Author Topic: 2024  (Read 171151 times)

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 72241
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1900 on: November 02, 2024, 12:48:03 PM »
Oy , , ,

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1901 on: November 02, 2024, 01:11:36 PM »
He couldn't just stick to the script for 3 more days...

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19748
    • View Profile

Body-by-Guinness

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 3226
    • View Profile
Harris Running Contradictory Ads Re Israel in PA & MI
« Reply #1903 on: November 03, 2024, 07:31:23 AM »
As well as some selective editing:

https://x.com/kfile/status/1852513884600472046?s=61

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
Re: Harris Running Contradictory Ads Re Israel in PA & MI
« Reply #1904 on: November 03, 2024, 07:48:03 AM »
As well as some selective editing:

https://x.com/kfile/status/1852513884600472046?s=61

I thought she was supposed to be the integrity candidate.

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
Re: stunt time for Kamala
« Reply #1905 on: November 03, 2024, 07:51:05 AM »
https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2024/11/02/watch-harris-makes-snl-cameo/

I watched.  She was all smiles and giggles.  The lady who has been angrily calling Trump Hitler and his supporters Nazis.

The whole program was a Democrat voting commercial.

It was a violation of FCC rules:

https://thehill.com/homenews/4968217-fcc-commissioner-claims-harris-on-snl-violates-equal-time-rule/amp/

But rules don't affect them.

SNL used to be considered comedy. 

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19748
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1906 on: November 03, 2024, 08:35:51 AM »
"But rules don't affect them."

Yes, the SSS only work in one direction.


ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19748
    • View Profile
Anyone here think who is going to win
« Reply #1907 on: November 03, 2024, 09:39:05 AM »
any predictions?

me = >  I have no idea, but I am leaning a tiny bit towards Harris because I am more of a pessimist then optimist at heart.   And I never underestimate the amount of fraud underway.


Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 72241
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1908 on: November 03, 2024, 03:20:29 PM »
IMHO, if vote is honest, then Trump wins.

If not too big to rig, then the claim will be Harris wins.   

Question presented:  Who blinks?

ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1146
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1909 on: November 03, 2024, 04:35:17 PM »
Have been working on election worksheet for months, evaluating polls. I have 326 EV's for Trump. All swing states to Trump, Minn to Harris and NH and Virginia to Trump.

Am not counting the Trump undercounting issue. If Trump voters undercounted in polls by 4% or so, then somewhere about 410.
PPulatie

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
Re: Anyone here think who is going to win
« Reply #1910 on: November 03, 2024, 04:36:29 PM »
I've lost all my optimism over the last few days. I'm back to just a wait and see, anxious feeling, bracing myself for winning and for losing.

To me, a big win is to win the Presidency, House, most of the contested Senate seats, plus the popular vote.  As I write that it feels like words I will have to eat.

A loss would be to win the Senate at only 51 or 52 and lose the rest. Divided government with everything stacked against us.

The problem (one problem) with losing is that the table has never been set better for us. Yet I would rate our strategy and messaging at maybe a 1 out of 10.

They run even with us when they have almost no cards in their hand.

PS. I like pp's answer better than mine.

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 72241
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1911 on: November 04, 2024, 05:21:47 AM »
There is a riff about intelligence being the ability to hold mutually exclusive thoughts at the same time.

If I have this right, then we all be fg geniuses!

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19748
    • View Profile
Harris refused to admit she voted against Cal. prop 36
« Reply #1912 on: November 04, 2024, 07:37:32 AM »
https://www.westernjournal.com/kamala-refuses-answer-voting-key-cali-crime-measure-sunday-election/

but she is a real heavy weight in fighting "transnational" organized crime.

though there is not record of her personally trying a case in a courtroom.

................... :roll:

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
Re: Harris refused to admit she voted against Cal. prop 36
« Reply #1913 on: November 04, 2024, 09:21:20 AM »
https://www.westernjournal.com/kamala-refuses-answer-voting-key-cali-crime-measure-sunday-election/

but she is a real heavy weight in fighting "transnational" organized crime.

though there is not record of her personally trying a case in a courtroom.

................... :roll:

This is right in her wheelhouse, the prosecution and punishment for crime. How can she not admit a position. Is she for or against prosecution and Punishment of crime?

Of course if she says yes, she offends this group and if she says no she offends that group.

Funny that didn't stop her from having two positions on Israel, Hamas.

"Leaders" today don't lead, they follow.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2024, 12:38:23 PM by DougMacG »

Body-by-Guinness

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 3226
    • View Profile
Re: Harris refused to admit she voted against Cal. prop 36
« Reply #1914 on: November 04, 2024, 11:13:13 AM »
https://www.westernjournal.com/kamala-refuses-answer-voting-key-cali-crime-measure-sunday-election/

but she is a real heavy weight in fighting "transnational" organized crime.

though there is not record of her personally trying a case in a courtroom.

................... :roll:

This is right in her wheelhouse, the prosecution and punishment for crime. How dare she not admit a position. Is she four or against prosecution and Punishment of crime?

Of course if she says yes, she offends this group and if she says no she offends that group.

Funny that didn't stop her from having two positions on Israel, Hamas.

"Leaders" today don't lead, they follow.

"Leaders" today don't lead, they follow pander."

Fixed it for ya....

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19748
    • View Profile
"Leaders" today don't lead, they follow pander."
« Reply #1915 on: November 04, 2024, 12:12:43 PM »
"Leaders" today don't lead, they follow pander."

presidents have long followed polls

but in my lifetime I saw this brought to a total way of Presidential governing with Bill Clinton.

He was the first , as far as I know, real follower who would administer the Presidency totally based on polls and focus groups and surveys etc   .   Whatever he could do to stay popular .  That was his goal .  He wanted to be loved.

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1916 on: November 04, 2024, 12:34:41 PM »
Salina Zito says it's not a gender gap, it's a marriage gap.

Turnout of single young women for Harris is a key factor for her.  (Married women split much closer to 50-50.)


ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19748
    • View Profile
marriage gap
« Reply #1917 on: November 04, 2024, 01:14:00 PM »
"Salina Zito says it's not a gender gap, it's a marriage gap."

interesting and not just because of abortion

I think a lot has to do with it is easily stated by Larry Elder:

young single women and mothers marry the government for sustenance.


