Author Topic: US-China (& Japan, South China Sea-- Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, etc)  (Read 462508 times)


DougMacG

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Re: More from Gordon Chang
« Reply #1751 on: October 25, 2024, 09:06:30 AM »
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-is-preparing-a-direct-attack-to-destroy-america/ar-AA1sVnfZ?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=30ea1eba812d4636a0b94b41109d47cf&ei=11

“Tens of thousands of military-age men have come across our border and are now in America,”

   - We tried to figure out how nineteen 9/11 hijackers could have gotten in and now "tens of thousands" if not millions come in without vetting, background checks or papers.

It's not theoretical or conspiratorial thinking.  Some are infiltrating military bases.  Some are plotting and planning.  Some are raping and killing. Some operate human trafficking operations.  Some work in the illegal fentanyl trade that killed more Americans than Vietnam.

'Liberals' used to say, 'if one child is harmed that's one too many'.  If one country is destroyed, ours, that's one too many.

What could go wrong.



Crafty_Dog

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Goldman: Rubio and US-China
« Reply #1754 on: November 13, 2024, 02:12:45 PM »
Hat tip BBG:

===========================

An apt consideration of Rubio’s perspective where China is concerned:

Rubio brings China Realism to the State Department
Senator portrays as fierce China hawk but his deep knowledge of China’s economic success could set the stage for a Nixon-like grand bargain

By DAVID P GOLDMAN
NOVEMBER 12, 2024

Marco Rubio has a thing or two to say about China. Image: X Screengrab

Marco Rubio will be the next Secretary of State in the second Trump administration, according to media reports.

The senior senator from Florida presents as a vociferous China hawk, like the whole of his Republican party, but with a key distinction: In September, Rubio published a 60-page report, “The World China Made,” with a comprehensive and painstakingly researched analysis of

Some commentators already speculate that the selection of a bona fide China hawk like Rubio might prepare a grand bargain with China, like Nixon’s 1972 China trip.

A credible anti-Communist like Nixon could make a deal with China without accusations of selling out, and Secretary of State Rubio could repeat the exercise, according to this line of thinking. Without second-guessing the incoming president’s negotiating strategy with China, Rubio’s published thoughts about China speak for themselves.

Full disclosure: the report cites Asia Times and this writer in particular, including our groundbreaking analysis of China’s export success in the Global South. By building factories in third countries, China circumvented the Trump and Biden tariffs by building supply chains for Vietnam, Mexico, India and other countries to export to the United States.


A bright line divides realists from Utopians among Washington’s China hawks. Neo-conservatives like Dan Blumenthal, popular publicists like Gordon Chang and Peter Zeihan, and true believers like former Secretary of State and CIA director Michael Pompeo believe that China is about to collapse and that the United States should hasten the fall by confronting China militarily and economically.

A senior official of the first Trump administration told this writer in 2018 that the then-president erred by striking a deal with China’s number two telecom equipment company, ZTE; if the US had shut it down, he averred, mobs of unemployed engineers would have marched on Beijing and overthrown Xi Jinping.

On the other side are realists who may detest China and accuse it of nefarious behavior but nonetheless recognize that China has made remarkable accomplishments in high-tech industry at home and in global trade. Rubio is the best-informed among the realists and he dismisses the Utopian vision in the conclusion of his report:

Commentary on China’s economy swings wildly between extremes. On the one hand, the Chinese economy is often portrayed as deeply troubled, perhaps even on the verge of collapse. Stories in this vein emphasize China’s very high debt burden, slowing growth, distressed real-estate sector, and aging population—all real problems. President Joe Biden repeated a version of this argument in an interview with Time magazine in June, where he stated that China’s economy is ‘on the brink.’…

It may be the case that China’s export- and manufacturing-oriented development model has been successful enough to propel China to the technology frontier in the short term, but not successful enough to help the country outrun its structural problems in the long term. This is certainly the narrative that many in Washington prefer, as it recalls our victory in the Cold War.

Then, an innovative, dynamic, and capitalist United States triumphed over an adversary with a gerontocratic and dysfunctional political class and a communist economic model incapable of managing the transition to the information age. It is tempting to believe that a similar triumph is now assured because our nation has been so successful in the past. We win, they lose. But an invincible belief in one’s own success is a recipe for complacency. And increasingly, this belief is at odds with the evidence in front of our faces.

