Author Topic: 2024  (Read 153296 times)

DougMacG

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Re: Cats & Dogs in Springfield
« Reply #1750 on: September 15, 2024, 04:31:02 AM »
Vance and Trump have invented a new way to get so called mainstream to cover a story, embellish and let it go viral through "fact check".

Suddenly the whole country knows about Haitians in Ohio, taking over towns

It's not just Springfield and Aurora who don't want this. .

ccp

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Re: 2024
« Reply #1751 on: September 15, 2024, 09:54:02 AM »
oh but it is about the poor Haitians so ->RACIST

from the party whose candidate is telling us she wants to be Prez for all (Americans and illegals  :wink:)

and blame Trump for Racism in this country when it is they who bring up everything and put it into black-white terms.

ccp

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Crafty_Dog

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PP: Trump flips to now oppose SALT cap
« Reply #1753 on: September 19, 2024, 12:30:56 PM »
Disappointing.

====================

Trump now opposes SALT cap: During his first presidential term, Donald Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which included a $10,000 cap on state and local taxes (SALT) that could be deducted from federal taxes. High-tax Democrat-run states like New York and California loudly objected to the measure because they like having low-tax states subsidize their high taxes and spending. Republicans support the cap because it prevents the wealthy within these blue states from avoiding the high taxes they vote for. However, Trump now appears to be flip-flopping on the issue, arguing for eliminating the SALT cap. On Truth Social, Trump posted, "I will turn it around, get SALT back, lower your Taxes, and so much more." Beyond the post, there has been no further clarification of Trump's position on the issue. The apparent motive for the flip-flop may be in response to a number of Republican representatives in New York who have been calling for restoring SALT. The problem is that restoring SALT would negatively impact the national debt.

DougMacG

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Re: 2024
« Reply #1754 on: September 19, 2024, 02:17:57 PM »
Trump leads Harris 54-44 among Jewish voters in New York, according to the Siena poll

(Sorry no link). X.com

ccp

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Re: 2024
« Reply #1755 on: September 19, 2024, 03:12:16 PM »
"Trump leads Harris 54-44 among Jewish voters in New York"

I find this hard to believe but would be more than delighted if true

Maybe some of these same Jews would vote out so many of the Democrat Jews now in office ! 

I can think of two Joshes right off ( and I am not speaking about Josh Hawley possible the only Josh I like though not Jewish)

how about kicking out Schumer and Nadler from NY for starters.


« Last Edit: September 19, 2024, 03:13:51 PM by ccp »

ccp

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Re: 2024
« Reply #1756 on: September 19, 2024, 03:17:06 PM »
Here it is

10 Jewish Democrat Senators

0 Jewish Republican Senators

25 Jewish Democrat Congressmen/women

2 Jewish Republican Congressmen

Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2024
« Reply #1757 on: September 19, 2024, 03:33:49 PM »
In addition to abortion, issues tht favor Kommie are health care (think of negotiating lower prices for drugs with Big Pharma and absence of alternative to Obamacare) and Green Issues-- including but not limited to Global Warming.

ccp

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The FBI says Iran tried to send hacked files to Democrats. It's another sign of
« Reply #1758 on: September 19, 2024, 06:00:34 PM »
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-fbi-says-iran-tried-to-send-hacked-files-to-democrats-it-s-another-sign-of-foreign-meddling/ar-AA1qR5rC?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=f9276c7fad6e48f78a8bafbdfd1fa354&ei=20

"No signs Democrats accessed the stolen material
The effort fell flat: There’s no evidence anyone ever even responded to the emails."   :wink:

She said the campaign has cooperated with law enforcement ever since being made aware that Biden associates were “among the intended victims of this foreign influence operation.”
 
I thought it had information on Trump campaign?  So how were the Democrats the victims ?      :wink:

"  Though the [Trump Russian collusion]  investigation did not establish a criminal conspiracy, officials did determine that Trump associates actively welcomed the Russian assistance and hoped to exploit the help for political gain."    :wink: :roll:

"Speaking Wednesday at a cybersecurity event, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said a “more diverse set of actors” than before was threatening elections."     don't forget to add the US corporate media as one of the actors


ccp

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Follow up on Jewish political influence in the US
« Reply #1760 on: September 21, 2024, 08:18:16 AM »
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-vows-bring-back-travel-004459940.html

As a Jew, I have echoed this for yrs on this board.

Jewish political donations:

https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/american-jewish-political-giving-a-primer/

Interestingly, we also donate a lot to Republicans but far less then to Dems.  :-D

Jews make up about 1.7 % of the [counted] US population.
Yet they hold 6.9 % of the members of the Houses.
I don't know if they contribute 50% of political donations or not but it would be a lot.

I am myself very interested in politics by following it in the news daily.

Many of the academics and the lawyers who wage war on Trump and R's are Jewish.

Many in government are Jewish -  Blinken, Mayorkas, Alexrod, Morris .

Some prominent in the media - Tapper, Bash, Medhi, Blizter .

Do we hold more power then our measely numbers would suggest?

Undeniable.

The truth is the truth

Is it enough to sway an election? 
Of course I don't KNOW but I suspect it very well could be in a close election.

Yet of course,  far more people who are woke, Democrat, socialists are not Jews.

So I just don't know. 

But for sure it is annoying to see so many Jews associate their self identity with the Democrat party rather then as either Americans or Jew.

Any other thoughts?


ccp

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seond post
« Reply #1761 on: September 21, 2024, 08:25:35 AM »
I recall reading in Montefiorre's books somewhere he mentions the oft claim that Jews were very influential in Communist party during Stalin's time.

I don't recall the exact numbers but it was somewhat similar to the numbers I post above today in the US .

~ 4-6% of Communist Party members during Stalin were Jewish while the population was something akin to 2%.  Not huge numbers but it does follow that we above average in political acitivity.

