Author Topic: US-China (& Japan, South China Sea-- Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, etc)  (Read 355938 times)


ccp

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Re: US-China (& Japan, South China Sea-- Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, etc)
« Reply #1651 on: December 10, 2023, 07:28:20 AM »
I read somewhere or on news that the CCP is using fishing and other non military vessels to block waters in South China Sea.

Taking a page from Hamas.  Use civilians as military shields.

Sounds like they are provoking a response to give CCP an excuse to take military action.





Crafty_Dog

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GPF: Japan and Malaysia
« Reply #1656 on: December 18, 2023, 01:01:36 PM »
Maritime security. Japan and Malaysia announced that they will elevate their relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership. During a meeting between the Japanese and Malaysian leaders over the weekend, Tokyo also announced that it will grant $2.8 million to boost maritime security along Malaysia’s coast as part of its new Overseas Security Assistance initiative.

DougMacG

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Xi told Biden he will take Taiwan by whatever means necessary
« Reply #1657 on: December 20, 2023, 01:25:16 PM »
« Last Edit: December 20, 2023, 01:30:04 PM by DougMacG »

ya

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Re: US-China (& Japan, South China Sea-- Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, etc)
« Reply #1658 on: December 24, 2023, 05:58:29 AM »
Myanmar is not quiet. Lots of internal strife happening.


Crafty_Dog

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GPF: US-China, Philippines
« Reply #1659 on: December 27, 2023, 08:34:48 AM »
December 27, 2023
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China and the Philippines Square Off
By: George Friedman
The Philippines has long been an important component of Washington’s alliance network in the Asia-Pacific. Its geography is such that Manila can help to make or break China’s access to the maritime transport corridors its export-oriented economy depends on. But that same geography has usually meant that the Philippines has maintained some semblance of balance between Beijing and Washington.

The status quo changed in 2022, when Ferdinand Marcos Jr. was elected president. He has pursued a much more pro-U.S. foreign policy, one best exemplified by an agreement this year that allows Washington to establish military bases in the country. Add to this the fact that Australia, also a U.S. ally, signed a similar agreement with Papua New Guinea, and China is left looking at a potential wall stretching from the Aleutian Islands to Japan to Australia built for no other reason than to contain its expansion, armed with entrenched artillery and missiles and several ports of call.

Since then, the question has been whether China would respond – and if so, how. Previous efforts in that regard included attempts to drive a wedge between the Philippines and the United States; they failed because the U.S. had more to offer the Philippines economically than China. Beijing is now trying a different approach. Chinese President Xi Jinping had many reasons to speak with U.S. President Joe Biden in California earlier this year, and one of them surely included ways to limit the threat of a potential U.S. blockade. Whatever was or was not agreed to in California clearly did not satisfy China, which has begun a campaign designed to seduce Manila and discourage it from honoring its military agreement with the U.S. It has also threatened to intrude on the Philippines at will, has reissued a territorial claim in the South China Sea that runs counter to international law, and has even had its aircraft close in on U.S. bombers in the region in an attempt to force the U.S. to reevaluate its position in the region.

To be clear, no combat has yet taken place. These are merely gestures in a region where gestures are common currency. But what is clear from these events is that no stable understanding was achieved on military matters or the South China Sea. China is signaling that it will not tolerate American bases in the Philippines. But the U.S. has just substantially strengthened its position against China and is in no position to back down voluntarily.

This is the kind of situation that threatens to escalate into something much more deadly. The prospect of war, however, depends on the military capabilities of the two belligerents. The U.S. Navy has always been more powerful than China’s, and its new land-based defensive and offensive positions in the Philippines and Papua New Guinea undermine China’s ability to mount a naval assault even further. (If nothing else, they limit China’s aggression by making the risk of defeat too expensive to bear.)

That said, it was believed that China’s economic problems and America’s preoccupation with Ukraine would force the two into an accommodation. Sometimes a negotiation requires a final gut check to make sure nothing is left on the table. Perhaps this is the case, but it's more likely that Beijing doesn’t believe the U.S. can solve its economic problems, and Washington doesn’t believe China wants a military accommodation.

Crafty_Dog

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Crafty_Dog

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The Bashi Channel
« Reply #1661 on: January 06, 2024, 11:25:59 AM »


ccp

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Gertz: Pentagon releases that 46 Chinese linked military firms in US
« Reply #1663 on: February 06, 2024, 08:16:29 AM »
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jan/31/list-of-chinese-military-linked-firms-in-us-surges/

 :x

The LEFT too worried about McCarthyism, Red Scare ?
We should be worried and taking real action.
This is worse, far worse then the 50s.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: US-China (& Japan, South China Sea-- Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, etc)
« Reply #1664 on: February 06, 2024, 09:02:11 AM »
Please post that in the Chinese Penetration thread.   Thank you.