If this report conveys any message, let it be that the United States cannot be complacent about Communist China. Think-tank scholars and economists may bank on China’s coming collapse. Beijing is taking the other side of that wager. It believes that manufacturing, exports, and ‘new quality productive forces’ are the keys to regime survival and indeed to the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” It believes that technology and production will enable it to preserve its communist system while becoming a rich country.

So far, it has succeeded in blazing this alternative development path. But suppose today is the high-water mark of China’s power. Even in such an optimistic scenario, the CCP will still present a real, existential threat to American industry and workers for years to come. And Communist China will still be a more formidable adversary than any the United States has faced in living memory. At this point, the burden of proof should be on the critics who insist the CCP’s project is doomed to fail.”


Some highlights from Rubio’s report include:

China leads the world in installations of industrial robots and installed more robots in 2022 than the rest of the world did combined.
China’s robot density surpassed the United States’ in 2021, a striking feat given the size of China’s manufacturing workforce and wage levels relative to our own.

Chinese smart manufacturing is enabled by its vast 5G telecommunications network, composed of more than 3.5 million 5G base stations.
Homegrown Chinese firms are helping China break its dependence on imported robots and machine tools. Despite record installations, China’s imports of industrial robots have declined the past two years. This is due to the steadily increasing business of Chinese firms, which had an estimated 35.5% domestic market. share in 2022, up from 17.5% a decade ago. China’s position in the highly fragmented machine-tool market is even stronger, with Chinese producers accounting for nearly a third of global production in 2022.

Chinese companies are establishing global value chains, which include sophisticated factories that will allow them to enter foreign markets and tamp down criticism about export practices.

Rubio’s message is that the United States has to make extraordinary efforts to stay ahead of China and should not delude itself that a stroke of the pen can hold back this technological behemoth.

The foreign policy conclusions that suggest themselves on the strength of this analysis are not hard to deduce.

Follow David P Goldman on X at @davidpgoldman

https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/rubio-brings-china-realism-to-the-state-department/


Crafty_Dog

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FO: US-Japan-Philippines-Taiwan
« Reply #1756 on: November 25, 2024, 08:26:13 AM »
second

(6) U.S. AND JAPAN PREPARE TO DEFEND TAIWAN: The U.S. and Japan plan to deploy U.S. forces with High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) in Japan’s southwestern islands and the Philippines in the event the Chinese attempt to take Taiwan by force, according to anonymous Japanese sources.

Why It Matters: The Early Warning team has long warned that the Chinese would need to seize the Japanese Nansei and Filipino Batanes islands in order to effectively blockade Taiwan. The U.S., Japan, and Philippines appear to be prepared to make that significantly harder to do without immediately bringing all three powers into China’s “internal” war with Taiwan. The threat of a wider war outside of China’s control is key to preventing China from starting the war over Taiwan. – J.V.

Crafty_Dog

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GPF
« Reply #1757 on: November 25, 2024, 09:52:19 AM »
Third

Contingency plans. The U.S. will deploy missile units to Japan’s southwestern Nansei island chain and the Philippines if there is a confrontation around Taiwan, Japan’s Kyodo news agency reported. According to the story, temporary bases would be set up on uninhabited islands on the island chain, and the Japan Self-Defense Force will provide logistical support as part of a contingency plan between the U.S. and Japan to respond to a potential crisis.

Crafty_Dog

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FO: Trump talks loudly and carries a big stick
« Reply #1758 on: November 30, 2024, 03:34:05 PM »


The U.S. Navy sent the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG) to the South China Sea (SCS) just four and a half months into their deployment. A Russian Surface Action Group (SAG) is operating in the SCS as well. (The Navy tends to run deployments between nine and 12 months so, the Abe CSG is likely to stick around for several months. This would likely coincide with the beginning of Trump’s trade war with China and provide a hard power counter to Trump’s tariff soft power. – J.V.)