Of course, their influence in Soviet Russia could not have been huge like here since the system was controlled by Stalin - not them.

But there is something about our up front activity that seems to garner attention and focus to our group that I feel contributes to outright anti- semitism

Look at the Rothchilds .  They were , I read unfairly targeted.

I guess if Jews were all Conservatives I would not be so interested in this.  :wink:

DougMacG

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Tim Walz writes Trump campaign ad
« Reply #1762 on: September 22, 2024, 06:14:21 AM »
Democrats pretend Trump is the incumbent. Blame him for the border, inflation, crime war.

Tim Walz says "we can't afford 4 more years of this".

I agree.

https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2024/09/21/tim-walzs-comment-n2179611
« Last Edit: September 22, 2024, 06:48:34 PM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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« Last Edit: September 23, 2024, 04:02:09 PM by Crafty_Dog »


DougMacG

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CNN Trump up in battleground states, Biased Polling Whiplash
« Reply #1765 on: September 24, 2024, 07:01:03 AM »
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/good-news-for-donald-trump-cnn-s-harry-enten-says-trump-is-performing-significantly-better-in-swing-states/ar-AA1r3ikb?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=4f6d3740bd864cf1bc64ab93bfa4378a&ei=19

Leftwing analysis here:
https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/2024-09-23-polling-whiplash/
--------------------

[Doug]

The election has already started. 

Mentioned in the link above, all polls are opinion journalism; they are constantly deciding which voters are 'likely voters', they decide who to ask and what to publish.  Plus we know they are agenda driven. Watching David Muir comment and question on national television, we know across the electorate credibility is not job one for journalism.

This election is tight and will go down to the wire.

As Harris gets out more she reminds independents why they didn't like her before she was top of the ticket, and as she talks to her base and other groups she reminds centrists she isn't one.

Trump is performing way better than 2016 and 2020 where both essentially ended in a tie where polls had him losing by substantial margins.

But polling companies see their mistakes and presumably improve their methods(?).

Older women are more likely to talk to pollsters than younger men, for example.  Pretty hard to get around that.  I care deeply about the outcome (and polling) but I won't ever talk to a pollster.  In a world of spam callers, how would i know a pollster if he or she stood in front of me, and I still wouldn't talk to them or trust them to write my response down accurately.

My local state representative walks up to every door in the district, makes multiple tries, and I've never been home when he comes. Yet I am 100% certain to vote for him in the general election if able.

My take is that Trump will win, and win more states than the experts expect.  Worst case I see is an essential tie and he loses to alleged cheat with an aftermath worse than ever.  I don't see any chance he loses decisively.

In the Senate, I think Republicans will win a small majority but underperform in a year where they should have run up the score.  I'll start a new post again (in the Congress thread) on giving money and spreading the info to like minded people soon, before the clock runs out.  We need to do our part here and have no regrets.  Democrats have huge leads in money!

In the House, generic polling shows Democrats up by a whisker.  The breakeven used to be Dems +5 in pre-election polling but who knows.  This looks to be the biggest tragedy of 2024.  We can't and won't turn this country around without winning all three.  The House is obviously winnable; we have a (super slim) majority there now.  Because each Republican member has a mind of his or her own, it takes a significant majority to govern, where you can pass bills without Marjorie or Matt Gaetz if necessary.

Along the lines of the 2024 tragedy, it seems to me that Trump who does command great attention is neglecting his own coattails.  To his own peril.  I hope I'm wrong.

I like the (current) Speaker and I sympathize with the difficulty of keeping a fragile coalition together, but come on guys, where is a Contract with America?  Where is the agenda?  Where is a public, positive face and voice?

Maybe they know something I don't.  Maybe national agendas don't get local representatives in swing districts elected.  But seems to me, the lack of a specified mission is allowing your opponents to define you, and it isn't pretty.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2024, 07:22:44 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2024
« Reply #1766 on: September 24, 2024, 07:26:44 AM »
"I like the (current) Speaker and I sympathize with the difficulty of keeping a fragile coalition together, but come on guys, where is a Contract with America?  Where is the agenda?  Where is a public, positive face and voice?"


ccp

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polls
« Reply #1767 on: September 24, 2024, 10:34:40 AM »
Great question Doug.
A Contract with America would help define what the Congress if for.

A pollster noted that all the left wing pollsters["listers"] need to do is overweight their polls with women to get a desired artificial outcome for Harris .


ccp

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Police group endorsed Kamala
« Reply #1768 on: September 24, 2024, 01:29:52 PM »

DougMacG

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Gallup: 9 of 10 top issues favor Republicans (yet we can't build a lead)
« Reply #1769 on: September 25, 2024, 05:48:55 AM »
https://news.gallup.com/poll/651092/2024-election-environment-favorable-gop.aspx
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/3163950/gallup-shocker-gop-owns-nine-10-issues-election-trump-to-lose/

[Doug]  One crazy idea would be for Republicans to run on the issues.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
RCP: Harris' impossible task, making the Democratic Party’s progressive policies palatable to the American people.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/09/25/kamala_harris_impossible_challenge_151674.html

"The brazenness of their deception is breathtaking. Consider Harris’ refusal to meet the press. She’ll take softball questions from carefully selected local outlets but flatly refuses to hold unscripted press conferences that might include a few challenging questions. Her handlers’ apparent fear is that she will come across as incoherent – not because she is stupid, but because she has to say something, so long as it’s not the truth about her record and her party’s goals."
...
"We also know how Harris will govern. She will double down on Biden administration policies, including open borders, inflationary spending, piles of debt, and divisive rhetoric that have led the vast majority of voters to say we are on the wrong track."


God help us.

The issues also favored when Obama won - twice.

