https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/09/biden-vs-trump-by-the-numbers.phpJohn Hinderaker
BIDEN VS. TRUMP, BY THE NUMBERS
The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday on its own extensive poll on Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The article begins:
Voters overwhelmingly think President Biden is too old to run for re-election and give him low marks for handling the economy and other issues important to their vote, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll that offers a stark warning to the 80-year-old incumbent ahead of the 2024 contest.
Specifically:
73% of voters said they feel Biden is too old to seek a second term, compared with 47% of voters who said the same of the 77-year-old Trump. Two-thirds of Democrats said Biden was too old to run again.
Emphasis added. And, remarkably, only 36% of respondents think Biden is “mentally up for the job.”
Biden also scores poorly on the issues. He is under water on the economy, 37%/59%, with respondents saying the economy has gotten worse rather than better in the last two years by 58%/28%. Biden is under water on inflation and the cost of living, 34%/63%, and on the border, 30%/63%.
So voters think Biden is too old to run, isn’t mentally capable of being president, and has done a terrible job on the economy and the border. With those numbers he can’t possibly be re-elected, right?
Wrong, if he runs against Donald Trump. The Journal poll finds the two men tied at 46%/46%, despite Biden’s horrific drawbacks. Why? Voters think Biden is more likable and more honest, and a lot of them think Trump is too old and not up to the job, either. And, of course, a great number of them simply hate Trump, for various reasons.
Also, if you wonder how Biden can possibly be competitive, part of the answer is that Democrats don’t care about the same things you do:
Democrats plan to rally supporters behind issues such as abortion rights, which proved a key factor in the party outperforming expectations in the 2022 midterm elections. Abortion was the top priority among Democrats in the Journal poll, with 16% naming it as the issue most important to their 2024 vote, ahead of the economy and climate, which each stood at 12%
Now that abortion has been returned to the states, it makes no sense for it to be your number one priority in a presidential candidate. Nevertheless, this is where we are.
But here is the point: the Democrats aren’t going to nominate Joe Biden. They are just hoping he can limp through the next year so they don’t have to deal with Kamala Harris. Gavin Newsom is 25 years younger than Biden, isn’t burdened with Biden’s record in office or his growing scandals, and is a far more plausible demagogue and liar than Biden. If nominated, as I think he will be, and if Trump is the GOP nominee, Newsom will crush him. The only Democrat against whom Trump can run a competitive race is Joe Biden. If Newsom or another lesser-known figure is the Democrats’ nominee, Republicans can only hope that our current red state/blue state polarization insulates us against a 1964-style rout, although the House would surely be lost.
The Democrats have long been known as the Evil Party, while Republicans are the Stupid Party. In 2024, I expect the Democrats to continue being evil, but they won’t be stupid. Let’s hope the Republicans aren’t stupid either.
