Author Topic: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)  (Read 122195 times)



Crafty_Dog

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GPF
« Reply #502 on: January 06, 2021, 02:18:18 PM »
Pulling out the big guns. The U.S. appears to be trying to speed up India’s military (especially naval) modernization drive. The U.S. Navy is reportedly giving its Indian counterpart three medium-caliber naval guns from its own inventory. India has been signing an array of bigger, longer-term deals with the U.S. and partners like France and Israel, but it’s notable to see something in the space that can actually happen quickly.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #503 on: January 06, 2021, 06:29:02 PM »
India-China border standoff completes 9 months. No withdrawal by either side.
Indian sources claiming intercepts and reports suggests Chinese conscripts suffering tremendously in the cold. They have limited high altitude/winter experience.
India has 20 years high altitude experience from the Siachen glacier.


DougMacG

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Crafty_Dog

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« Reply #506 on: February 11, 2021, 06:40:58 PM »
Deal on the Himalayas. India and China reached yet another agreement on pulling back troops from the Line of Actual Control, the two countries’ tense de facto Himalayan border. The unforgiving topography of the area limits the potential for escalation, but also perpetuates low-level instability. Periodic flare-ups will continue so long as both sides continue infrastructure development near the contested zones – and so long as China has a strategic interest in keeping India focused on the front rather than its maritime domain.

DougMacG

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Re: GPF, India China border
« Reply #507 on: February 11, 2021, 06:55:45 PM »
"...and so long as China has a strategic interest in keeping India focused on the front rather than its maritime domain."

 - Funny that I thought the exact opposite, China wants to focus on its other front.

Wouldn't you think that conflict with China increases India's interest in militarizing its navy?
-------------------------
Aug 2020:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1329579/india-china-latest-indian-navy-warship-ladakh-clash-world-war-3
India deploys warship to South China Sea in warning to Beijing
INDIA has deployed a warship to the South China Sea following the bloody clash with Beijing in the Ladakh region.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #508 on: February 11, 2021, 08:39:10 PM »
The China initiated aggression on the Indian border, did not pay any dividends to them. No gain in territory, turned public opinion in India against China, lost a ton of contracts and business in India. India came closer to the US and Quad countries, India raised military spending, updated a lot of weapons, redoubled infrastructure spending at the border, increased maritime security and updated the Andaman Nicobar island commands etc. Finally, they are now forced to eat humble pie and start the withdrawal first, followed by the Indian side.

Looks like they overestimated their strengths and realized,  a 2 front war with India and Taiwan was a no-win situation.
India is fully aware of its maritime strengths in the Indian Ocean, it just choses to not flex in that area. Were a mountain war to start, India could put pressure on the Malacca Straights and choke Chinese traffic. China has a lot of money, but even they would not have the resources to maintain their 1000 + mile long supply lines to the Ladakh region.

G M

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How to contain China w Xi-Den in the White House
« Reply #509 on: February 11, 2021, 09:20:00 PM »
How to contain the PRC while Xi-Den occupies the White House

1. India, Australia and Japan formally recognize the Republic of China and sign a mutual defense treaty.

2. India helps the ROC (Taiwan) become a nuclear power. No need for ICBMs, tactical nukes to incinerate an invasion fleet and return fire to the PRC is all that is required.

3. Japan can position JSDF assets in the ROC and help with air defense missions.

4. Australian forces can use decades of war fighting experience to train up ROC troops (Foreign Internal Defense).

Protecting India, Japan and Australia (And the greater Asia-Pacific) from PRC aggression starts at the shores of Taiwan.

« Last Edit: February 11, 2021, 10:09:42 PM by Crafty_Dog »

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #510 on: February 12, 2021, 06:16:46 AM »
India does not have the financial or military heft to support Taiwan in this way. India does not even teach Pak a serious lesson, let alone China. There is a defensive mindset in India, does not want to spend on weapons...development is more important..yada yada..The question is why is the world's sole super power not doing any of this ?.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #511 on: February 12, 2021, 06:30:55 AM »
Because our President in on the Chinese payroll and he got into office thanks to the censorship of the Goolag Oligopoly allies of the Chi Coms?

DougMacG

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #512 on: February 12, 2021, 08:09:10 AM »
ya: "India does not have the financial or military heft to support Taiwan in this way. India does not even teach Pak a serious lesson, let alone China. There is a defensive mindset in India, does not want to spend on weapons..."

  - All true but I wonder if India's mindset about defense will be expanding given the latest standoff with China, the growing ambition and military capabilities of PRC, and the loss of ally Trump in the US.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #513 on: February 12, 2021, 09:39:28 AM »
Yes, a new emphasis on increased military spending and preparedness is visible. As soon as China calms down, military spending will turn down. Having said that it is clear, that India will not back down due to a threat of military aggression from China. China knows, that they would have suffered great pain, in any war on the Indo-China border, which is why they were forced to sheepishly  pullback their tanks first.