Vote.  Speak out.  Give money.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2024, 05:59:19 AM by DougMacG »


ccp

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DougMacG

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2024, set aside 90 minutes this Tues 9pm ET Oct 1 on SeeBS
« Reply #1772 on: September 27, 2024, 06:31:36 AM »
Just heard from Tom Emmer (R-MN) House GOP whip on local radio.  He is standing in for Walz in the JD Vance debate practice.  He says Vance is ready for the debate, ready to lay out the lies of the Harris campaign for all to see.

Remember that Kamala didn't want the campaign debate season to end with this debate in voters minds.

Vance will no doubt be confronted with Trump's and his own embellishments, but they need nothing but truth to point out superior economic and foreign policy records.

Harris is trying to hide both her previous positions and her true agenda.

For a skilled debater, this is a great setup.  I hope it goes well.

Once again it will be (at least) 3 against 1; there are no Trump supporters at CBS.  But I don't think Vance will be surprised or blindsided by anything they say.

Vance: “What we’re going to focus on is that I make as concise and direct appeal to the American people as possible about Donald Trump’s successful policies and Kamala Harris’ failed policies,” he added. “Kamala Harris’ record is one of unadorable groceries, unaffordable housing and Americans who are losing their jobs.”

https://nypost.com/2024/09/25/us-news/jd-vance-says-he-doesnt-have-to-prepare-that-much-for-vp-debate-against-walz/


ccp

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DougMacG

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Re: 2024
« Reply #1775 on: September 29, 2024, 06:54:23 AM »
A new poll of nearly 20,000 adults by YouGov and sponsored by the think tank Populace, found that a majority of Americans (58%) think that most people cannot share their honest opinions about sensitive topics.  More than six of 10 respondents said they have avoided saying things that they believe because others might find them offensive.

While 36% of Democrats and 14% of Republicans publicly say they trust the government to tell the truth, just 5% and 2% agree with this statement privately.

59% of Americans think there is too much government control in America, but only 50% say so publicly – with Democrats far more likely to conceal that view:
 
Defunding the police is a good example of an issue where Americans are afraid to say what they believe. While 28% of Gen Zers and 27% of Democrats say they support the movement, in reality just 2% and 3% privately agree.

Most of the apparent partisan gap on school choice is a result of liberals and independents concealing their support for it:
 
It's another example of the hypocrisy of the left who say they support "tolerance of other people's opinions," but they have created an environment in which many Americans feel a need to self-censor their views.


(Doug) A month until the election. Polls are tied. The last question to be answered is how big is the poll bias? And how well are polls correcting for that.

It takes 20 tries for a poll taker to get 1 response in the world of poll taking after landlines disappeared. 5% response rate, and in all other elections Trump voters and Republican voters have been least likely to speak up to a stranger.

Let's hope this margin is lsrgr enough to overcome the media bias, the institutional bias and the mail in, drop off, no ID cheat factors in the Presidential, House and Senate.

My hope is for a clear victory with a mandate. My prediction is divided results continuing the mess of a mess we have right now.

ccp

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Byron York - Hispanic voters and Republican Party
« Reply #1776 on: September 30, 2024, 10:41:21 AM »
Trump is doing much better than Romney ever did.

How could that be when he is strong against Illegal immigration?

Well, the autopsy helps explain it:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/daily-memo/3171241/trump-numbers-gop-went-wrong-immigration/



ccp

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Re: 2024
« Reply #1778 on: October 01, 2024, 07:13:17 AM »
This suggests if she were President she will only work half a day and take weekly vacations like her mentor.

Where was the little Vanderbilt CNN partisan in Asheville?
Yelling and screaming for the President to do something like he/she did with Katrina.

I have a relative who lives in Asheville.
Had to saw his way out of his driveway to get to a phone or cell tower to call his family to let them know he is alive.
No power, no cell towers, no water, no internet.

Just mud and trees all over.

Hope CD was safe on other side of NC.

« Last Edit: October 01, 2024, 07:51:41 AM by ccp »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2024
« Reply #1779 on: October 01, 2024, 07:16:00 AM »
A strong storm here for one afternoon such as we often have.

Local folks are rallying rescue aid packages-- even pack mules!

Crafty_Dog

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Trump calls for more protection
« Reply #1780 on: October 01, 2024, 08:56:57 AM »

Body-by-Guinness

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The Tik Tok Prez
« Reply #1781 on: October 01, 2024, 10:58:33 AM »
Savage, timely, and accurate new Trump ad:

https://x.com/yashar/status/1841172660312817861

Body-by-Guinness

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DougMacG

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2024, I wonder if this is true...
« Reply #1783 on: October 01, 2024, 03:00:09 PM »
One month to go and the election already underway, a number of good signs are emerging.

1. Sean Trende, who is about the best at poll and trend reading in these timed, said today that undecideds appear to be breaking to Trump. It's in a link I put in the Senate/Congress thread this am.

2. Trump and R's are polling much better with certain demographic groups than in recent times.  Hispanics, Blacks, Jews.  I'm waiting for good news with gays and lesbians next - if we have to break people into groups.

3. Trump has beat the polls in all previous outings.  Republicans usually breakeven in the House at generic ballot D+5.

4.  Issues polling has R's and the good side of about 80% of the big issues, economic and foreign policy mainly.

5.  The Dem abortion card has been overplayed IMHO.  The public is in between the extremes of no abortions and no restrictions.  The Dems doubled down on the extremes while most Republicans support reasonable time limits and reasonable extremists.  The famous overrule they keep citing only sent it back to the states, back to the people.

6. And now THIS from Gallup:


https://www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2024/09/Screenshot-2024-09-30-at-4.15.43-PM.png
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/09/gop-rising.php
(Shoot, the chart didn't post.)

The voters just turned Republican, 48-45, for the first time.

Through all this.  Polls are still tied and key races still need your help.  Everyone needs your vote.


