Author Topic: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold  (Read 594585 times)

ya

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Please see projected baseline  monthly returns for BTC. We are in the 5th epoch. Note the Standard Deviation too. The full article can be read here. BTC follows the power law, will post it  later. Per the article, the CAGR is 35 %/year for the next 4 years. This jives with the calculator that I posted earlier. https://substack.com/home/post/p-144303111

« Last Edit: May 05, 2024, 06:08:00 AM by ya »

DougMacG

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Video at link.  THIS is the President's chief 'economic' adviser, (he holds a degree in social work).  Asked the simplest of questions. [We spend 40% more than we take in.]  We print money, why do we borrow at all?

This is sort of the, mommy where do babies come from question.

https://twitter.com/FindingMoneyDoc/status/1786050601236779078

Would you put all your trust and the full faith and credit of the United States in the hands of this man?

He doesn't need a degree in economics because there really isn't that 6pmmuch to learn??

He refers to MMT, which seems to be the groundwork for no constraints spending:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_monetary_theory

Source video:  https://findingmoneyfilm.com/
« Last Edit: May 05, 2024, 07:01:12 AM by DougMacG »

ccp

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child: where does money come from ?
« Reply #3002 on: May 05, 2024, 06:13:49 AM »
Money doesn't grow on trees.

Bernstein:

Money is made on government printing presses.  (falsely!)

ya

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ya

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Now that April is over, there are multiple reports of this fund or that adding BTC to their portfolios. The most interesting one is below from Europe. These UCIT funds are 12 Trillion Euros in assets, even a percentage or two, could have massive effects. HK is discussing with China to allow mainland chinese to buy BTC ETF's. Things are moving, just slowly.

https://twitter.com/paddi_hansen/status/1788877780215591137

ccp

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Trump is coming around to BTC
« Reply #3006 on: May 10, 2024, 05:22:01 AM »
" Speaking to Fox News ahead of the state's Republican Primary, Trump explained that "many people are embracing" Bitcoin and he's "seeing people wanting to pay [with] Bitcoin," and that he can "live with it one way or the other."

 :-D

Body-by-Guinness

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Inflation: The Gift that Keeps Giving
« Reply #3007 on: May 13, 2024, 04:17:06 PM »
The Biden admin sure if fond of self-inflicted wounds, with inflation caused by proliferate spending serving as a case in point:

https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2024/05/13/how-dare-you-consumers-believe-their-own-lyin-eyes-instead-of-bls-gimmicks-n4928995

Body-by-Guinness

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Restaurant Apocalypse
« Reply #3008 on: May 13, 2024, 08:51:06 PM »
« Last Edit: May 14, 2024, 08:48:36 AM by Body-by-Guinness »

Crafty_Dog

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BBG:  A good article, but to keep this thread focused but may I suggest the "Political Economics" as a good "catch all" thread.

Body-by-Guinness

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BBG:  A good article, but to keep this thread focused but may I suggest the "Political Economics" as a good "catch all" thread.

Done, though inflation is the prime mover in the piece, hence placing the post here.

ya

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Paul Ryan on Stablecoins. This makes sense.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1790540747466223921

At this time the US is concerned that many bond auctions are not going well, i.e. people are not buying US treasuries. Many countries like China are selling, Japan wants to sell, and others are worried about holding, because the US govt can confiscate them. Yet the more money we print (which is necessary to pay off our debt in cheaper dollars), the more the value of the $ declines and people want to buy less US $/treasuries.

The USDT (Tether) stable coin is most popular because it is backed by US Treasuries, and that has been audited. USDT can be printed at will, but the twist here is that they buy an equal number of US Treasuries. tether has now become one of the very large holders of US treasuries (i.e. a new demand source), it is international and not a US company. 1 USDT=1 US$, this makes it very useful for purchasing crypto, particularly outside the US as the exchange risk of the $ declining in local currency is no longer there. USDT can also be moved across crypto exchanges very easily, while the $ is cumbersome with reporting requirements and delays.