Body-by-Guinness

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 3226
    • View Profile
NC Hurricane Aftermath & the Failures of FEMA
« Reply #1918 on: November 04, 2024, 06:32:39 PM »
Likely misfiled, but given all the Katrina hoopla heaped on the Bush admin, it would seem similar media treatment would be appropriate here. Instead little reporting on the delayed FEMA response, and a likely gross underreporting of deaths, currently standing at 98, but with plenty of anecdotal evidence it’s more likely in the thousands.

https://x.com/thevinomom/status/1853509369746583859?s=61

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1919 on: November 04, 2024, 07:45:45 PM »
Among the messaging errors, we talk inflation but the issue is price level / "affordability".  We went after 'inflation' at its peak and they now get to say inflation is down, like they fixed it. I'm a math guy but since when do we talk with the public about the second derivative, the rate of change of the rate of change.  Democrats say inflation is down.  People say stuff is still unaffordable.

All the tariff talk gives Democrats the ammunition to tell voters Trump will make prices worse.

Be more clear. Democrats made everything less affordable, unaffordable. Restaurants going out of business is a sign of that. Higher prices ate up your puny wage gain and the future looks worse if we don't change course.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-bogeyman-haunting-harris-and-biden-that-trump-is-cashing-in-on/ar-AA1tt8lH
« Last Edit: November 05, 2024, 06:05:03 AM by DougMacG »


DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
2024, Vote today if you haven't already
« Reply #1921 on: November 05, 2024, 07:00:38 AM »
Vote and check in with at least 10 or 12 like minded friends and family members.
Fewer than 1 in 1600 votes decided the last election.

Democrats have a serious and professional Get out the Vote operation.  Activists from a Minneapolis I know travel to towns in Wisconsin to volunteer and make a difference for their side, and what do we do?

Please reach out today to everyone you can.

We've got one shot at this. Tomorrow is too late.

Fewer than 1 in 1600 made or could have made the difference last time.
https://www.city-journal.org/article/which-way-will-it-go

The polls are tied.  Turnout wins.

Body-by-Guinness

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 3226
    • View Profile
Yes We Have No Exit Polls & Other Bon Mots
« Reply #1922 on: November 05, 2024, 07:15:13 AM »
This one’s for you, Doug. Hopefully it helps quell concerns, at least until we have some actual hard data rolling in. One point worth mulling made here: what happened to exit polls? Did the press leave them in their other pants, or is it more of a head in the sand response whereby you can’t report bad news and depress turnout of True Believers if you don’t employ the tools that allow you to find it:

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/finally-tuesday-november-5-2024-c

Body-by-Guinness

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 3226
    • View Profile
The Plywood Poll
« Reply #1923 on: November 05, 2024, 01:34:25 PM »
DC sure has a lot of windows and doors covered with plywood. Seems many think Mostly Peaceful (™) mayhem is coming their way:

https://x.com/chuckrossdc/status/1853465698149728287?s=61

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1924 on: November 05, 2024, 08:23:15 PM »
Results I can see look super close, in
line with polls.

These can flip in an instant:

"Election Betting Odds: Trump Passes 90% On Major Platforms As More Election Results Come In"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/11/05/election-betting-odds-trump-passes-90-on-major-platforms-as-more-election-results-come-in/
11:20 ET
« Last Edit: November 06, 2024, 01:40:04 AM by DougMacG »

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
2024, Trump Swing State Sweep plus Trump wins popular vote
« Reply #1925 on: November 06, 2024, 01:52:16 AM »
A red, white and blue wave.

Popular vote count:

Kamala Harris
66,341,752 votes (47.0%)

Donald Trump
71,271,787 votes (51.0%)
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2024/nov/06/us-election-results-map-2024-live-donald-trump-kamala-harris-president

https://polymarket.com/elections

Republicans win US Senate. Republicans lead in all the close contests except Arizona, Kari Lake losing.
Update, Hovde now trailing in Wisconsin.

Haven't heard about the House, maybe that takes weeks.
------------
"81% chance Republicans win US House."
------------
Polls undercounted Trump vote by 1.5 to 5%.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2024, 06:10:40 AM by DougMacG »

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19748
    • View Profile

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
Will 2024 Election help reform the Democratic Party?
« Reply #1929 on: November 06, 2024, 06:28:51 AM »
https://www.adambcoleman.com/p/trumps-massive-win-is-a-referendum?publication_id=1086336&post_id=151261743&isFreemail=true&r=9bg2k&triedRedirect=true

"Trump’s Massive Win Is A Referendum On What The Democratic Party Is No Longer: They lost the plot and abandoned liberal values, common sense, and the working class."
...
"I believe this country is a better country when it has two sane political parties that are trying to attract every American's vote and the Democrats had purposefully chosen to flatter niche audiences, hyper-focusing on identity over substance and reality."
   - former Democrat
« Last Edit: November 06, 2024, 06:36:40 AM by DougMacG »

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
2024 analysis
« Reply #1930 on: November 06, 2024, 08:06:07 AM »
For as extreme as the media portray Trump, strange that he was actually the more moderate candidate.  This election was not a surge to the right, but more a surge to the center.
https://alphanews.org/referendum-on-the-elites-young-pro-choice-women-backing-trump-due-in-part-to-medias-lies/

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19748
    • View Profile
Possible reason why Harris has not conceded
« Reply #1931 on: November 06, 2024, 09:04:50 AM »
One theory

is that Merchand will imprison Trump and the DNC lawyers will try to make him ineligible and Vance too and state Harris should be President

they would (have) to do this ASAP before Trump is sworn in.


DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
Re: Possible reason why Harris has not conceded
« Reply #1932 on: November 06, 2024, 12:20:44 PM »
One theory

is that Merchand will imprison Trump and the DNC lawyers will try to make him ineligible and Vance too and state Harris should be President

they would (have) to do this ASAP before Trump is sworn in.