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: Philippines boosting presence near Taiwan
« Reply #1665 on: February 07, 2024, 10:08:31 AM »


Boosting presence. The Philippines plans to enhance its military presence and infrastructure in Batanes province near Taiwan, its defense secretary said. The secretary made the comment during a visit to a naval detachment in the province where a naval base is under construction. Tensions have been rising in the South China Sea in recent months, with repeated confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels and with the U.S. and the Philippines resuming joint patrols in November.

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: China-Philippines
« Reply #1666 on: February 14, 2024, 01:15:56 PM »
Manila's response. The Philippines deployed a warship off the coast of Palawan Island in the South China Sea, days after China expelled a Philippine coast guard vessel it said intruded into waters near a Chinese-controlled island in the region. Manila said it made the move to “protect its maritime interests.”



ccp

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China flooding markets with cheap goods
« Reply #1669 on: March 03, 2024, 06:01:41 AM »







The World Is in for Another China Shock
China is flooding foreign markets with cheap goods again. This time it isn’t buying much in return.
By
Jason Douglas
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Updated March 3, 2024 12:15 am



Vehicles awaiting export in Fuzhou, China. The country is making more cars than its domestic economy can absorb. PHOTO: CFOTO/ZUMA PRESS
In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the U.S. and the global economy experienced a “China shock,” a boom in imports of cheap Chinese-made goods that helped keep inflation low but at the cost of local manufacturing jobs. 

A sequel might be in the making as Beijing doubles down on exports to revive the country’s growth. Its factories are churning out more cars, machinery and consumer electronics than its domestic economy can absorb. Propped up by cheap, state-directed loans, Chinese companies are glutting foreign markets with products they can’t sell at home.

Some economists see this China shock pushing inflation down even more than the first. China’s economy is now slowing, whereas, in the previous era, it was booming. As a result, the disinflationary effect of cheap Chinese-manufactured goods won’t be offset by Chinese demand for iron ore, coal and other commodities.

China is also a much larger economy than it was, accounting for more of the world’s manufacturing. It had 31% of global manufacturing output in 2022, and 14% of all goods exports, according to World Bank data. Two decades earlier China’s share of manufacturing was less than 10% and of exports less than 5%.

Everyone is investing in manufacturing
In the early 2000s, overproduction mainly came from China, while factories elsewhere shut down. Now, the U.S. and other countries are investing heavily in and protecting their own industries as geopolitical tensions rise. Chinese firms such as the battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology are building plants overseas to soothe opposition to imports, though they already produce much of what the world needs at home.

The result could be a world swimming in manufactured goods, and short of the spending power to buy them—a classic recipe for falling prices.


Strollers at a factory in Handan, China. Chinese producer prices have been falling for 16 months. PHOTO: STR/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
“The balance of China’s impact on global prices is tilting even more clearly in a disinflationary direction,” said Thomas Gatley, China strategist at Gavekal Dragonomics. 

There are some countervailing forces. The U.S., Europe and Japan don’t want a rerun of the early 2000s, when cheap Chinese goods put many of their factories out of business. So they have extended billions of dollars in support to industries deemed strategic, and imposed or threatened to impose tariffs on Chinese imports. Aging populations and persistent labor shortages in the developed world could further offset some disinflationary pressure China exerts this time.

“It won’t be the same China shock,” said David Autor, a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of the authors of a 2016 paper that described the original China shock.

A different sort of China shock
Even so, “the concerns are more fundamental” now, Autor said, because China is competing with advanced economies in cars, computer chips and complex machinery—higher-value industries that are viewed as more central to technological leadership.

The first China shock came after a series of liberalizing reforms in China in the 1990s and its accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. For U.S. consumers, this brought considerable benefits. One 2019 paper found that consumer prices in the U.S. for goods fell 2% for every extra percentage point of market share grabbed by Chinese imports, with the biggest benefits felt by people on low and middle incomes.

But the China shock also piled pressure on domestic manufacturers. In 2016, Autor and other economists estimated that the U.S. lost more than two million jobs between 1999 and 2011 as a result of Chinese imports, as makers of furniture, toys and clothes buckled under the competition and workers in hollowed-out communities struggled to find new roles.

A sequel of sorts appears to be under way.

China’s economy expanded 5.2% last year, a subdued rate by its standards, and is expected to slow further as a drawn-out real-estate crunch crushes investment and consumers rein in spending. Capital Economics, a consulting firm, thinks annual growth will slow to around 2% by 2030. Beijing is seeking to engineer an economic turnaround by plowing money into factories, especially for semiconductors, aerospace, cars and renewable-energy equipment, and selling the resulting surplus abroad.

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Deflation in China
But weak demand and overcapacity means Chinese producer prices have been falling for 16 months, led by consumer and durable goods, food products, metals and electrical machinery.

That disinflationary impulse is showing up around the world. The price of U.S. imports from China fell 2.9% in January from a year earlier, while the price of imports from the European Union, Japan and Mexico all rose.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS
How can the world economy combat China’s deflation? Join the conversation below.

