Author Topic: Trade, Tariffs, Globalization, Strategic Mercantilismm and Globalism itself  (Read 110546 times)


DougMacG

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Re: Laffer likes Trump's economic policies sans tariffs.
« Reply #401 on: March 28, 2025, 07:27:12 AM »
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/arthur-laffer-trump-economy/2025/03/28/id/1204700/

Me too.  We keep arguing  the tariffs are but a tool, a tactic, but he keeps arguing they are the centerpiece, the revenue stream.

We will see soon, I think, where this is heading. April 2 is reciprocity day, no joke. )

Are we going to have true free trade agreements worldwide or equal bilateral tariffs?  One leads to a more prosperous world.  The other much less so.  cf.1930s.

Hint: It does not take 2062 pages to write a "free trade agreement". It takes one sentence or less.
https://www.cato.org/regulation/winter-2018-2019/nafta-20-better-nothing

Crafty_Dog

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The anti-tariff argument is one of economic efficiency.

It ignores supply chain fragility (including from instability elsewhere) and missing link criteria (if something goes unsupplied who else gets fuct?) and strategic considerations (e.g. depending on the Chinese for anti-biotics, REEs, etc)

There is also the matter of tax policy-- moving from internal revenue to external revenue.

Witness today from FO:

(13) CHINA CONSIDERS SHUTTING BRITISH STEEL: Chinese investment group Jingye is considering shutting down its subsidiary British Steel as early as June 2025. Jingye cites tariffs, challenging market conditions, and environmental costs to produce high-carbon steel. According to UK Steel, the largest British Steel furnace produces about 21% of the U.K.’s total steel production and 16% of the U.K.’s total needs. (By blaming tariffs, China is effectively telling the world that if you allow them to control your industry and they disagree with your policies, they will shut off your manufacturing. This will drive nations away from China. - J.V.)
« Last Edit: March 28, 2025, 08:40:51 AM by Crafty_Dog »

DougMacG

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"The anti-tariff argument is one of economic efficiency.

It ignores supply chain fragility (including from instability elsewhere) and missing link criteria (if something goes unsupplied who else gets fuct?) and strategic considerations (e.g. depending on the Chinese for anti-biotics, REEs, etc)"


  - Good luck threading that needle. It worked (sort of) for others when their trading partners (US) didn't retaliate. That doesn't seem to be the case for us now.

20 worst countries for freedom to trade include Cameroon, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, Haiti, Afghanistan, Syria, North Korea.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-20-best-and-worst-countries-in-the-world-according-to-the-DEA-LPI_tbl3_317134092

Which group do we want to be in?

Regarding China etc. I don't see a conflict between free trade generally and banning imports, exports with adversaries.

« Last Edit: March 28, 2025, 08:45:07 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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How would you apply your last sentence to China threatening to shut down its British steel operations?

DougMacG

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How would you apply your last sentence to China threatening to shut down its British steel operations?

"Regarding China etc. I don't see a conflict between free trade generally and banning imports, exports with adversaries."

Add 'ban Chinese ownership' to the above, if that's how they behave.

https://apnews.com/article/britain-steel-job-losses-scunthorpe-china-fe3a0edf7ebbc8340115677dddd9ddb5

I agree, free trade doesn't apply to thieves and scoundrels. In all trade policy discussions, China is a unique case.

Also, export licenses have long been required for military and dual use technologies.

I get what you are saying about protecting strategic Industries, but isn't that what Canada is doing with dairy and lumber, what Germany is doing with automobiles, etc. Accept all of that and add in all of ours plus the retaliations and where does it end?
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Isn't there a contradiction between setting tariffs so high that no one Imports steel for example, and having a steady tariff revenue stream?

Our central planners are going to dynamically set tariff rates for every individual product so perfectly that both domestic production and a reliable tariff revenue stream will exist?

Color me skeptical.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2025, 10:10:25 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Strategic tariffs and reciprocal tariffs and punititve tariffs are distinct and different criteria apply to each.

Yes there are serious balancing challenges for each of these categories, but is continuing what we have now acceptable?   What would you have us do?
« Last Edit: March 28, 2025, 10:34:31 AM by Crafty_Dog »

DougMacG

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Promoting tariffs, a dangerous game
« Reply #407 on: March 29, 2025, 01:18:34 AM »
"Strategic tariffs and reciprocal tariffs and punititve tariffs are distinct and different criteria apply to each."

"Yes there are serious balancing challenges for each of these categories, but is continuing what we have now acceptable?   What would you have us do?"

-----------------------

1. China is a special exception, they steal from us and they are a military adversary.

2. The unrecipical nature of the trading world Trump walked into justifies the tactics he is currently taking.but my understanding is the end game of reciprocal tariffs is zero tariffs.