Paul Ryan is pointing out a new demand source worth Trillions, who will buy US Treasuries, there are other stable coins too, some from the US (less popular). this solves the immediate problem of the US finding buyers of Treasuries. I think this is a great source of new demand, but ultimately the US will overprint and no one will buy USDT! either. At that time, the US will be ready to move to a Bitcoin Standard, which cannot be overprinted. I think things are moving along well.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2024, 05:01:06 AM by ya »

ya

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ya

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"Now that the pension fund manager of the State of Wisconsin has disclosed its $162m #Bitcoin allocation, it's only a matter of time before every single state pension fund makes the same move.

Then every university endowment.
Every family office.
Every wealth manager.
Fund manager.
Every corporate treasury."

Crafty_Dog

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I didn't quite follow PR's discussion of Stablecoins.

ya

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We had discussed that after April, the filings would show who's buying BTC ETF's.

Here's a thread by Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg

https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1790885903084216627

ya

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I didn't quite follow PR's discussion of Stablecoins.

See above

ya

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Watch the inflows. Things are moving again


Crafty_Dog

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BTC’s big new HODLer is … Wisconsin?!

After a week of lower volatility, crypto prices spiked on Wednesday as new U.S. consumer price index (CPI) figures showed inflation easing slightly. One key index, “core inflation,” which removes food and energy costs, hit its lowest rate since April 2021.

As markets of all kinds got a boost, BTC climbed toward $65,000 and ETH approached $3,000.

Meanwhile, the BTC ETF category saw weekly inflows return for the first time in a month and futures markets continue to suggest a bullish path for BTC, with many traders betting on a new all-time high north of $75,000 by the end of June.

Here are three more crypto stories to know this week.

1. Wisconsin reveals $160 million crypto portfolio

The spot BTC ETFs that began trading in January were created in part to make crypto a more viable option for big-money institutional investors like pension funds.

According to a new SEC filing, that promise is already coming true. The State of Wisconsin Investment Board — which manages state-employee retirement funds among other assets — disclosed that as of the end of March, it held around $160 million in spot BTC ETFs (split between BlackRock’s and Grayscale’s funds).

Those weren’t the board’s only crypto-related investments. According to the Block, “shares of other cryptocurrency firms such as Coinbase, Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, Block, Cipher Mining, Cleanspark and MicroStrategy were also in the Board's portfolio.” 

Follow the leader... According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, other big institutional investors are likely to follow in Wisconsin’s footsteps. “Normally you don't get these big fish institutions … for a year or so (when the ETF gets more liquidity),” he noted, “but as we've seen these are no ordinary launches. Good sign, expect more, as institutions tend to move in herds.”

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Crypto PACs
« Reply #3019 on: May 21, 2024, 10:45:40 AM »


The Crypto Industry Is Trying to Elect Political Allies. The Stakes Couldn’t Be Higher.
Coinbase, Kraken and others are fighting for survival after a regulatory crackdown

ALEXANDRA CITRIN-SAFADI/WSJ; ISTOCK
By Caitlin Ostroff and Vicky Ge Huang
May 21, 2024 8:00 am ET




Crypto companies are fighting for survival after a regulatory crackdown. Their latest strategy: spending big on this year’s elections.

The industry has amassed a formidable war chest and is working to elect politicians it sees as allies and defeat those who are critical. A trio of super political-action committees has together raised more than $85 million, one of the largest amounts among PACs engaged in the 2024 elections.

Fairshake, along with two affiliated super PACs, raised the funds from an industry A-list, including crypto exchange Coinbase COIN 1.18%increase; green up pointing triangle Global and Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest. The push is being powered by a surge in crypto prices.

“This is the first time we’ve really had all the pieces in place,” said Kristin Smith, chief executive of the Blockchain Association, an industry group.


Kristin Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association. PHOTO: ERIC LEE/BLOOMBERG NEWS
Wealthy investors and big companies have long used campaign donations and lobbyists to win influence in Washington. What sets the crypto industry’s push apart this year is that its ability to keep operating in the U.S. is at stake. With regulators filing civil lawsuits alleging that the industry is running afoul of securities laws and prosecutors unsealing criminal indictments, some companies have been looking overseas for growth or relocating entirely.