Another report is that like Hillary 2016, she had too much to drink to give the speech. Also, the delay allowed them to explore every alternative to conceding. .
« Last Edit: November 06, 2024, 12:45:09 PM by DougMacG »

Body-by-Guinness

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 3226
    • View Profile
Against All Odds
« Reply #1933 on: November 06, 2024, 01:38:02 PM »
A good overview of what occurred yesterday:

Against all odds
But those so shocked by Trump's victory have only themselves to blame

MELANIE PHILLIPS
NOV 06, 2024

Donald Trump, about to win yesterday’s US presidential election
The relief, for some of us, is overwhelming. Even among people who dislike Donald Trump or worry about his temperament, the possibility that Kamala Harris might win yesterday’s US presidential election produced the deepest fear and dread — fear for America and fear for civilisation. 

Others, however — dyed-in-the-wool Democrats, formerly Republican “never-Trumpers” and “progressives” in Britain and elsewhere — are clutching their heads today and moaning “How could this have happened”?

It would take a heart of stone not to laugh. The election result is by any standard extraordinary. This is a man whom the left has spent the past eight years trying to destroy through every possible means other than a stake through the heart. 

He was subjected to an attempted rolling coup, impeachment (twice), lawfare prosecutions and legal harassment. He was found responsible for sexual assault in a civil case and convicted of improperly reporting hush money payments. His house was raided over official documents that, like Joe Biden, he had taken home. He was defamed non-stop with malicious distortions of his comments and claims that he was a Nazi, fascist, and dictator who would destroy democracy. Then he survived a would-be assassin’s bullet.

Yet Trump and the Republicans have now come through to win the presidency, the Senate and the popular vote.

Moreover, in every constituency that the Democrats had assumed was their own and in which they were confident they had the vote sewn up — African-Americans, Hispanics and other minorities, women, young people, first-time voters — Trump actually increased his support and crushed his opponent.

Why oh why? cry traumatised liberals. How could this possibly have happened when we said it wouldn’t? We stated definitively that Kamala would win by an overwhelming majority. So how can it possibly be the case that she didn’t achieve what we had said would happen?

The arrogance and hubris are overwhelming, a rich source of mockery and comic memes which are now doing the rounds. However, these come from a mindset which is far from amusing. As the default position of those screaming about the threat that Trump is said to pose to democracy, this mindset is actually based on profound and venomous contempt for millions of regular folk.

This was summed up in an unusually clear-eyed analysis by a member of the American media. As the result was becoming clear last night, CNN’s political commentator Scott Jennings said:

This is a mandate.. for getting the economy working again for millions of working-class Americans, fix immigration, try to get crime under control, try to reduce the chaos in the world — this is a mandate from the American people to do that. I’m interpreting the results tonight as the revenge of the regular old working-class American, the anonymous American who has been crushed, insulted, condescended to; they’re not “garbage”, they’re not “Nazis”, they’re just regular people who just get up and go to work every day trying to make a better life for their kids, and they feel like they have been told to just shut up when they have complained about the things that are hurting them in their own lives.

Jennings was a rare voice of honesty from within a liberal establishment that has thus dismissed and defamed ordinary Americans for years. The reason that so many liberals simply can’t believe what’s just happened, the reason they were absolutely certain in their predictions that Trump couldn’t possibly win, the reason they never registered Kamala’s manifold and disqualifying flaws, is that the world they inhabit is a fantasy world.

What they want to happen is what they tell themselves must happen; because it must happen, it will happen; and, if they tell themselves lies — such as that transgender men are women, that excluding Zionists from publishing is helping oppressed Palestinians or that accusing all Caucasians of “white privilege” is anti-racist — what must happen is already happening. And where it is undeniably not happening, they have a duty to make it happen by foul means as well as fair because it cannot be allowed not to happen.

So when faced with the evidence of the disaster that was Kamala Harris’s candidacy, they simply didn’t see what the rest of us saw. They didn’t see that her inability to answer any question other than in gibberish “word-salads” was evidence of someone who was totally unsuited to public office. Instead, the mainstream media censored those episodes on the grounds that it was their duty to ensure she was elected because the alternative couldn’t be allowed to happen.

They didn’t register the copious evidence on social media of African- Americans and Hispanics declaring themselves Trump voters. They didn’t acknowledge  — couldn’t possibly acknowledge — the disaster of Barack Obama’s arrogant attempt to bully young black men into voting for Kamala, a desperate move which backfired so very badly when these young men declared themselves insulted by a man who had done nothing for them while he was president.

But when what they deem unconscionable really does happen despite all their efforts, it’s as if the world has turned backwards on its axis. It’s an offence against nature itself. It simply cannot be.

Hence the titanic effort by the liberal establishment in Britain to reverse the 2016 Brexit vote. Hence the unconstitutional and probably illegal three-year attempt by elements in the justice department, FBI and Democratic party — facilitated by a shockingly partisan media suppressing the truth — to lever Trump out of office the first time round.

Lo and behold, there are already threats to repeat that attempted coup against democracy — by those who in the same breath are intoning that Trump will now destroy democracy. In The Atlantic, Tom Nichols writes:

After Barack Obama was elected president in 2008, then–Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell vowed to make Obama a one-term president, and obstructed him at every turn. McConnell, of course, cared only about seizing power for his party, and later, he could not muster that same bravado when faced with Trump’s assaults on the government. Patriotic Americans and their representatives might now make a similar commitment, but for better aims: Although they cannot remove Trump from office, they can declare their determination to prevent Trump from implementing the ghastly policies he committed himself to while campaigning.

The kinds of actions that will stop Trump from destroying America in 2025 are the same ones that stopped many of his plans the first time around. They are not flashy, and they will require sustained attention, because the next battles for democracy will be fought by lawyers and legislators, in Washington and in every state capitol. They will be fought by citizens banding together in associations and movements to rouse others from the sleepwalk that has led America into this moment.

Get that? “Patriotic” Americans must now prevent Trump from carrying out the pledges he made to the American people on the basis of which they voted for him— the essence of a democratic election.

Liberals having this meltdown are accusing Trump of behaviour of which they themselves are guilty: contempt for democracy, suborning the constitutional order, lying, bullying, extremism, suppressing contrary opinions and promoting hatred and division. Psychologists call this kind of accusatory behaviour “projection”. It is a mental disorder.

