. Unprecedentedly big.

It was certainly a lot of money by anyone's measure. But given the alternative, it seemed like a rational decision to make.

—Stuart Alderoty, Ripple chief legal officer
They got in touch with the operators of Fairshake, a newly created crypto super PAC that didn’t have much in the way of funding or reputation, but already existed. After vetting Fairshake’s leadership, which was relatively inexperienced compared to that of other top super PACs, it was decided that the plan could work—so long as everyone involved agreed on several fundamental questions that would prove crucial to the road ahead.

If Ripple, Coinbase, and Andreessen Horowitz gifted Fairshake a massive war chest, would they all have the stomach to go after powerful incumbent lawmakers? The answer, after some discomfort, was yes. Could they all agree on a bipartisan slate of candidates, to ensure the durability of their coalition? Yes again. What if that meant abandoning Republicans, who had been good to the industry, in the name of supporting pro-crypto Democrats?

More discomfort ensued—but ultimately, sure. Whatever it took.

Image: JRdes / Shutterstock.com
SEC Crypto Crackdown: Every Company That Is Being Investigated
Almost every week lately, it seems there’s a new announcement that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has gone after yet another crypto company for alleged securities violations. And the crackdown doesn’t appear to be cooling down anytime soon. Here’s a handy running list to keep track of all crypto-related actions that the SEC has taken of late, including confirmed Wells Notices informing companies of impending enforcement action, reported inquiries, and a recap of some of the bi...


In September 2023, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong donated $1 million to Fairshake. The next month, Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz gave $2.5 million apiece. In November, Coinbase donated $5 million. By Christmas, Andreessen and Horowitz gifted another $14 million; Coinbase, another $15.5 million. Ripple matched both firms by throwing $20 million into the pot.

“It was certainly a lot of money by anyone's measure,” Ripple’s Alderoty said. “But given the alternative, it seemed like a rational decision to make.”

By the start of 2024, Fairshake had amassed nearly $85 million, obliterating the previous record held by a corporate group for super PAC fundraising: the National Association of Realtors’ comparatively meager $18 million fundraise in 2022.

By the eve of 2024’s presidential election, Fairshake and its affiliate PACs would raise nearly $300 million. 

The “crypto voter” and the “corporate money death star”
The players involved disagree on where the story goes from here. What is known for certain is that when 2024 kicked off, the vast majority of Democratic lawmakers were generally opposed to crypto’s lobbying efforts, and while some Republicans were supportive, most were ambivalent.

By May, crypto was a firmly ascendant cause across the political spectrum.

Leaders of the crypto policy movement are emphatic that this sea change was primarily thanks to a grassroots campaign, instigated by Coinbase, to activate the so-called crypto voter and show lawmakers how many millions of Americans were willing to support—or oppose—candidates based on their crypto stances.

Fairshake’s spending history tells another story. In February, the super PAC deployed over $10 million in a successful bid to defeat Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), a candidate for California’s open U.S. Senate seat.

They unloaded on her. That struck fear into the hearts of candidates.

—Rick Claypool, Public Citizen research director
This initial flex of Fairshake’s financial muscle was significant for several reasons. For one, it was seismic in scale: this single spend on anti-Porter ads dwarfed the candidate’s own positive ad spend by a factor of 20:1, according to Open Secrets.

Secondly, Porter wasn’t even particularly anti-crypto; she rarely if ever spoke on the subject. She was, however, something of a protégé of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), a staunch crypto critic. The association with Warren, apparently, was enough to trigger the crypto industry’s nuclear spending.

“Porter was not exactly crusading against crypto, and yet they unloaded on her,” Rick Claypool, a research director at Public Citizen, a consumer advocacy nonprofit, told Decrypt. “That struck fear into the hearts of candidates.”

U.S. Representative Katie Porter. Photo: Shutterstock
Coinbase, Ripple-Backed Super PAC Spends Millions to Defeat Elizabeth Warren Ally
A super PAC funded by some of crypto’s most powerful companies has amassed an $85 million war chest—and now, the organization is beginning to deploy those funds against political candidates across the country.  The political action committee (PAC), Fairshake, is funded principally by crypto giants Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz, and Ripple Labs, according to a recent Federal Election Commision filing. While those companies and their leaders have pledged tens of millions of dollars each to the org...