Earlier this month, former President Donald Trump was asked what he would do if re-elected to stop crypto companies from leaving the U.S.

“If we are going to embrace it, then we have to let them be here,” Trump said in support of the industry at Mar-a-Lago, his social club and part-time residence in Florida.

Fairshake hasn’t yet weighed in on the presidential election.


Previous attempts by crypto advocates to influence elections haven’t been as well-funded. In 2022, FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried contributed to a PAC that ultimately raised $12 million. A federal judge sentenced Bankman-Fried to a quarter-century in prison on several counts of fraud earlier this year.

This cycle is different. The industry has banded together after a string of lawsuits from the Securities and Exchange Commission. Crypto firms have brought on more lobbyists, working to convince lawmakers that Bankman-Fried’s FTX isn’t indicative of the industry.

Fairshake, launched late last year, has been leading the efforts. The group brings together the major players in crypto, including the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, venture-capital firm Andreessen Horowitz and stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Financial.

The efforts so far have focused on Congress. The industry is supporting legislation that would regulate issuers of stablecoins, or dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies, which make it easier to trade in and out of the market. The legislation would set rules for issuers, including requiring that tokens are completely backed by reserves.


Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase Global, spoke at a Stand With Crypto rally in March. PHOTO: MARK ABRAMSON/BLOOMBERG NEWS
Fairshake built its war chest through both cash and cryptocurrency donations. Phil Potter, the former chief strategy officer at crypto exchange Bitfinex, donated 33 bitcoins to the PAC last summer, equivalent to about $1 million. Those tokens were sold for cash, a Fairshake spokesman said.

To date, Fairshake said it has spent $25 million in the current election cycle. Earlier this year, it unleashed its biggest spending spree to date, aimed at defeating Katie Porter, a California congresswoman who launched a Senate bid. The group deployed $10 million on ads against Porter, a beloved figure among many liberals and a critic of how much energy consumption bitcoin requires.

The ads by Fairshake focused on topics that resonate with voters more widely, claiming Porter took cash from “big banks, big pharma and big oil,” not on Porter’s crypto stance. Porter later lost the primary. 

Porter said that Fairshake isn’t engaging in genuine dialogue with candidates, and that the group is just trying to scare elected leaders into accepting their agenda.

It is unclear to what degree Fairshake’s efforts affected the outcome of the race. But the crypto industry is increasingly open about its desire to influence campaigns.

Stand With Crypto, a nonprofit spun off from Coinbase, recently announced the creation of its affiliated PAC. It also grades various politicians. President Biden, whose administration has waged a crackdown on crypto, got an “F.”

Meanwhile, presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. won better marks after calling crypto a “bulwark against government and corporate expansion” at a conference last year. His grade from the group: an “A.”

DougMacG

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Fed Crypto: House votes to block Federal Reserve digital currency
« Reply #3020 on: May 24, 2024, 01:12:54 PM »
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/house-votes-block-federal-reserve-from-creating-own-digital-currency

I'm proud of Tom Emmer (R-MN) for his role in this.

I'm not sure what the legal impact is of having one chamber pass it.


Body-by-Guinness

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What 2024 Should be About
« Reply #3022 on: May 30, 2024, 05:20:12 PM »

What the Presidential Campaign Should Really Be About
America is on a suicidal fiscal and monetary trajectory.
May 30, 2024
By ALVARO VARGAS LLOSA

Also published in The Washington Times Thu. May 30, 2024
The latest U.S. economic data pours cold water on the optimists who predicted robust economic growth in the first quarter of 2024 and an inflation rate approaching 2%, which would encourage the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.

Instead, the economy grew by just 1.6% from a year ago, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, less than half the rate of the previous quarter, and inflation, as measured by a gauge preferred by the Federal Reserve, remained unacceptably high.