DougMacG

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2024, Vice Presidential debate, Vance, Walz
« Reply #1784 on: October 01, 2024, 10:03:29 PM »
I watched it after the fact:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/10/01/watch_live_jd_vance_vs_tim_walz_vice_presidential_debate_hosted_by_cbs_news.html

I thought JD Vance was masterful. Ready for everything that came his way. Stuck with some themes without being repetitive. Made a very persuasive case.

Likewise I thought Tim Walz made as good of a case as he could with facts that mostly go against him.


I wonder what others thought of Walz. Recent history says Minnesota politicians don't have much appeal outside the state.

Walz trumpeted the greatness of MN perhaps too much, since that's not the issue, leaving out that the trend lines are all in the wrong direction under his leadership.

Vance declined to attack any part of Walz' record, keeping his focus on Harris and painting her as the incumbent who already had plenty of time to implement her ideas and failed.

DougMacG

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Re: 2024, Vice Presidential debate, Vance, Walz, WSJ
« Reply #1785 on: October 02, 2024, 04:47:45 AM »
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/vance-walz-vice-presidential-debate-election-2024?st=5j49iZ

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance of Ohio concluded their first and only debate the way it began–with a handshake. The tone of the event was sharp at times, but it was generally substantive, policy-focused and without personal attacks. The first and only major run-in with moderators happened about a half hour into the debate.

Here’s what to know:

The running mates focused on attacking their opposing presidential nominees. Vance spoke confidently and clearly, while Walz had a tougher time finding his footing.

The senator spoke candidly about his differences with Donald Trump. Vance addressed his prior criticisms, saying he was initially “wrong” about the former president. Later, he deflected when asked if he supported Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen.

Both candidates spoke to their stances on abortion. Walz defended his record as Minnesota governor, while Vance followed the Trump campaign’s lead in searching for a middle ground on the issue. Meanwhile, on Truth Social, Trump committed to vetoing a national abortion ban.

Asked if they would support or oppose a pre-emptive strike on Iran by Israel, both candidates cited Israel’s right to defend itself without directly answering the question.

Vance and Walz each voiced sympathy for those affected by Hurricane Helene, but sparred over the role of climate change.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2024
« Reply #1786 on: October 02, 2024, 05:40:10 AM »
Overall, I was seriously impressed with Vance, particularly in the first half of the debate.  SUPER bright, masterful in his reframings, deeply well informed, etc etc.

That said, I thought him weak on the gun issue-- I would have pointed out that the people in the border regions need serious firepower to defend their ranches.  I would have pointed out that rifles are a small percentage of homicides. 

I thought him weak on the J6 line of attack, which he had to know was coming.   I would have used it to pivot to the underlying issue being the Dems fierce campaign to sabotage vote integrity leading to the American people distrusting the outcomes.  I would have spoken of the distortion of Congressional apportionment leading to some 15 more Dem seats in the House.  I would have spoken of looking to pack the vote with undocumented voters, etc etc.

On the abortion issue I thought he could have done better.

Overall though he served his cause and ours well.

ccp

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Re: 2024
« Reply #1787 on: October 02, 2024, 06:14:24 AM »
" I thought him weak on the J6 line of attack, which he had to know was coming.   I would have used it to pivot to the underlying issue being the Dems fierce campaign to sabotage vote integrity leading to the American people distrusting the outcomes.  "

yes 600 lawyers descended to multiple states to be sure every single vote rule was changed , sometimes against State Constitutions to make it easier to collect ballots many with no IDs etc  and sure enough we went to bed seeing Trump was ahead and woke up to find 10s of thousands of ballots mysteriously show up and get counted and Biden is not ahead in all those same red states.

and hell yeah , of course any objective observer would be suspicious.   

I though Vance is was very good ,  should humility unlike Trump , very smart and has the gift of gab unlike Harris,
but I too noticed a few times I thought he left out a few things I thought important though I don't remember what now.

NO coincidence they DNC biased referees saved 1/6 for last. 


DougMacG

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2024, The Reviews: Walz failed miserably,
« Reply #1788 on: October 02, 2024, 11:07:30 AM »

"Vance delivered in spades. From the opening bell, Walz was nervous, overmatched and out of his depth, especially when dealing with foreign policy matters such as the ongoing attacks on Israel."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/opinion-jd-vance-won-debate-035717432.html

Frank Luntz fous group:  Vance won.
https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1841310671281197280

Walz "rattled"
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/3173083/vance-shows-softer-side-walz-appears-rattled-during-midwest-make-nice-vp-debate/

Walz put on a Master Class against Walz and the biased media.  - Megyn Kelly
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/10/01/megyn_kelly_jd_vance_put_on_a_masterclass_in_how_to_handle_biased_moderators_and_a_lying_opponent_thank_god.html

Walz "Flubbed it", (Left) Standard
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/tim-walz-jd-vance-vice-presidential-debate-b1185413.html

WSJ: Vance makes a better case for Trump than Trump does.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/vp-debate-jd-vance-tim-walz-cbs-2024-election-519c8d37?st=ZZnEo7

MSN: ‘I’m a Knucklehead’: Walz Gives Disastrous Answer When Questioned on Inaccurate Claims at Debate
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/i-m-a-knucklehead-walz-gives-disastrous-answer-when-questioned-on-inaccurate-claims-at-debate/ar-AA1ryxwa

Tim Walz loses his bubble wrap
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/tim-walz-loses-his-bubble-wrap/

JD Vance Did a Great Job Against Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan. “Vance has mastered every aspect of the political game very quickly. Despite all of the babysitting by the moderators, Walz looked like he was on the precipice of a panic attack all night.”
https://pjmedia.com/stephen-kruiser/2024/10/02/the-morning-briefing-jd-vance-did-a-great-job-against-norah-odonnell-and-margaret-brennan-n4932982

This one written before the debate:
Harris has worst in a generation Democrat support from working class.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/09/30/cnns_enten_trump_is_up_17_points_among_non-white_non-college_educated_voters_from_2020.html

Dessert:  Harris was sleep deprived when she picked Walz.
https://nypost.com/2024/09/30/us-news/kamala-harris-says-insomnia-hit-after-biden-dropped-out-was-sleep-deprived-the-day-of-walz-pick/

A good night for the GOP
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/10/a-good-night-for-the-gop.php

[Doug]  I am encouraged.

ccp

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but we will NEVER get a fair shake from MSM
« Reply #1789 on: October 02, 2024, 12:04:06 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/01/politics/vp-debate-takeaways-vance-walz/index.html

CBS claimed it was "dull".