Unlike in the early 2000s, however, the Western world now sees China as its chief economic rival and geopolitical adversary. The EU is considering whether Chinese-made electric vehicles are unfairly subsidized and should be subject to tariffs or other import restrictions. Former President Donald Trump, who is seeking the Republican nomination for November’s presidential election, has floated the idea of hitting imports from China with tariffs of 60% or higher.

Such protectionism might shift some of the deflationary impact to other parts of the world, as Chinese exporters look for new markets in poorer countries. Those economies could see their own fledgling industries shrivel in the teeth of Chinese competition, much as the U.S. did in an earlier era. Unlike Japan or South Korea, which abandoned low-cost manufacturing as they progressed to higher-value exports, China has maintained a commanding position in low-cost sectors even as it pushes into products typically dominated by advanced economies. China represents “a unique mercantilist challenge,” said Rory Green, chief China economist at GlobalData–TS Lombard.

Write to Jason Douglas at jason.douglas@wsj.com

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/the-world-is-in-for-another-china-shock-3d98b533


DougMacG

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Re: China trying to bully Philippines
« Reply #1671 on: March 05, 2024, 11:01:49 AM »
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-fumes-after-us-ally-s-ominous-warning/ar-BB1jiRdA?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=0d0cbfe23a9c40a289eb4f641dd95a4f&ei=10

Good to see pushback from Philippines after the disaster of his predecessor:
https://www.cfr.org/article/dutertes-ingratiating-approach-china-has-been-bust

The tyrants of China are so used to suppressing free thought and free speech they forget Philippines in a sovereign nation not (yet) completely under their control.

Mr. Jinping - if you come in peace - give back the freedoms of (former) Hong Kong.

ccp

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serious legislation to protect us from TikTok in the works
« Reply #1672 on: March 06, 2024, 08:35:38 PM »
https://redstate.com/benkew/2024/03/06/why-an-outright-ban-on-tiktok-is-now-closer-than-ever-n2171046

appears bipartisan

This could be a win for the country if they don't screw it up.


Crafty_Dog

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FO
« Reply #1676 on: March 25, 2024, 03:26:14 PM »


(1) U.S. FALLING BEHIND CHINA IN GREAT POWER COMPETITION: During a House hearing, Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) said, “We’re beyond the point of a wake-up call” that foreign adversaries are using U.S. innovation to undermine U.S. national security interests, and the U.S. needs to open new markets to remain competitive in a great power competition.

Arnold & Porter law partner John Bellinger said, “We are not only not at the table but off the field” on deep-sea critical mineral mining, and the U.S. has the most to lose by not ratifying a U.N. treaty on deep-sea mining.

Why It Matters: U.S. officials are increasingly calling out the global reordering from the “unipolar moment” to an era of great power competition. The U.S. is playing catch-up to China, which has significantly expanded its influence into the Western Hemisphere through infrastructure and deep water port investments. The U.S. previously spurned investment in critical mineral mining in resource-rich regions like Africa and Latin America, and the slow development of U.S. mining investments is unlikely to secure critical mineral supply chains and block Chinese access ahead of an expected 2027 conflict. China is also moving to corner the global deep-sea critical mineral mining market, while the U.S. has resisted investing in the sector. – R.C.

(2) NEW BIDEN AIDE A SIGN CHINA TECH WAR ESCALATING: According to senior Biden administration officials, President Biden will appoint Navtej Dhillon and Mike Konczal to the National Economic Council (NEC).

Navtej Dhillon will be appointed as the NEC deputy director to focus on industrial policy and unfair Chinese economic practices.
Why It Matters: The Biden administration has continued to ratchet up its tech trade war with China. Biden appointing Dhillon to the NEC is a sign that the Biden administration will likely escalate the trade war ahead of a conflict with China that U.S. officials expect by 2027. – R.C.

Crafty_Dog

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GPF
« Reply #1677 on: March 27, 2024, 11:39:50 AM »
Shared space. South Korea and Japan signed a memorandum of cooperation to develop and operate regional satellite navigation systems in East Asia, Seoul’s science ministry announced. The memorandum outlines that both countries will collaborate on the development of their satellite systems, the Korean Positioning System and Japan's Quasi-Zenith Satellite System, focusing on coexistence and cooperation. The agreement took shape during the first technical working group meeting in Seoul

ccp

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Re: US-China (& Japan, South China Sea-- Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, etc)
« Reply #1678 on: March 27, 2024, 01:10:39 PM »
"Navtej Dhillon will be appointed as the NEC deputy director to focus on industrial policy and unfair Chinese economic practices.

Why It Matters: The Biden administration has continued to ratchet up its tech trade war with China. Biden appointing Dhillon to the NEC is a sign that the Biden administration will likely escalate the trade war ahead of a conflict with China that U.S. officials expect by 2027. – R.C."