To make matters worse, and despite the recurring claims of the Biden administration that hundreds of thousands of jobs are being “created,” full-time employment has declined significantly since June 2023; only part-time jobs have increased—a predictable result when politicians mandate significant wage increases for the least-skilled workers regardless of productivity.

These figures, bad as they are, come nowhere near the truth regarding the suicidal fiscal and monetary trajectory on which the United States finds itself—reason enough for the economy to be the overriding issue of the presidential campaign.

How did we get here? It has something to do with what Isaiah Berlin, one of the great political philosophers of the 20th century, believed: that not all values and objectives are compatible with each other, and that the pursuit of some goals requires the sacrifice of others. In short, you can’t have it all.

You cannot have a fiscally restrained government and a planetary empire at the same time. You cannot have fiscal discipline and a permanent, ever-growing welfare state. You cannot have a steadily improving standard of living and a central bank that prints money to fund the growth of government. You cannot fight wars and cut taxes. You cannot lower taxes and not reduce spending when what you spend exceeds what you take in. You cannot have a low savings rate and high investment levels that increase productivity.

Democrats and Republicans both bear responsibility for what is happening. The Democrats from time to time pay lip service to limited government, but they created the welfare state under Presidents Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson, and with the exception of one short period during the Clinton administration, they continue to fuel its expansion.

As for the Republicans, they say they believe in small government, but it was Republican President Richard Nixon who introduced the Consumer Product Safety Commission, Environmental Protection Agency, Occupational Safety and Health Administration, and several other regulatory agencies that hold sway over so many economic decisions. Republicans have also done little to tame the welfare state, and they have joined their Democratic colleagues in feeding the post World War II “warfare state”: always, of course, in the national interest.

So, what we have is both a welfare state and a warfare state that are incompatible with limited government. The result is a looming financial crisis that paints an ominous picture of the future.

Last year’s fiscal deficit was the largest ever if we set aside the unprecedented gush in spending as the pandemic took hold. Inflation seems entrenched, haunting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who prematurely had announced that the Fed likely would cut interest rates soon.

But the worst still lies ahead. When President Harry Truman left office after the Korean War, federal spending accounted for 18.5% of gross domestic product, the measure of the economy. Now, it’s more than 32%.

The defense budget was about $400 billion (in current dollars) at the end of the Carter administration; now it’s close to $900 billion.

The federal debt amounts to $34 trillion, about 120% of GDP. If we include Social Security and Medicare commitments, total liabilities top $200 trillion, about twice the size of the global economy.

And there’s more. Since 1971, when Nixon ended what was left of the gold standard, the dollar has lost more than 90% of its value. Since 2000, it has plummeted by 45%. No wonder demagogic populism and nationalism are poisoning U.S. society and politics.

I don’t know that any of this is reversible. But I do know that no issue should be more central to the presidential campaign. Because when large empires pursue incompatible goals, as the United States has been doing for decades now, they inevitably decline—and ultimately collapse.

 
ALVARO VARGAS LLOSA is a Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute.

https://www.independent.org/news/article.asp?id=14944

Crafty_Dog

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Federal spending is 32% of GDP?!?!?!?

ccp

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Federal spending is 32% of GDP?!?!?!?

The LEFT:

Federal spending is 32% of GDP?!?!?!?

and instead :


The US economy is the strongest in the World !!!!!!!!

[even better than Haiti's.]

DougMacG

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Federal spending is 32% of GDP?!?!?!?

Spending is WAY out of control, but I don't think that number is right.
Numbers I can find:

Fiscal Year 2023
GDP 27T
Revenues 4.44T
Spending 6.13T  (38% greater than revenues)
Deficit 1.7T
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/government-revenue/

Total government spending in FY2023 is estimated to be around $10.55 trillion:
Federal Government Spending: $6.94 trillion
State Government Spending: $2.29 trillion
Local Government Spending: $2.41 trillion
Total Government Spending: $10.55 trillion    = 38% of GDP
https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/total

Crafty_Dog

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That is helpful but two distinct numbers for Fed spending are given.

I'm on the road right now; would someone be so kind as to do the math for Fed spending as a % of GDP?