They didn't have Trump's antics to kick around this time.



Body-by-Guinness

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A Poll of the Polls
« Reply #1790 on: October 02, 2024, 12:25:23 PM »
A comprehensive look on what various polling and other data bode:

Where Things Stand.
A jumbo edition of 'Polls in One Place'.
JOHN ELLIS
OCT 02, 2024
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This post first ran on our sister Substack newsletter, Political News Items. We’ve decided to make it available to News Items subscribers as well.

From time to time, people ask me about “the state of the race” for president. This is the first of two parts of my answer. It is analysis, not opinion.

You can subscribe to Political News Items by clicking on this link. It’s a special offer for News Items subscribers: 25% off the list price. Sources say it is the deal of the century.

The polls have it tied in the seven so-called battleground states that will decide the outcome of the presidential election in the Electoral College. Those seven states are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. If you click on the hyperlinks, you’ll see a statistical tie in all seven.

It’s close nationally as well, although I think it is safe to say that Vice President Harris will win the national popular vote by at least 4 million votes, based on past results (Clinton won by 3 million votes in 2016, Biden won by 7 million votes in 2020). If she loses the popular vote, she will lose all seven battleground states.

One way to look at presidential election campaigns is to ignore the candidates and explore the political environment. How the electorate sees “the big picture” doesn’t necessarily determine how this or that “persuadable” voter will vote. But it’s hard to win if you’re swimming against the tide, and the tide is going out on the Biden-Harris administration. Whether it takes Kamala Harris with it isn’t certain. It wouldn’t be a surprise.

Let’s review the bidding:

1. Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?

Right track: 30%

Wrong direction: 60%

(Source: nytimes.com)

2. NBC News:

The latest NBC News national poll finds 65% of registered voters surveyed earlier this month say the country is on the wrong track, while 28% say it’s on the right track.  The figure is one of the “warning signs” for Democrats ahead of November, said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll along with GOP pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.  “While the wrong track data is now under 70% for the first time since September 2022, it is still a terrible 65% for the party in power,” Horwitt said. “Related, the cost of living remains the dominant issue, and the share of voters who say their family’s income is falling behind is the highest we have recorded at 66%.” Views of the countries’ direction do fall along party lines, with 92% of Republicans saying the country is on the wrong track, compared to 36% of Democrats and 70% of independents.  McInturff pointed to the pessimism about the country’s direction as one of the factors explaining the relatively low levels of enthusiasm about the election. Asked to rate their interest in the election on a scale of one to 10, 65% marked themselves a 10, or “very interested” in the election. That is a 10-point drop from the same point in the 2020 election. (Source: nbcnews.com, italics mine)

3. Key Measures of the 2024 President Election Environment:

Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party. Chief among these are Republican advantages in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office.


(Source: news.gallup.com)

4. Here’s a significant sidebar from the Gallup survey:

Nearly identical percentages of U.S. adults rate Donald Trump (46%) and Kamala Harris (44%) favorably in Gallup’s latest Sept. 3-15 poll, during which the candidates debated for the first time. Both candidates, however, have higher unfavorable than favorable ratings. Trump’s unfavorable rating is seven percentage points higher than his favorable score, and Harris’ is 10 points higher.

Harris’ bump in favorability after her unexpected nomination as the Democratic presidential nominee has moderated somewhat, while Trump’s favorability is up five points since last month, returning to the level he was at in June.

Despite the overall negative tilt in favorability, both candidates enjoy nearly unanimous positive ratings from their own party faithful and negligible positivity from the opposing party. While majorities of independents view Trump and Harris unfavorably, the former president holds a favorability edge over the current vice president with the group -- 44% vs. 35%, respectively.

Here’s the chart.


(Source: news.gallup.com)

Assuming this poll is accurate (and we do), the fact that 60% of Independents have an “unfavorable” opinion of Vice President Harris is surprising. If that number doesn’t improve, her path to victory is vertical. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by 9 percentage points (52%-43%) among Independents, according to Pew Research.

“Favorability”, of course, doesn’t necessarily translate as preference. You can have an unfavorable view of Trump and still vote for Trump. The same is true for Harris. That said, for a Harris supporter, 35% favorable among Independents is an unhappy number. (Source: pewresearch.org)

5. This from The New York Times:

Voters across the Sun Belt say that Donald J. Trump improved their lives when he was president — and worry that a Kamala Harris White House would not — setting the stage for an extraordinarily competitive contest in three key states, according to the latest polls from The New York Times and Siena College.

The polls found that Mr. Trump has gained a lead in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia, two states that he lost to President Biden in 2020. But in North Carolina, which has not voted for a Democrat since 2008, Ms. Harris trails Mr. Trump by just a narrow margin.

The polls of these three states, taken from Sept. 17 to 21, presented further evidence that in a sharply divided nation, the presidential contest is shaping up to be one of the tightest in history.

“Setting the stage for an extraordinarily competitive contest in three key states” is one way to describe these results for Team Blue. Another way to look at it is: Former President Trump has had bad week after bad week for more than a month now and, according to this poll, remains the favorite to win Arizona, Georgia and (maybe) North Carolina. Imagine where he’ll be if he stops trying to lose the election.