In the spring, a handful of key crypto-related votes came before Congress: a vote in the House on FIT21, a potential crypto market regulatory framework, and a vote in both chambers on the repeal of SAB 121, an SEC rule that discouraged banks from holding crypto.

While both bills would have had a tangible impact on crypto if signed into law, their consideration in May arguably served a more important purpose: acting as a litmus test for lawmakers regarding their stances on digital assets.

Months prior, Fairshake had signaled its intention to spend heavily in the general election. Those tens of millions of dollars, crucially, had yet to be committed for or against any general election candidates when FIT21 and SAB 121 came before Congress.

During those spring votes, Fairshake’s war chest hung in the air over Capitol Hill “like a corporate money Death Star,” Public Citizen's Claypool said.

The results were dramatic: 71 House Democrats, including Nancy Pelosi, broke with President Joe Biden to pass FIT21. Twelve Senate Democrats, including then-Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, defied Biden to pass a repeal of SAB 121. (The president subsequently vetoed the resolution.)

Democrats facing battleground elections in 2024 demonstrated significant changes in tune. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), for example, was running for a hotly contested U.S. Senate seat in Michigan at the time; she held an “F” rating on Coinbase’s “Stand With Crypto” watchdog site a month prior to the FIT21 and SAB 121 votes.

She then supported both initiatives in late May. In short order, her Stand With Crypto rating was upgraded to an “A.”

In September, Fairshake opted to throw millions of dollars behind Slotkin and against her opponent, a Republican who had vocally supported crypto for years. Slotkin ultimately won Michigan’s Senate race by a margin of less than 0.34%.

Senate candidate Mike Rogers (left). Photo: Mike Rogers for Senate
Republican Senate Candidate Blasts Crypto PAC Fairshake Over Snub: ‘They Needed a Democrat’
Michigan’s Republican nominee for Senate, Mike Rogers, says he’s supported crypto for years, stretching back to the heyday of Silk Road. He’s eagerly engaged with industry watchdogs like Stand With Crypto, and even attended blockchain conferences in person.  And yet, when Fairshake, the colossal pro-crypto super PAC, weighed in on Michigan’s senate race weeks ago, it opted not to support Rogers, but rather his opponent: a Democrat, Elissa Slotkin, who as recently as April held an “F” rating on S...


Oct 2, 2024
Most crypto industry leaders involved in Fairshake’s operations see the conversion of politicians like Slotkin as proof of crypto’s salience among the American public.

“I think once that became crystallized for Democrats, it made it a much more clear choice,” Josh Vlasto, a spokesperson and strategic advisor for Fairshake, told Decrypt. “‘We can move and embrace the technology that our constituents clearly support and clearly engage with.’”

But in an election year defined by hot-button issues like inflation, immigration, reproductive rights, and Israel’s war in Gaza, it’s not clear that crypto ranked as a high priority for any meaningful group of voters. Mike Rogers, Slotkin’s Republican opponent, previously told Decrypt that despite his strong support of the industry, crypto almost never came up on the campaign trail in Michigan in 2024.

Some say crypto’s lack of grassroots strength was revealed by Fairshake itself in the super PAC’s ad buys. Fairshake and its affiliates spent over $133 million across 68 congressional races in 2024; of that record-shattering spend, almost none was used to purchase ads that mentioned crypto whatsoever.

Decrypt could not find proof of a single general election ad purchased by Fairshake that mentioned crypto or digital assets; the super PAC did not provide evidence of any such ads when asked multiple times.

Fairshake general election ads seen by Decrypt instead referenced issues including border security and crime, the cost of living, and infrastructure.

“It makes me wonder,” Public Citizen’s Rick Claypool said. “If they were so sure that all they had to do was mobilize the crypto masses, then why wasn't that the story they were telling in the actual campaigns they put in front of voters?”

Fairshake’s Josh Vlasto pushed back on that conclusion. While he conceded that the overwhelming majority of ads bought by the PAC did not discuss crypto, Vlasto asserted it is common practice for special interest groups to run ads unrelated to their stated mission.

“It's proof of effectiveness,” he said. “If you're going to invest significant resources and support candidates that you believe in, do it in a way that helps them win the race.”