DougMacG

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Using the first set of numbers, that percentage is 23%. Federal spending as a percentage of GDP.

I have no idea why numbers from different sources give different answers.

I think these were all quoted as fiscal year 2023, rear view mirror accounting. Still, some could be excellent some estimates. I suppose there's no perfect way of knowing GDP, it's always an estimate. I can't believe there's no exact way of knowing Federal spending.

One more number, Federal interest expense went up 152% under President Biden. (CTUP)
« Last Edit: May 31, 2024, 01:20:12 PM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Thank you.

And what % of revenues is interest on the debt?

DougMacG

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Thank you.

And what % of revenues is interest on the debt?

Roughly 1 trillion out of 27 trillion, or approaching 4% of gdp.

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Dollar
« Reply #3030 on: June 04, 2024, 04:55:13 AM »
The Dollar Is at Its Strongest Since the 1980s. Can It Last?
The greenback is historically very expensive amid a recovery in global growth and a fraught election campaign
By
Jon Sindreu
Follow
June 4, 2024 5:01 am ET





Gift unlocked article

Listen

(5 min)



The U.S. dollar has defied analysts’ expectations and appreciated again this year relative to a basket of other currencies. PHOTO: AMR ABDALLAH DALSH/REUTERS
For a decade now, currency markets have been ruled by the strengthening dollar. But no kingdom lasts forever.

Contrary to what many on Wall Street expected, the U.S. dollar has gotten a fresh wind this year, as bumpy inflation data has prompted investors to dial back bets on rate cuts.

Measured against other currencies, the greenback is still below the recent 2022 peak when an aggressive Federal Reserve was raising interest rates. But it remains historically expensive in inflation-adjusted terms—just 10% shy of the level at which Richard Nixon ended gold convertibility in 1971, for example, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. It hasn’t been so consistently strong since the 1980s when the Fed was headed by Paul Volcker, the epitome of the hawkish central banker.

Pandemic start
Dot-com peak
Plaza Accord
End of gold convertibility
1965
'05
'10
'15
'20
'75
'70
'80
'85
'90
'95
2000
60
70
80
90
100
110
(100=Jan. 1964)
In 1985, the dollar rose so much that U.S. officials became worried about the blow it was dealing to domestic manufacturers. Famously, they agreed to coordinate its depreciation in a meeting with officials from Britain, Germany, France and Japan in the Plaza Hotel in New York. By 1988, it had lost a third of its real value.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS
Where do you think the dollar is headed? Join the conversation below.

Something similar could happen again on a smaller scale, particularly if Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November. His economic advisers have in the past advocated for a weaker greenback to narrow the U.S. trade deficit, especially relative to the yuan, which is currently under pressure as foreign investors flee low-yielding Chinese bonds.

Perhaps more important, economic growth is accelerating beyond America’s borders. This has historically provided the conditions for the greenback to weaken. Recent economic data suggests that the eurozone and Japan are finally turning up, and China’s recovery seems to be building momentum. Beijing is actively intervening to push up the yuan.

All this suggests it is a good time for dollar-based investors to think about shifting more money overseas.

A fall in the dollar usually greases the wheels of global growth. Roughly half of trade invoices and three-quarters of nonbank debt are denominated in dollars, which means that emerging nations in particular—those that struggle to borrow in their own currencies—get a boost whenever the U.S. currency cheapens.

Even if a weaker greenback is an effect of broadening economic growth rather than a cause, it remains a bullish signal for international stock markets, which have a greater percentage of so-called cyclical companies. European banks, which are on a tear, are a good example.

Overseas stocks haven’t experienced this tailwind much since the global financial crisis. As the dollar’s inflation-adjusted value has risen 35% since the end of 2009, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed markets outside of North America, has only returned about 200%, compared with roughly 500% for the S&P 500. In the only recent spell when the dollar was depressed, between 2020 and mid-2021, U.S. stocks bafflingly raced ahead even more, buoyed by technology giants reaping pandemic gains.

This has understandably conditioned investors to call it quits and just put all their eggs in the American basket.