Like in a B movie western, China will be back again, perhaps after they have settled the Taiwan issue.

G M

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #514 on: February 12, 2021, 01:25:22 PM »
India does not have the financial or military heft to support Taiwan in this way. India does not even teach Pak a serious lesson, let alone China. There is a defensive mindset in India, does not want to spend on weapons...development is more important..yada yada..The question is why is the world's sole super power not doing any of this ?.

All Taiwan needs is the expertise. Taiwan already has nuclear power plants and the intellectual horsepower. It wouldn't be difficult.

G M

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #515 on: February 12, 2021, 01:26:41 PM »
Yes, a new emphasis on increased military spending and preparedness is visible. As soon as China calms down, military spending will turn down. Having said that it is clear, that India will not back down due to a threat of military aggression from China. China knows, that they would have suffered great pain, in any war on the Indo-China border, which is why they were forced to sheepishly  pullback their tanks first.

Like in a B movie western, China will be back again, perhaps after they have settled the Taiwan issue.

Yes. They will push until they hit resistance. Then wait and try again.

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: China dismantling in the Himalayas?
« Reply #516 on: February 15, 2021, 02:01:48 PM »
Deconstruction in the Himalayas. China is reportedly dismantling a bunch of military infrastructure in the part of the Himalayas where Beijing and New Delhi recently agreed to pull back troops. According to Indian media, Chinese troops have taken apart a helipad, a jetty and several structures, including observation posts.


ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #517 on: February 15, 2021, 04:37:36 PM »
The Chinese soldiers are in a hurry to go back to their Oxygen enriched barracks and eat Chicken Kung pao and humble pie. :-D The disengagement is going fine so far. The agreement was to take apart all construction in the region of the Pangong Tso lake bank since April 2020, when they started their intrusions.

Interestingly India's last outpost is just before finger 4 see ITBP post in picture, from there to finger 4 there is no road and its just a single file walk way carved into the mountainside. India's claim line is till finger 8 and the Chinese have a post just after F8  called Sirijap. Chinese claim line is till F4. During the Kargil war with Pak, India moved away its forces and could not afford to raise objections to Chinese motorable road building from finger 8 to finger 4. As a result of that, Indians patrol from Finger 4 to 8 by foot, whereas the Chinese could just cruise in their humvees. Since April 2020, they were not allowing Indian patrols beyond the narrow ledge after Finger 4. Now they have had to remove the jetty as well as other posts they had created in the fingers region. The region between F4-8, will not be patrolled by both sides for the present.

« Last Edit: February 15, 2021, 04:45:00 PM by ya »

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #518 on: February 19, 2021, 04:27:00 AM »
China is finally acknowledging some casualties, offering medals to 5 killed in the Galwan barbaric attack incident. Indian army general says Chinese casualties were 2x Indian casualties (around 45) Lots of meltdown in Chinese media, Indian media talking about China running away from the battlefield in Ladakh !

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: India's Trump Card Against China
« Reply #519 on: April 13, 2021, 05:00:39 AM »
April 13, 2021
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India’s Trump Card Against China
Moving into the spotlight is the strategically invaluable Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
By: Phillip Orchard

Despite its enormous potential, India is by no means an inevitable counterweight to Chinese ambitions in the Indian Ocean. The country's immense domestic needs and its preoccupation with land-based threats have prevented it from turning its attention fully to the maritime realm. And the more China races ahead with its breakneck military expansion, the harder it will be for India to catch up.

But it's a mistake to look at Indian and Chinese maritime capabilities as an apples-to-apples comparison. India doesn't need to match China destroyer for destroyer or missile for missile because India has some extraordinary geographic advantages in its favor – ones that also happen to make it particularly attractive as a partner with other powers in the region. And the strategically invaluable Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India's great trump card in its intensifying competition with China, is moving into the spotlight.

India's Point of View

For a country with more than 4,500 miles (7,200 kilometers) of coastline, India has never been particularly ambitious in the maritime sphere. This is, in part, because for much of its history it didn’t have much reason to be. Geographically, India is protected by the near-impenetrable Himalayas to its north, harsh subtropical regions to its east and deserts to the west. Its long coastline makes it vulnerable to seaborne threats, sure, but few powers have ever been capable of exploiting this vulnerability. Buffered by the vast waters of the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the open ocean, India is blessed with abundant strategic depth when it comes to naval threats. And at any rate, any invading power would confront India’s demographic immensity, which makes direct subjugation by force nearly impossible.