Why it really matters :  election coming up.  period

Oh so all of sudden trade war is ok
now, after Trump pointed this out for many many yrs.    :roll:

Crafty_Dog

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Japan plans airport upgrades to prepare for war
« Reply #1679 on: March 28, 2024, 08:45:20 AM »
FO

Japan plans to upgrade five commercial airports and eleven seaports the Self-Defense Force and the Japanese Coast Guard to use in preparation for a war in the Pacific.


DougMacG

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GPF: Is Vietnam facilitating US-NK talks?
« Reply #1682 on: April 01, 2024, 02:29:40 PM »
April 1, 2024
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Is Vietnam Facilitating US-North Korea Talks?
Pyongyang’s traditional benefactors are not as reliable as they once were.
By: Allison Fedirka

North Korea lies athwart the interests of the world’s most important geopolitical actors – namely, the United States, China and Russia. The government in Pyongyang plays its bilateral relationships with these countries off one another as part of its broader strategy to ensure the survival of the Kim regime and to forestall complete economic collapse. But against the backdrop of current global conflicts that are creating hardships for China and Russia, this strategy is proving less effective than it once was. This explains why Pyongyang may be trying to hold back-channel talks with the U.S. through Vietnam.

The U.S. and North Korea have been at odds since the end of the Korean War. Their animosity only intensified as North Korea developed its ballistic missile systems and threatened U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific. The Soviet Union, on the other hand, long supported North Korea during its war efforts, and Russia has picked up where its predecessor left off. But for much of the 21st century, North Korea’s most valued relationship was with China, whose economic rise gave it plenty of money to support North Korea and whose geopolitical clout has created problems for the United States.

The evolution of U.S.-China relations and the outbreak of war in Ukraine forced the Kim regime to review its foreign ties. Since its missile scare in 2017, things have been going downhill. Reports of food shortages are common, embassies are closing, and uncertainty looms around Kim Jong Un’s health and potential successor. During this time, a trade war, draconian pandemic restrictions and natural limits to boom cycles caused China’s economy to slow dramatically. China’s economic downturn – and need to remain on Washington’s good side to reverse it – makes it a less reliable partner for North Korea. China can’t afford to alienate the U.S. right now, and supporting the North Korean regime is a high-risk, low-reward job.

Global Diplomatic Relations with North Korea

(click to enlarge)

Pyongyang thus began to turn more toward Russia for outside support. Initially, its support seemed to be enough. North Korean workers acquired jobs in nearby Russian territory, and Moscow delivered food shipments. This is on top of all the oil Russia has smuggled into North Korea to keep its economy afloat. More recently, North Korea has reportedly offered weapons and munitions to aid Russia's war effort in Ukraine. (Russia has denied as much.) However, the war has taken a toll on the Russian economy, which has been under a heavy sanctions regime for two years. The war has been costly and requires enormous funding at a time when Russians in non-metropolitan areas are experiencing a decline in purchasing power and living standards. Moscow’s ability to be a robust and dependable partner for North Korea is now in question.

A series of diplomatic visits involving Vietnam suggests that North Korea and the U.S. may be exploring back-channel talks to improve ties. On March 25, Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son met in Washington with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan. The same day, the head of the international department of North Korea's Workers' Party, Kim Song Nam, held talks with the head of the Vietnamese Communist Party's Commission for External Relations, Le Hoai Trung, in Hanoi, during which he called for boosting bilateral ties between the two countries. Also that day, South Korea’s defense, foreign and unification ministers met in Seoul with a U.S. congressional study group to discuss South Korea's relations with the North. At the meeting, the unification minister asked the U.S. to support South Korea's efforts to seek peaceful unification with North Korea.

Individually, each visit could be considered routine. But their timing and the succession of related diplomatic activity raises the possibility of back-channel talks. Russia's foreign intelligence chief, Sergei Naryshkin, visited North Korea on March 25-27 to exchange views on Russia and the Korean Peninsula. On March 26, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with the general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Central Committee, Nguyen Phu Trong. The call ended with Putin accepting an invitation to visit Vietnam at a “suitable” time. North Korea also sent a delegation led by its minister of foreign economic affairs to Moscow to discuss the implementation of various agreements. Finally, on March 28, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reiterated Tokyo’s interest in holding a summit with North Korea. (Kishida is scheduled to meet U.S. President Joe Biden in May.)