To be sure, the dollar’s elevated real exchange rate compared with the past may be somewhat deceptive: Adjusting for inflation is tricky because most products aren’t traded across borders. When it comes to energy, which does have a huge impact, the U.S. has switched from being a net importer to a net exporter, thanks to the shale revolution of the 2010s.

Additionally, Washington’s recent turn to industrial policy has triggered a wave of foreign direct investment into the U.S. Economic theory also predicts that the recent tariffs imposed by Washington should push the currency up, and recent research backs this up to an extent.

History never repeats itself precisely, and investors shouldn’t be waiting for the monumental dollar selloff that followed the Plaza Accord. But neither should they assume the U.S. currency can rise forever.

ya

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James Lavish on Twitter, re: BTC

"Institutions will first add a *tiny* bit of #Bitcoin to select portfolios (as we are beginning to see). This is called toe-ing in to a trade. Then they will do enough research to learn that by adding a 1 to 5% allocation of #Bitcoin to traditional portfolios like the 60/40 over the last decade not only enhances absolute returns, but also raises the Sharpe Ratio (risk-adjusted returns) and only marginally increases drawdowns. It is at this point that they not only increase the first allocation to a full position, but they start adding #Bitcoin to other portfolios. First re-allocating capital from stocks and then from bonds and then both. And they will not be price sensitive like individual investors. They will just participate with the market volumes and buy. Then more institutions will wake up and come on board. Then many. Then most. Career risk will have transformed from owning #Bitcoin to not owning any.

Slowly. Then suddenly."

As a side note, BlackRock is doing just this and adding the BTC ETF even to Bond portfolios! and sprinkling it amongst equity portfolios.

ya

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Watch # 4

ya

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Watch the ETF flows


Crafty_Dog

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Body-by-Guinness

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Unrealized Losses Exceeding Reserves?
« Reply #3035 on: June 05, 2024, 06:50:27 PM »
I don’t have the fiscal chops to evaluate these findings, but have found other posts of this author to be accurate:

Well That’s Not Good. – Unrealized Losses Exceeding Reserves – Mortgages & CRE
Posted on 5 June 2024 by E.M.Smith
Banks in total have $1.40 of “reserves” for every $1 of delinquent CRE Commercial Real Estate Loans. Essentially they have only 40 ¢ of reserves for all the rest of their loans. That’s close to a liquidity issue.

Lack of liquidity means not a lot off new loans, so not a lot off new profits. New loans dropping.

Add to that the fact that “consumers” are already up to their eyeballs in debt and can’t carry any more… season with the Fed having lousy sales of U.S. Treasuries (due to massive $Trillions of debt AND huge deficits… so some Fed Bond Auctions have gone “very poorly”…)

Businesses are abandoning office buildings, and some (like BurgerFi) are going out of business due to lack of profits from Blue State Stupid minimum wage laws… So commercial RE is under a LOT of pressure.

All of this is pushing up interest rates, making the problems of lenders and borrowers even worse.

So, as of now, “reserves” at JPMorgan Chase, BofAA, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are are at 90 ¢ for ever dollar of commercial realestate debt on which a borrower is at least 30 days late.

Basically, they do not have enough reserves to cover their “in trouble” or “late” borrowers… for CRE. See minute 7;30+ of the video below.


That’s a problem.

So, do you expect business to improve in this massive Federal Debt Bubble? Do you expect profits to businesses to improve with California (and other “blue” States?) making massive Minimum Wage Hikes? ($20 for “fast food” workers, and then they had to do $25 for “health workers” since flipping burgers is easier / more pleasant that changing bed pans and festering wound dressings…)

Or do you think that driving the economy into a giant ditch via Central Authority, and massive fuel cost hikes, is going to cause ever more business failures and ever more loan defaults? Eh?

Season with many commercial real estate folks (especially those in “retail stores”) abandoning places like San Francisco, New York City, and other Blue “mostly peaceful protest” and “Steal Under $1000 For Free!” cities…

Looks to me like “Bidenomics” is finally coming home to roost. Just in time for “The 5th Of November”… (“Remember, remember, this 5th of November, the lawfare and treason and plots”… E.M.S.)