Crypto’s dream scenario
In the build-up to November, things were looking good for Fairshake—or as good as they reasonably could be in an election that was poised to come down to the thinnest of margins up and down the ballot.

For one, virtually all battleground congressional candidates appeared on board with the industry’s agenda. For another, Fairshake had endorsed a firmly bipartisan slate of Democratic and Republican candidates in the general election, and while that move certainly ruffled feathers and prompted defections, it did not cause any major rifts among the super PAC’s inner circle of megadonors.

And despite the fact that Fairshake had (likely wisely) opted to stay out of the extremely polarized presidential race, both Donald Trump, and, to a lesser extent, Kamala Harris, voiced support for crypto-related initiatives prior to Election Day.

And yet, nothing could have prepared anyone—including Fairshake’s own operators—for the super PAC’s astounding conquest on November 5.

Not only did Fairshake get its most prized “scalp” by defeating the crypto-skeptical chair of the Senate Banking Committee, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), with a pulverizing $40 million ad blitz—the PAC also saw almost every single one of its general election candidates win across the board.


Crypto Lobby Secures Major Victory as Sherrod Brown Loses Senate Seat in Ohio
U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown, a longtime crypto skeptic and chair of the powerful Senate Banking Committee, has lost his re-election bid in Ohio to Republican Bernie Moreno, handing a significant win to the crypto lobby after a record-breaking investment campaign.  Brown’s loss comes after Fairshake, a pro-crypto super PAC, poured an astonishing $40 million into unseating the influential Democratic incumbent, marking the largest share of its national budget. The former Democratic incumbent has sec...


Whether Democrat or Republican, rural representative or big-city senator, the clearest data-driven throughline to election night was that if you were backed by Fairshake, you probably got elected.

Add to that remarkable outcome the fact that Donald Trump won re-election after going all in on crypto—and the pledges made by incoming Republican majorities in the House and Senate to immediately pass digital assets legislation—and you get a dream scenario for the industry that would have sounded delusional even a year ago.

Gone in an instant were any theoretical regrets among Fairshake’s megadonors about political blowback or spending too lavishly on elections.

Viewed as investments, the hefty spends of Fairshake’s key donors have already reaped incredible rewards. Ripple, for example, spent $63 million on the 2024 election, according to Open Secrets. The company’s escrowed stash of XRP, a cryptocurrency its founders helped develop, has increased in value by more than $100 billion since election day.

By all accounts, the prospects for crypto’s regulatory fate in the United States appear rosier than ever. A broader view of the potential impact of Fairshake’s tactics beyond crypto, however, looks more grim.

Public Citizen’s Rick Claypool says he expects to see other corporate sectors attempt to replicate Fairshake’s strategy after the super PAC demonstrated such a substantial return on investment for donors. Those moves, he said, could easily dwarf crypto’s in size and impact—and pose a major problem for democracy.

“All things considered, crypto is not huge,” he said. “If you have other sectors or multiple sectors playing the same types of election games, pooling money to win a favorable Congress, it makes it that much harder for issues that people care about, but don’t align with a particular industry's profit motive, to get through.”

Fairshake’s Josh Vlasto took issue with the notion that money was purely to thank for the super PAC’s successes. He maintained that his team’s thoughtful and focused strategy was just as crucial to their victories.

“It's not just money,” Vlasto said. “It's not.”

Princeton’s Hye Young You, meanwhile, felt conflicted about the potential implications of crypto’s historic triumph in 2024.

“On one hand, the sheer amount of money and the way it might bias policy outcomes is worrisome,” she said.

On the other hand, You monitors a lot of PACs in her job, and couldn’t help but feel particularly invested in Fairshake. After all, she owns some Bitcoin



ccp

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auctions for Satoshi size BTC
« Reply #3288 on: December 13, 2024, 05:46:39 AM »
as little as 0.0001 of a BTC at a quick glance:

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-1FLW14/january-2025-nyinc-showcase-auction-session-6-physical-cryptocurrency-lots-35001-35087

Ya, you were right, some day they will be selling BTC in Satochis!  You called it.    8-)

Too bad I sold some BTC during the Sam Bankman Freed fiasco.