3. Propping up our noncompetitive industries while breaking down trading partner barriers seems contradictory to me. For every import tax we levy, we can expect more tariffs against our exports. No?

4. A tariff is a tax on our consumer.  If they are widespread, then we are poorer. A tough tradeoff.

5. I come into this with with an exporter career bias. A small manufacturer here may have half its business overseas. While tariffs may protect some here they jeopardize others with retaliatory tariffs overseas. Not win-win.

6. Again, the list of countries with lowest barriers to trade and highest barriers, like the Heritage economic freedom index, all point to a direct correlation between economic freedom, low taxes, low tariffs, and prosperity. Prosperity is a big deal, number one except for maybe freedom and security, and it plays a big role in those.

7. Old data but its been posted, docunented here that the high VAT countries of Europe would be the 46th richest state here if a US state (among the poorest) adjusted for PPP, purchasing power parity, because of high consumption taxes.

8. Sorry but I have yet to see the raising  and levying of new taxes make existing taxes go down. We have a $2 :trillion deficit. These revenues at best will chip that down, but not if new taxes and trade wars trigger recession or worse.

9. I side with Laffer, Steve Moore, Sowell, Adam Smith on this, here is Jude Wanniski:

Wanniski's 1978 book, The Way the World Works, documented his theory that the United States Senate's floor votes on the Smoot–Hawley tariff legislation coincided day to day with the Wall Street stock market Crash of 1929, and that the Great Depression was the result of the Smoot–Hawley tariff, rather than any failure...
https://en.wikipedia.org
Jude Wanniski, ki - Wikipedia

10. Trump is playing a high stakes poker game with this. I hope he wins.  Winning means (to me) both sides taking their reciprial tariffs down to zero, like India, Vietnam, Britain have suggested.

11. I don't trust government industry technocrats to strike the aforementioned perfect protectionist balance.

12. Back to 1. China is special case. Mexico is a special case, we have goals other than trade. Carve out too many exceptions to free trade and per no. 6. above, prosperity suffers. With economic failure will come political failure, more socialism, less freedom. 

JMHO.

Okay, one more, 13. Herman Cain's rule of 9-9-9. If you're going to tax something, let's not be talking in double digits, 25%, 50%, etc. State and local sales taxes I'm seeing across the nation already round to 10%, are bad enough. Add 10 more, the federal tariff to that and we're at 20%. There won't be a lot of consumin" goin' on out there even at that rate. I'm afraid we'll have the economic dynamism of socialist Europe.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2025, 01:48:09 AM by DougMacG »

ccp

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really good synopsis
thanks Doug.

seems like the tariffs are very risky at least when applied to non combatant nations unlike as you pointed out China, [and Russia], and Mexico a special case.

perhaps a few others like Venezuela Iran etc.

DougMacG

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Milton Friedman on tariffs, many quotes
« Reply #409 on: March 29, 2025, 09:30:01 AM »
More quotes coming. I will add YouTube links to this.
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Friedman quotes an economic book from the 1890s:
(from memory)
'In times of war we blockade an enemy to prevent them from getting the goods they need from the outside. In times of peace, with tariffs, we do that to ourselves.'
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FEE.org

Monday, April 9, 2018
Milton Friedman: The Way We Talk about Trade Confuses the Issue

In the international trade area, the language is almost always about how we must export, and what’s really good is an industry that produces exports, and if we buy from abroad and import, that’s bad. But surely that’s upside-down. What we send abroad, we can’t eat, we can’t wear, we can’t use for our houses. The goods and services we send abroad, are goods and services not available to us. On the other hand, the goods and services we import, they provide us with TV sets we can watch, with automobiles we can drive, with all sorts of nice things for us to use.

The gain from foreign trade is what we import. What we export is a cost of getting those imports. And the proper objective for a nation as Adam Smith put it, is to arrange things so that we get as large a volume of imports as possible, for as small a volume of exports as possible.

This carries over to the terminology we use. When people talk about a favorable balance of trade, what is that term taken to mean? It’s taken to mean that we export more than we import. But from the point of our well-being, that’s an unfavorable balance. That means we’re sending out more goods and getting fewer in. Each of you in your private household would know better than that. You don’t regard it as a favorable balance when you have to send out more goods to get fewer coming in. It’s favorable when you can get more by sending out less.
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https://youtu.be/FzhQZ2iNV-k?si=wFVOEp7q6m98PAb1
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https://www.hoover.org/research/case-free-trade

The case for free trade

Ever since Adam Smith there has been virtual unanimity among economists, whatever their ideological position on other issues, that international free trade is in the best interests of trading countries and of the world. Yet tariffs have been the rule....
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« Last Edit: March 29, 2025, 09:46:50 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Yes, that is the economic argument.