The involvement of Vietnam, which is uniquely positioned to facilitate these exchanges, gives credence to the possibility of back-channel talks. Hanoi is on relatively good terms with China, the U.S. and Russia. This is partly due to the fact that it’s a socialist republic that shares some ideological commonalities with China and Russia. Its shared Cold War experience with Russia also means that Moscow still enjoys good security ties with Vietnam, including somewhat privileged access for its navy to Cam Ranh Bay. Yet the government has liberalized its economy, making it more palatable to the West. In recent years, then, Vietnam’s geopolitical role has been marked by its balancing act between the U.S. and China, both of which are vying for influence in East Asia, and both of which have an interest in Vietnam for security and economic cooperation. Vietnam also stands to benefit from hosting U.S.-North Korea talks; given China’s comparative weakness in the region, doing a favor for Washington would encourage greater U.S. economic commitment to Vietnam. Last, it would not be the first time Vietnam assumed a significant role in U.S.-North Korea talks. Recall that Hanoi hosted the second summit between North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un and then-President Donald Trump in February 2019.

Timeline of North Korea Nuclear Negotiations

(click to enlarge)

The U.S. has its own interests in going along with talks. There are two main problems the U.S. would like to resolve with regard to North Korea. The first is denuclearization. Pyongyang’s potential nuclear and missile threat has been a thorn in Washington's side for decades. As North Korea advances its nuclear and missile programs, the threat grows ever greater. North Korea is currently working on an intercontinental missile with a nuclear warhead that is capable of hitting the U.S. The country has yet to turn this threat into a reality, but Washington considers that development a red line and will do everything in its power to prevent North Korea from acquiring such capabilities.

The second problem is tensions in the U.S.-Japan-South Korea security alliance. South Korea naturally has a lower tolerance for the North’s provocations, and there have been times in the past when Tokyo and Seoul disagreed on what response should be given to the North. The removal of the overlapping North Korean threat between South Korea and Japan would make it easier for the U.S. to execute this strategy.

There’s a chance this is all a product of routine diplomatic behavior, of course. North Korea continues to receive critical oil shipments from Russia, and the current development of the missile program fosters closer relations with Russia. Pyongyang has refused to communicate with Japan since the latest bilateral rift focused on Japanese abductees and the North's nuclear program. Satellite imagery indicates nuclear facility expansion, and in late March, North Korea claimed to have staged a ground engine test for a new intermediate-range hypersonic missile. This suggests North Korean efforts to inflate the threat it truly poses. In response, the top brass from the U.S., South Korean and Japanese military and security establishments met to discuss trilateral security efforts to deal with the threat. The U.S. and South Korea also launched a new task force whose sole purpose is to block North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.

Yet there are reasons to believe back-channel talks are more likely. First, the continuation of perceived hostile actions would be expected so that each side could improve its positioning going into talks. Second, it’s reasonable to assume that each side would keep security measures on track at these early stages in order to not be caught off guard in the event back-channel talks stall. Last, the operating principles of geopolitics dictate that shifts in relations among major world actors and their relative power will have knock-on effects and force secondary actors to redefine their positions to adapt to the changing geopolitical system.


ccp

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send in the fools
« Reply #1683 on: April 02, 2024, 10:18:06 AM »


Crafty_Dog

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FO: US-China-Philippines
« Reply #1685 on: April 08, 2024, 07:08:07 PM »
(4) U.S. ARMY TO BEGIN NEW JUNGLE TRAINING EXERCISE IN PHILIPPINES: The U.S. Army is scheduled to hold a jungle warfare training exercise alongside the Philippines Army in June. The two sides say they’ll work on logistics in jungle and island environments.
Manila reportedly requested the exercise, where soldiers will determine how they’ll conduct logistics and resupply for items like ammunition, radio batteries, and food in a simulated combat environment.

The U.S. Army also announced that Tomahawk cruise missile launchers are being deployed to the region due to “rising security threats.”
Meanwhile, the Philippines, Australia, Japan, and the U.S. each sent a ship to conduct a joint patrol in the South China Sea (SCS) over the weekend. China responded with a competing “combat patrol” in the area, according to Chinese state media.

Why It Matters: It certainly appears that the U.S. is not willing or prepared to militarily defend Taiwan against Chinese action and instead is drawing a line against Chinese encroachment into the Philippines. The U.S. and the Philippines already have two major annual multi-domain exercises. Adding another is likely intended to bolster the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty and convince China that the U.S.-Philippines (+Japan+Australia) military alliance is ready to defend the Philippines’ territorial sovereignty. Biden will reportedly “warn” China during a joint U.S.-Philippines-Japan summit this week that Chinese actions risk violating that treaty. – M.S.

Body-by-Guinness

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How Taiwan Stacks Up Compared to Israel re Sophisticated Drone Attacks
« Reply #1686 on: April 18, 2024, 05:29:01 AM »
This piece applies the lessons Israel (and the US, and several Arab countries that defended Israel[!!!] learned during Iran's ongoing drone attacks and apply those lessons to Taiwan. Suffice to say Taiwan has not demonstrated a similar capability or indeed has similar tools at hand, which is good news for China:

Apply Middle East Lessons to Taiwan
Iran's Attack Could be Replicated by China Against Taiwan

STEPHEN BRYEN
APR 17, 2024

There is still a great deal to learn about Iran's drone and missile attack on Israel.  Even so, it is very clear that if such an attack was launched by China against Taiwan, the results could well be dismal and Taiwan would suffer greatly.  If there is one clear lesson from Iran's attack, it is that the US and Japan along with Taiwan must urgently prepare to fend off a similar attack.