So, FWIW, I’m on a “buy a chunk of gold & silver every month” plan. Dollar cost averaging into it. I hope to reach (maybe) 10% of net worth in a year (yeah, going very slow and fairly small, really). And yes, I’d likely be better off going at 2 to 3 times that rate. But I’m not interested in lighting up bonfires of alert lights… Besides, I’m also looking to buy (clear, not a loan) some added land, and other “stuff” too… so the “metals” are a minor part of the portfolio plan. Also, keep in mind, the last time “Progressive” leftists ran America into a ditch and FDR confiscated all the gold in the country… It could happen again. In that case, lead and brass might be harder to confiscate ;-)

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2024/06/05/well-thats-not-good-unrealized-losses-exceeding-reserves-mortgages-cre/

ya

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Speakers on

https://x.com/i/status/1798688246358249513

BTC ETF's bought 1 million BTC in 5 months, the remaining 1.3 million BTC will be issued (mined) over the next 100 years !. There is very limited supply and no one will sell, unless price moons. Bullish.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2024, 05:21:05 AM by ya »

Crafty_Dog

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FO: China stops buying gold for now
« Reply #3037 on: June 07, 2024, 10:01:51 AM »
China stopped buying gold in May after its latest 18-month buying spree. May also saw China buy 16% more copper year-over-year. (Gold has broken its all-time high numerous times over the last six months, and China buys in sprees. Considering the increase in copper, this is likely an adjustment to the material build-up rather than a cessation of it. – J.V.)

ya

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52% of Top US Hedge Funds Own Bitcoin ETFs
From small businesses to institutions, bitcoin’s adoption is on the rise across the board.


https://blog.river.com/52-of-top-us-hedge-funds-own-bitcoin-etfs/

ya

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Time to 1 mill per coin. 2028 upper bound, if there is a spike, but 2033 is quite certain, per the Power law. i.e. in 10 years


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Crafty_Dog

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chatter from a newsletter
« Reply #3041 on: June 09, 2024, 08:24:29 AM »
After breaking above $71,000 earlier in the day, the price of Bitcoin took a steep dive yesterday, simmering closer to $69,300 rolling into the weekend and up only 2.5% over the past seven days.

BTC traders also felt a pinch from a sudden increase in transaction fees, with the cost of a medium-priority transaction surpassing $34. While surges in interest in Bitcoin Ordinals and Runes were previously to blame, this time, it was the third-largest crypto exchange, OKX, picking Friday as the day to clean house.

ya

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ya

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The institutions are coming


Crafty_Dog

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Petro-dollars?
« Reply #3044 on: June 13, 2024, 01:35:59 AM »

ya

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This is another calculator based on the Power law, which BTC has been following so far. Seems to be the best model so far. The way it works is to input the number of BTC you own (eg B= 10) and holding period Y (say 5 yrs). The top line projects the total worth of your portfolio (3,523,318) and the second line, the daily gain ($ 2739).

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/x6px63g4qd

Crafty_Dog

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Paul Ryan (yes PR) Crypto could stave off US Debt Crisis
« Reply #3046 on: June 13, 2024, 04:37:21 PM »
Not sure I understand this , , ,

=============================

Crypto Could Stave Off a U.S. Debt Crisis
Stablecoins backed by dollars provide demand for U.S. public debt and a way to keep up with China.
By Paul D. Ryan
June 13, 2024 1:17 pm ET



The American experiment is being tested. Nowhere is this more evident than in the trajectory of the national debt. The U.S. is headed toward a predictable yet avoidable debt crisis. If nothing is done, the economy will stall while government promises of healthcare and retirement security will be broken. Cuts to national defense will put the country at risk.

With no fiscal solution in sight, the crisis is likely to start with a failed Treasury auction forcing an ugly surgery on the budget. As the economy contracts, the dollar will suffer a major confidence shock, further imperiling prospects for growth. The obvious answer is to deal with the root causes of the problem. Entitlement programs are driving the debt and require reform, but politicians can’t find the courage to do what needs to be done. The country thus proceeds down this perilous path. What can be done?