Crafty_Dog

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FO: Japan equipping countries in Chinese periphery
« Reply #1759 on: December 03, 2024, 08:30:15 AM »
Japanese defense officials announced over the weekend that the Philippines, Indonesia, Mongolia, and Djibouti will receive military equipment to ensure their national security in 2025. The Philippines and Mongolia will receive radars, while the other two will receive equipment for “maritime security.” (All four nations are strategically important to China with three of them having territorial disputes with China. Djibouti is the home of China’s only official overseas base but also hosts several other nations’ forces. – J.V.)

ccp

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CCP bans some minerals to US
« Reply #1760 on: December 03, 2024, 10:09:21 AM »



Body-by-Guinness

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Commies Cut Taiwan Cable
« Reply #1763 on: January 08, 2025, 08:06:18 AM »
If they made this overt move, they’ve doubtless have others they’ll roll out next:

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/01/it-begins-china-cuts-undersea-internet-cables-taiwan/

Crafty_Dog

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Re: US-China (& Japan, South China Sea-- Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, etc)
« Reply #1764 on: January 08, 2025, 08:11:11 AM »
AGREE.

Including full spectrum operations disrupting the American homeland.

DougMacG

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Re: Commies Cut Taiwan Cable
« Reply #1765 on: January 09, 2025, 06:46:36 AM »
If they made this overt move, they’ve doubtless have others they’ll roll out next:

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/01/it-begins-china-cuts-undersea-internet-cables-taiwan/

Yes, what does this mean and what price do they pay for this?

Crafty_Dog

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Re: US-China (& Japan, South China Sea-- Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, etc)
« Reply #1766 on: January 09, 2025, 07:00:13 AM »
I am of the notion that the most plausible theory of the recent drones over our bases etc is that they were of Chinese origin.   Besides gathering EW intel, this was a powerful demonstration of proof of concept that we are completely unready to defend against drone attack-- the modern equivalent of Nazi blitzkrieg endrunning the Maginot Line.

Add to this that the Chinese are permanently in our telephones (per NSC Advisor Sullivan) and in our infrastructure (water, electricity, etc)

The point will be made off camera during convos with President Trump.


ccp

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Biden taking very bold action
« Reply #1767 on: January 11, 2025, 12:42:44 PM »
[heavy sarcasm]

with 9 days left....:

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/joe-biden-cybersecurity-china/2025/01/10/id/1194642/

Wonder what org. Sullivan and Blinks will wind up with .  Obviously lucrative.  Dirtballs.


Crafty_Dog

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Crafty_Dog

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FO: Cambodia's reach out a cover for the Chinese?
« Reply #1770 on: January 16, 2025, 09:34:15 AM »
(10) CAMBODIA: WE WANT EXPANDED MILITARY TIES WITH U.S.: The head of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces suggested that an expansion of military cooperation with the United States is mutually beneficial.
Cambodia has signaled it will continue to assist in searching for the remains of U.S. service members, and would consider joining U.S. military drills. In return, Cambodia requested the “exchange of information,” particularly for the country’s counterterrorism efforts and transnational criminal issues.
Why It Matters: Cambodia, China’s closest ally in the region, is likely using the U.S.’ need for inroads into continental Asia to spy on the United States for China. Expanded military cooperation with the United States would necessitate cross training on tactics and military equipment. Any naval training would likely be at Ream Naval Base, where the People’s Liberation Army Navy is stationed. This would allow for significant information gathering opportunities for the Chinese while the USN visits the port and operates in the area. – J.V.

DougMacG

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Vietnam's "communists slash government (why can't we?)
« Reply #1771 on: January 17, 2025, 12:25:56 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-09/vietnam-s-communists-join-musk-milei-in-slashing-government
(Paywall blocked.)

Biggest government downsize in decades.
Cut bureaucracy by 20%.
Measures aim to boost economy.

Bloomberg:  "As Elon Musk and Argentina's Javier Milei champion ambitious plans to dramatically slash the size of government, a similar effort is getting underway across the globe from political leaders with a completely different ideology: Vietnam's Communist Party.

In what amounts to the biggest overhaul of the state since adopting pro-market reforms in the 1980s, Vietnamese officials are targeting a roughly 20% reduction in the size of ministries, government agencies, and civil service workforce."