In the Iranian attack on Israel:

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170 Kamikaze Drones were fired. None entered Israeli territory. At least one appears to have landed in Iran.
30 Cruise Missiles were fired; 25 were shot down outside of Israeli territory.
103 out of 110 Ballistic Missiles were shot down; 7 Ballistic Missile impacts were recorded on Israeli territory​. Five of them hit the Nevatim air base damaging at least one transport plane.
Israel used its layered mostly ground-based air defenses including Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow-2 and Arrow-3.  One drone was shot down by an Israeli Sa'ar ship equipped with C-Dome, the sea-based version of Iron Dome.  Israel also used its fighter jets and other aircraft to shoot down drones and cruise missiles. 

Israel's defenses were deeply coordinated.  Israel put in the air its Oron surveillance aircraft, a multi-domain, multi-sensor solution that was used to spot threats and pass target coordinates to fighter aircraft and ground based defenses.  Israel also used its Eitam AWACS and Shavit intelligence gathering aircraft during the attack.  'The Wing of Zion' 767 aircraft, based at Nevatim, also was launched.  Ostensibly it is a VIP transport for Israel's top leaders.  In reality it is a sophisticated command center in case of a nuclear attack.

The US, UK, Jordan and Saudi Arabia also supported Israel against Iran's massive attack.  US ships and aircraft shot down some 80 "objects" that were mostly drones, but US AEGIS class Arleigh Burke class destroyers also used their AWACS missiles against ballistic missile threats.  Between four and seven SM-3 air defense missiles were launched.  The only on the ground casualties were in Israel, one Bedouin girl, age 7, seriously injured by shrapnel and in Jordan where  reportedly four people died.

The USS Wayne E. Meyer arrives at Naval Surface Warfare Center, Port Hueneme Division. The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer carries the 100th of the Aegis Weapons Systems that has been delivered to the Navy. The ship is named after the Navy Rear Admiral Wayne E. Meyer, who is known as the "Father of Aegis." Photo by Eric Parsons, US Navy
This was the first time Arab countries came to Israel's defense.

The pivot of the operation outside of Israel was the US Central Command (CENTCOM).  CENTCOM coordinated the actions of all the players.  While some of this coordination was improvised rather than planned far in advance, nonetheless it demonstrated the critical importance of an integrated approach to security.

This is an important, in fact a vital lesson for defending Taiwan.

There are three key findings.  The first is that if China launched a similar attack on Taiwan, Taiwan would need outside support for its defense just as Israel needed outside support to fend off the Iranian attacks.  As brilliant as Israel's air defense system is, it would have been saturated and unable to cope without help from the US, UK, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

Taiwan's air defenses are, as far as we know, not integrated and layered like Israel's.  Taiwan's air defenses consist of Patriot batteries and home-grown air defense solutions, especially Sky Bow III.  Sky Bow is said to be capable of dealing with aircraft, cruise missiles and short range tactical missiles.  It fills in the gap of coverage with Patriot Pac-3 designed to deal with strategic threats.

Taiwan has some sea based air defenses.  Its six Lafayette-class frigates, the best warships in Taiwan's Navy, are equipped with RIM-72C Sea Chaparral air defense missiles.  The missiles are old AIM-9 Sidewinders with very short range ( said to be 3 to 4 kilometers) and would not be effective against most contemporary threats. Taiwan has a project underway to upgrade the Lafayettes under the Xunlien Project. This project aims to install MK-41 vertical launch systems on the ships which requires significant structural changes to the frigates. The MK-41 is the same vertical launch system used on US AEGIS-equipped cruisers and destroyers, and also is used in the AEGIS Ashore system in Poland and Romania.  Taiwan plans to equip the frigates with Sky Bow II or Sky Bow III missiles.

The second key finding is that Taiwan's domestic air defenses still need upgrading, especially since its current systems would have difficulty dealing with drones and with complex saturation attacks. In particular, Taiwan would greatly benefit from Iron Dome and with air defense integration know-how.  Taiwan lacks any modern combat experience in using its missile defenses and has no hands-on knowledge of how they would perform under heavy combat stress.

One immediate enhancement would be for Taiwan to get Iron Dome.  The US owns two Iron Dome systems which the US Army, a particularly retarded organization when it comes to common sense and air defenses, does not want or even know what to do with.  The easy and obvious answer would be to transfer them to Taiwan.