That outside powers have dominated the subcontinent in centuries past is a result mainly of its internal divisions. Its primary occupiers – various Muslim dynasties from the 11th century to the 18th century and the Europeans shortly thereafter – succeeded because they managed to turn India against itself, exploiting the competition among different factions and power centers to cultivate coalitions of collaborators who would support their largely commercial objections.

As a result, India has generally focused inward since it became independent. Its viability as a modern nation-state has depended on its governments’ ability to manage internal divisions. External geopolitics, with the exceptions of the periodic blowups with Pakistan and occasional border clashes with China, took a back seat to more immediate concerns. But the demands of this endeavor are changing, as is India’s broader strategic environment, forcing New Delhi to look increasingly to the far seas.

Its most vital lifelines flow from the west. To fuel growth and development, India’s economic interests have expanded far beyond the subcontinent. The country has well over a billion mouths to feed, and sustaining the level of economic growth and modernization necessary to support this population has given India a voracious appetite for commodity imports such as energy. In 2019, around 47 percent of the total energy India consumed came from imports, including more than 80 percent of its oil supplies. As a result, the country has been quickly expanding its naval presence around critical chokepoints near the Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa – waters known to be teeming with pirates, rebels and explosive risks rooted in Middle Eastern rivalries.

Indian interests in eastbound sea lanes are growing too as the country seeks to boost its status as a manufacturing and export power. Already, around 40 percent of India’s trade passes through the turbulent waters of the Strait of Malacca, which has plenty of pirates of its own – and, more concerning for India, Chinese ambition. As China moves to address its own strategic concerns to the east, secondary issues to its southwest are becoming more important, making India more of a potential threat, however unwittingly, and vice versa. China needs to find ways to bypass chokepoints in the East and South China seas, so it needs to build deep-water ports, pipelines and rail lines in India’s backyard. And to prepare for a potential conflict that blocks its maritime chokepoints, it also needs to develop naval forces to keep its backup outlets open and counter enemy forces coming from the west – an effort that will require a network of bases and logistics facilities on India’s periphery to support them.

Thus, India now has good reason to fear both Chinese encirclement and Chinese domination of more distant waters on which India increasingly relies. And this means India now has very good reason to invest considerably more in developing the capabilities to secure trade routes and sustain the regional balance of power with China.

But India has had a hard time shifting resources from its army and air force to the navy. While it’s been touting grand plans for a 200-ship navy by 2027 (up from 130 today) and quietly laying the groundwork for its own “string of pearls” in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, the navy still received just 15 percent of last year’s budget, compared with 23 percent for the air force and 56 percent for the army (the bulk of which goes to pensions). The navy’s share of the pie is actually down from 18 percent in 2012. India's struggle to shift focus to the maritime realm might be one motivator behind China's moves in the Himalayas and with Pakistan. The more India stays bogged down in conflicts on land, in other words, the less it can shift focus to the sea.

The Metal Chain

China has little reason to fear India as a major threat to its interests in, say, the South China Sea or around Taiwan. But India doesn't need to achieve military parity with China to become a problem. It simply needs to leverage its geographic advantages and the growing interest in cooperation from external powers like the U.S. This puts the spotlight squarely on the strategic godsend that are India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands.


(click to enlarge)

The archipelago, featuring some 572 islands (just 38 of them inhabited) stretches from just 100 miles north of the northern tip of Indonesia's Sumatra island through the heart of the Andaman Sea toward Myanmar. The islands are, in effect, the gateway to the Strait of Malacca. In the view of Chinese defense planners, the more apt metaphor for the islands is a “metal chain.”

For India, developing the capabilities needed to threaten Chinese access to Malacca from the Indian mainland would be difficult and expensive, requiring rapid leaps forward in its submarine, aircraft carrier, air force and missile programs, as well as in India’s military logistics and surveillance capabilities. Threatening Chinese access to Malacca from the Andaman and Nicobars is more straightforward. The archipelago is the proverbial “unsinkable aircraft carrier.” Indian bases there are ideally placed for conducting surveillance operations, deploying anti-ship missiles and radar stations, stationing supply depots, refueling fighter planes, and so forth.

The islands, moreover, make India immediately attractive as a partner for powers like the U.S. that already have the capabilities to maximize their strategic value – something that could allow India to keep China at bay without breaking the bank by trying to match China’s spending on the People's Liberation Army. India’s growing ties with Australia are particularly notable in this regard, given how Australia's Cocos Islands could play a similar role in blocking Chinese egress through the Sunda and Lombok straits. The Andaman and Nicobars also could facilitate deeper military cooperation with Southeast Asian countries that historically are leery of provoking China without the ability to defend themselves. In 2018, India and Indonesia reached a tentative reciprocal access agreement giving India access to a port on the Indonesian island of Sabang, located just southeast of the southernmost Andaman and Nicobar island.