6. Basic facts regarding immigration:

The U.S. immigrant population has grown sharply over the decades, from 9.6 million in 1970 to 31.1 million in 2000 and almost 48 million in 2023. These totals account for immigrants in the country both legally and illegally.

Immigrants make up about 14.3% of the nation’s population, a near-record high. They are dispersed across all states and metro areas. And nearly three-quarters of registered voters say they know someone who was born outside of the United States, according to the survey. (Source: pewresearch.org)

7. Fact Sheet, U.S. Department of Homeland Security:

On September 25, Patrick J. Lechleitner — ICE’s deputy director and de facto acting head — sent a bombshell letter to Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) and 22 other House members revealing that 425,431 convicted criminals — including thousands of murderers and sex offenders — and 222,000-plus other aliens facing criminal charges are on the agency’s non-detained docket of removable aliens, known to the agency but at large in the United States……

As of July 21, more than 13,000 aliens convicted of homicide, 15,811 convicted of sexual assault, 9,461 convicted of other “sex offenses”, 851 convicted of kidnapping, nearly 3,400 convicted of weapon offenses, 2,000-plus convicted of robbery, 4,627 convicted of forgery, 56,533 with dangerous drugs convictions, 14,301 burglars, and 62,231 aliens convicted of assault are all on ICE’s docket of non-detained aliens.

That doesn’t count hundreds of thousands of other convicted criminal aliens free to roam around the country (including one convicted of some unspecified “civil rights” offense), nor does it include more than 222,000 others still facing criminal charges for homicide (1,845), sexual assault (4,250), robbery (2,039), kidnapping (851), forgery (4,627), and myriad other charges. (Sources: homeland.house.gov, Andrew Arthur, cis.org)

8. The New York Times:

Last year over 70,000 Americans died from taking drug mixtures that contained fentanyl or other synthetic opioids. The good news is that recent data suggests a decline in overdose deaths, the first significant drop in decades. But this is not a uniform trend across the nation. To understand this disparity, it’s important to examine how we got here.

Today’s crisis is often described as a series of waves. But if you look at the data, it was more like a couple of breakers followed by a tsunami. First, prescription opioid fatalities rose. Then heroin deaths surged. And finally, illicitly manufactured fentanyl overtook all that preceded it.

Once fentanyl and other synthetic opioids dominate a market, whether a state is red or blue doesn't matter. Skyrocketing overdose deaths are nearly unavoidable, regardless of whether a state enforces tough penalties for drug possession or decriminalizes it.

Understanding how fentanyl saturated the drug supply, moving from the East Coast of the United States to the West, is critical to ending the worst drug crisis in American history. (Source: nytimes.com)

9. Fentanyl isn’t an abstract “issue”:

More than 40 percent of Americans know someone who has died of a drug overdose and about one-third of those individuals say their lives were disrupted by the death, according to a new RAND study.

Analyzing a national representative survey of American adults, researchers found that the lifetime exposure to an overdose death is more common among women than men, married participants than unmarried participants, U.S.-born participants than immigrants, and those who live in urban settings as compared to those in rural settings.

Rates of exposure were significantly higher in New England (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont) and in the East South Central region (Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee) than in other parts of the nation.

The findings were published by the American Journal of Public Health. (Source: rand.org)

10. Immigration.


The “decreased” number has exploded. (Source: news.gallup.com)

11. Mass Deportation:

A majority of Americans support the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, according to a new Scripps News/Ipsos survey.

Fifty-four percent of respondents said they “strongly” or "somewhat support” the policy, including 86% of Republicans, 58% of independents, and 25% of Democrats.

The poll, which focuses on the most talked about immigration policies of the 2024 campaign, showcases major partisan divides between voters on how to address one of the biggest topics of the presidential race.

Thirty-nine percent of respondents called immigration a top issue for them this campaign, second only to inflation, which topped the list at 57%. Trump has a ten-point advantage on who respondents think will do a better job handling immigration (44%-34%). (Source: scrippsnews.com, italics mine)

12. Hispanics moving Red.

The economic woes from inflation look to have accelerated a shift of Latino voters toward Republicans, cutting in half a Democratic lead with a critical voting group in the lead up to a tight presidential election, according to an NBC/CNBC/Telemundo survey.

The survey of 1,000 Latino registered voters found the Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, leading the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, by 54% to 40%. That’s considerably less than the 36-point lead that President Joe Biden enjoyed in the run-up to the 2020 election. Biden’s advantage was almost half again the 50-point lead that Hillary Clinton held over Trump in 2016, suggesting a longer-term trend that shows Latinos in the Democratic camp but in diminishing numbers.

“There’s an intensity around these issues that is quite striking,″ said Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, senior vice president at Hart Research, the Democratic pollsters for the survey. “The cost of living and inflation is really what is informing a lot of the way that people are thinking about economy and the economic future of the country.”

The survey was conducted from Sept. 15 through Sept. 23 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. (Source: cnbc.com)

13. Pennsylvania:

Vice President Harris and former President Trump are locked in a tight race in Pennsylvania, mostly unchanged since July. This despite the array of newsworthy events since then, including the Democratic National Convention, a presidential debate, and a second Trump assassination attempt.

The new Fox News survey of Pennsylvania voters finds Harris narrowly ahead of Trump by 2 points (50-48%) among registered voters, while the race is tied at 49% each among likely voters.

The July results, conducted shortly after President Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, but before she was conclusively the nominee, were deadlocked at 49% each. But even in March, when Biden was the presumed nominee, the contest was close to even….

The economy is the top issue for voters this election and most Pennsylvanians have a negative view of the economy (71%).

More voters think Trump can better handle the economy than Harris by 6 points.  Still, that’s half the advantage he had on the issue in April (+12 points over Biden).