Still own some though.   


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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3290 on: December 15, 2024, 03:56:37 AM »
If the BSR gets approved, there is no falling back for BTC, its up only!. I would expect the mythical Omega (green candle), i.e. 100 K candle on the charts. The article is mixing up BSR and a falling BTC dominance that can be associated with an an ALT rally. As a side note, Eric Trump recently gave a BTC presentation in Abu Dhabi, he said he strongly believed that BTC is going to a Million. I think early in the Trump presidency, Trump will likely use an executive order to protect the 200 K BTC pile that the US possesses. To buy more BTC, the Lummis bill for the BSR must be passed and she is very optimistic since Trumps Treasury Secretary is supportive.

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GPF: Chinese Yuan passes Japanese Yen.
« Reply #3291 on: December 19, 2024, 09:07:47 AM »


Fourth place. The Chinese yuan overtook the Japanese yen to become the fourth-most used currency in global payments last month, according to data from the SWIFT global bank messaging network. Compared with October, the yuan’s share as global payments currency increased to 3.89 percent from 2.93 percent in November. The value of yuan transactions was up 22.12 percent relative to October.


ccp

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3293 on: December 19, 2024, 03:27:35 PM »
I don't really understand Willow

it is just a chip not a computer

yes ,  quantum computing will destroy security with regards to internet all Io computing and everything controlled today.

but it is yrs away.

see my post on the tech thread from today.

Read Kaku book: written for non physicists like me:

Kaku, Michio (2023). Quantum Supremacy: How the Quantum Computer Revolution Will Change Everything. Doubleday. ISBN 9780593744239

Quantum computing stocks are starting to go bonkers on hype
I watched on for a yr at 7 to 8 sat on it like a dork only to buy some at 14 and change when it took off overnight and now it is ~ 40 .  I bought at 14 + sold at 24+ and kept the difference in shares.

But it is totally speculative 
others on market Qbit recently skyrocketed

No way to know who will win this.

It may be even the Chinese in which case we will be so screwed.

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Big BTC drop
« Reply #3294 on: December 20, 2024, 04:05:15 AM »
???

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3295 on: December 20, 2024, 06:00:46 AM »
If I understand it correctly

think of how today an app would try to break a code

doing one security code at a time till it finds the same one.
then it does one after another till it works.  today super fast computers can do many many codes very fast

but then think of what if the process was to be able to search in theory through an  "infinite" number of security code all at the same time.

Thus it can search all possible codes immediately.  Hence it could in theory find the right code immediately.

And that is my simple layman's concept of how it can process such huge quantities of data so much more quickly than computers of today .

No security code would be safe since they can all be broken immediately.

If such technology gets into the wrong hands [how could it not] such as the CCP or a Putin etc

then civilization will end as we know it and the only ones who could survive would be those off the grid or third world people who lives on small farms etc. 

With good intentions the power of quant could solve new drug discovery, power efficiency , and so much more.

It is if it gets into evil hands - it could be a supreme danger.

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3296 on: December 20, 2024, 11:50:15 AM »
So, is this a real threat to the hypothesis of BTC?

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3297 on: December 20, 2024, 03:55:28 PM »
well
I don't think any wallet couldn't be hacked.

So maybe the block chain would be there but it would not be secure from prying eyes.
I wish I had a friend who understood this better than myself.


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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3298 on: December 21, 2024, 06:14:38 AM »
Adam Back the cryptographer cited in the BTC whitepaper by Satoshi, says quantum computers are decades away from hacking the BTC block chain. Work is ongoing to make the block chain quantum resistant. Also if the BTC block chain is hacked, we have bigger problems, for that means all DOD sites, all missile sites, all bank accts, all govt's, everything will be hacked.

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Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« Reply #3299 on: December 21, 2024, 06:22:24 AM »
Please enjoy some Christmas Hopium. Note the Q1 2025 quadrant, we are now at the 100K line, but also look at the 10, 100, 1000, 10,000 lines too. This is the best time of the season, when we start to cross the line (ring) sharply and this could happen since Trump is very pro BTC. If it goes up, I will sell some. Based on current best estimates, we will have the first peak by Feb-March. Lets see. Blue dots are the halvings and the black dots are the tops.