India, though, is still in the early stages of modernizing the military infrastructure enough to maximize their strategic value. At present, the islands are home to seven air and naval bases. But India began a series of much-needed improvements – for example, lengthening runways to be able to handle fighter jets or long-range reconnaissance aircraft and expanding port infrastructure to handle large warships – only over the past few years. India has also been somewhat reluctant to open up the islands to foreign partners. Reciprocal access agreements it signed with the U.S., France, Japan and Singapore in recent years, for example, reportedly did not include the Andaman and Nicobars.

But there's been a renewed sense of urgency in New Delhi to tap into the islands’ strategic potential more effectively. At the height of the crisis in the Himalayas last summer, there were several calls in Indian media to put the Andaman and Nicobars to work, and India subsequently held naval exercises around the islands to signal to China that aggression in the Himalayas could backfire in ways that could truly hurt China. In August, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi deemed the islands’ development a strategic priority and announced a new development plan. The same month, India announced the completion of a submarine optical fiber connectivity project in the area. In October, a U.S. long-range sub hunter became the first U.S. military aircraft to make a refueling pitstop. In December, India test-launched supersonic anti-ship Brahmos missiles from the islands. In March, Japan announced a $36 million grant for the development of energy storage systems on South Andaman.

Nothing will happen quickly. India's budgetary problems remain, and the pandemic isn't going to help. It's leery of giving China any more reason to try to militarize one of its Belt and Road ports on India's doorstep. There's some evidence that Indonesia and, in particular, Malaysia aren't exactly thrilled about the trajectory toward militarization of the Strait of Malacca, and India has an interest in handling Southeast Asian suspicions carefully. And India, in general, is still embracing the concept of strategic alignment with outside powers – something it historically has typically eschewed – only slowly.

Even so, on the question of whether and just how much India will emerge as a major player in the burgeoning competition over the Indo-Pacific, the Andaman and Nicobars are the center of gravity. Watch them closely.

Crafty_Dog

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ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #521 on: June 15, 2021, 05:49:47 PM »
Some may remember the Galwan incident where the Chinese treacherously attacked Indian troops with barbaric weapons. The Chinese hid their casualties. Now more details are coming out.

https://chanakyaforum.com/when-the-hunters-became-the-hunted-the-galwan-valour/

Crafty_Dog

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D1: Development on the border India-China
« Reply #522 on: July 04, 2021, 02:08:33 PM »
China has added 35,000 troops to its disputed border region with India over the past 12 months, including an HQ-9 air defense system, according to Indian intelligence and military officials, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday from New Delhi.

Why this matters: "Those moves have been matched by India, which has sent tens of thousands of its own troops and advanced artillery to the region, the officials said." Though they did not say if, like China, India has "dug underground bunkers and tunnels" for its troops.

Bigger picture: "India and China have held about a dozen rounds of talks between military and diplomatic officials since the confrontation last year in an effort to de-escalate tensions. Those talks led to the pullback of troops from both sides at one friction point at Pangong Tso, a glacial lake at an altitude of about 14,000 feet." But both countries are still very keen on maintaining a foothold in the region. Read on, here.

Crafty_Dog

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ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #524 on: July 08, 2021, 05:57:35 PM »
To me, it appears that China is preparing for war with Taiwan. If that happens, they dont want India to take advantage of the situation and claw back territory and hence they are upping their defenses.

ccp

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From nuclear weapons thread posted here too
« Reply #525 on: July 09, 2021, 04:22:37 AM »
".New satellite images published recently reveal that China is building more than 100 new nuclear missile silos in its western desert."

will this not lead to India following suit?

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #526 on: July 10, 2021, 08:21:46 AM »
Not sure how accurate that news it..I have seen some alternate interpretations of that. Can we be sure that those missiles are for India ?. They would hit Indian population centers, at which point India will respond by hitting Chinese cities. Could it be they are not for use against India...

Crafty_Dog

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #527 on: July 10, 2021, 09:42:39 AM »
With the new hypersonic technology , , ,

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: India-China- Himalayas
« Reply #528 on: July 19, 2021, 12:45:17 PM »

Competition over the Himalayas. China is reportedly building a new fighter aircraft base near the so-called Line of Actual Control, the disputed de facto border in the Himalayas between China and India. The Indians, for their part, reportedly have plans for as many as four airports and 37 helipads in the westernmost parts of the disputed region.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #529 on: July 19, 2021, 07:02:43 PM »
China realized that they could not win over India, in the last standoff. They are now correcting their weaknesses and will try again.