The chances of this election result resulting in such people questioning their own mindset and assumptions, which have now so spectacularly blown up in their faces, are very slim. A notable exception has been Scott Jennings, who in his rare media mea culpa also said the following:

I also feel like this election was something of an indictment of the political information complex. We’ve been sitting around it for the last couple of weeks, and the story that was portrayed was not true…all these gimmicks we were told were going to push Harris over the line, and we were ignoring the fundamentals: inflation, a feeling like they were barely able to tread water at best…for all of us who cover elections, and talk about elections, and do this on a day-to-day basis, we have to figure out how to understand, talk to and listen to the half of the country that rose up tonight and said, we’ve had enough.

Absolutely correct. Elsewhere, however, liberal commentators are employing funereal tones today as if they are in mourning. And of course, they’re lashing out at the people they say are to blame.

They blame Harris for failing to be different enough from Joe Biden.

They blame women for unaccountably failing to vote for her.

They blame people without a college degree for not having the intelligence to agree with them.

They blame the dark forces of human nature.

They blame Elon Musk for existing.

What such people can’t see — and will never see — is that the people to blame are themselves.

https://melaniephillips.substack.com/p/against-all-odds?r=1qo1e&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 72241
    • View Profile
Schaudenfreude
« Reply #1934 on: November 06, 2024, 02:19:36 PM »

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1935 on: November 06, 2024, 02:36:11 PM »
Remeniscing, Nov 3:

"To me, a big win is to win the Presidency, House, most of the contested Senate seats, plus the popular vote."
-------

This is a big win. Not to be greedy but if we won all the Senate seats in the states Trump won this victory would have a more lasting effect.

For all the times I heard people say, the problem is Trump, he keeps getting more votes than the other Republicans on the ballot.  And (almost) all of these were great candidates.

Republicans won in West Virginia and Montana. McCormick in Pennsylvania leads by a hair. Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona lost. Nevada is super close.

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19748
    • View Profile
Harris nonconcession speech
« Reply #1936 on: November 06, 2024, 02:41:29 PM »
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/06/kamala-harris-concession-speech-video/76090594007/

I guess she thinks she will run in future.  The Dems are not likely that stupid.

Yet stranger things have happened.  I thought Trump was washed up after '22 defeat.

Best pollster predictor was Tyrus from the Gutfeld show.  He had predicting a landslide for Trump for weeks.

Plouffe big loser , and   Elias too. We know they are not going away.

Jeff Bezos congratulating Trump on his win - what a joke.  Who does he think he is kidding after yrs of letting WP run rampant for Dems.

All these tech giants congratulating Trump.     :roll:

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 72241
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1937 on: November 06, 2024, 02:43:11 PM »


"Best pollster predictor was Tyrus from the Gutfeld show"

I like him a lot.  A very smart Mongo!

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
A de days ago, Brett Favre returned to Green Bay
« Reply #1938 on: November 06, 2024, 08:12:56 PM »
7 min video, one small piece of how the election was won.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYaH8vvGmwo

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 72241
    • View Profile
WSJ
« Reply #1939 on: November 07, 2024, 06:49:51 AM »
Pretty good, until he brings Trump into his commentary.

Democrats Will Blame Biden
But they should take a harder look at the path they’ve gone down with cynicism and lawfare.
Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.
Nov. 6, 2024 2:36 pm ET

Gnashing of teeth by senior Democrats is inappropriate after Tuesday’s loss. A more apt reaction would be a woeful smile, a gentle clap on each other’s back and the words, “Hey, we might have won if we’d taken the thing seriously.”

If, in their vast contempt, Democrats hadn’t tried to wangle a demonstrably senile president’s renomination and re-election. If they hadn’t tried to serve up a last-minute replacement who convenienced certain party leaders, such as the Obamas, without any consultation with the party’s rank and file.

Working Americans, when they voted for Democrats, were the backbone of America, saints of small-town virtue. When they didn’t, they were garbage and deplorables.

In a fit of shortsightedness, Democrats committed the idiocy of fabricating evidence that their 2016 opponent, popular with half the country, was a Russian agent. Eight years later, voters seemed to remember that this happened even when friendly media subservients pretended it didn’t.

In 2020 Democrats put forward a candidate and later president who evinced a demonstrable family corruption problem related to Ukraine. They got him elected after the CIA lied and blamed the problem on Russia. Now, when voters hear the words Russia and Ukraine, they wonder if Democratic corruption had a role in landing us in the middle of a war between the two countries.

Let’s try to be sensitive. Democrats and major media figures today are psychologically fragile, especially the latter, who got used to believing elaborately fraudulent things about themselves. Unfortunately, it isn’t practical to assign guardians to each media personality lest they be tempted to do something unhealthy to make the pain of self-discovery stop.

As for Kamala Harris, she won’t be that occasional losing presidential candidate who nevertheless is accorded a status as her party’s leader going forward. She can expect to be jettisoned as an uber Dukakis, not only because of perceived inadequacy (she lost) but because of the sense of illegitimacy that attended her rise.

Her seeming vacuity doesn’t help; she gives no evidence of historical imagination when her party needs it. Through three successive presidential elections, Democrats became only more committed to using the national-security state (led by the FBI and CIA), the tools of lawfare and censorship, and a compliant media to wage their political fights, to the point of milking the musings of constitutional scholars for reasons to strike an opponent from the ballot without due process.

What criminal renounces his crime after he sees it pay off? If God’s wisdom is revealed in Tuesday’s outcome, Democrats at least will now seek a more honorable path.

The best reason to have hoped for a Harris victory was to spare the nation another four years of open warfare between our corrupt institutions and the antic and untamable Mr. Trump.

Politely, in the sanctum of our private thoughts, we might expect now for Mr. Biden the fate his Catholic faith promises the unrepentant sinner—or at least that he be remembered as the worst president since James Buchanan.

For two years this column lobbied against Mr. Biden seeking a second term. It pointed to his obvious motive in seeking to make sure Mr. Trump would be his opponent because Mr. Trump was the only Republican he might beat.

A year ago Mr. Biden might have resigned in favor of Ms. Harris so she could test her presidential mettle, compete in an open and normal Democratic primary, and, most important, rescue his Ukraine policy.

GOP voters might have taken the cue that Mr. Trump’s era was over too. We wouldn’t have gotten the deluge of criminal prosecutions so crucial to restoring his standing with Republican primary voters. These prosecutions indisputably (the New York Times can stop lying to itself about this) were undertaken to help Mr. Biden. As it is, we should consider the U.S. as having dodged a bullet on Tuesday when Mr. Trump’s victory was substantial enough that Democrats cannot challenge its legal or moral legitimacy.