Trump does best on immigration and border security (+17) and is also more trusted to make the country safer (+5). (Source: foxnews.com, italics mine)

14: Pennsylvania registations:

Although Pennsylvania has more registered Democrats than Republicans the gap has narrowed from a 51-37 split in 2008 to 44-40 today. Last week, Republicans added 12,600 more people to their list, compared with about 8,000 for the Democrats. All told, Republicans have added a net 135,000 people this year and the Democrats just 38,000. (Source: ft.com)

15. Michigan:

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI.) warned donors last week that internal polling for her Senate campaign shows Vice President Kamala Harris is "underwater" in Michigan, according to a video clip obtained by Axios. Winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is Harris' simplest path to victory. If former President Trump sweeps the Sun Belt, he'd only need to pick off one of those Blue Wall states to win the election. "I'm not feeling my best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan," Slotkin said during a virtual fundraiser on Wednesday with Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), according to a recording. "We have her underwater in our polling," Slotkin added. (Source: axios.com)

16. Wisconsin:

With less than 40 days until Election Day, the race is essentially tied in Michigan, with Ms. Harris receiving 48 percent support among likely voters and Mr. Trump garnering 47 percent — well within the poll’s margin of error. In Wisconsin, a state where polls have a history of overstating support for Democrats, Ms. Harris holds 49 percent to Mr. Trump’s 47 percent. (Source: nytimes.com)

17. Gender:

The public views gender as a larger threat to Kamala Harris’ campaign than they did in 2016 during Hillary Clinton’s campaign. About 4 in 10 adults think the fact that Harris is a woman will hurt her, while a third think it will help her and a quarter don’t believe it will make a difference. In August 2016, more said Clinton’s gender would be an asset than a threat, with 37% saying that it would help compared with 29% who said it would hurt. A third believed it would not make a difference.

Perspectives have also shifted on whether Donald Trump’s gender will help or hinder his campaign. Compared to 2016, more people now believe that his gender will help him (41% vs. 28%). Similar to 2016, only about 1 in 10 believe his gender will hurt him. (Source: apnorc.org)

Part Two will survey the surveys for signs that point to a Harris victory or, more accurately, Trump’s defeat.

https://substack.news-items.com/p/where-things-stand

ccp

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CNN and rest of MSM
« Reply #1791 on: October 02, 2024, 05:50:52 PM »
Bombshell shyster report  .

 :roll: :roll:

Smith says crimes were committed and Trump was private not President.

CNN's Vanderbilt doing his Democrat duty to blanket the screen with this non news or made up news.




Crafty_Dog

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Jonah Goldberg
« Reply #1792 on: October 03, 2024, 05:06:41 AM »

ccp

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Jonah Goldberg
« Reply #1793 on: October 03, 2024, 05:36:47 AM »
In this vein I had to say it was a real pleasure listening to the brilliant JD who was polite respectful calm and logical succinct and rattling dizzyingly reasonable arguments and one of the things I thought of ( as I am sure everyone else) was what a f'k'g pleasure not to hear name calling, belittling, you suck, I am the greatest in history stuff.

I don't agree with his assertion "leaders" (whoever that may be - does this include him?)
should not back Trump.  It is not up to him it is up to the voters and he won decisively in the primaries.

I don't think he ever recognizes or explains how so many support such a man as DJT and how we got here and RINOs like him failed us for 35 yrs.  I don't recall him every really addressing this.  Only he hates Trump.

I don't know if it is the end of America but it certainly could be the end of the Republican Party if Trump loses.
At least for a while.


DougMacG

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Re: Jonah Goldberg
« Reply #1794 on: October 03, 2024, 06:57:44 AM »
JG has strong credentials as an anti-trumper.  That said, as described by him, some of Trump's rhetoric here is wildly inappropriate.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/jonah-goldberg-the-political-strategy-behind-donald-trump-s-increasingly-dark-and-disturbing-rhetoric/ar-AA1rBbOK?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=c9b4281c871f48b58aab9b96d24249f5&ei=12

Some comments on the latest Jonah Goldberg piece:

1. I'm glad you posted in.  We currently lack opponents on the forum and need to see and discuss other views.

Excerpt of his thesis:
"Beyond the usual nonsense about America ceasing to exist if he loses...  Stop there for a moment...

2.  America AS WE KNOW IT will cease to exist if we lose the 'trifecta' of President, House and Senate for too long of a period, and 2-4 years or more may be long enough to lose it. And then goes the judiciary.

A lot of what they do we can't undo. It only keeps going in their direction, with a slight pause when Republicans win a term such as Trump's first term. 

Examples: Private health care as an industry is disappearing. Election integrity, gone.  Just the idea of having a national election day, gone.  Progressivity in tax rates moves only to steeper.  Any thought of making the slope gentler is tax cuts for the rich and treated labeled just as "vile" as any description Trump used on illegal migrants.  Spending only goes up.  Entitlements only go up.  Deficits only go up.  Government control over your life only goes up.  Republican wins can only pause or temporarily pause it.  Any correction is a threat.

First amendment, gone under their rule.  Does Jonah need examples of that?  Read the Matt Taibbi articles on the coordination between our agencies and Big Tech to shut down dissenting opinion.  It happened!  They shut down the POTUS on his chosen venue, they spied on him, they falsified affidavits to do that, they paralyzed his first two years in office and they have tried to jail him.  These aren't overstatements.  It all already happened and they promise to do worse.

The Second amendment will be gone.  Need that spelled out?  I can't shoot a rodent in a Dem controlled city, how are we going to lawfully form a militia for when the government turns on us, or foreign power invades?

What else, illegal searches and seizures are back, witness Mar a Lago.  How many Trump officials had their homes raided at dawn for alleged crimes that Biden himself and his family and team have also committed?  I already fear putting my name out there as part of the opposition.

Filibuster, gone.  The US Senate as the world's greatest deliberative body, gone.  The Senate will be run like a Nancy Pelosi House with the power in the center, not back in the district or state.