The third finding relates to time and distance and how to handle an air attack on Taiwan.  It is quite true that the Israeli and CENTCOM air defenses were cobbled together and probably could stand significant improvement, more automation, and other steps to exploit capabilities and commonalities.  Even so, compared to what exists in the US Pacific Command (PACOM) and its responsibilities vis a vis Japan and Taiwan, it is hardly developed at all.  PACOM cannot fight to defend Taiwan unless its systems are coordinated with Taiwan.  Much of this means there is a great need for a fully mature command and control system.  Taiwan has long been excluded from any coordination activities, has not been involved in regional military exercises led by PACOM, and so far as is known there is no planning on how to deal with a sophisticated attack on Taiwan from China.

The US must take lessons from the Iran threat and apply them to Taiwan's defense.  Failing to do so leaves China in the catbird's seat and renders Taiwan's survival against any strong attack questionable.  If nothing is done, even if the US wanted to help Taiwan, it would be without the coordinated means to help.

https://weapons.substack.com/p/apply-middle-east-lessons-to-taiwan?r=1qo1e&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true



DougMacG

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The commander of US forces in the Indo-Pacific region has accused China of pursuing a “boiling frog” strategy, raising tensions in the region with increasingly dangerous military activity. Admiral John “Lung” Aquilino said that during his three years as US Indo-Pacific commander, China has increased its pace of military development and matched its growing capabilities with more destabilising behaviour. “It’s getting more aggressive, they’re getting more bold and it’s getting more dangerous,” Aquilino told the Financial Times in an interview before he hands over command to Admiral Samuel “Pappy” Paparo next week. Aquilino said China was stepping up its aggressive conduct through a “boiling frog” strategy, in which it gradually raised the temperature so that the ultimate danger was under-appreciated until it was too late. (Source: ft.com)
--------------------------------------------

Exhibit A:  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/27/chinese-jets-fly-sorties-over-taiwan-strait-in-show-of-force-as-us-delegation-departs

This happened right as Blinken was leaving.

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: China has crossed Biden's red line on Ukraine
« Reply #1690 on: May 01, 2024, 07:22:39 AM »
China Has Crossed Biden’s Red Line on Ukraine
The president warned Xi not to provide ‘material support’ to Russia. Will there be consequences?
By Matt Pottinger
April 30, 2024 4:55 pm ET



President Biden warned China two years ago not to provide “material support” for Russia’s war in Ukraine. On Friday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken conceded that Xi Jinping ignored that warning. China, Mr. Blinken said, was “overwhelmingly the No. 1 supplier” of Russia’s military industrial base, with the “material effect” of having fundamentally changed the course of the war. Whatever Mr. Biden chooses to do next will be momentous for global security and stability.

Mr. Biden can either enforce his red line through sanctions or other means, or he can signal a collapse of American resolve by applying merely symbolic penalties. Beijing and its strategic partners in Moscow, Tehran, Pyongyang and Caracas would surely interpret half-hearted enforcement as a green light to deepen their campaign of global chaos. Mr. Xi sees a historic opportunity here to undermine the West.

This is a moment akin to President Obama’s 2013 red-line failure in Syria. When dictator Bashar al-Assad defied Mr. Obama’s warning not to use chemical weapons on his people, the president abstained from military action, and the consequences were dire. Six months later Moscow launched its 2014 invasion of Crimea—the beginning of the now-decadelong Ukraine War. A failure to act decisively against China now would open a path for Russian victory in Ukraine.

Mr. Biden drew his red line on March 18, 2022, three weeks after Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. “I made no threats,” Mr. Biden said after a video call with Mr. Xi that day. But Mr. Biden said he made sure the Chinese president understood he would “be putting himself in significant jeopardy” and risking China’s economic ties with the U.S. and Europe if he materially supported Russia’s war.

Mr. Biden’s cabinet reinforced his ultimatum with specific warnings. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo warned that the administration could “essentially shut” China’s biggest chip maker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., in response to its chips being used by the Russian military. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen threatened financial sanctions. She followed up with a pledge late last year “to take decisive, and surgical, action against financial institutions that facilitate the supply of Russia’s war machine.”

Trade data suggest Beijing was careful to avoid overtly crossing the red line in 2022. But in 2023, when the Biden administration applied only token sanctions on Iranian entities that provided thousands of kamikaze drones to the Russians—drones that have saturated Ukrainian air defenses and caused widespread carnage—the Chinese probably decided that Mr. Biden’s bluster was a bluff. In March 2023, Mr. Xi visited the Kremlin in a bold show of solidarity with Mr. Putin. It turned out to be a watershed in Moscow’s war, effectively turning the conflict into a Chinese proxy war with the West.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies found that Chinese support for Russia’s military manufacturing skyrocketed beginning in early 2023. Mr. Blinken specifically mentioned to his Chinese counterparts “machine tools, microelectronics, nitrocellulose—which is critical to making munitions and rocket propellants—and other dual-use items that Moscow is using to ramp up its defense industrial base.” News reports over the past year also point to China’s provision of military vehicles, drones, bulletproof vests, gunpowder and satellite imagery.