I was a Democrat for 37 years by family accident but found my hand writing down “independent” in 2017 upon belatedly accepting that the state where I currently reside has become my home. It seemed a bit of a heavenly joke that Mr. Trump was the vehicle for laying before me the swinishness of people like Hillary Clinton, Adam Schiff and, later, Joe Biden and his retinue.

My cynicism had perhaps failed me, but the world isn’t Manichean, a battle of opposites. Mr. Trump may be a clumsier (and lonelier) liar compared with many of those who were ranged against him, including much of the press. But his voters by now understand his nature. He beats our establishment politicians at their own game of nonstop cynicism. His opponents might finally ask themselves why.

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19748
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1940 on: November 07, 2024, 07:17:32 AM »
they will blame everyone but themselves

just google to see what David Plouffe who I am sure made millions off the disastrous campaign and all I can find is him pre election saying Trump could not get to 270 and Harris will win all 7 swing states.

I doubt he will return any of his pay.

I doubt he will take any blame

excuses finger pointing etc.

These people never admit to anything


Body-by-Guinness

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 3226
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1941 on: November 07, 2024, 10:11:55 AM »
they will blame everyone but themselves

just google to see what David Plouffe who I am sure made millions off the disastrous campaign and all I can find is him pre election saying Trump could not get to 270 and Harris will win all 7 swing states.

I doubt he will return any of his pay.

I doubt he will take any blame

excuses finger pointing etc.

These people never admit to anything

One aghast mantra I've encoutered a couple times is "he was convicted of 34 (or whatever the current number is) felonies, yet those dupes in flyover country elected him anyway! The horror, the horror!" They don't finish the Conrad quote by saying "exterminate the brutes," but they are likely thinking it, or at least of a stark reeducation center their moral inferiors can be interred at until they robotically mouth approved platitudes.

The irony is their utter lack of self-reflection and inability to grasp causality is the proximate cause of their electoral failures. I get that some of them are so sunk in some Handmaiden's Tale construct they feel in their marrow they then wildly extrapolate a rabid patriarchy that became the the sum of their fears, growing into an alternate reality they now imagine weighs them down. But do any of them understand, for instance, that they applied tar and feathers to Trump at every turn, and are now aghastly speculating he is about to track up the parlor? Their ever growing list of existential fables created the monolithic, Nazis at the gates worldview they can't unsee, and those of us that didn't buy that crap are responsible for the fable induced mortal angst bearing down on them? Please....

« Last Edit: November 07, 2024, 11:10:51 AM by Body-by-Guinness »

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19748
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1942 on: November 07, 2024, 10:56:52 AM »
Indeed BBG

I love this:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-tech-ceos-rush-to-congratulate-trump-on-election-win-180554274.html

What a great opportunity not to accept and let bygones be bygones from the Tech scumbags:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-tech-ceos-rush-to-congratulate-trump-on-election-win-180554274.html

Trump should be Machiavellian with them and demand they clean up their biasis and pay up for their sins.

Continue or plan the monopoly and unfair illegal business practices and also demand NO bias in their searches there posts and their politics


Body-by-Guinness

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 3226
    • View Profile
VDH on 2024: Innate Inability or Doddering Dementia ...
« Reply #1943 on: November 07, 2024, 11:35:22 AM »
... and other insufferable cruxes Dems foisted:

Our Election’s Utter Losers and Winners

Victor Davis Hanson  | November 06, 2024

Deservedly, the 2024 Election’s Losers

The polls—with the exception once again of AltasIntel, Trafalgar, and Rasmussen—were off, and way off in the Senate races. The pollsters’ reputation is again in full reverse and now back to their nadir of 2020 and 2016. Many shamelessly warped their data in the last two weeks to gin up Kamala Harris momentum, fundraising, and voter turnout. And to no avail.

There were plenty of indications long ago in key states of a Donald Trump thunderstorm: defections of minorities, anger among both the Jewish and Muslim voters, alienated union members, massive increases in Republican registrations, and non-Election Day balloting. And all were deliberately ignored by the corrupt media and pollsters.

The Daily Signal depends on the support of readers like you. Donate now

Democrats know—but will do nothing about the fact—they have become the party of the upscale professionals and the rich and the subsidized poor. They have alienated the entire middle class—white, black, Hispanic—and are ceding it to the new Republican populist-nationalist party.

Open borders, hyperinflation, abortion deification, the transgendered mania, the crime wave, and the “green” obsessions all did their bit to repel voters. The “racist” Trump won more minority support than any Dole, McCain, or Romney figure of the past.

What now will the buffoonish Alvin Bragg, Fani Willis, and Jack Smith do with their pseudo-indictments and convictions? Try to nullify an American election by putting the president-elect in jail, as the projectionist and now-paranoid Left screams that a soon to be President Trump might lawfare them in the manner they did him?

Democrat incumbent senators by late September knew their internal polls were bleeding. So, they decided to junk their lifelong voting records, ideology, and transient fealty to Harris, and became chameleonlike to absorb the Trump agendas. That proved too fake and opportunistic for most voters.

Remember, we will soon be back to 2017-era left-wing hysteria. The Left, as it licks its numerous wounds, will reemerge soon to get back the House and impeach Trump, riot on Inauguration Day, gin up more lawfare with hackish local and state prosecutors, insert more deep-state “Anonymous” obstructors into the swamp, draft more has-been generals to trash their commander in chief, and reach for the absurdities like the Logan Act, 25th Amendment, or more collusion myths. After all, the party that said democracy was on the ballot is now the most antidemocratic force in modern history.

Will a Josh Shapiro try to do a Bill Clinton on the Democratic Party as the latter did after the George McGovern/Jimmy Carter disasters?

The Winners?
Donald Trump, of course.

After a decade of Russian collusion farces, laptop disinformation ruses, two impeachments, attempted ballot removal, five civil and criminal suits, two assassination attempts, and a SWAT team raid on his home, the indestructible 78-year-old Trump has just pulled off the greatest political comeback in presidential history.