Crafty_Dog

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Re: US-China (& Japan, South China Sea-- Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, etc)
« Reply #1772 on: January 17, 2025, 07:14:13 PM »
Far out!

Crafty_Dog

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Meanwhile, in the real world of the South China Sea
« Reply #1773 on: February 28, 2025, 08:39:23 AM »
Given all that he is taking on right now, I get why Trump is not saying the Chinese deliberately killing over 100,000 Americans a year is an Act of War.  I get why he is silent as the Chinese ramp up for Taiwan and regularly cross the line in bullying the Philippines. 

That said, the point this entry from today's Forward Observer, makes a simple, direct, and profound point.

=========================

(10) CHINA CONDUCTS SHORT-NOTICE LIVE FIRE EXERCISE NEAR TAIWAN: China conducted another short-notice live fire exercise this morning, this time off southern Taiwan. The Taiwanese authorities immediately sent their armed forces to monitor the exercise.

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) noted that in light of the exercises near Vietnam and Australia, this is “sufficient to prove that China is the sole and greatest threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific region.”
Why It Matters: There are three main takeaways from this series of exercises: China is testing reaction times to China suddenly firing near adversarial coasts, China appears reasonably sure Vietnam will join a Pacific war against China, and Taiwan’s MND is correct about his diplomatic interpretation of the exercises. China’s testing reaction times suggests they may be considering an attack instead of a blockade but the blockade scenario remains the most likely course of action. These exercises are likely a means to intimidate the U.S.-led anti-hegemonic coalition partners as well as a test of reaction times.

The leaders of that anti-hegemonic coalition (U.S., Japan, Australia, India, Taiwan) are likely to use these exercises to sway other Pacific nations away from China. - J.V.


, , ,


(11) FOLLOW-UP: CHINESE CREW TO BE DETAINED FOR NATSEC CONCERNS: The Chinese crew arrested yesterday will remain detained in Taiwan as part of a “national security-level investigation” according to Taiwanese authorities.
(12) PHILIPPINES AIR FORCE CONSIDERS ESCORTING AIRCRAFT: The Philippines Air Force announced yesterday that it is considering escorting other civilian and military aircraft in the South China Sea with their fighters and attack aircraft. (Analyst Comment: These suggestions normally become policy, this should be taken as an imminent escalation in the South China Sea. - J.V.)

Crafty_Dog

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China takes major step towards war footing
« Reply #1774 on: March 12, 2025, 01:53:00 PM »


(8) CHINA TO INCREASE DUAL-USE INTERNAL TECHNOLOGIES: At China’s National People’s Congress, the government announced new “military-local collaboration” which would include joint land-use planning, joint military-local labs, and “transforming local emerging field resources into war [preparation].”

Why It Matters: These actions can create a feedback loop of China believing deterrence for homeland strikes is achieved and increased resolve to go to war as sanctions target their civilian population. - J.V.


Crafty_Dog

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GPF: Vietnam-Indonesia
« Reply #1776 on: March 18, 2025, 06:20:30 AM »


March 18, 2025
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Vietnam’s Plan to Become a Middle Power
Hanoi’s new leader is strengthening regional ties and placing pragmatism above ideology.
By: Victoria Herczegh

Vietnam and Indonesia last week elevated their bilateral relationship to a so-called comprehensive strategic partnership, committing to deeper economic cooperation, the removal of barriers to trade and investment, and expanded defense and intelligence collaboration. The move was unexpected: The two nations were not overtly striving for closer ties, especially given their long-standing maritime boundary and fishing rights conflicts in the South China Sea. But Vietnam, typically assertive in such matters, has suddenly taken a different approach. Alongside this upgraded partnership, both countries announced that in April they will ratify an agreement demarcating their exclusive economic zones after 12 years of negotiations.

Historically, Vietnam has prioritized balancing between the United States and China. But a new Vietnamese foreign policy is taking shape, one in which Hanoi seeks closer cooperation with its Southeast Asian neighbors, especially in sectors critical to its modernization such as technology, manufacturing and energy. Besides Indonesia, Vietnam in recent months has signed similar agreements upgrading bilateral ties with Singapore and Malaysia, indicating a broader pivot toward regional integration.