Fracturing the West through proxy wars in Europe and the Middle East fits neatly within Mr. Xi’s exhortation to his bureaucracy to seek opportunity in international turmoil. “The most important characteristic of the world is, in a word, ‘chaos,’ and this trend appears likely to continue,” Mr. Xi told a seminar of Chinese Communist Party leaders in January 2021. “The times and trends are on our side.” As Mr. Xi departed a Kremlin meeting in March 2023, he went further, effectively declaring himself and Mr. Putin agents of chaos. “Right now there are changes, the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years,” he said. “And we are the ones driving these changes together.”

As the Biden team contemplates the potential costs of imposing sanctions on major Chinese banks and other systemically important companies, it must also weigh the costs of failing to do so. China’s leaders are vulnerable to meaningful sanctions. In late 2017, the Trump administration quietly but firmly threatened to impose sanctions on China’s main energy producer after Beijing resisted U.S. requests to restrict oil exports to North Korea. China knew the threat was credible and quickly agreed to co-sponsor an unprecedented United Nations Security Council resolution capping exports.

Today, that credibility is looking threadbare. Beijing’s official statements after the Blinken visit made no mention of the American complaint, and a Chinese Foreign Ministry official said flatly: “The Ukraine issue is not an issue between China and the United States. The U.S. side should not turn it into one.”

Worse, there are signs Beijing and its axis of chaos, which includes Russia, Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela, is planning the next phase of violent disruption. Beijing welcomed a delegation from Hamas on the same day Mr. Blinken left China—a fact Chinese officials kept from the American delegation. More ominously, Mr. Xi dispatched one of his most trusted aides, former spy agency chief and current Politburo member Chen Wenqing, to Moscow for a nine-day visit. The purpose of the trip was to tighten intelligence and security cooperation and pave the way for Mr. Putin’s visit to Beijing next month.

In a telling essay this month in the Chinese Communist Party’s top ideological and policy journal, Chen Yixin—the current head of China’s premier spy agency—promoted the idea of waging “struggle” far beyond China’s borders. Mr. Chen’s essay in the magazine Qiushi included a line that may as well serve as the informal slogan of the axis of chaos: “Seek advantages and avoid disadvantages in chaos.”

Mr. Pottinger served as deputy national security adviser, 2019-21. He chairs the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and is author of “The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan,” forthcoming in July.

ccp

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Re: US-China (& Japan, South China Sea-- Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, etc)
« Reply #1691 on: May 01, 2024, 08:20:25 AM »
Bottom line
don't proclaim red lines unless you are ready to back it up.
 :roll:

Blinken/Biden ->>  LOL

Crafty_Dog

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The bombed Chinese embassy in Serbia
« Reply #1692 on: May 10, 2024, 06:56:35 AM »

I'm guessing our 'accidental' (?) bombing of the Chinese embassy in Serbia has fallen off our radar screens, but is well remembered by the Chinese.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/xi-skips-visit-to-bombed-embassy-after-vowing-to-never-forget/ar-BB1m52qz?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=982893d4a3ca471aa55b5f69c281fa98&ei=9

Crafty_Dog

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FO: Symbolic Tariffs
« Reply #1693 on: May 10, 2024, 07:38:10 AM »
(1) BIDEN ADMIN: CHINA TARIFFS WILL BE MOSTLY SYMBOLIC: According to people familiar with the matter, the Biden administration will announce new tariffs targeting China’s electric vehicle (EV), battery, and solar cell industries as soon as next week.
“I don’t think it will have a major impact, as the original tariffs already hit them hard,” Singapore Management University law professor Henry Gao said.
Why It Matters: China dominates global markets on battery components and solar wafers. However, these new tariffs are unlikely to hit those Chinese industries because most U.S. imports are done through third countries. According to a Commerce Department investigation into the solar industry, the origin of the components is obscured by third countries and importers to get around tariffs on these components. Tariffs on Chinese EVs are very likely to be inconsequential for now, as Chinese EV makers have not penetrated the U.S. market, and demand for EVs is decreasing, likely due to issues with chargers, high cost, and reliability. The Biden administration’s goal is likely to look tough on China but avoid economic pain for Americans ahead of the November election. – R.C.

Crafty_Dog

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China building more pseudo islands
« Reply #1694 on: May 14, 2024, 04:59:48 AM »
I repeat my point that these islands are a violation of the Law of the Sea Treaty to which China (but not the US btw) is a signatory.

I repeat my point that Biden's failure as Obama's point man for China to oppose the construction and militarization of previous psuedo islands makes prima facie case of treasonous quid pro quo for the tens of millions of dollars that the Biden Crime Family received via bagman Hunter.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/philippines-alarmed-by-china-s-suspected-new-island-building/ar-BB1mk5fX?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=56276928cd0a42a6b33a511d5282c29a&ei=10