November 1, 2024
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Black Sea Region: Divided, Not Quite Conquered
The clash between East and West is on full display in Bulgaria, Georgia and Moldova.
By: Antonia Colibasanu
Recent elections in Bulgaria, Georgia and Moldova signal a shifting power balance in the Black Sea region, where a clash between Western and Russian interests is fueling instability across Eurasia. Even if the struggle for influence in these countries is contained to Europe’s borderlands, it offers a warning for the rest of the Continent.
Moldova’s pro-Western leanings could advance NATO and EU interests, enhancing regional stability and countering Russian military and economic ambitions. Conversely, Georgia’s recent tilt toward Russia and Bulgaria’s mixed allegiances complicate NATO's Black Sea strategy, undermining security cohesion and increasing regional vulnerability. The positions of all three countries also affect energy security and trade corridors, with Bulgaria's energy dependency, Georgia's transit routes and Moldova's location critical for Western relations with Russia and China. Ultimately, these elections will shape the Black Sea’s security dynamics, determining whether the region aligns more closely with Western allies or drifts into Russia’s sphere of influence.
Bulgaria, Moldova & Georgia
(click to enlarge)
Bulgaria
Bulgarians are increasingly frustrated by the country’s fragmented politics. Its coalitions inevitably comprise many small parties or alliances with little in common except a temptation to withdraw their support and bring the government down. After seven elections in less than four years, voters are disillusioned with the process, and voter turnout has suffered as a result. (Turnout rose 4.5 percent from previous elections, but it is still at just 38.9 percent. While the increase is encouraging, the low turnout indicates voters are tired of continuous elections.) On top of this, Bulgaria is a member of NATO and seems perpetually locked in a debate over its role in regional security.
In this week’s elections, a record eight parties cleared the threshold to make it into the parliament. The center-right GERB party (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria), led by Boyko Borissov, who served as prime minister from 2009 until 2021, secured the most votes, but at just over 26 percent it is well short of a majority. In fact, GERB would need the support of at least four other parties to govern. Among its potential allies are PP-DB (We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria), a pro-European liberal coalition that finished second with 14 percent; the radical pro-Russian Revival party, which placed third with 13 percent; and the centrist party that supports the rights of ethnic Turkish and Muslim communities, DPS (Movement for Rights and Freedoms – A New Beginning), whose 11 percent landed it in fourth place. Most important, about a third of the votes went to populist parties, so compromise will likely be hard to come by.
While issues like political stability, anti-corruption policies and economic reform also featured in the campaign, the election results underscore Bulgaria’s indecision over Russian influence and supporting Ukraine. The leaders of GERB support Bulgaria’s alignment with the European Union and NATO but also balance their Western ties with pragmatic relations with Russia. They have given their rhetorical support to Ukraine in its fight to defend its sovereignty against the Russian invasion, but when it comes to delivering weapons, ammunition or aid to Ukraine, they have been much more circumspect. Since the start of the war, GERB has cautiously supported energy diversification, though Borissov previously enabled Russian interests, notably by facilitating the TurkStream pipeline, which bypasses Ukraine to deliver Russian gas to Europe.
Historically, Bulgaria has contributed to Black Sea security through NATO, participating in initiatives like the NATO Maritime Coordination Center in Varna and multinational naval drills. However, at times Russian pressure has limited Bulgaria’s commitments, exemplified by past refusals to support a permanent NATO Black Sea presence. GERB’s cautious approach, led by Borissov, prioritizes diplomacy over military build-ups to avoid escalating regional tensions, though this risk-averse stance may hinder NATO’s strategic objectives at a time when Russian influence in the Black Sea is growing.
Meanwhile, Bulgaria faces deep structural challenges, namely economic inequality, corruption and a shrinking workforce. These factors, along with political fragmentation and pro-Russian sentiment, weaken Bulgaria’s reliability as a NATO and EU partner in the Black Sea, complicating Western efforts to counter Russia’s hybrid and military threats in the region.