Trump was out-funded by Harris. The media gave him 95% negative coverage. The glitterati trashed him nonstop and even stooped to sabotage “Saturday Night Live,” in vain, to stop him. The ridiculous Obamas jetted out of their mansions to lie about Trump nonstop and talk down to their own voters. All they proved was that the phantom, supposedly miracle Michelle Obama candidacy would have been even worse than Harris. An arrogant Oprah and “The View” really believed their gossipy paranoia about Trump.

In the end, Trump proved more energetic and industrious than Harris, smarter than seasoned politicos, and utterly authentic, preferring to be genuine and occasionally crude than the inauthentic and sappy Harris.

He may likely be the first Republican to win 51% of the vote since 1988 and the first to win the popular vote in 20 years. As a general rule, those in the conservative and Republican movements who stood by Trump have won with him. Those who damned him ended up inert or wandering aimlessly in the political wilderness.

What happens to the Liz Cheneys and Larry Hogans of the world? There are now no more “Never Trump” conservatives. That is a misnomer for those who were, after a decade, mostly either left-wing or subsidized by the Left as useful idiots—or irrelevant.

Contrast all that with the even more ascendant and buoyant mavericks like Elon Musk, RFK Jr., Joe Rogan, and Tulsi Gabbard. I watched the tears, denial, and fury of the MSNBC and CNN crowd as they struggled first to fantasize nonexistent pathways to victory, then to revisit “Russian collusion” and “lawfare,” then to claim the proverbial naïve and stupid electorate was deluded into voting against its “real” interests (as defined by MSNBC grandees), and finally to announce that the world—currently on the nuclear precipice of Joe Biden-induced, escalating, theater-wide wars—will be “aghast” at the will of the American people.

In other words, the political-media Leftist fusion sermonized about everything other than why they were rejected by the American people. What a pathetic bunch our media have become.

And lastly, Biden? The Left—who dreamed up the 2020 idea of using the fake “ol’ Joe Biden from Scranton” as “moderate” cover for the hard-left agenda—does not know whether to blame Joe for not getting out earlier or to claim their July coup was now a mistake and they would have been better off with a candidate cognitively challenged by dementia rather than one by innate inability.

So, Democrats will blame everyone and everything—except themselves, who sought to drive down the American people’s throat the most radical and absurd agenda of the last two centuries that ruined the economy, exploded our border, made moonscapes of our big cities, destroyed women’s sports, set the world abroad afire, weaponized the courts and the bureaucracies, and sought to tear the country in two.

RIP to all that.

https://www.dailysignal.com/2024/11/06/elections-utter-losers-winners/

Body-by-Guinness

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 3226
    • View Profile
Prediction Markets Not the Magic Bullet Some Pretend they Are
« Reply #1944 on: November 07, 2024, 11:49:30 PM »
Interesting piece re prediction markets and polls. The takeaway? There are more variables and manipulation paths than most realize. Refreshingly the comments to this piece contain a fair amount of deep thinking and grist to mull:

Prediction Markets for the Win
Marginal Revolution / by Alex Tabarrok / Nov 7, 2024 at 7:23 AM
The prediction markets predicted the election outcome more accurately and more quickly than polls or other forecasting methods, just as expected from decades of research. In this election, however, many people discounted the prediction markets because of large trades on Polymarket. Paul Krugman, for example, wrote:

Never mind the prediction markets, which are thin and easily manipulated.

None of that was true but perhaps that was par for the course. Even some prediction market experts, however, began to wobble under the influence of “whale” manipulation theories. But this story was always shaky. What was the supposed logic?

Few directly articulated the theory—perhaps because it sounds absurd when spelled out. The idea seems to be that whales shifted market odds from 50:50 to 40:60, hoping this would drive more people to vote for Trump. Really? Were voters in Pennsylvania watching Polymarket to decide who to vote for? In a decision market, manipulation might be desirable to a whale (albeit unlikely to succeed), but in prediction markets, this scenario seems dubious: a) people would need to know about these markets, b) they’d need to care about probability shifts on these markets (as opposed to voting say the way their family and neighbors were voting), and c) this would have to be an effective way to spend money to influence votes compared to the myriad other ways of influencing voting. Each step seems dubious.

Alternatively, maybe whales were simply wasting money, “memeing” away millions of dollars? Is that something that whales do? The memeing theory is more plausible with many small traders, not a few whales. Or maybe the whales aimed to spark excitement among the minnows, hoping to build momentum before cashing out. However, exciting small traders to inflate prices and then exiting is risky; the same power that whales have to drive up prices can drive prices down just as quickly, making a profitable exit challenging. In short, while not impossible, the idea of whale-driven manipulation in prediction markets was far-fetched.

In fact, we now know that the biggest whale was moving the markets towards accuracy (against his own interest by the way). In an excellent WSJ article we learn:

The mystery trader known as the “Trump whale” is set to reap almost $50 million in profit after running the table on a series of bold bets tied to the presidential election.

Not only did he see Donald Trump winning the presidency, he wagered that Trump would win the popular vote—an outcome that many political observers saw as unlikely. “Théo,” as the trader called himself, also bet that Trump would win the “blue wall” swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Now, Théo is set for a huge payday. He made his wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, using four anonymous accounts. Although he has declined to share his identity, he has been communicating with a Wall Street Journal reporter since an article on Oct. 18 drew attention to his bets.

In dozens of emails, Théo said his wager was essentially a bet against the accuracy of polling data. Describing himself as a wealthy Frenchman who had previously worked as a trader for several banks, he told the Journal that he began applying his mathematical know-how to analyze U.S. polls over the summer.

Here’s the most remarkable bit. Theo commissioned his own polls using a different methodology!

Polls failed to account for the “shy Trump voter effect,” Théo said. Either Trump backers were reluctant to tell pollsters that they supported the former president, or they didn’t want to participate in polls, Théo wrote.

To solve this problem, Théo argued that pollsters should use what are known as neighbor polls that ask respondents which candidates they expect their neighbors to support. The idea is that people might not want to reveal their own preferences, but will indirectly reveal them when asked to guess who their neighbors plan to vote for.

…In an email, he told the Journal that he had commissioned his own surveys to measure the neighbor effect, using a major pollster whom he declined to name. The results, he wrote, “were mind blowing to the favor of Trump!”

Théo declined to share those surveys, saying his agreement with the pollster required him to keep the results private. But he argued that U.S. pollsters should use the neighbor method in future surveys to avoid another embarrassing miss.