Vietnam’s long-term ambition is clear: It aims to become a middle power by 2045. Middle powers wield significant regional influence through diplomacy, economic strength and soft power. At a time of rising great-power competition, middle powers play a crucial role by promoting stability in their regions, maintaining balance and fostering cooperation. Vietnam’s strategic location makes it a good candidate for achieving middle power status, but to fulfill its potential it must navigate superpower rivalries, enhance its regional diplomatic influence and tackle domestic political and economic issues to shore up support at home. This goal also drives its slow and carefully planned efforts to distance itself from both China and the United States, and to strengthen bilateral ties with its regional peers.

Since joining the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 1995, Vietnam has played a key role in the bloc’s economic and political integration. Its strategy – for itself and for ASEAN – has prioritized regional stability and hedging between the U.S. and China. The U.S. is now one of Vietnam’s largest trading partners, with bilateral trade exceeding $100 billion. Hanoi has also deepened security cooperation with Washington, particularly in maritime security and freedom of navigation. Meanwhile, China remains Vietnam’s top trade partner, supplying essential goods (e.g., machinery, electronics and raw materials) and investing in Vietnam’s infrastructure and manufacturing. Despite their territorial disputes in the South China Sea, Vietnam has been careful to protest diplomatically while avoiding escalation.

Vietnam’s modernization trajectory differs from its ASEAN peers. Though its economy has surged since the “Doi Moi” reforms of the late 1980s, its per capita gross domestic product, at around $4,600 in 2023, still lags Malaysia (roughly $11,000) and Singapore (more than $70,000). It has established itself as a manufacturing hub for global trade, but it specializes in electronics, textiles and agriculture and has struggled to climb the value chain. Its tech and digital economy sectors have been slow to develop, and technology adoption and innovation are poor. Severe income inequality, environmental concerns and restricted civil liberties further complicate its progress. Unlike its more democratic ASEAN neighbors, Vietnam’s one-party authoritarian system hinders the sort of innovation and debate that typically drives modernization.

But something has changed. The lagging modernization process and the risk of entanglement in a U.S.-China trade war likely prompted Communist Party leader To Lam to act. In December, he proposed sweeping government reforms intended to fundamentally restructure Vietnamese governance. Approved in February, the overhaul eliminated five ministries (some were merged with others), three state-level commissions and more than 100,000 public sector jobs. It also included plans to consolidate smaller provinces and eliminate district-level offices. In addition, Lam’s new Cabinet is younger and includes more women and technocrats (12 new ministers hold doctorates), a stark contrast to the previous government, which was mostly men over the age of 65.

Lam’s unprecedented reforms aim to streamline governance, boost economic efficiency and accelerate technological advancement. Unlike his predecessor, Nguyen Phu Trong, who emphasized state centralization and anti-corruption crackdowns, Lam seeks to base his and the Communist Party’s legitimacy on rapid economic growth. He is dismantling outdated party practices to attract investment and align with global economic trends. At the same time, he is expanding the Politburo and placing loyalists in key positions – a classic move in communist power consolidation.

His foreign policy reflects this pragmatic turn. Unlike previous leaders who kept democratic ASEAN neighbors at arm’s length, Lam is actively strengthening regional ties. With the help of the freshly upgraded partnerships with Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, he hopes to kick-start Vietnam’s green energy, digital transformation and semiconductor technology. To reduce reliance on great power allies, Hanoi is also enhancing maritime security cooperation within ASEAN. In an effort to facilitate this shift, Lam even compromised on a long-standing territorial dispute with Indonesia over the Natuna Islands – reversing a position Hanoi had staunchly defended.

Lam’s leadership marks a break from Vietnam’s ideological past. He is putting pragmatism over doctrine, believing that Vietnam must adapt and assume leadership of ASEAN to remain competitive. Yet, his consolidation of power mirrors Chinese President Xi Jinping’s approach, demonstrating that while he is reforming governance, he remains firmly in control. If he can sustain this balance – modernizing the country while maintaining political stability – then Vietnam’s transformation could serve as a model for other countries navigating similar constraints