Georgia
In Georgia’s parliamentary elections, the incumbent party had no problem winning a majority – but it faces widespread questions about the vote’s legitimacy. The Georgian Dream party, led by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and supported by billionaire founder Bidzina Ivanishvili, has been in office since 2012. The party was originally pro-European but started aligning itself with Russia in recent years while also consolidating its rule. Even though nearly 90 percent of Georgians favor EU membership, Georgian Dream has remained neutral on the Russia-Ukraine war and refused to join Western sanctions against Moscow. Instead, the Georgian government has maintained and even strengthened economic ties with Russia. The Georgian tourism sector received a boost in 2023 when the country resumed direct flights with Russia at a time when other countries were cutting ties. Georgian Dream also permitted large numbers of Russians fleeing war mobilization to relocate to Georgia.
In addition, the Georgian government's legislative agenda has resembled Russian measures. In 2023, Georgian Dream proposed legislation that would compel nongovernmental organizations and media that get more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad to register as "foreign agents." The bill, which bore similarities to legislation Russia has used to stifle dissent, was withdrawn in the face of large protests, only to be reintroduced and signed into law (over a presidential veto) in 2024. Also this year, the country placed the electoral commission under government control, restricted voting rights for Georgians living abroad and abolished gender quotas for parliament.
Unsurprisingly, the country’s Oct. 25 parliamentary elections – which saw Georgian Dream win with 53 percent of the vote – were marred with claims of fraud and foreign interference. The pro-Western president, Salome Zourabichvili, accused Russia of meddling in the vote, rejected the results and encouraged citizens to protest. Several international bodies, including the EU and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, alleged numerous irregularities, including voter intimidation and violence at polling stations, vote-buying and misuse of state resources. The EU and several European officials called for an independent investigation. The government ordered a recount, but a few days later the country’s electoral commission said a partial recount had confirmed Georgian Dream’s victory.
With Georgian Dream securing another term, the country’s EU ambitions are likely on hold. Although the bloc granted Georgia candidate status in late 2023, concern in the EU has been growing for some time about Georgia’s democratic backsliding and anti-Western rhetoric from Georgian Dream’s leaders. Instead, Russia and China will probably gain ground. The government has welcomed Chinese investments in strategic ports, the latest being the Anaklia deep-sea port, where a Chinese consortium now holds a 49 percent stake.
Moldova
On Nov. 3, Moldova will hold a presidential runoff between the pro-European incumbent, Maia Sandu, and Alexandr Stoianoglo, a pro-Russian former prosecutor general. In the first round on Oct. 20, Sandu secured approximately 42 percent of the vote compared with Stoianoglo’s 26 percent. On the same day, Moldovans narrowly approved a measure to embed the goal of EU membership in the constitution, with 50.4 percent in favor and 49.6 percent opposed. Despite the double-digit margin in the first round of the presidential race, voters will likely turn the runoff into an unofficial second referendum on the country’s pro-EU trajectory, resulting in a tight finish.
Western media have largely framed Moldova’s close EU referendum result as evidence of Russian-backed disinformation swaying public opinion against EU integration. However, the vote also reveals a pronounced societal divide within Moldova. Support for EU integration splits geographically, with Moldova’s north and south voting overwhelmingly against the EU, while central regions, particularly Chisinau, strongly supported EU membership. This divide reflects not only political but also economic divisions: Rural and peripheral areas, more dependent on Russian resources, view EU integration as a threat to their stability. Economic hardship compounds these divisions, as low wages and meager pensions leave many Moldovans vulnerable to influence and frustrated with perceived government neglect.