Crafty_Dog

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FO: Trump's tariffs
« Reply #411 on: April 03, 2025, 07:32:29 AM »

(1) TRUMP ANNOUNCES BLANKET TARIFFS ON ALL TRADE PARTNERS: President Donald Trump announced tariffs on all U.S. trade partners except Mexico and Canada yesterday, with a floor of 10% tariffs levied on all foreign imports.

According to the executive order, the 10% tariffs will begin at midnight on 5 April, and increase on 9 April. De minimis tariff exemptions will also end on 2 May.

Why It Matters: The explicit goal of the tariffs outlined in the order is to rebuild U.S. manufacturing, and push foreign trade partners to reduce or eliminate non-tariff trade barriers. However, the implicit goal may also be an attempt to contain China’s industrial power, which China has used to gain control over key supply chains and industries, as part of a larger China containment strategy. China is now facing 54% tariffs on all exports to the U.S. which could increase, and an additional 25% tariff for importing Venezuelan oil would increase the cumulative tariff on Chinese imports to 79%. - R.C.

, , ,

(10) TARIFF REACTION BREAKS ON “PIVOT TO ASIA” LINES: Nations such as Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea and India immediately said they would contact the U.S. Trade Representative to begin tariff negotiations. Meanwhile, much of Europe and China began threatening retaliatory measures.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2025, 07:40:49 AM by Crafty_Dog »

DougMacG

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Multiple countries slash tariffs
« Reply #412 on: April 03, 2025, 08:00:46 AM »
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/04/winning-trumps-reciprocal-tariffs-trigger-global-response-multiple/

This article is from yesterday. I'm hoping for much more news on this front shortly.

ccp

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well this is a start to finish off the pain we are seeing
« Reply #413 on: April 03, 2025, 09:06:17 AM »
Israel: On Tuesday, Israel announced the cancellation of all remaining tariffs on imports from the United States. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that this move is intended to strengthen economic ties with the U.S. and lower living costs in Israel.

Vietnam: Vietnam has outlined plans to reduce tariffs on several U.S. products, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), automobiles, and ethanol. The tariff on American LNG will decrease from 5% to 2%, on cars from a range of 45%-64% to 32%, and on ethanol from 10% to 5%. These measures aim to lower Vietnam’s trade surplus with the U.S. and avoid potential U.S. tariffs.

India: India is considering cutting tariffs on over half of U.S. imports, valued at $23 billion, to protect its $66 billion in exports from impending U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Negotiations are underway, with India indicating a willingness to significantly lower or entirely remove tariffs on many U.S. goods, contingent on the U.S. providing relief from the reciprocal tariffs.

Switzerland: Swiss Economic Affairs Minister Guy Parmelin emphasized that Switzerland has eliminated industrial tariffs, allowing almost 99% of U.S. goods to enter the country duty-free. This move is part of Switzerland’s efforts to avoid tariffs imposed by the U.S. under the new policy.

ccp

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DougMacG

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ccp

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I like tused  the labelling game the Dems do to us by calling this "liberation day"

like the giant spending bills the Dems pass with labels :

child tax credit bill
infrastructure etc




ccp

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2nd post
« Reply #417 on: April 03, 2025, 08:05:45 PM »
Pelosi on tariffs and chinese-us trade deficits in 1996

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/04/03/watch-nancy-pelosi-in-1996-assails-u-s-free-trade-with-china-is-this-reciprocal/

The trade deficit has risen from 39 billion peaking at 418 billion in 2018  while Pelosi's breast shave dropped precipiticly since 1996. This yr in the first 2 months it appears to be about 52.9 billion.

But if you look at the ration of exports to China in relation imports from China it seems to remain about the same ~ 3 to 5.

One has to go back to 1985 to find the US China trade was balanced.

What I do not quite understand is China is where the tariff fit in to this graph:

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

Does our export numbers  include the tariff fees we must pay them?

If so we are exporting a lot less in proportion to importing from them then is even reflected in the graph's numbers.

Boy they sure duped us our leaders.  Even Pelosi noticed it but seemed silent all these yrs later - question is why?

And the Wall street people and big tech drooled over their cheap labor.  I remember the Sharks on Shark tank often asking if the product was made in China and complimenting the entreprenneurs who said yes, and grimacing if they said no.

We paid for the soft weapons ( embedded in their products ) they are readying to use against us.










« Last Edit: April 03, 2025, 08:14:18 PM by ccp »