Two new states, in.  Washington DC and Puerto Rico.  Dem Control of the Senate?  Permanent.  That's the plan and the open border is part of it.  They plan to flip Texas and on it goes.

Electoral college, gone.  Who wins California, wins the US.  Want me to go on about governance of California?  Ever heard of taxes and regulations run amok?  Look there.

End of the US Dollar as we know it.  Is that far-fetched??  It has lost 80% of its value in my adult lifetime - and I'm not that old!!  They spend 40% more than they take in.  Any cut is labeled end of the world, hating the elderly etc.

Border?  Gone.  They say it openly, then make a head fake to win the close elections. The motive is clear and it's all political.

Judiciary and constitutional law as we know it, gone.

Our ready military, gone.  Peace through strength, gone.  What is the working theory other than peace through strength that will protect us and the world?  None.  Peace is gone.  Look around, Middle East, Ukraine, Russia, China, Taiwan.  Without American strength, all three of these wars will grow and spread.  Got another theory?  Wishful thinking?  Appeasement?  Apology tour?  Sorry, doesn't work.

Kamala actually wants to expand and continue the Ukraine war AFTER the weakness they displayed set it off.

Add to that, your daughters will be drafted into combat, and men in the girls' room.  End of girls sports as we know it.  "Equality".

What part of America as we know it will be gone does Jonah not understand?

3. Back to the Jonah transcript:
..."he [Trump] called immigrants here illegally “vile animals” and “monsters” who “will walk into your kitchen, they’ll cut your throat.”

Everyone knows he means, 'among them are ...'  Everyone here wishes he would speak more precisely, more accurately.  I would like to win every argument with the so-called fact checkers, but Trump does cross that line and it costs us votes, votes of many friends of mine who can't handle his rhetoric.

But to the substance:  Out of 25 million coming in, a half million are known criminals.  That's only one of fifty, 98% are not known criminals, but it's a half million too many, enough to destroy our cities and our nation. 9/11 took only 9 hijackers and the capability is even greater now. The nature of having a criminal cartel control the border instead of the US government is empowering crime and has reverse vetting.  The bad ones get in for sure and the good ones maybe not.  A HUGE number are raped and abused.  Who is doing the rape, does anyone wonder?  Does anyone care?  Is anyone investigating it?  Prosecuting?  Or are we a lawless third world country or worse in places?  Now every state is a border state.  The southern border is an issue in Montana, see the Senate debate there.  Check the map to see how absurd this has become.  Montana has a 550 mile northern border.

Which matters more, rhetoric or substance?

Border Patrol (generally) knows the difference between families coming in and military aged men coming, or men coming in with abducted families.  But they're all treated the same, here is a court date and off you go.

4.  Trump haters take Trump literally but not seriously.  Trump supporters take Trump seriously but not literally.  Everyone here cringes when he espouses over the top rhetoric and we generally call him out on it. 

I define support for a politician backwards.  I have a set of principles.  I know what policies I favor and what direction I want the country to go.  At each level I decide who represents those best.   Vance was very careful not to overstate, embellish or use inflaming rhetoric.  We all wish Trump would use a filter and be more like that.  During the debate I noticed amazingly good qualities in Vance and I also noticed he is not from my wing of the Republican party, nor is Trump.  But at the core of it, they will move the country in the right direction (to me) and the threat (to me) from the other side is as dangerous as I stated above. We will lose America as we knew it.

What Goldberg doesn't see in that or agree with is up to him, but where is the rest of his one-sided analysis, the over the top rhetoric of the Left which is on every network, every hour, every 'news' show.  Worse than their over the top rhetoric is when they speak the language of moderation (in the swing districts and states) and then govern to the extreme.

5. The fear mongering of how bad Trump made more sense before he served four years as President than it does after we just had four years of each to compare.  Do the comparison!

6.  I thought Jonah Goldberg was at National Review.  What happened to his tenure there and what happened to National Review.  They used to be the best or among the best sources of conservative thought.  What part of conservative thought leads you to undermining Republican candidates and electing Hillary, Biden, Harris?  His departure from there was too little, too late.  For one thing they lost Victor Davis Hanson during their Trump Derangement phase.

7.  I opposed Trump being the Republican nominee at least 2 of the 3 times.  But at least my party had primaries and honored the result.  Not so on the other side, for all their talk to the contrary.  Who picked Kamala (the cabal behind some hidden curtain) and who picked Walz? Not a person who won a primary much less a national contest. Nobody knows who controls them but it wasn't the voters out in the primaries, the districts and the states who gave them power.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2024, 07:40:16 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: 2024
« Reply #1795 on: October 03, 2024, 07:21:02 AM »
Well said!

ccp

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Re: 2024
« Reply #1796 on: October 03, 2024, 07:48:00 AM »
Bottom line.

I wish people like Jonah would spend more time bashing the real enemy - the LEFT - as he does DJT.
[but then he would not get the CNN gig.

Stupid ass   :x  - we are losing, as pointed out by Doug, because of faux Rs like him who have been allowing the LEFT to walk all over us for decades.

Trump was the first to fight back albeit too clumsily costing us hard fought ground in the fight. 

ccp

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Leftist The Hill accuses Netanyahu of influencing the US election
« Reply #1797 on: October 04, 2024, 05:43:20 AM »
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-suspect-netanyahu-of-attempting-to-tilt-trump-harris-race/ar-AA1rGZXB?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=8110ea431b574fc4b20ad5ea455530ee&ei=20

Funny,

I am thinking the opposite.

Hamas attacked 10/7 while Biden/Harris were still in office.
Biden/Harris keep undermining Israel because they are worried about the Muslim vote.
Biden/Harris have done all they can do to help defeat Netanyahu in Israeli elections.
Biden/Harris continue to publicly undermine his offensive strategy.


Crafty_Dog

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