Thus, a big win for prediction markets, for Polymarket and for GMU’s Robin Hanson, the father of prediction markets, whose work directly influenced the creation of Polymarket.

The post Prediction Markets for the Win appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/11/prediction-markets-for-the-win.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=prediction-markets-for-the-win

objectivist1

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1058
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1945 on: November 08, 2024, 06:23:00 AM »
Trump Just Pulled Off the Biggest Comeback in American History

Move over Grover.

November 7, 2024 by Robert Spencer


Throughout the evening Tuesday, Fox News commentators made repeated references to the possibility that Donald Trump was going to pull off “the biggest comeback in American politics since Grover Cleveland,” which showed a fine awareness of history but probably left many viewers puzzled, since ol’ Grover is not exactly in the first tier of American presidents who shine brightly in our miseducated and distracted national historical memory.

Still, it is true that Donald Trump and Grover Cleveland are now the only two presidents in American history to have been reelected president after losing their first bid for reelection. And contrary to the Fox talking heads, Trump’s comeback is even more comprehensive and astonishing than that of his nineteenth-century counterpart.

As “Rating America’s Presidents” explains, in Grover Cleveland’s day, the biggest — and only — swing state was New York. In 1880, 1884, and 1888, if New York had gone for the other candidate, it would have changed the outcome of the election. 21,000 New York votes made the Republican James A. Garfield president in 1880 instead of the Democrat Winfield Scott Hancock, and in 1884, Cleveland was elected president for the first time because he won New York by the nail-biting margin of 1,149 votes over James G. Blaine, “the continental liar from the state of Maine.” The powerbrokers of the day were well aware of New York’s power: Cleveland was the Democrats’ fourth presidential candidate from New York in five elections.

When Cleveland was running for reelection in 1888 against the Republican Benjamin Harrison, New York once again effectively chose the president, swinging back to the Republicans by a margin of just over 14,000 votes and sweeping Grover and his glamorous young bride Frances (the proto-Melania Trump), whom Cleveland had married in the White House, back to private life.

Still, Cleveland won the popular vote and remained the leader of the Democrat party. Harrison was not a popular or particularly successful president, and when Cleveland challenged him to a rematch in 1892, he looked stronger than he had in 1888. As in 2024, the economy was a big issue. The Republican platform reaffirmed the party’s commitment to “the American doctrine of protectionism” and stated that “the prosperous condition of our country” was due to their “wise revenue legislation.” The Democrats countered this America-first message by charging in their own platform that “Republican protection” was “a fraud, a robbery, of the great majority of the American people for the benefit of the few.”

Cleveland won by a comfortable margin and became the only president to return to the White House after leaving it — until Jan. 20, 2025, that is, barring an act of God or some nefarious act of Democrat chicanery. Cleveland did indeed pull off a remarkable comeback, but Donald Trump’s was much greater and more impressive.

Cleveland, after all, won the popular vote when he lost his first reelection bid in 1888. The official results of the 2020 election look increasingly improbable in light of 2024 — where did Biden’s 81 million votes go? Nevertheless, according to the tally that we all must accept on pain of being called “election deniers” and marginalized accordingly, Trump lost the popular vote by seven million votes in 2020, yet stormed back and won it in 2024, becoming the first Republican to win it since George W. Bush did so in 2004.

Even more importantly, Trump pulled out this victory while under a cloud that was unprecedented in American history. Grover Cleveland never had to deal with his opposition framing him on bogus charges and trying to sideline his candidacy not on the basis of the issues, but because he was a “convicted felon.” Grover likewise never had to face a gaggle of self-described news outlets that were really nothing more than propaganda arms for his opponent.

When he lost his race for California governor in 1962, two years after losing the presidency by a razor-thin margin, an embittered Richard Nixon told the gleeful press corps: “You won’t have Nixon to kick around anymore, because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference.”

He pulled off a splendid comeback of his own by being elected president in 1968, but Richard Nixon, as hated as he was, was never kicked around as much as Donald Trump has been. The 2024 election coverage was the most biased in history, as most establishment outlets presented Americans with the claim that they faced a choice between Kamala Harris and Adolf Hitler.

Grover Cleveland never had to face anything close to defamation of that magnitude. Hitler wasn’t even born until Cleveland had already lost his attempt at reelection and Benjamin Harrison had been president for six weeks. Because he overcame so many attempts to destroy his career and reputation, and even end his life, Trump’s 2024 victory is unparalleled in American history and is without any exaggeration one of the most remarkable events in the history of any country.

The left will, of course, keep on trying to destroy him. But the election results demonstrate that they’re facing a far more formidable foe than they’re prepared to admit even on Wednesday morning, as they glumly survey the smoking ruins of Kamala Harris’ presidential bid.


Robert Spencer

Robert Spencer is the director of Jihad Watch and a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center. He is author of 28 books, including many bestsellers, such as The Politically Incorrect Guide to Islam (and the Crusades), The Truth About Muhammad, The History of Jihad, and The Critical Qur’an. His latest book is Muhammad: A Critical Biography.
"You have enemies?  Good.  That means that you have stood up for something, sometime in your life." - Winston Churchill.

Body-by-Guinness

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 3226
    • View Profile
Adapt or Die: Republicans Learn to Harvest
« Reply #1946 on: November 08, 2024, 10:08:55 AM »


Perhaps this would better live in a new “2026” thread, but I don’t want our esteemed Global Moderator’s head to explode so I’ll drop it here as a 2024 coda. FWIW I’ve heard that Presler is gay, which just goes to prove just how bigoted republicans are:



Don Surber




Republicans learned to ballot harvest
NOV 08, 2024

After the steal, I said learn to ballot harvest.

Republicans did.

They did their ballot harvesting legally and in front of the entire world. There were no midnight dumps of ballots from California into unattended ballot boxes. Vote tabulations did not suddenly change in the wee hours of the morning. Republicans read the rules, learned the rules and applied the rules in new ways.

Trump urged voters to vote early — to bank their votes as they say. Republican voters did. According to the New York Times, in 9 states more than half the ballots cast were cast before Election Day either by mail or in-person.

Trump won 8 of those 9 states, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, which were four of the seven swing states. The effort in North Carolina likely saved the state for Trump because of the extent of damage to western North Carolina due to Hurricane Helene.