We might start by taking stablecoins seriously. According to the Treasury Department and DeFi Llama, a cryptocurrency analytics site, dollar-backed stablecoins are becoming an important net purchaser of U.S. government debt. If fiat-backed dollar stablecoin issuers were a country, it would sit just outside the top 10 in countries holding Treasurys—smaller than Hong Kong but larger than Saudi Arabia. If the sector continues to grow, stablecoins could become one of the largest purchasers of U.S. government debt and a reliable source of new demand.

Their emergence as a mechanism for promoting the dollar couldn’t be timelier. The U.S. benefits from the dollar’s status as the primary international reserve currency. Among the perks: cheap, reliable financing for fiscal spending and substantial influence over the global financial system. Most financial activities eventually flow through U.S. banks thanks to the dollar’s dominance. As the global economy becomes more digital and multipolar, the dollar’s primacy is constantly under threat.

China understands what’s happening. Financial authorities in Beijing have made digital currency a pillar of the country’s international-development strategy and foreign policy. The Chinese government is using physical and digital infrastructure investment in emerging markets, coupled with financial engineering, to embed the yuan in a network it can control to project influence. The U.S. can’t afford to sit idly as its largest international competitor taps latent demand for safe and convenient digital money. The framework for understanding how the dollar gets its power needs to be updated for a changing world.

Consider an example that highlights a driver of dollar dominance. Say a Japanese company sells a product or service to a customer in Wisconsin. What can the company do with the dollars it receives? Since the early 1970s, it could place them in the large, liquid Treasury market. The main attraction is that Treasury securities have the backing of the world’s most dynamic economy. U.S. government debt is, after all, a claim on the future output of America’s economy.

Setting aside the problems with growing U.S. government debt (of which there are many), the fact at Uncle Sam has been able to sell debt consistently on the international market, often at low rates, is evidence of something important: The rest of the world has an insatiable demand for dollars. There are signs, however, that the status quo could be changing—and fast.

Several nations that have historically been large buyers of U.S. debt, such as China and Saudi Arabia, are gradually retreating from the market. They are also increasingly looking for options for settling payments outside the dollar system. There is, meantime, growing risk that the U.S. government could soon experience a failed debt auction. Such an event would roil markets and severely undermine U.S. credibility.

If other countries are successful at bolstering their currencies’ influence while dumping Treasury debt, the U.S. will need to find new ways to make the dollar more attractive. Dollar-backed stablecoins are one answer.

Most stablecoins are held by investors in countries with weak economies and underlying institutions that are looking for “better” money. As Timothy G. Massad, a former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, recently described in a Brookings Institution research paper, stablecoins are analogous to eurodollars, the offshore dollar-denominated liabilities that turbocharged dollar pre-eminence during the Cold War.

Promoting dollar-backed stablecoins would follow a well-trodden path and offer clear near-term benefits. There would be an immediate, durable increase in demand for U.S. debt, which would reduce the risk of a failed debt auction and an attendant crisis. Unlike China’s digital financial infrastructure, dollar-backed stablecoins issued on public, permissionless blockchains come packaged with the deeply American values of freedom and openness.

A sound, predictable regulatory framework for stablecoins has bipartisan support in Congress and would help dramatically expand the use of digital dollars at a critical time. In an election year, given all the ugly politics to come, we sure could use a win.

Mr. Ryan served as House speaker, 2015-19. He is a member of Paradigm’s Policy Council and a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Crafty_Dog

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Pro Russian Blog on Petro Dollar rumors
« Reply #3047 on: June 14, 2024, 07:39:11 AM »
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/petrodollar-dead-rumors-swirl-as?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=145617656&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=z2120&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

This guy is definitely intriguing.   I have some serious friends who ask me to forward his stuff on Ukraine-- full of deep in the weeds military stuff as well as challenges to what we are told by our leaders and pravdas.