Moldova’s population also includes both Romanian- and Russian-speaking communities, with significant Russian, Ukrainian and Gagauz minorities. Russian-speaking regions, particularly semi-autonomous Gagauzia, where 94 percent voted against the EU referendum, lean toward Russia due to shared language and historical ties. Romanian-speaking communities and urban regions, more exposed to Western culture, are generally more EU-oriented, creating a cultural and linguistic divide that informs political preferences. Generational divides further shape perspectives. Younger Moldovans, especially those living in cities or abroad, favor EU integration for its economic opportunities and political reforms. In contrast, older Moldovans, especially in rural areas or those who have worked in Russia, often feel nostalgic for Soviet stability and fear that EU integration could erode traditional values and pull Moldova into conflicts like the Ukraine war.
Moreover, Transnistria remains a decisive factor in Moldovan elections. This breakaway region, with a predominantly Russian-speaking population, operates under de facto Russian control, supported by a Russian military presence. Moscow uses Transnistria’s “frozen conflict” status as leverage, implicitly threatening activation if Moldova aligns with the West. Some factions fear that EU integration could provoke conflict with Transnistria or even Russia. Similar concerns extend to semi-autonomous Gagauzia, amplified by Russian propaganda warning that EU alignment could lead to military escalation, as seen in Ukraine.
Regardless of the election outcome, Moldova’s internal divisions will probably deepen. A narrow win by Sandu or Stoianoglo would likely trigger a prolonged political standoff, especially with parliamentary elections set for next year. This scenario could heighten clashes between pro-Russian and pro-European factions, delay policy implementation and increase the risk of social unrest, particularly if economic conditions worsen. Such instability would invite further interference from Russia or the EU, polarizing society and complicating Moldova’s path forward.
Conclusion
With Bulgaria taking a pragmatic approach between Western and Russian interests, Georgia leaning pro-Russian and Moldova in political gridlock, the Black Sea region faces increasing geopolitical instability. This situation undermines the formation of a cohesive pro-Western security coalition, limiting NATO and EU capacity to establish a robust regional deterrent against Russian actions. China, meanwhile, is set to expand its influence in the region, pursuing both political and economic goals.
Russia and China have distinct but complementary objectives in the Black Sea area. Russia prioritizes strategic dominance and uses its presence to manage regional security dynamics and resist NATO influence. In contrast, China’s interests are economically driven, seeking to establish infrastructure footholds, such as in Georgia's Anaklia port and others, as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. This economic investment provides China with trade routes to Europe that bypass Russian territory, subtly expanding its influence in Eurasia. Together, Russian military and Chinese economic activities challenge Western influence, positioning both countries as influential, albeit in different spheres, in the Black Sea’s geopolitics.
Bulgaria’s accommodating stance toward Russia – evident in its fragmented coalition politics and energy policies – further weakens NATO’s Black Sea cohesion. Though a NATO member, Bulgaria’s political instability and dependence on Russian energy complicate its commitment to regional security measures, such as NATO-led demining and Black Sea defense protocols. This tepid support reduces NATO’s operational flexibility against Russian assertiveness.
Russia now stands poised to strengthen its foothold along Georgia’s coast, with Georgia’s pivot toward Moscow likely to limit its cooperation with NATO and the EU, thus diminishing Western influence along the eastern Black Sea. Russia, which already controls Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, could use a friendlier Georgian administration to expand its military and intelligence presence in the country. Meanwhile, Georgia’s openness to China provides Beijing with a strategic Black Sea maritime entry point.
In Moldova, internal fractures and the unresolved Transnistria conflict enable Russia to sustain hybrid pressure through disinformation, economic leverage and influence operations aimed at undermining pro-Western governance. This strategy not only complicates Moldova’s EU integration but threatens broader Western relations in the Black Sea region. The disunity among Black Sea states weakens collective regional defense, giving Russia greater latitude to influence these states economically and politically and distancing them from the West. And as Black Sea cohesion falters, NATO’s leverage in countering Russian threats declines, affecting maritime security, energy trade routes and the security framework of Eastern Europe – heightening security challenges for NATO’s eastern flank.