Republicans began their harvest by signing up people to vote. Scott Presler became the Johnny Appleseed of voter registration, setting up shop in Pennsylvania where some trees from the seeds Appleseed sowed still bear fruit.

The Express Tribune called him an unsung hero, but Donald Trump knows who he is as do millions of us MAGAts.

But Presler did more than doggedly pursue people to register to vote.

The story said, “By connecting with Amish voters and emphasizing local issues, Presler is widely credited by Trump supporters as a key figure in helping secure Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes — pivotal in Trump’s anticipated return to the White House.”

Ah yes, the Amish. They drove their horse and buggies to the polls in, well, droves.

Just before the election, AP noticed this, and reported, “Researchers say most of the Amish don’t register to vote, reflective of the Christian movement’s historic separatism from mainstream society, just as they’ve maintained their dialect and horse-and-buggy transportation.

“But a small minority have voted, and the Amish are most numerous in the all-important swing state of Pennsylvania. So they’re being targeted this year in the latest of decades of efforts to register more of them to vote.

“Republicans are seeking their votes through billboards, ads, door-to-door canvassing and community meetings. Republican campaigners see the Amish as receptive to GOP talking points — smaller government, less regulation, religious freedom.”

The votes were there for the taking because of federal government overreach. God gave us many rights. Sometimes my favorite is the right to be left alone.

Another group Republicans tapped into were hunters and other gun owners. They too just want to be left alone. Surprisingly 10 million of them were not registered to vote, according to the American Hunter in August.

Its story said, “States with the most sportsmen not yet registered to vote in the upcoming Presidential election include Pennsylvania, with 515,277 and roughly a half million each in Georgia, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin. The states with the fewest number of unregistered sportsmen and women are Arizona at 133,000, Nevada with 59,173 and Montana, 52,233.

“Election Day falls during the height of hunting seasons in many states, but sportsmen who act fast can qualify to cast their ballots absentee when they can’t make it to the polls. The Vote4America website offers a number of convenient links to register, check registration and more. It’s free and using its resources doesn’t require enrolling in another mailing list. Agreeing to its terms of service, however, is.”

Democrats did try to get the hunter vote by nominating Elmer Fudd for vice president. Unfortunately for him, he couldn’t even load his shotgun.


(Oh how I hated that dog in the 1980s.)

Early voting dropped off sharply this year compared to 2020 — for Democrats. Republicans however did better.

CNN reported, “Republicans have made up more of the pre-election vote than they did in 2020. The Trump campaign made more of an effort this year to encourage Republicans to vote early and by mail, a major shift from messaging against pre-election voting in 2020.

“Across the 27 states for which Catalist has comparable data, registered Democrats have cast 37% of pre-election ballots, while registered Republicans have cast 35%. That’s a significant tightening in the partisan gap since 2020, when, at the same point and in the same states, registered Democrats held a 12-percentage point lead — 42% to 30%.”

So a 12-point advantage for Democrats melted down to just 2 points.

The story also said, “In four of the seven key states that will likely decide the presidential election, voters register by party, and in every one of them, Republicans have made up a larger share of the pre-election vote than they did at the same time four years ago. Democrats in these states have overall decreased their share compared with 2020.

“In Arizona, 41% of pre-election voters have been Republican, a 4-point increase from 2020. Democrats have made up a share that’s 3 points less than it was four years ago, at 33%.”

So in Arizona, Republicans turned a 1 point advantage into 8 points. That’s good to know. And their efforts helped return Arizona back to the Republican fold.

Early voting flipped Nevada red in a presidential race for the first time in 20 years. Don’t get me wrong. Trump’s promise to end taxes on tips helped win votes in Las Vegas. Policy matters, but don’t discount the importance of the mechanics of an election.

In May, NBC derided the party, saying, “After years of railing against the practice of collecting and delivering other voters’ ballots, Republicans are vowing to mount their own ballot harvesting operation ahead of the 2024 presidential election.”

Given the Republican success on Tuesday, look for more success tomorrow. Presler has moved to Pennsylvania and has great plans for the Keystone State.

He told Benny Johnson, “We are not stopping for a second. I am more emboldened than ever and my goal is to ‘Florida’ Pennsylvania within the next few years.”

That is a well-earned nod to Ron DeSantis, an amazing man.

The world has changed. Get Out The Vote efforts have changed as well. GOTV no longer is just on Election Day but for an entire month or more. Adapt or die. Republicans chose to adapt.

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 72241
    • View Profile
Re: 2024
« Reply #1947 on: November 08, 2024, 10:33:18 AM »
I'm thinking https://firehydrantoffreedom.com/index.php?topic=1709.3000  would be fine for that.

Body-by-Guinness

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 3226
    • View Profile
Rasmussen In for the Polling Win
« Reply #1948 on: November 08, 2024, 02:08:56 PM »
Must … resist … urge … to start … polling thread.

Having one, though would make finding pieces like this one easy. The takeaway? Rasmussen polling was pretty freaking accurate, meaning perhaps we should heed it next time a putative nail biter electoral season is claimed:

https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2024/11/08/rasmussen-reports-completely-vindicated-by-2024-election-results-n4934072

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 19440
    • View Profile
Re: Rasmussen In for the Polling Win
« Reply #1949 on: November 08, 2024, 02:36:43 PM »
Must … resist … urge … to start … polling thread.

Having one, though would make finding pieces like this one easy. The takeaway? Rasmussen polling was pretty freaking accurate, meaning perhaps we should heed it next time a putative nail biter electoral season is claimed:

https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2024/11/08/rasmussen-reports-completely-vindicated-by-2024-election-results-n4934072

"Rasmussen's final national poll had Trump +3 over Kamala, which was spot-on accurate."

  - That happens to be where the 2022 midterms ended as well. It wasn't the red wave we hoped for but it was a national Republican win.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/republican-gains-in-2022-midterms-driven-mostly-by-turnout-advantage/pp_2023-07-12_validated-voters_00-02-png/
--------
Speaking of polling accuracy, Larry Sabato's "crystal ball" said that Harris will carry Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin and win the election.

Rate how helpful this was.

Missed by THIS much, like 8 million votes.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2024, 02:47:03 PM by DougMacG »